Darran

Balnaslow – Certainly out ran his 40/1 odds at Cheltenham when a 3L 5th to Pacha Du Polder. That was a cracking run though given he made the running and he started racing with Paint The Clouds from early enough. He also made a mistake at the last which cost him. That effort was clearly much more like the efforts he showed when beating Foxrock in a point in December and then finishing 2nd to him at Down Royal on Boxing Day. This shorter trip could suit him better and if he can repeat the Cheltenham effort there is no reason why he can’t run another huge race from the front.
Bear’s Affair – A decent horse when trained by Nicky Henderson and his last win came over the Mildmay course in May 2015 off 145 a race he was winning for the 2nd time. He also wasn’t beaten far in that year’s Coral Cup when 7th. Has run a couple of solid enough races in hunter chases so far. He was a 13L 2nd to Persian Snow at Ludlow when probably needing the run and then was 3rd to Wonderful Charm in the Walrus at Haydock. That day he was racing a long way out with Pearlysteps and I think he paid for that effort late on. Given the same connections had an 100/1 3rd at Cheltenham I certainly wouldn’t want to be ruling him out and there is every chance he can improve on the two runs this season.
Big Fella Thanks – Been placed in a Grand National before and been a very good schoolmaster for Noel George winning a couple of hunter chases last year. Was only 8th in this in 2015 and I would be surprised if he could build on that based on what he has done this season.
Black Thunder – Won a good hunter chase at Kelso in January, but hasn’t been as good since. Was beaten at 1/8 back at Kelso by Premier Portrait and then never got involved when pulling up at Cheltenham. Didn’t really get involved when pulling up in last year’s National either. On the back of the Kelso win he would have a chance, but has a few questions to answer now for me.
Broken Eagle – If ever there was a horse tailor made for this test it is him. He was a much improved horse last season and was dominate in every point he ran in. I saw in the flesh at Higham last January when he ended up beating Decade Player by 30L and I knew I was watching a classy animal as he did it so easily in a very quick time. He certainly hasn’t beaten anything of the quality that will be lining up here, but he could hardly be doing it any easier and the fact the clock backs up the efforts then you really have to take notice. He ran in a couple of hunter chases last season when 2nd over 2m at Cheltenham, before finishing 4th in the John Corbet Cup at Stratford. I thought he was given a poor ride at Cheltenham and was for me the best horse in the race. At Stratford he had as about as much chance of staying the trip as I do of winning the lottery and in the circumstances ran a very good race. I’m certain he is much better than those two efforts showed and his pointing wins have been focused on flat tracks and venues that are shorter than 3m so this test should be ideal for him. This season he has hacked up in a couple of points before having a walkover at Ampton last time. Decent ground is a must and if he gets it I think he is capable of running a huge race.
Damiens Dilemma – Won a point on his seasonal debut, but a well beaten 6th behind Wonderful Charm at Musselburgh and Haydock. Only 3rd in a point last month and has no chance here. I would go back handicapping with him given he is only 1lbs higher than the mark he won off at Hexham in June.
Darwins Fox – Got tired at Musselburgh after he and Decade Player cut each others throats and he won impressively at Leicester on his next start. Clearly retains a fair bit of ability and a decent jockey booking as well.
Decade Player – Impressive from the front to win a couple of hunter chases at Wetherby and Stratford last May and then suffered when getting taken on for the lead by Darwins Fox at Musselburgh last month when he ended up having to pull up. Got his confidence back in winning at High Easter last month, but that was over 2m4f and I think that was as far as he wants to go.
Dineur – A surprising 2nd to On The Fringe in this last year which was a really good effort. Ended up winning at Worcester in June off a mark of 130. Ran a nice little prep for this when 2nd to Vasco Du Mee in the Chepstow mud last month. He was beaten 14L but his jockey wasn’t over hard on him. It is hard to see him going one better, but at the same time I can see him running another good race and I wouldn’t put people off backing him each-way at all based on last year’s effort.
Distime –Just got himself qualified at Ludlow in February when a remote 3rd behind Persian Snow and Bear’s Affair. This will no doubt have been the target given he was 3rd in last season’s Grand Sefton and 4th in last year’s Topham. Place chances on those efforts, but will need to come on a ton for the Ludlow run which was pretty bad. Katie Walsh an interesting jockey booking though.
Fitz Volante – Will be massively outclassed here.
Flash Garden – On had the 6 runs and has won the 4 points he has run in and finished 2nd in both hunter chases. Ran perfectly respectably when 2nd to Knocklong at Catterick after a year off, but although he is clearly unexposed it is hard to see him being good enough to be troubling the best of these.
Loch Ba – Has bolted up in his last two hunter chases at Wincanton and Carlisle having been badly hampered at the first on his seasonal return and then being in need of the run at Chaddesley Corbett when 2nd. He beat very little, especially at Wincanton, in those two wins, but he could hardly have done it any easier. He also he clocked a good time at Wincanton so it was obviously a decent effort. Looks sure to give his jockey a great experience out in front and a bold showing wouldn’t surprise.
Mendip Express – 3rd in this last year, but never really looked like winning. Was beaten by Mr Mercurial at 2/9 at Ludlow on his return and was 9th at Cheltenham beaten 22L by Pacha Du Polder. On the basis of those two runs you would be hard pressed to think he could equal that 3rd of last year let alone beat it.
Moscow Chancer – Well beaten at Ludlow on his return after nearly 2 years off and certainly better than that although not good enough for this.
Mr Mercurial – Impressed me enough on his seasonal return last year at Horseheath to fancy him for Cheltenham where he ran OK to finish a 27L 12th to On The Fringe. He then ran no sort of race Southwell, before finishing a creditable 4thin the Stratford Foxhunters. I thought it was a decent effort to beat Mendip Express first time up and at only 9 there is still some scope for more improvement to come. He does stay further, but it could be that this sort of trip suits him best and a bold showing wouldn’t surprise. Will Biddick keeps the ride after winning on him at Ludlow.
Mr Moss – Has no chance here.
Never Complain – Was beaten a distance by Broken Eagle at Higham a year ago and although he dead heated for first in a point in February, that Higham effort tells you he has plenty to find.
On The Fringe – I thought Jamie overdid the holdup tactics at Cheltenham. There was no reason for him to be so far back especially bearing in mind he was behind so many horses who weren’t really good enough to be in the race. I’m sure he would ride the race differently if given a chance. Ultimately though he still ran a solid race as he was only beaten 2 and a half lengths back in 4th and if he hadn’t made an error at the 2nd last he would have been a bit closer. I’m sure Jamie will sit much closer on him this year just as he did in this race last season. I also just wonder if he found the ground a bit too fast for his liking as although it was the same as when he won the year before, he did off course make hard work of it that day. He is sure to go close, but he has been priced up tight enough in my view.
Pacha Du Polder – Fair play I got him wrong at Cheltenham as I didn’t think he would stay in a truly run race, but he was given a great ride where it was more beneficial to be handy than held up. He was also the pick of a lot of non hunter chase followers as they were only looking at his run at Cheltenham the year before and the fact Victoria Pendleton wasn’t on him, whereas anything he had done since and before suggested he couldn’t win a Cheltenham Foxhunter. This should be a race much more to his liking and he finished 2nd to On The Fringe in 2015. Last year though he was only a 60L 6th and he finished a very tired horse. Indeed that was by far and away his worse run since the 2013 Topham. Given his 2015 run I certainly don’t think the course is to blame and for whatever reason he just ran below par last year. I’m surprised he isn’t a bit closer to On The Fringe in the betting although I do think On The Fringe can reverse the form.
Poole Master – Has done well since going hunter chasing this season. First up he ran really well at Warwick when 5th behind Grand Vision when he didn’t stay the 3m trip. He turned for home looking like he might well win before fading late on. Then at Bangor his jockey said afterwards that he didn’t seem to fancy it much after he jumped into Pacha Du Polder and in the end was only 4th behind him. Back at Warwick last month he was really impressive in beating Mon Parrain. He has run round the Grand National course 5 times in the past and he won the Grand Sefton in 2014 although the other 4 times he didn’t really show a great deal. He jumps really well and fancies it then I can see him running a good race, but the concern has to be that he runs like he did at Bangor especially in a race like this.
Premier Portrait – Only 18th at Cheltenham following the Kelso win over Black Thunder. Given his running style he will get out paced round here and although I am sure he will get round it will be in his own time.
Rebel Rebellion – Pulled up in the 2015 Grand National and was coming off a near 2 year layoff when a solid enough 2nd to Ask The Weatherman at Wincanton. It is hard to know what happened at Leicester last time behind Galway Jack, but it was surely too bad to be true as he was never really travelling and was well beaten in the end. Was actually 4th behind Poole Master in the 2014 Grand Sefton having won it the year before. You have to take a fair bit on trust with him given the last time out run and the percentage call has to be to oppose.
Richmond – Usually hits the frame in hunter chases, but at a lesser level to this and was a fairly well beaten 3rd at Chepstow last month. Unseated when tailed off in this last year.
Sam Cavallaro – Fell at the 6th in this last year and I would say his whole campaign is working towards landing a hat-trick in the 2m contest at Cheltenham’s hunter chase night. Been well behind Persian Snow in both starts this season.
Sizing Solution – Wasn’t anything special when running in handicaps and his first hunter chase run when a 17L 3rd behind Aupcharlie at Fairyhouse suggests he has plenty to find.
Tony Star – Needs better ground than he has had in the two hunter chases he has run in at Wincanton and Ffos Las this season, but was a 13L 3rd in a point at Howick last month on better ground and likely to struggle here.
Top Cat Henry – Ran pretty well in last year’s Topham when finishing 6th and has done well since moving to this yard. First up he was 2nd in a point to a decent horse in Cave Hunter and then he found the trip too far at Musselburgh when a well beaten 5th. Back over a more suitable trip back there last month he was quite impressive in scoring by 8L. This will be much harder, but I can see him running a decent enough race.
Vincitore – Won on his debut for new connections at Barbury in January and was a bit of an eye-catcher at Leicester last time when 4th behind Galway Jack. I think he could win another hunter chase at the right level, but this is far from being the right level.
 
