JusticePunting

CzechPunter · July 10, 2018

6 minutes ago, losingpunter said:

All win

Congrats - I was very surprised. This Wimbledon has been an awful tournament for me after a very positive last month, +25% ROI etc.

Wimbledon has just been one loss after another. There's been plenty of upsets but very few warning signs to me that the underdog was going to spring a surprise (with the exception of Gulbis, Bertens, Buzarnescu and Kasatkina but they all failed in the end in varying levels of disappointment). Going to take a break and be back in time for the Summer Masters tournaments...

CzechPunter · July 10, 2018

Kerber very impressive! Kasatkina massively talented but the UE count is far too high.

Kerber has been like a wall - serving for the match now and expect her to do it this time...

EDIT: entertaining match but very frustrating from a betting point of view. Kasatkina was immense in 60% of the points and errant in the others. Kerber was very solid. Great rallies between the two of them.

July 10, 2018

I think Kasatkina has a really golden opportunity to beat Kerber. She pushed her to a third set tie-break at Eastbourne and has only improved in form, confidence and experience on grass since then. Her victory against Van Uytvanck was particularly impressive as she was in a rich vein of form, dispatching several tricky players ahead of the match with Kasatkina including Muguruza, Hercog and Kontaveit. I just think 2.88 with Boylesport, SpreadEx etc. is too long for this match. Kerber also has a good shot of winning but I wouldn't give Kerber much more than 55% chance.

ElPrincipito007 · July 5, 2018

One for a couple of days time.

Ebden to beat Simon @ 1.86 (Boosted) with William Hill

Ebden leads the H2H 2-0 and won both as moderate outsider. He's been in a great form this grass season and Simon's not particularly been. On grass Ebden is operating at a high level and his attacking tennis should give him the edge over Simon this time.

liquidglass · July 4, 2018

4 hours ago, losingpunter said:

Istomin is a punk. had 2 set points in first set and was 40-15 up. tried to play some extravagant shots and show his class. I am glad such players don't go ahead. He cost me as well

No need to publicly berate any player who lets us down. If I did that, they'd be pages and pages of content for people to read through

Kyrgios is ridiculously tough on grass. He's an ace and TB machine. He's no pushover in rallies either. You get the feeling that he bides his time until the TB when he strikes. I also backed Istomin but Istomin was pretty powerless to be honest in those key moments. Kyrgios is operating at top 5 on grass in my opinion, or at worst top 10. He doesn't look like he cares at all, but I think that's deceptive and a bit of a trap!

July 3, 2018

Damir Dzumhur @ 1.53 with William Hill (vs. Gulbis)
3-0 Damir Dzumhur @ 3.36 with Marathon

Dzumhur beats Marterer in straights and off the back of a victory at Antalya. Gulbis struggled through against Clarke (who admittedly played well) however I believe there is a huge gulf in quality between the two players. Gulbis is still erratic at points and posted 43 unforced errors in his opener (vs. 53 winners) whereas Dzumhur had over double winners to unforced errors. I expect Damir to be creeping up to top 20/edge of top 10 in the near future.

A win with Dzumhur today, but Copil couldn't pull it off. I still hold that the match was close to a 50:50. Haase just stronger at the crucial times. Copil had multiple break points which he didn't take and got broken at really inopportune times (like closing in on 2nd set).

four-leaf · July 3, 2018

Philipp Kohlschreiber @ 1.65 with Marathon (vs. Muller)

Muller in terrible form. He finally won a match against Mmoh! Remember Mmoh lost in straight sets against John-Patrick Smith in qualifying so while Mmoh is talented I don't hold that up as a shining example of a win.

Kohlschreiber hasn't looked at his best but is generally the better player and leads the H2H 3-0. I see a decent amount of value in backing Kohli here. Muller is not the force he once was on grass and Kohli is fairly natural on grass. He was very off colour against Ebden in Halle but think he'll have had chance to prepare for Wimbledon and take this match.

Also - the Dzumhur one above was with Marathon.

four-leaf · July 3, 2018

Some good bets here. Really like Benneteau to win first set, Ebden, Kenin and Boulter (-1.5 sets) and had/have taken all of them.

