Stressy
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Posts posted by Stressy
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Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Toronto has a bit of a crisis at the moment so I see a lot of value in their match up in Columbus tomorrow. First of all, Columbus is the last team in MLS that has a perfect record (9pts from 3 games). TFC will be without Jermain Defoe (has all 3 TFC goals this season), Jonathan osario (cm who had good chemistry alongside Bradley. He missed last game and they got pumped 3-0), and both starting cb's, Caldwell (cpt) and Henry. The back line was always a bit of a weak link to begin with and now with the missing cb's they are going to be really vulnerable. I'm all over the -1 Asian @ 2.75 (b365). I'm also considering higuain anytime goal scorer @ 2.62. He's going to be a handful for TFC and really is a cut above most MLS attackers. He's also likely going to take care of dead ball opportunities.
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Re: CONCACAF Champions League 2013/2014 I've parlayed Cruz Azul -1.25 ah half time (3.7) with Toluca -1.25 ah half time (3.55) for a combined 13.135 (b365). Same reasoning as above for Cruz Azul. Expecting them to try and put it out of reach by half time. For Toluca, San Jose has injury and suspension issues with their defence and I think that will be the nail in the coffin. Also playing at high altitude so early in their season will creat even more issues. Expecting Toluca to put it beyond reach by half as well.
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Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Their defence looked very poor in the first game and Portland has above average fire power up front (in MLS) so that's why I'm looking at Portland -1 Asian handicap. Not a fan of over/unders myself but it doesn't sound like a bad shout. MLS is a funny league though, especially early in the season, so I'd keep the stakes relatively low if you're managing your bankroll tight
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Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) I agree with the pick above. Would maybe even consider Vancouver on a -1 asian handicap at a juicy 4.25 (all b365). As a Toronto FC fan, I'll try to continue to weigh in on their games when I can. TFC plays away to Seattle tomorrow which will no doubt be a tough match. All the MLS website journo's are picking Seattle and I understand why but the result is a no bet for me. It really depends how quickly the new look TFC has gelled and if they show up on the day. However, I'm enticed by some of the anytime goalscorer odds. Seattle appear to be heavy favourites and as a result the prices on TFC goal scorers look pretty good. The obvious choice is Jermain Defo at 3.75. He's a high quality striker for this league and his pace might trouble the Seattle back line. He also has to be a strong candidate for penalties. De-Ro (De Rosario) is my value pick at 7.00. With our new Brazilian striker Gilberto sidelined with an injury, it looks like De-Ro will get the start up top alongside Defoe. De-Ro is always a dangerous player and if Seattle concentrate too much on wrapping up Defoe, he might get some solid opportunities. He's also a strong candidate for penalties. Lastly, Michael Bradley might be worth a punt at 11.00. He curled in a wonderful free kick in preseason and that may have won him the right to take all the dangerous free kicks until he goes cold. I heard it's been raining and might rain tomorrow so the slick turf surface might lead to more sloppy fouls in and around the box. Other's I'm considering: - New York -1 AH (2.25): NY was embarrassed last week but if they have Henry and Olave back, I expect them to show strong at home as usual. Colorado had a surprising season last year but their coach left to Dallas and they just announced their new coach (ex player) after a drawn out saga. Could see them getting off the mark slowly. - Portland -1 AH (2.075) - Portland is always strong at home and they'll want to show better after a draw in week 1. Chicago lost and conceded 3 against Chivas (who I rate well below Portland) in week 1. A Parlay of NY, PORT, VAN -1 AH rolls up to 19.84. Might just have a cheeky low stakes punt at this because after all, it's only week 2 so anything can happen.
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Re: FA Cup > January 24th - 26th Too be honest I don't know much about Bournemouth but that Liverpool XI looks very strong and I imagine they'll want to put this game out of reach by half time so that they can make some subs and play at a lower tempo in the second (with an eye on Tuesdays derby). I like both -1 half time Asian at 2.3 and -1.75 Asian halftime at 4.4 (both b365). Liverpool has done well in first halves and they certainly have enough fire power in that XI to score a couple goals early
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Re: Ligue 2 > December 13th - 16th Thanks Meatman. It's impossible to win them all and I appreciate your detailed analysis week in and week out. Good luck this weekend if you play.
