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Poor flat afternoon but one for the evening. Belmont 10.46 Lady Eli is an absolute class act and tough to take on for win purposes while Spanish Queen is also a decent horse who should be thereabouts. However I really like Aidan O'Brien's horse, Outstanding. Convincing winner of a weak maiden, the horse was a big price when comfortably beating some very useful opponents at Naas over this trip, making all. Really looks like a horse who can be thereabouts tonight and with Aidan training it's a big possibility she can get the improvement required to win. Sometimes it feels like it's more a second string of Aidan's that gets sent abroad but that's no slight on Outstanding, as he already has two middle distance group 1 winning 3 year old fillies and another in Words who looks a hot prospect. Outstanding 6/1 Paddy Power each way
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2.50 Haydock Elbereth to me looks the most likely winner, coped with a softer surface two runs back at Brighton and won very well at Epsom last time. The way he idled in front suggested he may have been value for more than the margin of victory, and the form worked out well with the second going close in a top handicap off 4 pounds higher. Elbereth was raised 8 pounds and looks progressive to me, with his new mark of 94 still giving him room for improvement. Great Hall's seasonal reappearance was very good and suggested he may have trained on from 4 to 5. Generally races on a firmer surface but has coped well with good to soft in the past. Very consistent horse with good place claims and may have the improvement in him for the win. Elbereth 12/1 and Great Hall 16/1 e/w betfred.
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3.45 Sandown Eclipse Golden Horn is the hot favourite here and it's easy to see why. Don't think 7/2 about The Grey Gatsby is brilliant, I'd be pretty surprised if he won however unlucky he was at Ascot. This would be a tough task for Tullius even at his peak, which he's been very far from this year. Western Hymn ran really well last time but to even have place claims big improvement is required. I really like Cougar Mountain here. They can't seem to find a trip long enough for him and he finished his Ascot race so well that if he raced Solow over tomorrow's trip he'd have a very lively chance, and I don't think Golden Horn is that much better than Solow. Each way is the way to go in this race. Cougar Mountain each way 12/1 Paddy Power.
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Eclipse is the feature but I'll only have a bet if the 5 runners are kept in so I'll wait a while until perhaps writing about Cougar Mountain each way. I'm not hanging about with my bet on the 'charge' though. 2.00 Sandown Coral Charge Lots of potential improvers here at bigger odds, the one I like the most is Son Of Africa under James Doyle who looks quite unexposed and despite having about 15 pounds to find on ratings can make his presence felt. However there's a horse in here that I wanted to back in an Ascot Group 1 but she was withdrawn and that was Mecca's Angel. 5 furlongs is her trip and the trainer thinks she wants non-firm ground (I think he's done well enough on fast ground), the going is described as good and despite the hot English weather there's a bit of rain forecast between now and then so I'm confident the ground can be retained. Mecca's Angel carries a Group 3 winner penalty but carried that same penalty when winning a Longchamp Group 3 easily last time against opposition as good as he faces here and could outclass his opponents. 2 months is a fair bit of time off for a sprinter but when fresh he's been good to go. Waady is a threat after his C&D success last time but I think Mecca's Angel is one of the best around and with a career strike rate of 7 for 12 and 3 for 7 in stakes I'm very happy to take the short odds about a consistent horse. Mecca's Angel win 7/2 Paddy Power NRNB BOG.
