plloyd88

Not sure if this is of any use to anyone, being a spread bet, but I think the following is a very good bet.
Chiefs v Force: Buy Chiefs hotshots at 37* with Spreadex (25 points per McKenzie, Tamanivalu, Ngatai or Lowe try)
Reasons for liking it are
Taking an approach of valuing the hotshots on the basis of the player try minutes quotes, I make that quartet worth just short of 42 points That's an edge of just over 13% and it's very rare to get a perceived edge in double figures in this market All of the players have reasonably encouraging stats, again it's rare for there not to be at least one "makeweight" in among the hotshots SPIN quote 43-47 with McNicol instead of Ngatai. I'd definitely rather have the latter on my side and there's no way you'd expect such a big difference in the prices Be prepared to possibly lose 37 times your stake, but I'm confident this is a value buy at the price.
* Gone up to 38 while I type but I'd still be prepared to get involved at that price.

Scotland v France: Power shift in Murrayfield
https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/rugby-union/six-nations/scotland-v-france-tips-power-shift-in-murrayfield-2016031011

Good luck with your bets, I've sided more with the visitors but hopefully we can both turn a profit. I've bought their hotshots at 24 with Spreadex (25 points per Folau, Carraro, Horne or Guildford try). I just can't see how it's less than 25 rather than a few points higher. Of the 4, Guildford looks over priced with Skybet at 10/3 anytime and 25/1 for 2 or more and I've topped up with small bets at those prices.
 

Brumbies v Waratahs: Who will be Australia's alpha team?
https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/rugby-union/super-18/brumbies-v-waratahs-tips-who-will-be-australia-s-alpha-team--2016022902

Looks like Fickou out of the next game

Great start on the French try scorer numbers! Pity Fickou didn't get on the scoreboard, he made plenty of opportunities for others though

I think France will win by Twenty points against Italy

I'm more inclined to the view that France will win with something to spare but the line has moved upwards slightly and it's enough to persuade me to swerve that bet.
I've backed Fickou to be top French tryscorer at 10/1 with VC, a standout price that may not last. He's having a good season domestically and I've seen a couple of "industry insiders" but that up as their best bet of the tournament.
I've bought French tryscorer shirt numbers at 106 which is now up around the 120 mark. I'd seen a decent shout for a buy of their total points but the shirts buy seemed to offer a better edge at the price. Around 50% of that total is expected to be achieved tomorrow against Italy.
Finally, I've backed Fickou and Vakatawa to score a try at 9/4 with Betfair Sportsbook and 6/4 with Lads, the latter being an enhanced price. Both bigger than my assessment of the true odds. Double odds offer applies to the Fickou bet if he scores more than once.

The wait is nearly over! France and Italy get the ball rolling on Saturday afternoon. Expect a combination of new combinations, opening night jitters and poor weather to keep this one tighter than it should be 
 
https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/rugby-union/six-nations/france-v-italy-2016020206

Northampton will still be licking their wounds from the heavy defeat inflicted by a Dan Carter inspired Racing 92 at the weekend. Value for Racing who have never lost to the Premiership side.
 
https://www.punterslounge.com/rugby-union-betting-european-champions-cup-preview-northampton-saints-v-racing-92-2015121604
 
 

Have had a look at the Wasps v Toulon game, particularly the players quoted in the "hotshots" markets. I think both quartets look a little cheap with Spreadex (26 for Piutau, Wade, Halai and Hughes and 29 for Tuisova, Habana and both Armitages).
If you don't fancy investing in 4 or 8 players, my single pick would be Wade at 9/4 anytime with Hills with a small bet on him to score 2 or more at 16/1 with Lads.
As usual, all bets based on comparison of spreads, fixed odds prices and player stats (and largely unencumbered by any actual knowledge of the game)!
I've had something on all of the stated bets.

The first of the weekend is up. The odds are yet to be posted by the bookies at the time of writing but I think that Ulster will be slim favourites. I can see a form Saracens side doing just about enough to muscle their way over the line backed by a manic defence,
 
https://www.punterslounge.com/rugby-union-betting-european-champions-cup-preview-ulster-v-saracens

Just edit the first post and the thread title becomes editable then.  

Are you sure Munster were ever 6/4 to win the game? Big market move if so as they're now favourites with Edinburgh available at that price. Munster, as favourites, are listed first on Oddschecker in the win market, despite being the away team. It's also Edinburgh receiving the start at 10/11. Not disputing it if you confirm, just wondered if the way the odds were shown had misled you.

