calculus
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Posts posted by calculus
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Tipp 8.30 - Shake The Bucket (12/1 Bet365) 1pt Win Yet to win on the turf on the flat but best form from last season makes him look very nicely treated here and should be up to running a big race if putting his best foot forward.
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A true legend and a real sad ending. I do think that the Clive Smith basing is all in poor taste, as misguided as he may or may not have been, it's hard to imagine that he did not have the horses best interests at heart. Lots of hearsay and conjecture going around but ultimately who are we to say what was best for the horse, I don't think it's appropriate to paint him as the villain of the piece when he will surely feel the loss more than anyone.
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4.10 Pontefract - Water Clock (12/1 William Hill) 1pt Win Has not won a race for some time but is now 13lbs lower than at this point last season when he was contesting races like the Ascot Stakes and Northumberland Cup. This is a lot easier and he showed enough over timber during the winter to suggest that his heart is still in the game, put in an encouraging enough effort on his return to the flat two weeks ago and should come on for that with the yard in decent form.3.45 Gowran Park: Handicap, 7f Strong and competitive handicap with some highly rated individuals in the line-up, though not all too many appear well handicapped. If Vastonea would have been showing any sort of form lately he would be interesting here, only 2lb above his Galway Festival winning mark, but the way he's going at the moment, I'll leave him alone despite a tasty price. Ken Condon's Strait Of Zanzibar is sure to run his race with conditions to suit. He's rarely running a bad race but for that reason seems stuck in and around marks mid-80 which he may be able to win off, but everything has to fall right in order to do so. Favouite Laviniad has been on the upward this season and may be able to overcome a big rise in the weights, however the drop to 7f is a concern. Have A Nice Day has also been progressive lately. A career best is required here, but clearly not out of this world with conditions sure to suit. Bolger's Wexford Opera ran well off bigger marks in Handicaps last year. He might be sharper after a poor seasonal debut run and has a chance off a good mark but his strike rate doesn't instil much confidence. This race is up for grabs for an improving sort, such as the only three year old in the line-up, Ger Lyons' Dandyleekie.He was a smart juvenile, finishing 3rd behind Lucida in a very strong race twelve month ago. He started his classic season in encouraging fashion when taking on older horses at Fairyhouse in a Condtions race. He finished last but was only 4l beaten by smart Tamadhor, who herself was a strong 6th in the Irish 1000 Guineas, and only two lengths behind a good 98 rated individual. Dandyleekie drops into handicaps for the first time now and an opening mark off 91 seems fair. With the weight for age in his favour he should be a big runner, as natural progression may give him the edge against older and more exposed rivals. ? Dandyleekie @ 13/2 Paddy Power -
4.20 Ascot - Caspar Netscher (33/1 Paddy Power) 1pt Win Returned to some form when placed last time out and has enough form in group races to give him a realistic chance of going close here, has run well at the royal meeting before and looks a bit of value in a relatively weak renewal.
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RA 2.30: Sixth Sense RA 3.05: First Flight RA 3.40: Postponed RA 4.20: Caspar Netscher RA 5.00: Robert Le Diable RA 5.35: Marzocco
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RA 2.30: Our Joy RA 3.05: Festive Fare RA 3.40: Adaay RA 4.20: Ervedya RA 5.00: Famous Kid RA 5.35: Bantry Bay
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5.00 Ascot - Famous Kid (33/1 Boyles) 1pt Win No show in the Chester Cup lto but this should be a more suitable test, looks like he needs fast ground to really perform to the height of his ability and if he can show the same level of form as when running well on two occasions in Dubai over the winter then he is not without a chance. Yard generally pick up at least one of the handicaps at Royal Ascot each year.