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How tough a performance was that from Bondi Beach? Traded 130 in running and I think Heffernan dropped his whip a furlong out too, top jockey anyway. AOB's St. Leger squad looking really good now with the 1-2 here as well as Aloft and I don't think we've seen the best of Bantry Bay either, with Words a potential filly who could stay. If anyone wants to see a joke of a pace watch the 2.45 back, I swear they would go off faster in a grand national on heavy ground. 18 seconds slow when the typical time was 1 second slow. That's a furlong and a half slow. I suppose Parish Hall got upsides anyway and couldn't go past but I don't see why jockeys let someone have such an easy lead.Thanks, Curragh prices posted time for a few bets. 2.45 International Stakes Roheryn was poor last time and may not be up to this level. Parish Hall is a really consistent performer and has plenty of stakes wins, just going down last time but I think the horse he lost to was massively improved that day and could go on to better things, Parish Hall certainly beat the rest pretty well. Air Pilot is 3 pounds better off but I'd just be worried he wants it softer. He's never raced on good to firm and while we'll get a few showers in Ireland between now and then there'll be plenty of drying weather too and I doubt it will reach the easy side of good so Parish Hall is the one I must side with. Parish Hall win 7/4 Betfred 3.55 Grancecon Stud Stakes We have a hyped up Richard Hannon horse and a hyped up Ryan Moore horse, but this is a sprint trip and the Lordan/Lynam combination commands as much respect as anyone here. They run Miss Elizabeth and at the odds I can't see past this one for a bet. Quickened clear really nicely in a conditions stakes to win by 3 lengths from a very solid Ger Lyons horse. Great Page looks very good too but the ground will be quicker this time. Miss Elizabeth 5/1 win Betfred 5.30 Curragh Cup Forgotten Rules is the 4/6 favourite, fair enough price but I think 2 miles is his peak trip and softer ground better also. Royal Navy Ship was a rare Aidan O'Brien 2 year old who had plenty of races yet accomplished little and I'm surprised Ryan Moore takes the ride. I'd expect him to improve from this run more than anything. Bondi Beach is the one I like having stayed on really strongly last time out and his maiden win was really good form. He was given plenty to do last time but made up a fair bit of ground and I think he's a real player here. In addition to the 3 year old allowance he receives 3 pounds from Forgotten Rules for no group wins and 10/1 looks nice. Bondi Beach win 10/1 William Hill -
Thanks, Curragh prices posted time for a few bets. 2.45 International Stakes Roheryn was poor last time and may not be up to this level. Parish Hall is a really consistent performer and has plenty of stakes wins, just going down last time but I think the horse he lost to was massively improved that day and could go on to better things, Parish Hall certainly beat the rest pretty well. Air Pilot is 3 pounds better off but I'd just be worried he wants it softer. He's never raced on good to firm and while we'll get a few showers in Ireland between now and then there'll be plenty of drying weather too and I doubt it will reach the easy side of good so Parish Hall is the one I must side with. Parish Hall win 7/4 Betfred 3.55 Grancecon Stud Stakes We have a hyped up Richard Hannon horse and a hyped up Ryan Moore horse, but this is a sprint trip and the Lordan/Lynam combination commands as much respect as anyone here. They run Miss Elizabeth and at the odds I can't see past this one for a bet. Quickened clear really nicely in a conditions stakes to win by 3 lengths from a very solid Ger Lyons horse. Great Page looks very good too but the ground will be quicker this time. Miss Elizabeth 5/1 win Betfred 5.30 Curragh Cup Forgotten Rules is the 4/6 favourite, fair enough price but I think 2 miles is his peak trip and softer ground better also. Royal Navy Ship was a rare Aidan O'Brien 2 year old who had plenty of races yet accomplished little and I'm surprised Ryan Moore takes the ride. I'd expect him to improve from this run more than anything. Bondi Beach is the one I like having stayed on really strongly last time out and his maiden win was really good form. He was given plenty to do last time but made up a fair bit of ground and I think he's a real player here. In addition to the 3 year old allowance he receives 3 pounds from Forgotten Rules for no group wins and 10/1 looks nice. Bondi Beach win 10/1 William Hill
