rowdy
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Posts posted by rowdy
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Re: Super 12 Final Round Well I heard the weather is pretty good too so, heres my last thoughts and bets regarding this game. I dont think theres much to worry about in regards to media and public portraying this as a dead game. For Hurricanes maybe so, but from the Crusaders point of view, not a chance. Robbie Deans has spoken publically to confirm this too. Its a must win for the Crusaders if they want any chance of hosting the final, and although they dont need to win big, they will need to score 4 tries . So all this points in favour of Crusaders to cover. In addition although Carter and Tuiali'i are being rested and will start on the bench, make no mistake that if this game looks at all close, they, plus McCaw will get a run and WILL make a difference as the opposistion starts to tire. So, although 13 is a big margian I believe it is set a little low and will add to my initial stake of 5/10 with a 3/10 -12.5 @ $2.03 Pinnacle Also, although I dont have an account I would suggest the Over 59 at sportingodds @ $2.6 is a decent punt as well. The line stands at 58.5 @ $1.90 with Bet365. so Ill take 2/10 on that.
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Re: Super 12 Final Round Anyone down near Cantebury got a weather update??
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Re: Super 12 Final Round The important thing about the Bulls game is that they will know exactly what they will need result wise to make 4th or 3rd place before they play their game. Hence it would be very wise to wait and see the results of the first 3 games b4 placing any bets on the Bulls. With the injury and health state of their team at the moment and the likelyhood of both the Blues and Highlanders loosing (hence giving them 4th spot) their is a strong chance they will field an undestrength side by resting a few key players. On the flip side a win by either the Blues Highlanders or both would mean a do or ddie match for the Bulls. Ive taken a small punt on the Stormers allready but unless u r wanting to do the same at least wait till after the NZ teams have played.
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Re: Super 12 Final Round Team news for Brumbies Reds game: Queensland Test fullback Latham will be a game time decision but seems unlikely to start. 20 year old Lloyd Johansson will make his debut in place of injured centre Paleasesa, and a reshuffle sees Tom McVerry back at 6, with McMeniman switching to lock and Vedelago moving to bench. ACTs Larkham will not start, however there is some good news for the ACT side which has been plagued with injuries for most of the season. Test openside George Smith has been cleared to play, which will give them some good counter attacking oppertunities and a general increase in class within the side. Also prop Guy Shepardson and Half back Matt Henjack both likely to recover in time from minor injuries.
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Re: Super 12 Final Round Injury forced change for the Crusaders: Laulala out, Ralph moves into centre from wing and Scott Hamilton moves into starting lineup on left wing.
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Re: Super 12 Final Round Well got the shortning of odds prediction wron, lets hope thats the only mistake. NZ TAB put out there line at 12.5 too and re adjusted their 13+ odds to $1.87. Kinda suprised by that I have to say.
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Re: Super 12 Final Round Cheers Paul. Appart from the Japanese sports Rugby and NBA are about the only 2 sports I can get enough info on in Japan to bet confidently on so..... Anyway handicaps are out -12.5 for the Crusaders game, look like better odds are available than my origional stake. Still a good bet I think.
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Re: Super 12 Final Round Blues team changes: Mulliaina out, replaced at 15 by Nacewa. Lavea out and McAllistair moves in from 12 to replace him, while Ellison comes in at 12. Ben Atigas been named at 13, and Steve Devine comes back from injury to replace injured McGrath at Halfback. To be honest it actuallly looks like one of the best all round side theyve had (on paper) for weeks!! McAllistair should do a good job at 10, while the only uncertainty I have with the backline is Ellison, but only cause I dont know much about him. Forwards are unchanged, with Braid being named to start at 7.
