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European Rugby 2015/2016


plloyd88
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Not sure if you'd prefer a separate thread for the Challenge Cup but I've had a quick look at tomorrow's game between Harlequins and Montpellier. I've backed Nagusa to score a try at 7/2 (Hills, Lads or 365) and to score 2 or more at 25/1 with Lads.

Better value than buying his try minutes at 13 and not bad on his recent stats. He's scored in 4 of his 7 starts this season (1 brace) and 26 in 66 if you go back 3 complete seasons (3 braces). Whilst Montpellier are away and the underdogs, they're still in for around 18 points on the spreads so I think he's worth an interest at the price.

The 5/1 that Skybet offer for Fall to score a try looks big compared to the spread prices but his stats are poor enough to dissuade me. He's only scored in 2 of his 22 starts for Montpellier and wasn't much more prolific at Racing 92.

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Id' be better off changing the title of the thread to European rugby but I don't think I can. 

Sounds like Nagusa has been in decent form this season much like his team. I'd be a little cautious backing a French team away in the second tier European competition as they have a history of self-destructing but given his form and odds it certainly worth a look at.

 

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Leicester v Stade Francais: Bought Betham's try minutes at 10 with Spreadex.

Something of an unknown quantity in terms of how he'll perform on the European club stage, I think that price underestimates the prospects of him scoring a try tonight. Better value, for me, than the best anytime price of 3/1, itself something of a standout.

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The first of the weekend is up. The odds are yet to be posted by the bookies at the time of writing but I think that Ulster will be slim favourites. I can see a form Saracens side doing just about enough to muscle their way over the line backed by a manic defence,

 

https://www.punterslounge.com/rugby-union-betting-european-champions-cup-preview-ulster-v-saracens

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On 11/17/2015, 10:20:34, plloyd88 said:

The first of the weekend is up. The odds are yet to be posted by the bookies at the time of writing but I think that Ulster will be slim favourites. I can see a form Saracens side doing just about enough to muscle their way over the line backed by a manic defence,

Good luck, seen them tipped elsewhere as well.

I've had a look at the tryscorer markets and bought Ulster hotshots at 17 (25 points per Trimble, Cave, Gilroy or Williams try)

My rough calculation makes them worth 18 at least and, given the extent to which they've featured in recent Ulster games, they look worth a buy at the price, although the game has a relatively low total points expectation around the 36 mark.

I've also bought Pienaar's try minutes at 4. I'd equate that to getting more like 10/1 about a player who's 15/2 best with the fixed odds firms and think he's worth a small bet at that price on his stats. Finally, I've had a buy of McCloskey's try minutes at 4 as well. 2 in 7 starts this season and a favourable mention in the preview, worth adding to the (admittedly Ulster-biased) portfolio.

Edited by harry_rag
Forgot to say; all bets with Spreadex!
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Have had a look at the Wasps v Toulon game, particularly the players quoted in the "hotshots" markets. I think both quartets look a little cheap with Spreadex (26 for Piutau, Wade, Halai and Hughes and 29 for Tuisova, Habana and both Armitages).

If you don't fancy investing in 4 or 8 players, my single pick would be Wade at 9/4 anytime with Hills with a small bet on him to score 2 or more at 16/1 with Lads.

As usual, all bets based on comparison of spreads, fixed odds prices and player stats (and largely unencumbered by any actual knowledge of the game)!

I've had something on all of the stated bets.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Northampton will still be licking their wounds from the heavy defeat inflicted by a Dan Carter inspired Racing 92 at the weekend. Value for Racing who have never lost to the Premiership side.

 

https://www.punterslounge.com/rugby-union-betting-european-champions-cup-preview-northampton-saints-v-racing-92-2015121604

 

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Bath have a tough ask this Sunday when they travel to France to face Toulon. the bookies have the French giants as 16 point favourites which I think is a shade generous. I'm expecting last year's Premiership finalists to give them a run for their money. 

 

https://www.punterslounge.com/rugby-union-betting-champions-cup-preview-toulon-v-bath-2016010706

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On 1/10/2016, 2:53:44, potus said:

What on earth are Oyonnax playing at throwing away a 23-0 half time lead? What an absolute joke.

That's French sides for you, Paddy jackson and Ruan Pienaar were excellent when they came on but still that type of lead should never be surrendered. 

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