Tyler
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Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Sri Lanka ODI Series Bluesq settled the sixes bet as a loser despite the rain which means a -2.68 return for the series. Never saw Sri Lanka chasing down two 300+ scores though so I am rather happy that I didn't get on SA to win the series on a handicap. Rather annoyed I didn't get on AB to Top Bat though. Easily brought home the goods which would've been a nice 4/1 earner. Minor.
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Re: Cricket: Pakistan vs England Test Series England and Younus didn't exactly do the business for me but the two Sportingbet bets did. Had something to the tune of 20pts on the 2nd one leaving a healthy profit from the first match. Two horrible batting performances from England didn't do many favours for my outrights though. Pietersen is looking particularly shaky. Several issues to address ahead of wednesday.
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Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Sri Lanka ODI Series One for me ahead of the 3rd ODI: - 6pts Team to hit Most 6's: South Africa @ 10/11 [bluesq] The talk around the town is that Kallis and Amla will make way for Colin Ingram and Robin Peterson today which does this bet some nice favours. Ingram sccored 124 off 126 balls here in 2010 and he should slot into that #3 position comfortably. Back that up with AB, Duminy, Du Plessis and Albie Morkel in the middle order and we have some potential fireworks on the cards. Sri Lanka don't hit too many as we've said for years and there is little barring a Malinga massacre that will stop South Africa. Home team all day here.
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Re: Cricket: Pakistan vs England Test Series Just lost what I think was my biggest ever write up on PL. I am now pissed off and I am short on time. To summarise, I don't really agree with the whole talk of the draw. Here goes: - 3pts England to win the 1st Test @ 2/1 [bet365] Everything you read is dead pitches this, English bowlers will struggle that. Whilst that may be true, I fancy a result to come out of this match. I was looking at the previous two matches here and it's the match being played here in October that fills me with some confidence. Sri Lanka were skittled out on Day 1 cheaply and Pakistan were able to get a result on Day 4! The previous match saw some painfully slow batting from both Pakistan and South Africa. That won't be the case here though, Pietersen, Bell, Morgan, Prior and Broad are all fairly quick scorers. On a pitch that is meant to be a "batsmans paradise" I see quick runs and a result, for the tourists favour. The price of 2/1 is high enough for me to snag. England ftw. - 3pts Both Teams to Bat on Day 1 @ 10/3 [sportingbet] - More than 4 wickets to Fall on Day 1 @ 1/2 [sportingbet] I wish I knew about Sportingbet's Specials and when they go up. Some of them are very silly. I mentioned above that I fancy a result to come out of this match and that should come about from wickets on Day 1. There should be something there early up. If there is, I expect Jimmy to exploit it for England and Gul and the impressive Wahab Riaz for Pakistan. The match here in October saw Pakistan restrict Sri Lanka to 78/5 at LUNCH on Day 1. They went on to be skittled out feebly for 240-odd with Pakistan able to bat out 9 overs before the end of play. Now England in unfamiliar conditions may not last all day and I rate the English bowl attack highly enough to trouble Pakistan. I can't remember the last time I watched a test match where five wickets didn't fall on Day 1. Even at 1/2 I think that's a decent bet. I genuinely can see 10 though and I am happy to play at 10/3 when it's usually 9/4 or somewhere thereabouts. Wickets for me. Five at least. - 1pt Top Pakistan Batsman (1st Innings Only): Younis Khan @ 7/2 [bet365] Great record here for Younis Khan. Three innings here has seen him score 55, 35 and 131* and I expect him to go well again here tomorrow. I don't really need to add too much to this. He's seen it all, done it all and will most definitely do it again. He is accustomed to the conditions and comes in at 4 where he can save his country or add a big innings to build his team around. He is the favourite amongst all Pakistani batsman, Only Azhar Ali has a better record here than him and he is interestingly priced at a best of 6.50 for these honours. However it's Khan I see for this one. #4 to prevail.