Summary –
I think this is a lot more open than the betting suggests. Obviously On The Fringe and Pacha Du Polder have great claims and one of them might well win, but they are tight enough in the betting for me. Balnaslow also has a chance on his Cheltenham run although there is potential for a few challengers for the lead on this occasion. Bear’s Affair can showed improved form, Dineur ran a perfectly good prep for this at Ffos Las and Poole Master can go well also. I am going to take two against the field though. Broken Eagle has been my long term fancy for this and hopefully the ground has dried out enough for him to run a big race. This test is set to suit him right down to the ground and he has looked a very classy horse in his pointing wins. He should show a massive step up from his hunter chase runs to date where there were plausible excuses for his runs. The other horse I am going to put up is Mr Mercurial. Last season didn’t quite go to plan after his Horseheath win, but it was a very good effort at Ludlow and if he is back to his best I think he has the ability to play a part here. Those more cautious punters might look to back them in the betting without markets which will be available in the morning. At really big prices I can see Darwins Fox and Top Cat Henry out running their odds. 
 
Broken Eagle 1pt e/w
Mr Mercurial 1pt e/w

Balnaslow – Certainly out ran his 40/1 odds at Cheltenham when a 3L 5th to Pacha Du Polder. That was a cracking run though given he made the running and he started racing with Paint The Clouds from early enough. He also made a mistake at the last which cost him. That effort was clearly much more like the efforts he showed when beating Foxrock in a point in December and then finishing 2nd to him at Down Royal on Boxing Day. This shorter trip could suit him better and if he can repeat the Cheltenham effort there is no reason why he can’t run another huge race from the front.
Bear’s Affair – A decent horse when trained by Nicky Henderson and his last win came over the Mildmay course in May 2015 off 145 a race he was winning for the 2nd time. He also wasn’t beaten far in that year’s Coral Cup when 7th. Has run a couple of solid enough races in hunter chases so far. He was a 13L 2nd to Persian Snow at Ludlow when probably needing the run and then was 3rd to Wonderful Charm in the Walrus at Haydock. That day he was racing a long way out with Pearlysteps and I think he paid for that effort late on. Given the same connections had an 100/1 3rd at Cheltenham I certainly wouldn’t want to be ruling him out and there is every chance he can improve on the two runs this season.
Big Fella Thanks – Been placed in a Grand National before and been a very good schoolmaster for Noel George winning a couple of hunter chases last year. Was only 8th in this in 2015 and I would be surprised if he could build on that based on what he has done this season.
Black Thunder – Won a good hunter chase at Kelso in January, but hasn’t been as good since. Was beaten at 1/8 back at Kelso by Premier Portrait and then never got involved when pulling up at Cheltenham. Didn’t really get involved when pulling up in last year’s National either. On the back of the Kelso win he would have a chance, but has a few questions to answer now for me.
Broken Eagle – If ever there was a horse tailor made for this test it is him. He was a much improved horse last season and was dominate in every point he ran in. I saw in the flesh at Higham last January when he ended up beating Decade Player by 30L and I knew I was watching a classy animal as he did it so easily in a very quick time. He certainly hasn’t beaten anything of the quality that will be lining up here, but he could hardly be doing it any easier and the fact the clock backs up the efforts then you really have to take notice. He ran in a couple of hunter chases last season when 2nd over 2m at Cheltenham, before finishing 4th in the John Corbet Cup at Stratford. I thought he was given a poor ride at Cheltenham and was for me the best horse in the race. At Stratford he had as about as much chance of staying the trip as I do of winning the lottery and in the circumstances ran a very good race. I’m certain he is much better than those two efforts showed and his pointing wins have been focused on flat tracks and venues that are shorter than 3m so this test should be ideal for him. This season he has hacked up in a couple of points before having a walkover at Ampton last time. Decent ground is a must and if he gets it I think he is capable of running a huge race.
Damiens Dilemma – Won a point on his seasonal debut, but a well beaten 6th behind Wonderful Charm at Musselburgh and Haydock. Only 3rd in a point last month and has no chance here. I would go back handicapping with him given he is only 1lbs higher than the mark he won off at Hexham in June.
Darwins Fox – Got tired at Musselburgh after he and Decade Player cut each others throats and he won impressively at Leicester on his next start. Clearly retains a fair bit of ability and a decent jockey booking as well.
Decade Player – Impressive from the front to win a couple of hunter chases at Wetherby and Stratford last May and then suffered when getting taken on for the lead by Darwins Fox at Musselburgh last month when he ended up having to pull up. Got his confidence back in winning at High Easter last month, but that was over 2m4f and I think that was as far as he wants to go.
Dineur – A surprising 2nd to On The Fringe in this last year which was a really good effort. Ended up winning at Worcester in June off a mark of 130. Ran a nice little prep for this when 2nd to Vasco Du Mee in the Chepstow mud last month. He was beaten 14L but his jockey wasn’t over hard on him. It is hard to see him going one better, but at the same time I can see him running another good race and I wouldn’t put people off backing him each-way at all based on last year’s effort.
Distime –Just got himself qualified at Ludlow in February when a remote 3rd behind Persian Snow and Bear’s Affair. This will no doubt have been the target given he was 3rd in last season’s Grand Sefton and 4th in last year’s Topham. Place chances on those efforts, but will need to come on a ton for the Ludlow run which was pretty bad. Katie Walsh an interesting jockey booking though.
Fitz Volante – Will be massively outclassed here.
Flash Garden – On had the 6 runs and has won the 4 points he has run in and finished 2nd in both hunter chases. Ran perfectly respectably when 2nd to Knocklong at Catterick after a year off, but although he is clearly unexposed it is hard to see him being good enough to be troubling the best of these.
Loch Ba – Has bolted up in his last two hunter chases at Wincanton and Carlisle having been badly hampered at the first on his seasonal return and then being in need of the run at Chaddesley Corbett when 2nd. He beat very little, especially at Wincanton, in those two wins, but he could hardly have done it any easier. He also he clocked a good time at Wincanton so it was obviously a decent effort. Looks sure to give his jockey a great experience out in front and a bold showing wouldn’t surprise.
Mendip Express – 3rd in this last year, but never really looked like winning. Was beaten by Mr Mercurial at 2/9 at Ludlow on his return and was 9th at Cheltenham beaten 22L by Pacha Du Polder. On the basis of those two runs you would be hard pressed to think he could equal that 3rd of last year let alone beat it.
Moscow Chancer – Well beaten at Ludlow on his return after nearly 2 years off and certainly better than that although not good enough for this.
Mr Mercurial – Impressed me enough on his seasonal return last year at Horseheath to fancy him for Cheltenham where he ran OK to finish a 27L 12th to On The Fringe. He then ran no sort of race Southwell, before finishing a creditable 4thin the Stratford Foxhunters. I thought it was a decent effort to beat Mendip Express first time up and at only 9 there is still some scope for more improvement to come. He does stay further, but it could be that this sort of trip suits him best and a bold showing wouldn’t surprise. Will Biddick keeps the ride after winning on him at Ludlow.
Mr Moss – Has no chance here.
Never Complain – Was beaten a distance by Broken Eagle at Higham a year ago and although he dead heated for first in a point in February, that Higham effort tells you he has plenty to find.
On The Fringe – I thought Jamie overdid the holdup tactics at Cheltenham. There was no reason for him to be so far back especially bearing in mind he was behind so many horses who weren’t really good enough to be in the race. I’m sure he would ride the race differently if given a chance. Ultimately though he still ran a solid race as he was only beaten 2 and a half lengths back in 4th and if he hadn’t made an error at the 2nd last he would have been a bit closer. I’m sure Jamie will sit much closer on him this year just as he did in this race last season. I also just wonder if he found the ground a bit too fast for his liking as although it was the same as when he won the year before, he did off course make hard work of it that day. He is sure to go close, but he has been priced up tight enough in my view.
Pacha Du Polder – Fair play I got him wrong at Cheltenham as I didn’t think he would stay in a truly run race, but he was given a great ride where it was more beneficial to be handy than held up. He was also the pick of a lot of non hunter chase followers as they were only looking at his run at Cheltenham the year before and the fact Victoria Pendleton wasn’t on him, whereas anything he had done since and before suggested he couldn’t win a Cheltenham Foxhunter. This should be a race much more to his liking and he finished 2nd to On The Fringe in 2015. Last year though he was only a 60L 6th and he finished a very tired horse. Indeed that was by far and away his worse run since the 2013 Topham. Given his 2015 run I certainly don’t think the course is to blame and for whatever reason he just ran below par last year. I’m surprised he isn’t a bit closer to On The Fringe in the betting although I do think On The Fringe can reverse the form.
Poole Master – Has done well since going hunter chasing this season. First up he ran really well at Warwick when 5th behind Grand Vision when he didn’t stay the 3m trip. He turned for home looking like he might well win before fading late on. Then at Bangor his jockey said afterwards that he didn’t seem to fancy it much after he jumped into Pacha Du Polder and in the end was only 4th behind him. Back at Warwick last month he was really impressive in beating Mon Parrain. He has run round the Grand National course 5 times in the past and he won the Grand Sefton in 2014 although the other 4 times he didn’t really show a great deal. He jumps really well and fancies it then I can see him running a good race, but the concern has to be that he runs like he did at Bangor especially in a race like this.
Premier Portrait – Only 18th at Cheltenham following the Kelso win over Black Thunder. Given his running style he will get out paced round here and although I am sure he will get round it will be in his own time.
Rebel Rebellion – Pulled up in the 2015 Grand National and was coming off a near 2 year layoff when a solid enough 2nd to Ask The Weatherman at Wincanton. It is hard to know what happened at Leicester last time behind Galway Jack, but it was surely too bad to be true as he was never really travelling and was well beaten in the end. Was actually 4th behind Poole Master in the 2014 Grand Sefton having won it the year before. You have to take a fair bit on trust with him given the last time out run and the percentage call has to be to oppose.
Richmond – Usually hits the frame in hunter chases, but at a lesser level to this and was a fairly well beaten 3rd at Chepstow last month. Unseated when tailed off in this last year.
Sam Cavallaro – Fell at the 6th in this last year and I would say his whole campaign is working towards landing a hat-trick in the 2m contest at Cheltenham’s hunter chase night. Been well behind Persian Snow in both starts this season.
Sizing Solution – Wasn’t anything special when running in handicaps and his first hunter chase run when a 17L 3rd behind Aupcharlie at Fairyhouse suggests he has plenty to find.
Tony Star – Needs better ground than he has had in the two hunter chases he has run in at Wincanton and Ffos Las this season, but was a 13L 3rd in a point at Howick last month on better ground and likely to struggle here.
Top Cat Henry – Ran pretty well in last year’s Topham when finishing 6th and has done well since moving to this yard. First up he was 2nd in a point to a decent horse in Cave Hunter and then he found the trip too far at Musselburgh when a well beaten 5th. Back over a more suitable trip back there last month he was quite impressive in scoring by 8L. This will be much harder, but I can see him running a decent enough race.
Vincitore – Won on his debut for new connections at Barbury in January and was a bit of an eye-catcher at Leicester last time when 4th behind Galway Jack. I think he could win another hunter chase at the right level, but this is far from being the right level.
 
