jolly red
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Posts posted by jolly red
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. [TABLE=width: 416]
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 7.30 Kempton Wilfred Pickles showed like he was returning to form last time out. Last year he didn't look the same horse, which had run so well the previous season. Down to a decent mark and dropped in grade, if coming on for his most recent run, he shouldn't be far away in this company. 0.5 pt Each Way at 10-1 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 6.30 Kempton Ethel looks good each way value, with the Fav short odds. This filly be Exceed and Excel makes her debut tonight but should know enough about the job and might even upset the Fav. Her half sister was runner up in a Newmarket maiden as a 2yo and went on run a close 4th in the 1,000 Guineas on her first run as a 3yo. 0.5 pt Each Way at 11-1 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 8.30 Kempton Millys Gift only beat one home last time out when running on turf, she had previously won her maiden over tonight's C/D. If she runs to that level on her return to Kempton, she could go close. In her maiden win, the front two were well clear of the 3rd and the runner up has won twice since, including a decent Goodwood handicap, also placed at Chester and Epsom in a couple of good handicaps. 0.5pt Each Way at 10-1 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 8.45 Carlisle Red Paladin has a good chance of getting back into the winners enclosure. Having broken his maiden tag at the 4th attempt, he ran a good 3rd on handicap debut. Looks well drawn tonight and shouldn't be far away, even off top weight. 1 pt Win at 11-2 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 5.45 Leicester Bajan Story won't be on many people's shortlist for today, still an 11 race maiden and only finished 7th of 10 last time out. On the overall balance of his form, he looks worthy of a little each way. Dropping back to 7f on his return to turf, which looks a good move judged on his runs over a mile on the AW this year. His 5 runs on the AW this year, twice finished runner up, twice had no luck in running and his latest run when only 7th, was much tougher than todays contest. 0.5 pt Each Way at 20-1 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. [TABLE=width: 416]
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 2.45 Southwell Sycho Fred is one of the oldest runners in this handicap chase but is still capable on his day, as he showed when winning last season, from almost a stone higher handicap mark. The handicapper wasn't very kind to this old boy last year, keeping him around the same mark, despite some modest runs. Finished last of 8 on his seasonal debut but I take the view that he probably need that run and the handicapper has finally given him a chance to get competitive again off his current mark. 0.5 pt Each Way at 25-1 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Epsom 3.15 probably the toughest handicap of the day and one in which you need plenty of luck in running, one who deserves a change of luck is Confessional. He has gone close in the last two running's of the Epsom Dash, 2nd in 2011 and 5th last year, on both occasions was hampered at a vital stage. With the Easterby yard hitting a bit of form and De Sousa booked for the ride today, only needs his fair share of luck to make it 3rd time lucky. 0.5 pt Each Way at 18-1 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Nice winner on the final day of the month, boosts the figures to a respectable level.[TABLE=width: 416]
[TR] [TD=class: xl26, width: 139, bgcolor: #FFFF99] P & L Account [/TD] [TD=class: xl26, width: 77, bgcolor: #FFFF99] Outlay [/TD] [TD=class: xl26, width: 79, bgcolor: #FFFF99] Return [/TD] [TD=class: xl26, width: 80, bgcolor: #FFFF99] Profit [/TD] [TD=class: xl26, width: 89, bgcolor: #FFFF99] R.O.I. [/TD] [TD=class: xl24, width: 91, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl27, bgcolor: #CCFFCC] April [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] £8.00 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] £2.75 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] -£5.25 [/TD] [TD=class: xl36, bgcolor: transparent] -66% [/TD] [TD=class: xl24, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl27, bgcolor: #CCFFCC] May [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] £56.50 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] £75.46 [/TD] [TD=class: xl25, bgcolor: transparent] £18.96 [/TD] [TD=class: xl28, bgcolor: transparent] 34% [/TD] [TD=class: xl24, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl32, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] Sub Total [/TD] [TD=class: