jolly red
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Posts posted by jolly red
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Another race today with two that were hard to split. In the 5.50 Nottingham both Falasteen and Monnoyer have good draws from low numbers and both are better handicapped off their present mark. Both should handle conditions well, Falasteen hasn't won for a couple of years but looks on a winnable mark at present and Monnoyer recently showed a renewal of form, from his reduced mark this season. 0.5 pt Each Way on both at 16-1 and 10-1 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Two runners in the 5.00 Southwell, both by the sire, Street Cry. Both these runner's, Tatting and Men Don't Cry, are having their first outing on fibresand but judged on the sires record at the track, both will be worth an each way punt at the prices, even if you only go by the sires track record with his offspring. Tatting has winning form on polytrack and could be even better on the fibresand. Street Cry has a near 35% strike rate over todays C/D with 10 wins from 29 runs and the dams sire Mark of Esteem has produced many winners at Southwell, so on breeding Tatting should have no trouble handling the surface. The same can be said for Men Don't Cry, although yet to win a race, does have some good placed form and could also turn out to be better on the fibresand. 0.5pt Each Way on both at 16-1 Bet365
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Only one for me is over in Ireland today in 3.15 Navan with Summer Isles, a 3yo filly by Exceed and Excel out of a Pivotal mare. This filly showed some early promise as a 2yo for Ed Dunlop but never progressed, looking at the Sire and Dams Sire match ups that isn't much of a surprise as the pairing has only produced 1 2yo winner from 24 runners, the offspring of similar pairing generally progress as 3yo's and 4yo's. This filly wasn't disgraced on her first start in Ireland, in a 5f maiden, she has two of her rivals to beat, who finished ahead of her that day but they had both had a previous outing this season, whereas this filly was making her seasonal debut. 0.5pt Each Way at 25-1 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Thirsk 3.25 Colonel Mak cost his backers last time at Ascot, well backed with Ryan Moore in the saddle but put in a below par effort, compared to his previous run at Pontefract. Around this time last year won and placed in better grade handicaps from much higher mark than he's currently on. He might be getting a bit moody as he gets older but is very well handicapped at present and if he's on a going day today, should have no trouble defying top weight. 1pt Win at 10-1 Corals
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Figures starting to look bit healthier :D
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Newmarket 5.15 Forgotten Hero will hopefully live up to his name and give the Fav something to think about. Has often pulled too hard in his races and was fitted with a hood for the first time this season, that didn't work too well as he was still very keen, with that run under his belt and enough runners today for the jockey to get some cover, I'm hoping the hood works the oracle today and he settles much better. Overall level of previous form, is plenty good enough to see him go close if he does settle today. 0.5 pt Each Way at 12-1 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. The racing at York today looks tougher, as the quality isn't up to the first two days and there could be some shocks on the card. In the York 4.25 I'm taking a punt with one of the Mick Easterby trained runner's Unex Michelangelo, previously with John Gosden and at one time was thought highly enough of, to have a crack at a Derby Trial. Not up to that level but ended his career with Gosden with a creditable 3rd, over this trip at Newmarket on soft ground. Easterby paid £35,000 guineas for this one at the sales and although yet to beat a rival in two runs for his current trainer, a reproduction of his Newmarket run from last year would give him a chance. 0.5pt Each Way at 40-1 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Newbury 4.50 Richard Hughes doesn't ride that often for Luca Cumani, 3 wins from 10 rides over the past 5 seasons. He rides Semeen for the yard today and should have a good chance of recording another victory. Having its first run of the year today but Cumani's biggest percentage of winners, comes from his runners returning after a layoff. 1pt Win at 3-1 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Cheers Cowan :)
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Two outsiders for Thursday, the first at York 1.45 Ancient Cross, winner of this race two years ago and finished 10th last year after getting a bump at the start, down 7lbs for this years renewal and should be race fit now after a couple of runs this season. High drawn runners seemed to have an edge yesterday but the low drawn runners weren't too disadvantaged and last years winner came from stall 5, occupied by Ancient Cross today. 0.5pt Each Way at 14-1 bog. The 2nd one for me is Offbeat Safaris in 4.50 Salisbury, his form might not look up to much, mainly contesting claimers last year and only win came in a seller but he was badly handicapped after running well in a claimer against a couple of highly rated runners. Ron Harris claimed him out of that Epsom claimer and looked to have campaigned him, to get his handicap mark down to a winning one for handicaps. The quicker ground would have been against him for his seasonal opener but that race should have him spot on for today. 0.5 pt each Way at 20-1 bog.