I also like:

Marius Copil @ 2.76 with Marathon (vs. Haase)

I think Copil is playing at a similar level to Haase - see his 3 setter against Dzumhur who won Antalya. Haase has the serve but he's not a natural on grass. His W/L record is 22-35 (38%) while Copil's is 29-19 (60%). I think this is a 50:50 match so willing to back Copil here! Also don't forget that Copil beat Haase on indoor hard (only H2H) earlier this year so he's more than capable of beating Haase. It is very windy at SW19 (at least it was yesterday) so not sure how that will impact on this or any of the matches. It should disrupt servers a bit which will nullify the serve of both a bit, and I think Haase's ace count has saved him throughout grass season at multiple points.

I did also get Chardy @ 1.76, odds have shortened to 1.68. Think he should be pretty big favourite there. He's on a really good run and has only lost to Gasquet and Djokovic this grass season. Shapovalov has been in pretty terrible form and I really doubt his ability to get things done here.

Damir Dzumhur (-1.5 sets) @ 2.47 (vs. Marterer)

Mannarino was fine against the in-form Garin so I don't think Dzumhur will struggle here because of the travel. I think Dzumhur is playing at a very high level and beats Marterer in four or less sets.

yogg · July 1, 2018

1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

Match practice is what a player needs, not off the court preparations a month before a grand slam. Of course Filip has been preparing for this grand slam but why didn't he play any grass matches in Netherlands, England, Germany or Turkey? If he's got no fitness problems I wonder why he skipped the hole preparation for this grand slam. All the doubts surrounding Filip coupled with his bad stats on grass, particularly in SW19 makes me pick Nicolas to win comfortably.

I take your point and followed as Unibet offering 1.83 on the line. I do think its value - I thought you had good rationale. Just expressing some of my experiences when backing players who have returned from injury - they tend to perform a strong first match but struggle to pull a series of matches together. Let's hope Filip is (primarily) here for the payout.

yogg · July 1, 2018

2 hours ago, yogg said:

Federer R. - Lajovic D.

The week before last at Halle, just before playing Coric, 3 or 4 members here were questioning Federer's fitness but no one was bold enough to tip Coric unfortunately (won @ 6.00)

And out of those same members not one of them thought Federer could win Wimbledon, I hope they're right!

Minimum stakes for me: Lajovic to beat Federer @ 23.00 with Bet365 (as short as 11.00 with some bookies)

Minimum stakes again: Lajovic e.w. to win SW19 @ 1001.00 (50% payout to reach the final)

Yes that is one thousand to one with Bet365 & BetVictor

Good luck all

Some crazies are laying Lajovic @ 34 on Smarkets. Loaded up to trade in play as think this will be close.

1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

Roger Federer/Dusan Lajovic over 29.5 games at 1.94 with Pinnaclesports

No brainer here, I can see Dusan able to hold serve enough to push the games over the total of 29. Last season he met Fed in SW19 and then it was 30 games. I think Dusan will be good enough for at least that to happen again. Not mutch different match image expected with high probability of at least one tie-break or 7-5 set.

Nicolas Jarry (-1.5 sets) to beat Filip Krajinovic at 1.72 with Paddypower

Filip doesn't have the greatest record in SW19 as he's only played in maindraw once in 2015 when he lost in 4 against another Nicolas with surname Mahut. His only win has been in qualifying 2014 when he beat Mate Delic in 2. Now he also hasn't played since march in Miami and Nicolas already has warmed up for this. Accidentally Nicolas happens to be ranked exactly the same as the other Nicolas was ranked when Filip was beaten by him in 2015. Nicolas warmed up by playing one match in Eastbourne and was the only player to take a set off Mischa Zverev as he won the first set in that match. Nicolas playing pretty good on grass after all even though he likes clay the most. He qualified for SW19 last season beating Dennis Novikov in last quali round in 4. Filip also likes clay the most and not faster surfaces but the reason why he went far in Paris masters last season was because Paris is a slower hardcourt. I think Filip only comes to collect the check and we'll see him on clay soon.

