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Lodge

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    Lodge's Thread

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Lodge's Thread

    4.00 - Cheltenham - Berties Dream 1pt @ 16/1 Bet365 What a puzzle this is to solve! I think its a really open race and it may pay to look outside the first 3 in the betting. Berties Dream looks an interesting contender and has been abit of a festival regular over the past few years. The 11yo has been a top class hurdler in years gone by and won on the Friday of the festival back in 2010 when taking the Albert Bartlett. He was back the following year to take on the likes of Big Bucks in the world hurdle and was a creditable 6th. He was back yet again last year and outran his odds in the Pertemps when 5th to Holywell. Cheltenham form is obviously a big plus, so thats definitely one thing in his favour albeit over hurdles. He hasn’t quite proved as good over fences, but comes into this off the back of 2 easy point wins. He’ll like the ground, and has plenty of stamina for the trip. Gina Andrews has been booked to ride, having a good jockey in this race is extremely important and i’ve been impressed with what i have seen of her. Overall i think he’s a live outsider and at 16/1 i’ll have a little play.
    Never really got into it i'm afraid and was beaten a long way out. As much as i love watching Cheltenham its not my idea of a punters paradise lol Back to the AW tomorrow i think... Staked: 148pts Returned: 252.72ts P/L: +104.72pts

    Friday 4:40 > Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Friday 4:40 > Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle I think i've seen it all this week so i'm going to go with an outsider in this: Shantou Magic @ 50/1 I’m still in search of a nice big price winner and i’m quite surprised by the price of Shantou Magic. To me he has looked a really useful novice this season and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him go close today. He showed good form in his only bumper start and took to hurdles instantly winning a reasonable 22f novice event by 9L and was quite impressive (had Neptune 7th Cole Harden in behind). He then followed up under a penalty in similar fashion which led to him being upped in class by Charlie Longsdon. He ran in the Challow hurdle at Newbery, where he was 4th. He travelled very well for a long way but couldn’t quite go with Timesremembered (6th in Coral Cup off 143) and Captain Cutter in the final 2 furlongs, i thought it was a good effort though, especially considering how testing the ground was and the level of opposition. He was then pitched into handicap company off a mark of 138. He was sent off a 10/3 favourite and again travelled very well, holding every chance 2 out. It was a similar story to his last run though as he weakened late on, particularly after the last and finished 4th. He was giving 18lb to the winner in that race and atleast 11lb to every other runner so he probably deserves more credit than the bare result, as again it was in desperate conditions. One thing i feel may be in his favour today is the better ground, his jockey kept him out wide last time in search of slightly better ground, and the conditions for his 2 novice wins were on a fairly sound surface. His strong travelling style will help in this big field handicap likely to be run at a decent pace, and providing he sees out the trip fully i expect him to go well. His trainer definitely holds him in high regard, he has also said since his last run that his handicap debut may have come too soon after the Challow so the 43 day break should have freshened him up. He’s been dropped 1lb for his last run and Kielan Woods takes off 3lb so he’s off a nice low weight in this field and he is certainly open to improvement. All in all i’m happy to have a small interest at about 50/1.

    Friday 2:05 > County Handicap Hurdle

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Friday 2:05 > County Handicap Hurdle

    hmmmm ........not a race I like but ill have a bash at anything .... lac Fontana 83 cheltenian 81 alavain 79 typically open race ..........you can stick a pin in sometimes but lac Fontana rating is here at chelt and that's good enuf for me ........course form always good and improving type and capable of better .........cheltian also has sound chances and Richard Johnson is in the winners so can run well and alaivain will need to improve but has put a fast time in and gets in off bottom weight so that's a powerful combination in a big race like this ...........prices allow all 3 so may as well have tag team and hope big price goes in lac Fontana 2pts win 12/1 paddypower alavain 2pts win 14/1 paddypower cheltian 2pts win 9/1 paddypower
    Bloody hell Rich, let someone else have a go at finding a winner! :ok

    Friday 3:20 > Cheltenham Gold Cup

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Friday 3:20 > Cheltenham Gold Cup I really don't fancy anything in this race. You can't knock Bob's Worth, i just don't see the point in backing him at 13/8 or whatever he is, for all he'll probably win. I love Silviniaco Conti, backed him in the King George but the form of the Nicholls horses this week must be a big worry and i'll avoid him for that reason alone, even though i'd like to see him win. The fact they've been undecided about whether running Last Instalment on the ground puts me off straight away. Did show good form last time though... Then theres Triolo D'Alene, would have to improve a lot to win this but was impressive winner of the Hennessey on good ground. Not been seen since which would be a slight worry and this could be abit of an after-thought as the Grand National looked to be main target. No Cheltenham form but does at least have McCoy in the saddle. I personally don't think any of the others are good enough, unless one of them can find 15lb+ from somewhere... I reckon i'd have probably chanced my arm with Triolo if he was 25/1 or something. Corals do go 9/1 without Bob's Worth so maybe i'll take that for abit of interest

