four-leaf
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Posts posted by four-leaf
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Re: October 28 - November 3 Betting on a likely treble in round one. Prices from Pinnacle parlays. Benoit Paire to beat Pierre-Hugues Herbert (2-0 sets) 1.84 In-form Paire to make Herbert come down to earth showing him how good tennis really is played. Ok! Credit to him for getting this far but it will end here in straight sets against Benoit who is really solid on indoor hardcourts that I saw on my own countrys swedish television livestream in Stockholm Open. Nicolas Mahut to beat Alexander Dolgopolov 1.96 And Mahut is playing quite good right now and he likes these courts to. Something Alexander is all anti playing on. Igor Sijsling to beat Marin Cilic (hcp -2) 1.96 And last but not least the hero of the draw goes to dutchman Igor who playing himself into this coming up against a rusty Cilic who's been banned for some time and just comes back in the last tournament. To little, to late for Marin. Their head-to-head stands at 1 win for Marin. Memphis indoor hardcourt, round two 2013 Marin Cilic 7-6(2), 3-6, 7-6(7) A heavily fought encounter in three sets over two hours. I recon Sijsling has a pretty good opportunity to get revenge here coming in from qualies more warmed up with match practise. For 3/10 stake at Pinnacle total price 7.07
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Re: October 28 - November 3 Grigor Dimitrov to win ATP BNP Paribas 95.38 Pinnacle The game's biggest stars are in action this week in Palais Omnisports de Paris-Bercy, with five former champions present. David Ferrer is looking to retain his title, having claimed his first ATP World Tour Masters 1000 crown here a year ago. The No. 3 seed, who halted the stunning run of Jerzy Janowicz in last year's final, is coming off consecutive final runs in Stockholm and Valencia. Fellow Spaniard Rafael Nadal is chasing history in Paris as he looks to become the first player to win six ATP World Tour Masters 1000 crowns in one year. Roger Federer finds himself in Novak Djokovic's half of the draw and has a potential rematch of the Swiss Indoors Basel final with Juan Martin del Potro in the quarter-finals. Federer needs one match victory to qualify for the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals for a 12th consecutive year. Stanislas Wawrinka and Richard Gasquet reside in the other remaining qualifying spots, with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga close on their heels. Milos Raonic needs to reach the final to have an outside chance at punching his ticket to London. Tommy Haas, Nicolas Almagro and Mikhail Youzhny also have faint hopes of qualifying if they win the title. Grigor has a hard task in the first round vs Michael Llodra. The lefty has been granted a wild card but he's in no form to dispose Grigor off. Dimitrov won the only full match they played in Orleans challenger three years ago in the semi-final. The poor form of Michael who is a Paris native will be cheered upon by the crowd but I don't think it's enough to stop Grigor. Up next after Michel for Grigor is Fabio Fognini who has a bye in to the second round. He lost to Fabio in Sydney in the beginning of the year on the outside hardcourt but he's made a turn around from that enough to take revenge against the italian and should show that the loss in the beginning of the year should not bother him on this indoor hardcourt. The main opponents is Juan-Martin Del Potro and Roger Federer ofcourse. Del Potro last year lost here in the second round and after his success in his last three tournaments I think he will have no motivations here just like last year. Roger is in form, but Grigor missed a lot of chances against him in Basel and I think he will be fully motivated to take revenge and also Roger does'nt have the right motivation coming in to this tournament this season since he is only one match win away from qualifying for London next week. A mutch bigger event to load up his guns for and that will be a decisive factor here also for Juan-Martin who already is qualified for next week. This might be a big chance for the Bulgarian talent. Last year saw some surprising results and one of the finalists was Jerzy Janowicz, who has started from the qualifications. This year I am could be another surprise, but not as big as Jerzy making the final last year. Dimitrov shined on indoors courts ,where his big serve gives him enough advantage so he can finish off points early. Grigor also does'nt have to headcase problems in longer rallies where he is very solid from the base line so he can stay in he points and eventually find his winners. As usual the topdogs in the competion has a questionable motivation for this last Masters and we might see some early exits by the top 4 players. Dimitrov is loved by the crowd thanks to attractive style of playing. I think with little more concentration and luck he could win this tournament. A minor stake to win this tournament is not so bad thinking I belive.
