[Lodge's Thread]

Re: Lodge's Thread I must admit tomorrows racing is rather uninspiring, i do have one selection however: 4.00 - Huntingdon - Mission To Mars 1pt @ 10/1 Bet365 I thought Mission To Mars showed enough in his 2 most recent runs to warrant respect off an opening mark of 108. The 5yo ran in a warm novice hurdle on his penultimate start and although he was ultimately well beaten in 8th the form is very strong. The winner was Wilde Blue Yonder who is fancied by some for the Supreme, and in behind him were useful novices like Seedling, Tiqris and Sign Of Victory so its no wonder he didn't get close to them. Nto he ran to a similar level, getting within 9L of the mid 130's rated chaser Anay Turge and the only other runner to beat him was the 122 rated Vivacchio of Venetia Williams. As i've mentioned he's been allotted a mark of 108, which on the basis of his 2 most recent runs probably looks fair. He's open to improvement and the extra furlong tomorrow will only probably play to his strenghs i feel. It'll be interesting to see how he's ridden, he's made the running in his starts so far and he could certainly make it a test if he did so tomorrow. He'll handle the ground and at 10/1 he looks the value in the field to me.

[Lodge's Thread]

Re: Lodge's Thread

3.30 - Doncaster - Real Milan 1pt @ 11/1 Paddypower One other selection stands out for me tomorrow and thats Real Milan, i backed him last time when he was a 9L 2nd to the well handicapped Rose Of The Moon. He was entered in a race a few weeks ago but was taken out quite late due to the going becoming Heavy so the fact he ran so well against Rose Of The Moon last time in Soft-Heavy ground is certainly a positive. He made an encouraging seasonal return at this course over 3m where he was 4th, shaping as if he needed the run when weakening late on. He was fairly useful Novice last season running in races like the Reynoldstown at Ascot and the the RSA at Cheltenham so i'm sure his stable rate him higher than a high 120's handicapper. He's been dropped 2lb since his last run which is another bonus and the best of his form makes his look very well treated, the fact he was well backed last time and before being withdrawn earlier this month also suggests that. As i've mentioned already he obviously doesn't want the ground too testing so the fact its good at Doncaster today is another positive sign. Brian Harding rides as Jason Maguire has a good book or rides over at Kelso for the yard, he has a great record on chasers. All in all i expect a big run off a nice weight, and 11/1 is a fair price considering he's single figure odds with all other firms.

First selection tomorrow: 4.00 - Lingfield - Addictive Dream 1pt @ 11/1 BetVictor Cracking sprint handicap with many of these running in the same race last weekend won by Even Stevens. I do however feel Addictive Dream is the one to be on this week, despite finishing behind Even Stevens, Silken Express and Ubetterbegood. He certainly didn’t get the run of the race, having to be restrained early after not being able to get a prominent position, this led to him having to come extremely wide and conceding a lot of ground to most of his rivals. He was only beaten a couple of lengths but has a swing in the weights with the 3 ahead of him and i’d expect him to have every chance of reversing the form. He's well drawn on the inside, which gives him the opportunity to get a good early position. He likes the course and won here back in November over 6f, following that up with a C&D 2nd off this mark behind the useful Forest Edge. In fairness Ubetterbegood suffered a similar fate last time so i considered him too. Having been left too much to do from a long way back he should go well also at a fair price, i just have a slight preference for Addictive Dream who at 11/1 looks worth chancing.

Real Milan didn't ever look like he was travelling that well and was abit disappointing really. Addictive Dream bolted up and was quite impressive considering the depth in the race. 10p rule 4 on the 11/1 meant he paid out just under 10/1. :nana Need to keep the form up to pay for Cheltenham :lol Staked: 129pts Returned: 236.72ts P/L: +107.72pts

[Lodge's Thread]

Re: Lodge's Thread Record During February: Staked: 48pts Returned: 83ts P/L: +35pts Been in profit all 3 months so far, despite having my longest losing run in Feb (13) :)