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. With the going an uncertainty today, will stick with the first couple of handicaps at York for starters. In the first race, I think it could be between Clayton and Ruscello to fight out the finish. I prefer the latter with William Buick back in the saddle, much improved last year and although at the top of his handicap mark, could have further improvement to come, following his recent run on the AW. The second race is a tough looking sprint in which Singeur could finally land a big payday, he's generally thereabouts in this type of race, has decent course form over the years and low enough in the weights now to see him get that bit closer. 0.5pt Each Way on both at 9-1 and 12-1 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Thought I'd post the updated figures before we start pumping out the winners ;)
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Beverley 5.40 Red Roar from the in form Alan Berry yard should at least make the frame in the final race of the day. This mare's track form to date reads 013121. Having her first run of the year but in the last two years has run well on her seasonal bow, finishing close 3rd each time. 0.5pt Each Way at 11-1 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Windsor 7.50 Beautiful Story from the Mick Channon yard, showed promise on debut as a 2yo, finishing 3rd in a maiden at Goodwood. Two runs this year have been on the AW, dropped in from a wide draw on her first start and always out the back, showed improvement on her first handicap start over 7f. Back up in trip, which should suit and also having her first run on turf this season. 0.5pt Each Way at 18-1 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Leopardstown 4.25 Waydownsouth looks interesting with Dermot Welds stable jockey taking the ride, even though his guvnor has a fancied runner with Troon, ridden by 3lb claimer. Maybe Smullen fancies the chances of this one a little bit more. This one is well handicapped on its old form and Smullen's ridden it a couple of times in its recent runs, so might be expecting another good run today. 1pt Win at 9-1 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Latest update on the results so far 11 in the frame compared to 15 unplaced for this month Just need a bit of luck for the rest of this month :D
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Thirsk 6.15 Spykes Bay is fitted with the blinkers for the first time tonight and a big run could be on the cards if the blinkers do the trick. Won his only start as a 2yo over 6f, then upped in trip and at a decent level on his first couple of runs as a 3yo. Dropped back to 6f in a competitive classified race and wasn't disgraced running 4th, since then has been running over 7f, looking like a return to 6f would suit. Now 9lb lower since his last run over this trip and with the blinkers on to sharpen him up, could go close. 0.5pt Each Way at 12-1 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Nottingham 7.25 Vastly makes his handicap debut tonight and based on his 3 runs in maidens, could be well handicapped from a mark of 70. All 3 runs in maidens he was trying to give plenty of weight to younger rivals. His 2nd place finish on the AW at Kempton, reads very well, with that winner, Spillway, going on to land a hatrick of wins and rounding off those 3 wins, winning a class 3 handicap at Sandown from a mark of 82. When Vastly ran 2nd to that winner Spillway, he was giving the winner 20lbs, due to the weight for age scale. 1pt Win at 10-1 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Chester 5.00 A good run from Area Fifty One will be a good pointer to the chance of John Biscuit. The Balding runner finished a close 7th in the City and Suburban handicap at Epsom, won by Area Fitfty One. John Biscuit took the biscuit when refusing to start, on his previous run on the AW and clearly has some issue's but on his day he looks capable of running a big race, has shown plenty of good form at Epsom, so another tricky track like Chester might also suit. 0.5 pt Each Way at 14-1 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Newcastle 8.30 Ersaal from the Roger Varian yard makes the long journey north, trainer a rare visitor here with just 5 runners, two wins and a 2nd being the result. This showed plenty of promise in some decent looking maidens last year. Well bred colt who has his first start in a handicap from a reasonable looking mark. 1pt Win at 7-2 bog
Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog.
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