Lodge
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Re: Lodge's Thread Cracking run from Ma Filleule there, slight form boost for Highland Retreat who beat her over hurdles earlier this season.
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Re: Tuesday 1:30 > Supreme Novices Hurdle I can't help but think Western Boy looks value @ 25/1. He got within less than a length of Vatour last time who is 3/1, Vatour probably won with a little in hand at the line but i see no reason why he wouldn't go close against him again. His jumping would need to improve but his last run was only his 2nd start and I also get the feeling the slightly better ground would suit him. His trainer has given him a short break since, saying that he wants to come into this fresh. This isn't a betting race for me really but thought i'd have something for a bit of interest with the PP offer.
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Re: Friday 4:00 > Foxhunter Chase Great write up, very informative. The one that stands out to me at the prices is Bertie's Dream, i quite like the Cheltenham/big race experience angle. I know very little about points but understand his comeback 3rd was on testing ground which probably didn't suit him? Plus Gina Andrews is positive in the saddle I must admit i'm rather surprised at the price of Pearlysteps, i backed him when i was at Towcester in January and he didn't really strike me as a Cheltenham winner either. I'd be surprised if he was good enough if i'm honest...
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Re: BBOTD ''Comp'' Tuesday 11th March 2014 ----Its Time 4.00 - Cheltenham - Highland Retreat 1pt @ 16/1 BetFred Maybe i'm silly taking on Quevega, but i think this race is filled with potential improvers that could run her very close. I've gone with Highland Retreat who really impressed me last time out. The 7yo is unbeaten this season and while the form of her first 2 wins this season wouldn't strike me as the type of form needed to win a race of this kind, theres no knocking her most recent win. She travelled ever so strongly over 3m at Ascot getting some really top horses in trouble a long way home. She was pushed very hard down the straight by Carole's Spirit though and battled very gamely to win by 2L and was well on top at the finish. In behind that day were Mickie, Prima Porta and Utopie Des Bordes who are all very useful performers in their own right and wouldn't look out of place in this field at all. In fact Prima Porta got very close to the Cockey Sparrow earlier this season. She drops back in trip slightly tomorrow and fact she stays further is definately a positive in my opinion, you clearly need stamina to win this race, which puts me off Cockney Sparrow slightly. I like the fact she's had a short break since, her race last time would have taken quite abit out of her so the fact she comes in fresh is a big positive. Noel Fehily rides and i'm a massive fan of his, hopefully he has a good week.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Thanks, mine was credited in seconds :ok
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Re: Tuesday 4:00 > David Nicholson Mares Hurdle 4.00 - Cheltenham - Highland Retreat 1pt @ 16/1 BetFred (Money back as Free bet if Quevega wins) Maybe i'm silly taking on Quevega, but i think this race is filled with potential improvers that could run her very close. I've gone with Highland Retreat who really impressed me last time out. The 7yo is unbeaten this season and while the form of her first 2 wins this season wouldn't strike me as the type of form needed to win a race of this kind, theres no knocking her most recent win. She travelled ever so strongly over 3m at Ascot getting some really top horses in trouble a long way home. She was pushed very hard down the straight by Carole's Spirit though and battled very gamely to win by 2L and was well on top at the finish. In behind that day were Mickie, Prima Porta and Utopie Des Bordes who are all very useful performers in their own right and wouldn't look out of place in this field at all. In fact Prima Porta got very close to the Cockey Sparrow earlier this season. She drops back in trip slightly tomorrow and fact she stays further is definately a positive in my opinion, you clearly need stamina to win this race, which puts me off Cockney Sparrow slightly. I like the fact she's had a short break since, her race last time would have taken quite abit out of her so the fact she comes in fresh is a big positive. Noel Fehily rides and i'm a massive fan of his, hopefully he has a good week.
