rowdy
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Posts posted by rowdy
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Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) Cut my losses 2 units +14 Southland @ $2 1/2 unit exact margain 14 @ $7.5
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Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) 2 units in running @ +22 $2 SJ
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Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) Me on the other hand not feeling so good. need lions to win by 13 or more. At some point am going to have to put a cover bet on, which is not something u want to do when on odds of $1.20. Just lucky SJ eternaly continues to give value in running backing aginnst the Lions. 17 - 10 Lions as I write. PS at -23 SJ
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Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) I have to agree, it does seem to be suspicious. I tell u what though, if it is the case, its pretty deperate. Back to the game though. Although I said the half time margian might be the better option for Southland backers, I think if its gona be set that low, then in running betting would be the safer option. Ive been betting in running with SJ the whole tour, and they have very much tended to favour the Lions. Hind sights a wonderful thing, but, in all but the Taranaki game, the value has clearly been with backing against the Lions. Im not saying it will be the case again, but on the chance the Lions get out to a flyer (for once), it does look to be a much safer way to play it. On the other hand once more books come out, if shopping around were to uncover a 17.5 HT margian or better, that might be worth a look. For me though at this stage Im gona stick with my origional play. Lions 13+ All ready in now from $1.20 to $1.12
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Re: Asia XI v International XI Twenty20 Gona go 2 units on the international boys! Got some big hitting all rounders in there with Cairns Streak and Pollock, not to mentiong the likes of Lara, Flem, and Smith at the top of the order. The main reason Im on this bet though is 3 of the Asian XIs 5 bowlers are spinners. Kumble Singh and Murali. That looks like a clear disadvantage in such a form of cricket, where ud expect the pitch to be prepared in such a way where spin shouldnt be a big factor. Also I think Flems the worlds best captain, he has a very good record as a captain in benifit matches, think he could be a telling factor too. Stand to be corrected though. More of an interest bet than anything 2 units @ $1.83 International XI SJ
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Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) Heres some stats on Southland: Last years NPC results: Waikato v Southland 52-23 Southland v Taranaki 16-48 Southland v Northland 54-26 (their only win coming against last years winless team) Otago v Southland 27-10 North Harbour v Southland 35-16 Canterbury v Southland 52-13 Southland v Auckland 22-30 Bay of Plenty v Southland 38-20 Southland v Wellington 0-30 They finished 2nd last of 10 teams in NZs NPC 1st Division. Andd as we can see of their 8 losses, their average lossing margian was about 24. In general Southland is an Otago style team but just not on the same level. They tend to try and grind it out in the forwards, with not a great deal of class in the backs. Even if they did though, their forwards rarely match up with their opposition, hence their backs are usually starting on the back foot, with untidy ball. In recent years they have been struggling even more, as professional rugby in NZ if youre not in 1 of the 5 main centers for rugby then your chances of S12 selection are limited. Hence many Southland players find new homes, more often than not up the road in Otago, and year in year out their team is regularly disrupted by personal changes. Heres the team they have named for Tuesday.