I like the Fed/Lajovic bet, I think Lajovic will make this difficult for Fed.

Re: Jarry - it does make me nervous backing against players who have not played much. You may be right but Krajinovic could have been spending a month preparing for Wimbledon. I always seem to get defeated by this speculative bets when I've not seen someone play recently.

June 28, 2018

Yeah, the difference between yesterday and today is incredibly stark. 91% points won on first serve (versus the mediocre stats I posted).

There's nothing you can do when a player executes like that. Let's just learn from this and move forward!

yogg · June 27, 2018

Adrian Mannarino @ 1.71 with Marathon (vs. Sousa)

I really don't understand the pricing here. Mannarino surely massive value and favourite. He's a losing finalist here from last year and is actually decentish on grass, whereas Sousa has no pedigree and beat Basic in the last round who is similar. I think fairly decent stakes on this one.

Sousa saved 15/18 break point opportunities against Basic and won about 60% on service versus 72% of points by Mannarino against Berankis (who's in reasonably good form in the last few months).

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez @ 2.75 with William Hill (vs. Monfils)

Monfils spent a month off after the French and stuttered his way to an unimpressive victory over Kavcic. Only 65% of points on first serve and 31% on second serve. On the other hand GGL was 77% on 1st and 68% on SS (so more than Monfils on his first).

Garcia-Lopez is on good form and I would price him at 2.2-2.3, even if we account for Monfils turning up which he might do. This is especially true given the 4-3 H2H in favour of Monfils - this is not a case of a strong favourite scoring another regular victory.

I'm even playing GGL in straights @ 4.75 on WH as stats from Monfils today were pretty mediocre.

EDIT: better odds on Marathon now @ 2.76.

June 27, 2018

24 minutes ago, yogg said:

you certainly are four-leaf, well done.

I've had a couple of busy days but enjoyed reading everyone's tips when I could

I don't understand Murray being the favourite to beat Kyle. Kyrgios easily beat Andy despite what the scoreline says but Kyle would have beat Kyrgios but for the 32 aces against him, incredible. Kyle certainly won't wont to lose this match! If Andy loses nobody would have expected him to win!

Edmund to beat Murray @ 2.60 with BetVictor

What do you reckon guys?

I think Kyle is being sold a little short now. I got Murray @ 1.89 on Marathon when odds were first released, and likely to cash out ahead of or during the match. I'd price Kyle @ 2.45 to be honest. Andy has a lot of quality but I see this as a tough match.

In other news, Copil saved so many break points and Dzumhur throwing in a weak game in the first set and losing. I really hope he pulls it together as he has a great chance still!

June 27, 2018

Garcia-Lopez just went on the attack (with the grass) after losing second set. Perfectly summed up my mood, should have had this wrapped up in straights!

UPDATE: Haase's second serve win % is very low, however he's saved a lot of break points. In set 2 he only won 40% of second serve points but 93% (25/27) of first serves. GGL had three BP opportunities but failed to convert. Third set might depend on Haase's first serve %. Both are playing pretty well to be honest. Match is turning into a crazy one, GGL keeps getting half chances in games but Haase keeps on saving them. I fear we'll see a GGL implosion at some point.

FINAL UPDATE: no implosion, a pretty smooth 7-2 TB win. Big win there so very happy with that. Well done four-leaf, a big couple of days for you.

June 27, 2018

5 minutes ago, losingpunter said:

look she was injured. she is not a bad player. maybe she upsets couple of seeded players in wimbeldon

She's an amazing player and agree that she'll be dangerous at Wimbledon!

June 27, 2018

1 minute ago, four-leaf said:

Why aren't you going for any bets yourself today? You're probably missing out on lots of money to be made. For example Jelena Ostapenko just won easily 2-0.

It was a great call - I was also on this line after considering for a while. I've been on the Buzarnescu hype train recently but really thought this was her time to exit. Her match yesterday was pretty crazy in a bad way (long three setter which was incredibly emotional from reports). Thought your write-up perfectly encapsulated my thoughts too.

June 27, 2018

42 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Kvitova pulls out. FFS.

Thanks for the heads up - it's confirmed on the official Eastbourne website. Shame that it came to this!

