jolly red
-
Posts
147 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by jolly red
-
-
Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 6.50 Ripon Little Eli's maiden win was a step in the right direction, following his 3rd place finish on his previous outing. The fact that he beat a 105 rated, long odds on Fav in that maiden win, was a bit of a shock and with the Fav being quirky to say the least, I wouldn't take that form too literally, although it was still a good effort. Since been well beaten at Hamilton, a track which may not have suited this keen going type. Back on this flatter and easier track, he might be worth another chance to show, his maiden win was no fluke. 0.5 pt Each Way at 12-1 bog
-
Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 4.0 Ayr Mark Johnston runs two here, both with a decent chance but I prefer the 3yo, even though Joe Fanning opts for the older runner. Wellingrove has been in fairly good form this season, still a maiden after 12 runs but should have a good chance to lose the maiden tag today. Last two runs, finished 3rd, previously had one of todays rivals, Joshua the First just behind in 4th place, with Wellingrove 4lb better off at the weights today. Latest run, 3rd to Woody Bay, who himself, finished 3rd last night and confirmed previous form with the winner at revised weights. 1 pt win at 7-2 bog
-
Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Today I've gone for two fillies by Singspiel, who should both be suited to the trip and going. The first is Ningara 5.00 Sandown, who showed vast improvement on her first run on turf and off bottom weight today, in what looks a competitive little handicap, will go close again if repeating that effort. The 2nd one is Chocolate Block 4.50 Beverley, this filly had 3 runs on turf in unsuitable conditions, had two AW runs as a 3yo, winning first time over 10f, she now has her first run back on turf, with ideal conditions in her favour and should be able to put that previous poor AW run behind her. 1 pt win on each at 9-2 and 5-2 bog
-
Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 8.30 Beverley, the Fav will be most people choice for this tough looking sprint but I like the look of Arch Walker. Last season he took a few runs to hit top form, then finished runner up in 3 out of 4 runs during the summer. Last time out he was 4.5 lengths behind the Fav and has a 9lb turnaround in the weights, so if both run to that form, there should be little between them tonight. Down to his lowest ever handicap mark of 55, both his wins have come off a 60 rating and both been on fast ground. 0.5 pt Each Way at 20-1 bog
-
Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. [TABLE=width: 416]
-
Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 8.20 Epsom Shalwa can get off the mark at the 3rd time of asking in this fillies maiden. Open looking race with some nicely bred fillies taking part. Marco Botti's filly got a little stirred up on her debut, finishing 3rd in AW maiden, last time out the winner was given a soft lead but she stayed on well to get 2nd ahead of her stable mate. She's been given a couple of months break after those two runs in the spring, likely type to improve again during the summer. 1 pt Win at 5-1 bog
-
Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 4.50 Haydock Great Hall has been given a rating of 88 following his Newmarket maiden win last time out, looks a bit harsh on the face of it but this colt was a gutsy winner, despite still looking a bit green. Should improve again for that run and could be up to carrying top weight in what looks a tight handicap. 1 pt Win at 9-2 bog
-
Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Brighton 2.45 Surrey Dream is a modest looking maiden, still seeking its first win after 19 runs so far. Doesn't seem to stay a mile and lacks early pace for 6f but does stay on at the finish. Back at 6f today but it all depends on getting a good break and keeping in touch with the leaders on the downhill stretch, once they reach the climb at Brighton, this should be staying on. Last couple of runs over this trip look modest, well beaten in a C/D maiden, then a couple of days later, 6th of 9 at Goodwood. To be fair had little to no chance in those two runs, in the maiden he was trying to give weight to the front two, both of which have won since and are rated 79 and 80, at Goodwood he was racing 11lb out of the handicap. Has no excuses today, its all down to the first couple of furlongs and how much ground is lost, if able to keep up with the early pace, has his best chance of finally breaking the maiden tag. 0.5 pt Each Way at 12-1 bog
-
Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Brighton 3.15 only 5 runners for this maiden but some very nice looking types on breeding and none more so than one of the Godolphin two runners Apparently. This one has a talent laden pedigree on both sides of the bloodline. Mikael Barzalona's choice of the two Godolphin runners, even though the less experienced. Suroor is not afraid to send his maidens to Brighton, although the track is a tricky one, the opposition is usually lesser. 1 pt win at 11-4 bog