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Re: Super 12 Final Round Wendy the waitress strikes again!! haha Worrying signs for the Bulls ahead of their big match with the stormers. 6 players now are reported to be suffering from a virus within the Bulls camp. At this stage they are: Flyhalf Steyn Winger Ndungane Lock Botha Flanker Wannenburg Hooker Coetzee Prop Roux Obviously their is uncertainty about if of when theyll be ready to train, without doubt though it will make it a tough ask to come into the game 100% Injury concers still around for Cronjie, while JP Nel only just started training onTuesdayafter calf strain. Worth taking an early 1 unit punt on the stormers 1/10 @ $3.75
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Re: Super 12 Final Round Heres some pretty important news for the Crusaders Hurricanes game. (might be a little late but... worth getting on early b4 the odds drop even more!!) Hurricanes have decided to rest Captain Tana Umaga (out of squad), Blindside Jerry Collins and Hooker Andrew Hore (both benched). As I said before in terms end of season table positions it is very unlikely that this game, for the Hurricanes will have any bearing on who and where they play, and the fact that they have rested 3 of their best players just confirms that they are looking ahead to their semifinal match in 2 weeks. Replacements are Tane Tuipuloto, Chris Masoe, and Joe Ward. The Crusaders have also made 2 changes, Carter who moves to the bench for Mehrtens, and Mose Tuiali'i who is also relageted and replaced by Broomhall. The first is obviously a loss, then again what team could complain having Mehrts at first 5. The second though I actually think is a good move. Mose has been consistently a week link defensively, and ball handling frequently has been poor this season. Broomhall is a good solid Number 8. Hes made All Black squads before (not sure if hes got any test appearances though!?) Also they get McCaw back this week after several week on the sidelines due to manditory concussion stand down period. Hell be on the bench but should get a bit of easy run on time at the end. Anyway It makes me even more certain the Crusaders will win, and win big. Havnt been able to find any point starts yet but Crusaders 13+ on NZ TAB is available at $1.80 and Im pretty sure thatll shorten quite a bit over the coming days. Early days and obviously weather still could play a factor but 5/10 Crusaders 13+ for now. Also this game, pending weather, I would expect to be very high scoring. waiting for over under lines, but with teams both wanting to survive unscathed for the following week, defense will probably get lazy and a 40 something 20 something scoreline will be likely.
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Re: Super 12 Final Round Some early thoughts for this weeks games then: Crusaders Hurricanes Short and sweet, the Hurricanes just wont be able to handle the Crusaders up front and from there itll have to be perfect broken play Rugby from their talented backs to keep them in touch and I just cant see it happening. Weve seen the ability of the Crusaders to pile on the points at home when thhey gain forward domination this year, and theyll be trying to do so again Friday nighht to give themselves a chance at top qualification, while the Hurricanes are likely to finish 3rd no matter what the match outcome. Obviously weather could be a factor but I would assue a comfortable double digit win for the Red and Blacks. Waratahs Blues: Have been backing against the Blues for several week succesfuly lately and I dont see any reason to change my ways. Injury crisis evern worse than ever now, and they find them selves up against top of table NSW in NSW. Will take NSW points start BUT in the slight chance that the Crusaders dont win earlier on in the night (hence assuring NSW top spot) I will wait tilll game time b4 placing my bet. Chiefs Highlanders: Both teams missing inspirational players in Kelleher (Chiefs) and Oliver (Highlanders) however Highlanders injury concerns much greater as Tuitivake and Blair will both miss, along with concerns over Hayden Pederson (Ankle), and Matt Saunders (Hamstring). Changes might also include a shift from 10 to 15 for Evans and the return of McIntyre (personally, I think a bad idea) Anyway Highlanders fate for a semi spot rests on the Bulls result and since the Highlanders play first they will obviously be giving their all. Chiefs while allready out came back to grab a draw away to ACT last week and really should have won it but for a missed penalty to Hill. Anyway I think it still showed the Chiefs desire to win at this end of the season, add that to the Highlanders poor record in Hamilton + injury toll, and slump in form (which for an over achieving team as they have been this year, to turn around, is very tough) I gotta go with the Chiefs. The next 3 games dont particulaly interest me too much. Reds ACT: Well before the odds came out I thought we might be able to pick up some valueon the Reds, but it looks like the bookies have also come to terms with how bad ACT is this year. Odds look to be right to me so no bet. Will get to see Reds game on replay tonight though and if they were as bad as Kane said then maybe worth a crack on ACT. Bulls Stromers: Think the outcome of this game will be depend on previous results. If it becomes a non event then maybe value on the Stormers. Other wise ud expect the Bulls to keep on with their winning ways. Cats Sharks Crap game, crap odds, not worth risking your money. Much like Reds ACT come to think of it. Right guys lets makke some money on this final round!!
