a1ehouse
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Posts posted by a1ehouse
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Re: Total Corners Spreads: 58 bets, +20% yield
Cool good luck mate, I'll be with you on this!!:hope Never spread bet before, so how do I place the bet? Already have a sporting acc.I am going live from Saturday. -
Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops One selection tomorrow, 7 for Sunday:
TopAndThePlops Date Division HomeTeam AwayTeam WinExpectancy GoalSuperiority HomeTeamForm AwayTeamForm HeadToHead Betfair Stake Liability 25/04/2009 KPN Eredivisie Anderlecht Dender 94.20% 2 13 WlWdWW 10 WlWlDW Anderlecht:2(1) Dender:0(0) Draws:1(0) 8.4 £4.10 £30.35 -
Re: Elo Access Function
Oh aye mate - one click button for me! Downloads zip file with all the data, then fixtures, unzips the file, merges all the csv files into a single one, few delete/append/update queries and I'm done. All takes around 2 minutes. The important thing to understand is knowing what you want to do and that if you can do it manually by clicking downloading etc. it CAN be automated!!Good stuff, I'm interested in having a go at a rating system but don't really know where to start so I'll have a look into this elo thing and take a gander at MatellicIan's sheet, would be cool to create a macro to do the downloading and updating from footballdata so I migh try and think about that although my excel skills are moderate at best and as for VBA, well, I generally just copy and paste stuff from the various help sites across the web which I suppose is a good way of getting what you want if you've got the time and application. edit. I've got the elo file and unzipped it but it's an xlsm file and it won't open, is it not for excel (I use 2002 version) or am I being thick? -
Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Backtested Eng Prem results quite poor with this system, but after 2 losses I was confident it wouldn't be a draw.
TopAndThePlops HomeTeam Result Man United :dude
New bank, new stakes:A1ehouse LTD Starting Bank £1,000.00 Current Bank £1,025.35 Total Liability £507.87 Number of Bets 17 Winning Bets 15 Losing Bets 2 Strike Rate 88.24% Yield 4.99% P/L less 5% Comm £25.35 100% of Bank £1,025.35 Prices Stake Liability 3.5 £10.25 £25.63 3.6 £6.15 £16.00 7.4 £6.15 £39.37 7.5 £4.10 £26.66 11 £4.10 £41.01 -
Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Madrid - what a game, thought it was going to end in a draw after that penalty miss late on, but somehow the laid draw was pulled out the bag. :nana
TopAndThePlops HomeTeam Result Histon :dude Real Madrid :dude
New bank means new stakesA1ehouse LTD Starting Bank £1,000.00 Current Bank £1,019.52 Total Liability £472.29 Number of Bets 16 Winning Bets 14 Losing Bets 2 Strike Rate 87.50% Yield 4.13% P/L less 5% Comm £19.52
Tomorrows pick:100% of Bank £1,019.52 Prices Stake Liability 3.5 £10.20 £25.49 3.6 £6.12 £15.90 7.4 £6.12 £39.15 7.5 £4.08 £26.51 11 £4.08 £40.78 TopAndThePlops Date Division HomeTeam AwayTeam WinExpectancy GoalSuperiority HomeTeamForm AwayTeamForm HeadToHead Betfair Stake Liability 22/04/2009 Premier League Man United Portsmouth 92.37% 0 18 WWWWWWLl 8 LlLWdLdW Man United:7(5) Portsmouth:3(0) Draws:1(0) 6.8 £6.12 £35.48 -
Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Couple more selections tonight pop pickers and one tomorrow.
TopAndThePlops Date Division HomeTeam AwayTeam WinExpectancy GoalSuperiority HomeTeamForm AwayTeamForm HeadToHead Betfair Stake Liability 21/04/2009 Conference Histon Weymouth 91.94% 25 14 WDllWWDW 0 LllLlLLL Histon:2(0) Weymouth:0(0) Draws:1(1) 12.5 No bet over (£4.04 if < 11) £40.40 21/04/2009 La Liga Primera Division Real Madrid Getafe 92.18% 19 22 WWWWWDWW 7 dDdDlLlW Real Madrid:3(2) Getafe:4(1) Draws:2(1) 5.4 £6.06 £26.66 -
Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops :clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap What a weekend - pure carnage!! Final here we come!!!