Southland: James Wilson, Mana Harrison, Bryan Milne, Faolua Muliaina, Watisoni Lotawa, Richard Apanui, Jimmy Cowan, Paul Miller, Hale T-Pole, Hua Tamariki, Daniel Quate, Hoani Macdonald, Aarron Dempsey, Jason Rutledge, Clarke Dermody (captain). Reserves: Jayden Murch, David Hall, Rees Logan, Jeff Wright, Adam Clarke, Matt Petre, Pehi Te Whare. The noteable names in their squad are, Paul Miller, who the Lions should know a lot about. Had a very good S12 season with the Highlanders, and is the key for Southland going forward, as he is arguably NZs toughest man to put down. Jimmy Cowan is a good half back, has played for the ABs and was a trialist this year. Hes a tough little guy, and annother key player bound to be targeted by the Lions Loosies Other wise theres not many big names there. Hale T-Pole is a solid blind side, Dermonty has recovered form injury to captain the side at prop and is annother tough campainer, while Rchard Apuni has come back from a season in France to play at 10. 2nd 5 Faolu Muliaina may seem familiar as he is AB Mills Muliainas older brother. Theres a few names Ive never heard of, and theres some guys there that have been around the NZ rugby scene for quite a while but have never made it to the next level. All up there are 6 guys with S12 experience but really only Cowan and Miller are at S12 level, and even they have been in and out of selection over the years. Overall this willl be the Lions easiest opposition so far. Southland are however a long time NZ NPC 1st division side and they will play with as much pride, or more, than all the teams the Lions have faced thus far. I would predict Lions easily by at least 25. With a points start set at around the 32 - 33 mark. For placing bets, I guess we wait and see what lines bookies chose to come out with, but I would be hesistant to back Southland. If anything I believe they will be far more likely to cover the half time margian, what ever it is. -
Re: International Rugby 17 - 19 June Bugger!! Not a good weekend for me with the internationals! 0 from 3 and -4 unuits Over night and yesterday here were the results: Japan 18 Ireland 47 USA 30 Argentina A 34 Canada 5 England 29 Close but no cigar in all of them. The USA bet did seem to be value but they got piped by a last minute Argintina try. The one Im gutted about was the Ireland play. Seemed like it was all goin to plan with 2 converted tries in the first 10. But a couple really bad decisions by Ireland let Japan back in it. The thing Im pissed off about was a legit try by Ireland at the end of the first half that was disallowed! Maybe theres no video ref in Japan, Ill check that, but surely the touchy (right under his nose) could see it grounded. Anyway that would have been the difference between covering and not. However thems the breaks I guess. TBH Ireland played much much better than last week, and it was a very good game to watch.
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Re: International Rugby 17 - 19 June Annother quick play. Not a very big or sure one, but for todays matchup USA v Argentina, Ive got a feeling theres a little vaule to be had with USA. They are an improving team, coming up against what we could almost call an Argentina C team. Just figure bookies are favouring Argentina on name alone. Might be wrong hence low stakes. But on the possibility my hunch is right then USA half time/ full time I think is worth a go at reasonable value. 1 unit USA/USA @ $3.25 SJ
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Re: Natwest Series 18 & 19 June I still cant believe that one! The biggest shocker in Cricket Ive ever seen! Didnt really pick up much value in my series top OZ bat. Although Martyn shortened from 7 to 4.50. Dissapointed no one got the big score I was hoping for. So you guys on England for tonight then!?
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Re: International Rugby 17 - 19 June Yeah mate I watched that game, and Ireland were pretty bad! Lots of knock ons, and very liitle constructive rugby in the backs. Monst of their tries came in scrappy broken play. So what does than mean for today!? Well IMO the greater potential for improvement lies with the Irish without a doubt. Will they do it though!? Wait and see I guess. Its a beautiful day here in Japan, so all looks good for a entertaining running game. Ireland will dominate set pieces again and if they can score early, then all of last weeks penanlty attempts will turn in to attacting try scoring oppertunities. While Japan wont be able to settle with taking shots at goal, just trying to stay in touch. It really will come down to how well Ireland start I think. Their defence was good last week so I cant see them being scored on much. Not a game to bet your house on, but I feel more safe backing the Irish. Thye WILL need to improve on last week though. I took them @ -30 with SJ and felt pretty lucky when that came through. Best bookie for backing the Irish at the mo is Bluesq -33 @ $1.91 Try to win back part of that SA loss from last night 1 unit Ireland -33
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Re: Natwest Series 18 & 19 June Well only a few minutes out from this option closing. Hayden was eventually out for 37. Not exactly what I had hoped for, but at least its a 30 odd run hd start on both the favoured batsmen Gilchrist and Ponting. Martin 47* and Clarke 24* are the 2 fullahs in at the moment. and with 20 overs to go 1 of these guys will prob go on and make a decent score. For that reason, and considering their odds Im gona have a couple small plays on them too. 1 unit Martyn @ $7 1/2 unit Clarke @ $7.5
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May as well start it now I guess! No lines out yet but NZ TAB has Lion 13+ @ $1.20 Early days yet but IMO thats very easy money! Obviously best to wait and see what sort of team Southland name, but come Tuesday they will be the weakest team the Lions will have faced. They are a NZ NPC 1st Div side, and from memory have sat in at least the bottom 3 for the last 3 seasons. Southland is for those who dont know at the Southern tip of NZs South Island. In Rugby terms basically the coldest most miserable conditions to play Rugby in in NZ. Gona place 5 units on Lions to win by 13+ now, as not many bookies come out with this option and I can only see the odds shortening on the NZ TAB. Low odds but as good as a certainty IMO.