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RA 2.30: Shanghai Glory RA 3.05: Not So Sleepy RA 3.40: Gretchen RA 4.20: Mizzou RA 5.00: Sugar Boy RA 5.35: Dutch Uncle
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RA 2.30: Tupi RA 3.05: Acapulco RA 3.40: Euro Charline RA 4.20: The Corsican RA 5.00: American Hope RA 5.35: Mothers Finest
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5.00 Royal Ascot - American Hope (25/1 Bet365) 1pt Win Been following this one for far too long but still confident he can win a race of this nature if the cards fall right. Last run can be forgotten as he set a break neck pace running into a headwind. A reproduction of either of his good runs over this C&D last season off a 2lb lower mark would put him bang in contention. Needs to get a good tow into the race as he tends to stop when he hits the front but has an awful lot of raw ability and the price is more than fair imo.
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8.00 Brighton - Tax Reform (9/2 Stan James) 1pt Win Dropped to a very workable and likely to have needed his reappearance when a credible 3rd at this venue. Still a maiden but not been with current yard long and gets his ground conditions for the first time since a close second off 3lbs higher over this C&D last year.
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I agree, the whole thing is subjective and like I said there are no end of intangibles to deal with. What I really meant is that there seems to be a mindset, largely perpetuated by the likes of Tom Segal and his ilk, where the term "value" implies a large price - e.g. backing a 20/1 shot is "backing value", this is obviously not necessarily true. Value can be had at the shortest of prices and the biggest of prices can be terrible value. The real subjective part is defining the true probability of a horse winning.
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But, as others have said, if you accept the assumption that a horse's true probability of winning is equal to it's SP (or more realistically, the SP is slightly smaller than the true probability of the horse winning) then it stands to reason that you will profit in the long run by beating SP by a sufficiently big percentage. In the case of horse racing it's not an exact science because there are so many uncontrollable and intangible variables but it's basic mathematical probability and is an irrefutable fact. I think part of the issue is that the term "value" gets bandied around a lot these days and I am not convinced that people always understand what it actually means in all cases.
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RA 2.30: Esoterique RA 3.05: Round Two RA 3.40: Mecca's Angel RA 4.20: Gleneagles RA 5.00: Royal Irish Hussar RA 5.35: Silver Wings
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8:20 Windsor - Senrima (33/1 Betfred) 0.5pt E/W Top two in the betting take a huge chunk out of the market but neither has overly compelling claims so there has to be some mileage in opposing them. Taking a bit of a flier on the Meehan runner first time out, the yard have been going along very nicely this season and have had lots of horses run with credit on debut. Think this one represents some EW value at a massive price in a relatively weak maiden.
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5.10 Cork - Prince Jock (20/1 Sportingbet) Dropped to a very lenient mark and best on decent ground. Competitive race but 20s is far too big I'm.
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Re: 'Beating SP' - Does it matter? Hypothetical scenario here (bear with me)... You're betting on the toss of a coin and it's priced up as 10/11 Heads and 8/11 Tails on the early prices... By the time of the "off" it's priced up as 11/10 Heads and 4/7 Tails... and Tails wins at 4/7. If you backed Tails on the early prices you have still beaten SP and could be forgiven for believing that you had got "value" but that is obviously not the case and you would lose money in the long run if you consistently got your money on at such prices. What I am trying to say (I think) is that picking the "right bet" is not enough on its own, you also need to back at the right price and just because you are beating SP it does not mean that you are getting actual value (i.e. a bigger price than the probability of success in reality). However (back to the real world now!), given the way betting markets operate if you are not beating SP on a regular basis then it is highly unlikely that you are getting a any value. Perhaps it is easy to beat SP (and I'm not 100% convinced on this) but I honestly believe that it is far from straight forward to consistently get value.
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Re: 'Beating SP' - Does it matter? Just to contextualize what I said, beating SP is obviously not the goal per se, but it is the by product of backing horses at the right prices - and if you're not backing horses at the right prices then you simply cannot profit in the long run. Assuming (and it is a questionable assumption) that SP is representative of a horses "true probability" of winning then you cannot profit in the long run if you are not consistently getting your money on at greater odds. Also, re BH's comments, I don't see anything wrong with cutting a horses price due to tertiary events such as jockey bookings, the presence of the a top jockey clearly influences a horses probability of winning - and in the case of a Coolmore Derby runner also indicates that the horse will be ridden to win (i.e. not a pacemaker) - and I think bookies obviously need to account for this in their prices.
