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a1ehouse

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Posts posted by a1ehouse

    Elo ratings calculations - why is home advantage 100 points

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Elo ratings calculations - why is home advantage 100 points Vil, it might be influenced by a couple of things like the points the team start with eg 1000 pts; and whether this is reset season after season or whether it's rolled over. If you're using a relatively small starting number then 100 pts might skew more. Bear in mind that because the advantage is only one small part of the equation the overall impact may not be as big effect as perceived.

    Holy Grail Total Corners

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 293 bets +25% yield. FIRST BETS NOW Make sure you have a stop loss account. Basically this means that the most you will lose is 10 points. At your stake :eek you'd be looking at a potential loss of £100 so it will take a 10 game losing streak with your bank. This weekend you're risking 20% of your bank. However if you don't have a stop loss account and the corners get into to the 20s it'd be twitchy bum time! :spank Edit: of course thus is based on a single point = £10 so adjust accordingly as per muppets advertised stake

    Elo ratings calculations - why is home advantage 100 points

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Elo ratings calculations - why is home advantage 100 points I calculated that there were substantial differences between leagues and countries when I developed my ratings. Previously I used 100 for all home team advantage, but tried to tighten the model using division-specific points advantage. See here for details: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/elo-access-function-75510/#post1457007

    Elo rating system (my thoughts)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Elo rating system (my thoughts) I spent a bit of time developing an Elo Access database to work on finding value. I had a good strike rate but the odds on offer were pretty poor. Had long winning streaks and then a couple of big losses would wipe profit out. I also worked up prices for win lose and draw and had really good fits for my models. Then my mrs fell ill and I've had to put a lot of this on hold. Was building a pretty decent database too and will fire it up again as the season starts. I do have a lot of faith in the ratings and included home advantages, goal scored etc to refine the model. However as with all systems and me old mukker muppet will confirm, it's all about finding value. Would post a link to the thread but the forum is playing up and not displaying it.

    Holy Grail Total Corners

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 269 bets +23% yield

    The Man Utd game made for grim viewing after the sending off it looked as though every attack was going to result in a corner. Another nice profit on the week. :nana
    Aye, made for painful watching! ;)

    Amateur football trader

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Rookie Trading Error

    looking at it' date=' i wish I had held on a little longer now... but iv seen alot of late goals in the few games iv watched im a little nervous[/quote'] Stick a time limit on when you trade out and stick to it otherwise you will be fuming on those occasions when "I'll just wait one more min..." "..oh sh^% they've equalized!" good luck, done well so far!

    Holy Grail Total Corners

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 255 bets +25% yield muppet - question on how you're calculating the stake and yield. Shouldn't the stake be at the stop loss amount - i.e. we are potentially risking it all up to the stop loss of 10 corners, so this week would be (4+4+4+3)*10=150. Hence, like a lay bet it should be the max liability rather than 4+4+4+3 or however you've come up with 17?

    Holy Grail Total Corners

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 250 bets +24% yield

    Can anybody please explain to me how a spread bet works on a boxing match ??? I want to have a punt at the wk end but im not too sure how it all works
    Hi mate :welcome to PL. Read the 1st post (http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/1317617-post1.html) in the thread to see references on what spread betting is all about. Suppose with boxing it'll be how many rounds, how long the bout is etc e.g. you're estimating that that the bout will last under 20 mins whereas the spread co is in the range 22-24 you bet under. Be careful (hope you have a good system/strategy) and make sure you have a stop loss account to avoid the unexpected. :ok
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