stewartd14
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Posts posted by stewartd14
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4.30 Newmarket - SQUASH @ 50/1 Betfred EW
It really surprises me to see this filly as big as 50/1. She finished only a neck behind Only Mine two starts back on soft ground over 6f where Squash couldn't quite reel the winner in. They meet again today over 7f in similar conditons yet Only Mine is 12/1 and shorter and Squash is available at 50/1.
Squash has only had the one run since which was earlier this year at Lingfield where she clipped heels and couldn't recover. That does give her a small benefit of race fitness though and I think the 50/1 on offer is simply too big.
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Re: Flat Racing Friday 29th May Three for me today in an attempt to boost the coffers for Chester tomorrow! 2.10 Newcastle BLUE HUMOR (NAP) @ 9/2 I make this the best bet of today. Distorted Humour, his sire, has been the best two year old sire over the past couple of years in terms of the average speed rating his runners achieve. This is backed up by the win rate of his offspring, generating an excellent strike rate of 24%. They tend to be slightly better over further, but Blue Humor shaped with promise in a decent York maiden first time out, and I fully expect him to be better than the rest of these second time out. Should be fav IMO. 3.05 Newmarket HORSESHOE BAY @ 11/8 (NB) Not the most original but I'm a very big fan of his sire, Arch, and Horseshoe Bay ran a really decent race on his seasonal debut running a decent speed figure. Should come on for that run, and Stoute is in decent form at the moment. Should be tough to beat. 4.45 Newmarket LATE SHIPMENT @ 7/1 A good stayer for Jamie Osborne who has found himself outclassed when stepped up in to Class 3 company lately. Back to Class 4 company where he has recorded a win and a 2nd from his last two starts and the speed figures he ran (93 & 86) on those two runs put him well enough in to go very close today. 7/1 is a reasonable each way bet as I can't see him far away.
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Re: flat racing weds 27th may Fantastic call Richard!
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Re: Weekly Naps Comp ''Sunday 10th May'' 2015 410 Leopardstown CASH OR CASUALTY 0.5 pt EW @ 10/1 Coral (BOG) I backed this horse at The Curragh on the opening day of the flat season on the basis he's a much better performer on soft ground. He won well that day, and has followed up that run with an excellent run on soft ground over 6f, where he was staying on again at the finish. 6f on better going was always going to be unlikely to suit. He then ran at Dundalk last time, which isn't a track where front runners fare well, but he still finished a respectable 4th. I certainly don't feel that the mark of 64 is too steep, and I think he'll have a bit in hand today back on turf, his favoured going, and 7f. The price of 10/1 looks very fair all things considered.
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Re: irish national monday Missed this - very well done Robert!
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Re: grand national trends Interesting analysis both ... will keep very much in mind when looking at the race - especially those course stats Toast!
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Re: ***** US Masters Competition - £150 in CASH Prizes ***** Kuchar @ 33/1 Snedeker @ 40/1 Spieth @ 10/1 Blixt @ 125/1 Na @ 150/1 Good luck all!
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Re: Nap of the Day - Tuesday 7th April 2015 5.00 Pontefract - FAZZA @ 16/1 Edwin Tuer, his trainer, has an excellent 22% strike rate in handicaps at Pontefract, producing a decent level stakes profit and he runs Fazza this afternoon. Fazza himself, has 2 wins and 2 thirds from 7 runs at Ponty. He has been unplaced the last twice here however both those runs came on firmer ground. His sire Sulamani has a strike rate of 5% on firmer ground, and a strike rate of 14% when he gets some cut. The ground is the softer side of good today so quite clearly more favourable. When he last got his conditions at Ponty, he won off a mark of 72 and finished 3rd off a mark of 75. His speed ratings were nearer the 79 mark and he races off a mark of 69 today, so he also looks pretty well handicapped. Slight concern over the step up to 10f, given his poor record over the trip, but the price more than compensates and I think he may just have enough in his favour today to overcome it. 1/2 pt e/w
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Re: flat racing fri 3rd april
