BuffChestmen
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Posts
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Posts posted by BuffChestmen
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Decent Dogs:
Jarry ML 4.160 @ Pinny
Mannarino ML 3.690 Pinny
Jarry is clay court player and ADM hasn't done much on clay. I don't think ADM likes the slow courts.
Isner is there for his appearance fee and Mannarino has points to protect.
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Nvm... as you were.
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5 hours ago, CzechPunter said:
Lucas Pouille to beat Alexei Popyrin at 1.52 with Pinnacle
Looks like an overreaction to me. Pouille isn't going to be as bad as Thiem and I still don't like Popyrin for all kinds of reasons. The crowd can carry him to a set, but Pouille should take the match in the end.
Popyrin +4 Game Spread 2.06 Pinny
Pouille hasn't been the same since the end of last years hard court season. He's amassed 100 UFE this tournament already. Could be a recipe for another upset imo.
Fritz +6.5 Game Spread 2.01 Pinny
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Top Spaniard Nadal @ 1.72 is nuts. It's a bit of a long wait to get your return but that's an amazing price for Nadal. I don't think performs like a top 5 this year but he'll be top 10 and there ain't no other Spaniard out there that's going to be top 10. Maybe even top 20.
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Querrey -1.5 @ 1.900 Pinnacle .5 unit
I think this line is too tight. Schwartzman finished last year strong and Querrey like he usually does but these court conditions heavily favor Querrey. He'll be tough to break and Schwartzman's ineffective 2nd serve is very vulnerable to a guy like Querrey.
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@CzechPunter like tepavec play. GL tomorrow.
- CzechPunter and higuys
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@CzechPunter Tailed you on Setkic... was broken early but brought er' back. Headin' to tiebreak. Let s get this
Play tomorrow
Opelka 1.961 2U Pinnacle
Opelka is going to be aiming to break into the top 100 next year. Pro attitude. Sandgren is a bit of a hopeful has-been and fools around quite a bit. Although he's talented, he doesn't have the mental toughness or maybe even desire to want to win. I think he'll get frustrated with not winning too many points on return and his little mental lapses will lose him service games.
- higuys and CzechPunter
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McDonald/Opelka O22.5 1.830 Pinnacle
Opelka tough to break, Mcdonald playing great. Good chance for TB's or a 3rd set.
- higuys and CzechPunter
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@CzechPunter Is that "tickets with money amount" directed at me? I used the Unit measurement not dollar amount. Is that still a no go? Just use it to emphasis the amount I like the play more than anything. Usually make the same wager on 90% of my bets. I won't do it in the future if it's taboo here.
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Adding a Chalky play:
Cilic +5.5 1.400 Pinnacle (Played it for 5U)
Djoker has barely been able to beat a spread this size. Last time he did it was against Fognini in the first round at Shanghai. This is a big spread on Hard court for him especially against a hot Cilic.
- black_baar and higuys
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@CzechPunter was looking at mckenzie here too. I've got Opelka +2. Like both these young guns.
- CzechPunter and higuys
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Isner/Sock O23.5 1.720 Pinnacle
Good shot at double TB in first two sets, also I think this is a bad match up for sock. Isner isn't going to making any patient plays. This match should be full of 2-3 shot rallies which is how isner likes to play. If sock tries a passive shot, it will be met with power and the point will likely be over. If sock goes for power, the point will likely be over. The point is Isners fitness level and mobility wont be challenged and he'll love to be playing quick points all day. Should be a slug fest with minal breaks if they both serve consistantly.
- CzechPunter, four-leaf and higuys
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@CzechPunter Never would have taken Sock here without your blessing. Thanks for that and all your other picks. You sir, are a treasure to us tennis bettors.
- higuys and CzechPunter
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Yea... I got smoked yesterday. Welp that means throw more $$$ into your book and get er' back. But that was a crap day.
