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Posts posted by Stressy

  1. Re: CONCACAF Champions League 2012/2013 Wow 1.61 odds above on Santos Laguna would have been a steal. They are now only 1.36 with Bet 365 and rightfully so. Seattle will be without new designated player Obafemi Martins and their other top attacker, Eddie Johnson, is just coming back from a hamstring injury and is a game time decision. I imagine Seattle will stack their mid and try and soak up the pressure and would be happy with a tie at half and hope for a 2nd half counter attack or set piece goal. Unfortunately for them, Santos Laguna will gladly attack and try to end the contest early with a goal. I was hoping for better than 2.750 (bet365) for the half -1 AH especially because of what I mentioned above for Seattle's tactics so I'm going to shy away from this now. For me, I'm going to watch in play and try and find a good opportunity to pounce. If Seattle happens to score first, look for opportunities like Santos Laguna to win at HT (if Seattle scores before the 25th min) or Santos to win FT (or even win by a margin) if it's later than the 25th min. I have no doubt Santos Laguna will qualify here. If Santos Laguna score first, look for opportunities like Santos Laguna -1 AH HT (if they score before the 20/25th min.) or Santos Laguna -1 AH FT (or even -2) if it's later. If Seattle goes down, they have to put pressure on for 2 goals and this will open up the game and Santos will punish them. Last year, Santos Laguna crushed Seattle 6-1 at home in the Quarter finals and then crushed my poor TFC 6-2 at home in the semi finals. They show no mercy when it gets to this stage and I expect we will see another massacre tonight. Good luck if anyone is thinking of taking a punt.

  2. Re: USA > MLS - 2013 Okay just a quick write up before I head down to BMO field to watch TFC vs. LA Galaxy. Toronto vs. LA: TFC are very lucky to face LA right now. Robbie Keane is out injured and Landon Donovan has just joined the team this week so there's no way he starts (might be used as a late sub). These two represent a huge attacking threat. Without them, LA have to turn to their teenaged strikers Villareal and McBean. Last week they couldn't score against Colorado at home (won 1-0 on a penalty scored by Magee). They are now playing in cool 11 degrees celsius weather away from home and this might have a factor on the young Cali boys. In addition to the attacking issues, LA might rest their best defender Omar Gonzalez who played in both USA national games including this past Tuesday's game in Mexico. He just joined the team Thursday and since they have a huge Champions league game on Wednesday, they might give him a break here. TFC is coming off a bye week so they've had plenty of time to rest and get the team more organized. We were missing three players due to international duty - Morgan (Canada LB), Bekker (Canada CM), O'Dea (Ireland CB) however none of them played many minutes and only Morgan and O'Dea are starters for TFC. I expect we'll play with them on the bench to start as we have decent cover for LB and CB. Given all the above info, I find a ton of value in the odds on Toronto. 3.40 for TFC at home (bet365) looks good if you're feeling risky. I think the TFC +0.5 AH @ 1.650 or DNB @ 2.20 look to be safer options that still offer good returns. Also, with LA's younger attackers and TFC's often defensive approach U.25 goals @ 1.825 might be worth consideration. 2 of TFC's 3 games have gone over but the SKC game had a penalty and the Montreal game had two penalties. LA's last two games have come in under at 1-1 and 1-0. Colorado vs. Portland: I'm not an expert on these two teams but what I do know is that Colorado is without 7 starting players for this game due to injuries and suspensions. In particular, they are without their two first choice centre backs and goalie and since Portland is an attacking team this could spell trouble. Colorado lost last week (1-0) to a weakened LA (see above) and haven't won yet (2 losses and 1 tie). Portland have two ties against good teams (New York and Seattle) and one loss to league leading Montreal. Personally, I rate Portland much higher and I'm surprised they are the underdogs for the bookies. It might have to do with the playing conditions in Colorado (cold, elevation etc.) but I still think the value for Portland is good given the missing 7 starters. 3.80 (bet 365) for the away win looks enticing but once again a DNB @ 2.37 or +0.5 AH @ 1.65 are the safer options considering anything can happen in this league. Given the missing CB for Colorado I might even take a cheeky punt at -1 AH @ 6.40. Remember, anything can happen in this league so don't be the farm but these picks are my two cents for the week. Good luck and enjoy the games.