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Re: Lodge's Thread 4.00 - Cheltenham - Highland Retreat 1pt @ 16/1 BetFred (Money back as Free bet if Quevega wins) Maybe i'm silly taking on Quevega, but i think this race is filled with potential improvers that could run her very close. I've gone with Highland Retreat who really impressed me last time out. The 7yo is unbeaten this season and while the form of her first 2 wins this season wouldn't strike me as the type of form needed to win a race of this kind, theres no knocking her most recent win. She travelled ever so strongly over 3m at Ascot getting some really top horses in trouble a long way home. She was pushed very hard down the straight by Carole's Spirit though and battled very gamely to win by 2L and was well on top at the finish. In behind that day were Mickie, Prima Porta and Utopie Des Bordes who are all very useful performers in their own right and wouldn't look out of place in this field at all. In fact Prima Porta got very close to the Cockey Sparrow earlier this season. She drops back in trip slightly tomorrow and fact she stays further is definately a positive in my opinion, you clearly need stamina to win this race, which puts me off Cockney Sparrow slightly. I like the fact she's had a short break since, her race last time would have taken quite abit out of her so the fact she comes in fresh is a big positive. Noel Fehily rides and i'm a massive fan of his, hopefully he has a good week.
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Re: Lodge's Thread
What a load of rubbish :lol still better than Si Bien who was backed off the boards. Staked: 142pts Returned: 246.72ts P/L: +104.72pts1 bet for Cheltenham eve: 5.00 - Plumpton - Jaja De Jau 1pt @ 13/2 Paddypower Jaja De Jau probably looks value to overturn the form with Conusker from last time out. The 5yo mare was beaten by 15L back in 3rd but does have a 21lb swing in the weights tomorrow. It was her seasonal re-appearance and she travelled eye catchingly well under a patient ride from her conditional jockey. Turning for home she looked a big danger to the eventual winner trading at 2.6 in running however she failed to quicken and flattened out down the straight finishing 3rd. Considering it was her first run in 189 days and the ground was extremely testing it looked a fair effort though, and i certainly feel she'll improve for the better ground she encounters tomorrow. She was campaigned throughout last summer and ran some decent races including a close 2nd off this mark so this would also suggests she's prefer a sound surface. She's still a relatively unexposed 5yo so has some scope for improvement and is on a career low mark. The yard form would probably be the main worry. Although Anthony Honeyball did manage his first winner of the year today and it was ridden by tomorrows jockey Choc Thornton who replaces claimer Rachel Green, Choc's won on 3 of his last 4 rides so is in the winners at the moment himself. -
Re: Cheltenham Festival Competition ~ Day 1 Selections 1.30: Irving 2.05: Trifolium 2.40: Tour Des Champs 3.20: The New One 4.00: Highland Retreat 4.40: Midnight Prayer 5.15: Buthelezi
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Re: Lodge's Thread Cheltenham is nearly here :nana Surprisingly there is nothing that sticks out apart from this one. 5.15 - Cheltenham - Buthelezi 1pt @ 20/1 Boylesports Buthelezi's chase form is quite hard to analyse simply because he has ran in some very small fields, but i feel he could well be ahead of his mark. The 6yo gelding was a useful flat performer at his best running in the St. Ledger for John Gosden. I wasn't convinced by his hurdling last season but he looks to be a useful chaser in the making. His chase debut came in November at Warwick where he was a slightly disappointing 4th in a race won by Balder Succes. He certainly learned from the experience though, giving the useful Valco De Touzaine a very good race at Leicester next time out. He matched that form in a 3 runner handicap next time in what was effectively a match between him and Une Artiste, getting the better of the Nicky Henderson odds-on favourite by half a length but with a bit in hand. His jumping has been quite impressive in his most recent 2 starts something which bodes well for the testing fences at Cheltenham and tomorrows trip looks about spot on he won over 2m 4f last time out and ran over further when hurdling. He hasn't been seen since that Plumpton win, meaning he comes into this off a 99 day break. I wouldn't be too worried by that though, he's won off a 200+ day break twice before and its likely he has been waiting for some decent ground. Also its worth noting he is eligible for a £60,000 bonus if winning this race so John Ferguson could just have been protecting his handicap mark of 134 which looks fairly lenient to me. I placed the bet with Boylesports as their refunding bets if your horse finishes 2nd to a McCoy winner, in this race he rides Pendra and although i dont fancy him he is the current favourite.
