NoFear
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Posts posted by NoFear
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Re: Shakhtar Donetsk v Athletic Bilbao > Tuesday November 25th toto, isnt EL now a possible route since it awards a CL place? In the la liga table, they are 9 points behind valencia and 8 behind sevilla, both teams who could be hard to peg back. Surely, if Athletic was my club I would also keep my options open in europa league. Sevilla won it last year so Bilbao should see themselves are challangers at least, now that they are starting to hit some form.
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Re: Ludogorets Razgrad v Liverpool > Wednesday November 26th according to uefa, Basel will be through if they win and Liverpool do not win. That kills all the ifs and buts for me. Yeah, its unlikely for them to win against Real, but stranger things have happened and Basel are a strong home team, already beaten liverpool, ludo and Real can still top the group even if they lose. Real wont be complacent but they do have a habit off only doing just about enough away as we saw at ludogorets. Surely, liverpool cant go in here looking for anything other than a win. Can they? Maybe they can but that would be like shooting yourself in the foot. Anfield is not the fortress it used to be, I am sure Rodgers knows that and Basel could certainly win there. So I reckon if they are not looking for a win , there is something wrong. Only exception is that when its late in second half and rodgers gets news that Real are 3 goals up or something (unlikely imo, odds of over 5/1 for me personally), he might be happy with a draw and play only on the counter. If Basel draw, likely imho, they will be on 7 points and only needing to draw at anfield. So I reckon liverpool have to go in this game thinking its a must win at least until the 70th min. I mean what do u do when you are drawing 0:0 and so is Basel. Surely you have to go get that win or else you are giving a good counter-attacking team like Basel chance to sit back at Anfield and counter at will.
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Re: DP World Tour Championships > November 20th - 23rd
do u know anything bout the drift on poulter. He could have been backed at 25/1 earlier and can still be backed at 23/1 now. betfair. when u tipped him, best price was 18/1Welcome Imunday! For those considering Dubuisson, I believe he was hospitalized yesterday. -
Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Friday November 14th greece :lol
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Re: Liverpool v Chelsea > Saturday November 8th
mikels out injuredWell it was a similar situation at Old Trafford a couple weeks ago with Chelsea expected to pummel United but just holding onto a 0-1 lead and being overly cautious. Option 1: Mourinho is too cautious agian which opens the door for Liverpool to do something in this match. Option 2: He learnt his lesson from the "home refereeing" in the last minutes at Man U and goes straight for the jugular here. Once he gets 3 goals infront, THEN he can bring on Obi Mikel and do all his other negative changes. We'll see. One for in-play for me. -
Re: How has the online poker landscape changed over the past few years fellow PLers?
you have hit the nail on the head there.The worst of it all is no Stars France or Winamax anymore either, Stars Fr was excellent. The days of break even regs grinding volume and cashing in off the bonuses look dead, you've actually got to be decent now. -
Re: How has the online poker landscape changed over the past few years fellow PLers?
yeah, just been doing my research and real the 2+2 thread. Unbelievable. Plus rake on addons and rebuys for UK players!! :eekAmaya are ruining Stars also with loads of new changes in the last month or so.
of course. How else can you become a winner? EDIT - Also, seems like, MTTs are the way to go if you can handle the variance since they will be the least affected by the rake increase.Dont bother taking it too seriously unless you're prepared to dedicate your life to it. -
I used to play poker online a lot (NL holdem $1-$2 tables and MTTs, $20 SNGs). This was about 5 years ago. Days when partypoker was king and fulltilt was owned by the professional poker players. Nowadays, I mainly do sportsbetting and you can find me on the sports forum here at PL. I wanted to get back into poker though and wanted to ask what has changed. Are there any decent rooms other than pokerstars for a professional player? Laws have tightened up all over the place? Hows the scene in general? Do we still get decent fish on the tables or have things dried up after all the bad press and laws that have come into place, especially in the US. Love to hear your thoughts on these and other things.