Summary –
I think this is a lot more open than the betting suggests. Obviously On The Fringe and Pacha Du Polder have great claims and one of them might well win, but they are tight enough in the betting for me. Balnaslow also has a chance on his Cheltenham run although there is potential for a few challengers for the lead on this occasion. Bear’s Affair can showed improved form, Dineur ran a perfectly good prep for this at Ffos Las and Poole Master can go well also. I am going to take two against the field though. Broken Eagle has been my long term fancy for this and hopefully the ground has dried out enough for him to run a big race. This test is set to suit him right down to the ground and he has looked a very classy horse in his pointing wins. He should show a massive step up from his hunter chase runs to date where there were plausible excuses for his runs. The other horse I am going to put up is Mr Mercurial. Last season didn’t quite go to plan after his Horseheath win, but it was a very good effort at Ludlow and if he is back to his best I think he has the ability to play a part here. Those more cautious punters might look to back them in the betting without markets which will be available in the morning. At really big prices I can see Darwins Fox and Top Cat Henry out running their odds. 
 
Broken Eagle 1pt e/w
Mr Mercurial 1pt e/w

Here is my Foxhunter preview
Anseanachai Cliste – A horse I remember well from his time when owned by David Maxwell. I saw him run in a couple of points at Godstone under David and he didn’t look like a horse that wanted to know. He then ran in a hunter chase at Warwick when Will Biddick rode him and again he just wasn’t interested and pulled up. That was in 2015 and he went back to Ireland after that. He surprised me when finishing 5th at Leopardtown (in front of On The Fringe) last year and then he surprised me again when I saw how short he was in the betting for this. Following Leopardstown he went on to win 7 races on the bounce! I can’t quite believe it is the same horse I witnessed in 2015. Horses he beat include Valmy Baie and Quiet Account so the form isn’t bad. He hasn’t been seen since winning in June though and even though he clearly is a much better horse than he used to be, his form still looks below what is required to win this.
Ask The Weatherman – Been the big market mover for the race. He was going to be aimed at the Foxhunters last season, but he picked up an injury. He has won 8 of his 9 points and it is interesting watching his videos because he hasn't always looked visually impressive, but what does make you sit up and take notice are the times he has been clocking. Last season in his two runs he clocked the fastest time at Larkhill in soft ground when he won by 30L and it was the same story in even worse ground at Chipley. On his seasonal debut at Larkhill he recorded the fastest time by 7 seconds when beating Ceasar Milan by 15L and then he put in a very impressive performance when beating Rebel Rebellion on his Rules debut at Wincanton. I was impressed with his jumping that day and he looks to have all the qualities you need to win a Foxhunter. The problem is Rebel Rebellion disappointed at Leicester recently although you probably have to say he didn’t run his race. He won’t mind what the weather does, but if it does rain crucially we know he handles it. He looks like he stays all day and it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if he turned into a Grand National horse at some stage and Cappa Bleu who run the Foxhunter in 2009 went on to finish 4th and 2nd in the National.
Aupcharlie – Was 3rd in the 2011 Cheltenham Bumper and was only beaten just over 4L when 6th to On The Fringe in last year’s race. That was clearly a very good effort, but I just wonder if he was one of the suspect stayers to run well because of the way the race was run. Following the Cheltenham run he was a well beaten 7th to On The Fringe at Punchestown. This time around his season has been based on the Foxhunter. He was beaten in a point on February 11th and then bolted up at Fairyhouse on Saturday over 2m5f albeit it wasn’t a very strong hunter chase. That should have put him spot on for Cheltenham, but I still have my stamina concerns about him and although I can see him running well I don’t really see how he can reverse form with On The Fringe or Paint The Clouds. I suspect he will need a new jockey as well with Jamie Codd riding On The Fringe.
Balnaslow – Beat Foxrock in a point in December, but was a 9L 2nd to him at Down Royal on Boxing Day. Only 5th behind On His Own and 2nd to Home Farm in two starts since and that suggests he won’t be up to winning this. Was 4th in the 2014 Kim Muir.
Barel Of Laughs – A likeable horse who won the first hunter chase of the season at Taunton. Was 2nd over course and distance to Pearlysteps on hunter chase night here last April and as solid a run as that was it backs up the feeling he won’t be good enough to be involved in the finish here.
Black Thunder – Finished 7th behind The Druids Nephew at the 2015 Festival when he actually burst a blood vessel. Didn’t show a great deal after that, but proved himself more than up to hunter chase company when winning a hot race at Kelso. Given the 2 in behind have both won since it was a surprise he was beaten by Premier Portrait back at Kelso a couple of weeks ago. Now Premier Portrait is a decent pointer and is a horse I can see running a solid race in the Foxhunter, but even so it was disappointing he had little in the tank on the run-in. The closeness of the 3rd Wicklow Lad does little for the form either especially as that one was disappointing at Carlisle next time. Given his Dad owns it Sam Waley-Cohen has to ride him over Paint The Clouds, but I certainly think he is on the wrong horse.
Buckers Bridge – Well beaten 12th at last year’s Festival behind Empire Of Dirt and was 11th in the 2014 Grand National. Won a couple of open’s in Ireland including last time out, but overall form this season leaves him with something to find including 3rd in a Down Royal hunter chase to Foxrock.
Cottage Oak – Won his last two in points including on Sunday, but has no chance here.
Current Event – Was one of those non-stayers to benefit from the slower pace last year when finishing a close 4th. Was 4th at Aintree as well although beaten 25L then and he proved yet again he doesn’t stay this trip when a 35L to Pearlysteps over this course and distance on hunter chase night. Not run yet this season and his 3 riders to ride him in hunter chases are all booked on other mounts so it will be interesting to see who takes the ride this time around.
Dolatulo – Thought he benefitted from Grand Vision and Black Thunder racing from a long way out at Kelso and was possibly slightly flattered by that effort even though he should have won the race. Ran poorly at Warwick where the race came too soon after Kelso, but was back to form when bolting up Ffos Las in the Welsh Foxhunter. His jockey is very inexperienced and he wonders if he is ready for such a test as this. Has run at the last 3 Festivals and been well beaten on each occasion albeit he was a big price each time.
Grand Jesture – Given he has refused to race on his last three Rules starts he looks to be a pretty risky betting proposition. Has won a couple of Opens in Ireland this season, but was beaten at 1/2 on February 19th. The ability is there as he proves when 2nd to The Druids Nephew in the 2015 Festival, but he wouldn’t be for me given the large risk of him not starting.
Grand Vision – Was 4th in the 2015 Kim Muir and I thought he ran a really good race on his first run since when 3rd at Kelso, given how keen he was and he race Black Thunder from a long way out. Backed that up with a dominant performance at Warwick when beating Pearlysteps and then qualified for this when 2nd to Pacha Du Polder at Bangor over 2m4f. I suspect he can reverse that form over this trip and should be capable of running a good race. Was also 3rd to Brindisi Breeze in the 2012 Albert Barlett.
Lets Get Serious – Wouldn’t even win if he started now.
Mendip Express – 8th in this last year and then 3rd at Aintree and Punchestown. Was beaten at 2/9 on his seasonal debut at Ludlow last month, but Mr Mercurial is a good horse on his day and he should come on for that run. Even so it is hard to see how he can reverse form with On The Fringe and at most he has a place chance.
Minella For Value – Refused when returning to pointing in Ireland this season, but has won three of his next four including beating First Lieutenant. The other time he was 2nd to Sweet As A Nut though and I looks to have a fair bit to find based on that.
