yogg

for the second day running Kevin Anderson has scuppered my bet on a tie break. Kohlschreiber even had set point in the tie break at 7-6 
I'm beginning to dislike Kevin Anderson.

today I'm going to try three matches in the over 2.5 sets market for a treble paying 12.69 with Bet365.
Kohlschreiber vs Anderson
Sharapova vs Bertens
Isner vs Cuevas
good luck to all. 

Kukushkin vs Anderson - ATP Madrid
this could be an awkward match for Anderson against a  very in form Kukushkin and I 'll be backing the Kazakh -1.5 sets @ 6.67 with Pinnacle with a saver +1.5 sets @ 2.00 with Paddy Power.
good luck all. 
Just a tie break away from a tasty winner - Kuku even had a BP @ 4-4 in the 2nd set 

Gonna try this fourfold tomorrow
Kevin Anderson to beat Philipp Kohlschrieber at evens with bet365
Kevin way better then Philipp and has always been although he's got fewer titles but reaching a grand slam final says it all about Kevin and he's fully capable on this Madrid surface.
John Isner to beat Pablo Cuevas at 1.80 with bet365
Big John going strong nowadays facing a Pablo with semifinal points to defend but I fear he'll come up short in this matchup because of the big serves coming his way tomorrow. He'll have to return basically out of his socks to win this match.
Simona Halep to beat Karolina Pliskova at 1.44 with bet365
Simona has a 6-1 head to head advantage in this matchup and she's world no.1 and will still be after Madrid and she's playing good enough for another Madrid final. The reason it's 6-1 to Simona is probably about returning and reading the Karolina serve so well. She just beat the other sister and will likely beat Karolina to.
Daria Kasatkina to beat Petra Kvitova at 2.50 with bet365
Saw Petra in the Prag final and that first set when she was up 4-1 she decided to throw it away. Even though she eventually won the match by grinding down the romanian she was a complete disaster with unforced errors thrown in from left and right. It will be costly when facing this young russian.
Fourfold paying x13.00 at bet365 

Did anyone get to see KiKi's last match? I saw Wozniacki's match.. and she was horrible. Barty was leading 4-2 in the final set and just fell apart. It was the unforced errors by Barty that gifted the match to woz. Really feel KiKi might be worth backing here at odds of 2.29.

Caroline Garcia to beat Julia Goerges at 1.80 with Paddy Power
Karolina Pliskova to beat Sloane Stephens at 1.80 with William Hill
Two big hitters against two big hitters, but I believe that Garcia and Pliskova have a bit more finesse on clay than their opponents. You may laugh at me saying that Pliskova has more finesse than someone else, but yeah, in comparison to Stephens, definitely. Meanwhile, Goerges is just shambolic all the time and hasn't looked great since that painful loss in Charleston.

Goffin to lose 1st set and win the match @7.45 great price to me. He did it 3 times at Monte Carlo and Haase played 1 match here might start strong and choke in the end which he usually does.

Kukushkin vs Anderson - ATP Madrid
this could be an awkward match for Anderson against a  very in form Kukushkin and I 'll be backing the Kazakh -1.5 sets @ 6.67 with Pinnacle with a saver +1.5 sets @ 2.00 with Paddy Power.
good luck all. 
Just a tie break away from a tasty winner - Kuku even had a BP @ 4-4 in the 2nd set 

Kukushkin vs Anderson - ATP Madrid
this could be an awkward match for Anderson against a  very in form Kukushkin and I 'll be backing the Kazakh -1.5 sets @ 6.67 with Pinnacle with a saver +1.5 sets @ 2.00 with Paddy Power.
good luck all. 
Just a tie break away from a tasty winner - Kuku even had a BP @ 4-4 in the 2nd set 

Harrison @2,55 (Marathonbet)
Not in great form, but the H2H against Garcia-Lopez (5-0) is too good to let it pass.
 
 

firstly, you never know the true position with these injury situations as it has now become a financial and tactical part of tennis. Raonic was slightly shortened this morning which would seem a plus. On the whole in my opinion it would have to take a specialist grinder in the Bautista range to bet against a serving monster like Raonic at this sort of tentative stage. Even that still requires luck.

Sam Stosur 2.63 v Sloane Stephens Bet365
Stosur has a semi final and 2 ro16 finishes in the last 3 years in Madrid. This is probably her favourite surface. A 2-0 head to head record v Stephens on clay. Slower conditions would favor Stosur over Stephens and the variety will see her through
I don't see any motivation for Stephens on clay outside of Fed Cup. Happy to back the bookies underdog against Stephens

Here's my tally for the week:
Jaziri vs Ilhan +106.00
P.Sousa vs J.Sousa -100.00
Jaziri (win) vs Cilic +450.00
Jaziri (+1.5 sets) vs Cilic +138.00
Jarry (-1.5 sets) vs Ojeda +102.00
Giorgi vs Buzarnescu over 2.5 sets +145.00
Tsitsipas - Tiafoe - Daniel - Jaziri - 4 fold -100.00
Halep, Sandgren, Siniakova - treble -100.00
Zhang (win) vs Osaka +230.00
Zhang (+1.5 sets) vs Osaka +95.00
Profit to £100 stakes = £966.00
Profit to £10  stakes = £96.60
and if Tsitsipas managed to win his tie break that would have been another £185.70 for £10 stakes!
thanks everyone for all the likes 

Looking good so far Yogg! Great pick! 