[BBOTD Saturday 1st March]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 1st March 4.00 - Lingfield - Addictive Dream 1pt @ 11/1 BetVictor Cracking sprint handicap with many of these running in the same race last weekend won by Even Stevens. I do however feel Addictive Dream is the one to be on this week, despite finishing behind Even Stevens, Silken Express and Ubetterbegood. He certainly didn’t get the run of the race, having to be restrained early after not being able to get a prominent position, this led to him having to come extremely wide and conceding a lot of ground to most of his rivals. He was only beaten a couple of lengths but has a swing in the weights with the 3 ahead of him and i’d expect him to have every chance of reversing the form. He's well drawn on the inside, which gives him the opportunity to get a good early position. He likes the course and won here back in November over 6f, following that up with a C&D 2nd off this mark behind the useful Forest Edge. In fairness Ubetterbegood suffered a similar fate last time so i considered him too. Having been left too much to do from a long way back he should go well also at a fair price, i just have a slight preference for Addictive Dream who at 11/1 looks worth chancing.

[BBOTD Saturday 1st March]

:ok

[Lodge's Thread]

Re: Lodge's Thread 3.30 - Doncaster - Real Milan 1pt @ 11/1 Paddypower One other selection stands out for me tomorrow and thats Real Milan, i backed him last time when he was a 9L 2nd to the well handicapped Rose Of The Moon. He was entered in a race a few weeks ago but was taken out quite late due to the going becoming Heavy so the fact he ran so well against Rose Of The Moon last time in Soft-Heavy ground is certainly a positive. He made an encouraging seasonal return at this course over 3m where he was 4th, shaping as if he needed the run when weakening late on. He was fairly useful Novice last season running in races like the Reynoldstown at Ascot and the the RSA at Cheltenham so i'm sure his stable rate him higher than a high 120's handicapper. He's been dropped 2lb since his last run which is another bonus and the best of his form makes his look very well treated, the fact he was well backed last time and before being withdrawn earlier this month also suggests that. As i've mentioned already he obviously doesn't want the ground too testing so the fact its good at Doncaster today is another positive sign. Brian Harding rides as Jason Maguire has a good book or rides over at Kelso for the yard, he has a great record on chasers. All in all i expect a big run off a nice weight, and 11/1 is a fair price considering he's single figure odds with all other firms.

[Lodge's Thread]

Re: Lodge's Thread First selection tomorrow: 4.00 - Lingfield - Addictive Dream 1pt @ 11/1 BetVictor Cracking sprint handicap with many of these running in the same race last weekend won by Even Stevens. I do however feel Addictive Dream is the one to be on this week, despite finishing behind Even Stevens, Silken Express and Ubetterbegood. He certainly didn’t get the run of the race, having to be restrained early after not being able to get a prominent position, this led to him having to come extremely wide and conceding a lot of ground to most of his rivals. He was only beaten a couple of lengths but has a swing in the weights with the 3 ahead of him and i’d expect him to have every chance of reversing the form. He's well drawn on the inside, which gives him the opportunity to get a good early position. He likes the course and won here back in November over 6f, following that up with a C&D 2nd off this mark behind the useful Forest Edge. In fairness Ubetterbegood suffered a similar fate last time so i considered him too. Having been left too much to do from a long way back he should go well also at a fair price, i just have a slight preference for Addictive Dream who at 11/1 looks worth chancing.

[Lodge's Thread]

Re: Lodge's Thread

3.00 - Lingfield - Dawn Catcher @ 8/1 Paddypower Only the one of interest tomorrow and its Dawn Catcher in the sprint handicap at Lingfield. He was certainly an eye catcher in a similar race last time out, he looked to be ready to make a big challenge before being stuck behind a wall of horses and never getting a run. That was his first run for 3 months and you'd expect him to strip abit fitter tomorrow. He was beaten less than 1L off a 4lb higher mark in September so looks feasibly handicapped and is still fairly unexposed having only had 8 career runs. The horse that was caught up with him lto ran very well the other day and i expect him to run well tomorrow too. Was 11's earlier but still don't think 8's looks bad value.