  3. Re: USA > MLS - 2013

    Dallas - RSL Real Salt Lake Suspended: None Doubtful: None Injured/Unavailable: Morales (knee), Borchers (quad), Wingert (knee), Saborio (Costa Rica national team), Mansally (Gambia national team), Rimando (United States national team), Beckerman (United States national team), Beltran (United States national team) Odds are good for HW ,what are your thoughts?
    sorry, just saw this now. Definitely a good shout so I hope you placed a wager.
  4. Re: USA > MLS - 2013 As a follow up to the post above, here's how the MLSsoccer.com editors picked each match this week: NY v DC - 5 picks for NY, 1 Pick for DC SKC v CHI - All 6 picks for SKC MTL v TOR - All 6 picks for MTL PHI v NE - 4 picks for PHI, 2 picks for NE CLB v SJ - 5 picks for CLB, 1 pick for a DRAW RSL v COL - All 6 picks for RSL SEA v POR - 5 picks for SEA, 1 pick for a DRAW DAL v HOU - 3 picks for DAL, 1 pick for HOU, 2 picks for DRAW LA v CHV - All 6 picks for LA

  5. Re: USA > MLS - 2013 This round of fixtures is being dubbed "Rivalry Week" because they have scheduled almost every game to be a "derby" of sorts. Although the history won't be very relevant for the players, the fans will be charged up. Montreal Impact v Toronto FC: TFC is expecting around 5,000 travelling fans for this game (although I suspect it'll be less) and it's Montreal's home opener so the atmosphere from the supporters should be uplifting. Montreal is coming back with 6 points from (arguably) the two hardest away stadiums. They've surprised a lot of people and many are rating them much higher as a result. TFC also pulled off a shock beating SKC 2-1 at home last Saturday. I was at the game and it wasn't a convincing win and they came off a bit lucky with their goals. Rightfully, Montreal are the favourites here. However, as we saw last week, anything can happen and I don't think the 1.61 (bet 365) for Montreal is anywhere near value. Therefore, it's a no bet for me. Other Games: Just to quickly give you my thoughts on the other games: - NY vs. DC - Another rivalry game and NY is going to be under a lot of pressure to win after a bad start. Another no bet for me. - SKC vs. Chi - I think SKC will be desperate to put the Toronto game behind them and will outclass Chicago who has started poorly so far. It's also their home opener and the crowd will provide good support. SKC at evens (bet365) looks okay to me. - Philly vs. NE - Another tough call. Could go either way so if I were to bet, I'd probably do NE in some sort of DNB or handicap. - Columbus vs. SJ - Although they lost to Vancouver, I thought Columbus showed some bright moments and Higuain is a very dangerous player. I was hoping the bookies would make this a split game or favour SJ so their would be better value on Columbus but that's not the case. SJ got pretty lucky with their win against NY last week and I'm not convinced they are as solid as they were last year. Still, 2.30 (bet 365) isn't bad for the home team and might be worth consideration. - RSL v. Colorado - Colorado has already lost to two pretty weak/mediocre teams and RSL should see points in this one. It's their home opener so the crowd should be fired up and since RSL has some fire power at their disposal, I think the -1 AH at 2.250 (bet 365) is worth a look. - Seattle v Portland - Along side Toronto/Montreal this will be another marquee "rival" game with a crazy atmosphere. I think Seattle are the favourites on paper but 1.53 is far too low especially considering they had a big mid week champions league game on Tuesday. I'd say no bet here but if you're thinking about it, I think the handicap or DNB on Portland offers the best value. - Dallas v Houston - Another rivalry game but I'm not sure how big it is. Dallas is crap but I guess they've been made favourites since Houston played (and lost 3-0) Wednesday night in Mexico as part of the champions league. However, they were rested last weekend so I think the effects won't be too bad and they are value at 3.25 (bet 365). DNB might be a safer option though. - LA vs. Chivas - Another rivalry game but I don't think Chivas even have that many fans. LA are rightfully the heavy favourites and even though they played a mid week champions league game (at home), I think they should win easily. I'd take LA -1 AH at 1.97 (bet 365). Good luck if you decide to play this weekend.