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Re: Tennis : Nottingham Open/Ordina Open www.atptennis.com seems to be a pretty good site.
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Re: Natwest Series 18 & 19 June Hey guys! This is for people with a NZ TAB account. Just noticed that they havent closed their options for Australian top bat for the series. Not too sure how long itll stay open, but with Gilly and Ponting allready gone, it would seem at this stage Hayden is a good punt. for me at this stage 1 unit Hayden @ $4 in case they close it soon. However keep an eye on it guys. Potentially it could stay open until 12.15 am NZ time. Annother 2 hours. Long enough to see how the majority of the OZs innings pans out. I think theyve just forgotten to close it cause the odds arent moving. Should be some value to be had!
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Re: International Rugby 17 - 19 June 2/10 SA -9.5 Centrebet @ $1.90 Im not too sure how confident to be in this one. France is pinning the big underdog tags on themselves. Obviously resting several players, but also claiming fatigue and lack of preperation after their provincial season, as opposed to SAs 4 weeks of preperation. Will go with the play as SA have proved to be a very strong international side recently. Tri Nations Champs last season, and particularly very strong at home. Historically its not often though that they have beaten France by 10 or more. Anyway thats history and this is now. Worth a play IMO.
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Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday Once again the bookies will set a high line. In the 30s Id expect. Wait and see aye!
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Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday Came down to the wire for all us Otago backers. End sore 30 - 19 to the Lions. Good Stuff guys!! After a quick look through the forum I think everyone came out ahead on that one. All posted plays came through!! From memory now, thats 4 of 5 the Lions have fialed to cover at full time, and 5 from 5 at half time (I think) Like the medias been saying, its a shame the ABs havent been playing in these provincial games. The way the Lions have been performing they would be lucky to have won more than 2 games if that were the case. I know itll all come down to the Tests but once again to reiterate what Ive said so far this tour about the Lions, it should be embarrasing for them to be run so close by in all the games theyve played so far, not to mention the Loss!! Very average tour for them so far!! Lucky they get a couple games from now on to show they do know where the try line is, but at this rate even Southland might show them a thing or two. As for my home team, The Mighty Manawatu, I cant say I have such high hopes. Well done CK, 3 from 3 tonight bro!!
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Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday Have decided to put 2/10 on Otago @ $1.9 Bet365 +17. Not patriculaly confident, but it does look to be the sensible choice. Weather doesnt look good at the moment or for tomorrow, so should even things up even more. Whats been quoted above does make pretty good sense. Otago should have the advantage in both the halves and in the loose. Both crucial departments in wet weather rugby. The option Ill be looking at more closely is the total points. Just had a look at the Highlanders home night game record for this past Super 12. Here were their results: 14 - 30 Loss to Blues 16 - 16 Draw Stormers 23 - 0 Win over Bulls 19 - 18 Win over ACT 20 - 41 Loss to NSW 13 - 27 Loss to Crusaders. So as you can see, for what its worth. Only 1 occasion did the total get over 44, and only once did they fail to stay within 17points of their opposition. I think the points statisticc is pretty relavent. Add to that the fact that a good portion off those games were played in late NZ Summer early Autumn, and that S12 is regarded as the world most attacking fform of Rugby. Looks good for an under IMO.
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Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday Lewis Moody is out and his replacement is Simon Easterby. Knee injury that hasnt improved enough in time. Michael Owen comes in to the bench.
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Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday I have to admit going on the form of both the NZ sides and the Lions to this point, the PS does seem to favour Otago. Weather like the Wellingotn game could play a big part. Any one got the latest from down South?? The other thing that seems to be coming quite apparent is the likely hood of Game total unders, mainly due to the solid Lions defence, and there inability to score tries. Will do a search around to see what the totals are available.