Shocker! Race was dominated by the horses that came from off the pace. Front 3 (which included mine) for the first few furlongs finished 6th, 7th and 9th. Staked: 127pts Returned: 225.82ts P/L: +98.82pts

[BBOTD > Friday February 28th]

Re: BBOTD > Friday February 28th Putting my selections in this thread seem to bring me bad luck at the moment! 3.00 - Lingfield - Dawn Catcher @ 8/1 Paddypower My selection for today is Dawn Catcher in the sprint handicap at Lingfield. He was certainly an eye catcher in a similar race last time out, he looked to be ready to make a big challenge before being stuck behind a wall of horses and never getting a run. If you haven't seen the race its worth a watch as he'd have certainly gone fairly close had he had a clear run. That was his first run for 3 months and you'd expect him to strip abit fitter tomorrow. He looks feasibly handicapped to me, having been beaten less than 1L off a 4lb higher mark in Septembe, and is still fairly unexposed having only had 8 career runs so should still have some improvement. The horse that was caught up with him in traffic lto ran very well the other day and i expect him to go well tomorrow too. Richard Kingscote takes over from Jimmy Quinn and he seems to have had a good month with plenty of winner.

[Lodge's Thread]

Re: Lodge's Thread 3.00 - Lingfield - Dawn Catcher @ 8/1 Paddypower Only the one of interest tomorrow and its Dawn Catcher in the sprint handicap at Lingfield. He was certainly an eye catcher in a similar race last time out, he looked to be ready to make a big challenge before being stuck behind a wall of horses and never getting a run. That was his first run for 3 months and you'd expect him to strip abit fitter tomorrow. He was beaten less than 1L off a 4lb higher mark in September so looks feasibly handicapped and is still fairly unexposed having only had 8 career runs. The horse that was caught up with him lto ran very well the other day and i expect him to run well tomorrow too. Was 11's earlier but still don't think 8's looks bad value.

[Lodge's Thread]

Re: Lodge's Thread

4.00 - Ludlow - Spencer Lea 1pt @ 7/1 Bet365 This race looks a really competitive affair and you can make a very strong case for most of these. Garrahallish was the one i was initially drawn to. I saw him at Towcester when he was 3rd in a decent novice hurdle at 100/1. He backed that up by winning nto but i just have a slight doubt as to whether this is his best trip. He certainly needs further than 2m based on his effort last time out but 2m 5f in testing ground could just prove a little bit fair in my opinion, and he does have to give a lot of weight away. The one i have gone for is Spencer Lea, who's been alloted a mark of 109 after some reasonable efforts in novice hurdles. I thought his run behind the useful looking Classic Move was a solid effort despite some sketchy jumping. He stayed on to beat Theatrebar who has since gone close off marks of 114 and 120 in handicaps, plus the winner scored by 23 lengths next time. He then ran at Kempton over the extended 3 miles, he was beaten 40 odd lengths and i think it was just a case that he didn't get the trip, he still had every chance 3 out before weakening so the step back by half a mile will certainly help tomorrow. Richard Johnson takes over in the saddle from a claimer, he handles testing ground and this trip promises to suit better than last time. I expect him to run well...

I have only had time to go through the AW cards for tomorrow. Nothing really shouts value but i have got one selection: 6.30 - Kempton - Abigails Angel - 1pt @ 8/1 Paddypower Not my usual type of selection really, as i'm not totally convinced this is a great price but this race won't take much winning and the fact the bookies have been cautious with their prices could suggest she'll run okay. Abigails Angel is looking very well handicapped at the minute, she hasn't won for a while and has now dropped 17lb below her last winning mark. You don't have to look too far back to see some form that would make her very hard to beat though. She ran very well off a mark of 69 in September and shaped better than the bare result over C&D in November off a mark of 70, so off 55 tomorrow and in much weaker company she should have claims. She's run in sellers mainly of late, not being beaten far by horses officially rated much better than her either The claimer that has been aboard is replaced by Adam Kirby tomorrow and she also has a first time visor. I can probably read too much into jockey bookings sometimes but i really like the fact that Kirby is on board for a number of reasons, firstly he is 1 from 3 for the yard in the last 12 months, he doesn't ride for them often but when he does it has a chance. Secondly he's rode the horse a number of times before in the distant past, including winning aboard her twice and a further 4 places. And thirdly because he's probably had the choice of this one and Mr Chocolate Drop who he has ridden twice recently and also looks to have a good chance. All in all this looks an all or nothing selection and the market will probably give plenty of clues to her chances. I'll take the risk this evening that a big run is on the cards, the only other firms to price up have gone 11/2 or 5/1 so 8's could prove big.

