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Posts posted by Stressy

  1. Re: Club Friendlies 2014 Line ups are out for Toronto and Tottenham. TFC has their strongest forwards starting (Defoe & Gilberto) but the midfield is weak in my opinion with 2 bench players. Defence looks a real liability with 2 wing backs who have seen little to no starting minutes. Centre backs are okay but could get lit up by EPL talent. Back up goalie is starting too. From what I can tell, spurs have a fairly strong line up and I expect them to score in the first half. I already have a bit on spurs to score in both halves and as soon as it's inplay I'm going to look for a -1 ah half time bet.

  2. Re: Club Friendlies 2014 As a Toronto supporter, I see a lot of value in Tottenham tonight. Toronto played a similar mid season friendly last year against Roma and lost 4-1. Toronto has gotten better players since then however they have some injured starters and are in the middle of a 8 game July. 5 of those games have already been played so they are going to rotate heavily. They already recalled all of their loans for the game and the coach has already alluded to resting some players. Similar to the Roma game, I expect Toronto to field a mix of starters and bench players for the first half. For the second half, they will bring in all the fringe players. I think the best opportunities will be inplay betting by keeping an eye on the substitutions. Once players like Richter, hall, Hamilton, aparicio, weidaman, Morgan etc dominate the line up, that's the time to lump on Spurs -1ah for the half. In my opinion there's some decen value to be had pregame too. I like spurs to score in both halves at 2.37 (b365). The straight win at 1.72 isn't bad either. With Defoe likely to start TFC could nick the first goal (like they did against Roma) so a cheeky bet on spurs to win from behind at 9 could be fruitful. I'm definitely going to try and take advantage of the inplay markets given my familiarity with the players and their capabilities. Good luck to anyone who plays.

  3. Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) There's a few match ups I like this week: Although they are playing away, I'm going to play Montreal +0.5 AH @ 2.05 (B365). Both teams last game was a loss to SKC 2-1 with a late goal. Columbus however played as early as last Wednesday so Montreal might be fresher. Will Trapp also picked up a red card in Columbus match and Arrieta was withdrawn due to injury so they both sit out of this one. Montreal's line up looks capable of grinding out a result and in my opinion maybe even win. For similar reasons, I like Chicago -1 AH @ 2.65. Both teams have been doing okay as of late but Philly played mid week and Chicago might be fresher. Some of Philly's in form players are older guys like Connor Casey so I think they will be a little off. They also have an interm coach tinkering with new line ups which might work against them. Chicago has been unlucky to tie so often and I think Mike Magee will start hitting his MVP stride soon and they'll start picking up the results. And again, Dallas-1 AH @ 2.65 because New England played mid week. Also NE's form has been terrible lately and Soares picked up a red card last game and is unavailable. Dallas haven't played in 10 days i believe so they should have had plenty of time to figure out a winning game plan here. Not sure what to make of the Toronto game. Originally wanted to get some juicy odds on the away win but now we are missing two starting defenders (Bloom, Caldwell) and Jackson in the midfield who often did a lot of good defensive work. I think both teams to score is likely but they priced it up right and it's not appealing to me.

  4. Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Like Toronto and Vancouver again tonight. Both are playoff contenders facing lower table quality teams. Houston has had lots of problems with a depleted squad. They are likely getting a bunch of defenders back but even if they are named to the starting 11, it will take a bit to get back in game shape. As long as toronto don't tinker with their formation like they did the first half of last game, I think they can out score Houston by a goal or two. Van city is always a threat with their pace. Chivas have been doing well given where they were last year but I think Torres goal streak is going to dry up soon and they'll have a hard time getting results. Once again I see Vancouver by a couple goals.

  5. Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Alright I'll try and resurrect this thread from the dead. Two games I like tonight are TFC over DC and Vancouver over Seattle. I'm more confident in Vancouver. They should have pretty close to a first choice line up while Seattle has lots of selection issues. The two starting centre mids are suspended due to yellow card accumulation. Dempsey and Yedlin are just getting back from the World Cup and the coach hinted that he thinks they need more time to rest. With 4 influential first choice players missing, I think Vancouver should win comfortably at home. They are coming off some poor results so I think they'll be eager to turn that around. Straight win is not bad at 2.1 (b365) but I expect a win by a couple so I'm going -1 ah @ 3.1. As for TFC, I like how they've been playing lately. Defence has been rather solid and they are creating more chances than the beginning of the season. I think DC is an average team and they be missing their most influential forward, Espindola. TFC already beat them at home this season and if expect them to do it again. Once again I'm being a little greedy and going with -1 ah @ 2.75 because I think defoe can really capatilize on a slower cb pairing. Im im going low stakes on a parlay of the two above. I've also done a very low stakes -1 ah halftime parlay of the two games above as I think both home teams will come out of the gate looking for an early lead.

  6. Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Some attractive odds for TFC against SKC this Friday night. TFC are heavy dogs right now which normally wouldn't be too crazy but SKC is in a bit of a defender crisis at the moment. They had to start a teenager in their last game and he ended up getting suspended so they are now looking even further down the depth chart. Collin one of their starters is in a fitness race but even if he's back he likely won't be 100%. With Defoe, TFCs offense is always going to be able to pot a goal or two. They'll have some midfielders (Osorio, Jackson and Bradley) out but I think they are still more than capable to make a game of it and maybe even win. I'll be looking at handicaps (-0.75 for TFC at low stakes, an probably 0.25) tFC to score (1st or 2nd half. Maybe both) and anytime goal scorer markets (Defoe). Anyway, might be worth some looks so I figured I'd highlight it early as I expect odds to drop a bit.