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Re: France Ligue 1 (6-8 Dec) Can anyone provide an update on the st etienne game? Why was it postponed? Weather? Are they planning to play tomorrow instead?
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Re: Juventus v FC København > Wednesday November 27th Must win game for both teams. I expect Juve will want to impose themselves and put the game away early. On paper they are levels above their opposition. Kobenhavn have given up 7 goals in 2 away games so far in this tournament. I think there is value in Juve -1 Asian half time at 1.9 (b365). This bet would have paid out and pushed in Kobenhavn's other two away games. Im considering parlaying with the same bet in City' favour.
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Re: International Friendlies > 2013 Does anyone have any knowledge on how Czech Rep is approaching the friendly with Canada? As a canadian it's obvious we are in a rebuilding period with a few experienced players but many young inexperienced players too. I expect us to lose if the Czechs play at least a few starters. I'll try and do a more detailed write up later but there might be a really good opportunity to bet on the Czechs to win a specific half depending on when the young players play. In the Australia game, it was 1-0 Aussies at half and then the coach put all the youngings in and Australia pulled away. Could be a similar situation here.
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Re: World Cup Play-Offs Asia/Oceana/America > Wednesday November 13th If I'm not mistaken, New Zealand recently lost a friendly against Chivas USA. If they couldn't even beat one of the worst teams in MLS they are in for a tough night. Also, I wouldn't underestimate Mexicos domestic players. A good chunk already start for their national team anyway and it's not like their "euro super stars" have been lighting it up lately. I have no doubt New Zealand will park the bus but since I can afford to take some risks, I'm going to look at a -1 ah half time parlayed with the same bet in Uruguays favour.
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Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday November 7th Just a small correction of the post above. Salzburg are Austrian not German and they are top of the Austrian Bundesliga not Bundesliga 2. Its worth noting that the reverse fixture ended 2-1 for Salzburg and there were 3 red cards. If I'm not mistaken all 3 of those players (mane for Salzburg, carcela and Kanu for SL) will be suspended for this game.
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Re: USA > MLS - 2013 As a Toronto Supporter I think we'll lose but my hearts telling me not to bet this one. Nesta didn't travel with Montreal and their back line is already a bit suspect at times. We're out of the play offs but we also get the chance to ruin that dream for our biggest rivals. Some players will be trying to win a spot for next season so there is some motivation. It's also going to be pretty cold and windy tomorrow with a chance of rain which might affect the quality of play. On the other hand, TFC's beat reporter's projected line up (based on what he saw in training the other day) suggests our first round draft pick, Bekker, is going to get the start in midfield. I haven't been very impressed with how he's been adapting to the league . He will be paired in the centre with our other rookie and this will likely be a weak link for Montreal to exploit. We will also feature three young defenders who are inconsistent so far. Im going to wait for the line ups and hope that toronto maybe nick a first half goal. If they do and Montreal don't look too out of sorts, I'm going to go heavy on the dnb comeback.
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Re: Ligue 2 > October 25th - 28th Well done meat man! Followed your three tips and I'm very grateful for your insights.
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Re: Capital One Cup > Tue 27th August
I think Fulham' date=' WBA, Liverpool, and Norwich are fielding relatively strong squads compared to their L2 competition. I honestly know very little about league two but I'm taking a long shot punt on all 4 teams to cover -1 ah at half time. All sides are fielding at least a few regulars and/or new signings who I think can make a difference. Add in a few youngsters looking to impress early in the season and I think it's worth a shot. Fulham is the only away side so I'm a bit worried with them but with Bent, Taarab, and Ruiz, they have some decent attacking threats.[/quote'] Glad I went with the HT results. Fulham pushed but the other 3 provided a multiplier a little over 9. At halftime I did -1 Sunderland parlayed with -1 rangers (Glasgow) and can't believe what I just read about the Sunderland game. Basically stopped following after they went down 2-0. Good day all around. -
Re: Capital One Cup > Tue 27th August I think Fulham, WBA, Liverpool, and Norwich are fielding relatively strong squads compared to their L2 competition. I honestly know very little about league two but I'm taking a long shot punt on all 4 teams to cover -1 ah at half time. All sides are fielding at least a few regulars and/or new signings who I think can make a difference. Add in a few youngsters looking to impress early in the season and I think it's worth a shot. Fulham is the only away side so I'm a bit worried with them but with Bent, Taarab, and Ruiz, they have some decent attacking threats.