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Re: 'Beating SP' - Does it matter? As far as I can see, you have to consistently beat SP in order to make a meaningful profit in the long run. While (as Trotter has highlighted) beating SP is no guarantee of "value", as early prices can contract to a ridiculous extent, I think you'll find it very difficult to make more than a nominal profit unless you're beating SP by at least 10-20% on a regular basis. The problem is that, in the vast majority of races (i.e. everything outside of the really big meetings), the markets are so fickle that the real juicy value can only be had well in advance on the early prices (i.e. the night before) - the influence of the exchanges combined with no shortage of clued up punters ensures that the status quo is quickly enforced with regard to any stupidly overpriced runners. The point with which I get particularly disgruntled is that certain firms who price up races early (365, BFS, PP, etc.) use the modus operandi of making a half arsed effort of pricing races up and then let the punters show them where they have gone wrong - they then cut the prices and eventually restrict/close the accounts of said punters - obviously taking prices the night before is no guarantee of beating SP and you do not necessarily have to have your accounts closed provided you use some savvy but it if you bet most days then it is really the only way of getting sufficient value on a regular enough basis to make profit. Dunno if that made any sense...
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Re: weekly nap competition sat 13th june 2015 3:40 Chester - Whozthecat (33/1 PaddyPower) 1pt Win Looked to pay the price for setting a searching early pace lto but has now dropped down to his lowest mark since 2012 and the pick of his best form off higher marks during the last two seasons would give him a considerably better chance than the current odds suggest. Declan Carroll's runners look to be turning the corner now with the yards only two winners so far this season both coming within in the last 5 days. Provided he can break well and get over to the rail from his draw in stall 9 then I think he can make these all go and he could be hard to pass.
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Re: Weekly NAP Competition Friday 12th June 2015 3.40 York - Sunraider (20/1 Bet365) 1pt Win Dropping back down the weights and although he is still a bit above his most recent winning marks, 4 of his 6 career wins have come during the month of June so clearly comes to hand around this time of the year. Should have conditions to suit and worth a chance at the price.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Don't see why they cannot maintain both AW and turf tracks at Newcastle? Kempton manage it for jumps and flat, and Lingfield have both for just flat racing.
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Re: Weekly Nap Competition Thursday 11th June 2015 5:05 Newbury - Ickymasho (33/1 Betfred) 1pt Win Disappointing last time out over a shorter trip at Salisbury but still not beaten too far and the one that finished just ahead won at Kempton last night. Form of her previous two runs give her a better chance than the current odds suggest and the return to a longer likely to do no harm either.
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Re: DAILY NAP COMPETITION - DAY 5 - 28TH MAY 2015 8.45 Sandown - Donncha (8/1 Stan James) 1pt Win Went straight into my tracker after his win last time out at Lingfield - patiently ridden and just about the last off the bridle, he then met some traffic in running and showed a good engine to power through the field and won without coming under maximum pressure with a good bit more in hand than than the winning margin suggests. He is only 3lbs higher now and judging on the style of his win at Lingfield the stiffer finish and bit of extra distance should be conducive to further improvement. Looks the real unexposed one in the field and could possibly be a bit better than a handicapper in due course.
Naps Competition Day 6 ~ Friday July 10th
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
3.45 Newmarket - George Dryden (25/1 Coral) 1pt Win Highly tried since winning on career debut as a juvenile, has by and large been outclassed but was running against some top class horses. Ran well enough when 2nd and dropped back down to a more achievable grade LTO, runs in the same grade off the same mark here and should be suited by the likely strong pace in this big field. Trainer does not send many this far south and Buick looks a positive booking to me. 25/1 plenty big enough to my eyes.