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As was worried War Envoy done in by no pace at all but ran no sort of race anyway. Didn't like Moore's ride, he had nil chance by the 2 furlong pole while still on the bridle as they went an absolute crawl but maybe the horse has to be treated a certain way by the jockey, like many of Aidan's. Painted Cliffs wins at 7/1 not often one of my drifters wins. How well have Aidan's 2 year olds run this month? Good to take the profit into the derby so I can enjoy it.The Curragh 3.35 Gordon Lord Byron has been well off the pace this year and I doubt Tested will appreciate a furlong shorter. Balmont Mast and Russian Soul are solid horses but I think Line of Reason shows the best form, even under 3 pound penalty, having recently won a listed race by a couple of lengths and should like conditions. Line of Reason win 4/1 bet365 4.45 War Envoy on form is by far the best here and several of his opponents carry a penalty. There may be no pace on show which could harm his chances, but I just can't find anything to oppose him with. War Envoy win 6/4 Coral 5.50 Painted Cliffs looks a really progressive AOB horse, having beaten off the challenge of a Weld newcomer who stretched a remarkable 12 lengths clear of the third in a 6 furlong race. Can't believe the horse is 6/1. Painted Cliffs win 6/1 betfred 6.30 The two I fancy here have had the price gone already, while I Backed Highland Reel earlier in the week I missed out on Qualify, but I still like their prices. I think people get a bit excited about derby form. 3 lengths down shouldn't translate into odds on for me. Qualify surely isn't 4th choice for O'Brien, surely something is going on about Colm retaining the ride. He's plenty capable anyway. Won the Oaks absolutely fair and square and I don't see why the Curragh won't suit. She was pricewised at 12/1, but 10/1 or better is still value for me, and hopefully the 8 runners hold for each way purposes. Highland Reel really impressed me at Chantilly with the way he kept on so strongly. Perhaps it'd be nice to see the field strung out there a bit more but his selection as first choice here means a lot. Qualify 10/1 e/w Skybet Highland Reel 9/2 win betfred -
3.15 Saint-Cloud Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud Lovely renewal this and I think it's a shame so few British and Irish flat horses are kept in training past 3 years compared to this lineup. I think the top 3 in the market are a bit ahead of the rest so that's where I'll focus. If you follow Flintshire you may well be very fed up with how often he comes second or third without winning, and against two top horses I can see a similar fate. Treve ran well on reappearance but really you'd fancy Dolniya to do the same to that field, and you have to think Arc day is all they have in mind this year as far as Treve peaking. I love Dolniya's price here and think she can benefit from not having to lead here as she had to in such a small field last time. Her performance in Meydan remains a top piece of form and I think she is the top horse here. Dolniya 10/3 win Paddy Power 4.30 Curragh Pretty Polly Stakes Legatissimo was turned over last time but at 2/1 or less I don't fancy her, this may be an even tougher task. Diamondsandrubies is a famous Epsom hard luck story, having been smacked by Together Forever but I don't think she lost that much momentum from watching it again and I can't possibly think a 2 furlong step down in trip will be beneficial. I think Pleascach's bubble was burst a bit at Ascot, and her Irish Guineas win hasn't worked out that well bar Found with Devonshire and Jack Naylor disappointing. I have to go for Brooch. She could not have been more impressive in a 2 length win over a mile last time, and 2 more furlongs is no problem. The form has worked out amazingly well, the second hasn't raced since but the third was amazing maria who shocked all at Ascot to win by 2 lengths, and 3 lengths further back in 4th was Waltzing Matilda who scored a great victory on Belmont Stakes night. Brooch looks really unexposed to me and I really like her here. Brooch 5/1 win Betfred
