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NoFear

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Posts posted by NoFear

    Betting on the Championship. Tips and tricks?

    in Championship Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Betting on the Championship. Tips and tricks? thats probably based on some news that may have come out. Luton-Crawley match has 20k matched. Not as much but goes to show that 48k is not that out of the ordinary here, where as usually when you have a fix and the market notices it, the prices just crash big time, as layers dont dare lay. So you see odds drop from 4.00 to 1.90, etc. Rochdale just went from 2.25 to 2.00

    Betting on the Championship. Tips and tricks?

    in Championship Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Betting on the Championship. Tips and tricks?

    There's no way on earth that championship results are fixed. The biggest windfall any championship club or player could have is promotion to the premier league. Theres been a couple of players done haven't there? (Dj Campbell?) but nothing to do with the fixing of a games outcome. Something like first throw in can be mmanipulated but not matchresult when you've got 22 players out there.
    not if the goalie is involved or the ref. @Aidy - look, its not going to lead anywhere if we just argue about match-fixing. Not every game is fixed of course and TBH 99% wont be fixed but it was worth discussing since their are lower leagues in France, Italy, where the percentage is much higher when it comes to fixed games and I HAD to ask fellow punters about their own experience than just reading a report. When teams and players from bigger leagues than the Championship or Conference have been punished by the authorities , you would be naive to even suggest that "There has never been a grain of proof to even moderately suggest a championship game has been fixed". Well, since we dont want to derail the thread and since there is more to discuss than just match-fixing issues, I suggest we let it go. The main things about the championship: What is interesting is that we have three teams relegated from the premiership and three promoted from League 1. So 6 new teams in total change the dynamic every year, more so than in the Premier league. And thats why it could be very hard for the odds compilers to compile the right price, especially in the first half of the season. And I reckon if one has done the proper research, there's more value to be found than the premier league. Arguably, even the leagues that are lower than the champ may offer even better value for the smart punter but I reckon its much harder to do the research for them and to get a decent bet on.

    Betting on the Championship. Tips and tricks?

    in Championship Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Betting on the Championship. Tips and tricks? Incredible write-up @wisey10. I will write my proper thoughts later tonight as am working atm. @Aidy - come on mate, we are just having a discussion. Now that we have a few opinions, we can decide for ourselves. As you know there are definitely leagues where fixing is ripe. So better to know now whether it is best to avoid Championship games involving small clubs or spend hours on researching these smaller clubs which may have slipped the minds of the odd compiler and hence offer tremendous value. I personally agree that when big championship clubs are involved or during play-off matches, fixing wont be happening. But am not sure when a clubs most expensive player is a 10k bargain.

    Betting on the Championship. Tips and tricks?

    in Championship Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Betting on the Championship. Tips and tricks? TBH I actually think canaries91 is right. Some championship games could well be fixed since there are so many teams and bar a few who teams who pay a good salary to their players, rest may not be as generous. You do read figures like £5 million being paid for a player like Britt Assambolonga but on the flip side, Ipswich's most "expensive" player cost them around £10,000. The rest they got on a free. When you see Asians bookmakers laying bets of upto 10k per line movement on asian handicaps, I reckon players from the low profile teams could regularly be enticed to make "stupid" errors. The more I think about it, the more it seems that sticking to a major league like the Bundesliga along with the Premier League (in my situation) is the best option. Hopefully, regulars who bet on and watch Championship games can shed some more light on the matter. The telegraph article on this just last year shows that even Champions League matches may have been fixed. Mind-boggling when you think about the amount of money involved in football. But then again, all the big money changes hands in Asian Betting circuit, so no surprise really that they are involved.

    Match-fixing investigation finds 380 'fixed' games including Champions League match played in England Europol today launched the "biggest-ever investigation into suspected match-fixing in Europe" in which 425 match officials, club officials, players and criminals are suspected of being involved

    Betting on the Championship. Tips and tricks?

    in Championship Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Betting on the Championship. Tips and tricks? Hmmm..... do you really think that even in the championship the games can be bent? Really? I mean I have read all sorts of news reports about how some asian businessmen have paid a League One player/s, goalkeeper to throw a game but never thought championship would have this issue since even in the championship big money is at stake at either end of the table. Would love to know more from others as well who think in this day and age, the championship might have insider traders. French Ligue2 certainly does, and so do other european lower divisons. And the japenese leagues as well. There is a forum which documents these supposedly fixed games where the price on the HT/FT and O/U markets have fallen considerably to a point where its a coinflip between a fix or not-fixed. But as far as I am aware as a normal punter, Championship doesn't suffer from this since I very rarely if ever saw a championship game mentioned and its betfair markets screenshot. But I know very little about the championship anyway bar a few of the top teams so am not an expert on this by any stretch of the imagination.

    Betting on the Championship. Tips and tricks?

    in Championship Predictions

    Posted

    Throughout my life I have mostly been betting on the bigger leagues (PL, La Liga, etc), and I am guilty of not making enough time to post thorough posts on what I bet. Normally, I am juggling a few things at a time and just about have time to lurk around the forum. However, I am hoping to get more active here and start posting tips while I endeavour to move into betting on a lower league. I have chosen the Championship as the one I would like to look more into for a few reasons: 1. It's competitive and entertaining. 2. I can watch the games live for cheap. 3. It probably not as bent as say the French Ligue 2, or the Italian Serie B. Thoughts? 4. Even though one could make more money on even leagues even lower than the championship or the foreign second divisions, due to less interest on them by punters and hence the bookmakers and their traders, I like to keep it local as culture differences can be telling, and you can chat to locals during live matches about their teams, etc. 5. Championship knowledge can help when betting on FA cup and League Cup matches against Premier League teams. Things I need to start my journey and hopefully a few pros who bet on the championship can help here. 1. Where can I see Extended Highlights? (The BBC Football League show seems like a good starting point). 2. And good website for researching stats like "What's the winning % of underdogs over 6.00 or favs under @1.50 over the past 5 years"? 3. Any other decent websites for championship related research material, tactical analysis, previews, etc. 4. Any tips from the people who regularly bet on the championship? Would love to hear about your experiences. Once I have spent a few hours every day, hopefully within a week or two I will start posting some thorough tips on the championship thread and discuss things/info on a particular match with fellow punters.

    UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Thursday October 9th

    in Euro 2024 Tips & Predictions

    Posted

    Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Thursday October 9th

    Whilst I concur about England I'd be inclined to be just the tiniest bit more cautious about Belgium, though if England is a 10/10 Belgium is probably a 8/10. I just don't really trust Belgium that much, they drew at home with Chris Coleman's Wales, for one thing, and if memory serves they once conceded at home to San Marino as well.
    Andorra hadnt scored for many games but they did score in their last game. Belgium's defence should consist of Kompany and vertonghan, off the top of my head. Without going into full research, I reckon they are better than England to keep that clean sheet.

    Sky Bet Championhip > October 3rd - 5th

    in Championship Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Sky Bet Championhip > October 3rd - 5th

    Norwich is my team :) Hope you laid off' date=' Blackburn letting you down :([/quote'] I didnt lay it (£500 worth). :cry Its fine though. I normally dont lay unless I am absolutely sure about the lay. I wasnt sure here and the price kept falling in my favor and I decided to ride it. You win some you lose some. Thanks anyways. Much appreciated.

    Sky Bet Championhip > October 3rd - 5th

    in Championship Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Sky Bet Championhip > October 3rd - 5th

    I would look at taking Rotherham on in some way tomorrow. We (Norwich) have struggled at home so far. We beat Watford 3-0' date=' but they had a man sent off after a few minutes. Also the goals we scored were all brilliant long rangers. Against Blackburn it took an Andy Johnson stunner a few minutes from the end, and are other results are Bournemouth 1-1, Birmingham 2-2 and Charlton 0-1. Hopefully we'll sort the home form out soon, but I think we'll have problems tomorrow.[/quote'] Can you please advise me on the BTTS market. I had placed an acca earlier in the week and blackburn/huddersfield BTTS-YES is the last leg. Normally, I would have laid the last leg if I was uncomfortable, but the thing is it seems the market has been steaming in on the yes and seems confident enough. The stats all point to BTTS as well. But would love to hear an opinion of someone who follows the team properly.

    Capital One Cup > September 23rd & 24th

    in Championship Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Capital One Cup > September 23rd & 24th #NFFC Starting XI: De Vries, Fox, Wilson©, Lascelles, Harding, McLaughlin, Vaughan, Grant, Osborn, Paterson, Veldwijk #NFFC Subs: Darlow, Collins, Halford, Blackstock, Tesche, Walker, O. Burke #THFC team: Vorm, Naughton, Fazio, Vertonghen, Davies; Bentaleb, Stambouli; Lennon ©, Paulinho, Townsend; Soldado. #THFC subs: Friedel, Chiriches, Dier, Mason, Lamela, Eriksen, Kane

    Capital One Cup > September 23rd & 24th

    in Championship Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Capital One Cup > September 23rd & 24th Still toto, Forest price is drifting and spurs price is shortening back to where it opened. I know I would have assombalonga as my striker any day over soldado or kane. And even though the spurs team is brimming with quality, Forest should not be as long as 5/1 with the form they are in and spurs are not. So why this drift? Is forest not going to play their strongest team? I have been checking news like mad but still found nothing there. Would appreciate it if someone who reads something, post here to let us know as well what the rumours are.

    Capital One Cup > September 23rd & 24th

    in Championship Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Capital One Cup > September 23rd & 24th

    Like Canaries said, the Norwich team was strong, but still looked more like eleven players thrown together to get a game, well done to all winners. Sheff Wed might be a good bet tonight. City have lots of people out, and Wednesday are a stubborn team away from home. If Wigan can win there in the latter stages of the FA Cup, so can Wednesday. Will wait for teams. Forest looks like a bit of a trap, imo. Tottenham's reserves will have more quality than Forest's team, and Stuart Pearce doesn't convince me yet. If this was a Premier League game Spurs would be sub 1.50, like they were against Albion. Another to wait for teams, I think.
    well spurs do play against arsenal in 2 days and market is expecting them to be very cautious with their main players. And Forest are in-form and at the summit of the championship. Besides its not the PL. Its a cup match where anything can happen.

    Capital One Cup > September 23rd & 24th

    in Championship Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Capital One Cup > September 23rd & 24th

    I don't usually like backing Boro but tonight I really fancy us to get through. We were available at 8/1 a couple of nights ago which I thought was almost a gift from above. I have gone in again at 11/2 this morning. Liverpool are a million miles away from the team they were last year and it's 100% guaranteed there will be plenty of changes to their team tonight with both eyes on Everton at the weekend. They are lacking confidence as it is and I feel they will find things very tough tonight against a Boro team that are growing in confidence by the week. We now have a squad to rival any in the Championship and we have 3 forwards in Kike' date=' Bamford and Vossen that are as good as any in the League. We made 6 changes to our team at the weekend and romped to victory against a good Brentford side. We will go to Anfield with absolutely no pressure on us whatsoever and I fancy us to go 2 up front and really take it to Liverpool and their fragile defence. I am confident of a Boro win in normal time... :ok UTB[/quote'] who do you think will start for borough upfront? kike and vossen I reckon
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