Aintree day 1 Thursday 7th april

[richard-westwood]

Just finishing day 1 ratings ....not a lot of value actually as many horses performed well at chelt fest so bookies aren't going to take many chances meaningnodds will be very cramped ....best chance of a decent winner will be the big open races ......

Red rum chase 

Pearls legend   99.34

Workbench    99.31

Dandridge   99.30 

Solar impulse   99.30 

Incredibly open race and even though no betting yet I'd imagine solar impulse will be strong fav and probably well deserved ....the grand annual usually has a big influence on what happens hbut not necessarily winners who usually get penalised heavily as solar impulse has ....nothing to say he can't win but a 9lb penalty in such a competitive race is a big negative ....you take your pick with other 3 as they are closely matched and all 3 I'd imagine will be decent ew oddsbut pearls legend looks the one to be on for me .....ran ok in grand annual and has ground to make up on solar impulse which will enhance the price ...don't think things went right that day and hcapper has took pity and dropped1lb ......I think this horse is better than that and may even had this as his target as he finished 3rd in this last year and horses that placed in previous renewals have very good ew records the following year so an ew bet pearls legend is my bet as soon as prices come online 

Edited April 5, 2016 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

On 5 April 2016 at 09:18:05, richard-westwood said:

Just finishing day 1 ratings ....not a lot of value actually as many horses performed well at chelt fest so bookies aren't going to take many chances meaningnodds will be very cramped ....best chance of a decent winner will be the big open races ......

Red rum chase 

Pearls legend   99.34

Workbench    99.31

Dandridge   99.30 

Solar impulse   99.30 

Incredibly open race and even though no betting yet I'd imagine solar impulse will be strong fav and probably well deserved ....the grand annual usually has a big influence on what happens hbut not necessarily winners who usually get penalised heavily as solar impulse has ....nothing to say he can't win but a 9lb penalty in such a competitive race is a big negative ....you take your pick with other 3 as they are closely matched and all 3 I'd imagine will be decent ew oddsbut pearls legend looks the one to be on for me .....ran ok in grand annual and has ground to make up on solar impulse which will enhance the price ...don't think things went right that day and hcapper has took pity and dropped1lb ......I think this horse is better than that and may even had this as his target as he finished 3rd in this last year and horses that placed in previous renewals have very good ew records the following year so an ew bet pearls legend is my bet as soon as prices come online 

Dandridge is well fancied around 13/2 so looks dangerous and should run well but im sticking with pearls legend ...generally around 10-1 paddyp have slipped up offering 14,s ill have some of that just one bet day 1 so ill go nice ew

pearls legend. 10 pts ew 14/1 pp

[BillyHills]

Day 1 previews;

Fox Hunter Chase

Pacha Du Polder 7/2 Paddy Power

Betfred Bowl

Cue Card 5/4 Skybet

Aintree Hurdle

Nicholls Canyon EW 5/1 Betway

[Darran]

Bound For Glory – Ran a superb race to finish 5th in this last season, but the ground will be softer on this occasion and that caught him out when a disappointing 6th at Ludlow last time.

Clonbanan Lad – Made a solid hunter chase debut when a 17L 3rd behind Mendip Express at Warwick, and then ran well at Sandown in the Royal Artillery Gold Cup before his stamina ran out. He was a good 2nd in a strong hunter chase at Leicester last month and then won a lesser contest in easy enough style at Fakenham last time. Could run a nice race as he is in decent form this season, but the level of that form is below what is needed to win this.

Cottage Oak – Finished 5th and 8th in this race in the past, but firmly on the downgrade now.

Current Event – A really interesting contender especially as connections have booked Katie Walsh for the ride. This is the ideal trip for him as he proved last season when winning at Cheltenham’s hunter chase night in impressive style, and then when scoring in the only handicap hunter chase of the season at Newton Abbot. He has just had the two runs this season and, whilst he was possibly a fortunate winner of his point on seasonal debut, he put in a super effort to finish 4th at Cheltenham. I thought Will Biddick gave him a very good ride that day and that, combined with the slow pace, meant he was able to stay better than he would have done in a strongly run race. He unseated in this last year at the 7th so it was way too early to know how we would have got on, but he has the ability to be bang there if getting round this time around. He has won on soft ground, so the ground shouldn’t be a concern for him

Current Exchange – Ran much better than I thought he would when 9th at Cheltenham, but I would be surprised if he did better than that over this shorter trip.

Daymar Bay – Caused a massive shock when winning at 50/1 at Ludlow last month. Didn’t appear to be a fluke as he did it well, but would need to step up again to be winning this.

Dineur – Finished 2nd in both his hunter chase runs at Ffos Las and at Leicester. They were fair efforts, but a long way below what is needed to win this.

Doubledisdoubledat – Trainer won this with 100/1 shot Tartan Snow in 2013, but this horse should be an even bigger price based on his two runs this season.

Forge Valley – Going to be very outclassed in this.

Fort George – 13 and firmly on the downgrade.