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Re: BREEDERS CUP FRI / SAT 1ST NOV I wasnt on but nicely done. Look forward to your tips tomorrow. More of the same I take it? :ok
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Re: BREEDERS CUP FRI / SAT 1ST NOV u can also watch it live on breederscup.com
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Re: Ligue 2 > October 31st - November 3rd
that definitely helps. I can vouch for this. :okGoing for a walk in the hills to think about potential selections -
Re: Manchester United v Chelsea > Sunday October 26th I am surprised, no one mentioned the betfair premium charge. Thats the reason why I am moving away from them. Any serious punter will get hit sooner or later for 70% of their profits. :puke
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Re: Manchester United v Chelsea > Sunday October 26th
Gutted. Oh well' date=' did 90% of my bank on this gamble. Got 10% left rebuild. Was counting my money at 93 minutes dang it :)[/quote'] this is why should always have a proper bank management in place. Just amazing how you could bet 90% of your bank. Gamblers and mugs do that not professional bettors. -
Re: Manchester United v Chelsea > Sunday October 26th
Yes, mate. Just hope we can find an angle here that gives us some edge. IMHO last year chelsea lacked the cutting edge in the midfield as well. Mata had a great game away at united last year, but as a player I dont rate him much. And he hasnt done anything at United for me to change my mind yet. He is an ok player, but not a brilliant one. I also think Hazard is a better player this year than last. So is Schurrle. You probably see me mentioning his name a few times in my posts but he does offer some flexibility and has grown over the last year. Was part of a great German team in the World Cup and can only see him get better. They didnt have Fabregas last year either. It's just a much better team for me with players like Salah not even getting into the starting 11. Against Man City, you may call it woeful or that he set them up as a counter-attacking unit. City really had a history of struggling against counter attacks. They lost to decent mid-table countering teams like Aston Villa, etc, and have always been vulnerable on the counter attack in the past. This is starting to change as Mangala has the pace. But when you are playing city away, you know they will get bodies forward. So how best to take advantage. Well, you can counter. Its all about winning with Mou's Chelsea, doesnt matter whether its not easy on the eyes or not. Like Pellegrini said, they play like a small team, But also like Viera said, they have the grit to be the Invincibles this season, and go a season without losing. Although, I dont think thats easy as PL is getting really competitive. For me, the strikers are a big miss. I would have still been confident of Cheslea win had Remy been available, even if Costa wasnt. For now, they have a big disadvantage upfront which has turned their odds from value to -EV. But like I said, if Mou can find a way to utilize schurrle and the team in some way where they are pressuring Man United's defense a bit more and making up for their striker issues, they could win. But its a big ask, and atm the value call is the draw as both teams will be satisfied with a draw. Injury-hit Chelsea keeps its unbeaten run going while Man United manages to not lose against a big team at home. Di Maria will definitely start here and thats advantage ManU. So all in all, until we can find something else, I guess DRAW is the most likely outcome here.Chelsea weren't weak last year, they just lacked a striker... If Costa doesn't play the weekend, they have a very similar side to the one that played last year. They played WOEFUL at City, sat everyone behind the ball and didn't even try to attack, so bar the Everton game (Which Costa played), I haven't seen any tactical difference with Mourinho when he plays a big team away from home. Nice to have a debate though mate, that's what it's all about. I personally wouldn't back Overs or Unders here as it could go either way, that's just my opinion. I couldn't be confident of either. -
Re: Manchester United v Chelsea > Sunday October 26th I didnt suggest a big open expansive game btw. I said, "Personally, I think he will play a counter-attacking BUT very capable team, which will be much more dangerous on the counter than last years.". So yes, he will look for a win, be it 1:0 or whatever, in contrast to last year, where he was just looking for a 0:0 and started with no striker.
Of course. Strikers are their problem otherwise, they would be a great bet at the odds. FWIW I reckon they could score a couple and try and hold onto their lead, probably when its 0:1 or 1:2 after they score from a counter, although 1:1 is the most likely scoreline for me. All I was trying to point out was that their no point in comparing Chelsea's last years results where they were a weak team and looking for a 0:0 away than the current team who really hasnt been looking for 0:0 away at all and have always gone for wins. Against City, it could have easily been won had Costa not hit the bar. PS - I am no Chelsea fan. Just looking to make money as always.Chelsea will score, and will dominate possession, but I personally can't see them scoring 3 without Costa and Remy. -
Re: Manchester United v Chelsea > Sunday October 26th
but that was a different chelsea all together. Not the one that seems to be the all-conquering of this season, even away. Remember, everton away? City is a bigger team than the current Man UTD and I think Mou is clever enough to see that. Smaller teams have given man united defense big problems, so it would be foolish to play for a 0:0 or a draw here. Besides, Chelsea has been conceding regularly too and given the Man Utd attack force, you may well assume they will score if di Maria is on call. Chelsea may well set-up with a counter-attacking team, but they MUST test the Man Utd defense much more than say last year. Thats whats interesting for me. How do you test that defense when your main strikers are out and you are left with a 36-year old Drogba, who may not be fit yet and definitely not play 90 mins. Will starting schurrle upfront instead of Drogba be a better option. Like others have said, if either Remy or Costa started, Chelsea look worthy favs. But since both are out, its turned tactical now. I know mou has been defensive away to big teams in the past and may well do that here, but to win you have to exploit the weakness of an opponent and Man Utd's weakness is their defense. I know for a fact that if Mou wants a 0:0, he gets a 0:0. Doesnt matter if Man Utd's strike force is better than Barca or Real (it's not). But he said that last year it was not his team. He was managing a team as best as he could. But after he has done his business in the transfer market and have had time with the players, this year it is his team - a Champions League winning team, "with big balls and one who imposes itself on opponents". Personally, I think he will play a counter-attacking BUT very capable team, which will be much more dangerous on the counter than last years. But Man Utd will be happy with a draw against league leaders. And they may well match-manage so they dont concede on the counter. And that as well as costa/remy absence will bring the draw into the equation for me cos if either were fit, I dont think Mou would have gone there looking for a draw. I will add more thoughts later as I am running out of timeI personally with be a little bit weary of Overs on this on occasion. It's Mourinho away from home against, well, what used to be a big team :lol Mourinho will set his team up to play on the counter, hope to nick a goal and will defend that lead if they get it. They drew 1-1 at City, a game where Mourinho got his away goal and sat back but City scored late on. They beat Liverpool 2-0 away last season, beat City 1-0 away last season, drew 0-0 away to Arsenal, drew 1-1 away to Spurs and drew 0-0 at United... Big games where Chelsea play away from home generally tend to be Unders, so although I think there is a good chance of goals, I'd just be weary. -
Re: CSKA Moscow v Manchester City > Tuesday October 21st @UnitedForever - the fact that there would be no crowd should be taken into consideration when placing that cards bet.
