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Smurf

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Posts posted by Smurf

  1. Re: Sky Bet Championship > Tuesday April 8th

    Nottingham - Sheffield Wednesday Championship England Tuesday 8/4 20:45 Prediction: Nottingham Odds: 1,93 Stake: 4/10 units Bookmaker: NordicBet Sheffield Wednesday in no mans land, nothing to play for really, and also some concerns here in centre defence as a couple of important players are out. They played quite well against Leicester but lost 2-1 away. We think that game took a lot of energy from the team. Nottingham have had a horrible few months, winless in the last 10. Incredible really, they are a capable team. Now with a few players back from injuries/suspension. Nottingham has all to play for, currently 5 points behind Reading on 6th place. We think this is a good time to back Nottingham against a Sheffield Wednesday who is weak on the road, has defensive problems and nothing to play for. A must win for Nottingham if they want to have a chance at a play-off spot!
    Hi Boggen. Firstly let me say I really enjoy your posts and think your tips are up there with the best on this site. I also agree with your reasons for backing Nottingham Forest on the fact that they need a win whereas Sheffield Wednesday do not. I'm a Sheffield Wednesday fan and while I agree with this summary to an extent, having not watched much of Forest lately I can't comment on if they are in a state to start to bounce back from their recent poor results at this moment in time. What I will say is that we looked very good on Friday night, and although we can be very inconsistent on the road recently, we either dominate the game or don't turn up. Antonio looked class on his first game back for us and his efforts were rewarded with a goal. While I will say that Forest have a lot more to play and do have a very good squad capable of turning their results around, I think the safer bet would be BTTS @ 1.83 with Bet365. Both teams have been leaking goal recently and Sheffield Wednesday have problems in defence as you highlighted, however we looked very strong going forward against Leicester, even more so with Antonio now back in the side. We could have easily scored more than the one goal against Leicester. For me I am just not sure if this is the game Forest will get their first win or not and so to me the BTTS option looks a lot more appealing. Bet - BTTS @ 1.83 with Bet365 (5/10 stakes) Also I will have small stakes on - Antonio AGS @ 6.00 with Bet365
  2. Re: Manchester United v Liverpool > Sunday March 16th

    OK so we have just seen Galatasary drop points away to a mid table team on Friday finishing 0-0. They travel away to Chelsea who have just lost 1-0 to Villa. Dortmund who host Zenit have lost 1-2 at home to Gladbach. While coincidentally Zenit themselves have lost away to CSKA 1-0.
    Galatasary have only won one of their last eight away league games so I wouldn't but their draw this weekend down to anything other than their lack of cutting edge on the road in the league. Zenit too haven't won any of their last three away league games and not to get a result against a strong CSKA Moscow side who have only lost one home league game all season and also have a stronger home form than Zenit. Again not such a surprising result. I'm not saying the Champions League does not factor into results in the league but it seems to be the games after the CL game that suffer more than the ones before in my experience.
  3. Re: Friday 3:20 > Cheltenham Gold Cup

    Cheltenham 3:20 - Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase(Grade 1) (1) 3m2f 110yds I have said that I would stay away from the favourites at Cheltenham all week and try look for some each-way value and I genuinely feel Lord Windermere is a big price here at 33/1. He has only ever had one run here at Cheltenham and what a run that was when he stayed on gamely to win the RSA Chase last year. This is obviously a lot tougher but he is going to get the trip and Davy Russell gets on well with the horse. He ran too bad to be true last time out in the Irish Hennessy but I am expecting a big run here coming back to Cheltenham, a course he clearly enjoys. LORD WINDERMERE - 1 Point each-way @ 33/1 Coral Read Full Preview @ http://www.horse-racing.org/cheltenham-gold-cup-preview-lord-windermere-can-place-with-a-repeat-of-the-rsa-run
    Great call. Glad I followed you on this :)
  4. Re: Sky Bet League 2 > January 25th - 27th

    4pts Scunthorpe vs Fleetwood - Over 2.5 goals 11/10 Paddy Power Both these sides had tough games on Saturday so we could see a couple of tired defences in this match, especially with the heavy conditions that players are having to play on at the minute. Both these sides score plenty of goals so I’m a little surprised that we’re getting odds against on over 2.5 goals, especially when both were involved in six goal thrillers just two days ago. I won’t pass those odds up. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/scunthorpe-vs-fleetwood-betting-goals-should-come-regularly-in-top-of-the-table-clash
    Before the game on Saturday Scunthorpe had not conceded a goal in their last 4 matches. For me this could be a tight game from the two promotion chasing teams.
  5. Re: Scottish Football > Saturday January 18th Livingston v Morton Livingston look great value at home to bottom of the league Morton. Livingston are on a good run of form which includes beating league leaders Dundee away from home in their last match. Morton on the other hand haven't won a game in their last 9 attempts and have not won away all season and have just the one point gained on the road. Livingston @ 1.67 with bet365 look a safe play.