Very late posting this evening as i've been stuck at Watford for the last 3 hours due to some idiot throwing themselves in front of a train. Pleased to report of a winner today though. Spencer Lea wins at an SP of 7/2, opening mark proved very lenient. Bit disappointed with Abigails Angel however, she was last despite being an 11/4 favourite. Rather surprised Fleetwoodsands won that race too. He was crap when i backed him last time, usual tongue tie left off and he drifted before the off... Profit creeping up to the 100pt mark :clap Staked: 126pts Returned: 225.82ts P/L: +99.82pts

[Lodge's Thread]

Re: Lodge's Thread 4.00 - Ludlow - Spencer Lea 1pt @ 7/1 Bet365 This race looks a really competitive affair and you can make a very strong case for most of these. Garrahallish was the one i was initially drawn to. I saw him at Towcester when he was 3rd in a decent novice hurdle at 100/1. He backed that up by winning nto but i just have a slight doubt as to whether this is his best trip. He certainly needs further than 2m based on his effort last time out but 2m 5f in testing ground could just prove a little bit fair in my opinion, and he does have to give a lot of weight away. The one i have gone for is Spencer Lea, who's been alloted a mark of 109 after some reasonable efforts in novice hurdles. I thought his run behind the useful looking Classic Move was a solid effort despite some sketchy jumping. He stayed on to beat Theatrebar who has since gone close off marks of 114 and 120 in handicaps, plus the winner scored by 23 lengths next time. He then ran at Kempton over the extended 3 miles, he was beaten 40 odd lengths and i think it was just a case that he didn't get the trip, he still had every chance 3 out before weakening so the step back by half a mile will certainly help tomorrow. Richard Johnson takes over in the saddle from a claimer, he handles testing ground and this trip promises to suit better than last time. I expect him to run well...

[Lodge's Thread]

Re: Lodge's Thread

First selection for tomorrow, will do my usual round up after Duly Acclaimed runs... 3.30 - Bangor - Monetary Fund 1pt @ 3/1 BetVictor I was keen on Monetary Fund last time and although he fell, he was still going well and tomorrows race represents a much easier task than he has been used to. He’s been competing some of the most competitive 3m handicaps this season so this class 3, 6 runner race must represent a good opportunity to the 8yo. On the best of his form he looks well in off a mark of 127, having beaten by a head in a better race last year off a mark of 130. He hasn’t won for a while but while Venetia Williams can do no wrong i think he’s worth a bet despite the relatively short price. He’s been well backed in his most recent starts and i expect this to be the case tomorrow too, i personally think he's as likely as any to win.

8.20 - Kempton - First Class 1pt @ 14/1 Bet365 First Class is probably worth another try at 1m and if he does see out the extra furlong i expect him to go very close. I thought his run last time was a suggestion that his turn may be near. He was 4th only beaten a length or so and was finishing strongly. He ran similarly the time before too, although not finishing quite so close. It could just be a case of him passing beaten horses but i feel the way he has finished his last 2 races suggest the return to 1m could suit. He seems to like Kempton having won here 3 times from 9 runs, and also takes the drop down to a class 6 race for the first time in over 6 months which could well favour him too. The form of his last run looks rock solid, the winner has gone in again off his revised mark and the only other horse to have run since has won too (Khajaaly). I think he’ll need a patient ride to get the trip anyway so i don’t see why the wide draw is massive problem, he has won here over 7f from stall 7 and 9. And at 14/1 he is worthy of a small interest.

Disappointing day. Monetary Fund travelled well enough for a long way but went out like a light. There wasn't much money around for him today which did give me the feeling he wasn't going to win. First Class ran eel though, there was a bit of money about for him going off at 8/1. He got a good ride but probably didn't see out the 1m trip as well as i had hoped. He'll win a class 6 race over 7f soon enough though and will remain in my notebook. I have just been going throughout the NH cards for tomorrow and may have a selection to add to the one posted above... Staked: 124pts Returned: 217.82ts P/L: +93.82pts

[Lodge's Thread]