EDIT: I do understand trying to protect herself ahead of Wimbledon, however occasionally it's hard not to feel cynical about something like this when Radwanska clearly had the game to challenge and beat Kvitova here. Sometimes players will play and beat those they think they have a great chance against, but then will pull out when they could lose.

ElPrincipito007 · June 27, 2018

Agnieszka Radwanska @ 4 with Betvictor (or higher with exchanges) (vs. Kvitova)

Seems like value here, Radwanska won't make it easy for Kvitova and that means that Kvitova may take the opportunity to bow out before Wimbledon so she can go ahead and try to win the whole thing!

Let's not forget that Radwanska has been recovering nicely this year, beating Halep in Miami, but also scoring two wins against top 40 players at Eastbourne. Babos (6-3 6-1) and Gavrilova (5-7 7-6 6-0). Kvitova is a whole other level to those two but there were enough warnings in the Bondarenko match that I give Radwanska a really solid chance of scoring an upset here, especially as Kvitova is tired.

In her own words:

"Obviously, I'm a little bit tired, but I got a hit this morning before the match, a warm-up. The whole tournament [in Birmingham] was more relaxed for me from my side. It was great that I hopefully will save some energy for the next weeks. I felt good with the body, so that's important."

erny86 · June 27, 2018

Matthias Bachinger @ 2.1 with PaddyPower (vs. Novak)

Bachinger is on a bit of a golden run, beating Evans, Polmans, Istomin and Pospisil this grass season. Really should be stronger favourite here in my eyes. Novak did beat Young (which I predicted) but took three sets to do it. Young is in pretty weak form so I don't see that as much of an achievement! Bachinger could do this easily so I see real value in backing him as underdog with Paddy Power which is out of line with the rest of the market anyway. I put Bachinger's chances at around 60%.

June 26, 2018

1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to beat Robin Haase at 2.20 with bet365

No reason to have GG-Lopez as underdog here, he performs well nowadays again and has a better grass court record than Robin historically with 26 wins and 29 losses. He reached the Eastbourne final 8 years ago beating some good players along the way and no shame in losing to fast court specialist Michael Llodra in that final. He's beaten Robin 5 years ago in 3 sets in Auckland and this is again a very winable match-up for him.

Brilliant - I was going to post this tip just now!

Needless to say, I’m on this one. I thought Haase was pretty poor against Youzhny although 17/18 aces saved him. Garcia-Lopez is actually okay on grass and should have the advantage in rallies so I give him 50-55% chance of winning this.

CzechPunter · June 26, 2018

Damir Dzumhur @ 1.96 with Marathon (vs. Copil)

I like this one - Dzumhur has few matches on grass however has actually had some decent wins historically (Kudla and Istomin who were both better than Copil). Also worth pointing out that Dzumhur has generally been in good form and is at a career high ranking of 29.

It's good news that he's playing another warm-up match on grass, he pushed Dimitrov very close at Queens and he'll take heart from this. Copil has had a win against Sugita this grass season however losses against Millman, in particular, cast doubt over his form against someone inside the top 30. Willing to give this a go!

four-leaf · June 26, 2018

20 hours ago, JusticePunting said:

Hubert Hurkacz @ 2.37 with William Hill (vs. Opelka) - WON

Dennis Novak @ 1.98 with Marathon (vs. Young) - WON

Kamil Majchrzak +3 Games @ 1.99 with Marathon (vs. Kokkinakis) - LOSS

Two wins and a loss - I'll take that even though I'm disappointed over how slowly Majchrzak started the match. By the end of the second set he was taking Kokkinakis to deuce on return regularly.

Well done to others who made good calls!

ElPrincipito007 · June 26, 2018

2 hours ago, ElPrincipito007 said:

Kuznetsova @2,65 (Pinnacle)

Mertens isn't playing well on grass. On the other hand you have Kuznetsova who has the experience and has decent results on grass. Odds are really too high here for Svetlana I think. This is a bet against Mertens who I don't trust at this surface.

Think this is a great call, expect Mertens to struggle at points and really make this a tight match rather than one player (Mertens) having a great advantage over the other.