  6. Re: Sky Bet League 2 > Saturday January 18th

    Any reason Scunthorpe are 4/5? I consider this to be quite high given they are top of the form table' date=' top of the league and at home to a team 21st in the form table? Anything I have missed?[/quote'] I had the same thoughts. I don't know enough about Scunthorpe's squad but that aside I can't see any other reason why they are priced so favourably.
  7. Re: England > Weekend > Skrill Prem Jan 18 Welling Utd v Woking Welling Utd are playing poorly and have only won one game out of the last 11, this was against whipping boys Dartford. They of course are now famous for being the first team that Hyde have beaten in the league this season. Woking are on a great run of form and have won 6 out of their last 8 games in the league including being the only team this season to get a win away at Halifax. To me they look great value @ 2.6. Woking to win @ 2.6 with bet365 4/10 Woking - DNB @ 1.83 with bet365 7/10 Luton Town v Wrexham Top of the table Luton host mid table Wrexham. Luton are unbeaten at home in the league this season, winning their last 9 straight league home games. They did however lose at home to second placed Cambridge Utd in the FA Trophy on Tuesday. Wrexham's record away from home reads W4 D3 L6 and their recent favourable away results include wins at toothless Dartford & Hyde and a draw at Welling Utd who are also playing poorly at the moment as highlighted above. Luton look likely winners of this years Skrill premier league and I see no reason why they won't have another fairly comfortable home win this weekend. Luton to win @ 1.70 with Bet365 5/10

  8. Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Jan 13-16

    Alfreton look a cracking price at 2/1 on the -1 handicap with Paddys. As Ships points out above Tamworth are going to tire as the game goes on you can imagine that if it is even 0-0 with an hour gone that Alfreton will get more and more chances to get a 2 goal lead as the game goes on.
    I totally agree with this and I will be backing "the half with most goals - 2nd half" @ evens with bet365.
  9. Re: Capital One Cup Semi Finals > January 7th & 8th

    ' date=' and small fun bet , what could as well save my first bet... [b']anytime own goal - yes @ 10 with paddypower, 1 % of my betting fund.. since man city will be pushing for 90 minutes to get advantage for 2nd leg and westham will be defending to save hope for 2nd leg, own goal @ 10 is possible + westham my get odd runaway or set piece what might result in man city own goal and save my bet :D
    I really, really like this call and I agree completely with your reasoning so I will be having small stakes on this too.
  10. Re: Capital One Cup Semi Finals > Tuesday January 7th

    Roger Johnson will no doubt come straight into the team and hopefully Collins will be back.
    For me this is the main reason why I fully see no doubt in Man City thrashing West Ham. As a Sheffield Wednesday fan (where Johnson has just finished on loan) I can say that Johnson is no where near the player he was when he played for Birmingham in the Premier League. His alcohol problems have got the better of him and he is a poor player even for a team like mine in the bottom half of the championship table. To go up against the best attacking team in the country could be very, very dangerous.
  11. Re: Serie A > January 5th & 6th

    Hi all, I haven't posted for a while but keeping my eye out for potential good value. As im at work the early games are a no bet for me but the Lazio v Inter game catches my attention. I specialise in Corner betting as I find it both interesting and profitable (although very fustrating at times due to the nature of the beast) Although corners are the bye product of an attack they often offer an angle on a match which would otherwise be a no-bet. Today sees struggling Lazio under a new coach but even if their form improves the one thing that could remain is the low corner make up. Recent home matches have seen them beaten on corners to lesser sides and even with a + handicap I would struggle to back them. Inter on the other hand do not usually struggle to rack up the corners. They have an attacking approach to games and an stretch the play with quick direct players such as Gaurin, Nagatomo, Palacio and Johnathan. Inter to win more Corners are avaliable at evens, 8/5 (-1) and 4/6 (+1) all Hills. I would recommend the evens for most corners and for small stakes (-1). The 4/6 (+1) might only appeal to big hitters but I would strongly reccomend the bet. Cant see Lazio winning more corners than Inter. If it finishes level on corners or with more Inter corners its a winner. Good Luck all
    I have only just seen this but Lazio have had more corners than their opponent in 3 out of their last 4 matches. In those matches they have racked up 33 corners and have only conceded 9 corners, therefore your post seems wildly inaccurate.
  12. Re: Sky Bet League 2 > Saturday January 4th Newport County have to be a good call at home to bottom of the league Northampton. Northampton have been dire all season and look completely out of their depth after promotion to league two last season. The have only won once away from home all season with no win in the league in their last 5 games. Newport County have had uninspiring defeats in the FA Cup and League Trophy last month but their league form remains good with only one defeat in their last 7 games. Newport County boast an excellent home record in the league with 1 loss, 1 draw and 7 wins from 9. Newport will also move into 5th spot in the table from their current 8th spot should they win this game due to the three sides above them all featuring in the FA Cup this weekend, which can only help boost their enthusiasm. Also it is worth noting that Newport have been leading at half time in every home game this season so smaller stakes on Newport HT/FT looks a good bet. Newport County to win @ 4/5 with Bet365. 10/10 Newport County HT/FT @ 7/4 with Bet365. 5/10

  13. Re: FA Cup > January 4th & 5th I quite like the look of Wigan at home to MK Dons here. MK Dons have actually had some decent results away from home in recent league games beating Wolves and Crawley but generally aren't at their best on the road and lost away to League One high flyers Brentford in their last away match. Wigan are now picking up good results under their new manager and starting to play a better brand of football. They are unbeaten in their last 5 matches including wins against Reading, Bolton and also they were the team to put an end to Derby's 9 game unbeaten run on new years day. I think Wigan will have too much class for MK Dons here and should look to carry on their run of good form, they are of course the current FA Cup holders ;) Wigan to win - 4/5 with Bet365.

  14. Re: FA Cup > January 4th & 5th

    Two games that I am interested in . The one is Rochdale v Leeds (looking at the Leeds away win at 10/11) Other is Middelsborough v Hull (Hull away win is 2 -1) Any comments or info appreciated.
    Leeds are a class above (actually two leagues) and are having a good season in the championship, however they have slowed down in recent weeks with no win in their last 4 league games. Rochdale are in OK form and are doing well in league two this season. They have a solid record at home this season too with 9 wins a draw and only 3 losses out of 13 home games. I feel this is a hard game to call TBH as it's hard to call what team Leeds will field (striker Ross McCormack is likely to miss the game with a hamstring injury) and whether they will be more focused on promotion, although they do have a weeks rest after this game to recover. I actually think Rochdale (DNB) @ 7/4 with Bet365 could represent some good value.
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