Urosito

Alright, here we go with the final Grand Slam of the season and, before I begin, I'd just like to wish good luck to everyone who's going to be betting on it!
Now - I haven't had a long post in a while and this is a good excuse to have one, so here we go. This season has been quite juicy so far, especially if compared with the disaster that went by the name of 2017, so I'm going to be slightly more ambitious with the first round than I usually am. There are many interesting matches and I have a good feeling about quite a few of them, so I'm going to go for all kinds of bets in the very first round and no outrights at all. If I was asked for some tips, however, I'd have Nadal and Halep as the favourites and Bertens and Tsitsipas as the dark horses. Let's hope all goes well and that there will be a profit to be collected before the second round begins.
Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Aljaz Bedene at 1.90 with Ladbrokes
The first bet that I'm going to go for is on the man who's made me so many points a few weeks back. That was on clay and this is on hard, but Nikoloz is reasonably universal and the fact is that he should be in a much better position going into this than Bedene, who's had pretty much zero match practice in recent times and who might be here just to collect the check. The last point might be stretching things a bit, but really, one needs to have some matches under the belt given the long match format and Bedene doesn't have that, so opposing him at odds that aren't even all that skinny makes a lot of sense to me.
Jil Belen Teichmann to beat Dalila Jakupovic at 1.67 with BetVictor
The one player that I really liked in the qualifiers was Jil Belen Teichmann and I think that she has every chance of getting a first round win as well. Jakupovic is one of those players that have just dodged having to qualify - and I have to tell you that I'm not sure that she would've been able to go through three rounds of tennis if she was asked to do that honestly. She made a lot of great results during the grass court seasons, with wins over Mertens and even Osaka, but, since then, she's done little of note. And, even more importantly, her last outing ended with her retiring in the middle of the second set. It's the same case as with Bedene then, with us getting two ways of winning here - either Teichmann beats her fair and square or Jakupovic just shows up for the check. I'm more than happy to chance that.
Dayana Yastremska to beat Karolina Muchova at 1.53 with Paddy Power
Karolina Muchova was another player that I quite liked in the qualifiers, but she faces a much sterner test than Teichmann here in the form of the in-form Yastremska, who really has impressed me on quite a few occasions in this season. What I really appreciate about her is the fighting spirit that she brings with herself, every single time that I saw her she was fighting to the end, with her recent match in New Haven being a splendid example of that if I remember correctly. She's one of the younger talents that I've been tracking in this season and she's generally been playing a level above Muchova, so, despite the qualifying success, I think that the Czech is going to come up well short here.
Fernando Verdasco to beat Feliciano Lopez at 1.66 with Ladbrokes
As much as one might like these two guys, it's fair to say that this match is going to be played in the twilight of their careers. That said, it seems to me that Lopez is losing his skills almost as quickly as Ferrer, while Verdasco still has a couple of good performances in himself, which is why I'm going to back him here. The big problem that I have with Lopez is that he seems to have lost a lot of endurance over the last year or two - and that is a tremendously important issue given that this match could go on for four or five sets.
Marco Cecchinato to beat Julien Benneteau at 1.67 with William Hill
Julien Benneteau is another player that's in the twilight of his career. I can't quite remember when exactly he wants to call it quits, whether it's this very US Open or it's one of those French tournaments at the end of the season, but that doesn't really matter. He was quite poor in Winston Salem and I'm not sure that he will be able to put up one last heroic performance. Cecchinato has almost no (or no) wins on hard courts, but he came close to getting some recently against much tougher and sharper players, so this is his chance - and, over five sets, he could even just outlast the Frenchman and win that way.
Vasek Pospisil to beat Lukas Lacko at 1.82 with Pinnacle 
Just a few months ago, I was ranting about how I don't like Pospisil in the singles and I was backing Bolt to win a set against him in one of the grass court tournaments, that much I remember. I haven't fallen in love with him since, don't get me wrong, but he has got some wins and some confidence back, while Lukas Lacko has been just moving around without soul in recent months. I was thinking about backing him against Zeballos in Winston Salem, but I dodged that bet and luckily so. Pospisil also has the home advantage here in a sense, so I'd have him as a somewhat bigger favourite than the odds suggest.
Jason Kubler to beat Roberto Bautista Agut at 4.33 with Ladbrokes
I haven't really covered any underdogs just yet, but here we go, I did manage to find one that I quite like in the form of Jason Kubler, who did really well in a couple of Challengers recently and who could find himself in a favourable spot against Roberto Bautista Agut, who didn't really play on American hard courts in the recent weeks. In fact, he hasn't played for more than a month now, with fitness issues troubling him the last time out. I reckon that he's sufficiently fit given that he's decided to show up, but Kubler is a good enough player to take advantage of any rustiness and I think that he'll be more than fired up for it given all the injury struggles he had in his career. He appears to be without pain now - and the odds for him to win a match against a presumably rusty opponent look tasty enough.
Jan-Lennard Struff (vs. Smyczek) + Agnieszka Radwanska (vs. Maria) at 1.95 with Paddy Power
Robin Haase (vs. McDonald) + Natalia Vikhlyantseva (vs. King) at 2.08 with Bet365
Aryna Sabalenka (vs. Collins) + Daria Gavrilova (vs. Sorribes Tormo) + Kiki Bertens (vs. Kr.Pliskova) at 1.93 with Bet365
Diego Schwartzman (vs. Delbonis) + Barbora Strycova (vs. Lao) + Fabio Fognini (vs. Mmoh) at 1.95 with Paddy Power
Backing a lot of reasonably big favourites isn't particularly difficult, but these picks aren't completely mindless, so there you go. Smyczek has been rather dreadful recently and I'm afraid that the end of his career might be near, Radwanska looked decent against much tougher opposition in recent weeks, Robin Haase has played himself into some solid form (and McDonald's desperate performance against Edmund doesn't inspire any confidence either), Vania King has played pretty much no successful singles in this season, Collins was desperately poor out there in recent weeks (I saw the match against Yastremska and I was shocked actually), Gavrilova nearly upset Sabalenka and SST is two steps down, Kr. Pliskova has been largely non-existent lately, etc. As always, it'd be a bit lucky to see all these guys deliver, but I'm hoping that we get only one letdown in this batch.