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Re: Cricket: Pakistan vs England Test Series Few more: - 1pt Top England Series Bowler: James Anderson @ 4/1 [stanJames] - 4pts Total Series Wickets: James Anderson Over 11.5 @ 5/6 [bet365] I've been trying to get a measure of how the England Bowlers will fare in Dubai and every time I read up on the subject I'm drawn towards Anderson. The fear with this is the notion that twenty wickets wont fall for England on a regular basis which will limit the potential reward for Anderson. I'm not so convinced though. Whilst Pakistan aren't a bad side, I expect them to struggle to take 20 English wickets more than England will struggle to take 20 Pakistani wickets. The two tests that have been played here have been a relatively even keel for seamers and spinners. Last year 31 wickets fell when Sri Lanka came to town and it ended 12-19 in terms of spinners seamers. In 2010, South Africa played Pakistan here where twenty six wickets fell. They were split 12-14 in terms of seamers and spinners. Seamers should get a decent amount of joy here and with the absence of Bresnan I'd like to favour Anderson. Anything offered early up with the new cherry will see it being exploited by Jimmy. What I favour more to is the fact that barring Swann he is the only other bowler effectively guaranteed to play all three matches. Broad should be fit but has fitness issues ahead of tomorrow whilst if a Monty is needed for a two-pronged spin attack, I'd assume Tremlett will be the one to give way. I can definitely see Jimmy taking four of five wickets in an innings at least somewhere in the three tests so twelve wickets shouldn't be TOO much of an issue. If he stays injury free, I expect him to be there or there abouts at the top of the pile so I'll put my eggs in his basket for this series.
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Re: Cricket: Pakistan vs England Test Series Time to put my two pence in. Outrights for now: - 2pts Top England Series Batsman: Alaistair Cook @ 7/2 [WillHill] I think the Top Series Batsman will go to one of the Top 3 for England. All this talk about these pitches in Dubai indicate how it will be a batsman's paradise and how these tracks are more like roads with true bounce and all the rest. For that reason I see runs early doors with the new ball. Obviously, Cook has to be in anyone's thoughts. The guy scores runs for fun in all countries and all conditions. A juicy hundred in the warm-up match the other day when everyone around him failed was also a nice bonus as he's been played into form. Part of me wanted to get on Strauss as well but I havent really got as much confidence in the skipper as I had before. - 1pt Top England Series Batsman: Jon Trott @ 9/2 [stanJames] - 4pts Batsman Series Runs: Jon Trott Over 240 @ 5/6 [bet365] It's for that reason I thought I had to side with Trott too . Trott will graft for runs wherever he goes and his discipline as a batsman is ridiuclously good. He, like Cook was played into form last week with a polished 93 run innings so he should have a measure of the conditions too. I went against Pietersen because at 4, he might not get enough of time in the middle and his weakness to left-arm spin will just fit right into Abdur Rehman's hands. They'll have a plan for him sorted there's no doubt about that. I'm also taking the runs lines for Trott. On these decks I definitely see a century somewhere along the lines, meaning he'll have four or five innings to score the rest of the runs needed. I fancy overs there. Alastair and John to do the scoring for me over the next month.
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Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Sri Lanka ODI Series Nice shout X. Nice odds on that.
+3.32 for me after Sri Lanka duly obliged with not hitting a single six. Onto tomorrow though and there were a few bets I fancied before checking the weather and seeing a 70% chance of precipitation throughout the day. The last thing I want to do is get caught on the wrong side of a D/L ruling either way so I'll swerve this one.WIN - 4pts Total Sixes: Under 5.5 @ 5/6 [WillHill] VOID - 4pts Player Performance: J. Botha Over 31 @ 5/6 [bet365] -
Re: Cricket: Australia vs India - Test Series The only positive that can possibly be taken from that Test Match was the fact that Michael Clarke has now established a 105 run lead in the Series Run Scorer market for Australia. Judging by the way things have gone for me so far in this series, I wouldn't be surprised if he let that lead slip however. Ahead of this third test then and I have to say that not a lot is jumping out at me. I still think that India have something to give. Despite everything that has gone on getting almost 3/1 on a team that contains some of the best players to ever grace the sport is a nice bet. Australia obviously hold the upper hand but at 8/11, I can't get on them. Even the side markets hold nothing for me. Bet365 have expertly avoided all the seamers on their player performances which isn't much help and all the rest either price me out or don't entice me at all. No bet for me this week. I just hope India turn it round and Michael Clarke continues his assault.