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Re: USA > MLS - 2013 No Henry or Cahill for Nyrb. Take them off the ticket. Sea looks good still
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Re: USA > MLS - 2013 Not going to spend much time on this one but here's my half baked tip for tomorrow, Aug. 10th: my money is on a Seattle -1 ah and NY -1 parlayed. Came out to a little over 13 on b365. Seattle is playing away at Toronto. Toronto is coming off of a 2 game winning streak but as a fan I've seen they could have also easily lost those games. They are still rebuilding a new squad and they are getting better but they lack goals and attacking talent. Seattle on the other hand have a a very potent attack and they just splashed a lot of money on Clint Dempsey who might make his debut as a substitute. Seattle have started the season slow but they've picked up more points lately and look to be gaining some momentum. They are the better team on paper and I think their offense will be too much for TFC. NYRB are one of the more elite teams in the league and they appear to be coming into this game with good form. Columbus on the other hand have dropped a lot of points including a recent defeat to my poor TFC. NYRB haven't lost to Columbus in 3 years and I think there's a really good chance that streak will continue.
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Re: USA > MLS - 2013 Unlucky, NYRB had a perfectly good goal ruled offside. They really should have done better though.
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Re: USA > MLS - 2013 Toronto FC vs. New York Red Bulls (July 20th): As a TFC fan, we've hit rock bottom (again). Got rid of one of our better attacking players (Luis) and one of our better defenders (O'dea) with no real meaningful signings other than some depth bench players. We lost mid week to a terrible Chivas team even though we were playing a man up for nearly 3/4 of the game. Our top scorer (Earnshaw) was subbed at half with a hamstring injury and he's been confirmed as out for tomorrow. Without him, our attacking options are pretty dire. Our defence is also pretty poor with a lot of young unpolished, error prone players. NYRB is a solid team and especially when Henry is on. He seems to score every time at BMO and I have a feeling they are going to run riot tomorrow. Their away record isn't very encouraging but 2.30 for the win (Bet 365) is very appealing. Personally, I'm going -1 AH @ 3.55 because I think they'll bag a few and TFC's offence will stutter as usual. However, since this is the MLS and anything can happen, the -0.25 @ 2.00 is likely a safe bet with decent pay. Good luck if you play.
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Re: USA > MLS - 2013 Ouch
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Re: USA > MLS - 2013 Looking at the odds for tomorrow June 15th, Montreal over Columbus jumps out at me. I guess it's because they are at home, but I don't know how Columbus are the favourites. They got pumped 3-0 by Philly (whom I think are average) and then they lost Thursday night in US Open Cup vs. Chicago. They did rest some starters but most played and their starting centre back tore his ACL. Demoralized, disorganized and tired is how imagine they will compete. Montreal on the other hand... Top of the East, coming off two weeks rest (although that could backfire), 12 goals in their last 5 games, 3 MLS wins and 2 tough Canadian Championship draws (and win on away goals). Is home advantage really that good? MLS.com's editors all picked Montreal to win and that's what it certainly looks like to me. The straight 3.10 (b365) to win looks juicy, but I'm going to be greedy and go for the -1 AH @ 5.75. Was up at 6 earlier in the day and I'm upset for not pulling the trigger earlier. For the smarter gamblers out there, 2.25 for the Draw No Bet looks the wisest option. MLS is definitely an "anything can happen" league and it's probably wise to go for a little insurance. good luck if you play.
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Re: USA > MLS - 2013 Here's this week's picks by the MLS.com team http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/2013/04/19/pick-em-mlssoccercom-editors-pick-week-8-matches Toronto vs. Houston: Toronto could be in some serious trouble here. Our first choice RB (Eckersely) is injured, our first choice LB (Morgan) is suspended and our second choice (Russel) to replace either of those two is injured as well. New signing and Richter will likely get a start (very young and inexperienced at this level) and the other full back will either be a very young and inexperienced Emory who is returning from shoulder surgery or one of our CB depth players being asked to play out wide. Whomever they line up, it's going to be a less than ideal back line. Also, if anyone on the back line should get injured/tired and need to come out, the quality is going to drop even further. Houston is a much better team and they have strong wing play which makes TFC's full back issues an even bigger problem. Houston's Garcia might not start as he's just returned from injury and TFC should count themselves lucky if that's still the case. Even if he doesn't start or even make it off the bench, Houston is a far superior team who can do damage to TFC. As you can tell, I really like Houston in this match up but the only thing that has me a little worried is the cold/windy weather today in Toronto. If Houston can cope with the cold and the wind then they should win. Personally I like Houston -1 AH @ 3.350 (Bet 365). However, if money is tight, you might want to stick with the 1.61 draw no bet for Houston as it still offers decent value with the cover. Good luck if you play any MLS games this weekend.