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Re: October 21 - October 27
yes yes maybe you're right but it's finale so im sure it will be a long match and as i said Del Porto dont let Federer win easy and vice versa' date=' im sure it will be 2:1, it's very possible about over 25 games for a 3/10 stake[/quote'] All credit to you dude! You were right! -
Re: October 21 - October 27 Real bad effort there from Tomic in the first set. I'm writing the longest write-up and it turns out to be fail. Great! I won't bother to write any longer posts from now on.
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Re: October 21 - October 27 Bernard Tomic to beat Pablo Carreno Busta (-1.5 sets) for a 3/10 stake at 2.10 bet365 The odds have gone down from 2.50 to 2.10 on this bet but it's still worth taking at evens. Bernard Tomic should grind down this Pablo Carreno-Busta guy in straight sets today i think. He was solid against Dr.Ivo so I belive he's got one more straight setter in his game today. He's serving about as good as a clock right now. His level seems to have hit a high note for Paris. One last tournament before the end of this year and Tomic will give his all to get qualified here and try to win at least in the first round if he gets a suitable opponent in the main draw. Taking down Dr.Ivo 7-6 7-6 showed some grit from Bernard yesterday. He showed quite a lot patience not getting stressed when serving and nerves of steel which he is going to need today against an even more mobile opponent on court with good footwork which Pablo has. Pablo even has a pretty good footwork on the courts of Bercy but it's not his best surface which is clay so he's not going to have the neccesary level to bother Tomic in this match. He won't create any breakpoints opportunities on Bernards serve I belive. He will have to work very hard to get any breakpoint chances if he is to win this match. He's truly a rightfully underdog. Pablo should'nt be to hard opponent cause he doesnt have the game for these kinds of courts so Bernard with his awkward style of tennis and his slice balls will milk the mistakes out of him and pull off another straight sets win.
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Re: October 21 - October 27 Roger Federer to beat Juan Martin Del Potro for a 4/10 stake 2.38 Pinnacle I don't think Roger Federers career is going to the end yet. He still has a contract with Halle showing up on court until he's 35 I belive it was. He's not on the raise exactly but he's displaying a very good level this week in his hometown of Basle. Juan-Martin does'nt look quite as sharp as Roger this week I have to admit so I'm picking the swiss homefavourite to win this. A big mistake making Roger the underdog in his own backyard. Just like making Nadal underdog in his own backyard in Monte Carlo. Backing the swiss giant here to win this title one last time.
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Re: October 21 - October 27 Some days are better then other days and today was a really good day for us.. There's so many good posts here so I feel like I have to contribute with something myself to. Tomic 2.31 was at pinnacle also ofcourse but I missed to write that.
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Re: October 21 - October 27 Here's two bets I like pretty mutch... Roberto Bautista Agut to beat Paul-Henri Mathieu 1.909 pinnacle I sure belive Paul-Henri will try to qualify ofcourse but this is an ideal situation for Roberto. He's facing an opponent who just traveled and played a few matches and should be a bit fatigued. I won't be analysing more then this so this is it and I'm only backing the player expected to be less tired here. Bernard Tomic to beat Ivo Karlovic 2.31 And once again I go against the Dr.Ivo here. Tomic took him down in three sets in asia. And I'm willing to back him again though he retired in his last match but Bernard has a pretty good grip on Ivos game and does read his serve pretty well. Enough to find a break to win also this match against Dr.Ivo so no more thinking for me and this could be something good I've found.
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Re: October 21 - October 27 So many great calls here this week and two days left to see what's coming :) Really looking forward to it. Let's win and then win some more friends to gear up for Paris and London after that and last but not least to Davis cup final.