Fredo – Made a decent enough hunter chase debut at Musselburgh when 2nd to Kelpht, but disappointed when only 5th at Warwick on his next start, and unlikely he will be good enough.

Major Malarkey – Ran pretty well in this last year to finish 4th given the trip is not long enough for him, and showed up well for a long way at Cheltenham when he was enterprisingly ridden. Could run well again, but will likely get himself too far back before staying on and finishing in the top half of the field.

Marasonnien – He won a Grade 1 novice hurdle at the 2012 Punchestown Festival and he seems to have retained a fair bit of ability. He was disappointing in his first two points, but they were his first runs since April 2013. He then beat Salsify in really good style in a hunter chase at Gowran last month, before easily reversing form with Luska Lad, who had beaten him in February, in a point. Katie Walsh has ridden him the last two times and I don’t know if there is anything to read in the fact she has chosen to ride Current Event this time around. He clearly stays well, but he has won over shorter in the past and he doesn’t look short of pace. Crucially he also handles cut in the ground. He looks to have a very good chance and it could be a plus he missed Cheltenham.

Mendip Express – Didn’t take to the fences straight away when he ran in the 2014 Becher Chase, but eventually found his stride to finish 2nd. The slow pace didn’t suit him at Cheltenham and he struggled to get involved and finished 8th in the end. There will be a stronger pace here and he does handle the ground, but I still struggle to see him having enough pace to be hitting the frame.

Monkey Kingdom – Was given a terrible ride when 3rd in the Ffos Las mud on his hunter chase debut and then ran no sort of race at Ludlow on his next start. He is probably better than he has shown in hunter chases so far, but he probably isn’t as good as his BHA rating suggests.

Need To Know – Was well beaten at Cheltenham and likely to be a similar story here.

Night Alliance – Took advantage of some suspect rides to win in the Ffos Las mud in February, but he was well beaten behind Mendip Express at Warwick and he pulled up at Ludlow last time. The more rain the better for him though.

Ockey De Neulliac – Was still running a big race when falling at Valentines in this last year and was back to form when just failing to hold Robbie at Carlisle last time. Been a great servant since connections picked him up a couple of years ago and capable of giving a bold showing, but doubt he will be quite good enough to hit the frame.

On The Fringe – Has to go down as one of the best hunter chasers there has ever been as he was given a great ride by Nina to win his 2nd Cheltenham Foxhunter. Now he wasn’t as impressive as last year and he looked to have a hard race which might not help him. The other view you could take is that he had clearly come on for his seasonal debut and another run might bring about further improvement. The problem is although very few horses have a serious claim you are still taking 7/4 about a horse over the Grand National fences. The other point is that although Jamie Codd is a good jockey, I do view it as a negative that Nina is suspended for the ride. He might well do the double double and in many ways I hope he does, but there looks like being some e/w value against him.

Pacha Du Polder – His performance at Cheltenham was discussed more than the winner's! My view on it was Victoria gave him a cracking ride. Everyone had drummed it into her that the horse had little chance of staying so she was so focussed on preserving the horse’s stamina so they could finish the race. Now obviously she had more horse underneath her and a more experienced jockey would have realised this sooner and made their move earlier. It is no surprise though that given her lack of race riding experience she wanted to do what she was told. He was flying up the hill and there is every chance he feels like he hasn’t had a race as he wasn’t put under any pressure at all. Will Biddick takes over and he was a very good 2nd in this last year with Will on top. He would probably prefer better ground, but it was soft when he won at Wincanton last month and it was soft when he was 2nd to Teaforthree at Bangor last year. He has a massive chance again.

Richmond – Well beaten at Cheltenham last time and although 2nd to Mendip Express at Warwick in January he was comfortably beaten.

Sam Cavellaro – Was an 8L 2nd to Pacha Du Polder at 125/1 at Ludlow last March and then went on to win over 2m at Cheltenham’s hunter chase night. That form is below what would be required here and he showed little when pulling up at Ludlow on his seasonal debut.

Swallows Delight – Will be outclassed in this.

Summary – It may sound boring, but it is rather hard to see anything other than one of the front four in the market taking this. On The Fringe could well win again, but it is hard to think he is value at the prices. I think their is a fair chance that Pacha Du Polder can reverse the form with him especially as he looks to have a little bit more stamina than he did last year. Marasonnien missed Cheltenham and that could work in his favour. He looked to retain plenty of his old ability in his last two wins and he looks just the type who will take to the course. If Katie Walsh did get off him to ride Current Event then that is certainly a pointer to his chances and this is his trip. No doubt some bookies will be going 4 places and I am more than happy to back all three of them as if they all got round safely they could easily finish in the first four places.

Pacha Du Polder 1.5pts
Marasonnien 1.5pts e/w
Current Event 1pt e/w

[BillyHills]

Three for today

Preview

2.15 Aintree:  Ivanovich Gorbatov @ 5/4 Paddy Power

4.30 Taunton:  Sir Ivan EW @ 9/2 Bet365

4.40 Aintree: Pearls Legend EW @12/1 Betway

[Steve75]

3.35 Southwell Ruler Of The Nile please.

Thanks.