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Re: Ligue 1 Orange > October 17th - 19th
won half with Rennes. Sadly I personally lost with Lille IR. Honestly havent got a clue how they lost that match' date=' Guingamp's win was one of the luckiest I have seen for a long time. Anyone who backed Lille either pre game or IR consider yourselves incredibly unfortunate. That match has left me stressed to fuck.[/quote'] Never stress over one result mate. Its just variance. Over and done with, now move on to the next set of games. Thats the way to do it. Dont take crap off anyone. Just study, play, play again and results and bankroll will take care of itself if you stay within your limits. Thats how I do it. So unlike you i am not worried about tonights result. I know its going to even out. -
Re: Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur > Saturday October 18th yaya is back and given the all clear to start against spurs.
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Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Tuesday October 14th
thanks, that gave a much clearer picture of what happened in the game. All I will say is that you can't fault the players from either team for what transpired. I watched the whole match and they acted professionally. The hooligans are the one that could be blamed but then again tensions were always going to be high for this one with all the weight of the history and the past. Kudos to both sets of players, especially those whose own families were affected by Kosovo War for at least trying to stay professional for as long as they could. You can blame the drone for provocation or the Serbian crowd for booing the Albanian national anthem or throwing bottles every time an Albanian player took a corner, but at the end of the day you can't blame anyone or you will have to blame everyone and everything. It's just a vicious cycle these two countries are caught up in. Hope, the second leg will get finished.Dron i zastava pa tuca na utakmici Srbija - Alban…: http://youtu.be/uDs5mwNRY7U -
Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Thursday October 9th they did get a corner at home against england if that helps to calm your nerves. ;)
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Re: Lithuania U19 - Scotland U19, 09th September well, lithuania were absolutely terrible against norway. I was watching inplay and they were really bad. Scotland arent any good either. Apart from your "insider" info, there's not really much to go on here. Members please do not go mental with your stake here unless you have other reasoning to go with your pick.
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Re: Betting on the Championship. Tips and tricks?
chaps, the following from luckoftheirish might make things a little clearer. Maybe this is whats affecting the price as more people realize this. Injury update and team news:Yup, forgot to mention that 42k of the money was on Rochdale. Massive punt.Rochdale 0,-0.5 @ 1.7...bet366...these teams played a couple of weeks ago in the league and I tipped Rochdale to win and they duly obliged 4-0.Of course this is the cup and anything can happen but I think it'll be another home win for the dale.The main two reasons for me are Tom Bradshaw and Romaine Sawyers.Between them they've scored 70% of the saddlers goals.Sawyers is gone off to join St Kitts and Nevis and Bradshaw has a hamstring injury.Sawyers blows hot and cold and gets a bit of stick from the fans but he scored the equaliser against Bristol City on Saturday and when he plays he can play.Bradshaw may miss out on the Welsh squad because of his injury and he's bound to be missed as he is Walsall's main cutting edge.Keith Hill says he will resist making wholesale changes and if his team is anywhere near the 1st eleven then I think they will have too much firepower for the saddlers.... -
Re: Betting on the Championship. Tips and tricks? well if there no news out then you guys are onto something.
Shakhtar Donetsk v Athletic Bilbao > Tuesday November 25th
in Champions League Predictions
Posted
Re: Shakhtar Donetsk v Athletic Bilbao > Tuesday November 25th
yeah in the end its not what you or I think, its what the coach thinks. If he wants to go only one way (la liga) to qualify, it certainly could be a good call given their squad limitations. But 9 points behind Valencia was what had me look into this carefully, since it wont be easy to get that 4th place even though we have a long season ahead. But you also dont wanna be in a situation where you are engaged in both and dont succeed in either. So I think you may have a point there. In the end if you know what this manager wants, your play on shakhtar is certainly a good one.