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Odds NZ TAB as early guide $1.18 Crusaders v Hurricanes $4.5 -12.5 $1.27 Waratahs v Blues $3.5 -9.5 $1.70 Chiefs v Highlanders $2.05 $2.00 Reds v ACT $1.70 $1.25 Bulls v Stormers $3.75 -9.5 $1.55 Cats v Sharks $2.35 -4.5 the table stands like this: (odds to make semis) Waratahs 40 (qualified for semis) Crusaders 39 (qualified for semis) Hurricanes 34 (qualified for semis) Bulls 29 $1.15 Highlanders 27 $7 Blues 26 $10 Brumbies 24 very improbable All other teams out of contention. Injury news from round 11: Blues - Muliaina (Shoulder) 4th string halfback McGrath (Calf) Lavea (Hamstring) Braid (thigh, listed to start) Highlanders - Oliver (calf) Tuitivake (shoulder) Blair (hand) Chiefs - Kelleher (groin) Hurricanes - resting Umaga, Collins, Hore Crusaders - Laulala, resting Carter
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Re: Super 12 Round 11 Blues 10 Hurricanes 22 Havnt seen the game yet but interested to see what u thought of it Foolsgold99!!
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Re: Super 12 Round 11 Especially like the Reds too. Young team on the improve since their tough trip to SA. Think they have been improving steadily and with the addition of experienced players like Tune and Flatley in the last couple of weeks 14.5 without a doubt seems too much. Not sure about Auckland though, just saw the team theyve named but qusetion marks over the fitness level of returning players like Lavea Rawlinson Atiga, and having to play 4th string halfback I dont think itd be wise to back them. Crusaders and Bulls should be too strong, pretty big margians for away teams to cover though. Need to have a bit of a look, and find a bit more about team news but 2.65 for Chiefs over a team that hasnt won in 6 (I think) looks tempting.
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Re: Super 12 round 10 Well had a pretty good weekend over all!! Never got the chance to post plays but only loss was the Higlanders. On a hitch hiking trip through Japan at the moment but will try get back on thenet b4 the weekends games. Will be interested to get your guys thoughts asItll be tough to catch up on the last rounds games. Cheers
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Re: NBA Thursday 28th Annother good day, so until things go bottom up Ill keep going on the same theories. Following you again Tazza on Indiana to cover, and agree with Loki on Miami, and have taken them to cover as well. What is it 5 from 5 this season all with double digit margians?? Theyve just got too much for NJ to handle. As long as they can keep a lid on Carter their scoring options are just too much, they should cover comfortably.
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Re: Embassy world snooker Just wanted to thank you guys for your input to a sport that I know NOTHING about. Followed a couple of your tips and put money on Doherty, Ebdon, and Stevens to win outright at the start of the tournament. I was now hoping for advice on a staking plan from now on!? What chances do you guys give the other two remaining guys of winning it?? My bookie gives Murphy at 4.5 and McCulloch at 8. with H/H odds of 2.15 and 3 respectively for the next matches. If youve got the time Id appreciate any more insight!! Thanks
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Re: Super 12 round 10 Stormers news: Only good news is theyll get Schalk Burger back. Centre de Villiers, lock Davids, and prop Rautenbach are all out, and van Nierkerk is still ??
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Re: Super 12 round 10 By the way Kane, where are you from man?? NZ??
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Re: Super 12 round 10 Yeah mate, agree with you that McAllister should do a good job. Under almost exactly the same circumstances last year he played very well. On the whole though, Im just not sure if those odds are enough for me to be backing against the Bulls at home, and taking a very depleted Blues side. Positives for the Blues are that they have an unchanged pack, which has been playing well and improving, but the back line to me is a worry. Never thought that Muliaina at centre has looked that comfortable, and the big danger is that there is very little cover on the bench if any of the starting inside backs get injured during the game. Will be an interesting one, if anything Ill have to be backing the Bulls.