On The Fringe – One of the best (if not the best) hunter chasers we have ever seen and it was a fantastic achievement to land the treble for the 2nd time last season. No doubt will be bidding to land the treble treble this season and he proved at Leopardstown last time that he is in great form. He jumped really well and was just beaten by the match fit Foxrock. That was a big improvement from his run in that Leopardstown race last year and that can only bode well for his bid to land the hat-trick. I thought last year that the ride Nina gave him got him out of jail as I don’t think he was at his best, but that Leopardstown run suggests he is further forward this season. He sets a very tough standard for the newcomers to aim at. I am sure some of you reading this will have purchased the Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide and ATR’s Kevin Blake has written a few banker or busts for the 4 days and one of his busts was On The Fringe. The main reason for this was because he feels the demands of this race don’t suit him. 2 years ago I pretty much wrote that and I think I may have even said they shouldn’t bother running him in this race and just focus on the Aintree version. Fortunately for me he still won at Aintree, but he bolted up at Cheltenham first. Now the soft ground was against Paint The Clouds and past him it wasn’t a strong race, so I can sort of see Kevin’s point about maybe that run isn’t as good as it looks visually. It is also true when Kevin points out he went on to produce better efforts last season than he did in this which he also did the other two times he has run at Cheltenham. However I think he has missed a crucial factor about the horse last season. He was injured which held him up and that clearly showed when he ran so poorly at Leopardstown. I think they were always playing catch up with him after that and he still wasn’t at his peak come March. As I mention above this year his run at Leopardstown proves he is much further forward and I would imagine he is ready to peak this time around.
Pacha Du Polder – Was obviously the talking horse of last year’s race when flying up the hill to finish 5th under Victoria Pendleton. Bryony Frost is set to take the ride this time around and his win at Bangor when beaten Grand Vision showed he is back in good form this season. I think he was flattered by last year’s run though because he had his stamina protected and they went a slow pace so it wasn’t a test of stamina. Was 3rd behind Paint The Clouds at Stratford and I don’t see how he can reverse form with him let alone win.
Paint The Clouds – Won the same Doncaster race for the 3rd year running last month and it was a good effort as including jockey’s claims he was giving 13lbs to the 2nd Ardea who is a decent hunter chaser in his own right. That effort should put him spot on for Cheltenham. The slow pace was against him last year and he just got going too late to overhaul Marito and On The Fringe on the run-in. The year before when he was also 3rd the ground went against him and if he gets decent ground and a fast pace he will have a major say yet again. Won the big race at Stratford for the 2nd time last year under Barry O’Neill who picks up the spare ride again here. As good as Sam is, I thought Barry gave him a hell of a ride to win that night and I think it is big plus to his chances that Barry is on again. That effort proved he was the best hunter chaser from these shores and he should be capable of going close once more.
Pentiffic – Won the Grand National Chase when he was trained in Australia and has won 3 hunter chases since turning to them in 2014. Usually runs on when the race is over, but ran as well as could
be expected when 2nd to Wonderful Charm in the Walrus last time. Probably capable of a mid field finish if he were to take his chance as he will keep going when others have cried enough.
Premier Portrait – Has been a winning machine in points over the last two years and caused a massive upset when beating the 1/8 Black Thunder at Kelso last time. I certainly think this test will suit as he can get himself outpaced, but as he showed when 3rd at Horseheath the time before as well as at Kelso, he can finish his races off well. The suspicion is though that Black Thunder underperformed and given Wicklow Lad, who finished a close 3rd, ran poorly at Carlisle last week that also puts a question mark over the form. What I can imagine happening though is him getting out paced and then staying on past beaten horses and as much as it probably won’t see him hitting the frame it should be enough for a top 10 finish.
Salsify – He looked along way below his best on his seasonal return at Thurles when falling heavily behind Foxrock. He ran much better behind the same horse at Leopardstown last time though which was good to see. Even so it is hard to see him adding to his two wins in the race on the form he has shown in the last couple of years.
Sweet As A Nut – Has even less experience than Ask The Weatherman having only had the 7 starts. He started off his season early when winning a winners of 2 race at Castletown, before running out on his next start. He was then 3rd in his first start in open company Dromahane behind Sydney Paget in November. He made his hunter chase debut over Christmas at Limerick and he couldn’t have been more impressive when bolting up by 15L although it was a pretty weak contest. He qualified for this when winning an open at Tallowlast month. Does look progressive, but he is going to have to improve a lot to win this. Would be some feat to win this as well given he only made his debut in December 2015 although the vibes have been fairly strong regarding his chances from the Irish.
Warden Hill – Fairly useful under Rules for Mick Channon and didn’t run too badly when 3rd over course and distance last April off 137. He fell on his pointing debut in December, but then won well in January before finishing 2nd at Fakenham to Carlton Ryan. He did get hampered at the last although it is unlikely he would have won and he will struggle here.
Wonderful Charm – Won a couple of Grade 2 chases in the past and currently has a BHA rating of 153. Has not had to be extended to win the Scottish Foxhunter at Musselburgh and The Walrus at Haydock and the win there means he has a chance of going for a £10k bonus. Beating Carlton Ryan as easily as he did was a superb effort as he is a useful hunter chaser himself. The problem I have is that Paul Nicholls has come out and said that the horse has had a few wind ops and that he still has an issue with his wind. He wears a tongue-tie in his races which backs that point up. Winning a Cheltenham Foxhunter is very different from beating lesser rivals on the bridle on a flat track and I just wonder how much he is going to find once he comes off the bridle. I’d be surprised if he can win this on the bridle and if his wind becomes an issue under pressure then he looks opposable to me. Katie Walsh is a decent jockey booking although she said her best bet of the meeting was On The Fringe at a recent Festival preview night. To put his hunter chase runs into context he has been given a loose-leaf (the pointing and hunter chase formbook) rating of 11-6 which is 1lb higher than Marito and Paint The Clouds achieved last season and 5lbs below On The Fringe. The final point to make is I have seen one tipster state that Wonderful Charm is well in with On The Fringe based on BHA ratings. However BHA ratings aren’t really worth looking at when it comes to hunter chases. If Wonderful Charm was capable of winning a handicap off 153 he would not be running in this and in my view he certainly isn’t any better than Foxrock and given I think a race fit On The Fringe would be capable of beating Foxrock, I think he can beat Wonderful Charm here.
Summary – There seem to be vibes in Ireland for the chances of Sweet As A Nut and Aupcharlie but neither massively appeal to me. The former is clearly progressive, but has to improve a fair bit on what he has shown us so far. Aupcharlie has been trained with this race in mind, but I can’t help thinking he was a bit flattered by his 6th in this last year as he benefitted by the slower than normal pace and I think he might struggle to stay in a truly run race. Wonderful Charm is respected and if his wind doesn’t stop him then he has the class to go close, but his wind issues are enough to put me off him. I backed Ask The Weatherman prior to the Wincanton run and was very pleased after the race, but it does concern me Rebel Rebellion wasn’t for whatever reason able to boost the form at Leicester. Even so I think he looks like a horse with a lot of potential and I can easily see him turning into a National type next season. He is proven on any ground so he won’t mind what the weather does and I believe he has the ability to go close. The one horse who I think is overpriced is Paint The Clouds as granted good ground he shouldn’t be a double figure price. He has been 3rd in the last two runnings and it is easy to see him hitting the frame again at the very least. I do however think On The Fringe is going to be very tough to beat. He is clearly further forward than last season and I suspect he can put in a better performance than he did in this race last year. If he does than it is hard to see him getting beat. His price is obviously reflective of his chances though, but as I suspected his price has gone back out a bit already and it wouldn’t surprise me if he gets even bigger on Friday morning as the bookies start competing for business.
1st On The Fringe
2nd Paint The Clouds
3rd Ask The Weatherman