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Re: Lodge's Thread Thanks guys, having a few hitting the crossbar at the minute. Don't mind if it means i find a few winners at Cheltenham! Interestingly Honeyball has a 24% strike rate at Plumpton which isn't a bad stat either, hopefully i'll get a decent run for my money tomorrow.
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Re: Lodge's Thread 1 bet for Cheltenham eve: 5.00 - Plumpton - Jaja De Jau 1pt @ 13/2 Paddypower Jaja De Jau probably looks value to overturn the form with Conusker from last time out. The 5yo mare was beaten by 15L back in 3rd but does have a 21lb swing in the weights tomorrow. It was her seasonal re-appearance and she travelled eye catchingly well under a patient ride from her conditional jockey. Turning for home she looked a big danger to the eventual winner trading at 2.6 in running however she failed to quicken and flattened out down the straight finishing 3rd. Considering it was her first run in 189 days and the ground was extremely testing it looked a fair effort though, and i certainly feel she'll improve for the better ground she encounters tomorrow. She was campaigned throughout last summer and ran some decent races including a close 2nd off this mark so this would also suggests she's prefer a sound surface. She's still a relatively unexposed 5yo so has some scope for improvement and is on a career low mark. The yard form would probably be the main worry. Although Anthony Honeyball did manage his first winner of the year today and it was ridden by tomorrows jockey Choc Thornton who replaces claimer Rachel Green, Choc's won on 3 of his last 4 rides so is in the winners at the moment himself.
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Re: Lodge's Thread
Game old effort from Squire Trelawney off the front end there, wasn't beaten far in about 5th. Still not quite good enough though!Selection for tomorrow: 2.20 - Warwick - Squire Trelawney 1pt @ 8/1 Bet365 I was relatively impressed with all 3 of Squire Trelawney' hurdle runs towards the end of last year. His reappearance run where he was only beaten a head over this trip at Towcester was very creditable effort, it certainly looked a competitive race and the form has worked out reasonably (3rd and 4th won handicaps next time out). He was put up 4lb for that effort but was deserving of the rise. He then went to Newbery for another large field handicap, he travelled really well, especially considering he was on the front end the whole way. He didnt quite quicken as well as his rivals and was about a 10L 5th in the end unable to make an impression on his rivals. He was quickly turned out again though, in a decent race at Aintree 9 days later. He probably wasn't good enough coming a 11L 4th but the form of that race looks strong. The winner Tantamount was a close 2nd off a 10lb higher mark next time, the 2nd Dundee has looked promising on 2 runs since for Alan King and the 3rd Keel Haul has won twice since including off a 9lb higher mark, so he was clearly up against some well handicapped rivals. He's had a 92 day break since, which probably isn't a bad thing considering he had 3 races in a month and the way he went fresh in November certainly increases the confidence. He's still unexposed too and is certainly open to an improvement, whether it is at this trip or in the sphere is yet to be seen. Tomorrows race looks marginally weaker than his last 2 assignments and although it might have been more encouraging to see him upped to 3m, i'd fancy his chances over this trip, particularly if they went a decent gallop.Staked: 141pts Returned: 246.72ts P/L:+105.72pts -
Re: Friday 1:30 > Triumph Hurdle Activial going to Aintree instead....
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Re: Lodge's Thread
3.15 - Sandown - Gassin Golf 1pt @ 12/1 Bet365 I've changed my mind on the Imperial Cup. I'm going to go with one from down the foot of the weights and Gassin Golf fits a lot of the trends for this race. He shaped very well last time in a similarly competitive handicap over 19f at Newbery and looked a likely winner at one point trading at 3.3 IR. He failed to see out the trip as well as Vendor and a couple of the others however and was beaten 10L. He steps back to the extended 2 mile trip today which looked an obvious decision based on his last run, i don't think he'd want the ground to be bottomless despite running well on testing ground in Ireland last year so the fact it appears to be drying is a bonus. His handicap mark of 121 certainly looks exploitable and it gives hims nice low weight for this race. Certainly open to plenty of improvement and i expect him to go well. I did also consider Harristown of Charlie Longsdon, i thought his victory last time reads pretty well. Hard to say how well treated he is though...