Shuai Zhang vs Naomi Osaka WTA Madrid
I think the bookies have got this very wrong today and I'll be backing Zhang@ 3.30 with William Hill
with a saver on Zhang +1.5 sets @ 1.90 with Pinnacle
good luck all.

 

oh man that was so close.
bet lost on a tie break. 

Daniil Medvedev (+1.5 sets) to beat Kyle Edmund at 1.92 with Pinnacle
Edmund looks a bit overrated to me here. Neither guy is a natural clay courter and I really can't see what makes Edmund a 1.40 favourite here. His run in Marrakech I guess, but I'd say that the value is fully with the Russian youngster here, either on the match line or the set handicap.

This is the cold chill of deceptive reality that the game carries along with it; a kind of calculated and sinister madate that everyone is governed by however clever we may think we are. It is no secret that 95% of parlays most times and every time lose out by one. (Somewhat of a demonic code factored in) I can lecture on this for hours on end without the person even coming close to comprehending the basis on which this intricate subject matter is predicated upon. I call it the biggest fraud of all time ever known ....or in this case not known to man.
Simply put, any result that is 1 away, is default and normal no matter what it turns out to be. 12 out of 13, 24 out of 25 etc. I regard it as originating from this sinister mandate. The code was designed by forces unknown to induce "deeper involvement"(The notion that you will be encouraged to try harder knowing that you were only one away. In reality you are light years away.) It is the reason why I would consider a person who got 4 or 5 from 7 as a much better result than one who gets 20 out of 21. Still, in plain visible terms, good result!

Giorgi vs Buzarnescu - WTA Prague
this is my match of the day and I'm really looking forward to watching this on eurosport today.
I think this will be close and I slightly favour the underdog Buzarnescu but as I can get better odds for her to win one set in the overs betting (over 2.5 sets @2.45 with unibet) than I can for her to win two sets in the match betting (2.33 with unibet) I'll be going overs. 
WON 

Giorgi vs Buzarnescu - WTA Prague
this is my match of the day and I'm really looking forward to watching this on eurosport today.
I think this will be close and I slightly favour the underdog Buzarnescu but as I can get better odds for her to win one set in the overs betting (over 2.5 sets @2.45 with unibet) than I can for her to win two sets in the match betting (2.33 with unibet) I'll be going overs. 
WON 

If you want a straight answer without me having to really think deep, not all those favs can win for sure. They all look beatable at first glance. Tsitsipas might just be running on reserve at 3/10(The danger odd) Kvitova could be anything but genuine. Zhang looks quite playable on the handicaps. Edmund? In no man's land. Could be on generic form as he did last week before imploding. Chung although fresh to the clay should have enough in hand to beat Klizan. Might shed some more light on a couple of them again just before play!!

well done on the sousa bet, i lost on that one.
I think Cilic had too much wedding cake and whatever else you have just after getting married. 
 

Cilic vs Jaziri - ATP Istanbul
Cilic is back to defend his title here after getting married last week and a chance for Jaziri to continue his good form after running Dimitrov so close last week and a walk in the park against the local Ilhan a couple of days ago.
I'll be backing Jaziri to win @5.50 (William Hill) with a saver on Jaziri +1.5 sets @2.38 (Paddy Power) hoping that Mrs Cilic has had an effect on Marin's fitness this past week. 
BOTH BETS WON  

Diae El Jardi (+9) to beat Katerina Zavatska at 1.58 with Marathonbet
Right, so, this seems a tad interesting to me. For some reason, I found myself watching the Rabat doubles yesterday, El Jardi was playing with someone against Peterson/Sorribes Tormo. They lost, but I did like this girl Diae, athletic build, decent power in shots, clearly enjoying playing in home conditions. She did incredibly poorly in the Fed Cup and I don't expect her to do any wonders against Zavatska, but this bet needs three games for a push and four for a win and I think Diae could get that based on her doubles performance. I have to admit that yesterday was the first time I saw/heard about Diae El Jardi, but I don't think she's as bad as the odds suggest. I don't really believe that any of the big odds are worth chancing, but this bet I quite like.

Dusan Lajovic to beat John Millman at 1.78 with Marathonbet
Lajovic wasn't that bad last week and needs to start winning again, so why not here in Istanbul, where he had a decent run last year? Millman could also be dead tired after the long and tiring week in Budapest with so many paused matches.