Re: Lodge's Thread I have only had time to go through the AW cards for tomorrow. Nothing really shouts value but i have got one selection: 6.30 - Kempton - Abigails Angel - 1pt @ 8/1 Paddypower Not my usual type of selection really, as i'm not totally convinced this is a great price but this race won't take much winning and the fact the bookies have been cautious with their prices could suggest she'll run okay. Abigails Angel is looking very well handicapped at the minute, she hasn't won for a while and has now dropped 17lb below her last winning mark. You don't have to look too far back to see some form that would make her very hard to beat though. She ran very well off a mark of 69 in September and shaped better than the bare result over C&D in November off a mark of 70, so off 55 tomorrow and in much weaker company she should have claims. She's run in sellers mainly of late, not being beaten far by horses officially rated much better than her either The claimer that has been aboard is replaced by Adam Kirby tomorrow and she also has a first time visor. I can probably read too much into jockey bookings sometimes but i really like the fact that Kirby is on board for a number of reasons, firstly he is 1 from 3 for the yard in the last 12 months, he doesn't ride for them often but when he does it has a chance. Secondly he's rode the horse a number of times before in the distant past, including winning aboard her twice and a further 4 places. And thirdly because he's probably had the choice of this one and Mr Chocolate Drop who he has ridden twice recently and also looks to have a good chance. All in all this looks an all or nothing selection and the market will probably give plenty of clues to her chances. I'll take the risk this evening that a big run is on the cards, the only other firms to price up have gone 11/2 or 5/1 so 8's could prove big.

[Friday 1:30 > Triumph Hurdle]

Re: Friday 1:30 > Triumph Hurdle

Nice post Lodge. Although Activial is with Harry Fry I think. I was really impressed by the way he quickened at Kempton because he looked a little one paced at Newbury. He travles well, he jumps slickly and we now know he quickens. I suspect he prefers a deeper surface but if it is on the soft side he is one to keep an eye on because I suspect there is a lot more to come.

Course he is :wall

[Tuesday 3:20 > Champion Hurdle]

Re: Tuesday 3:20 > Champion Hurdle I really like The New One, my concern is his jumping at the business end of a race. I've been watching his replays from this season and that mistake at the last in the Christmas hurdle just sticks in my head. The time before he was cruising against Zarkander and he nearly gave him a chance before his class saw him through. If he does that in the CH he doesn't win, simple as that imo. I think it'll be a no bet race for me and i'll just cheer on TNO

[Ultimate Warrior, 14:30 Lingfield]

Re: Ultimate Warrior, 14:30 Lingfield No real reasoning on the BHA site, all it says is that he was reported as 'never travelling' (http://www.britishhorseracing.com/resources/about/whatwedo/disciplinary/whyranbadly.asp) Its worth noting he was beaten 18L and 24L on 2 of his previous 4 starts. Clearly not straightforward...

[Lodge's Thread]

Re: Lodge's Thread

Nice winner Lodge. :ok

That claimer made all the diff' date='nice winner:)[/quote'] Thanks, guys was a much needed winner! Need to top up that bank before Cheltenham!

[Friday 1:30 > Triumph Hurdle]