What a frustrating day! Gassin Golf ran a cracker @ 14/1 but was 2nd, would have got even closer had he not been cut up by the winner. And Master Neo was crap, finishing a well beat 4th. Every other horse i fancied today finished 2nd (Hasopop, Astrum and Westerly Breeze) so atleast i didn't blow my hard earned on them! Could do with a couple of winners before Tuesday... Staked: 140pts Returned: 246.72ts P/L: +106.72ptsI'm doing my nut in trying to find a selection tomorrow! Gone through all the cards created a shortlist of around 5 horses and only 1 is a backable price: 5.35 - Chepstow - Master Neo @ 9/1 Bet365 Master Neo was bitterly disappointing last time, he's a horse i've followed for a while and i really expected him to win. He fell however and was weakening badly a long way from home. It may beg the question why i'm going to back him again, but he's a big price in a race that looks weaker than his most recent assignments. I thought his final 2 runs last season were very promising, including in the Sussex National won by Well Refreshed. He was then extremely well backed on his seasonal re-appearance in December, running well but only managing 4th. With that run under his belt and off a mark slowly creeping down i expected him to go close last time, but as i mentioned he weakened quite a long way from home then fell. He drops back in trip slightly tomorrow which may help and the cheekpieces that he wore last time have also been discarded. He handles heavy ground, has an experienced conditional booked for the race and his mark is now 6lb lower than when placed at Ffos Las last season. That allows him into a reasonably weak race compared to what he has been competing in and i'm hoping that will see him even more competitive. Its also worth noting that his yard are in decent form, their last 2 runners have won, including Nail'm who was completing a quick fire double. -
Re: Lodge's Thread Selection for tomorrow: 2.20 - Warwick - Squire Trelawney 1pt @ 8/1 Bet365 I was relatively impressed with all 3 of Squire Trelawney' hurdle runs towards the end of last year. His reappearance run where he was only beaten a head over this trip at Towcester was very creditable effort, it certainly looked a competitive race and the form has worked out reasonably (3rd and 4th won handicaps next time out). He was put up 4lb for that effort but was deserving of the rise. He then went to Newbery for another large field handicap, he travelled really well, especially considering he was on the front end the whole way. He didnt quite quicken as well as his rivals and was about a 10L 5th in the end unable to make an impression on his rivals. He was quickly turned out again though, in a decent race at Aintree 9 days later. He probably wasn't good enough coming a 11L 4th but the form of that race looks strong. The winner Tantamount was a close 2nd off a 10lb higher mark next time, the 2nd Dundee has looked promising on 2 runs since for Alan King and the 3rd Keel Haul has won twice since including off a 9lb higher mark, so he was clearly up against some well handicapped rivals. He's had a 92 day break since, which probably isn't a bad thing considering he had 3 races in a month and the way he went fresh in November certainly increases the confidence. He's still unexposed too and is certainly open to an improvement, whether it is at this trip or in the sphere is yet to be seen. Tomorrows race looks marginally weaker than his last 2 assignments and although it might have been more encouraging to see him upped to 3m, i'd fancy his chances over this trip, particularly if they went a decent gallop.