xl33, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] £64.50 [/TD] [TD=class: xl33, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] £78.21 [/TD] [TD=class: xl33, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] £13.71 [/TD] [TD=class: xl34, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] 21% [/TD] [TD=class: xl24, bgcolor: transparent][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl31, bgcolor: black][/TD] [TD=class: xl31, bgcolor: black][/TD] [TD=class: xl31, bgcolor: black][/TD] [TD=class: xl31, bgcolor: black][/TD] [TD=class: xl31, bgcolor: black][/TD] [TD=class: xl31, bgcolor: black][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl29, bgcolor: #FFFF99] Results [/TD] [TD=class: xl26, bgcolor: #FFFF99] 1st [/TD] [TD=class: xl26, bgcolor: #FFFF99] 2nd [/TD] [TD=class: xl26, bgcolor: #FFFF99] 3rd [/TD] [TD=class: xl26, bgcolor: #FFFF99] Unplaced [/TD] [TD=class: xl26, bgcolor: #FFFF99] Strike Rate [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl27, bgcolor: #CCFFCC] April [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 1 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 2 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 0 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 4 [/TD] [TD=class: xl28, bgcolor: transparent] 14% [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl27, bgcolor: #CCFFCC] May [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 12 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 6 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 8 [/TD] [TD=class: xl30, bgcolor: transparent] 42 [/TD] [TD=class: xl28, bgcolor: transparent] 18% [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl32, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] Sub Total [/TD] [TD=class: xl35, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] 13 [/TD] [TD=class: xl35, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] 8 [/TD] [TD=class: xl35, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] 8 [/TD] [TD=class: xl35, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] 46 [/TD] [TD=class: xl34, bgcolor: #CCFFFF] 17% [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] -
Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. In for a penny in for a pound as they say, lets try and finish off the month with a big priced double :). In the last race at Bath, most will be siding with the fillies in form at short odds. At the bottom of the handicap the filly Koharu won't be on most people's radar given her form as a 2yo but her sire's progeny do make good progress from 2yo's to 3yos' especially his fillies and this stiff 5f trip looks ideal. Trainer's got off to a good start with a winner from 5 runners, also had a 2nd and 3rd, so if this filly is fit to go on debut, she could surprise a few. 0.5 pt Each Way at 25-1 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Lets see if we can finish the month off with a decent priced winner, 6.50 Bath Bilash is looking to give Andrew Hollinshead his first winner as a trainer, having his first run of the year, so will be passed over by many, however this 6yo has won first time out in each of the past two seasons, got the plum draw in stall 1 and doesn't look handicapped out of it, from a similar mark he has won from. 0.5pt Each Way at 14-1 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. The soft ground is causing plenty of NRs today but in the 3.50 Lingfield it could aid the chances of Youmaysee, hopefully no more will come out of this race and 3 places up for grabs. This filly is trained by Mick Channon, not normally associated with debutant winners but this Motivator filly is bred to appreciate this trip and will also love these testing conditions, judged on her pedigree. A couple of these have solid form and the Stoute filly should also go close but the soft ground might just find a few of these out, so will take a chance that this filly is fit enough for her debut run. 0.5pt Each Way at 66-1 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. [TABLE=width: 416]
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 3.00 Nottingham Kings N Dreams is so well handicapped after a fruitless season last year, he's actually 6lb out of the handicap. Ran much better on his return to turf this season, ignore his last run in a claimer, had no chance at the weights, the front two were rated around 30lb superior. Worth taking an EW punt at the price, that he can build on his previous run, is a C/D winner and Good or G/S ground is his ideal. 0.5pt Each Way at 25-1 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 8.40 Yarmouth Capriska from the shrewd Willie Musson yard, this filly is making her return to turf tonight. She hasn't shown anything worthwhile on the AW but her two runs on turf last summer, were very promising, finished 3rd and 5th and that form is more than capable of taking a hand in this. 0.5 pt Each Way at 14-1 William Hill