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The Curragh 3.35 Gordon Lord Byron has been well off the pace this year and I doubt Tested will appreciate a furlong shorter. Balmont Mast and Russian Soul are solid horses but I think Line of Reason shows the best form, even under 3 pound penalty, having recently won a listed race by a couple of lengths and should like conditions. Line of Reason win 4/1 bet365 4.45 War Envoy on form is by far the best here and several of his opponents carry a penalty. There may be no pace on show which could harm his chances, but I just can't find anything to oppose him with. War Envoy win 6/4 Coral 5.50 Painted Cliffs looks a really progressive AOB horse, having beaten off the challenge of a Weld newcomer who stretched a remarkable 12 lengths clear of the third in a 6 furlong race. Can't believe the horse is 6/1. Painted Cliffs win 6/1 betfred 6.30 The two I fancy here have had the price gone already, while I Backed Highland Reel earlier in the week I missed out on Qualify, but I still like their prices. I think people get a bit excited about derby form. 3 lengths down shouldn't translate into odds on for me. Qualify surely isn't 4th choice for O'Brien, surely something is going on about Colm retaining the ride. He's plenty capable anyway. Won the Oaks absolutely fair and square and I don't see why the Curragh won't suit. She was pricewised at 12/1, but 10/1 or better is still value for me, and hopefully the 8 runners hold for each way purposes. Highland Reel really impressed me at Chantilly with the way he kept on so strongly. Perhaps it'd be nice to see the field strung out there a bit more but his selection as first choice here means a lot. Qualify 10/1 e/w Skybet Highland Reel 9/2 win betfred
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2.30 Jersey Breeze really strung them out last time and looked like improving for the extra furlong. Mick Channon does well with 2 year olds and in this race. Would be keen on Laxfield Road if Rosario was on. Jersey Breeze 16/1 e/w skybet 3.05 Balios looks the most likely winner here, only 2 runs, ran very well at listed level last time, shaping as if it will improve for the extra 2 furlongs and could come on for the run. Mr. Singh a good alternative but Balios really strong for me. Balios 5/1 win Paddy Power 5.00 Watersmeet here for Mark Johnston has won 4 of 5 this year and arguably threw the one loss away by hanging left. Keeps on pulling out more in handicaps and I'm a bit surprised the horse isn't favourite. Johnston's other horse, Sennockian Star, has a bit doubt about the trip but the horse is in good form, 2 from 3 now and should peak at this event. Races off 97 and has won off 101 in the past. At a decent price in a race without depth I'll forgive the trip doubts. Dashing Star is always thereabouts in these events, with his best effort yet last time, and Ryan Moore could get that bit extra out of her. Dashing Star 12/1 e/w Boylesports, Watersmeet 12/1 e/w betfred and Sennockian Star e/w 16/1 betfred 5.35 There is a big gap in the market from future empire onwards, and it's mostly justified. Plenty of solid claims at the top of the market. I would fancy Bantry Bay far more of the O'Brien's, won really well lto and was massively backed on debut but he's second string so I can't back either. The one at the bigger prices I love is Vive Ma Fille who now receives a mares' allowance leaving handicap company. Mark Johnston has won this an astonishing 7 times since 2001, and with 7 different horses at that. This horse went really close in a good Musselburgh handicap off 84 and looks like she'll improve for the step up in trip. Very happy to have astute pace judge Joe Fanning on board. Vive Ma Fille 25/1 e/w Ladbrokes
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3.40 Commonwealth Cup Limato and Hootenanny were both monsters as 2 year olds to such an extent that you have to wonder about training on. After Limato's latest run and Candy's comments, it's hard to back Limato as the favourite. Anthem Alexander and Tiggy Wiggy showed form as good as those 2 last year and I think they've trained on. Tiggy's first run this year was very disappointing, but for a horse that clearly hates a mile she did extremely well to finish third in the 1000 Guineas. Anthem Alexander did really well to win on bottomless ground when most thought she needed the run anyway and it looks like she's trained on, but