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Re: National Hunt Racing > Saturday March 8th
Top pick :okSandown 2:05 - European Breeders' Fund William Hill 'national Hunt' Novices' Handicap Hurdle Final(Grade 3) (1) 2m4f The Philip Hobbs trained Horizontal Speed is likely to go well here, the 6 year old gelding has done nothing but improve this season and he has defied any penalty thrown at him so far. The yard are in good nick and with the talented Richard Johnson on board he should run a big race. I have always thought the David Pipe trained Doctor Harper is a horse that oozes class and if he brings his A-game here tomorrow everything else could be playing for second place. The value for me in the field though is Brave Vic who has caught the eye without winning on a few occasions and the overpriced Vice Et Vertu who if you can forgive his last run would be a lot shorter here. Brave Vic - 1 Point each-way @ 28/1 Sky Bet Vice Et Vertu - 1 Point each-way @ 40/1 Stan James Read Full Preview @ http://www.horse-racing.org/sandown-novice-handicap-brave-vic--vice-et-vertu-look-the-each-way-picks -
Re: BBOTD Saturday 8th (KO Cup today as well) 3.15 - Sandown - Gassin Golf 1pt @ 12/1 Bet365 I've changed my mind on the Imperial Cup. I'm going to go with one from down the foot of the weights and Gassin Golf fits a lot of the trends for this race. He shaped very well last time in a similarly competitive handicap over 19f at Newbery and looked a likely winner at one point trading at 3.3 IR. He failed to see out the trip as well as Vendor and a couple of the others however and was beaten 10L. He steps back to the extended 2 mile trip today which looked an obvious decision based on his last run, i don't think he'd want the ground to be bottomless despite running well on testing ground in Ireland last year so the fact it appears to be drying is a bonus. His handicap mark of 121 certainly looks exploitable and it gives hims nice low weight for this race. Certainly open to plenty of improvement and i expect him to go well. I did also consider Harristown of Charlie Longsdon, i thought his victory last time reads pretty well. Hard to say how well treated he is though...
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Re: imperial cup sandown saturday 8th march 3.15 - Sandown - Gassin Golf 1pt @ 12/1 Bet365 I've changed my mind on the Imperial Cup. I'm going to go with one from down the foot of the weights and Gassin Golf fits a lot of the trends for this race. He shaped very well last time in a similarly competitive handicap over 19f at Newbery and looked a likely winner at one point trading at 3.3 IR. He failed to see out the trip as well as Vendor and a couple of the others however and was beaten 10L. He steps back to the extended 2 mile trip today which looked an obvious decision based on his last run, i don't think he'd want the ground to be bottomless despite running well on testing ground in Ireland last year so the fact it appears to be drying is a bonus. His handicap mark of 121 certainly looks exploitable and it gives hims nice low weight for this race. Certainly open to plenty of improvement and i expect him to go well. I did also consider Harristown of Charlie Longsdon, i thought his victory last time reads pretty well. Hard to say how well treated he is though...
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Re: Lodge's Thread 3.15 - Sandown - Gassin Golf 1pt @ 12/1 Bet365 I've changed my mind on the Imperial Cup. I'm going to go with one from down the foot of the weights and Gassin Golf fits a lot of the trends for this race. He shaped very well last time in a similarly competitive handicap over 19f at Newbery and looked a likely winner at one point trading at 3.3 IR. He failed to see out the trip as well as Vendor and a couple of the others however and was beaten 10L. He steps back to the extended 2 mile trip today which looked an obvious decision based on his last run, i don't think he'd want the ground to be bottomless despite running well on testing ground in Ireland last year so the fact it appears to be drying is a bonus. His handicap mark of 121 certainly looks exploitable and it gives hims nice low weight for this race. Certainly open to plenty of improvement and i expect him to go well. I did also consider Harristown of Charlie Longsdon, i thought his victory last time reads pretty well. Hard to say how well treated he is though...
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Re: Lodge's Thread The rest of the horses on my shortlist for tomorrow were: 2.20 - Wolverhampton - Hasopop 1.30 - Sandown - Astrum 3.15 - Sandown - Swing Bowler 5.05 - Chepstow - Westerly Breeze Be interesting to see how they get on...