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Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Sri Lanka ODI Series Not sure at how the series is going to play out. I think Sri Lanka will pose more of a threat than the bookies think but then again, if they didn't, I wouldnt be surprised. Definitely like AB for Series Top Bat at 4/1 but I'll see how he reacts to captaincy before I touch that. Two for tomorrow: - 4pts Total Sixes: Under 5.5 @ 5/6 [WillHill] Slow and low track expected tomorrow and two teams that are notorious for not hitting sixes. I expect Amla, Kallis and Smith to do the majority of the batting for SA and that should be unders. So too with Tharanga, Sanga and Mahela which will also bring unders. The danger here is the middle orders of both teams with Botha, Duminy, Mathews and Perera all being able to clear but with the nature of the track, I expect sixes to be a rarity. - 4pts Player Performance: J. Botha Over 31 @ 5/6 [bet365] I chose Botha over Duminy because I reckon Botha will do more of the bowling. Definitely can see 6 or 7 overs out of Botha tomorrow with the nature of the pitch and I expect at least one wicket. I like Botha's ability to bat as well which can see a quick 20-run cameo if need be. Can see 40 with the ball though so hopefully the bat won't be needed. Overs here. Unders up there.
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Re: Cricket: Australia vs India - Test Series This is catastrophic.
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Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Sri Lanka Test Series Literally just went to Bluesq to put on the above bet and I saw another that is too good to let go: - 2pts Player to Take 4 Wickets in 1st Innings Tomorrow: Dale Steyn @ 7/1 [bluesq] Won't need much more explanation than that's already been given. I spoke about Steyn's record here in the previous post, but to back that up, Steyn has taken at least four wickets in the 1st Innings at Cape Town consecutively for the last six times here. Six times consecutively. Again it's another opportunity for the trend to stop but 7/1 for him to replicate that feat here again is too good to pass up.
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Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Sri Lanka Test Series
Happy I didn't take the Outright on SA winning to nil. Three for me in Cape Town. +4.82 for the series. - 4pts Fall of First Sri Lanka Wicket: Under 29.5 @ 5/6 [bluesq] This has come in three of the four Sri Lankan innings so far this series. I was on in the 1st Test Match, but annoyingly I was also on in the only innings in which it was a loser, at a higher stake. I see no reason in giving up now though, I expect the SL openers to get it in the neck early tomorrow from Steyn and Philander. I guess it's slightly harsh on Marchant de Lange when you get dropped after taking 7-for on your debut, but such is the quality of the South African pace attack right now. Early wicket for me at a venue which is conducive to pace bowling. - 4pts Batsman Matchbet: Jacques Kallis -0.5 vs. Mahela Jayawardene @ 17/20 [sportingbet] Jacques Kallis' record here is disgusting. He has scored 1874 runs at Cape Town with an average of 72. Those runs include eight centuries and eight fifties. There have been four centuries, a fifty and a score of 46 in his last 10 innings at this ground. Crazy numebers from who I feel is the best all-round cricketer ever. Mahela Jayawardene as I've already said in this thread isn't in the best of form. He has not got above 31 in his four innings so far on the sub continent and I don't really expect that to change any time soon. Kallis' got duck here incidentally against Australia in November, he also isn't in the greatest of form either. If there's any venue where that will change though, Cape Town is where it's at. - 6pts Player Performance: Dale Steyn Over 127 @ 5/6 [bet365] If you touch overs in every player performance for Dale Steyn in South Africa, you'll probably snag a winner 4 out of 5 times. He's ridiculously good. Listen to this though, he has taken at least SIX wickets in each of the last SIX tests he's played here. That includes Seven in '09 and Eight in '08. He loves it here and with the recent form he has been in with the bat, I can only see overs again. To be fair, me getting on this is the perfect recipe for the trend to stop and for Dale to not even get two wickets, but I'll play in the strong hope that it doesn't. The curator has suggested there should be some nice action for the quicks on the 1st day. If SL bat first, I expect Steyn and co to have a field day and snag a few early wickets. Even if Steyn has a mare in the 1st Innings like he did in Durban last week, dude can come back and take a five-for like it's nothing and chip in with 72 runs to boot. Overs for me.LOSS - 5pts Fall of 1st Sri Lankan Wicket: Under 26.5 Runs @ 5/6 Ladbrokes WIN - 4pts Player Performance: Graeme Smith Under 89 @ 5/6 [bet365] -