it was Tiggy Wiggy who help the upper hand at the end of last year and seemed to get better every race, and I will very happily back her. Tiggy Wiggy win 7/1 Betfair Sportsbook 4.20 Coronation Stakes 3 1000 Guineas seconds and a 1000 Guineas winner go head to head. The piece of form I don't like is the French one, simply because the ground was a little softer, though perhaps I'm haunted by Make Believe's performance. You could say Irish Rookie is overpriced but I don't see what will improve her past Ervedya. I can't separate Lucida and Found, both were excellent seconds in their Guineas and they were closely matched behind Cursory Glance as 2 year olds. The typical O'Brien improvement from one run to another would suggest Found can go better, but Lucida really fell out of the gates at Newmarket and I think she'll also improve for the run, so being the bigger price I have to back Lucida. Lucida 7/2 win William Hill
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3.40 Ribblesdale Stakes Judging by Jim Bolger's comments, and by the fact he made sure that her 1000 Guineas win was strongly run, I absolutely think this horse can benefit from the 4 furlong step up. My only concern is that this is somewhat of a diversion from the original Bolger plan to bring her straight to the Irish derby but this is by far the most likely winner. Curvy downed Canaletto last time, but Canaletto flattered that form by improving significantly for Epsom. Indeed AOB said after the defeat to Curvy it was very unlikely Canaletto would go for the derby. Wedding Vow ran a cracker to finish second to Legatissimo (and thrashing subsequent g3 runner up Carla Bianca) but a shocker not to win the Lingfield Oaks trial. Given Moore has chosen Curvy I can't fancy this horse, JOB has done very little on the second string this year. Of the shorter priced British horses Pandora seems OK but they all seem a bit average. Entertainment is the big priced alternative for me. Finished 7 and a half behind Crystal Zvezda (or 4 behind the runner up) but you can add around a length and a half to that defeat as Doyle weighed in 2 pounds light. However, the horse was well supported in the betting that day and hung all over the place, and never really got settled. Going up 2 furlongs can only help as she stayed on really well at the finish. Her previous run was 6L down to Diamondsandrubies on ground softer than ideal, form which I felt was very much franked by Diamondsandrubies's outrageously unlucky 4th in the Oaks, who had a tough job to simply remain on her feet. Pleascach 5/6 win BetVictor, Entertainment 33/1 e/w William Hill 4.20 Gold Cup Whether or not Forgotten Rules runs I don't see him being value on the ground he'll encounter. While I think he's a class act I didn't really like his reappearance, most of the horses there needed the run and his only challenger, Answered, found the trip 2 furlongs too far. Don't think there's any star in the rest of the field so I'm going to look to Aidan O'Brien. He's won this 6 of the last 9 runnings so knows what it takes. Ryan Moore likely had a choice and chose Kingfisher over Simenon, who's not a bad animal himself. I thought it was telling that immediately after his Leopardstown win the Gold Cup was identified as the target for Kingfisher. Largely used as a pacemaker last year, Kingfisher needed his first run back before scoring in listed company at Leopardstown. Only won by half a length but travelled like an absolute dream, with less than 2 furlongs left and several lengths to make up the inexperienced Donnacha O'Brien finally popped the question and once he got going he absolutely ate up the ground and probably had more in hand than shown in the bare result. With Moore on and reaching his seasonal target, I think he can pull plenty of improvement out and has a good shot of landing this race. Kingfisher 12/1 e/w Paddy Power
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Watching the video you can't believe Assault lost but the paused imagine RUK showed on the line I felt made it look like Star won as they were bang level and the camera angle would have flattered Assault being on the far side. Photo looked close but still I think Star looked the winner. Incredible though, watching it at full speed you felt Assault had at least a head on Star but they crossed the line in the one part of the head bob that put Star in front.