Re: Friday 1:30 > Triumph Hurdle All these posts in the Cheltenham threads are getting me excited! despite the disappointing news over the past couple of days. I'm the first to admit i am usually useless at ante post betting, i have had 2 ante post bets in the past couple of weeks for the festival so thought i'd share them on here: Triumph Hurdle - Broughton 1pt @ 14/1 Various I have backed Broughton in the Triumph hurdle, i made a selection in this race as i feel the market is yet to fully shape itself and therefore believe he could prove value on the day. This looks a very open race with the favouritism currently shared between Calipto and Le Rocher at around 6/1. Calipto beat a decent field on his UK debut and then followed up in very smart fashion in a weaker race, that debut win probably looks the strongest form on offer in my opinion and he is a worthy favourite. Le Rocher has also won his 2 UK runs, beating a decent yardstick in Kentucky Hyden on debut, and then winning the trial race in January by 10L, again beating Kentucky Hyden and a disappointing Vincenzo Moi. Both his starts have come on heavy ground, if it is very testing come the festival it would certainly enhance his chances, if the ground went the other way and dries out will he prove as good? From the Irish contingency, Guitar Pete looks their most likely contender, he's best priced at 10's and has won his 2 most recent starts in Ireland, beating some decent sorts like Ivan Grozny and Plinth last time. He was beaten over C&D (good ground) prior to that though by Royal Irish Hussar who has been poor since. Is this a hint that he may not prove as good at Cheltenham as he is in Ireland, or perhaps that he also prefers testing ground? Next in the market is Activial of Harry Fry, he chased home the favourite Calipto on his debut (beaten 3-4L) then won a grade 2 at Kempton. I think he'd certainly have to improve to win this on that form but i wouldn't rule him out, i'd still prefer Calipto though even at the prices, plus 17f at Cheltenham is a very different test than 2m at Kempton... My selection is Broughton, he's currently a 14/1 shot. The former Mark Johnston inmate looked very useful on the flat last season, if inconsistent at times, he managed 3 wins and was rated in the high 90's. He's since joined John Ferguson and ran in a very strong race on hurdling debut. He went down by the narrowest of margins to Fox Norton who is clearly very smart, the pair pulled 15L clear of Royal Irish Hussar that day. On a side note - Fox Norton was in this race but has been taken out - not sure of the reasoning? Anyway that looked a very pleasing debut in my opinion, particularly as his jumping was very sketchy at times. He then ran in the Scottish Triumph hurdle trial at Musselburgh which he won with the minimum of fuss. His jumping was slicker, he hit the front 2 out and O'Regan barely had to shake him up for him to extend on from Clarcam. A line of form through the Gordon Elliot trained runner puts him closely matched on form with Guitar Pete too. This race looks to be his target, you'll see in the quotes i've added below that Ferguson has considered going for the supreme with him if he feels the ground will be better. Personally i can't see that happening, and the fact he's considered for that race suggests how highly his trainer rates him. I think that i'm right in saying that John Ferguson has never had a winner at Cheltenham let alone at the Festival, despite his string of useful horses he doesn't have that many big race winners considering his strike rate, i'm sure a lot of this is down to the testing ground, which doesn't suit the flat bred types he usually has in his yard. I'm hoping the ground comes up good/ good to soft come the festival which will certainly suit a horse like Broughton. If it was heavy i would hold very little hope of him winning. A few quotes i've found regarding him: O'Regan after most recent run: "I was delighted with him. I wasn't sure if the trip would suit, because I think he would prefer a more galloping track. I think if he'd jumped a bit better up the straight at Doncaster he might have won, but he has come on a lot since then. "You can only beat what's in front of you and we have to hope he is going the right way. On better ground, he could be effective. He's got a great attitude and he could be one of the best four-year-olds we've got. I don't know where we go now. John Ferguson knows more about things like that than I do, so we'll have to see." Ferguson said: "He's a nice horse who has come along quietly through the winter. He'd been pleasing us at home and I was very pleased with him on Sunday. "His Doncaster run was obviously a very good performance for his hurdling debut and it was nice to see he learnt from it, as his jumping was much slicker at Musselburgh. "If he can continue to improve, hopefully he can be competitive at a higher level and Cheltenham would be the idea at the moment." "I don't think I need to run him again between now and Cheltenham and the Triumph Hurdle is his main target, but I've also put him in the Supreme," said Ferguson. "The thinking behind that is I think he will thrive on good ground and if come Cheltenham week it was good ground on the Tuesday and it looked like it was going to rain for the next three days, I might be tempted to let him run in the Supreme." I'm on at 14's with BetVictor NRFB so if he does pull out because of the ground i'll have a free bet. He's only 14's with firms not offering that now but i still think he's worth a bet at the odds. If the ground is reasonable and he lines up on the day i'd expect him to be a single figure price...

[BBOTD Wednesday 26th February]

3.30 - Bangor - Monetary Fund 1pt @ 3/1 BetVictor I was keen on Monetary Fund last time and although he fell, he was still going well and tomorrows race represents a much easier task than he has been used to. He’s been competing some of the most competitive 3m handicaps this season so this class 3, 6 runner race must represent a good opportunity to the 8yo. On the best of his form he looks well in off a mark of 127, having beaten by a head in a better race last year off a mark of 130. He hasn’t won for a while but while Venetia Williams can do no wrong i think he’s worth a bet despite the relatively short price. He’s been well backed in his most recent starts and i expect this to be the case tomorrow too.