Re: 2012 PDC World Darts Championship 20:15 :ok
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Re: Cricket: Australia vs India - Test Series
Ponting turned it on in much to the detriment of my player performance tip. The one in-play bet brings everything to +2.00 for the series. Sydney starts tonight, I think its Sachin's time. - 3pts India to win the Second Test @ 5/2 [bluesq] India have played ten Test Matches at Sydney and won one. They lost the 1st Test last week (as they always do) and come against this unchanged yet inexperienced Australian side brimming with confidence. Despite all this, I don't really know why the odds on India are THIS generous to win this weekend and I am fully behind them. As I briefly touched on just there, India generally always chase away series that they play in. They always lose the first test and bounce back. Barring their 4-0 whitewash at the hands of England in the summer, they have "bounced back" in their previous three test series away from the sub-contintent. Australia's statistical record here is good but that doesn't really represent the true nature of their record here. India really should have won that infamous test here four years ago and England BATTERED them here last year. THE SCG apparently will play into the quicks hands here according to the curator. It is also historically a good track to bat on. I was mightily impressed with Umesh Yadav in Melbourne and with Zaheer also doing what Zaheer does best, it looks promising from an Indian perspective. It's only a matter of time before Ishant finds his range. Whilst the Australian bowlers also had a good outing last week, India pack some of the best batsmen in history and some of their records here are just disrespectful. VVS Laxman has three centuries at the SCG in three Test Matches (avg of 96.20) whereas Tendulkar goes one better with 3 centuries and a 50 with an average of 221.60!! More on him later. The difference between the two sides was the batting from India in the 1st Test. However, India's last six wickets in the 1st innings fell for something mad like 80 runs. That doesn't happen often and I'm sure won't happen again. I fancy India to bounce back here and I am more than willing to jump on at 5/2 - 2pts Top India Batsman (1st Innings Only): Sachin Tendulkar @ 4/1 [Ladbrokes] - 4pts Batsman Matchbet: Tendulkar +3.5 vs. Ricky Ponting @ 5/6 Tendulkar loves Sydney. He has played four tests here and scored his scores read the following: 148*, 45, 4, 241*, 60*, 154* and 12. Madness. Everyone is waiting on the elusive 100th hundred and the stats genuinely say there is a better chance of it coming here than anywhere else. VVS Laxman has a good record here too, however his recent form is an issue. Tendulkar looked in good touch in the first test, top-scoring in both innings. Ponting also looked in good touch, but his recent record (last four years) has been far from impressive. I should point out that from '03 to '06, Ricky scored a ridiculous amount of runs here, however since then his scores read: 45, DNB; 55, 1; 0, 53; 0, 11. Far from great and more importantly, two ducks in the 1st innings of the last two tests here. If he snags another duck, Tendulkar wont even have to score for that bet to come in. Sachin is my man here. Most definitely. - 4pts First Innings Lead: India @ 6/5 [WillHill] I don't really need to add to much to what I've alread said for this bet. India suffered an unusual collapse in the 1st Innings in Melbourne which wont happen too often. Australia haven't really performed here in recent years too. Three of the last four matches at Sydney have seen them concede a 1st Innings Lead and I am more than content with the bowlers at India's disposal to stem the runs from Australia. Michael Clarke's toss record is awful, if India win the toss, I expet them to put Australia into bat and I would not be overly surprised to see both teams bat on Day 1. The pitch should flatten out over the course of the test match and with some of the records the Indian batsmen have here, I sense India to take this one.LOSS - 4pts Player Performance: Ricky Ponting Under 89 @ 5/6 [bet365] WIN - 6pts Australia Innings Runs: Under 380.5 @ 5/6 [bet365] -
Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan Bookies really and truly cleaned up this weekend.