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Decent day today, only doing 2 of tomorrow's races. 2.30 Jersey Stakes Lots to like here and I think Ivawood is absolutely there for the taking under 5 pound penalty. Bossy Guest was unlucky not to beat Ivawood at level weights in the 2000. Toscanini is immensely promising, James Doyle doesn't come to Ireland for rubbish and he came here for this horse, ground was absolutely an excuse for me, was described as good to yielding but it was soft at best. Devonshire is the other godolphin horse who I've like for a while (Doyle skipped French Guineas to ride this in a Leopardstown trial) but I don't think this horse is fast enough for 7 furlongs and though Buick is as good as any jockey, Doyle had first choice and he picked Toscanini. Sir Isaac Newton is the one I want to keep onside. Was extremely green when winning a good Gowran maiden by over 3 lengths (really awkward going past the leader) and there's no way AOB would send him here if he hadn't sorted him out mentally. Ryan Moore also picks him. I've always felt this horse had big promise and now he's got the win under his belt I think he can take down Ivawood getting 5 pounds. He was talked about as a derby horse, I think 1m2f will turn out his optimum trip but I think this horse has a good enough turn of foot for the race. I took the 16/1 available yesterday, but such is the promise of this horse that whatever price he's backed into will, I believe, turn out to be value. Sir Isaac Newton win 12/1 William Hill. 4.20 Prince of Wales' stakes Free Eagle is an exceptional horse, had no right to go so close on heavy last year. The conditions of the race are ideal and Weld should have him ready. 3/1 is not the worst price. Hard to think The Grey Gatsby has trained on after those 2 runs this year and Moore deserting him. I think Ectot is unproven at the level he needs to win this, and while Cannock Chase and Western Hymn are very good the horse I fancy to take down Eagle is Spielberg. This horse combines 2 things I like very much: Japanese middle distance runners and Christophe Soumillon. The horse should be very happy with the good to firm we should see tomorrow, and was really just being given a prep last time over soft, finishing well but never really put into the race. I'm hoping Soumillon can be more forward with this horse than the standard Japanese tactic of going as far back as possible. His 3/4 length defeat of Gentildonna is top form as well as his finish in the Japan Cup in what I think is not the optimum trip. 1m2f on good to firm will suit him down to the ground. You don't win a Japanese 1m2f group 1 without being a top horse, I don't think this horse has slowed down since and with one of the world's best jockeys on board I think he is primed to perform right up to his best. Spielberg win 10/1 William Hill.
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Another one in the 5.00. Shocked to find Fun Mac pushed out to 10/1. Won a handicap easier than I've ever seen off 84 on 4 your old debut. Hit the line over 14 looking like he could go around again. Good to firm ground that day and a pretty valuable race I think he'll be fine tomorrow. Booking of Hughes a plus too. You can say his last race collapsed giving him the 11L margin but he too had to cope with the hot early pace. If that race was on channel 4 people would be begging him to go for the gold cup. Fun Mac 10/1 William Hill each way.
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2.30 Queen Anne Stakes Solow for me the best horse in the world. Plenty of pace and with 9 wins from the last 10 I think this horse can afford the race to unravel in any manner. Able Friend is a huge wildcard but I would struggle to back it at 9/4 as it never seems to beat much in Hong Kong. Solow 6/4 win betfred. 3.05 Coventry Stakes Very strong race here with lots of depth. Air Force Blue ran a very good debut with the form working out very well (2nd and 3rd won very handily next time out) but I question whether AOB will have him far enough along to win this one. Round Two looks decent but the race is too strong to back it at so short. Buratino is the real star for me here. Winning a 6f 2yo listed race by 6 lengths is exceptional, and the field was well strung out even beyond the second place horse. Buratino 8/1 win betfred. 3.40 Kings Stand Stakes Sole Power is a fair enough price at 7/2 with perfect conditions. Bit of depth to this race with Spirit Quartz a potential improver if he can settle better. Wind fire was also unlucky last time but I'm a big fan of Mecca's Angel. Has only lost once since being a 2yo, though it's possibly a negative that the trainer has never before put him in a group one. Trainer doesn't think he wants fast ground but good ground should be perfect, given this horse has won registering some very fast times. His last performance under penalty at Longchamp was exceptional, with several top performers in behind. Mecca's Angel 8/1 win betfred. 