Thank you Robert. Slightly frustrating that after mentioning Fahey's great record with handicappers here that I overlooked his Gabrial the Duke in the 16.30, but certainly can't complain with two winners @ 16/1 and 12/1, and a 13/2 place in Spring Offensive. John Quinn actually has a great record at Musselburgh too, but thought there was too much pace in the race for his Moonlighnavigator ! Minionette looks useless !Avoiding the all weather championships at Lingfield to go to Musselburgh for today's selections: 14.25 BUTHELEZI 0.25pt e/w @ 16/1 A couple of positives for this horse. Firstly, the sire Dynaformer has a decent record on softer ground, and with the rain coming this 7 year old gelding will get that softer ground. His form is too inconsistent to say for certain that he doesn't handle it. Additionally, Brian Ellison has a good record in April and this horse showed some decent form north of the border at the end of last year (running to ratings of 97-88-82 on final three starts). Has had a race to get him fit over the jumps, and the 16/1 on offer looks big. 14.55 SPRING OFFENSIVE @ 13/2 /ARCANO GOLD @ 9/2 2 x 0.5 pt WINS Tough race here, but Fahey has said in his column this morning that both horses have progressed from 2-3, and he has to be respected here showing a £71.75 LSP in handicaps at this course over the last three years from 93 runners. Spring Offensive ran three good races last year, and the form of both his win and 2nd has worked out well. He recorded a rating of 90 on his York run on my figures, which puts him well in off a mark of 81. Fancy him to run well here Arcano Gold has shown a liking already for the soft ground he is likely to encounter, and won a late season Maiden at Nottingham last year. His second at Doncaster has worked out extremely well with Four Seasons (4th that day) going on to run at Lingfield in winter champions day. All in all Arcano Gold is a horse with a willing attitude who will handle the ground and is worth a punt today. 15.30 TANGERINE TREES 0.5 PT WIN @ 12/1 Tangerine Trees won this race in 2013 and was 4th in the race last year. The ground was a bit quick for him last year, however (G/F), and he'll be much happier dictating on rain softened ground today. Doesn't look much other pace in the race, and I feel he can make all. 12/1 looks a massive price. 16.30 MINIONETTE @ 6/1 0.25 PT WIN This is a poor race, and Minionette is an unexposed type who should appreciate more of a stamina test than he's been facing previously being by Manduro. Alan Swinbank does well with his Musselburgh handicappers (+£12.25) and Joe Fanning is a positive booking. Half decent bet in an extremely poor race. -
Re: Nap Of The Day - Friday 3rd April 2015 15.30 TANGERINE TREES 0.5 PT WIN @ 12/1 Boyles Tangerine Trees won this race in 2013 and was 4th in the race last year. The ground was a bit quick for him last year, however (G/F), and he'll be much happier dictating on rain softened ground today. Doesn't look much other pace in the race, and I feel he can make all. 12/1 looks a massive price.
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Re: flat racing fri 3rd april Avoiding the all weather championships at Lingfield to go to Musselburgh for today's selections: 14.25 BUTHELEZI 0.25pt e/w @ 16/1 A couple of positives for this horse. Firstly, the sire Dynaformer has a decent record on softer ground, and with the rain coming this 7 year old gelding will get that softer ground. His form is too inconsistent to say for certain that he doesn't handle it. Additionally, Brian Ellison has a good record in April and this horse showed some decent form north of the border at the end of last year (running to ratings of 97-88-82 on final three starts). Has had a race to get him fit over the jumps, and the 16/1 on offer looks big. 14.55 SPRING OFFENSIVE @ 13/2 /ARCANO GOLD @ 9/2 2 x 0.5 pt WINS Tough race here, but Fahey has said in his column this morning that both horses have progressed from 2-3, and he has to be respected here showing a £71.75 LSP in handicaps at this course over the last three years from 93 runners. Spring Offensive ran three good races last year, and the form of both his win and 2nd has worked out well. He recorded a rating of 90 on his York run on my figures, which puts him well in off a mark of 81. Fancy him to run well here Arcano Gold has shown a liking already for the soft ground he is likely to encounter, and won a late season Maiden at Nottingham last year. His second at Doncaster has worked out extremely well with Four Seasons (4th that day) going on to run at Lingfield in winter champions day. All in all Arcano Gold is a horse with a willing attitude who will handle the ground and is worth a punt today. 15.30 TANGERINE TREES 0.5 PT WIN @ 12/1 Tangerine Trees won this race in 2013 and was 4th in the race last year. The ground was a bit quick for him last year, however (G/F), and he'll be much happier dictating on rain softened ground today. Doesn't look much other pace in the race, and I feel he can make all. 12/1 looks a massive price. 16.30 MINIONETTE @ 6/1 0.25 PT WIN This is a poor race, and Minionette is an unexposed type who should appreciate more of a stamina test than he's been facing previously being by Manduro. Alan Swinbank does well with his Musselburgh handicappers (+£12.25) and Joe Fanning is a positive booking. Half decent bet in an extremely poor race.