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Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan
Unreal result in the United game. One goal away from a clean sweep too with Wolves scoring as predicted. Bookies really must've cleaned up today. Well done to any winners this weekend.WIN - 8pts Newcastle Team Goals: Over 0.5 @ 8/11 [Ladbrokes] LOSS - 4pts Manchester United Team Goals: Over 2.5 (vs. Blackburn) x Wolves: Over 0.5 (vs. Bolton) @ 2.27 [stanJames] -
Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan Just to let everyone know that Rooney isn't in the 18-man squad today, United's line up is as follows: #MUFC XI: De Gea, Rafael, Carrick, Jones, Evra, Valencia, Park, Nani, Welbeck, Berbatov, Hernandez Subs: Anderson, Diouf, Lindegaard, Pogba, W Keane, Fryers, L Cole. NO ROONEY.
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Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan
+5.82 from that. I usually hate betting again on the weekend when I've already got a nice profit secured but I'm going to take one more. - 4pts Manchester United Team Goals: Over 2.5 (vs. Blackburn) x Wolves: Over 0.5 (vs. Bolton) @ 2.27 [stanJames] United should merk Blackburn tomorrow. The last two teams that have come their way got spanked for five and I see a similar occurence tomorrow. Blackburn just happen to be the worst team in the country and have a horrible away record. Despite the mounting injuries in Manchester, United should have enough to see off a woeful Blackburn. I was tempted to touch United -1AH at Half Time incidentally. I sense Fergie telling his players to go out there and try and kill the game off early so he can rotate and rest players ahead of this very busy period. The other two 'five-nillers' saw United 2 and 3 nil up at half time. If that happens, I can only sense more goals in the 2nd half and consequently seeing the three goals we need here. This is well within United's reach, especially with Blackburn missing Scott Dann who is one of their most important players. Similarly I see Wolves scoring at Bolton. I opposed Bolton last week against Newcastle to some success. Bolton have conceded in every single one of their home games this season barring one match. Every one. Wolves are also decent at scoring away from home aswell. They have scored at least one goal this season away from home at the The Stadium of Light, the Emirates, Old Trafford, The Etihad, Goodison Park and Anfield! Some of those places are absolute fortresses so for Wolves to score at each of those is an achievement. Bolton are shit though, they defence is poor and they have bigger holes at the back than Danielle Lloyd. Definitely see an away goal for Wolves. Double pays just a shade over 5/4. That's me.WIN - 8pts Newcastle Team Goals: Over 0.5 @ 8/11 [Ladbrokes] -
Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 30 Dec-1 Jan I'm taking an early one for Friday's match at Anfield: - 8pts Newcastle Team Goals: Over 0.5 @ 8/11 [Ladbrokes] Doesn't take a genius to see that Alan Pardew has revolutionised Newcastle football club. They're only three points off a Champions League spot at the moment and in Demba Ba, they have one of the most improved players in the country. Getting 8/11 for them to score at Anfield this weekend is a good bet for me and the stats do their best to back that up. Newcastle have scored in seven of their 8 league away matches this season whilst Liverpool have conceded in seven of their nine home matches. Newcastle's away visits have seen them go to the Etihad, Old Trafford, Villa Park, The Stadium of Light and the Reebok whilst Liverpool put in a God awful performance at the weekend against Blackburn, letting them score a shocking goal. I'm not convinced with this Liverpool side right now and without Suarez too their team lacks any punch. Newcastle are on fire though. As mentioned above, they have a good knack of scoring away from home this season and they seemingly have a full strength squad. I can't really see them not scoring here this weekend and I will play strongly that they will.
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Re: Cricket: Australia vs India - Test Series I had a 'mare. For some reason I put 3/1 twice on my Michael Clarke write-up. It's definitely 4/1. One in play bet for me. Haven't done any in-play betting since the Ashes last year, so let's see how this goes: - 6pts Australia Innings Runs: Under 380.5 @ 5/6 [bet365] Ishant and Zaheer have found their lengths early on. Warner has scored a few quick runs but he got so lucky with that inside edge. Ishant has himbacking deep into his crease and Cowan looks like a nervous wreck. It's only a matter of time before these two get separated and when it does, this line will come right in. Shaun Marsh at #3 has buckets of talent, but likewise, he'll be shitting his pants. Under 381 runs for me. Moderate stake.