4.20 St. James's Palace Stakes Looks like a match here between Gleneagles and Make Believe. All the hype is about Gleneagles but I don't think that's fair on Make Believe. To beat a subsequent French derby winner by an easy 3 lengths is a brilliant feat. If Make Believe's performance was in England or Ireland I think he'd be a lot shorter. Make Believe 7/2 win ladbrokes. 5.00 Ascot Stakes Really strong hand here for Willie Mullins. Digeanta is a bigger price and for me too big. Was backed into 3/1 for a quite hot handicap at Leopardstown recently and finished close enough to suggest still in top form. Went very close in the Cesarewitch last year and I think this horse can excel at the extreme distance. Asbury Boss is a very unexposed handicapper with only 6 runs yet. Seasonal reappearance was a very good third of 19 in a pretty good Curragh handicap and was also very close in the Irish Cesarewitch. Another one who I think should stay on at the extra distance. Buckland isn't necessarily one who I think should be favourite but is a very consistent performer and has good course form. The horse has won off 86 and 91 and tackles this off 88. The horse seemed to travel well here lto over 2 miles but couldn't find extra. Really sticks out as one to improve for the step up in trip. Digeanta e/w 16/1 racebets, Asbury Boss e/w 16/1 Skybet, Buckland 25/1 e/w Skybet. 5.35 Windsor Castle Stakes Really weak race for and very tough to make a case for a lot of them. With that in mind Washington DC looks by far the most likely winner. 2 lengths down to round two lto gives him the best form in the race, and with AOB the trainer the best prospects of improvement. Having raced 3 times already the horse has had ideal preparation, and I think he should be a fair bit shorter. Nelspruit is a good horse to also back at a big price. Richard Hannon's record in 2yo Stakes races is exceptional. This horse is second string, which is fair enough but I think he just ran into one in Buratino. As mentioned before the field was really well strung out behind Nelspruit and I think he has a realistic shot of winning. Washington DC win 11/2 Coral, Nelspruit 25/1 win betfred.
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Re: 'Beating SP' - Does it matter? I think it's crucial to at least get level with SP but I know of plenty of punters who manage to do well despite backing some drifters. Generally though this is in big races where all the horses are 'trying'. Probably not a great idea to back drifters in low grade all weather racing. If you're going to measure against SP though, don't do it against the industry SP, do it against the betfair starting price. This is because it uses a 100% overround/book percentage. Often the industry SP vastly overestimates long shots chances. If a horse opens up 16/1 on track and 20 on betfair and drifts to 40 on betfair it will probably only go to 20/1 on track. You can get betfair starting prices each day in the betfair timeform results page if it's recent or archived here if it's old. Such is my effort to avoid drifters that I won't back anything significantly bigger on betfair than what it is with the bookies.
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Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 6th June Inc Epsom Derby On the drift right now but Chiclet (Epsom dash, 3:45) looked to me like a horse with plenty more to come in Dundalk last time. It could not have won more easily and has been given a 6 week break, perhaps targeting this race. Up 10 pounds from the last race but he won by 2 lengths over a horse who won a handicap since. If he was fully pushed out there's no telling what he would have won by. Smullen is off and Hayes is on, but Smullen had absolutely nothing to do in the last race other than hold onto her for the first half of the race and then let her do his thing. Hayes is also perfectly capable. The obvious thing to say is that's a 6 runner on polytrack, what about a 20 runner on turf? The answer is he won a 13 runner race on the straight at Navan 2 runs ago (goes for the 4 timer). The close second that day soon after earned a mark of 93 (chiclet races off 92 tomorrow) in a listed race. The third was 5 lengths back in a 5 furlong race, so I think there's lots there to say she can cope with similar conditions to tomorrow. Unproven on good to firm ground if it goes to that but has run to form on good ground so I think it's all set up well for this horse. I'll be sure to back it when she settles down in the market.