TopAndThePlops HomeTeam Result AZ Alkmaar :dude Milan :dude
New bank means new stakes:A1ehouse LTD Starting Bank £1,000.00 Current Bank £1,009.92 Total Liability £407.24 Number of Bets 14 Winning Bets 12 Losing Bets 2 Strike Rate 85.71% Yield 2.44% P/L less 5% Comm £9.92 100% of Bank £1,009.92 Prices Stake Liability 3.5 £10.10 £25.25 3.6 £6.06 £15.75 7.4 £6.06 £38.78 7.5 £4.04 £26.26 11 £4.04 £40.40 -
Re: Elo Access Function
Hi sjuesju - its a bit of both!! Asc and myself use Access to import all the historic football match data into a database with various routines, functions and queries to generate the ratings. On the other hand, there is an excel spreadsheet by MetallicIan further up the thread which should help you get a good start on maybe a single league. It really depends on what you feel most comfortable using to generate your ratings, but bear in mind that they have to be updated each week to enable you to produce a prediction so the easier you can make it the better and less time consuming it is for you.There is something I can't understand. The question is: Is there a software that is being used for ELO ratings and the punter simply put the results or the punter do everything by his own on an excel sheet - the results, the tables and the predictions. Thank you in advance :) -
Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Just 2 games this weekend:
Off to Wembley to hopefully watch Everton sneak a win on Sunday so next update will be on Monday!! COYB :clap:nana:cheers:beer:gimme:moon:dudeTopAndThePlops Date Division HomeTeam AwayTeam WinExpectancy GoalSuperiority HomeTeamForm AwayTeamForm HeadToHead Betfair Stake Liability 18/04/2009 KPN Eredivisie AZ Alkmaar Vitesse 91.04% 10 20 WWdWWWWD 11 WWdWdlLl AZ Alkmaar:10(4) Vitesse:8(4) Draws:5(3) 6.6 £6.02 £33.73 19/04/2009 Serie A Milan Torino 91.25% 10 14 WDlWlWWd 7 dDdWdLlL Milan:8(5) Torino:1(0) Draws:8(3) 5.5 £6.02 £27.10 -
Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops
Ajax scraped through that one! |Makes for a 9.54 profit today. Not bad overall, the two draws of -53 points for the weekend, which are likely but rare based on historic ratings, have been pretty much negated by the wins. Onwards and upwards.HomeTeam Result Heerenveen :dude Ajax :dude A1ehouse LTD Starting Bank £1,000.00 Current Bank £998.48 Total Liability £346.41 Number of Bets 12 Winning Bets 10 Losing Bets 2 Strike Rate 83.33% Yield -0.44% P/L less 5% Comm -£1.52 -
Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops 2 feckin draws in as many days (thread is well over a month old and there were 2 draws in all 37 selections!!) so I was touching cloth a bit with the Chelsea and Stirling games!!! Still a profit of 16.46 after "tax" even with the draw at Inter which cost ~ 22 points.
HomeTeam Result Inter :wall Liverpool :dude Stirling :dude Chelsea :dude Sp Lisbon :dude Barcelona :dude Twente :dude Porto :dude
Tomorrow's selections, same stakes.A1ehouse LTD Starting Bank £1,000.00 Current Bank £988.94 Total Staked £56.20 Total Liability £286.18 Number of Bets 10 Winning Bets 8 Losing Bets 2 Strike Rate 80.00% Yield -3.86% P/L less 5% Comm -£11.06
:hopeDate Division HomeTeam AwayTeam WinExpectancy BFOdds Stake Liability 12-Apr-09 KPN Eredivisie Heerenveen Volendam 90.74% 6.2 £6.02 £31.32 12-Apr-09 KPN Eredivisie Ajax Willem II 93.95% 8.2 £4.02 £28.91 -
Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Cheers Muppet, so if the yield is the total liability divided by the profit/loss we get:
A1ehouse LTD Starting Bank £1,000.00 Current Bank £972.48 Total Staked £10.02 Total Liability £59.32 Number of Bets 2 Winning Bets 1 Losing Bets 1 Strike Rate 50.00% Yield -46.39% P/L less 5% Comm -£27.52 -
Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Summary should be:
A1ehouse LTD Starting Bank £1,000.00 Current Bank £972.48 Total Staked £10.02 Average Liability £29.66 Number of Bets 2 Winning Bets 1 Losing Bets 1 Strike Rate 50.00% Yield -274.56% P/L less 5% Comm -£27.52 -
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Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Game for today and plenty more this weekend: Current Betfair odds you can lay the draw for 6.4