[Lodge's Thread]

Re: Lodge's Thread 8.20 - Kempton - First Class 1pt @ 14/1 Bet365 First Class is probably worth another try at 1m and if he does see out the extra furlong i expect him to go very close. I thought his run last time was a suggestion that his turn may be near. He was 4th only beaten a length or so and was finishing strongly. He ran similarly the time before too, although not finishing quite so close. It could just be a case of him passing beaten horses but i feel the way he has finished his last 2 races suggest the return to 1m could suit. He seems to like Kempton having won here 3 times from 9 runs, and also takes the drop down to a class 6 race for the first time in over 6 months which could well favour him too. The form of his last run looks rock solid, the winner has gone in again off his revised mark and the only other horse to have run since has won too (Khajaaly). I think he’ll need a patient ride to get the trip anyway so i don’t see why the wide draw is massive problem, he has won here over 7f from stall 7 and 9. And at 14/1 he is worthy of a small interest.

[Lodge's Thread]

Re: Lodge's Thread

4.40 - Leicester - Carpincho 1pt @ 11/1 Bet365 Carpincho folded tamely last time but i'm not convinced he has the stamina for 3m+ on testing ground so the fact he takes a marked drop in trip is a big positive in my opinion. In his previous run he travelled like an absolute dream before finding very little and finishing 3rd. It was his first run for over 200 days though so theres a good chance he could have needed the run. That run came over tomorrows distance of 2m 4f and was also off a 7lb higher mark than he runs off tomorrow. He hasn't won a handicap but did win as a novice chaser twice including on soft ground and is well in on his form from a season or so back. This doesn't look the strongest contest, most of these are of class 5 quality and his last race was 2 grades higher than that so the drop in grade may also do him some good. Richard Johnson rides and his record for this yard is worth taking note of. He's had 7 rides, with 3 winners and 2 places.

5.00 - Lingfield - Duly Acclaimed 1pt @ 8/1 Bet365 I'm rather surprised by the price of Duly Acclaimed. When you look at this race its rather hard to make a case for the bottom 3 in the handicap, who will all need to step up quite abit to win this race. Plus theres Ventura Reef who's been beaten by 9+ lengths in all 3 maiden starts yet is a 7/2 shot simply on his yard. Stan Moore's filly looks value to me at around 8/1. i didn't think she ran too badly off this mark on handicap debut last week, travelling well out wide, one of the last off the bridle but not quite having the turn of food to go with the front few. She takes a fairly big step up in trip tomorrow and the way she shaped last time suggests it could well suit. She started life in 1m maidens which hints she has some stamina and her sire has a 15% strike rate at this distance on the AW. The fact she has been turned out quickly is also a suggestion she could run well this race lacks depth so with a 5lb claimer aboad to ease the weight burden i expect her to go well. The short price favourite has a cracking chance but i'll take him on here with Duly Acclaimed who looks a big price in a weak 6 runner race.

Well, all i am going to say is thank god Duly Acclaimed stuck his neck out and took that there as i was abit annoyed with the previous race :lol Carpincho was a well backed favourite, going off at 10/3 :eek he ran a really good race but was no match for Lord Landon who seems to have found about 25lbs from when i saw him at Towcester late last year, he was even beaten 20L over C&D recently so don't know where that has come from. As mentioned Duly Acclaimed wins at 11/4 by the smallest of margins :clap 2 non runners but no rule 4 on the 8/1 so that certainly proved a good price. 1 selection already up for tomorrow, just waiting for a price on another... I seem to have messed up my P/L in the last few days, here a correct update: Staked: 122pts Returned: 217.82ts P/L: +95.82pts

[Lodge's Thread]

Re: Lodge's Thread First selection for tomorrow, will do my usual round up after Duly Acclaimed runs... 3.30 - Bangor - Monetary Fund 1pt @ 3/1 BetVictor I was keen on Monetary Fund last time and although he fell, he was still going well and tomorrows race represents a much easier task than he has been used to. He’s been competing some of the most competitive 3m handicaps this season so this class 3, 6 runner race must represent a good opportunity to the 8yo. On the best of his form he looks well in off a mark of 127, having beaten by a head in a better race last year off a mark of 130. He hasn’t won for a while but while Venetia Williams can do no wrong i think he’s worth a bet despite the relatively short price. He’s been well backed in his most recent starts and i expect this to be the case tomorrow too, i personally think he's as likely as any to win.

[stupid question]

Re: stupid question No worries, they used to be up fairly quick (around half an hour after the race) but seem to be taking a day or so at the minute, or atleast for the races I look at.

[stupid question]

Re: stupid question Sometimes takes a while for that part of the results to be updated. There usually put up eventually...