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Re: October 14 - October 20
This Sela... It's like Ajax winning against ... Dinamo Zagreb 7-0 two games and now when they play in Zagreb' date=' Ajax can't find the net. Completely retarded, I'm sorry if I misled anyone to place a bet and I hope I am only one loosing for now...[/quote'] No worries. It happens to everyone to make mistakes like this. Just make sure you don't include all bets on the same coupon. I hade Sela in my five-fold but not in my other bets so I will lose my five-fold because I picked Sela -3.5 but I've still got two more coupons standing after this. -
Re: October 14 - October 20
Back Vasek Pospisil (-2.5) to beat Robin Haase for a 2/10 stake at 2.03 with Pinnacle Can't see past Pospisil here, I really can't. He is the much better player of the two right now and doesn't seem to be suffering from the slumps that often bother these young talents, so I expect him to prove his worth by beating the Dutchman today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/pospisil-vs-haase-betting-vasek-pospisil-to-continue-his-long-run-of-impressive-results-with-a-win-against-haase Back Miloslav Mecir (+5.5) to beat Tommy Haas for a 2/10 stake at 2.16 with Pinnacle I like Mecir here for some reason, even though I naturally expect Haas to win this at the end of the day. The Slovak, however, seems to be playing intelligent tennis and has the groundstrokes that are required to trouble Haas, so I can see him covering this plus handicap today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/mecir-vs-haas-betting-miloslav-mecir-has-what-it-takes-to-win-a-few-games-against-the-world-s-number-twelve Back Daniel Brands (+4) to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga for a 2/10 stake at 2.08 with Pinnacle Brands looked good in his first match of the week, holding his serve with easy and returning surprisingly well against Haider-Maurer, so I think that there is every chance that he is going to be a real threat to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/brands-vs-tsonga-betting-the-big-hitting-german-can-do-some-damage-in-vienna-on-thursday
I hesitate a bit about Tsonga +4 acctually, I just don't dare taking it. Have taken so many other bets already. But I really got to agree about Mecir +5.5 and Raonic 2-0 is most likely but I just don't belive it's going to be in less then 23 games. That leaves me with the option of 7-6 6-4 to Milos. Breaking Pim-Pims serve is just not something Milos will do easily and in other matches he often finds it hard to break serve. Even if you strongly belive in straight sets for Milos I doubt it's going to be a cakewalk. Pim-Pim has a lot of routine and his confidence really is skyrocketing with the support from the homecrowd. His serve really is a sledgehammer even on second serves. I'm looking forward to this match really. Gonna be a pleasure to watch. Some real good tennis expected from both players. Sela in straights looks very promising. Some good bets posted here today I think. Hope we don't get dissapointed. I have taken Mecir +5.5, really like that one. Good luck everybody!I was watching Janowicz v Garcia-Lopez match yesterday. I'm 100% sure I would play better than Guillermo, he was falling apart. Complete disaster and I had luck in Monfils match, since I backed Monfils Under 12.5 games... Let's see what store has for today. ---------- Johansson Joachim - Raonic Milos Amazing odds for Raonic victory in Stockholm today! 11th on ATP, Milos Raonic is playing against Johansson Joachim, who was inactive since August 2011 till this tournament. He advanced to main draw trough qualifiers beating Chvojka Erik (472nd), Bachinger Matthias (146th), Dzumhur Damir (216th) and eventually Falla Alejandro (112th) in the first round. Bachinger and Chvojka made him push to extra games in one set per match, but still I can't tell that his victories were amazing achievement. Raonic is pursuing his first appearance in London ATP World Tour Finals and I beleive that he will demolish his todays opponent in straight sets. Up till now he has 8-1 score on Indoor courts, loosing to Wawrinka a week ago. We all know that Milos Raonic is one of the best servers in the game at the moment and playing against long inactive player will surely help him cruise trough this match as difference quality is too great and Milos is in quite a for lately. Only one winner for me here and odds on 2:0 Raonic victory (1.75 with BetVictor) are simply generous gift for me. ---------- Sela Dudi - Gabashvili Teimuraz Other match that cought my attention is the match between Dudi Sela (68th on ATP) and Gabashvili Teimuraz (105th on ATP) in Kremlin Cup, Moscow. Main reason for this bet is their current H2H stats that simply points all in Dudi Sela's direction. They have met two times this year (and that is two times in total) and Dudi Sela won both matches with ease. First match was played at Istanbul challenger and Dudi Sela won in straight sets 6:0, 6:2. Four days ago, they met in the finals of Tashkent challenger and Dudi Sela won that match in straight sets again 6:1, 6:2. That simply tells that Dudi Sela obviously has upper hand against Gabashvili. Another thing that swings me in straight set victory is the fact that Gabashvili has already lost a set to Mannarino in first round of Kremlin Cup. Straight sets victory is very likely to happen again here and PaddyPower gives 2.25 on that which I find very tempting to hop on! -