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Re: Cricket: South Africa vs Sri Lanka Test Series Two for me in Durban: - 5pts Fall of 1st Sri Lankan Wicket: Under 26.5 Runs @ 5/6 Ladbrokes This came in for me in the last match and also came in comfortably in the 2nd innings too. I have written several times how good South Africa are at striking early on this forum and I expect them to do so again at Durban. The pitch usually has alot of nip around early on and that will be perfect for Dale Steyn and the really fired up Vernon Philander. This line has caved to Under 21.5 in other places which shows the faith the bookies have in the Sri Lankan opening two. Unders here for sure. - 4pts Player Performance: Graeme Smith Under 89 @ 5/6 [bet365] Graeme Smith's record here at Durban doesn't speak volumes for him. He has played here ten times in his history as the South African opener and he only averages 33.00. Only twice in ten tests here has he reached 90 points. In seventeen innings, he only has three scores over 50 and with the early nip expected tomorrow, I wouldn't bet on a big score in the 1st innings from the skipper. There isn't a massive potency from the Sri Lankan attack, but if South Africa bat first, I'm sure Welegedera can get some decent shape early up to cause a few problems. Unders again.
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Re: Cricket: Australia vs India - Test Series One for the first test: - 4pts Player Performance: Ricky Ponting Under 89 @ 5/6 [bet365] Haven't got a lot of time for this but Ponting is a man in decline, as much as I hate to say it. He is defintiely not the player he used to be which is a shame because in his prime he was truly amazing. His record at the MCG isn't fantastic. He has played here 14 times in Test Matches and has only reached 89 points 4 times. In '08 he scored two scores of 101 and 99 in the match but excluding those we have only one score above 50 in his last eight innings here. His 11 innings in 2011 have yielded two fifties and five innings below 20! He could be in before lunch tomorrow and he's always been a notoriously bad starter of an innings. Unders for the great man for me.
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Re: Cricket: Australia vs India - Test Series I can't actually wait for this series. Probably won't be able to get these up before the start so getting involved now. Two outrights for me. - 6pts India Series Draw No Bet @ 5/4 [skybet] Australia are going to meet their match here. Their team is way too unsettled for me to even contemplate backing them in this series and the quality, experience and the all-round cohesive-ness of the mighty Indians make them the play here for sure. Let's take Australia's "strong point", which happens to be a very average bowling attack. Are Pattinson, Siddle, Hilfenhaus, Starc and Lyon really going to consistently take 20 wickets against a Top 7 that include some of the best batsmen to ever grace the game? I'll let you answer that one. Now their batting. Phil Hughes isn't here but he's replaced by Ed Cowan.... David Warner is a top player, there's no doubting that, however he's massively inexperienced. Marsh, Ponting, Clarke and Hussey make up the middle order and well the first two don't fill me with the most amount of confidence ever. This is a very important series for Haddin at seven too. In my reading ahead of this series, a few say he's on borrowed time. An unsettled-ish batting line-up with a mediocre bowling attack doesn't bode well for the Aussies. India come, well rested and seemingly at full fitness. Personally, I don't necessarily agree with the dropping of Harbhajan Singh but Ojha is not a completely shit replacement. We all know how key Zaheer is to this team and Ishant Sharma had a stormer here in 2003. There is all this talk about how they may not be fit for the start of this game but I think it's all mind games. Those two with the young Varun Aaron should provide some potency up early for the Indians. The batting line-up of Sehwag, Gambhir, Dravid, Tendulkar, Laxman, Dhoni and probably Viray Kohli is just emotional. Ashwin is an inexperienced spinner, but his mystique should cause enough problems to these Aussies who probably haven't faced him a whole lot. Two wins for India see no money lost here and i think that'll be the case. - 2pts Top Australia Series Batsman: Michael Clarke @ 3/1 [Ladbrokes] Excellent player of spin. Excellent under pressure. Clarke is my pick for this series most definitely. I dont think Warner, Marsh or a declining Ponting will pose much of a threat to top run scorer as explained above so I think it will be between Clarke and Hussey. Hussey may be a bit too low at 6 though to snag top overall batsmen. He has great records at the grounds these matches are being held at too which will leave him in good stead. The captaincy hasn't really affected his batting too much since he got elected so i'll play at 3/1 here at Ladbrokes. It's 5/2 generally elsewhere.