Well done to everyone on your winning bets There have been some great tipping on this thread See you at the next World Cup

Have had a look at the respective spread and fixed odds prices, and the players' stats, and gone for these 3 tryscorer bets.
Steyn to score a try at 13/2 and buy his try minutes at 6, both with Spreadex
Nacewa to score a try at 5/2 with PP (12/5 Lads acceptable)
Murphy to score a try at 7/2 with PP
Murphy the stronger selection for me, Nacewa just backable at the price. Steyn a bit of an unknown quantity so putting my trust in his impressive figures at Super 10 level. Can't split the prices in terms of value; hence the split stakes approach.

Really like the squad that Leinster have sent to Italy to take on basement dwellers Treviso. The Italians are a strong outfit at home but I don't think this will stop Leinster blowing them away
 
https://www.punterslounge.com/rugby-union-betting-guinness-pro12-preview-treviso-v-leinster

Have wasted little time in previewing the biggest rugby match of the year. Very difficult to call but have to give the All Blacks the nod.
 
https://www.punterslounge.com/rugby-union-betting-world-cup-final-preview-australia-v-new-zealand

Final preview of the world cup looks at Friday nights 3rd place play between Argentina and South Africa. The weather is predicted to be wet and Argentina has lost three key players so although it goes against Los Pumas sensational form I'm tipping South Africa.
 
https://www.punterslounge.com/rugby-union-betting-world-cup-runners-up-preview-argentina-v-south-africa

To paraphrase the Monks (and show my age in the process) nice game, shame about the bets! 
Great to watch and enough near misses to convince me the bets were reasonably sound. Argentina knocked on the door late on but couldn't get through the Aussie defence. Any try would have landed the 20+ bet and would have ensured a profit if it had been scored by one of the 4 "hotshots". I was willing Mitchell to cap that brilliant late run with a try but, alas, he offloaded to Ashley-Cooper who completed his hat trick. Unfortunately, he was one of the few players I'd backed who I didn't benefit from him scoring more than 1 try.
Well done to anyone who did turn a profit, not least the full house in the preview selections!

I've bought Saracens hotshots at 31 with Spreadex (25 points per Goode, Ashton, Streather or Ellery try). 35 to buy elsewhere, I think a buy at 31 offers an acceptable balance of downside and upside. Whilst obviously possible, it would be disappointing for that quartet to fail to muster a single try. A 6 point loss for just 1 try isn't too bad and the prospect of 2 or more strikes me a pretty decent.
In particular, the prices for Ellery are quite tempting. You can buy his try minutes at 16 with the same firm when they're 4 points higher elsewhere or back him anytime at 9/4 with Hills.

Still looking at the first game, I've bought Davies' try minutes at 8 with SPIN
A bit better than the 4/1 anytime and has averaged 53 in his 4 games so far. Whilst I'm by no means suggesting that would be anywhere near the true price, he's the only Welsh player to have scored in more than one of their games and averages 1 every other start in Pro 12 games for the Scarlets.
I've also bought the South Africa front 5 try minutes at 9 with SPIN
A bet that's served me well at low prices so far, usually for tier 2 nations. Looks a cheap enough buy here when the SA front 5 have contributed 3 tries for an average make up of around 30. (du Plessis and de Jager both scored in their opening game and the latter did so again in their last game.)

Skybet have 3 "Requestabet" specials up for the SA/Wales game and 2 of them represent abysmal value. Both teams to have a man in the the sin bin is evens, not great when you can get a much better price for 2 or more cards being shown. SA to score a penalty try, Wales to have a yellow card and total points over 30 doesn't make much appeal at 2/1 either. Instinctively, I'd have said 2/1 is too short for the penalty try aspect alone and roughly fair odds for a Wales yellow. 6/1 feels more like the sort of price you'd expect to see at a minimum.
That leaves 5/1 for either kicker to hit the post kicking a penalty/conversion/drop goal and I've had an interest on that. I can't say with any confidence what the true odds would be but, for something that appears very unlikely it seems to happen more than you would be inclined to expect, sometimes more than once in the same game. To modest stakes (the most you're likely to be allowed) it provides a bit of interest every time a kick is being lined up.

The final preview for this weekend's RWC is up. Predicting Australia not to have everything their own way against an emerging Scottish side
 
https://www.punterslounge.com/rugby-union-betting-world-cup-preview-australia-v-scotland

Never underestimate Frnac's ability to mix things up though!
I agree about NZ winning by more than 12 and have backed it at the 11/10 still on offer with Skybet in the winning margin market. Feels like a strong bet at odds against.
Taking into account results so far, performance against the ratings I've been using and results in knockout games over the last 3 World Cups, I'm inclined to back the favourites to win by 1-12 in each of other 3 games. The one where there's some consensus for a potential upset is Argentina to beat Ireland but I think the former's impressive form and the latter's woes are more than reflected in the prices and I still fancy Ireland to edge it.
I'm interested in your more informed view though!