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Re: NBA Wed 27th SA Denver game U190.5 seems a sensible pick to me. Something like the last 5 between these teams have gone under this total, and SA desperate to win this one will start by stepping up their D.
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Re: NBA Wed 27th GL Taza!! Followed you again tonight with the Chicago play. Thought Id say thanks, Im relatively new to the NBA but have had a good deal of success over the playoffs from following a lot of your picks. Also backing Pheonix to cover tonight as well. Cheers Mate!!
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Re: Super 12 Top 4 Finish Blues: Tipoki baaned 3 weeks for punching. Atiga has gone home, Specer still unavailable (cheek), while Tuitopo (shoulder), and Lavea (knee) are also both probably out. I think Gibson's still injured too. It leaves a very weakened backline. Tamati Ellison and Rudi Wolf have been flown in. Not sure how theyll attempt to fill in the gaps there. Will not be inclined to back the Blues at the moment though. For this week or top 4. ACT: Bad news for ACT too. After losing Gregan for the season, in the space of 2 days they also lost Larkham and Rathbone (who coaching staff were hoping would both play) for the very important game against Wellington. Fava and Sheprdson both ?? Black listed ACT 2 weeks ago. Even more reason now. Theyve been woeful without Larkam, now without the invaluable experience of Gregan. Youd have to favour the Canes this weekend. The injuries to ACT and Blues to me makes Highlanders chances of top 4 even greater now so 6/10 @ $1.5 on Highlanders top 4 NZ TAB
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Re: Super 12 round 10 Recent Team News: Crusaders: Carter and Jack back after being rested last week. Corey Flynn back in at hooker replacing Kopelani. Also just watched there game with the Cats last nite. Inparticular players like Mose, Leo'o, Filipo, Kopelani (dropped) made a lot of basic errors. Expect the remaining 3 to try to step up for this week otherwise they could find themselves gone too. Weather was a problem but not excuse enough for the amount of errors. As long as its fine for their next game Ill be keen on takingn the spread for Cantebury. NSW: One chhange to starting team. R. Elsom comes in at 6. Freier questionable ffor bench. Blues: Tipoki baaned 3 weeks for punching. Atiga has gone home, Specer still unavailable (cheek), while Tuitopo (shoulder), and Lavea (knee) are also both probably out. I think Gibson's still injured too. It leaves a very weakened backline. Tamati Ellison and Rudi Wolf have been flown in. Not sure how theyll attempt to fill in the gaps there. Will not be inclined to back the Blues at the moment though. For this week or top 4. ACT: Bad news for ACT too. After losing Gregan for the season, in the space of 2 days they also lost Larkham and Rathbone (who coaching staff were hoping would both play) for the very important game against Wellington. Fava and Sheprdson both ?? Black listed ACT 2 weeks ago. Even more reason now. Theyve been woeful without Larkam, now without the invaluable experience of Gregan. Youd have to favour the Canes this weekend. Currently tending towards Canes, Bulls, Crusaders, Reds, and Highlanders Also margians form sportsodds: -22.5 Crusaders -9.5 QLD --1.5 Bulls Even -3.5 Hurricanes -1.5 Stormers
Super 12 Final Round
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Re: Super 12 Final Round NSW Blues NSW have been renound for starting the season brilliantly, battling in the midddle stages, and collapsing at the end over the past few seasons. This year theyve finally proved they can last. Tonight up against an injury depleted Blues team whos troubles keep getting worse I see no reason why NSW to cover is not the sensible choice. Theres gota be question marks over the conditioning of many of the Blues starting 15. Theyve got amazing talent out wide, but they have to get it there first. NSW have dominated most teams all round the park this year, and Im sure theyll be targeting the Blues weak defense around the fringes. Also note the Blues have lost their last 2 by 12 (home to Hurricanes) and 14 (away to Bulls) Anyway backing against the Blues over the last couple weeks has been profitable so 4/10 NSW -9.5 NZ TAB for me tonight (wont place this if the Crusaders happen to lose though) Doing the write up now though cause I wont have time later and expect the Crusaders to win comfortably.