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Re: flat racing friday 5th june inc.epsom oaks
I live near enough the course, been dry and hot since I woke up.Up in cork and it is very drying think that around lunchtime you will catch the same so the ground could be a bit dryer by kick off gl -
Re: flat racing sat 6th june epsom derby Completely agree Aidy, bar Golden Horn I think this one has the best form in the race, just a shame it comes on heavy. Condon did say at Leopardstown the last day that he is much better on soft (evidently didn't try to stop the owner splashing the cash though), but I think he only has to cope with the good to place and if he goes as well as on soft I genuinely think he has an outstanding chance. All the breeding people say he won't stay but having been going away at the line over 10 furlongs I think it's a bit silly to cling to the breeding when we have that evidence. Looked like there was plenty for Condon to work on with him too with his tendency to try and hang down the straight and hopefully he brings even more out of him. People have been dismissive of what he's beaten but the second last time, by 10 lengths, had beaten Hans Holbein by 6 lengths in his first start of the campaign on heavy ground and also was a half length off Diamondsandrubies and Pleascach in a listed race, form which has obviously worked out extremely well.
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Re: flat racing friday 5th june inc.epsom oaks Found skipping this one as well as the derby. Bit surprised but maybe O'Brien felt she needed the rest. Legatissimo now the most likely winner for me by miles with how far the front 2 went away in the guineas. I can't see her being worse at 12f. Together forever is the only one I can see as value to improve to that level. That first run back was top stuff for an O'Brien runner, and taking weight for lengths literally would have beaten star of seville by over 2 lengths which would have her as one of the favourites here.
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Re: flat racing friday 5th june inc.epsom oaks
Hughes rides Zvezda according to racing post. I really like Found here, as long as the bookings indicate she's second string or better. Looks made for the longer trip to me and I have little doubt she was the best horse in the Irish 1000 Guineas which was an exceptional race. Bolger set that one up for pleascach and having watched it again I thought Found was going the pace to win before being carried across. Whether her challenge would have stalled anyway is another question but I thought it was a great run. However looking at the bookies who are NRNB I'm not sure whether her current best price 7/1 is going to last if declared for this. If she ends up 5/1 I'd probably want her to be first string. Diamondsandrubies and lady of dubai put a fair bit between themselves and the field lto but this is a massive step up. I feel Jack Naylor might be slightly limited to placing in these events having been well beaten as a 2 year old at Longchamp with no real excuse. I'm not sure she'll improve a lot for the run. Together Forever and Al Naamah are promising but I'd like to have seen them put more between themselves and the field in their recent second place finishes. Ultimately Found and Legatissimo look so strong to me I'd really like to be picking between the 2, and my decision will be made by who rides who and how big a difference there is in price.epsom oaks legatissimo 99.17 found 99.10 . crystal zvezda 99.01 together forever 99.01 I like to have a nice bet on the oaks .....legattismo and found are well fancied but unusually im going to oppose the top rated horses in favour of the 3rd and 4 th .....crystal zvezda hasnt really done anything near the top two rated on course but is undoubtably an classic oaks dark horse with unlimited potential ....you would expect the stoute moore combo to produce something special on the day and worth a punt .....of the others together forever has to be the pick of the o brien team ....i was impressed with recent run and could come on considerably under o brien ....im happy with that tag team crystal zvezda 10 pts win 4/1 bet 365 nrnb together forever 3 pts saver 10/1 bet 365 nrnb -
Re: Weekly Naps Comp ''Wednesday 6th May'' 2015 Chester 3.10 Shu Lewis 20/1 1 point win william hill.
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Re: Weekly Naps competition | Tuesday 5th May 3.00 Fakenham Hunt Ball 11/8 Paddy Power 1 point win.
Flat Racing Monday 6th July
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Roscommon 7.45 Listed Stakes Useful listed contest here but Bantry Bay is an absolute standout here. Backed off the boards all 3 starts so far, good second first time out then a really nice win at the Curragh and then a bit unlucky at Royal Ascot, going off 3/1 and not given a clear run, losing by 3 lengths to Aloft. Stays further but there should be a reasonable pace. For me this is a horse who will contest Group 1s in the future, so with no penalty 3/1 is outstanding value. Bantry Bay 3/1 win Paddy Power