    Friday 2:05 > County Handicap Hurdle

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Friday 2:05 > County Handicap Hurdle The 2 that interested me were Alavain (16/1) and Montbazon (25/1): Alavain was only beaten by 2L in this race in 2011 off a mark of 144 so he should run well off a mark of 132 with a good 5lb claimer aboard. He's shown signs that he's coming into form of late, finishing 2nd in a handicap to Quick Decission in January and then he was 6th in the Betfair Hurdle, staying on from a long way back. Ran well both times he's been to Cheltenham and won't mind the ground. Montbazon is a bit of a shot in the dark. 4th in the 2011 running of the Supreme only beaten a length or so and his form prior to that had been very strong. Been off for 2 years when making his reappearance in the Betfair, travelled up quite nicely but never got going in the straight and was well beat. That was on ground he would have hated though and he did shape as if retaining ability. Today he could be a different proposition, freshened up by the run and on good ground. Again he also likes Cheltenham and King horses running much better now.

    Lodge's Thread

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Lodge's Thread

    Great winner lodge' date='keep them coming,had best cheltham ever,lead king of tipsters sportinglife by 300 points so hopefully pick up the free £100 bet of sky,already picked £20 up and had over 10 winners with western warhorse my best,only bet small but up a grand,but follow ur thead as a given :)[/quote'] Good to hear mate. Any tips for tomorrow? :lol Glad i've not got too involved with Cheltenham this week, i find it abit tougher than the AW lol

    Lodge's Thread

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Lodge's Thread 4.00 - Cheltenham - Berties Dream 1pt @ 16/1 Bet365 What a puzzle this is to solve! I think its a really open race and it may pay to look outside the first 3 in the betting. Berties Dream looks an interesting contender and has been abit of a festival regular over the past few years. The 11yo has been a top class hurdler in years gone by and won on the Friday of the festival back in 2010 when taking the Albert Bartlett. He was back the following year to take on the likes of Big Bucks in the world hurdle and was a creditable 6th. He was back yet again last year and outran his odds in the Pertemps when 5th to Holywell. Cheltenham form is obviously a big plus, so thats definitely one thing in his favour albeit over hurdles. He hasn’t quite proved as good over fences, but comes into this off the back of 2 easy point wins. He’ll like the ground, and has plenty of stamina for the trip. Gina Andrews has been booked to ride, having a good jockey in this race is extremely important and i’ve been impressed with what i have seen of her. Overall i think he’s a live outsider and at 16/1 i’ll have a little play.

    Friday 1:30 > Triumph Hurdle

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Friday 1:30 > Triumph Hurdle I've been on Broughton a few weeks now (see my above post) and while i've got a good price about him i can't help but notice how poor Fergusons horses generally run at Cheltenham, its abit of a worry for me. I thought a couple of his might outrun their odds on the better ground this week but it hasn't been the case.

    Lodge's Thread

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Lodge's Thread

    Looking further a field from Cheltenham tomorrow: 5.35 - Towcester - Fidelor - 1pt @ 5/1 Bet365 I thought Fidelor might run abit better than he did last time at Towcester. He's shown bits and pieces of ability for Alex Hales this season and i though the application of blinkers and drop back to 2m might suit him but it wasn't the case. Tomorrows he is back up in trip and pitched into an ever weaker race and i reckon he has a decent chance. He could also be of more interest because he's back on a sounder surface, his only win came of gd/soft and one of his only other placed runs was also on good ground. His handicap mark is now down below 90 and for him that is a career low, having been placed off marks as high as 105 in the past. He wears a first time tongue tie and that could also aid him as his only win came wearing first time cheekpieces. The 2 Anthony Middleton runners look rather short to me but it does atleast mean that Fidelor is a fair price at 5/1.
    What a cracking ride from Killiam Moore there! looked beat but never gave up... Fidelor gets up by a very small margin :ok wasn't overly confident though as he was weak in the market today. Staked: 147pts Returned: 252.72ts P/L: +105.72pts

    Thursday 4:40 > Kim Muir Challenge Cup

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Thursday 4:40 > Kim Muir Challenge Cup