Andrey Rublev to beat Felix Auger Aliassime at 2.00 with William Hill
Rublev is defending champion in Umag, likes clay, conditions suit him, and he'll be motivated to repeat good result here. Fitness level is questionable, though, he hasn't played since Monte Carlo, but I think he's just too solid for Felix at this moment. Although Felix is a great talent, he's too inconsistent, lost to players like Londero, De Bakker and Griespoor in past month, so Rublev should have the advantage here.
Vera Zvonareva to beat Ons Jabeur at 2.23 with Unibet
Ons is a strange player, she can play really great tennis at times, but also can look like a recreational player if she's not in the right mood. Vera is in a good rhythm, played very good in London, and demolished Alexandrova in first round here 6-2 6-1. That same Alexandrova routinely won against Jabeur in Budapest a few days ago, so... Maybe not the wisest logic, but I think it's worth a try.
Jason Jung to beat Tim Smyczek at 1.91 with William Hill
Jung is playing some really good tennis this year. He's already beaten Stakhovsky and Mahut here, two very solid grass-courters. I never trusted Smyczek, moody and mediocre player, so I'll go for Jung here. Year ago, at Ilkey challenger on grass, Jung won in two sets 6-2 6-4. Let's repeat that result, Jason.
Good luck, my friends.

Andrey Rublev to beat Felix Auger Aliassime at 2.00 with William Hill
Rublev is defending champion in Umag, likes clay, conditions suit him, and he'll be motivated to repeat good result here. Fitness level is questionable, though, he hasn't played since Monte Carlo, but I think he's just too solid for Felix at this moment. Although Felix is a great talent, he's too inconsistent, lost to players like Londero, De Bakker and Griespoor in past month, so Rublev should have the advantage here.
Vera Zvonareva to beat Ons Jabeur at 2.23 with Unibet
Ons is a strange player, she can play really great tennis at times, but also can look like a recreational player if she's not in the right mood. Vera is in a good rhythm, played very good in London, and demolished Alexandrova in first round here 6-2 6-1. That same Alexandrova routinely won against Jabeur in Budapest a few days ago, so... Maybe not the wisest logic, but I think it's worth a try.
Jason Jung to beat Tim Smyczek at 1.91 with William Hill
Jung is playing some really good tennis this year. He's already beaten Stakhovsky and Mahut here, two very solid grass-courters. I never trusted Smyczek, moody and mediocre player, so I'll go for Jung here. Year ago, at Ilkey challenger on grass, Jung won in two sets 6-2 6-4. Let's repeat that result, Jason.
Good luck, my friends.

Routine win for Djere, but also for Hercog, Bara was bad. Hope tomorrow will be more luck

Laslo Djere to beat Maximilian Marterer at 2.10 with Bet365
Marterer is unstable player, and clay is not he's favourite surface. He lost very easily on clay in previous 2-3 months to Maden, Martin and Carballes Baena, similar level players like Djere. In first round, Djere was very solid and eliminated Cuevas, while German had problems with Serdarusic, local mediocre player. I think it will be a close match, and Djere could win it.
Irina Maria Bara to beat Polona Hercog at 2.55 with betfair
Bara is a typical clay courter, has home crowd support on her side, and a few nice wins in qualies and round 1 (Zavatska, Cadantu, Tomova). Hercog is not an easy opponent, but can be prone to unforced errors, she had some trouble with Ruse in round 1. They played one match so far, last year also on clay, and Bara won in two sets. I think it's worth a try.
Good luck to everyone

Laslo Djere to beat Maximilian Marterer at 2.10 with Bet365
Marterer is unstable player, and clay is not he's favourite surface. He lost very easily on clay in previous 2-3 months to Maden, Martin and Carballes Baena, similar level players like Djere. In first round, Djere was very solid and eliminated Cuevas, while German had problems with Serdarusic, local mediocre player. I think it will be a close match, and Djere could win it.
Irina Maria Bara to beat Polona Hercog at 2.55 with betfair
Bara is a typical clay courter, has home crowd support on her side, and a few nice wins in qualies and round 1 (Zavatska, Cadantu, Tomova). Hercog is not an easy opponent, but can be prone to unforced errors, she had some trouble with Ruse in round 1. They played one match so far, last year also on clay, and Bara won in two sets. I think it's worth a try.
Good luck to everyone

@CzechPunter
Good tips, man. I'm following everything, except Paire and Hsieh. (Paire is too unpredictable - can lose from everyone, and Baena is solid clay-courter. Peterson can play some veery good and powerful tennis. Something like 6-0 6-1 for Rebecca if she's on wouldn't surprise me. Also Hsieh can easily win, if Peterson is off.) 
I would add Dodin (home court, Watson is a mess), Giraldo (some great matches in qualies, Baghdatis is awful on clay), Sandgren (solid on clay, more experienced than Hurkacz), Shapovalov (pure quality over Millman) and Berdych (pure quality over Chardy) as relatively safe bets. 
Also, Harrison over Marterer, Querrey over Tiafoe, Arruabarena over Babos, Schmiedlova over Begu, and Dolehide over Golubic could be potential upsets. 
Good luck to everyone!