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Re: USA > MLS - 2013 Well I really wish I had took my own advice as everyone of those tips (except the scorecast) were winners.
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Re: USA > MLS - 2013 The MLS.com editors have all made their picks and they seem to agree on a lot of the outcomes. http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/2013/04/12/pick-em-mlssoccercom-editors-pick-mls-week-7-matches Philly vs. Toronto: Although 5 editors picked a Philly win and the other picked a draw, I think this game could go either way. Toronto's top RB Richard Eckersley is likely out due to hamstring injury. For some reason, he's been playing LB the last few games and hasn't been too effective so with natural LB Ashton Morgan replacing him, it shouldn't be too big of a loss. Ideally, Morgan should play LB and Eckersley should play RB but the coach has recently preferred Eckersley out of position and playing Darel Russel in his RB spot instead. Russel isn't a natural defender and he's been burned in back to back games and will be a liability in this game. Thankfully, it looks like Luis Silva is finally fit enough to regain his starting place in the midfield and will likely replace the injured Dunfield. Luis Silva adds creativity and is an attacking threat and TFC desperately needs him now. It's been reported TFC might shuffle some of their attacking players around (moving Hogan Ephraim out to wing and bringing John Bostock in to a CAM role) to create more synergies and I think this will really help. TFC has been complaining about the "sticky" pitch at our home field and they have pointed to it as one of the reasons the attack hasn't been firing on all cylinders. With a decent pitch in Philly, I expect TFC will create some chances and might nick a goal or two. I'm not well versed on Philly but they are an average side. They are only a few points up the table on TFC and in my opinion, they've had a far easier schedule thus far. Some bets that might be worthwhile are as follows (all bet365): - Both Teams to Score @ 1.80 - TFC +0.5 AH @ 2.00 - Jack McInerney (philly) any time goalscorer @ 3.00 - Robert Earnshaw (tfc) any time goalscorer @ 3.60 Personally, I'm going to watch in play and the only bets I've placed beforehand are: Robert Earnshaw Anytime Scorecast with Toronto 1-0 @46.00 (very low stakes) Robert Earnshaw Anytime Scorecast with Toronto 2-0 @46.00 (very low stakes) Robert Earnshaw Anytime Scorecast with Toronto 2-1 @ 31.00 (very low stakes) Quick thoughts on some of the other games: - Seattle is underpriced home to New England - Seattle had a heartbreaking champions league loss Tuesday night in Mexico and they are still missing some key players. They are the better team but I'd suggest watching in play to see how the game swings. New England also announced one of their top players was diagnosed with Leukaemia this week so that could either be a distraction or something to rally behind. Similarly with Seattle, maybe the CL loss will be a motivator. - Vancouver and Real Salt Lake is a toss up and seems to be priced appropriately. - FC Dallas vs. LA Galaxy - LA had a heart breaking CL loss on Wednesday night in Mexico and thats why imagine they are under dogs. I would expect the odds to be closer in a normal situation. I think FC Dallas is overrated but they are quick so they could burn LA who might have tired legs. Probably a no bet or an in-play for me. - Chivas vs Colorado - Colorado keep surprising me but I think I'm going to oppose them again as I like Chivas who have a young, creative, attack minded team made up primarily of players with latin/mexican heritage and they seem to offer something different than most MLS sides. 2.25 at home seems decent but i'll probably bet in play to try and get better odds and a read for how the game is going. Good luck to anyone who has a go this week.
MLS 2014 (USA/Canada)
in MLS Predictions
Posted
Re: MLS 2014 (USA/Canada) Meatman, great to have you on board. Been following your french tips for ages and consider you a well informed punter. Forgot to mention that Bradley went 90 minutes on Wednesday night. Even more of a reason to side with Columbus in some manner.