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a1ehouse

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Posts posted by a1ehouse

    what exactly are ELO ratings? are they good?

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: what exactly are ELO ratings? are they good? Elo GoodGuy!! I'd be interested in suggestions how to best use the ratings too having spent a week deriving historical ratings!! Elo is a way of calculating the relative strength (or weakness) of two opponents. A teams rating is derived over time using the Elo formula: Rn = Ro + K × (W - We) We = 1 / (10(-dr/400) + 1) (K can be adjusted based on goal difference) Won't bore you too much with the detail you can do a search on the web for that! Basically the ratings go up and down depending on who won the match, what the goal difference was and also whether a team was playing at home or not (slight advantage). e.g. Going off my own calculated ratings from the Villa 1 v 2 Boro game the other day: Pre-match ratings: Villa 1354 pts Boro 1241 pts Post-match ratings: Villa 1331 pts Boro 1265 pts I'd say this would have been a closely matched contest with a slight advantage for Villa. Obviously the ratings can mean diddly squat as Villa lost, but if you're developing a system you'd set exclusion rules (e.g. no less than 200 points difference etc.) This is where back testing and trend analysis comes into play and it all starts to get a bit more complex. Ratings fluctuate after each game, and changes can be quite large e.g. if a high rated team playing at home is beaten by a low rated team the points that change can be quite big and as with any event it may only have been a blip in a team's form. They can be a good indicator of how a game *should* go, but obviously not the holy grail. You could even look at long term ratings (5/6 seasons) short terms rating (1/2 seasons) or even detailed (5/6 games) ratings to derive your own system etc.

    Elo Access Function

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Elo Access Function Fat Jack - looks like Asc's code that is similar to what you were suggesting. Thanks both for your responses, they certainly give me something to work off. I am starting with the fantastic stats provided at football-data and am pretty good with SQL, VBA etc so can work off your replies. I think I'll need to get the data structured right first. I was going down the route of dynamic ratings through queries, but I can see a better use by updating specific records at a time using VBA. Couple of questions: intMatchCountTot's - is this the total match count home and away for each team? intRateForm~Previous - presume this is the latest rating Thanks again peeps! :cheers

    Elo Access Function

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    I'm after some VBA code in Access to allow me to calculate Elo ratings from historical data. Searched and read a heck of a lot of posts and Googled for hours but can not find an answer. I have got functions etc to do the math but my problem is that I only have 1000's of rows of historical data and a basic idea of how I want an Access query to run. Before spending any more time on trying to fathom it out I was wondering if anyone has the function all ready!?!? Essentially the function should take the old rating, then append and update the home and away ratings depending on the result. Simple huh?!?!? Any advice greatful and can post functions I already have if it helps.

    Who Here Makes A Living/part Time Living From Horses Or Dogs???????????

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Who Here Makes A Living/part Time Living From Horses Or Dogs??????????? Not yet, but I'm working on it. I see it more of a supplement for now. Experience has been hit and miss, mainly hit though :dude. Personally, I think the key to making it more of a living is to take out the emotion and not to get too down about losing runs, and not over-celebrating any wins. There are literally thousands of tips/systems/programs that "guarantee" profits and some do, but likewise there's thousands that don't. I've tried the dogs and they are so unpredictable I've never seen a system with a decent strike rate, the most bizarre one was watching if a dog took a dump before the race, if it did then back it?!? At least with horses there's more to consider before making your "investment", and plenty of great free advice out there, including this forum which is full of punters giving free tips. :notworthy As for laying, yes you can make profits, but if you're really smart, then go for Betfair trading which means Backing High, Laying Low and spreading the winnings over all the horses. That's the best way IMO and it's good if you know how the Betfair markets move, but it's getting more difficult as more people are catching on to it.

    Trialling something.....

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Trialling something..... :cryGutted Fleet, but are you really sure? Bets I tracked (missed the first 68):

    Count of Bet Type Result
    Date Lost NR Won Grand Total
    Apr 17 12 29
    May 204 5 87 296
    Jun 13 5 18
    Grand Total 234 5 104 343
    Thats still a 30% hit rate with the new season not even a month old. Plus in May there was only 5 days where no winner was found, and 14 days with 3 or more winners. Food for thought, but if your decision is final, I respect that. Thanks for a great month, see you on another thread... ...but what are you gonna do at work now with all yer free time!?!? :loon

    Trialling something.....

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Trialling something.....

    18.75pts returned and alehouse gets his 1 winner for the day.
    Saw some weird results yesterday with some rank outsiders rolling in. It was looking bad at 17:20 (1/6 on the levels) , but then a good evening all round! Hopefully the form will start to settle over June and we will see an increased hit rate. :hope Keep up the hard work FF, it is appreciated.

    Trialling something.....

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Trialling something..... Nevermind FF, can't predict dang Nags that run like crabs :spank ...A new month, a new outlook...:hope Please keep posting all the selections though, the system still picks a winner in the day, and thats good enough for me :ok. Maybe go back posting top 3 selections including Odds On as well as the normal top 3, you seemed to be picking more winners more often then. :notworthy

    Trialling something.....

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Trialling something.....

    Section 3 is ditched - gonna stick to the method that has been profitable so far.
    :hope Wise move FF. It was looking a bit complicated with all those sections! The best systems are always the quickest and easiest to manage with a decent strikerate IMO.

    Trialling something.....

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Trialling something.....

    Still wondering if I should avoid races where the forecast favourite is odds-on?
    I'd be inclined to agree FF. I've seen more odds on fav's get beat by rank outsiders it's unbelievable. 2 examples from today: Bollin Thomas 2/5!! To The Top 4/9!!

    Trialling something.....

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Trialling something..... I agree Kanga, the last few days have been bad for a number of bets I've been placing that are normally quite strong.

    Count of Mkt Result
    Date Lost NoRace NR Won Grand Total
    12/05/2006 10 1 1 12
    13/05/2006 6 6 12
    14/05/2006 3 1 1 5
    15/05/2006 8 1 1 2 12
    16/05/2006 8 1 9
    17/05/2006 3 5 8
    18/05/2006 10 1 2 13
    Grand Total 48 1 4 18 71
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