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Re: Nap of the day 25th Feb 2045 Kempton YA HALLA @ 9/1 Stan James BOG WIN This one caught my eye four starts back when finishing 3rd at Wolverhampton over 7f - a trip slightly too far. He still, however, ran a speed rating of 65 - making him look very well handicapped. He then went on to oblige next time out, again running a rating of 66. A return to that form would see him go very close tonight as looks well handicapped on those performances. Was very unlucky two starts back and had excuses last time. The price is far too big.
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Re: National Hunt Racing > Saturday January 17th 5 pts win SPRINTER SACRE @ EVENS (Boylesports) 10 pts win SPRINTER SACRE TO WIN 3.00 AND CHAMPION CHASE @ 10/3 Betway All the vibes coming out the Henderson camp are positive about Sprinter Sacre tomorrow, and if he's anything like back to his best he's going to take a great deal of beating. He can run almost 2 stone below his best and still take this on official figures and whilst he will come on for the run, I fully expect him to take this tomorrow. With doubts still over Sire de Grugy, I think if Sprinter does win tomorrow, he should be odds on for the Champion Chase, making the 10/3 with Betway for him to win tomorrow, and the Champion Chase an excellent bet.
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Re: Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf > January 15th - 18th 1 pt e/w G Coetzee @ 55/1 Paddy Power (6 places) Coetzee's record in this event reads T6-T9-T4, showing he clearly has a liking for this course. It could be argued that he could have finished much higher last year had it not been for his disappointing third round. He comes into this on the back of two missed cuts, however, he did exactly the same last year in the same two tournaments before finishing 4th back in this event. He is certainly a player who is reasonably consistent, and I think he will be close this year 1 pt e/w T Olesen @ 33/1 Paddy Power (6 places) I actually think the Dane is a good outside bet for the Masters this year, so I'm hopeful he finds his form early season. His record in this event reads T8-T2-T56, and although the T56 is a somewhat poor blot, he really impressed me towards the end of last season. If he starts off in that type of form, he is clearly able to play around here, and I'm hopeful he can be right in contention come Sunday. 0.25 pt win J Carlsson @ 520.0 Betfair 0.25 pt top 10 @ 22.0 Betfair A bit of a left wing selection, but Carlsson finished a good 7th in this event last year, actually shooting the lowest round on the final day (the 3rd lowest of the tournament I think). He didn't follow on from that although showed a sign of returning to form at the end of last season with a 5th at the KLM open, then improving finishes T33-T22 in his final two events. A longshot by all means, but there's no way I make him a 519/1 shot.
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Re: Hyundai Tournament Of Champions > January 9th - 12th Well, here we go, the start of the golf season again ! Two for me in the Tournament of Champions. 2 pts win Matt Kuchar @ 9/1 Bet 365 Kuch has an excellent record round here, on a course where it is a big plus to have course form to your name. His record reads 3-T6-T9-T6 and he'd have finished a lot closer last year had it not been for the one bad round, where he shot 75. He rallied well in the final round, to move up from 16th to a share of 6th, and you were very much left wondering what could have been. He's generally a laid back character, and I can see him going close again this year. 1 pt e/w Chris Kirk : 20/1 Coral (1/4 odds, 4 places) Kirk had his best ever year on the PGA tour last year with 2 wins to his name, and he was another who would have finished closer in this event last year had it not been for one poor round. He was actually leading after the first round, and a poor 2nd round then put him out of contention. If he can make the same kind of start this year, I feel he is much better equipped to hold the form through to the finish. Add to that his remarkable consistency, making 28/30 cuts throughout the year, I think he's a good bet for the first tournament of the year at 20/1.
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Re: Nap of the day competition wednesday 31st december 2014 13.10 Lingfield - MINNIE @ 16/1 gen Although 100/1, I thought Johnny Farrely's horse ran a cracking race at Wolves last time out, and is a bit of value to go close again today. She finished 4th that day, but both Kaufmann (1st) and Spinaminnie (3rd) went on to win next time out. To add further credence to that race being relatively strong, I had Minnie running to a speed rating of 74, which makes her mark of 65 look workable. At 16/1, in a tough race, I don't think she's a bad bet.
