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ExcitableBoy

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Posts posted by ExcitableBoy

  1. Sorry, I haven't had time to get on this today. Here are today's selections, for completeness I'm shoeing three who have already run, but I won't include in the stats. A couple of winning lays yesterday. 

     

    No bet over 5.0!!!

     

    TimeTrackHorseBFSPResult
    13:10:00FakenhamEmmy Lou (IRE)6.2L
    13:10:00FakenhamGilzean (IRE)7.56L
    13:10:00FakenhamWily Fox4.23L
    13:20:00NottinghamSigned And Sealed5L
    13:20:00NottinghamSo Celebre (GER)2.72L
    13:30:00Chelmsford CityLady Lloyd  
    13:40:00FakenhamMiami Present (IRE)  
    13:40:00FakenhamOutrath (IRE)  
    13:50:00NottinghamQ Ten Girl (IRE)  
    13:50:00NottinghamSky Ferry  
    14:00:00Chelmsford CitySpace Artist (IRE)  
    14:30:00Chelmsford CityUpavon  
    14:30:00Chelmsford CityVarsovian  
    14:40:00FakenhamMoney For Nothing  
    14:40:00FakenhamSportsreport (IRE)  
    14:50:00NottinghamAl  
    15:00:00Chelmsford CityAleator (USA)  
    15:10:00FakenhamEnnisnag (IRE)  
    15:20:00NottinghamIndian Tinker  
    15:30:00Chelmsford CityGoodnightsuzy (IRE)  
    15:40:00FakenhamVesuvhill (FR)  
    15:50:00NottinghamMagnolia Ridge (IRE)  
    15:50:00NottinghamOutlaw Torn (IRE)  
    15:50:00NottinghamCabuchon (GER)  
    16:20:00NottinghamNonagon  
    16:30:00Chelmsford CityBen Hall (IRE)  
    16:30:00Chelmsford CityBogsnog (IRE)  
    16:30:00Chelmsford CityRialto Magic  
  2. Tuesday's Selections:

    TimeTrackHorseOdds 
    13:30:00LingfieldEnnaadd2.98 
    15:10:00LingfieldNaizah (IRE)3.6 
    15:25:00PunchestownFine Article (IRE)4.7 
    15:50:00CatterickTarando4.6 
    17:10:00WolverhamptonFrank The Barber (IRE)5.8 
    19:10:00WolverhamptonLacey4.1 
         
  3. Monday Results:

    TimeTrackHorseOddsResultP/L
    13:20:00LeicesterZaza Zest (IRE)2.42L0.95
    13:35:00WexfordPrince Kup (IRE)5.55LOutside Range
    13:50:00LeicesterRobert The Painter (IRE)3.73L0.95
    13:55:00GalwayCaptain Von Trappe (IRE)1.63W-0.63
    14:05:00RedcarSoldier In Action (FR)2.48L0.95
    14:15:00AyrLove The Leader (IRE)3.3W-2.3
    14:15:00AyrAndhaar3.7L0.95
    14:15:00AyrFarragon (IRE)5.88LOutside Range
    14:25:00LeicesterHillside Dream (IRE)2.71L0.95
    15:35:00GalwayBaily Cloud (IRE)5W-4
    15:55:00AyrJack Steel (IRE)2.47W-1.47
    16:20:00WexfordTuzo (IRE)3.13W-2.13
          
       Loss on Day -5.78
  4. Monday's Selections:

    TimeTrackHorseOdds
    13:20:00LeicesterZaza Zest (IRE)2.08
    13:35:00WexfordPrince Kup (IRE)4.2
    13:50:00LeicesterRobert The Painter (IRE)3.5
    13:55:00GalwayCaptain Von Trappe (IRE)2.34
    14:05:00RedcarSoldier In Action (FR)2.48
    14:15:00AyrLove The Leader (IRE)3.45
    14:15:00AyrAndhaar4.6
    14:15:00AyrFarragon (IRE)4.9
    14:25:00LeicesterHillside Dream (IRE)3.75
    15:35:00GalwayBaily Cloud (IRE)4.4
    15:55:00AyrJack Steel (IRE)3.45
    16:20:00WexfordTuzo (IRE)2.96
  5. Losing Day yesterday :\ :