    Spring Heeled 16/1 & Night Alliance 33/1 EW You have to excuse both of these their last run and providing they are in good health I could certainly see them outrunning their odds tomorrow. Spring Heeled was running a big race at Cheltenham in November when he looked to run out of legs 2 from home as whilst he didnt jump as well as his name suggests he should, he had come with a really strong run down the wide outside and looked a huge danger. The form of that race has worked out quite well and looking back through his Irish form, he was only narrowly denied in the Munster National by a highly progressive sort. Its clear from his profile that he is a much better horse on good ground and I get the feeling this race has been the plan for a while. I definitely wouldnt say he is the best jumper in the field and it may catch him out but I think he has everything else in his favour and I wouldnt be surprise to see him gambled a little tomorrow. Night Alliance is a quirky sort, who also isnt the grandest of jumpers. He has some really in and out form but if he is at his best, I think he could really destroy this field because he looks like he is firmly on the upgrade and having already won around Cheltenham I feel he is more than capable of outrunning such large odds. Trip, ground and class are all fine. Of the rest, Indian Castle could be a good thing given connections but he hasnt got the depth of form I would like to see. He has bundles of potential and could be a good thing but he is also priced up as one too. Similar sentiments apply to Cause of Causes as well. Twirling Magnet is another odd character, Buddy Bolero seems best on a softer surface, Theres No Panic would ideally prefer further and I get the feeling Balnaslow wont find a great deal off the bridle up the hill.
    :clap

    Lodge's Thread

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Lodge's Thread Looking further a field from Cheltenham tomorrow: 5.35 - Towcester - Fidelor - 1pt @ 5/1 Bet365 I thought Fidelor might run abit better than he did last time at Towcester. He's shown bits and pieces of ability for Alex Hales this season and i though the application of blinkers and drop back to 2m might suit him but it wasn't the case. Tomorrows he is back up in trip and pitched into an ever weaker race and i reckon he has a decent chance. He could also be of more interest because he's back on a sounder surface, his only win came of gd/soft and one of his only other placed runs was also on good ground. His handicap mark is now down below 90 and for him that is a career low, having been placed off marks as high as 105 in the past. He wears a first time tongue tie and that could also aid him as his only win came wearing first time cheekpieces. The 2 Anthony Middleton runners look rather short to me but it does atleast mean that Fidelor is a fair price at 5/1.

    Lodge's Thread

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Lodge's Thread

    1.30 - Cheltenham - Lieutenant Colonel 1pt @ 14/1 Coral I was quietly pleased with the impressive performance of Vatour and the creditable run of Wicklow Brave today as there form ties in closely with Lieutenant Colonel who i fancy for the Neptune. The 5yo has clearly been taking on some of the best novices over 2m so his form behind the 2 mentioned above reads very well. He steps up to 2m 4f which appears as if it may suit, as he doesn’t quite have the turn of foot to be a top 2 miler but keeps on really well. I don’t think he’s a ground dependant horse and at around 14/1 he looks quite a big price in my opinion. The main danger in my mind is Faugheen and the way the Mullins horses ran today it would not surprise me if he hoses up, i'm just tempted to take him on at the prices though. 5.15 - Cheltenham - Our Kaempfer 1pt @ 33/1 BetVictor I’m quite keen on one of the outsiders in the bumper and that is Our Kaempfer. He could only manage to finish 3rd in his last start, which came over C&D but when you take into account that one of the horses that beat him was Red Sherlock he deserves more respect than his price probably gives him. He was only beaten 1L or so and the other horse just ahead was Carningli who won his first 2 bumpers and is also pretty useful, the trio were clear of the rest. To me that is really smart form, Red Sherlock is unbeaten in 6 starts and goes off 2nd fav in the Neptune tomorrow. The way he stayed on up the hill was quite impressive in my opinion and its certainly a positive to know he will cope with the course which is an unknown for most. I feel the better ground tomorrow will be absolutely perfect for him (won his first bumper on good/firm ground) and at 33/1 looks very big despite him not fitting many of the trends. Charlie Longsdon’s 5yo hasn’t been seen for quite a while, he was entered in a listed bumper last month but didn’t run on account of the ground i believe. For what its worth Longsdon is also quoted as saying 'he’ll improve a stone from the November run’ and he seems fairly sweet on his chances. Noel Fehily rides which is also a big plus and i feel this one could surprise a few.
    And thats why i don't get too involved with Cheltenham :lol Both ran very well for a long way then faded out of it, not had any bets for tomorrow yet, considering my options... Staked: 146pts Returned: 246.72ts P/L: +100.72pts

    Wednesday 4:00 > Cross Country Handicap Chase

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Wednesday 4:00 > Cross Country Handicap Chase Had a small play on Diamond Harry @ 25/1. Won a Hennesey off 156 back in 2010 and gets into this of 133. Decent re-appearance in when 4th over C&D beaten 10L by Balthazar King in November, did slip on the bend about 3 out and has a swing in the weights with that rival so there is the possibility of reversing the places. In process of running good race in North Yorkshire national last time, and would have been atleast 2nd had he not fell. Likes Cheltenham, wears first time tongue tie and looks overpriced to me...