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Re: England > Boxing Day > Barclays Premier League > 26-27 December Dont usually get involved in the Premiership thread but I fancy two for this Boxing Day: - 6pts Man United Team Goals: Over 2.5 @ 4/5 [boyles] I can only see a fairly routine victory for United on Monday. Despite their injury problems, they seem to have dug themselves out of the rut they were in a few weeks back. I was very impressed with the way that they performed against Fulham last week and they never ever looked in danger against QPR. At home then, on boxing day, against who I believe to be the worst team in the country I can only see similar results. Nani, Hernandez, Rooney, Welbeck, Valencia, Giggs and Carrick should be a potent enough attacking force to see three goals hit here and at 1.80, I'll pay to see it come in. - 4pts Team Goals Double: Man City Over 1.5 Goals x Newcastle Over 0.5 Goals @ 1.93 [boyles] Two picks here that are pretty much self explanatory. Two goals from Man City at home to West Brom. Do I need to explain? Didnt think so. For the other though, I think this is a game in which I can definitely see the away team scoring. Newcastle were very unlucky the other day against West Brom, they were definitely unlucky not to come away with a point there. They have enough in their repertoire to score at least once away at struggling Bolton who have conceded in EVERY SINGLE home match this season barring one. Every one. Overs in both of these for me. The treble pays 7/2. I'll have a small punt on that too. Merry Christmas.
Cricket: Australia vs India - Test Series
in Cricket Predictions
Posted
Re: Cricket: Australia vs India - Test Series Series has been a bit of a shit one for myself but the Clarke outright is still running and Sportingbet could, could, just could turn it around for me. - More than 4 wickets to Fall on Day 1: Yes @ EVS [sportingbet] The problem with me and my results in gambling boils right down to my discipline. I always bet impulsively when I don't really want to and it's those bets that usually bring down my overall +/-. Last week though I broke my discipline and took this bet in the England/India series when it was priced at 1.50. It came in. It's now priced at 2.00 and I have no issues with getting right back on it. The 4th Test starts tomorrow in Adelaide in what is said to be a haven for batsman whoever steps up there. The weather is scheduled for searing sun across all five days and India have a relatively decent record at this particular venue. In regards to this bet though, we have to look at the stats. Assuming that there is no rain delays tomorrow and India pick up their woeful over rate, we should get at least 80 overs in tomorrow which means we need five wickets coming better than one every sixteen overs. I have looked back at all the 1st innings scores in the last eight tests here at Adelaide and seen when the fifth wicket fell. They fell at these times: - Australia 156/5 @ 54.5 overs. - West Indies 239/5 @ 62.6 overs. - New Zealand 200/5 @ 60.2 overs. - India 282/5 @ 73.3 overs. - England 489/5 @ 151.6 overs. - West Indies 237/5 @ 64.2 overs. - Australia 444/5 @ 121.5 overs. - Australia 390/5 @ 88.1 overs. The ones in bold represent all the times in the last 8 tests at Adelaide when the 5th wicket fell. 6 times in the last 8 tests. More importantly, the last four straight have seen 5 wickets fall with AT LEAST 10 overs still to play. If India bat 1st tomorrow, I am sure Aus will run through their shaky top order. I guess the fear here is that Australia bat first and two of their in-form top order but on a mammoth partnership and India toil in the field. Despite that though, there should be something early up for the quicks with a new cherry and I five wickets in 80+ overs isn't that far out of anyone's reach. I had this in Dubai last week on a pitch which was meant to be a complete road. Five wickets fell by lunch. Cricinfo tell us that since the Test here in 2000, a wicket falls roughly every 45.68 runs in the 1st innings with a scoring rate at 3.37. If we get 85 overs tomorrow at that scoring rate, we get 286 runs, divide that by the number of runs in between wickets and we get an average of 6.27 wickets on Day 1. More than happy to be on this at EVS.