    TimeTrackHorseBFSPResult 
    13:55:00AintreeGone Forever12.5LOutside Range
    14:05:00GalwayMy Direction10.96LOutside Range
    14:15:00WincantonUncle Tone (IRE)6.2LOutside Range
    14:20:00LeopardstownSovereign Debt (IRE)4.94W-3.94
    15:05:00GalwayDramatic Event (IRE)3.03L0.95
    15:45:00WincantonWade Harper (IRE)2L0.95
    16:35:00AintreeLa Bague Au Roi (FR)3.12W-2.12
          
       Loss on Day: -4.16
          
  6. Sunday's selections (NO BET IF UNDER 5.0 BFSP):

    TimeTrackHorse
       
    13:55:00AintreeGone Forever
    14:05:00GalwayMy Direction
    14:15:00WincantonUncle Tone (IRE)
    14:20:00LeopardstownSovereign Debt (IRE)
    15:05:00GalwayDramatic Event (IRE)
    15:45:00WincantonWade Harper (IRE)
    16:35:00AintreeLa Bague Au Roi (FR)
  7. Saturday's Results:

    TimeTrackHorseBFSPResultP/L
    13:50:00NewburyZonderland3.13L0.95
    13:55:00KelsoTowerburn (IRE)12.63LOutside Range
    14:10:00CheltenhamBoondooma (IRE)9.49WOutside Range
    14:25:00NewburyRawaki (IRE)10.88LOutside Range
    14:30:00KelsoRacing Europe (IRE)3.54L0.95
    14:55:00LeopardstownTorcedor (IRE)5.47LOutside Range
    15:10:00DoncasterStorm Force Ten5.83LOutside Range
    15:30:00LeopardstownBlue De Vega (GER)2.52W-1.52
    15:35:00NewburyAlamode4.28L0.95
    15:40:00KelsoBaraboy (IRE)11.5LOutside Range
    15:50:00WexfordCoolbane West (IRE)13LOutside Range
    15:55:00CheltenhamAtlantic Gold (IRE)5.17WOutside Range
    15:55:00CheltenhamTradewinds (FR)7.62LOutside Range
    16:05:00LeopardstownFire Tree (IRE)12LOutside Range
    16:15:00KelsoOscar Blue (IRE)2.04W-1.04
    16:20:00DoncasterMystic Miraaj6.6LOutside Range
    16:25:00WexfordMarvellous Moment (IRE)3.72L0.95
    16:40:00LeopardstownLaganore (IRE)5.68WOutside Range
    16:50:00KelsoThe Ice Factor13.84LOutside Range
    17:05:00CheltenhamSky Khan20LOutside Range
    17:05:00CheltenhamSlim Pickens (IRE)11.29LOutside Range
    17:15:00LeopardstownWhatsforuwontgobyu (IRE)9.24LOutside Range
    17:35:00WexfordCashelard Lady (IRE)11.29WOutside Range
    17:40:00CheltenhamFountains Windfall4.8L0.95
    18:40:00Chelmsford CityKing Cole (USA)1.8W-0.8
    20:40:00Chelmsford CityDoctor Kehoe3.28L0.95
    20:40:00Chelmsford CityPeeps8.92LOutside Range
    21:10:00Chelmsford CityBubbly Bailey18.06LOutside Range
          
       Day Profit 2.34
    Bets30 Start Bank100
    Wins23 Profit/Loss7.71
    S/R76.70%    
    Av Odds3.7 Bank 107.71
    Av Win Odds3.91    
  8. I have sightly tweaked the selection criteria today as when I analysed last night I discovered one category was underperforming really badly. I'm very early again so these are forecast prices which seem to mean nothing.