    Wednesday 2:05 > RSA Chase

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Wednesday 2:05 > RSA Chase I'd love to see Gevrey Chambertin run to his full potential. I thought he jumped really well on his chase debut, he obviously found absolutely nothing off the home turn, but Tom Scu pulled him up immediately as if something was up rather than he just wasn't good enough. I see he wears a tongue tie tomorrow and that could hint at the type of issue he had? I'm not saying he's going to win this but Pipe wouldn't run him for the sake of it. Besides it wouldn't be the first time one of his novice chasers wins with first time headgear at a big price would it?

    BBOTD > Wednesday March 12th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: BBOTD > Wednesday March 12th 1.30 - Cheltenham - Lieutenant Colonel 1pt @ 14/1 Coral I was quietly pleased with the impressive performance of Vatour and the creditable run of Wicklow Brave today as their form ties in closely with Lieutenant Colonel who i fancy for the Neptune. The 5yo has clearly been taking on some of the best novices over 2m so his form behind the 2 mentioned above reads very well. He steps up to 2m 4f which appears as if it may suit, as he doesn’t quite have the turn of foot to be a top 2 miler but keeps on really well. I don’t think he’s a ground dependant horse and at around 14/1 he looks quite a big price in my opinion. The main danger in my mind is Faugheen and the way the Mullins horses ran today it would not surprise me if he hoses up, i'm just tempted to take him on at the prices though.

    Up,Down,Level

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Up,Down,Level There was some absolutely brilliant tipping on the forum today, although i can't say i expected any less! Quiet days betting for me, my 2 selections for the day both lost (Highland Retreat and Buthlezi) although i had a free bet on Midnight Prayer which won @ 8/1 and even though i wasn't planning betting on the Champion Hurdle, i took Corals offer of evens on MTOY to be placed, only accepted £20 but thought it paid for a bet tomorrow!

    Lodge's Thread

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Lodge's Thread 1.30 - Cheltenham - Lieutenant Colonel 1pt @ 14/1 Coral I was quietly pleased with the impressive performance of Vatour and the creditable run of Wicklow Brave today as there form ties in closely with Lieutenant Colonel who i fancy for the Neptune. The 5yo has clearly been taking on some of the best novices over 2m so his form behind the 2 mentioned above reads very well. He steps up to 2m 4f which appears as if it may suit, as he doesn’t quite have the turn of foot to be a top 2 miler but keeps on really well. I don’t think he’s a ground dependant horse and at around 14/1 he looks quite a big price in my opinion. The main danger in my mind is Faugheen and the way the Mullins horses ran today it would not surprise me if he hoses up, i'm just tempted to take him on at the prices though. 5.15 - Cheltenham - Our Kaempfer 1pt @ 33/1 BetVictor I’m quite keen on one of the outsiders in the bumper and that is Our Kaempfer. He could only manage to finish 3rd in his last start, which came over C&D but when you take into account that one of the horses that beat him was Red Sherlock he deserves more respect than his price probably gives him. He was only beaten 1L or so and the other horse just ahead was Carningli who won his first 2 bumpers and is also pretty useful, the trio were clear of the rest. To me that is really smart form, Red Sherlock is unbeaten in 6 starts and goes off 2nd fav in the Neptune tomorrow. The way he stayed on up the hill was quite impressive in my opinion and its certainly a positive to know he will cope with the course which is an unknown for most. I feel the better ground tomorrow will be absolutely perfect for him (won his first bumper on good/firm ground) and at 33/1 looks very big despite him not fitting many of the trends. Charlie Longsdon’s 5yo hasn’t been seen for quite a while, he was entered in a listed bumper last month but didn’t run on account of the ground i believe. For what its worth Longsdon is also quoted as saying 'he’ll improve a stone from the November run’ and he seems fairly sweet on his chances. Noel Fehily rides which is also a big plus and i feel this one could surprise a few.

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