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Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday Im not saying I disagree with much of what has been quoted from the NZ Rugby forum. However, be very careful when listening to patriotic NZ rugby fans. They might be spot on, I just think they sound a little too over confident. Comparing this game to the Wellington one, might provide a little insite, but remember if it wasnt for the weather chances are the Lions would have run away with that one pretty easily. At those odds and P/S I doubt Ill be backing the Lions, however, I guess my point is for those who are placing bets, purely based on whats been said on this forum, be a little cautious. It does look to be a good Otago team, probably better on paper than the Wellingotn side. But its also a pretty similar team to the one that fell away pretty sharply in the second half of the S12, a team with a pretty much untested front row, and quite likely one that will struggle to score through their backs. Whats said above is correct, as always, if they can match and muscle up in the forwards then theyll stay in touch. All NZ teams have done that so far, so maybe no reason to suggest they wont tomorrow either!?
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Re: International Rugby 17 - 19 June 4 changes to last weekends side. 3 come in the back row, while Quinlan comes in at 12. All 4 changes look to be more experimental than form based. Ireland: 15 Girvan Dempsey (Terenure College/Leinster), 14 Tommy Bowe (Belfast Harlequins/Ulster), 13 Gavin Duffy (NEC Harlequins), 12 David Quinlan (Blackrock College/Leinster), 11 Anthony Horgan (Cork Constitution/Munster), 10 David Humphreys (Dungannon/Ulster, captain), 9 Peter Stringer (Shannon/Munster), 8 Eric Miller (Terenure College/Leinster), 7 David Wallace (Garryowen/Munster), 6 Denis Leamy (Cork Constitution/Munster), 5 Matt McCullough (Ballymena/Ulster), 4 Leo Cullen (Blackrock College/Leinster), 3 Simon Best (Belfast Harlequins/Ulster), 2 Frankie Sheahan (Cork Constitution/Munster), 1 Marcus Horan (Shannon/Munster). Replacements: tbc
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Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday Otago's named their team too: Otago: 15. Glen Horton, 14. Hayden Pedersen, 13. Neil Brew, 12. Seilala Mapusua, 11. Matt Saunders, 10. Nick Evans, 9. Danny Lee, 8. Grant Webb, 7. Josh Blackie, 6. Craig Newby (capt), 5. Tom Donnelly, 4. Filipo Levi, 3. Craig Dunlea, 2. Jason Macdonald, 1. Carl Hoeft. Res: 16. Jed Vercoe, 17. Jeremy Aldworth, 18. Andrew McClintock, 19. Alando Soakai, 20. Chris Smylie, 21. Ryan Bambry, 22. Jason Shoemark They will be missing Ryan, Hayman, and Oliver (all not released from AB camp) Hoeft has been released though. Otherwise its basically the Highlanders Super 12 side. Paul Miller at 8 isnt there as he's a Southland representative, but his replacement Webb, has a bit of S12 experience, and will be a good replacement. Tuitivake, and Ben Blair were both loan players ths year for the Highlanders so they too are out. Theyll miss the goal kicking of Blair without a doubt, but Horton should be pretty good cover. Neil Brew is also a solid player, theyll loose some attacking flair without Tuitivake though. Their front row and reserve bench, look pretty weak, but other than that, they look to have named a good team.
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Re: International Rugby 17 - 19 June France: 15 Julien Laharrague, 14 Cedric Heymans, 13 Florian Fritz, 12 Yannick Jauzion, 11 Julien Candelon, 10 Frederic Michalak, 9 Jean-Baptiste Elissalde (captain), 8 Julien Bonnaire, 7 Olivier Magne, 6 Yannick Nyanga, 5 Pascal Pape, 4 Romain Millo-Chluski, 3 Sylvain Marconnet, 2 Sebastien Bruno, 1 Olivier Milloud. Replacements: 16 William Servat, 17 Pieter de Villiers, 18 Gregory Lamboley, 19 Remy Martin, 20 Dimitri Yachvili, 21 Benoit Baby, 22 Nicolas Brusque. Only 1 player from the 2 teams that competed in last weekends French championship Final have been named in the French starting team. The rest have been givin a chance to rest. They have a pretty long tour, which heads to Australia after SA. Looks to me, a big advantage to SA. SA to WIN comfortably
Southland v Lions (Tuesday)
in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions
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Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) Final score 26 - 16 Lions, An absolute shocker by me! Managed to salvage a little, but it just blows me away how much the Lions continue to struggle. I guess this tour is proving both how strong NZ provincial rugby still is, despite professionalism taking the players off shore, but in particular how bad these Lions boys are playing. On to the tests.