Jump to content
Download the PL Forum App!
** ELO Ratings are now back **

Valiant Thor

Regular Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,023

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    15

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Valiant Thor

    MrFox Spreadsheets

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: MrFox Spreadsheets You can buy off the shelf trading tools which will place your bets for you at a specific price , re-calculated stake and time you set. That is the nearest you will get to your problem, unfortunately I cannot recommend one as I don't use any of those products.

    MrFox Spreadsheets

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: MrFox Spreadsheets

    btw is there any experts here that use the square root staking system? Is there anyway of placing a few bets in one go rather than placing a bet and having to wait for the result in order to update the next stake. Reason I ask is that for a sport like horse racing its better doing all the bets in the morning where your getting the better odds.
    The square root staking system is a progressive/regressive system. Therefore the next bet is wholly dependant on the previous bet, therein lies the obvious answer to your question.

    Creating my own odds

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Creating my own odds

    you miss the point, if a 10/1 shot should be 8/1, the value is there in that effectively it should win once in 8 making you a profit overall, bets that win at prices shorter than they should be are still bad bets in terms of value, you have to plave the losing bets to in effect receive the value even mugs win sometimes
    The problem with that type of thinking which IMO is value backers downfall is that you are only backing that single event once not the 8 times you state you need for that particular bet to win to according to the odds.

    Creating my own odds

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Creating my own odds

    Well after a few weeks of tough luck betting last month I decided to revamp my betting style and begin creating my own odds for races, in search of they much debated 'value' bets. My odds SP Lady Crossmar 7/4 7/4 Steelriver 4/1 2/1 Be Royale 6/1 11/2 Galatian 9/1 10/1 Hipz 15/2 11/1 Baltic Prince 14/1 20/1 Sakhalin Star 50/1 33/1 Two Pancakes 100/1 66/1
    I would never have bet Hipz as it was not the best horse in the race (according to my ratings) I priced that race up myself yesterday and got Lady Crossmar as my top rated at my estimated price of 2/1(3.00) I was able to get 3.5 BV (17% est value) so it became a bet 2hn01nb.jpg (due to nr's R4 10p) The way I do a race is a) Must be my highest rated in the race (I cant back a horse which I don't think is the best in the race regardless of price) b) The bookies price must be greater than my estimation by a min of 10% to a max of 50% (min/max range tested with over 10yrs data against my ratings) Only 1 race qualifies today the 3.55 @ Epsom 15qsw84.jpg Each horse has its own ratings which are normalised against each horse in the race with the max normalised rating being 100. from there I price each horse (R-odds) only the top rated horse is VR (value rated) against my best horse on normalised ratings. If the VR is between .1 and .5 then it is a bet no other horse is checked. Yaakoom is my only bet today (my odds 5.41 book 7 VR .29)

    MrFox Spreadsheets

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: MrFox Spreadsheets

    There's one tipster called Hugh Taylor and his average winning odds for last year was like 12.4 which is very high and impressive. You would think with any system that sort of average would mean you would be in profit.
    Even if he broke even, on 500 bets a year he would encounter a run of around 74 losing bets in a row, if he was putting real money down that would take some real belief in his own ability to keep going,if he's playing for pennies its neither here nor there.

    MrFox Spreadsheets

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: MrFox Spreadsheets The spreadsheet is correct its your test that is wrong. After bet 4 your banks is over 50% higher (161.93) than than the base floor of 100, therefore you move up to the next base floor level (100*1.5) = 150 That then equates to 150*0.05 = 7.5 + sqrt(161.93-150) = 7.5 + sqrt(11.93) = €10.95 for bet 5 After bet 6 loses you bank (142.49) is now below the new base floor level of 150 so bet 7 reverts back to the safety net of 5% of 150 (7.50) until your main bank goes back above 150 (after the winner of bet 10) then the added sqrt part kicks back in to increasing your stake to 11.37. NB The problem with these progressive staking plans are you end up putting your larger stakes on the losing bets and your smaller stakes on the winning bets when what you really require is the opposite.

    MrFox Spreadsheets

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: MrFox Spreadsheets *quotes are from another site*

    But on the spreadsheet for some reason its showing the return as €65.81 rather than €65.80
    Thats just excel rounding up to two decimal places (is it really that significant)
    This totally has me confused as I read up on what "floor" means
    I'd prefer if that column wasn't there as its confusing me
    The floor column is there as the initial bank datum to compare against the actual bank. If the actual bank is higher than the floor bank it takes 1% of initial bank (floor) + the sqrt of the difference between the two. If it is less, then it takes 1% of the initial bank (floor) as the next stake (€20) Once the bank has increased by 50% (1.50*bank)this is added on to your initial bank (floor) thus making your (2000) into 3000. Thereafter if you ever drop below €3000 the base stake will be 1% of that until your actual bank is higher. Ad Infinitum If its confusing that much, just right click on column I then click hide (to get it back highlight cols H & J and then rightclick and click unhide)
×
×
  • Create New...