    - NO BET UNDER 5.0 BFSP!!!!

     

    TimeTrackHorseF/C Odds
    13:50:00NewburyZonderland3
    13:55:00KelsoTowerburn (IRE)6
    14:10:00CheltenhamBoondooma (IRE)3.5
    14:25:00NewburyRawaki (IRE)4
    14:30:00KelsoRacing Europe (IRE)6
    14:55:00LeopardstownTorcedor (IRE)2.5
    15:10:00DoncasterStorm Force Ten5.5
    15:30:00LeopardstownBlue De Vega (GER)2.5
    15:35:00NewburyAlamode2.25
    15:40:00KelsoBaraboy (IRE)6
    15:50:00WexfordCoolbane West (IRE)5
    15:55:00CheltenhamAtlantic Gold (IRE)4
    15:55:00CheltenhamTradewinds (FR)5
    16:05:00LeopardstownFire Tree (IRE)5
    16:15:00KelsoOscar Blue (IRE)2
    16:20:00DoncasterMystic Miraaj4.5
    16:25:00WexfordMarvellous Moment (IRE)2
    16:40:00LeopardstownLaganore (IRE)3
    16:50:00KelsoThe Ice Factor3.5
    17:05:00CheltenhamSky Khan6
    17:05:00CheltenhamSlim Pickens (IRE)4.5
    17:15:00LeopardstownWhatsforuwontgobyu (IRE)6
    17:35:00WexfordCashelard Lady (IRE)6
    17:40:00CheltenhamFountains Windfall4
    18:40:00Chelmsford CityKing Cole (USA)4
    20:40:00Chelmsford CityDoctor Kehoe2
    20:40:00Chelmsford CityPeeps5
    21:10:00Chelmsford CityBubbly Bailey6
  9. This evening's results:

    TimeTrackHorseBFSPResultP/L
    18:35:00DundalkAye Aye Skipper (IRE)4.79L0.95
    19:50:00WolverhamptonZed Candy Girl6.1LOutside Range
    20:05:00DundalkTake Cover4.56W-3.56
    20:50:00WolverhamptonMinstrel Lad4.61L0.95
    21:05:00DundalkMaknificent (IRE)4.94L0.95
    21:05:00DundalkTalented Kid4.77L0.95
          
        Profit0.24
  10. Selections for this evening (Over 5.0 at BFSP THEN NO BET): 
        
    TimeTrackHorseOdds
    18:35:00DundalkAye Aye Skipper (IRE)4
    19:50:00WolverhamptonZed Candy Girl4.9
    20:05:00DundalkTake Cover4.3
    20:50:00WolverhamptonMinstrel Lad5.5
    21:05:00DundalkMaknificent (IRE)3.15
    21:05:00DundalkTalented Kid5.5
        
  11. Results from this afternoon:

    TimeTrackHorseBFSPResultP/L
    13:30:00DoncasterScarlet Dragon9.82LOutside Range
    13:50:00NewburyBedrock3.7W-2.7
    14:10:00CheltenhamExxaro (IRE)3.63L0.95
    14:45:00CheltenhamSizing Codelco (IRE)4N/R N/R
    15:00:00NewburyMissy Blue Eyes7.63LOutside Range
    15:00:00NewburySilken Skies (IRE)9.4LOutside Range
    15:35:00NewburyMill Point21.6LOutside Range
    16:10:00NewburyPredominance (IRE)5.12LOutside Range
    16:20:00DoncasterNewera10.76LOutside Range
    16:45:00NewburyVictory Bond18.9LOutside Range
    16:55:00DoncasterClovelly Bay (IRE)4.81L0.95
    17:05:00CheltenhamTop Cat Henry (IRE)4.2L0.95
    17:15:00NewburyMedburn Cutler9.6LOutside Range
    17:15:00NewburyThe Ducking Stool14WOutside Range
    17:30:00DoncasterGone Viral (IRE)4.33L0.95
    17:30:00DoncasterMoojaned (IRE)21.7WOutside Range
          
    Bets16  Day P/L+1.1
    Wins13  Start Bank100
    Strike Rate81.20%  Total P/L5.13
    Av. Odds3.64    
    Av. W Odds3.69  Bank105.13
  12. I'm rather early with this today as I'm in a rush.