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 5.25 Carlisle SmallJohn ran well on his comeback run following a 3 month layoff and if he can build on that, he could easily make all the running today from favourable looking low draw. Not won on turf for some time but was in good form on the AW, around this time last year. Won twice over 7f, in May and June last year, which saw his handicap mark rise to 77. His form went off the boil following those two wins and his handicap mark is now down to 67, which gives him a good chance at the weights. 1pt Win at 7-1 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Betting suggests the 4.40 Leicester is an open looking 2yo maiden, those with experience don't look anything out of the ordinary, so this could easily go to one of the newcomers. Kaab looks the most interesting to me, speedily bred colt, dam was a winner in Ireland over 5f and 6f, of the newcomers this colt looks the most speedily bred. Has some entries in the big sales races later in the year and could be well thought of. Not ideally drawn in stall one but if tuned up for debut, could easily overcome that. 1pt win at 9-2 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. [TABLE=width: 416]
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. York 2.55 Toughest race of the day to work out, with any number in with a fighting chance. Noble Storm has a chance to get back into the winners enclosure after a 2 year absence. His record in 5f handicaps is 3 wins from 10 runs, only been out of the frame twice. From a high handicap mark of 110, now down to a mark of 96, which is 2lb lower than when he ran 2nd to Hoof It, in a similar handicap at Doncaster back in 2010, from which he followed up with his purple patch of 3 wins from 4 starts, which saw his rating up to that 110 mark. 0.5pt Each Way at 25-1 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 3.10 Goodwood A couple of 3yo's taking on the older runners in this 12f handicap, Centred from the Sir Michael Stoute yard comes up on one of my alerts for following 3yo's in these long distance handicaps. At this time of year the 3yo's get a very healthy 17lb weight for age allowance from the 4yo's and older, an improving 3yo can end up very well handicapped in receipt of this allowance and the Stoute runners seems to fit that bill very nicely. 1 pt Win at 2-1 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 6.40 Salisbury My Own Way Home won this race last year, from a 5lb higher mark. She has been running fairly well on the AW lately, without getting overly competitive. Had a recent run back on the turf and didn't run that badly when 4th at Doncaster. She is now fitted with a visor for the first time in a bid to repeat last years victory. From a career low mark she must have a very good chance. 1 pt Win at 6-1 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 2.20 Southwell Midaz by Zamindar out of a mare by Pulpit, who was top class 3yo on dirt, winning Grade 2 race, runner up in Florida Derby and 4th in the Kentucky Derby. Southwell's fibresand looks likely to suit. Trainer Hughie Morrison does very well with his runners at Southwell and his 3yo sprinters have a 33% strike rate, recording 12 wins from 36 runs. Midaz made a pleasing debut on polytrack last month, the form of the race has been a bit hit and miss but 2 of the 5 that were behind him that day have since gone on to win with another finishing 2nd at 66-1. 1 pt Win at 9-2 bog
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Lingfield opens on turf today, running a mixed card and in the opener, 2.00 Lingfield Minority Interest could be of major interest having first run on turf since debuting for Sir Michael Stoute as a 3yo, in what looked a fairly decent maiden at Sandown. Sold after getting beat on the AW when short priced Fav next time out. Up until most recent run in the first time visor, had shown very little in all his runs on the AW for current trainer. Back on turf could be the key to further improvement for this gelding by Galileo, the sires record in these low grade handicaps at the track reads, 1100212. 1pt Win at 6-1 bog
Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog.
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Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 6.50 Sandown Best be Careful runs here off bottom weight, with an additional 5lbs taken off with the riders claim. Looks well drawn in stall 3, will appreciate all this sunshine, as this mare likes the ground on the faster side. Should be ready after her seasonal debut run, only beat one rival that day but was hampered early on during that race. 0.5 pt Each Way at 16-1 bog