  6. Re: USA > MLS - 2013 Given the lack of activity so far, I'll try and provide some commentary throughout the season. Specifically, as a Toronto FC fan, this will be my area of focus. Everyone is picking Sporting Kansas City away to Toronto FC and for good reason. TFC has been a running joke almost since it's existence. This is year 7 and we are on our 8th coach I believe. We finally hired what many to believe a competent GM and he has brought in Ryan Nelson as head coach. Because he was still playing with QPR for a month or so, pre-season started a little late and TFC are way behind when it compared to other teams. TFC still has multiple trialists in camp and just yesterday signed John Bostock on loan from Tottenham. Last weekend before their first game away to Vancouver, they signed Hogan Ephraim (loan from QPR) and Robert Earnshaw (loan from Cardiff) right before the game. They are scrambling with these loans to get a team on the field. These are quality players compared to what TFC had going in to the season however, they are still getting match fit and used to the differences with the league (long flights, aggressive/physical play, artificial turf fields). TFC's has a few key injuries in Luis Silva (CAM), Julio Ceasar (CDM), Stefan Frei (GK), and Kyle Bekker (CAM) is just getting over the flu so I doubt he'll start. This means we should see a similar line up to the team that lost 1-0 to Vancouver last week except Bostock will likely replace Bekker. SKC is projected as the top team in the Eastern Conference and rightfully so. After a slow start away to Philly last week, they had a strong last 60 minutes and came back from a goal down to win 3-1. I expect a similar score line in this game and perhaps even a win to nil for SKC as Robert Earnshaw is the only healthy striker capable of doing damage but I doubt he's 100 match fit yet. The wild card in this game is the fact that it's being played at Toronto's Roger's Centre (indoors on artificial turf) and not BMO field (due to the weather). Either way, there's plenty of value on SKC. I personally will go with the -1AH at 3.350 at Bet 365. Even a straight win at over evens looks worthwhile. Every week MLSsoccer.com's journalists make their picks and all 6 chose SKC for this game. It's the only game they all agreed on this week.

  7. We are down to the last 6 teams. Top 3 qualify and 4th will go in to a play off with the Oceania's top finisher I believe. Looking at the games tomorrow, Honduras looks value at home to USA. In the last round of group stages, didn't do so well away. They tied Guatemala 1-1, Lost to Jamaica 2-1 and only beat Antigua & Barbados 1-2. I rank Honduras above all of those teams especially when they are at home. DNB at evens (bet365) looks tempting but I'm going to hold off and look to jump on opportunities that may arise in play. The game I'm definitely jumping on is Mexico at home to Jamaica. Mexico has won every home WCQ since June 15th, 2001. The stadium and fans create a very intimidating atmosphere and the elevation of the city creates fitness issues for the away team. Jamaica's team consists of a lot of players plying their trade in the UK and the long flight back and short camp with the team will also hurt their chances. Mexico has a good core of domestic players and I'm confident they'll get the job done. The odds aren't great, but -1 AH @ 1.30 (bet 365) seems like a good addition to an accy. I also like -1 AH HT @ 2.075. I don't know all the team news so don't blindly follow me but these might be some opportunities you want to look into.

  8. Re: International Friendlies > 2013 USA should be a banker. Although it's not an A team, they are basically an MLS all-star team. Canada on the other hand looks like a TFC (worst team in MLS) testimonial game roster. I'm going to play around with a cheeky -1.75 HT AH @ B365 for 5.25. Also -1 HT AH is at 2.657 which also looks good value for what should be a safe bet. If you really want to play it safe, you can do a -1 FT AH as I don't think there is any USA can lose this.

  9. Re: Capital 1 Cup 10/19 December Arsenal have named a pretty strong squad with carzola, podolski and wilshere. I think they'll want to bag a few early goals and have this done and dusted at half time so they can freely rest whomever they want. I just took arsenal -1 AH at half time at 2.85 and I was expecting it to be much lower.

  10. Re: all lower leagues and Cups > 2012/13 Not 100% but I believe it's Kapfenberg with the more severe absences. I've gone for two parlays: Austria lusteneau -1 AH and St Poltten -1 AH @2.325 (bet 365). I've also gone for both teams to cover -1 AH at half time @ 7.5625 (bet 365). I honestly don't know a lot about the league but I've been following it lately and these top teams tend to win by a couple goals. The opposition in both games are low in the table with poor goal differentials. Both AL and StP are at home and I'd expect them to have a comfortable game and bring home 3pts before the winter break to keep the pressure on each other.

  11. Re: Bundesliga 3 > November 9th - November 10th I was looking to grab -1 ah on Unterhaching as well. Don't know much about the league or teams but reviewed the match info on soccerway.com and noticed all of the points mentioned above too. It also shows Kruels had a red card for Babelsberg's last match so the suspension should be served here and is another reason to back the home team.

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