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Re: Lodge's Thread I'm doing my nut in trying to find a selection tomorrow! Gone through all the cards created a shortlist of around 5 horses and only 1 is a backable price: 5.35 - Chepstow - Master Neo @ 9/1 Bet365 Master Neo was bitterly disappointing last time, he's a horse i've followed for a while and i really expected him to win. He fell however and was weakening badly a long way from home. It may beg the question why i'm going to back him again, but he's a big price in a race that looks weaker than his most recent assignments. I thought his final 2 runs last season were very promising, including in the Sussex National won by Well Refreshed. He was then extremely well backed on his seasonal re-appearance in December, running well but only managing 4th. With that run under his belt and off a mark slowly creeping down i expected him to go close last time, but as i mentioned he weakened quite a long way from home then fell. He drops back in trip slightly tomorrow which may help and the cheekpieces that he wore last time have also been discarded. He handles heavy ground, has an experienced conditional booked for the race and his mark is now 6lb lower than when placed at Ffos Las last season. That allows him into a reasonably weak race compared to what he has been competing in and i'm hoping that will see him even more competitive. Its also worth noting that his yard are in decent form, their last 2 runners have won, including Nail'm who was completing a quick fire double.
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Re: Lodge's Thread
Blew the start and was slightly disappointing. Not 100% sure why Aspell thought he had to make up all that ground round the outside throughout the race. I think he could have been more patient and made his move later... Only selection i had shortlisted for tomorrow so far has opened too short. Will be back later with any selections. Staked: 138pts Returned: 246.72ts P/L: +108.72ptsTomorrows selections as posted above is: 7.00 - Wolverhampton - Moves Like Jagger 1pt @ 6/1 Bet365 I'm going to keep the write up short, mainly because i can't get onto the ATR site. I thought Moves Like Jagger's handicap debut was quite promising and if building on that he should certainly be bang there tomorrow. Firstly its worth pointing out that his last race looks a stronger contest than he competes tomorrow, it was a class 6 contest, and the 2nd placed horses has won since and the horse just ahead of him in 4th went very close in 2nd last week. Moves Like Jagger was 5th (beaten 2L), and certainly improved for the switch to a handicap. Off a basement mark he travelled well, trading fairly low in running considering his double figure BSP but didn't quite see the race out that well. I think thats why he's been dropped back to the 'shorter' 9f at Wolverhampton tomorrow. He runs off the same mark and now in class 7 company i expect him to go very close. Paddy Aspell rides, he's got a good record for the yard and has a 28% strike rate this year. All in all i felt his opening price of 6/1 didn't look bad considering his unexposed nature. -
Re: Lodge's Thread Tomorrows selections as posted above is: 7.00 - Wolverhampton - Moves Like Jagger 1pt @ 6/1 Bet365 I'm going to keep the write up short, mainly because i can't get onto the ATR site. I thought Moves Like Jagger's handicap debut was quite promising and if building on that he should certainly be bang there tomorrow. Firstly its worth pointing out that his last race looks a stronger contest than he competes tomorrow, it was a class 6 contest, and the 2nd placed horses has won since and the horse just ahead of him in 4th went very close in 2nd last week. Moves Like Jagger was 5th (beaten 2L), and certainly improved for the switch to a handicap. Off a basement mark he travelled well, trading fairly low in running considering his double figure BSP but didn't quite see the race out that well. I think thats why he's been dropped back to the 'shorter' 9f at Wolverhampton tomorrow. He runs off the same mark and now in class 7 company i expect him to go very close. Paddy Aspell rides, he's got a good record for the yard and has a 28% strike rate this year. All in all i felt his opening price of 6/1 didn't look bad considering his unexposed nature.
Lodge's Thread
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Re: Lodge's Thread
Disappointing day really. Highland Retreat ran okay probably did abit too much up front, what a performance from Quevega though, no-one was beating her. Got a free bet for tomorrow atleast too... Buthelezi was given a strange ride from O'Regan, bounced out in front, set a blistering pace and was knackered after a lap. Don't see the point in even entering a horse if your going to do that? Thankfully i managed to find Midnight Prayer which made my money back! Hoping tomorrows selections run abit better, will post write ups shortly... Staked: 144pts Returned: 246.72ts P/L: +102.72pts