Here is my Foxhunter preview
Anseanachai Cliste – A horse I remember well from his time when owned by David Maxwell. I saw him run in a couple of points at Godstone under David and he didn’t look like a horse that wanted to know. He then ran in a hunter chase at Warwick when Will Biddick rode him and again he just wasn’t interested and pulled up. That was in 2015 and he went back to Ireland after that. He surprised me when finishing 5th at Leopardtown (in front of On The Fringe) last year and then he surprised me again when I saw how short he was in the betting for this. Following Leopardstown he went on to win 7 races on the bounce! I can’t quite believe it is the same horse I witnessed in 2015. Horses he beat include Valmy Baie and Quiet Account so the form isn’t bad. He hasn’t been seen since winning in June though and even though he clearly is a much better horse than he used to be, his form still looks below what is required to win this.
Ask The Weatherman – Been the big market mover for the race. He was going to be aimed at the Foxhunters last season, but he picked up an injury. He has won 8 of his 9 points and it is interesting watching his videos because he hasn't always looked visually impressive, but what does make you sit up and take notice are the times he has been clocking. Last season in his two runs he clocked the fastest time at Larkhill in soft ground when he won by 30L and it was the same story in even worse ground at Chipley. On his seasonal debut at Larkhill he recorded the fastest time by 7 seconds when beating Ceasar Milan by 15L and then he put in a very impressive performance when beating Rebel Rebellion on his Rules debut at Wincanton. I was impressed with his jumping that day and he looks to have all the qualities you need to win a Foxhunter. The problem is Rebel Rebellion disappointed at Leicester recently although you probably have to say he didn’t run his race. He won’t mind what the weather does, but if it does rain crucially we know he handles it. He looks like he stays all day and it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if he turned into a Grand National horse at some stage and Cappa Bleu who run the Foxhunter in 2009 went on to finish 4th and 2nd in the National.
Aupcharlie – Was 3rd in the 2011 Cheltenham Bumper and was only beaten just over 4L when 6th to On The Fringe in last year’s race. That was clearly a very good effort, but I just wonder if he was one of the suspect stayers to run well because of the way the race was run. Following the Cheltenham run he was a well beaten 7th to On The Fringe at Punchestown. This time around his season has been based on the Foxhunter. He was beaten in a point on February 11th and then bolted up at Fairyhouse on Saturday over 2m5f albeit it wasn’t a very strong hunter chase. That should have put him spot on for Cheltenham, but I still have my stamina concerns about him and although I can see him running well I don’t really see how he can reverse form with On The Fringe or Paint The Clouds. I suspect he will need a new jockey as well with Jamie Codd riding On The Fringe.
Balnaslow – Beat Foxrock in a point in December, but was a 9L 2nd to him at Down Royal on Boxing Day. Only 5th behind On His Own and 2nd to Home Farm in two starts since and that suggests he won’t be up to winning this. Was 4th in the 2014 Kim Muir.
Barel Of Laughs – A likeable horse who won the first hunter chase of the season at Taunton. Was 2nd over course and distance to Pearlysteps on hunter chase night here last April and as solid a run as that was it backs up the feeling he won’t be good enough to be involved in the finish here.
Black Thunder – Finished 7th behind The Druids Nephew at the 2015 Festival when he actually burst a blood vessel. Didn’t show a great deal after that, but proved himself more than up to hunter chase company when winning a hot race at Kelso. Given the 2 in behind have both won since it was a surprise he was beaten by Premier Portrait back at Kelso a couple of weeks ago. Now Premier Portrait is a decent pointer and is a horse I can see running a solid race in the Foxhunter, but even so it was disappointing he had little in the tank on the run-in. The closeness of the 3rd Wicklow Lad does little for the form either especially as that one was disappointing at Carlisle next time. Given his Dad owns it Sam Waley-Cohen has to ride him over Paint The Clouds, but I certainly think he is on the wrong horse.
Buckers Bridge – Well beaten 12th at last year’s Festival behind Empire Of Dirt and was 11th in the 2014 Grand National. Won a couple of open’s in Ireland including last time out, but overall form this season leaves him with something to find including 3rd in a Down Royal hunter chase to Foxrock.
Cottage Oak – Won his last two in points including on Sunday, but has no chance here.
Current Event – Was one of those non-stayers to benefit from the slower pace last year when finishing a close 4th. Was 4th at Aintree as well although beaten 25L then and he proved yet again he doesn’t stay this trip when a 35L to Pearlysteps over this course and distance on hunter chase night. Not run yet this season and his 3 riders to ride him in hunter chases are all booked on other mounts so it will be interesting to see who takes the ride this time around.
Dolatulo – Thought he benefitted from Grand Vision and Black Thunder racing from a long way out at Kelso and was possibly slightly flattered by that effort even though he should have won the race. Ran poorly at Warwick where the race came too soon after Kelso, but was back to form when bolting up Ffos Las in the Welsh Foxhunter. His jockey is very inexperienced and he wonders if he is ready for such a test as this. Has run at the last 3 Festivals and been well beaten on each occasion albeit he was a big price each time.
Grand Jesture – Given he has refused to race on his last three Rules starts he looks to be a pretty risky betting proposition. Has won a couple of Opens in Ireland this season, but was beaten at 1/2 on February 19th. The ability is there as he proves when 2nd to The Druids Nephew in the 2015 Festival, but he wouldn’t be for me given the large risk of him not starting.
Grand Vision – Was 4th in the 2015 Kim Muir and I thought he ran a really good race on his first run since when 3rd at Kelso, given how keen he was and he race Black Thunder from a long way out. Backed that up with a dominant performance at Warwick when beating Pearlysteps and then qualified for this when 2nd to Pacha Du Polder at Bangor over 2m4f. I suspect he can reverse that form over this trip and should be capable of running a good race. Was also 3rd to Brindisi Breeze in the 2012 Albert Barlett.
Lets Get Serious – Wouldn’t even win if he started now.
Mendip Express – 8th in this last year and then 3rd at Aintree and Punchestown. Was beaten at 2/9 on his seasonal debut at Ludlow last month, but Mr Mercurial is a good horse on his day and he should come on for that run. Even so it is hard to see how he can reverse form with On The Fringe and at most he has a place chance.
Minella For Value – Refused when returning to pointing in Ireland this season, but has won three of his next four including beating First Lieutenant. The other time he was 2nd to Sweet As A Nut though and I looks to have a fair bit to find based on that.
On The Fringe – One of the best (if not the best) hunter chasers we have ever seen and it was a fantastic achievement to land the treble for the 2nd time last season. No doubt will be bidding to land the treble treble this season and he proved at Leopardstown last time that he is in great form. He jumped really well and was just beaten by the match fit Foxrock. That was a big improvement from his run in that Leopardstown race last year and that can only bode well for his bid to land the hat-trick. I thought last year that the ride Nina gave him got him out of jail as I don’t think he was at his best, but that Leopardstown run suggests he is further forward this season. He sets a very tough standard for the newcomers to aim at. I am sure some of you reading this will have purchased the Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide and ATR’s Kevin Blake has written a few banker or busts for the 4 days and one of his busts was On The Fringe. The main reason for this was because he feels the demands of this race don’t suit him. 2 years ago I pretty much wrote that and I think I may have even said they shouldn’t bother running him in this race and just focus on the Aintree version. Fortunately for me he still won at Aintree, but he bolted up at Cheltenham first. Now the soft ground was against Paint The Clouds and past him it wasn’t a strong race, so I can sort of see Kevin’s point about maybe that run isn’t as good as it looks visually. It is also true when Kevin points out he went on to produce better efforts last season than he did in this which he also did the other two times he has run at Cheltenham. However I think he has missed a crucial factor about the horse last season. He was injured which held him up and that clearly showed when he ran so poorly at Leopardstown. I think they were always playing catch up with him after that and he still wasn’t at his peak come March. As I mention above this year his run at Leopardstown proves he is much further forward and I would imagine he is ready to peak this time around.
Pacha Du Polder – Was obviously the talking horse of last year’s race when flying up the hill to finish 5th under Victoria Pendleton. Bryony Frost is set to take the ride this time around and his win at Bangor when beaten Grand Vision showed he is back in good form this season. I think he was flattered by last year’s run though because he had his stamina protected and they went a slow pace so it wasn’t a test of stamina. Was 3rd behind Paint The Clouds at Stratford and I don’t see how he can reverse form with him let alone win.
Paint The Clouds – Won the same Doncaster race for the 3rd year running last month and it was a good effort as including jockey’s claims he was giving 13lbs to the 2nd Ardea who is a decent hunter chaser in his own right. That effort should put him spot on for Cheltenham. The slow pace was against him last year and he just got going too late to overhaul Marito and On The Fringe on the run-in. The year before when he was also 3rd the ground went against him and if he gets decent ground and a fast pace he will have a major say yet again. Won the big race at Stratford for the 2nd time last year under Barry O’Neill who picks up the spare ride again here. As good as Sam is, I thought Barry gave him a hell of a ride to win that night and I think it is big plus to his chances that Barry is on again. That effort proved he was the best hunter chaser from these shores and he should be capable of going close once more.
Pentiffic – Won the Grand National Chase when he was trained in Australia and has won 3 hunter chases since turning to them in 2014. Usually runs on when the race is over, but ran as well as could
be expected when 2nd to Wonderful Charm in the Walrus last time. Probably capable of a mid field finish if he were to take his chance as he will keep going when others have cried enough.
Premier Portrait – Has been a winning machine in points over the last two years and caused a massive upset when beating the 1/8 Black Thunder at Kelso last time. I certainly think this test will suit as he can get himself outpaced, but as he showed when 3rd at Horseheath the time before as well as at Kelso, he can finish his races off well. The suspicion is though that Black Thunder underperformed and given Wicklow Lad, who finished a close 3rd, ran poorly at Carlisle last week that also puts a question mark over the form. What I can imagine happening though is him getting out paced and then staying on past beaten horses and as much as it probably won’t see him hitting the frame it should be enough for a top 10 finish.
Salsify – He looked along way below his best on his seasonal return at Thurles when falling heavily behind Foxrock. He ran much better behind the same horse at Leopardstown last time though which was good to see. Even so it is hard to see him adding to his two wins in the race on the form he has shown in the last couple of years.
Sweet As A Nut – Has even less experience than Ask The Weatherman having only had the 7 starts. He started off his season early when winning a winners of 2 race at Castletown, before running out on his next start. He was then 3rd in his first start in open company Dromahane behind Sydney Paget in November. He made his hunter chase debut over Christmas at Limerick and he couldn’t have been more impressive when bolting up by 15L although it was a pretty weak contest. He qualified for this when winning an open at Tallowlast month. Does look progressive, but he is going to have to improve a lot to win this. Would be some feat to win this as well given he only made his debut in December 2015 although the vibes have been fairly strong regarding his chances from the Irish.
Warden Hill – Fairly useful under Rules for Mick Channon and didn’t run too badly when 3rd over course and distance last April off 137. He fell on his pointing debut in December, but then won well in January before finishing 2nd at Fakenham to Carlton Ryan. He did get hampered at the last although it is unlikely he would have won and he will struggle here.
Wonderful Charm – Won a couple of Grade 2 chases in the past and currently has a BHA rating of 153. Has not had to be extended to win the Scottish Foxhunter at Musselburgh and The Walrus at Haydock and the win there means he has a chance of going for a £10k bonus. Beating Carlton Ryan as easily as he did was a superb effort as he is a useful hunter chaser himself. The problem I have is that Paul Nicholls has come out and said that the horse has had a few wind ops and that he still has an issue with his wind. He wears a tongue-tie in his races which backs that point up. Winning a Cheltenham Foxhunter is very different from beating lesser rivals on the bridle on a flat track and I just wonder how much he is going to find once he comes off the bridle. I’d be surprised if he can win this on the bridle and if his wind becomes an issue under pressure then he looks opposable to me. Katie Walsh is a decent jockey booking although she said her best bet of the meeting was On The Fringe at a recent Festival preview night. To put his hunter chase runs into context he has been given a loose-leaf (the pointing and hunter chase formbook) rating of 11-6 which is 1lb higher than Marito and Paint The Clouds achieved last season and 5lbs below On The Fringe. The final point to make is I have seen one tipster state that Wonderful Charm is well in with On The Fringe based on BHA ratings. However BHA ratings aren’t really worth looking at when it comes to hunter chases. If Wonderful Charm was capable of winning a handicap off 153 he would not be running in this and in my view he certainly isn’t any better than Foxrock and given I think a race fit On The Fringe would be capable of beating Foxrock, I think he can beat Wonderful Charm here.
Summary – There seem to be vibes in Ireland for the chances of Sweet As A Nut and Aupcharlie but neither massively appeal to me. The former is clearly progressive, but has to improve a fair bit on what he has shown us so far. Aupcharlie has been trained with this race in mind, but I can’t help thinking he was a bit flattered by his 6th in this last year as he benefitted by the slower than normal pace and I think he might struggle to stay in a truly run race. Wonderful Charm is respected and if his wind doesn’t stop him then he has the class to go close, but his wind issues are enough to put me off him. I backed Ask The Weatherman prior to the Wincanton run and was very pleased after the race, but it does concern me Rebel Rebellion wasn’t for whatever reason able to boost the form at Leicester. Even so I think he looks like a horse with a lot of potential and I can easily see him turning into a National type next season. He is proven on any ground so he won’t mind what the weather does and I believe he has the ability to go close. The one horse who I think is overpriced is Paint The Clouds as granted good ground he shouldn’t be a double figure price. He has been 3rd in the last two runnings and it is easy to see him hitting the frame again at the very least. I do however think On The Fringe is going to be very tough to beat. He is clearly further forward than last season and I suspect he can put in a better performance than he did in this race last year. If he does than it is hard to see him getting beat. His price is obviously reflective of his chances though, but as I suspected his price has gone back out a bit already and it wouldn’t surprise me if he gets even bigger on Friday morning as the bookies start competing for business.
1st On The Fringe
2nd Paint The Clouds
3rd Ask The Weatherman

