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    Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd 2.35 Theroadtocroker 12/1 Paddy Power 1 point win. Good 4th in a recent hunter chase, these events are where he excels. Third in this last year by 3L to Sizing Australia but that horse must carry 5 extra this time. The previous year he won a French cross country at the same time of year, and back in 2011 he ran out and fell at the last in 2 cross country events at Punchestown while looking the winner. Clearly he's capable in this discipline and having shown he retains ability in his recent hunter chase I think he has a great chance. Danny Mullins not a bad booking. 3.10 Portrait King 20/1 betfred .5 point each way. Races off 134. Classy animal who won the Eider off 131. Was going OK in the national when falling off 140 and won a handicap off 127 pretty well earlier in the season. Forever Gold 33/1 Paddy Power .5 point each way. Has a hurdle rating of 123 earned this season (has form with I Shot the Sherriff and Mydor which has worked out well) and was a good second in a good handicap last time chasing. Essentially has to race off 117 but the new appointment of Luke Dempsey (5) should help him out. 3.50 Pass The Time 100/1 betvictor .5 point each way. Obviously AP's to lose but I think this one can finish second. 2L third in the Sussex Champion Hurdle off 138 is a very nice piece of form to take into this race. 6th in the mares at Cheltenham, was 7th last year. Don't think there's as much between her and all the other's vying for second as the market suggests. 4.25 Pain Au Chocolat 14/1 Coral 1 point win. Disappointed at Cheltenham but King quite likes the horse. Irish juveniles have been very poor and I don't think Qualando is likely enough to back him at that price. His wins before Cheltenham have worked out very well, in particular the defeat of Devilment by 3L. Can really get involved if bouncing back. 5.00 Owega Star 25/1 Coral .5 point each way. Not great in the national but not a disaster. Ran very well in the Paddy Power handicap at Leopardstown as well as the Troytown so has shown he can handle a big race like this. Paul Townend is a big plus. Aupcharlie 25/1 .5 point each way Paddy Power. I fancy this horse has a big handicap in him and with Ger Fox (5) booked today could be the day. Ran well enough in the Plate at Cheltenham, losing by 10L but staying on so the step up in trip should help. 5.35 Mydor 16/1 Paddy Power .5 point each way. All this horse has done is improve this season, heavily backed every time it runs and just constantly places or wins. 4/1 for a place is outstanding. Jimmy Two Times 16/1 bet365 .5 point each way 5 places. Showed wonderful toughness to beat Fine Article and Pleasant Company lto, the other 3 horses very well beaten. Another improver and though up 5 pounds has Luke Dempsey replacing Lavery to help get a bit extra out of him. Stonebrook 25/1 .5 point each way bet365 5 places. Looks very unexposed, was only 2L down in a grade 3 handicap at Aintree in his last run off 1 higher. Competitive race but so was his last one so I think he should be a lot shorter.

    Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd 3.40 Rohans Pride 2/1 William Hill 1 point win. Won this last year and has an outstanding handicap record for a hunter chase of this nature off 123. Jamie Codd is a top amateur to follow, showing a level stakes profit to SP and also gets the ride on plenty of fancied horses. 4.20 Fine Rightly 12/1 .5 point each way Skybet. Thrashed an Ayr handicap before winning a decent chase. Rule the world has improved that form massively with a second in the Irish national off 141, and Fine Rightly gets to run off 140 tomorrow. Tennis Cap 14/1 .5 point each way Paddy Power. Well worth his 145 rating over hurdles and showed he could take to fences with a comfortable win eased right down. Now gets to run off 140 in a chase and could have a few pounds in hand. Blood Cotil 14/1 .5 point each way betfred. Was a massive gamble at Cheltenham, joining the extremely fancied Ned Buntline for favouritism but flopped a bit. Made a bad mistake and also got hampered though so maybe there's more to come. With Townend picking this over Tennis Cap and it being a Mullins horse I am very confident of a bounce back, and this horse could have a lot to come. 4.55 Indian Fairy 14/1 racebets 1 point win. Fair hurdler who really took to fences, winning one race and also falling with every chance in another off 114. Has to race off 117 but I don't think there's much to beat her in this race. JJ Burke a plus considering who has ridden this horse before. 5.30 Arctic Fire 11/2 bet365 1 point win. Mullins loves to talk about this horse as a constant improver and having been only a couple of lengths off Faugheen at Cheltenham and this looking a 2 horse race, I think Arctic Fire is worth a bet at 11/2. Will probably need Faugheen to under perform a little. 6.05 Alpha Des Obeaux 7/1 bet365 1 point win. I'm a big believer in Nichols Canyon but this horse stands out as one to oppose him with. Alpha has had the misfortune to run into Black Hercules, Douvan and Thistlecrack in his last 3 runs. The way I saw it he might have lost by a couple of lengths to Thistlecrack when falling and I think a step down in trip ought to suit. Bound to go close. 7.45 Vital Plot 16/1 .5 point each way William Hill. Penalty kick for On The Fringe to be fair but this horse looks targetted at this race. Wasn't seen to best effect at Cheltenham but ran second in this last year as well as going well before falling at Stratford in their big hunter chase. Has gone very well in points recently so has place claims here.

    Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd 3.40 Equity Swap 25/1 skybet .5 point each way 5 places. This horse looks very promising. A 6 year old who improved for moving to Henry De Bromhead last year, winning a reasonable maiden hurdle at Cork. Off 8 months but this horse definitely looks like he'll go on to be better than his 114 mark. Battling Boru 33/1 bet365 .5 point each way 5 places. Dempsey claiming 5 is a massive plus. Was competitive last time off this mark, and is generally very competitive at around this level. Runs off 108, has won off 106, 104 and 100, in good form and with Dempsey on I think he's entitled to get stuck in. 7.45 Solatentif 1 point win coral (enhanced win only) 21/2. Horse looks suited to better ground having won on it and that was a quality 3rd in the bumper at Leopardstown.

    Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd 4.15 Dick Dundee 25/1 bet365 1 point win. Lots of quality at the top of the market here but I just struggle to single any of them out. Good race. This horse ran really well in the Grand Annual to finish 6th, fading up the hill. His general profile over fences is quite encouraging, with lots of creditable performances off decent marks and a 3 out of 11 strike rate. Luke Dempsey claiming the 5 is a massive plus as opposed to Mikey Fogarty who was on last time. 6.05 Kolaphos 33/1 bet365 1 point win. Looks lightly raced and unexposed. Creditable staying on effort recently over 2 miles off 1 pound higher. Should improve for the extra mile and also for the better ground, having won on yielding and good to firm. Guess Again 10/1 Skybet 1 point win. Ran quite well off 137 in the gold cup at Sandown, just didn't see out the 3 miles 5. Now he gets to run a hurdle race off 115. Looks to have plenty in hand on that basis as he was a useful hurdler during his short hurdles career and seems to have improved since then. Mine Now 20/1 bet365 1 point win. Has been campaigned over the Summer so should handle the better ground. Really smart handicapper with 2 recent wins and a really good 4th to I shot the Sheriff who evidently had a lot in hand as he goes to the World Hurdle tomorrow. Was only a neck behind the really smart Mydor there. Stayed on well last time so an extra 2 furlongs has to be viewed as a plus. This horse deserves a spot among the favourites.

    Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd 4.50 Uncle Junior 6/1 William Hill 1 point win. Dangerous to oppose Enda Bolger's horse who looked every bit the winner at Cheltenham, but Uncle Junior is absolutely well in at the weights. After losing the cross country by 5L to Rivage D'Or he's now 23 pounds better off. Patrick Mullins has chosen him over the useful Dogora. Junior is 14 now but that is still a cross country age and he has won the race before. Didn't even want a bet in this race but this horse caught the eye with his position in the market. 5.30 Thousand Stars 14/1 Paddy Power .5 point each way. Hurricane Fly and Jezki ought to stay the trip, but will they be grade 1 performers at the trip? Of the 2 I rather Jezki barely. I think Dedigout is a grade 1 performer on soft but not on good to yielding. Thousand Stars has won 2 French Champion Hurdles at this trip so I think 14/1 is a big price. They weren't expecting much from his comeback run (both in their comments and how the horse drifted throughout the day) and I thought he performed well. Between better ground and coming on for the run I think he can go past Dedigout. Very good place claims and can pounce if Jezki and Hurricane don't excel at this distance. 6.40 Just Cameron 33/1 Paddy Power .5 point each way. I won't pretend this is anything other than a test of jumping for Un De Sceaux but I'll never back a 1/6 shot. Whenever you have a favourite that short it opens up the rest as an each way proposition. I don't think Smashing is anything special. Just Cameron had the field on the stretch in a recent handicap win off 140. The 6L second in that race ran really well at Aintree since and the rest weren't close. His 2 previous wins were against the very smart Duke of Navan, who recently won a listed handicap off 140 with a ton in hand. This horse has great place claims and if something happens to UDS it can be in the mix.

    Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd 6.05 Supasundae 10/1 bet365 1 point win. Jamie Codd is an absolutely outstanding amateur to have on board. Has 6 lengths to make up on Modus but he went well for a long way at Cheltenham, maybe didn't like the hill. His last 3 runs have been for 3 different trainers, maybe De Bromhead can do better with him the second time. His listed bumper win worked out well with Yanworth going close at Cheltenham. Of course the breeding is a standout with this horse with Galileo the sire. I'm not sure about the Mullins runners, either he didn't think enough of them to bring them to his favourite race, the Champion Bumper, or they disappointed in that race. Disko and Modus very obvious threats.

    Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Punchestown Festival Thread - April 28th - May 2nd Wednesday 3.40 Seskinane 25/1 .5 pt e/w ladbrokes 5 places. That 5th of 18 at Fairyhouse is very good form I feel and in a conditional jockeys' race I think it's a big advantage to be able to have the same rider as you had last time in non-conditional company, not that I think Paddy Kennedy is a star conditional. Landau 14/1 .5 pt e/w Paddy 5 places. This horse is coming off a break but it's gone well fresh. As a 5 year old for Gordon Elliott probably unexposed and is entitled to get competitive on past form. The real reason for picking this horse though is the Kevin Sexton booking. For me he's one of the best conditionals out there and has had a great year, landing the Troytown on Balbriggan and coming very close in the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham. In this company he's a massive plus. Kylestyle 14/1 .5 pt e/w bet365 5 places. Really looked like a stayer the last 2 starts so an extra 4 furlongs should help him build on already competitive efforts. Derek Fox not a bad conditional either. Westerners Son 14/1 .5 pt e/w bet365 5 places. Really got the field stretched out last time which is a good sign. Baccalaureate one of the few to get close backed up the form with a reasonable 5th recently. Maybe won't get an easy lead this time but Conor Maxwell clearly works well with the horse, riding it the last 5 times, winning twice. 7 pound rise but I think he can do well still. Don't always like picking 4 in a race like this but I couldn't find any of the 14/1 shots to leave out. 4.55 Thistlecrack 8/1 coral 1 point win. Shaneshill looks a good horse but I don't think he's something to scare you off the others. Not a big No More Heroes fan. Thistlecrack was very impressive when winning a grade 1 at Aintree. Perhaps it wasn't the best grade 1 but he did seem to be on top when Alpha Des Obeaux fell at the last. That was his first crack at 3 miles after running with a lot of credit over 2m in the imperial cup off 133. I think 8/1 is absolutely huge. 5.30 Don Cossack 3/1 1 point win William Hill. That was an incredible performance at Aintree and if a Mullins horse did that he'd show up here odds on. Road to Riches could reverse the form with Djakadam on better ground but he's been on the go a long time and had an incredibly hard race in the gold cup (made even harder by Bryan Cooper using the whip 16 times, the limit being 8). There's a lot to like about Ballynagour and you can't rule out Boston Bob or On His Own but the front 3 have such class it's hard to go past them and I'm very confident Don Cossack is the best of those. They've always felt he'd stay and I think he can follow in Boston Bob's footsteps with the Melling/Gold Cup double. 6.40 Baby Mix 16/1 Stan James 1 point win. I thought this horse's comeback run from a year and a half off was excellent at Aintree, 10L 6th of 17 in a race as prestigious as what it goes in tomorrow. The horse before that break was rated 142 and now races off 133 so I think can really get in the mix. Now goes over 4 furlongs extra which should suit. Only 7 years old and represents Warren Greatrex I think it has a great chance. You Must Know Me 12/1 William Hill 1 point win. This horse has run really well in 2 big English handicaps over the trip and can cope with the ground. I thought this horse was 50:50 to win when falling lto against Gold Bullet, this race's favourite. Now he's 4 pounds better off, if showing no ill effects this horse should be right there.

    Nap of the day 29th April

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Punchestown 6.40 Baby Mix 16/1 betfred 1 point win. I thought this horse's comeback run from a year and a half off was excellent at Aintree, 10L 6th of 17 in a race as prestigious as what it goes in tomorrow. The horse before that break was rated 142 and now races off 133 so I think can really get in the mix. Now goes over 4 furlongs extra which should suit. Only 7 years old and represents Warren Greatrex I think it has a great chance.

    Nap of the day 28th April

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Punchestown 4.55 Sizing Codelco 16/1 Coral 1 point win. Only 6 years old and only ran 9 times, you have to imagine De Bromhead will have this horse showing continued improvement. 3 lengths 3rd of 17 to 2 smart horses in Some Article and Clondaw Warrior is as good a piece of form as any and only up 2 pounds. Has some good course/distance/ground form last year with a good performance 8L down to Arctic Fire 3rd of 13 in a reasonable novice hurdle in last year's festival so I think conditions will be absolutely fine for this horse to excel in a good handicap.

    Nap of the day Saturday 25th April

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Sandown 2.35 Argocat 15/2 bet365 1 point win. Quite simply I think this horse is the most likely winner. Close enough to Felix Yonger last time to suggest a return to form, and has won 3 grade 2 chases in the past, as well as finishing 3 lengths off Conti in last year's Aintree Bowl. Should be suited by the ground and distance. I'm really unsure about the front 2 in the market, and though Rebel Rebellion is very interesting, Sherwood doesn't have a claim in this race, unlike when he claimed 5 during Rebel's good run of form and the horse is Nicholls' third string so probably has a bit to find.

    Nap Of The Day 21st April

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap Of The Day 21st April Wexford 3.25 Akorakor 9/2 bet365 1 point win. Ran about as badly as I could've imagined last time 23l down in a 17 runner handicap but that was a big field on heavy and Gordon Elliott is a man I'd trust to have him right again as he won a Downpatrick maiden hurdle about as easily as I've seen any horse win this season. Plenty of useful horses in the race but Akorakor is the only one I could see being very classy.

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