TopAndThePlops Date Division HomeTeam AwayTeam WinExpectancy GoalSuperiority HomeTeamForm AwayTeamForm HeadToHead B365H B365D B365A 10/04/2009 League 1 Peterboro Cheltenham 91.24% 8 21 WLWWWWWW 10 LdlWWdDd Peterboro:2(1) Cheltenham:0(0) Draws:1(0) 1.28 5.25 11 -
Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops
Walk in the park! Will be testing the now infamous "Maria-Ratchet-Staking" plan based on staking % of the bank depending on available odds. £1000 bank so: 1.0% (£10 ~ liability under £25) if odds <=3.5 0.6% (£6 ~ liability £15.50-£38.40) if odds between 3.6 and 7.4 0.4% (£4 ~ liability £26-£40) if odds between 7.5 and 11 Although the B365 draw odds posted above at 6.5, the available Betfair odds at k/o were 8, so should have been £4 at 8.0 (libility £32) rather than laying £10 at 6.5 Have deducted the 5% commission so yield will reflect this also.TopAndThePlops HomeTeam Result Celtic :dude A1ehouse LTD Starting Bank £1,000.00 Current Bank £1,003.80 Total Staked £4.00 Average Liability £32.00 Number of Bets 1 Winning Bets 1 Losing Bets 0 Strike Rate 100.00% Yield 95.00% P/L less 5% Comm £3.80 -
Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Change of tactics, continuing the paper trade for a bit. From now on these will be to LAY THE DRAW:
TopAndThePlops Date Division HomeTeam AwayTeam WinExpectancy GoalSuperiority HomeTeamForm AwayTeamForm HeadToHead B365H B365D B365A 08/04/2009 Premier League Celtic Falkirk 92.23% 5 13 lWdDdWWd 9 ldWdLdLW Celtic:15(8) Falkirk:2(1) Draws:2(0) 1.16 6.5 17 -
Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops Looking at the disappointing overall yield, how can this be turned into something profitable? Reading a lot of threads about finding value, staking plans and laying systems got me into thinking laying the draw. At the above odds and selections I am right in thinking we'd have got (taking into account 5% commission)?
Losing £50 on the Fenerbache game of 13 Feb and £28 on the Bury game of 21 March. If so I think a bit more backtesting is in order...LayTheDraw Starting Bank £100.00 Current Bank £354.50 Number of Bets 37 Winning Bets 35 Losing Bets 2 Strike Rate 94.59% :loon Yield 68.78% :loon P/L £254.50 :loon -
Re: The a1ehouse top and the plops 2 very late goals from Milan makes it a full house!! :nana:nana:nana:nana Not sure why Milan appeared twice in the other post.
Profit in the 1090's:TopAndThePlops HomeTeam Result AZ Alkmaar :dude Celtic :dude Hercules :dude Milan :dude 595's 1090's Starting Bank £100.00 £100.00 Current Bank £83.40 £104.50 Total Staked £40.00 £370.00 Number of Bets 4 37 Winning Bets 2 30 Losing Bets 2 7 Strike Rate 50.00% 81.08% Yield -41.50% 1.22% P/L -£16.60 £4.50 -
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Re: Back testing league specific Hey KThom Depends how you've back tested. It may be odds related, volume of games or standard of teams. Divisions and country stats do differ, but take a look at how you've established the system as it could be coincidence.
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Re: Not a system or strategy exactly but rather more help requested in developing one
Basically you'll be looking at every single game. I did a bit more digging today, what does your back testing look like when you restrict the odds to between 1.4 and 2.1?just ran 3 seasons into the current one , looking at a season's worth of 'form' as suggested. ignoring the first season, the others had a yield of 0%. the final season individualy had a yield of -7%. when cutoffs were set to <0 and >0 the yield again was 0%. again i suspect that the number of goals being strongly correlated to points does not help the model. -
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Re: Not a system or strategy exactly but rather more help requested in developing one Our survey says [url=http://www.jinglemad.com/e107_files/public/1193322240_6527_FT50091_wrong_answer.mp3]http://www.jinglemad.com/e107_files/public/1193322240_6527_FT50091_wrong_answer.mp3 Interesting discussion tho! Kanga - these things have to be explored and I'd rather it before the hard earned is placed :rollin.
A1ehouse LtD (Lay the Draw) 2009/10
in Betting Systems & Strategy
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