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Re: flat racing weds 31st dec Very much agreed with SOUK AL TAHAB in the 1.10 who looks on breeding as if he'll appreciate the step up in trip, but I have one more to add to the mix: 13.10 Lingfield - MINNIE @ 16/1 gen Although 100/1, I thought Johnny Farrely's horse ran a cracking race at Wolves last time out, and is a bit of value to go close again today. She finished 4th that day, but both Kaufmann (1st) and Spinaminnie (3rd) went on to win next time out. To add further credence to that race being relatively strong, I had Minnie running to a speed rating of 74, which makes her mark of 65 look workable. At 16/1, in a tough race, I don't think she's a bad bet.
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Re: BREEDERS CUP FRI / SAT 1ST NOV Brilliant BH, just brilliant. What a filly that Lady Eli looks. She showed the same turn of foot in the Miss Grillo and it looks frightening. Filly going places anyway! Unlucky Richard - some good calls ... Sent from my SM-G900F using PL Forum
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Re: BREEDERS CUP FRI / SAT 1ST NOV 10.50 - JUVENILE FILLIES TURF - LADY ELI @ 5/1 Really liked the turn of foot this horse showed last time, showing tremendous late speed. Was available at 13/2 this morning, somewhat shorter now. Well worth a bet in my view.
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Re: National Hunt Racing - Saturday October 25th (Old Roan Chase)
Great call mate :clapAintree 3:00 - Betfred Monet's Garden Old Roan Chase(LIMITED HANDICAP) (Grade 2) (1) 2m4f The Steve Gollings trained Conquisto won this race last year so he is bound to be a popular choice in the betting market tomorrow. Alan King is banging in plenty of winners early on in the season so the JP McManus owned and Barry Geraghty ridden Uxizandre has to be of serious interest and probably deserves the favourites tag. The 6 year old beat Oscar Whisky over course and distance in a Grade 1 here back in April and has not been seen since so if he is fit he has major claims. All in all, I am quite happy with an each-way bet on Wishfull Thinking at the prices, a horse that tends to go well fresh and enjoys the fences at Aintree which is important. Wishfull Thinking - 1 Point each-way @ 12/1 Bet365 Read Full Preview @ http://www.punterslounge.com/old-roan-chase-betting-wishfull-thinking-can-go-well-for-the-in-form-philip-hobbs -
Re: Flat Racing - Saturday October 25th
Good luck - Ajaadd a horse I've followed off a cliff this season in these big handicaps. A bit concerned about the rain today, but can't be questioning how your form figures have been doing recently ! 3.50 SNOANO @ 10/1 Although just scraping home in soft ground last time, I don't think that was a bad performance given his inexperience and I don't think the 2nd is a bad horse. The figure he ran that day was decent, and I like the fact he's at least run on the surface. 10's is too big. 2.10 GROWL @ 11/2 Thought he ran a good race behind Toocoolforschool last time out on soft ground, and should be extremely competitive back down to listed class. 3.15 BALLESTEROS @ 16/1 Really needs 6f with a bit of cut, but he's uber consistent when the rain comes, and he should be there or thereabouts. He's a full 13 lbs lower than when running a "never nearer" 8th over this C & D at the end of last season on soft, and I'm hopeful he's low enough in the handicap he can take a hand in the finish as the others tire. Singles and an e/w trixie with the above 3. 1.40 TIGER TWENTY TWO @ 10/1 I'm pretty sure this is a horse who needs soft ground, and with that in mind, I don't think he's had a dreadful season. He ran well at York on debut, and then at Chester when things didn't fall right for him. He then disappointed three times when the ground turned too firm. I'm a little bit worried about his poor show at Ayr last time, but generally he's a consistent horse today and the price available makes me willing to take the chance. All prices Bet 365315 donc demora 50 ajaad 50 gladiatrix 50 steps 48 another wide open hcap but big prices and lots of value on offer as a result tempted to go e.w on a couple but sods law in such a hard race ill pick the wrong two ......lol ........... steps 1pt win 14/1 will hill demora 1pt win 16/1 will hill gladiatrix....1pt win 28/1 bet365 ajaad 1pt win 33/1 corals tag team will do nicely ....cmon the lads -
Re: Tote 10 To Follow - Flat Season 2014 (Final Table) :clap Well done Rupert !