Re: October 14 - October 20 Two more bets... Andreas Seppi to win 2-0 vs Edouard Roger-Vasselin 2.10 bet365 I think Seppi got of to a good start against Lorenzi. He should continue with another straight sets win. Edouard don't have the form required to take a set against a top 30 player. He took out Vesely and Stakhovsky but this is where it ends. Seppi also have beaten Edouard before on hardcourt in Ortisei challenger semi-final 2011 in straight sets. It's more likely to be a straight sets win for Seppi then the odds suggest. Good price out early for tomorrow. Richard Gasquet/Evgeny Donskoy Under 20.5 2.02 Pinnacle Here I count on Gasquet to simply do better then his countryman Monfils who lost to a freakin wild card from nowhere in Vienna. Not mutch more to say about Donskoy but he has done better results on clay then he has on hard acctually before he started playing more regularly on the ATP tour when he only played challengers.
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Re: October 14 - October 20 Stockholm open Joachim "Pim-Pim" Johansson (+2.5 games) vs Milos Raonic 2.18 and also Over 23 games 1.72 Pinnacle. Been watching Pim-Pim over the years and he allways manage to stun me and the swedish audience. The guy is playing some spectacular tennis. His forehand is like a monster and he's got some heavy backhand right now also. He's a big guy with huge serve just like Raonic but mutch better serve in my opinion if you can compare these two big servers. It's allways fun to watch Pim-Pim play in front of the swedish fans and when he's on song he can beat anyone. Raonic will have a tough time here. Pim-Pim will not go down easily. Most likely one tie-break at least and high probability of this going to a decider.
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Re: October 14 - October 20 I can ofcourse not be sure to have 5 picks correct so please share your thoughts about my picks and your own ideas. Am I on the wrong track on any of these picks or have I been thinking in the right direction? Please let me know! We have to help eachother to find the best possible singles to bet on like yesterday with Kleybanova and Khachanov.
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Re: October 14 - October 20 Kremlin cup Dudi Sela (-3.5) vs Teymuraz Gabashvili 1.962 I agree about Sela who's taken two easy straight set wins over Gaba this season on the challenger tour and just recently last weekend. Stockholm open Jarkko Nieminen to beat Fernando. Verdasco 2.61 I always back Jarkko in Stockholm in a match like this. Jarkko is just not easy to put away as early as the second round in Stockholm. Just ask Berdych who lost in the second round once in Stockholm against Jarkko. He destroyed Verdasco in Indian wells this season 6-1 6-0 but that scoreline must have been because of some physical trouble for Verdasco. The head to head is otherwise tied at 3 wins each but all their matches before this feels irrelevant. A new match tomorrow and Jarkko is just to high priced for a match that is more like 50/50. Stockholm open Grigor Dimitrov (-4.5) vs Jan-Lennard Struff 2.00 Not mutch to say about Grigor here except that he was playing some good enough tennis last match to win this easy. Class difference. Struff is not over 25 years of age yet but he does'nt have what it takes to bother Grigor on hardcourt. Erste bank open Vasek Pospisil (-2.5) vs Robin Haase 1.877 This guy is just all to good for Robin who is such an error prone guy. I really don't like his chances on this surface against anyone who is at their best on hardcourt just like Vasek. Could get nasty for Robin and he could get destroyed here even if he has a pretty ok serve but it's well known that he prefers clay. For this handicap to come in I think Vasek can be trusted on his best surface. Vasek took a lot of confidence from his last match and enough to cover this handicap. WTA Kremlin cup Klara Zakopalova/Ana Ivanovic Under 19.5 1.855 I would not want to be in Klaras shoes tomorrow. Ana has had enough time to get rested in time for this tournament and she will most likely take this in two sets and one set could be a double break or it just ends with a simple scoreline as 6-3 6-4 but this feels more like an easy win for Ana. Of court quick to get some extra time to rest until next match. I have Ivanovic to win Kremlin cup also. I have not researched mutch more then head to head. Ana beat Klara 9 years ago on hard in Switzerland 6-0 7-5 and Klara is not in good enough form to acctually bother Ana. 5 leg accy on Pinnacle and all odds are from their prices they have on parlays. Not single odds. The odds on singles are higher then I post now. Let's see if I can have all these five correct. Stake 4/10 Pinnacle total odds 35.65
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Re: October 14 - October 20
Excellent work Alfie!Only Grigor left! Gogo! -
Re: October 7 - October 13 Back Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (+4.5) to beat Novak Djokovic for a 3/10 stake at 2.07 with Pinnacle I don't belive Tsonga will go down any easier then his countryman Monfils. Simply put: I'm all over this bet! For Tsonga has been quite superb since he got back even though he lost the final in Metz and an unexpected loss in Tokyo. He is reliable on serve and won't make it easy for Nole.