Cuevas +4 1.800
Sock/Gasquet O23 1.980
Probably Tail you on sock @CzechPunter
- higuys and CzechPunter
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This is a different Cuevas at the start of this match. The last two matches he played he was spraying all over the place. UFE city... Painting the lines today with bullets. He's looking solid. Mind you... So did RBA in the first set and then he turned the match into a WTA game.
Not liking my bet right now though!
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The martingale collapses pretty quick in sports betting because of the juice. In a coin flip you're paid 1:1 and the odds are the same, so it makes sense to chase. In tennis, it's not uncommon to see 1:10 odds. chase that twice and you're betting $100 to win your $1.
The odds makers aren't really looking for an accurate or fair line. They're looking to create action and get paid on both ends so if there's a big odds difference, it's not because one knows better, it's because they're trying to get more people to bet on one end of the table or the other.
Knowing the numbers helps with getting an edge but knowing tennis would help you even more. Knowing the players. Who is tenacious? Who gets pissy? Who's consistent? Who isn't? These things will help you decide where these advanced knowledge bets will give you the best value. If you saw Monfils's melt down at Stockholm, you know exactly what I'm talking about. I was 1 second away from getting Elias at +280. Line went to -500 real fast but if I had a slower bookie, that's where you want to make that play.
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8 minutes ago, four-leaf said:
I think you will be wrong about Lorenzi, he isn't that good and he has matchup problems against Cuevas. Doesn't feel good to pick Lorenzi.
What's Cuevas done since clay season? He wins 250 and 500 clay matches, outside that, he hasn't done anything to write home about. He looked terrible against Sousa and Schwartman in the last two tournaments. Lorenzi's been fairing up well against other hard court players since the US open.
You're right that Lorenzi doesn't have a big game but it's more of a fade on Cuevas.
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Thiem/Sock O22.5 1.957
Lopez/Pouille O23 1.725
Lorenzi -2 Game Spread 1.900
Bautista-Agut ML +110
Ugh oh... I'm betting against Czech punter!! Oh well... I've lost bets before. The overs in general though I think are ripe. Most games will crack the 22 game mark today, aside from Murray/Djoker.
- CzechPunter, four-leaf and higuys
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Klizan/Mahut O22.5 1.957
- higuys, black_baar and CzechPunter
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Lorenzi/Paire O22.5 -1962
Robert/ARV O22 -1.855Marchenko +4.5/Simon ML/Karlovic ML 3.000
Personally I think Lorenzi as a dog makes no sense but maybe PAire's got a new girlfriend he wants to impress? Or boyfriend? He's French... They're cool with either way there. But I'm taking the over.
- CzechPunter and black_baar
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@Mr.Legend Let's go Isner!!! Good Luck Legend.
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Most people on Troicki it seems... Myself included. Good Luck Punters.
Also took an all favs parlay:
Muller/Tsonga/Wawa at +117
Muller and Tsonga benefit from being natural hard court players playing against clay court'ers. Delbo is becoming an all around guy but Muller lives and dies by hard court. Delbonis has a tough time competing with power players on hard and Muller right now unbreakable.
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Sousa +4 -1.847
The line has moved significantly since I placed my wager and now it's around 1.700. I still like Ferrer to win but also think 4 games is a steep spread against Sousa who's playing pretty good tennis right now.
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I decided to take:
Tsonga to Win Vienna at 9.60.
These are one of the fastest courts and that helps Tsongas game. He also got a great draw with only RBA in the QF to really worry about but again, the quick court helps Tsonga especially against RBA. No more Berdych means there's no one really left to threaten his chance at a final. If he's going to beat Murray its in a best of 3, on fast courts, in a smaller tournament. At +860, there's loads of room to hedge as the tournament winds down.
- LEV, higuys and CzechPunter
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Tennis Tips - February 25 - March 3
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
Awe frick. I'm an idiot....
well.. Jarry is probably a bust then. Isner outside the US is always a good fade imo. I assumed it was clay court.