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Milanisimus

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Posts posted by Milanisimus

    Betting strategy

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    On 8/23/2017 at 3:53 PM, Sir Puntalot said:

    Yeah @Joe does like his numbers and stats. ;) 

    My personal opinion is you can't just go with stats alone. They can be a great guide, just like our own unique ELO Football Ratings but you have to insert your own knowledge and even gut feeling. Many people will argue against gut feeling, but I never ignore mine unless I'm craving a 300g Cadburys Caramel Bar, then I try to ignore it. ;) 

    Totally agree. The stats can be a very solid basis to start the analysis, but relying just on them, in my opinion, is not a good approach. I looked at the topic for the ELO ratings, I didn't quite get it on first sight, since its new for me, but will look again, more carefully into it. 

    What I really like to have in an analysis for match, on which I would base my longterm strategy, is to have match preview with information from tipster/journalist which really knows the league and the sport.

    Betting Challenge

    in Footy Chat & Banter

    Posted

    For this purpose, I use one Serbian weekly "magazine" for betting. They include Serbian players and coaches who work in different countries over the world plus some people from the country which cover specific leagues. So due to that, in every week, there are tips and some basic info even about some leagues from Asia (mostly Japan and China) and South America (Brazil and Argentina). 

    Betting strategy

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    In the break between the end of last season and this, I put some time and effort into "analysis" of the proposed strategies for betting. After reading some of the books which have good feedback (Joseph Buchdahl, other books on sharp betting systems), I realized that they heavily focus on the numbers and the probabilities distribution, making the bet looking mostly mathematical. 

    I don't have problems with the numbers (Master in Energy Engineering and Management), but after reading those proposed systems, I just can't convince myself that way into finding the "value" in the bets and the proper odds for a certain match. It is often emphasized that they rely on the law of large numbers, and that the only way to profitable betting is at having some edge instead of trying to guess winners. I like more the approach into analyzing an event separately, but more on the performance part of teams/players, than just looking at lines/odds movement/markets.

    I would appreciate if other members can share their opinions and experiences, on how to define a betting strategy, and what to consider as most important factors. Other feedback and ideas are also welcome :)

    Betting Challenge

    in Footy Chat & Banter

    Posted

    I usually do this, just without the research part, mostly random bets when there is little choice, or just for fun.

    Today, after meeting with a good friend, we decided to make a single bet on the earliest match starting, in this case Asian Champions League.

    https://goo.gl/photos/JnPKzj1NBBbcxA6L7

    As other interesting case, I would note, the first bet I made on baseball, even without knowing the rules of the game :)) I won a bet mostly on home teams win, and I used the money to buy a tennis racket, which meant more interest into tennis later.

    These 2 examples were random bets and luck, but seems interesting to go more into unknown leagues with some basic analysis. Definitely will give it a try during this season.

    New Year Resolution

    in Footy Chat & Banter

    Posted

    I hope 2017 to start in a way 2016 ended for my favorite club AC Milan. Its almost a decade since Milan doesnt play any serious role in European neither in Italian football. 2016 ended much better then expected under Montella having in mind what team he have.

    In 2017 I expect to finally see the Chinese money :D They are also aware that Milan has very good chance to get in top three this season, and should make use of it. I hope they develop the club in a way that its self-sustainable through increase of profit coming from the Asian markets, not just having an owner which splash the cash when needed.

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