    The odds below are forecast and there are a lot around the cutoff point. NO BET IF BFSP IS OVER 5.0.

    I will look at this evening's racing later in the day.

     

    TimeTrackHorseF/C Odds
    13:30:00DoncasterScarlet Dragon6
    13:50:00NewburyBedrock4.5
    14:10:00CheltenhamExxaro (IRE)4
    14:45:00CheltenhamSizing Codelco (IRE)4
    15:00:00NewburyMissy Blue Eyes6
    15:00:00NewburySilken Skies (IRE)2.25
    15:35:00NewburyMill Point6
    16:10:00NewburyPredominance (IRE)2.25
    16:20:00DoncasterNewera5
    16:45:00NewburyVictory Bond6
    16:55:00DoncasterClovelly Bay (IRE)5.5
    17:05:00CheltenhamTop Cat Henry (IRE)4
    17:15:00NewburyMedburn Cutler5.5
    17:15:00NewburyThe Ducking Stool6
    17:30:00DoncasterGone Viral (IRE)4
    17:30:00DoncasterMoojaned (IRE)6
  13. TimeTrackHorseResultBFSPP/L
    14:30:00SouthwellLarkhallW3.55-2.55
    15:15:00ThurlesBuyer Beware (IRE)L4.300.95
    15:45:00LudlowAngus GlensL2.680.95
    15:55:00CarlisleCourtown Oscar (IRE)L3.950.95
    16:05:00SouthwellStormbay Bomber (IRE)L3.960.95
    16:15:00LudlowButlergrove King (IRE)W2.97-1.97
    16:20:00ThurlesTed Veale (IRE)L2.390.95
    16:45:00LudlowGowanauthat (IRE)L3.450.95
    16:50:00ThurlesVic Approach (IRE)L2.700.95
    16:55:00CarlisleSolway LegendL4.700.95
    17:15:00LudlowMakethedifference (IRE)L2.930.95
          
       TOTAL FOR DAY4.03
  14. Selections Thursday 22 October:

    TimeTrackHorseOdds Taken
    14:30:00SouthwellLarkhall4.7
    15:15:00ThurlesBuyer Beware (IRE)3.55
    15:45:00LudlowAngus Glens2.74
    15:55:00CarlisleCourtown Oscar (IRE)3.1
    16:05:00SouthwellStormbay Bomber (IRE)3.4
    16:15:00LudlowButlergrove King (IRE)3.3
    16:20:00ThurlesTed Veale (IRE)2.46
    16:45:00LudlowGowanauthat (IRE)3.8
    16:50:00ThurlesVic Approach (IRE)2.74
    16:55:00CarlisleSolway Legend4.8
    17:15:00LudlowMakethedifference (IRE)2.76
  15. I've had a break from horseracing due to family commitments but now I'm back and I'm having a look at laying. I've never had much success laying, so be warned!

    The angle is this: I am looking at trainers who are having a barren patch who are putting out horses in races where they should have a good chance on paper. The theory is that if they are generally not doing well the horse won't be at it's best either so gives us an edge. I'm only laying under 5.0 as I've had a look at this over the last week or so and this gives me the biggest edge. I am also filtering against my own ratings which can mean that what might be an otherwise obvious pick will be excluded.

    I will try to post before 1pm and will show BF prices I have taken. In practice I'd lay to liability, but as per forum rules I'll show profit/loss to 1 unit at BFSP.

    Wish me luck!

    EB

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