Bound For Glory – Ran a superb race to finish 5th in this last season, but the ground will be softer on this occasion and that caught him out when a disappointing 6th at Ludlow last time.

Clonbanan Lad – Made a solid hunter chase debut when a 17L 3rd behind Mendip Express at Warwick, and then ran well at Sandown in the Royal Artillery Gold Cup before his stamina ran out. He was a good 2nd in a strong hunter chase at Leicester last month and then won a lesser contest in easy enough style at Fakenham last time. Could run a nice race as he is in decent form this season, but the level of that form is below what is needed to win this.

Cottage Oak – Finished 5th and 8th in this race in the past, but firmly on the downgrade now.

Current Event – A really interesting contender especially as connections have booked Katie Walsh for the ride. This is the ideal trip for him as he proved last season when winning at Cheltenham’s hunter chase night in impressive style, and then when scoring in the only handicap hunter chase of the season at Newton Abbot. He has just had the two runs this season and, whilst he was possibly a fortunate winner of his point on seasonal debut, he put in a super effort to finish 4th at Cheltenham. I thought Will Biddick gave him a very good ride that day and that, combined with the slow pace, meant he was able to stay better than he would have done in a strongly run race. He unseated in this last year at the 7th so it was way too early to know how we would have got on, but he has the ability to be bang there if getting round this time around. He has won on soft ground, so the ground shouldn’t be a concern for him

Current Exchange – Ran much better than I thought he would when 9th at Cheltenham, but I would be surprised if he did better than that over this shorter trip.

Daymar Bay – Caused a massive shock when winning at 50/1 at Ludlow last month. Didn’t appear to be a fluke as he did it well, but would need to step up again to be winning this.

Dineur – Finished 2nd in both his hunter chase runs at Ffos Las and at Leicester. They were fair efforts, but a long way below what is needed to win this.

Doubledisdoubledat – Trainer won this with 100/1 shot Tartan Snow in 2013, but this horse should be an even bigger price based on his two runs this season.

Forge Valley – Going to be very outclassed in this.

Fort George – 13 and firmly on the downgrade.

Fredo – Made a decent enough hunter chase debut at Musselburgh when 2nd to Kelpht, but disappointed when only 5th at Warwick on his next start, and unlikely he will be good enough.

Major Malarkey – Ran pretty well in this last year to finish 4th given the trip is not long enough for him, and showed up well for a long way at Cheltenham when he was enterprisingly ridden. Could run well again, but will likely get himself too far back before staying on and finishing in the top half of the field.