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Re: October 7 - October 13 Back A.Ivanovic (correct score 2-1) to beat D.Cibulkova - for a 1/10 stake at 4.27 with Pinnacle One last from me today. And a little bit more risky proposition this time. Pinnacle stands out with this price against most other bookies. Taking this risk only because I've had two very good days of betting on tennis now. I rate Ana and Dominika as pretty evenly matched on this surface. Ivanovic has an upper hand in her slightly better game especially from her backhand side. This should be a battle till the last point. In matches like this Ana delivers till the last point while Cibulkova can drop her level and lose it mentally at crucial points.
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Re: October 7 - October 13 Back P.Mayr-Achleitner/A.Kerber - Under 17.0 games for a 4/10 stake at 2.12 with Pinnacle Jumping on the Kerber wagon again as she just keeps rolling. I have no doubt she will steamroll an awful playing Mayr-Achleitner. I followed the livestream yesterday in both matches where Kerber and Mayr-Achleitner where involved and I was shocked to see how awful Mayr-Achleitner was playing infront of her home crowd. Honestly! At the same time later on Kerber was just simply amazing fending of every attack from her too aggressive opponent. Mayr-Achleitner had such an awful defense yesterday and won't be able to improve this for today when the highly motivated Kerber is on the other side of the court. It seems this can only go one way and it's under 17.
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Re: Jump Racing Thursday 10th October Hey Aidymac I need help from you or anyone who can accept my post I wrote in the tennis-thread. It's important. And I can't send you a PM since I am not registered or whatever reason it is.
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Re: October 7 - October 13 Back A.Cadantu/A.Kerber - Under 16.5 games for a 3/10 stake at 2.54 with PinnacleIf this aint value I don't know what it is. If I compare odds at bet365 with Pinnacle on this particular bet I see tremendous value here. Bet365 have 2.25 on the same bet three-ways under 17 which equals under 16.5 because three-ways includes a draw option but it's the same bet as under 16.5. Last time Cadantu faced an opponent of Kerbers calibre on hard-court was one of her lastest matches in asia when she lost brutally 6-4 6-0 against Radwanska. She is a player more used to clay conditions. This bet may well go wrong to but taken the price it's worth. Kerber had a wild-card to this tournament and often when a player as high ranked as Kerber wants a wild-card to a small tournament like this that means she means business in Linz. As she is a german player it's not so hard to understand that she is eager to play in austria where she probably will have crowd support and motivation to go far. Taken everything into the equation is would say the bet has a good chance of being correct. Late post I know and this is my second bet I post here.
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Re: September 23 - September 29 Tomic should take this match. Tomic is clearly the best player in rallies. The lad has an incredible talent. With very good serve, nice groundstrokes and good movement he can be difficult for anyone on fast surfaces. Karlovic does'nt get any younger and only has his serve to rely on. Many aces per match and hard to break but that's about it. Tomic got to the quarters in Bangkok last year so I'm pretty sure he's gonna go far also this year. Good price on Tomic and I think he takes it. Tomic to beat Karlovic 1.917 @Pinnacle
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Re: March 18 - March 31 I've done a 10/10 bet with a very large stake for me. I know it's risky but I have to trust you on this parlay and hope it will work.
