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Lodge

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    Monthly Naps Comp Wednesday 7th Oct

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    2.20 - Towcester - Ask A Bank 1pt @ 7/1 (Paddypower)

    I'm not surprised to see some early money for Ask A Bank who should really be good enough to pick up a race off this mark. He's a maiden from 8 starts and his form is very mixed but the best of it would give him a good chance here. I don't think he ran as badly as his finishing position suggests at Stratford last time, travelling well enough before failing to find much off the bridle he finished a mediocre 7th of 13, hinting a slightly shorter trip may be in order. The form of that race looks solid (3rd and 4th won since) and i'd image that this trip (2m 4f) at a stiff course would suit well.

    He's now a further 3lbs lower than his last run and Jamie Bargary claims a valuable 7lbs putting him on a nice low weight for this. He should strip fitter for the run and that advantage may just count against some making their seasonal re-appearance in this. 

    Monthly Naps Comp, Tuesday 6th Oct - 2015

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    5.40 - Kempton - Secret Emotion 1pt @ 9/1 (Bet365)

    Lightly raced filly that should be able to progress from a handicap mark of 54. Her maiden form looks nothing special but she stepped up on that when 5th of 9 at Windsor over 1m in a nursery last time. She was only beaten 5L by the very well handicapped Cartago (won only start since), and finished in and amongst horses which have run well since such as Breslin, suggesting she should have a little race in her.

    She travelled well that day and I see the step back in trip to 7f as a big plus. The handicapper looks to have been quite kind in dropping her 4lbs and this is certainly a weaker race than last time. Harry Bentley rides for the first time, he is 7 from 32 for this yard showing a big level stakes profit and Ralph Beckett generally has a good record at this course. 9/1 could be a little generous.

    Flat Racing 16th December

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Flat Racing 16th December

    yeah.........if he hadn't given the field 6 or 7 lengths at the start he'd have won in a canter ! The horse in stall 2 was fatally injured during the race (when looking like being placed or finishing 4th) and the first 3 home came from stalls 1, 3 and 4
    Its a draw bias that I hadn't noticed until last night. Just been looking at the ATR draw check feature. There have been 14 races over 5f at Southwell with 10+ runners in 2014 (+1 which they didn't use the stall to start), 11 of the winners have come from stall 4 and below and none above stall 7... it will be an interesting angle for the 5f class 6 handicap there on Thursday...

    Speed Ratings Discussion

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Speed Ratings Discussion The originality things is obviously very important yes. Hence why i set out to create my own set of standard times, I am in the process of doing so for the AW tracks but I would obviously need them for all courses to rate runners switching from turf to AW, unless i left it a month or so until most horses are in 'AW mode'. As for the other allowances and variables I am still in the process of formulating a method. There seems to be a lot of interesting posts on the internet to sift through. I think you've hit the nail on the head though BH, it is a bit of an educational style project for me. My style of betting is generally backing longer priced horses and therefore anything that might help me flag up a potential selection at big odds is surely of use. If it works great, if it doesn't then nothing lost other than a couple of months subscription to RP :lol

    Speed Ratings Discussion

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Speed Ratings Discussion Thank you for the replies guys. I wanted to know about the RP standard times so if i didn't carry on my subscription I could just keep on using the same standard times for a while without them being out of date. The racing post tool seems very useful especially if your just getting started on making your own ratings as I am. I think i'm going to have a play about with it this afternoon and see how I get on... As for storing ratings, I think I may take your advice BH and store them elsewhere too, its certainly worth the extra effort.

    Speed Ratings Discussion

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Speed Ratings Discussion Hi Guys Thought I'd post in this thread rather than start one of my own... I'm toying with the idea of producing some speed ratings to help my analysis of AW racing this winter, basically I have a few questions i'd like to ask which i'll probably post in here over the next couple of days and any I would be grateful of any help/advice... So my first job is obviously sorting standard times, I spent yesterday creating my own for a couple of the AW courses then realised that I'll probably need times for all flat courses in order to rate horses switching from turf to AW which is probably quite common at this type of year i guess... I've come round to the idea it would therefore be easier to perhaps just use the racing post ones atleast for now, what i'd like to know though is how often they update them? My 2nd question relates to the storing ratings... I'm very unfamiliar with the RP site, but have signed up for a month today to try it out. I notice you can obviously store your ratings on there, i'm guessing this would probably be an easy way doing things for someone who isn't an excel whizz? are there any major advantages/disadvantages (other than you have to pay for it :lol) of doing things this way?

    Racing Chat Thread

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Exactly, i didn't argue the fact that the horses were the prices she stated at some point this morning. But the rule 4 should be worked out at the price at the time of the withdrawal. The woman I spoke to didn't want to help and just told me to go to IBAS... I won't be using that account again.

    Racing Chat Thread

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread I have just been in contact with someone from Boylesports and they're adament its a 30p rule, saying that the prices were 17/2 Penny Drops, 8/1 Online Alexander and 9/1 Bondesire. The prices for the 2nd two horses mentioned were correct at the time Penny Drops was a non runner early this morning but surely its the price at the time that each horse withdrawn which in the case of the other 2 was 11/1. Its not about the extra money i would have won, but more about the principle of the bookies playing fairly...

    Racing Chat Thread

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Didn't know where to post this but have a bit of a rule 4 query i'd like someone to clear up for me.... I placed a bet on Valonia last night in the 3.45 at Pontefract today. I took the 15/2 with Boylesports, but there were 3 non runners meaning a rule 4. How much should the rule 4 be? Looking at oddschecker Penny Drops was 17/2, Online Alexander was 11/1 (although they shortened him to 15/2 at 15.16 even though he was taken out at 9.36am?!) and Bondesire was also 11/1. Surely this means the Rule 4 should be 20/25p max? They paid me out with a 30p rule 4 :eek Looking at the results sections of other bookmakers, Bet365 placed a 10p rule 4 on early bets, William Hill 20p rule 4 on early bets. I'm not usually one to slate bookmakers on here but surely a 30p rule is taking the mick slightly?

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