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a1ehouse

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Posts posted by a1ehouse

    Holy Grail Total Corners

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 248 bets +24% yield

    ...Cant quite bring myself toi hit £14 p/corner yet....but i will :ok...
    :eek Is that a typo clarky, that'd be nearly 1k risk for a 7 pointer? I'd be confident of £5 per point per corner but probably build the bank steadily before jumping in.

    Lay the Draw, with added safety net and exponential winnings

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Lay the Draw, with added safety net and exponential winnings :welcome Sounds good mate, good luck with it. I've had hit and miss with LtD based on power ratings to get selections. I'd have long winning runs followed by the odd losing one which wiped out my profits, so I like the idea of grouping your games and only betting to fixed liability. Will watch with interest ;).

    Holy Grail Total Corners

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 218 bets +21% yield

    ale' date=' if i [b']get rid of the 1 unit bets, my yield goes UP!?
    Oh yes, so it puts you in a worse position! Still a 7% yield for any system is pretty good imo. Speaking to Kanga a while back and something he said hit home. Went along the lines of better to sell 100 widgets regularly at £5 than 5 widgets rarely for £100 or something like that! He can explain it better than me but its about turnover. Did you do any more work on the fixed odd multiples?

    Holy Grail Total Corners

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 218 bets +21% yield

    If i exclude all the 1 unit stakes: total bets goes down 50% yield goes up from 21% to 26% total staked goes down by 20% total profit only goes down 4% i would be making half the amount of bets, with roughly the same profit but more yield. i suppose it's a matter of efficiency vs profit. Thanks to Kanga for this thought. :ok Any comments?
    My comments from http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/total-corner-spreads-holy-grail-218-bets-21-yield-80745/index2.html#post1383698 still apply bud. Doubling your bets for 5% doesn't seem worth the risk. Can any further analysis be done on the 1 units e.g. league/last 6 corners/goal scored or conceded?

    Holy Grail Total Corners

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 190 bets +26% yield

    Did anyone see the game yesterday? Was the wind a factor???? Seemed strange that a team would get pumped 6-0 yet still achieve 12 corners themselves.
    Saw the highlights, basically highly pressed team firing on all cylinders with defenders getting blocks in and keeper making some saves. Rebounds and ricochets galore. Wasn't clear why there was a similar number the other end tho.

    A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10 Kanga is doing some analysis on my ratings, so will hope to tweak and refine. I may still do these Lays but on a different staking plan. 21 wining streak followed by 2 losses wiped out the profit, so as some have suggested, will start to look more for value, %'s (Kanga-inspired!!) then staking based on % liability. These ratings are producing excellent potential and back tested over 100k matches so will continue to post selections until I settle on things. I am not putting any dosh on them yet and the betfair odds will not be as good as these:

    A1ehouse LtD
    Date Division HomeTeam AwayTeam WinExpectancy BbAvD
    03/10/2009 La Liga Primera Division Barcelona Almeria 92.51% 8.7
    03/10/2009 Bundesliga 1 Bayern Munich FC Koln 90.62% 6.01
    03/10/2009 Premier League Man United Sunderland 94.35% 6.18
    03/10/2009 Superliga Sp Braga Setubal 92.54% 4.59
    04/10/2009 Superliga Sp Lisbon Belenenses 91.64% 4.54

    Holy Grail Total Corners

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 151 bets +31% yield Anyone else having trouble with extrabet? Can't place any bets and my "available to bet" does not equal cash balance?

    Rejected The market you have requested is no longer available on-line.
    edit: emailed em, was a "stuck bet"

    A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10 :ok thanks for the confirmation! In fact, I produced these when I first developed the ratings which have now been tweaked to align better with each league (I used 100 pts for the home team advantage) but now use these: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/1457007-post50.html Will have to refresh the regression to see if the equation changes! Totally agree with the draw accuracy - would love to be able to get that tighter. So any suggestions for filters? Can't see many games where LtD will give us fair odds TBH! :sad although it may open other opportunities for home/away predictions?

    A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10 Thanks Kanga, am familiar with the link which compares goal supremacy to predict and applied something similar above http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/1333339-post16.html Have seen this: http://en.allexperts.com/q/Basic-Math-657/2009/5/Probability-Questions.htm scroll to the last section where it explains a formula. edit: won't work - it was based on a specific algebra question with known probabilities doh!

    Holy Grail Total Corners

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

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