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Re: March 18 - March 31
Back David Ferrer (-3) to beat Tommy Haas for a 2/10 stake at 1.97 with Pinnacle Awful couple of days for me, that's for sure. Anyway, I think that Haas really will be there for the taking today. Djokovic and Simon weren't able to do much against the German, but I think that Ferrer will, especially if he starts where he has finished in the match against Melzer. He is hitting the ball well and is improving with every single match, so I fancy him to stop the German's impressive run in the semis. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/ferrer-vs-haas-betting-david-ferrer-to-stop-the-german-s-impressive-run-20130329 Back Dudi Sela to beat Lukas Rosol for a 2/10 stake at 2.25 with Bet365 Not sure whether Rosol really deserves to be such a favourite in this match-up. Dudi Sela will hang in there and that is something that Rosol, who is capable of self-destructing with plenty of unforced errors, simply isn't going to like too much. Sela has beaten quite a few big hitters in recent weeks, so I fancy him to beat the Czech today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/sela-vs-rosol-betting-dudi-sela-might-be-worth-a-punt-against-the-czech-20130329
I just want to give my own view about the match David Ferrer vs Tommy Haas and I've found something I think is quite suitable about it. You axbx and Czech are both betting on the same match but with different outcomes that you belive in. The Spaniard won seven tournaments last season including the Masters Series crown in Paris but Haas's ability to mix and match his game will make it a stern test and the germans level is really high and you have to be a bold character to go against him. Only the ability to mix and match his game makes me shiver if I don't bet on him so betting on Ferrer to win by at least 4 games is not the safest option around. I can't even say I truly belive in myself if I'd say the spaniard can win because it's more to it for Haas then just mix'n match because he is the most dangerous player to face in a situation where everything he does ends with higher and higher confidence and my best example of that is last years final in Halle when he grinded down Federer. Haas is a unique player which Ferrer is not. There are more then just one player with the same style as Ferrer but it's just that Ferrer is the one who has succeeded in the best possible way with a lot of dicipline and belief in his game. That is what has made him stay up for so long but it's not quarante for beating mr. Uniqe german.amity: My best bet is Cilic winning the first set' date= the odds are very nice, and based on statistics and current form he really has a chance to take it. Over seems a nice bet too, as for Cilic -4,5 games I am not sure, but the odds are too good for me to skip. Tommy Haas to beat David Ferrer 2,7 @ MarathonBet I'm impressed with Tommy's serves these days. 2 of the best return players in the world couldn't do anything with the german's serves. Ferrer's return games are good as well, but as I said even Djokovic, and Simon struggled on return. Ferrer had a difficult time against Melzer. He played with a lot of unforced errors, and struggled on serve, so Haas should be able to break him a few times.
October 28 - November 3
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
Re: October 28 - November 3 Andreas Seppi to beat Philipp Kohlschreiber at 4/10 stake 2.25 Pinnacle Odds are dropping on this one and Andreas has a stable head-to-head record against Phillipp at 3-3 all 3 matches won on hardcourt and two indoors and Philipp also only won one match in this tournament before and always seems dissinterested to play. Thinking of January already mostly at this time of the year. Phillipp has never taken a set off Andreas from their two meetings on indoor hardcourts. Philipp seldom late in the season is not a good mix. He is a fragile favourite here. 2012 Eastbourne Great Britain Grass Quarters Winner Andreas Seppi 7-5, 2-1 (Phillipp retired) 2012 Rotterdam The Netherlands Hard R16 Winner Andreas Seppi 6-4, 6-2 2011 Doha Qatar Hard R32 Winner Philipp Kohlschreiber 6-2, 6-4 2010 Roland Garros France Clay R64 Winner Philipp Kohlschreiber 7-6(5), 6-3, 7-5 2009 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Paris France Hard R64 Winner Andreas Seppi 6-3, 6-3 2009 US Open NY, U.S.A. Hard R128 (or translated to round one of the grand slam) Winner Philipp Kohlschreiber 6-0, 6-4, 6-4 Head-to-head source http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=SA93&oId=K435 Good enough record for me to back Seppi in this match!