  7. Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) I was able to get evens for both MTL-MTL and Vancouver DNB after the TFC goal. Both bets came in and my team still advanced. Was a good night. I agree with deadeye, next few weeks are going to be tricky with World Cup players leaving but it might also present some good opportunities. I'll keep posting if I see anything decent.

  8. Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Leaning towards Vancouver after seeing the line ups. Morales, manneh, and hurtado should have too much for TFC's back line. Hagglund has shown well but he's fresh out of university with little experience. Morgan is error prone and despite all his potential, Henry is always good for giving up penalties or drawing cards. Will be cheering TFC though. Hoping Gilberto finally breaks the ice and gains some confidence.

  9. Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) I expect Montreal to do the business (for the same reasons Meatman has suggested) but my only concern is Edmonton parks the bus and tries to hit on the counter. Boaki for Edmonton is dangerous so they have a chance but Montreal is under a lot of pressure and I think they'll go for a blow out and use this game as a turning point. last year Toronto went to Montreal up 2-0 from the first leg and got blown out 6-0. I also think the Vancouver Toronto game is a toss up until the squads are released. Vancouver confirmed the young goalie is starting and they'll likely go with more youths again. I expect it'll be a better mix of reserves and 1st team this time. If TFC play their first team then I expect it'll be a close game. If TFC tries to mix 1st and reserves then Vancouver should win as their depth is better.

  10. Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Really pathetic performance from TFC. On paper they should have won by at least 3 given it was mostly their A squad vs. Vancouver's C squad. Vancouvers inexperience really showed but TFC were so bad they couldn't take advantage. I guess it wasn't totally surprising and hence I went for the coverage at -1.

  11. Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Although it's not an MLS game, it's between two MLS teams so I'm going to write about it here. TFC host Vancouver in the first leg of the Canadian Championship semi final. Vancouver didn't travel with a full squad and have confirmed they are resting their two CB's and #1 goalie. A 17 year old is getting the start in net and the coach also confirmed a few more youths will get a run out. With a league game this weekend, they won't field anything close to their top 11. Tfc on the other hand have a bye this weekend so they don't have to worry about resting anyone. They are also playing at home and have a lot of pressure to start winning again after a couple bad league losses. Julio Cesar will be rested and joe bendik will start in goal. I don't view this as too significant because joe was out starting keeper last year and was one of very few bright spots on the team. Only injury concerns are Osorio and Orr but these aren't make or break players. I fully expect all 3 of TFCs designated players to start (Defoe, Bradley, Gilberto). The he way this cup seems to work (based on the last couple of years) is that you start a strong team at home and try and build up a big enough lead to only send the reserves to the away leg. I fully expect this to be TFCs approach and I expect they won't settle for less than a 2 goal lead. When I threw down before typing TFC -1 ah was 3.00 at b365. It's now dropped to 2.6 and I imagine it might continue to slide a little. -1 ah half time was 6.1 but has now dropped to 5.5. Might still be worth consideration. The other semi final between Edmonton and Montreal is tonight as well. I'm not as confident about this one but Montreal might be worth a shout. Edmonton plays in a lower division and they have started the season poorly. They have also played 6 games in the last 19 days or something close to that. My only doubt is what type of team Montreal will field away. They have a game Saturday so it might be a mix of youth and experience. I still feel like Montreal can get a result but this might be better to wait for team news.

  12. Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) It's a cool, windy and rainy day here in Toronto. I'm expecting another ugly scrappy game and I don't think it's wise to bet TFC at the current odds. Yes Defoe, Bradley and a few others are likely going to be back but given the conditions, I think NE could easily nick one or two. I like Meatman's picks and I'm also considering a -1 ah on the galaxy. Only thing that concerns me is the altitude. However, galaxy has far more quality and they will be motivated to put points on the board with their games in hand. I also think colorado has been punching above their weight until last weeks big loss. I think they will continue to slide a bit.

  13. Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) I think it's a no bet right now. If Bradley is confirmed out when they release the squads then Colorado draw no bet might be worth some consideration. Personally I'm going to head to the game and try and get a feel for it in the first 15 minutes before considering an in play option. I'm not overly confident in Toronto's chances and I think the depth players that came up huge last week might struggle here and show why everyone was backing Columbus last week. Its a a beautiful day in Toronto but I'm sure the pitch is only a bit better than the DC game. So perhaps another gritty long ball game is on the cards.

  14. Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) I think Toronto will be in trouble if Bradley doesn't start. He's doubtful right now but if he doesn't start, TFC's midfield quality will drop significantly. Looks like Defoe, Bradley, Osorio and Rey are out for Toronto. That'll be a big blow so I'm not sure TFC should be favourites. I think a draw might be a fair result but I honestly don't know a lot about Colorado other than they've never won at BMO field against Toronto (they did win the MLS Cup at BMO field as a neutral venue).

  15. Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Two more games interest me; Im considering Montreal at home to New York. New York has some key injuries (Cahill, eckersley) and it doesn't look like Henry or Olave will play on the terrible artificial turf. With these 4 out, NY is severely weakend. Montreal has had a slow start but now that Da Viao is back they should be much more of a threat. I like their chances given the weakened NY squad and their familiarity with the turf field. The other is Vancouver at home to Colorado. Not a whole lot here other than Vancouver looks real dangerous so far. They made some great signings and have a potent attack. Colorado is a hit or miss team in my eyes but they seem to only be scoring from penalties at the moment and they gave up 3 goals last week to SKC. This is another turf game and I think the home team will be more comfortable and come out on top. Considering a parlay of the two above with Columbus.

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