-
Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. The last two races on Wolves card today are two divisions of a class 6 extended mile handicap, each division see's a runner by the sire Choisir, who does well with his progeny under today's conditions. In the 5.15 Katmai River runs in division one and is one of the rags at 25-1, this 6yo gelding normally races over 7f, although back in 2010 had three runs over C/D and ran well twice, finishing 3rd and 4th. Very inconsistent but is now racing off his lowest ever mark of 47, plus an additional 5lb allowance from his rider, who's ridden him in the past. At the price is worth a little punt, given the Sires record and current handicap mark. Division two has Adorable Choice, a 5yo mare who is also racing off her lowest ever mark. Recent AW form has been over longer trips and fairly modest but a couple of recent turf runs over this trip have been more promising. She won her maiden on the AW at Lingfield over 7f, she also won twice on the turf over a mile as a 3yo. Had a couple of runs over C/D back in 2012, didn't fare too badly finishing 4th and 6th, with both those runs, from almost a stone higher handicap mark. Off her current rating she shouldn't be far away today, over what looks a more suitable trip. 0.5 pt Each Way on both at 25-1 and 9-1 bog
-
Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. [TABLE=width: 416]
-
Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 3.30 Salisbury JB already has two in this race and both of which I looked at myself, this race confined to 6yo and upward sprinters is so open, anyone could win if things go their way. I kept coming back to Six Wives for this race, Scott Dixon doesn't have many runners here and I was thinking about a little each way on his runner in the last race, Lucky Mountain, but its an apprentice race, with a jockey having just her 2nd ride in public, so swerved that one. Dixon has booked Hanagan for the ride on this mare, which is a positive sign. She had been a bit under par, so was given a little break and returned just 4 days ago, with a good 4th at Carlisle, the 3rd horse won at Chester yesterday. As a result of some of her below par efforts, she does look well handicapped on some of her best previous efforts. 0.5 pts Each Way at 8-1 bog
-
Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 2.45 Chester Doctor Parkes was bought by Stuart Williams at the sales, following his win on the AW for previous trainer. Been running well for current trainer in better grade sprints. Previous C/D winner and the drop in class could be the key today. Drawn out wide in stall 8, which over 5f isn't the best position to be in but his running style, is to race off the pace, so a low draw would probably be more of a negative. There's doesn't look to be any more rain forecast for Chester, so hopefully the ground should dry up a little, as he seems best on good ground. 1 pt win at 13-2 bog
-
Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 3.15 Newcastle will be a tough slog, especially if there is any more rain. It might well pay to be at the front of the pack, rather than chasing the pace, which will no doubt where we will see Oriental Fox running from, especially given his decent looking draw. Only joined Johnston this year, after racing on the continent. Ran well on first 3 outings but put in a modest effort last time out over this trip, that came on fast ground, which might have been the main issue, as he has one of the stoutest pedigree's in this field. 0.5 pt each Way at 20-1 bog
-
Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. [TABLE=width: 416]
-
Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Musselburgh 5.30 Royal Caper's form this season looks pretty modest, 2nd last, last, then 7th of 14 beaten a fair way. I don't think his form is as bad as it looks on paper, he wasn't beaten far on first run of the year, despite only beating one rival. Then his last two runs, he's had a troubled passage in both runs, so its easy to give him the benefit of the doubt. Trainer sends him on the long journey north, which I doubt he would make this trip, without thinking he had a fair chance. Might also get a clearer run, back on turf. As a juvenile he ran a very good 5th in a Newmarket maiden, his other turf runs were pretty poor but at least he did show some potential. 0.5 pt Each Way at 10-1 bog
-
Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Newcastle 8.15 Elnadwa is a very well bred filly from the Godolphin operation, both her Sire and Dam are Grade 1 winners in the States. This 3yo filly takes on the older horses for the first time but is in receipt of 10lb WFA allowance. Still very much unexposed, having had just two runs as a juvenile, winning her maiden on the AW on her 2nd outing. Ran well behind her more fancied stable mate when finishing 2nd on 3yo seasonal debut. She should improve with that run under her belt and she has the potential to be quite a decent filly. 1 pt Win at 4-1 bog