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Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 20th October 2014 4.40 Pontefract - ARR KID EW @ 20/1 Bet 365 Came back from a break last time, and the yard are slightly confused by the poor run (quite possible the ground was too firm). Will come on for that, and he's dropped back to a mark of 70, 8 lbs below the mark he won off at Southwell. He'll get some cut in the ground again tomorrow, and the 20/1 is too big. He's run figures in the past that suggests 70 isn't beyond him, so I'm hoping the soft ground can see him go close tomorrow.
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A few at Bath for me tomorrow: 1.30 PRINCESS ICICLE @ 6/1 Skybet Ran well last time out on return from a break, and shoud strip fitter here. Adam Kirby takes the ride, which is eyecatching given his excellent record round Bath and the fact he has a good strike rate when teaming up with Jo Crowley. Looking back in her career, Princess Icicle has definitely shown she has the ability to win off a mark of 66, and natural improvement from her seasonal turf bow last time out should see her run close. 2 pts e/w 2.00 ELUSIVE ELLEN @ 11/1 Skybet Didn't show anything in Ireland, but ran well at Windsor last time on first run for Brendan Powell. She ran a rating of 72 that day, and the race isn't working out badly. That was also her seasonal debut, and I expect her to come on a lot for the run (she got distracted late on and hung too). Powell does well with the runners he brings to Bath, and again, Kirby on board is a big plus. 11/1 looks generous. 2 pts e/w 3.35 BOITE @ 12/1 Bet 365 A tough 2m hcap here, and I'm siding with Boite for the Chapple Hyamm yard. He's been competing at a higher level of late and this represents a much easier task than what he has been faced with. Stamina doubts, but that can be said for most of these, and I'm hoping his class sees him through. 1 pt e/w 4.10 MOUNT HOLLOW @ 33/1 Bet 365 Both Andrew Hollinshead and Jack Duern do well with their Bath runners, and Jack Duern taking 5 lbs off is a big positive for this gelding's chances. The rain softened ground will help here, as I think the 5 1/2f is a bit on the sharp side. However, there will be pace on and he's really well handicapped on his turf runs last year (ran ratings of 76-72-73 on his last 3 turf runs making a mark of 70 look workable). Not the most obvious bet, but at 33/1, he's worth a shot. 1 pt e/w
Saturday Racing 23rd July ( Inc. King George, Gigaset International, Ascot)
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Off to Ascot today so a quick preview:
2.00 1 PT WIN MONTICELLO
Teofilo has an excellent record with his offspring over 7f and Monticello has already registered two good wins over this trip. Hasn't beaten much, but did it convincingly and the times were good. With stamina doubts over a few of the others, my money is with Monticello at around 9/2 early doors.
2.35 1 PT EW MARIE OF LYON
The favourite will take some beating here, but I'm siding with Richard Fahey's runner. By Fahey's own admission, she didn't like the ground at Newmarket last time out and still ran an excellent race to finish 3rd. Her debut race is working out well, and I think she's a valid bet to oppose the short priced favourite.
3.20 1 PT WIN TAUREAN STAR
Found the ground too soft in the Brittania, but still ran a good race. Didn't handle the sharp turns over 7f at Lingfield last time and will appreciate the return to this mile trip on GF ground on which he won 3 starts back. Elnadim as a sire seems to have a good record here at Ascot, and at around 8/1 I think Taurean Star represents a bit of value.
3.55 1 PT WIN BOSSY GUEST/SCOTTISH GLEN
Whitman will likely give a good account of himself from a prominent position, but I think this race is much more likely to fall from a horse coming from off the pace. I've taken two on my side here. Bossy Guest at around 20/1 has an excellent record when encountering firmer ground and has run well here before. Will get an ideal tow in to the race being drawn right next to the pacey Don't Bother Me and Whitman. Silvestre de Sousa rode him at Ascot when 6th on softer ground and I expect an improvement on this better going.
Scottish Glen is a big price here (around 40/1), but is also well drawn to capitalise from the strong pace. Has a good record on firmer ground, and looks overpriced to me today.
5.00 2 PTS WIN HARWOODS VOLANTE
The best bet of the day for me at odds of around 20/1. I've been waiting for this fella to encounter firmer ground again (has an excellent record on it but has been running only on ground with cut recently). David O Meara is a master at these Saturday handicaps, and though I don't like betting in lady riders races, I feel Harwoods Volante is too good of an opportunity to turn up.