Marasonnien – He won a Grade 1 novice hurdle at the 2012 Punchestown Festival and he seems to have retained a fair bit of ability. He was disappointing in his first two points, but they were his first runs since April 2013. He then beat Salsify in really good style in a hunter chase at Gowran last month, before easily reversing form with Luska Lad, who had beaten him in February, in a point. Katie Walsh has ridden him the last two times and I don’t know if there is anything to read in the fact she has chosen to ride Current Event this time around. He clearly stays well, but he has won over shorter in the past and he doesn’t look short of pace. Crucially he also handles cut in the ground. He looks to have a very good chance and it could be a plus he missed Cheltenham.

Mendip Express – Didn’t take to the fences straight away when he ran in the 2014 Becher Chase, but eventually found his stride to finish 2nd. The slow pace didn’t suit him at Cheltenham and he struggled to get involved and finished 8th in the end. There will be a stronger pace here and he does handle the ground, but I still struggle to see him having enough pace to be hitting the frame.

Monkey Kingdom – Was given a terrible ride when 3rd in the Ffos Las mud on his hunter chase debut and then ran no sort of race at Ludlow on his next start. He is probably better than he has shown in hunter chases so far, but he probably isn’t as good as his BHA rating suggests.

Need To Know – Was well beaten at Cheltenham and likely to be a similar story here.

Night Alliance – Took advantage of some suspect rides to win in the Ffos Las mud in February, but he was well beaten behind Mendip Express at Warwick and he pulled up at Ludlow last time. The more rain the better for him though.

Ockey De Neulliac – Was still running a big race when falling at Valentines in this last year and was back to form when just failing to hold Robbie at Carlisle last time. Been a great servant since connections picked him up a couple of years ago and capable of giving a bold showing, but doubt he will be quite good enough to hit the frame.

On The Fringe – Has to go down as one of the best hunter chasers there has ever been as he was given a great ride by Nina to win his 2nd Cheltenham Foxhunter. Now he wasn’t as impressive as last year and he looked to have a hard race which might not help him. The other view you could take is that he had clearly come on for his seasonal debut and another run might bring about further improvement. The problem is although very few horses have a serious claim you are still taking 7/4 about a horse over the Grand National fences. The other point is that although Jamie Codd is a good jockey, I do view it as a negative that Nina is suspended for the ride. He might well do the double double and in many ways I hope he does, but there looks like being some e/w value against him.

Pacha Du Polder – His performance at Cheltenham was discussed more than the winner's! My view on it was Victoria gave him a cracking ride. Everyone had drummed it into her that the horse had little chance of staying so she was so focussed on preserving the horse’s stamina so they could finish the race. Now obviously she had more horse underneath her and a more experienced jockey would have realised this sooner and made their move earlier. It is no surprise though that given her lack of race riding experience she wanted to do what she was told. He was flying up the hill and there is every chance he feels like he hasn’t had a race as he wasn’t put under any pressure at all. Will Biddick takes over and he was a very good 2nd in this last year with Will on top. He would probably prefer better ground, but it was soft when he won at Wincanton last month and it was soft when he was 2nd to Teaforthree at Bangor last year. He has a massive chance again.

Richmond – Well beaten at Cheltenham last time and although 2nd to Mendip Express at Warwick in January he was comfortably beaten.

Sam Cavellaro – Was an 8L 2nd to Pacha Du Polder at 125/1 at Ludlow last March and then went on to win over 2m at Cheltenham’s hunter chase night. That form is below what would be required here and he showed little when pulling up at Ludlow on his seasonal debut.

Swallows Delight – Will be outclassed in this.

Summary – It may sound boring, but it is rather hard to see anything other than one of the front four in the market taking this. On The Fringe could well win again, but it is hard to think he is value at the prices. I think their is a fair chance that Pacha Du Polder can reverse the form with him especially as he looks to have a little bit more stamina than he did last year. Marasonnien missed Cheltenham and that could work in his favour. He looked to retain plenty of his old ability in his last two wins and he looks just the type who will take to the course. If Katie Walsh did get off him to ride Current Event then that is certainly a pointer to his chances and this is his trip. No doubt some bookies will be going 4 places and I am more than happy to back all three of them as if they all got round safely they could easily finish in the first four places.

Pacha Du Polder 1.5pts
Marasonnien 1.5pts e/w
Current Event 1pt e/w

Bound For Glory – Ran a superb race to finish 5th in this last season, but the ground will be softer on this occasion and that caught him out when a disappointing 6th at Ludlow last time.

Clonbanan Lad – Made a solid hunter chase debut when a 17L 3rd behind Mendip Express at Warwick, and then ran well at Sandown in the Royal Artillery Gold Cup before his stamina ran out. He was a good 2nd in a strong hunter chase at Leicester last month and then won a lesser contest in easy enough style at Fakenham last time. Could run a nice race as he is in decent form this season, but the level of that form is below what is needed to win this.

Cottage Oak – Finished 5th and 8th in this race in the past, but firmly on the downgrade now.

Current Event – A really interesting contender especially as connections have booked Katie Walsh for the ride. This is the ideal trip for him as he proved last season when winning at Cheltenham’s hunter chase night in impressive style, and then when scoring in the only handicap hunter chase of the season at Newton Abbot. He has just had the two runs this season and, whilst he was possibly a fortunate winner of his point on seasonal debut, he put in a super effort to finish 4th at Cheltenham. I thought Will Biddick gave him a very good ride that day and that, combined with the slow pace, meant he was able to stay better than he would have done in a strongly run race. He unseated in this last year at the 7th so it was way too early to know how we would have got on, but he has the ability to be bang there if getting round this time around. He has won on soft ground, so the ground shouldn’t be a concern for him

Current Exchange – Ran much better than I thought he would when 9th at Cheltenham, but I would be surprised if he did better than that over this shorter trip.

Daymar Bay – Caused a massive shock when winning at 50/1 at Ludlow last month. Didn’t appear to be a fluke as he did it well, but would need to step up again to be winning this.

Dineur – Finished 2nd in both his hunter chase runs at Ffos Las and at Leicester. They were fair efforts, but a long way below what is needed to win this.

Doubledisdoubledat – Trainer won this with 100/1 shot Tartan Snow in 2013, but this horse should be an even bigger price based on his two runs this season.

Forge Valley – Going to be very outclassed in this.

Fort George – 13 and firmly on the downgrade.

Fredo – Made a decent enough hunter chase debut at Musselburgh when 2nd to Kelpht, but disappointed when only 5th at Warwick on his next start, and unlikely he will be good enough.

Major Malarkey – Ran pretty well in this last year to finish 4th given the trip is not long enough for him, and showed up well for a long way at Cheltenham when he was enterprisingly ridden. Could run well again, but will likely get himself too far back before staying on and finishing in the top half of the field.

Marasonnien – He won a Grade 1 novice hurdle at the 2012 Punchestown Festival and he seems to have retained a fair bit of ability. He was disappointing in his first two points, but they were his first runs since April 2013. He then beat Salsify in really good style in a hunter chase at Gowran last month, before easily reversing form with Luska Lad, who had beaten him in February, in a point. Katie Walsh has ridden him the last two times and I don’t know if there is anything to read in the fact she has chosen to ride Current Event this time around. He clearly stays well, but he has won over shorter in the past and he doesn’t look short of pace. Crucially he also handles cut in the ground. He looks to have a very good chance and it could be a plus he missed Cheltenham.

Mendip Express – Didn’t take to the fences straight away when he ran in the 2014 Becher Chase, but eventually found his stride to finish 2nd. The slow pace didn’t suit him at Cheltenham and he struggled to get involved and finished 8th in the end. There will be a stronger pace here and he does handle the ground, but I still struggle to see him having enough pace to be hitting the frame.

Monkey Kingdom – Was given a terrible ride when 3rd in the Ffos Las mud on his hunter chase debut and then ran no sort of race at Ludlow on his next start. He is probably better than he has shown in hunter chases so far, but he probably isn’t as good as his BHA rating suggests.

Need To Know – Was well beaten at Cheltenham and likely to be a similar story here.

Night Alliance – Took advantage of some suspect rides to win in the Ffos Las mud in February, but he was well beaten behind Mendip Express at Warwick and he pulled up at Ludlow last time. The more rain the better for him though.

Ockey De Neulliac – Was still running a big race when falling at Valentines in this last year and was back to form when just failing to hold Robbie at Carlisle last time. Been a great servant since connections picked him up a couple of years ago and capable of giving a bold showing, but doubt he will be quite good enough to hit the frame.

On The Fringe – Has to go down as one of the best hunter chasers there has ever been as he was given a great ride by Nina to win his 2nd Cheltenham Foxhunter. Now he wasn’t as impressive as last year and he looked to have a hard race which might not help him. The other view you could take is that he had clearly come on for his seasonal debut and another run might bring about further improvement. The problem is although very few horses have a serious claim you are still taking 7/4 about a horse over the Grand National fences. The other point is that although Jamie Codd is a good jockey, I do view it as a negative that Nina is suspended for the ride. He might well do the double double and in many ways I hope he does, but there looks like being some e/w value against him.