-
Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Salisbury 3.50 Best race of the day, a tough looking class 2 handicap, in which you could make a case for any of these winning, on their best form. I'm taking a chance with Asatir, who has been fairly disappointing lately. Won both his runs as a juvenile and also first start as a 3yo in handicap company, after which he was sent off Fav for one of the big handicaps at the Goodwood Festival over 10f, in which he finished well down the field. Showed better form back at a mile on subsequent run, finished 3rd to the much improved filly Sweetnessandlight, trying to give her almost a stone and a half, she followed up that win, running a close 4th in a Group 3. On his breed profile Asatir has plenty of pace, so much so, that 7f might even be his best trip and for me a mile would be his maximum. From his 8 runs so far, I'd be happy to write off four of them due to either Trip or Ground being a negative, all other 4 runs with the right conditions have been plenty good enough. Also fitted with a visor for the 1st time today and with conditions looking to suit, I think he is worth a punt at the price. It might turn out that he just isn't in love with the game anymore but if he does run well today, next time the price will be far shorter. 0.5 pt each Way at 14-1 bog
-
Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. [TABLE=width: 416]
-
Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 4.15 Brighton Sakhee'sSquirrel is having her 3rd run today, shown some promise in two maiden runs so far at Windsor and Newbury. She is now in a maiden auction where weight allowances are given depending on prices fetched at auction. Dave Evans filly get her sex allowance plus another 5lb allowance on her sales price. She improved from her first run and if she shows further improvement for her 2nd outing, she shouldn't be far away. 0.5 pt Each Way at 12-1 bog
-
Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 6.50 Thirsk Slide Show is having her 2nd run for Dandy Nicholls tonight, this mare is making a quick return to the track, having run 5 days ago in an apprentice race, where she pulled too hard early in the race and had nothing left at the finish. Very well bred mare, who had 3 runs in Ireland as a 3yo, finishing 3rd on her final start. Didn't show a great deal for previous trainer Colin Teague, since coming over from Ireland. Sprint King Dandy Nicholls rarely gets winners over these trips, in the past 5 years just 3 wins from 49 runs. Not a great record but when you compare his long distance runners returning from a layoff, he's 0 from 8. Those making a quick return to the track, he's 2 from 8. If this mare retains any ability, she looks worth an each way punt at the price. 0.5 pt Each Way at 22-1 bog
-
Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 5.45 Wolverhampton Give us a Belle is pretty moderate but this race won't take much winning. Still a maiden after 14 races but at the end of last year, he started to show some bits of form. First run back following a 4 month layoff, ran well when 3rd over this trip on turf. Latest run was a well beaten last of 5 in a Brighton maiden but you can ignore that run, at the weights he would have needed to run to around a mark of 80 to have won that maiden. Tried in first time blinkers today, back in handicap company with a decent 3lb claimer on board, over what looks his ideal trip. 0.5 pt Each Way at 22-1 bog
-
Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Pontefract 5.10 Deepest Blue has shown his best form at 6f and this track's stiff finish might also help him lose his maiden tag today at the 13th attempt. Ridden by an inexperienced claimer, who has ridden him last 3 times, so at least should have a feel for this 3yo and his 7lb claim might mean the difference at the finish. 1 pt Win at 11-2 bog
-
Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. [TABLE=width: 416]
Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog.
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. 7.30 Southwell. This is Southwell's only meeting of the month and the maiden handicap looks a tricky race. There are a few in here with US dirt bred pedigree's, one of which is already posted up by Hugh Taylor and the price of that one has now reduced any value. One that could be under the radar is Noel Quinlan's filly Exclusion, she showed some promise last year as a juvenile and ran well on her first start this season, in the first time blinkers. Having her first run on the fibresand, has raced on the polytrack but the switch to this surface could suit her better. She is related to a number of Stakes winner in the States and her sire, Include, was a multiple Graded winner in the States. Won 10 of his 20 races, also very highly rated on the Beyer Speed ratings, earning 13 triple digit Beyers in his last 15 races. If this filly takes to the surface, she could easily show plenty of improvement on what she has shown so far. 0.5 pt Each way at 20-1 bog