4 minutes ago, yogg said:

Collins D. R. - Suarez Navarro C.

a great chance for Suarez Navarro to kick start some grass form against Collins who's serve was rubbish against wild card Katie Swan who'm she just managed to scrape past.

Lajovic D. - Basilashvili N.

I must confess Lajovic is my favourite ATP player right now (Kyle a close second) capable, imo, of beating anyone right now. I was pleased he decided to take a months rest and thought he might struggle a bit against Horansky. No need to worry as he cruised thru'. Should win this.

Lajovic and Suarez Navarro Double @ 2.65 with Betfair

I was looking at Lajovic vs. Basilashvili and couldn't decide whether it was value or not. Basilashvili leads H2H 2-0 and has been playing some warm-up tournaments on grass. His losses have come against Sugita, Kudla and Coric who are all in decentish form and pretty good on grass, and netted some sensible wins too. I do think Lajovic is the rightful favourite in this match however!

Factors in favour are generally that Lajovic has been operating at a high level in last 6 months, plus he had a really decent (but short) grass season last year beating Chardy and Tsitsipas, and running Isner very close. Finally he went out to Fed which we can forgive him for!

CzechPunter · June 25, 2018

I've got a few bets from round 2 of Wimbledon qualifying tomorrow. Will give them a go and fingers crossed.

Hubert Hurkacz @ 2.37 with William Hill (vs. Opelka)

Hurkacz has had two good matches on grass this year, beating De Schepper in the first round and a decent effort prior to Wimbledon against Majchrzak. He's at a record high rank and off the high of winning Poznan, a clay tournament, and coming through the French Open decently eventually falling to Cilic. He's clearly playing some of the best tennis of his life.

The other thing to note is that Opelka beat an opponent with a 1-7 grass record (all-time) in three sets in round 1. Also he prioritised clay in recent months and has had no build-up grass events. Based on the above I really think Hurkacz should start this as favourite with the bookies.

Dennis Novak @ 1.98 with Marathon (vs. Young)

Young is in truly awful form in the last 12 months (and 2-8 W-L in last 10). Novak had an impressive R1 victory in a match I was expecting him to lose. I think these are good odds given Novak's decent record on grass so far and his improving ranking. Novak has taken a set off every opponent he's faced on grass to date plus has a decent record against left handers (12-7 overall).

Note: Young has had some good grass victories a number of years ago so that's a word of caution however think these odds are fully justified, would give Novak a 55-60% chance of winning based on respective forms.

Kamil Majchrzak +3 Games @ 1.99 with Marathon (vs. Kokkinakis)

Majchrzak has a chance here to win the thing but I like his chances of covering the game handicap.

Kokkinakis really has been struggling with some losses as favourite recently. We all know he has talent but Majchrzak should be odds on favourite to cover handicap as there could be a couple of tie-breaks in this match. I'm not reading too much into the first round qualifying matches but Majchrzak won 6-2 6-0 (against a player who had never played on grass) whereas Kokkinakis had a tight three setter.

yogg · June 25, 2018

2 hours ago, hzertin said:

you don't take these folk seriously do ya?...I enjoy reading their crazy conclusions then watch them get done lol...….they as a collective only get around 20% correct.....that is 1 every 5 lol......hardly a winning strategy.....take for instance four-leaf above......berrettini is getting schooled bigtime by an aged warrior and the 6 foot 4 boy can't even serve lol......

Brilliant that you thought you had to point out that 20% is 1 in 5. Also this would go down better if you ever contributed anything positive to these threads, instead you seem to hang around like a bad smell revelling in other people's misery.

Losingpunter called Murray exactly correct, I was also on this line. Made a lot of sense given Murray's comeback versus Kyrgios who was playing very well himself. Kyrgios is tough to beat on grass having only lost to Federer and Cilic this season. Also Wawrinka was hardly in great shape himself and 0-2 against Murray on grass.

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Posts posted by JusticePunting

Damir Dzumhur @ 1.53 with William Hill (vs. Gulbis) 3-0 Damir Dzumhur @ 3.36 with Marathon