Pacha Du Polder – His performance at Cheltenham was discussed more than the winner's! My view on it was Victoria gave him a cracking ride. Everyone had drummed it into her that the horse had little chance of staying so she was so focussed on preserving the horse’s stamina so they could finish the race. Now obviously she had more horse underneath her and a more experienced jockey would have realised this sooner and made their move earlier. It is no surprise though that given her lack of race riding experience she wanted to do what she was told. He was flying up the hill and there is every chance he feels like he hasn’t had a race as he wasn’t put under any pressure at all. Will Biddick takes over and he was a very good 2nd in this last year with Will on top. He would probably prefer better ground, but it was soft when he won at Wincanton last month and it was soft when he was 2nd to Teaforthree at Bangor last year. He has a massive chance again.

Richmond – Well beaten at Cheltenham last time and although 2nd to Mendip Express at Warwick in January he was comfortably beaten.

Sam Cavellaro – Was an 8L 2nd to Pacha Du Polder at 125/1 at Ludlow last March and then went on to win over 2m at Cheltenham’s hunter chase night. That form is below what would be required here and he showed little when pulling up at Ludlow on his seasonal debut.

Swallows Delight – Will be outclassed in this.

Summary – It may sound boring, but it is rather hard to see anything other than one of the front four in the market taking this. On The Fringe could well win again, but it is hard to think he is value at the prices. I think their is a fair chance that Pacha Du Polder can reverse the form with him especially as he looks to have a little bit more stamina than he did last year. Marasonnien missed Cheltenham and that could work in his favour. He looked to retain plenty of his old ability in his last two wins and he looks just the type who will take to the course. If Katie Walsh did get off him to ride Current Event then that is certainly a pointer to his chances and this is his trip. No doubt some bookies will be going 4 places and I am more than happy to back all three of them as if they all got round safely they could easily finish in the first four places.

Pacha Du Polder 1.5pts
Marasonnien 1.5pts e/w
Current Event 1pt e/w

Bound For Glory – Ran a superb race to finish 5th in this last season, but the ground will be softer on this occasion and that caught him out when a disappointing 6th at Ludlow last time.

Clonbanan Lad – Made a solid hunter chase debut when a 17L 3rd behind Mendip Express at Warwick, and then ran well at Sandown in the Royal Artillery Gold Cup before his stamina ran out. He was a good 2nd in a strong hunter chase at Leicester last month and then won a lesser contest in easy enough style at Fakenham last time. Could run a nice race as he is in decent form this season, but the level of that form is below what is needed to win this.

Cottage Oak – Finished 5th and 8th in this race in the past, but firmly on the downgrade now.

Current Event – A really interesting contender especially as connections have booked Katie Walsh for the ride. This is the ideal trip for him as he proved last season when winning at Cheltenham’s hunter chase night in impressive style, and then when scoring in the only handicap hunter chase of the season at Newton Abbot. He has just had the two runs this season and, whilst he was possibly a fortunate winner of his point on seasonal debut, he put in a super effort to finish 4th at Cheltenham. I thought Will Biddick gave him a very good ride that day and that, combined with the slow pace, meant he was able to stay better than he would have done in a strongly run race. He unseated in this last year at the 7th so it was way too early to know how we would have got on, but he has the ability to be bang there if getting round this time around. He has won on soft ground, so the ground shouldn’t be a concern for him

Current Exchange – Ran much better than I thought he would when 9th at Cheltenham, but I would be surprised if he did better than that over this shorter trip.

Daymar Bay – Caused a massive shock when winning at 50/1 at Ludlow last month. Didn’t appear to be a fluke as he did it well, but would need to step up again to be winning this.

Dineur – Finished 2nd in both his hunter chase runs at Ffos Las and at Leicester. They were fair efforts, but a long way below what is needed to win this.

Doubledisdoubledat – Trainer won this with 100/1 shot Tartan Snow in 2013, but this horse should be an even bigger price based on his two runs this season.

Forge Valley – Going to be very outclassed in this.

Fort George – 13 and firmly on the downgrade.

Fredo – Made a decent enough hunter chase debut at Musselburgh when 2nd to Kelpht, but disappointed when only 5th at Warwick on his next start, and unlikely he will be good enough.

Major Malarkey – Ran pretty well in this last year to finish 4th given the trip is not long enough for him, and showed up well for a long way at Cheltenham when he was enterprisingly ridden. Could run well again, but will likely get himself too far back before staying on and finishing in the top half of the field.

Marasonnien – He won a Grade 1 novice hurdle at the 2012 Punchestown Festival and he seems to have retained a fair bit of ability. He was disappointing in his first two points, but they were his first runs since April 2013. He then beat Salsify in really good style in a hunter chase at Gowran last month, before easily reversing form with Luska Lad, who had beaten him in February, in a point. Katie Walsh has ridden him the last two times and I don’t know if there is anything to read in the fact she has chosen to ride Current Event this time around. He clearly stays well, but he has won over shorter in the past and he doesn’t look short of pace. Crucially he also handles cut in the ground. He looks to have a very good chance and it could be a plus he missed Cheltenham.

Mendip Express – Didn’t take to the fences straight away when he ran in the 2014 Becher Chase, but eventually found his stride to finish 2nd. The slow pace didn’t suit him at Cheltenham and he struggled to get involved and finished 8th in the end. There will be a stronger pace here and he does handle the ground, but I still struggle to see him having enough pace to be hitting the frame.

Monkey Kingdom – Was given a terrible ride when 3rd in the Ffos Las mud on his hunter chase debut and then ran no sort of race at Ludlow on his next start. He is probably better than he has shown in hunter chases so far, but he probably isn’t as good as his BHA rating suggests.

Need To Know – Was well beaten at Cheltenham and likely to be a similar story here.

Night Alliance – Took advantage of some suspect rides to win in the Ffos Las mud in February, but he was well beaten behind Mendip Express at Warwick and he pulled up at Ludlow last time. The more rain the better for him though.

Ockey De Neulliac – Was still running a big race when falling at Valentines in this last year and was back to form when just failing to hold Robbie at Carlisle last time. Been a great servant since connections picked him up a couple of years ago and capable of giving a bold showing, but doubt he will be quite good enough to hit the frame.

On The Fringe – Has to go down as one of the best hunter chasers there has ever been as he was given a great ride by Nina to win his 2nd Cheltenham Foxhunter. Now he wasn’t as impressive as last year and he looked to have a hard race which might not help him. The other view you could take is that he had clearly come on for his seasonal debut and another run might bring about further improvement. The problem is although very few horses have a serious claim you are still taking 7/4 about a horse over the Grand National fences. The other point is that although Jamie Codd is a good jockey, I do view it as a negative that Nina is suspended for the ride. He might well do the double double and in many ways I hope he does, but there looks like being some e/w value against him.

Pacha Du Polder – His performance at Cheltenham was discussed more than the winner's! My view on it was Victoria gave him a cracking ride. Everyone had drummed it into her that the horse had little chance of staying so she was so focussed on preserving the horse’s stamina so they could finish the race. Now obviously she had more horse underneath her and a more experienced jockey would have realised this sooner and made their move earlier. It is no surprise though that given her lack of race riding experience she wanted to do what she was told. He was flying up the hill and there is every chance he feels like he hasn’t had a race as he wasn’t put under any pressure at all. Will Biddick takes over and he was a very good 2nd in this last year with Will on top. He would probably prefer better ground, but it was soft when he won at Wincanton last month and it was soft when he was 2nd to Teaforthree at Bangor last year. He has a massive chance again.

Richmond – Well beaten at Cheltenham last time and although 2nd to Mendip Express at Warwick in January he was comfortably beaten.

Sam Cavellaro – Was an 8L 2nd to Pacha Du Polder at 125/1 at Ludlow last March and then went on to win over 2m at Cheltenham’s hunter chase night. That form is below what would be required here and he showed little when pulling up at Ludlow on his seasonal debut.

Swallows Delight – Will be outclassed in this.

Summary – It may sound boring, but it is rather hard to see anything other than one of the front four in the market taking this. On The Fringe could well win again, but it is hard to think he is value at the prices. I think their is a fair chance that Pacha Du Polder can reverse the form with him especially as he looks to have a little bit more stamina than he did last year. Marasonnien missed Cheltenham and that could work in his favour. He looked to retain plenty of his old ability in his last two wins and he looks just the type who will take to the course. If Katie Walsh did get off him to ride Current Event then that is certainly a pointer to his chances and this is his trip. No doubt some bookies will be going 4 places and I am more than happy to back all three of them as if they all got round safely they could easily finish in the first four places.

Pacha Du Polder 1.5pts
Marasonnien 1.5pts e/w
Current Event 1pt e/w