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    Trainer Form

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Trainer Form Article about O'Neill on the racing post website: http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=5719724&category=0

    JONJO O'NEILL has dismissed concerns about the health of his string despite the trainer going seven weeks without a winner. O'Neill's last success came on November 19 and since then he has sent out almost 60 runners without a win, with the laboured performance of Cloudy Copper, beaten at odds-on at Lingfield on Monday, indicative of how the Jackdaws team have been performing. Despite the barren run, O'Neill remains positive. "They're running all right,they're just not winning", O'Neill told the Racing Post at Bangor Tuesday. "We've had a few seconds including the horse yesterday [Cloudy Copper] but he was lame this morning and was probably beaten by a better horse [Leo Luna] who is rated 131 [over hurdles]. "Obviously I'd like to have winners but I'm not too worried about them and I certainly wouldn't be running them if they weren't healthy." O'Neill had been fancied to bag a first champion trainers' title after a sprightly start to the season and he added: "We had a great time and then it just stopped and that's it. Maybe it's a lot of summer horses running in the winter."
    I'd be happy enough to back an O'Neill horse at a price after reading that. I looked at the streak and around half of his horses were 14/1 or longer with quite a large amount 33/1 or longer which in reality would be expected to run like 50/1 with the favourite long shot bias. He's had 7 favourites beaten with the 3 shortest prices 2/5, 4/7 and 5/4. He's had horses beaten by a head at 8/1 and 4/1 though as far as I can see no other horses within a length. Having seen good tipsters' bad runs and seen simulations at average odds his streak at these sort of odds could very well be down to randomness which is what I'd go for unless there was a plausible and significant reason why the poor performances of his recent runners are connected to the prospects of his horses going to run in the next few days. Of course there are plenty of potential reasons but if the trainer is saying there's nothing wrong with them as a group except maybe some Summer horses are running in the Winter (which I think you can judge for yourself on the individual horse) I'm inclined to believe him and judge his horses on their individual merits.

    Nap of the Day - Monday 5th Jan 2015

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 5th Jan 2015 Musselburgh 3.00 Island Heights 5/1 Coral 1 point win. Point to point winner who had a decent chasing debut so should enjoy fences having gone for them early enough in its career. Should like 3 miles and has gone fine on a variety of grounds so soft should be no problem. Wilson Renwick usually gets the ride and he's at Musselburgh tomorrow but despite Wilson having no other rides in the race they've gone for Craig Nichol who appears to be a decent enough jockey for a 3 pound claimer so hopefully not a negative.

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