calculus
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread
I know it's not the greatest Derby ever, but come on!Saying that, it's a poor race in which a 10f horse could win it and would only have tobe group 3 class. -
Re: Weekly Naps Competition - Day 4 Wednesday 27th May 2015 8.40 Kempton - Desert Command (7/1 Boyles) 1pt Win Was very popular in the market at Chelmsford last time out but just ran out of steam late on after trying to make all, he looked as likely to win as anything at the furlong pole there and did himself no favors by hanging to the right under pressure. On that evidence it should be of some assistance going the other way round tomorrow and the handicapper has been quite generous dropping him by 1lb (and a 2lb turn around with Picture Dealer who was 1 length ahead lto). On a line of form through the reliable yard stick Regal Parade he has a very feasible chance of beating the fav at the weights and I think 7/1 is more than fair.
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Re: Weekly NAPS competition | Tuesday 26th May 4.30 Leicester - Mary McPhee (16/1 BetVictor)1pt Win Looks a few points overpriced now that the Hills yard has begun to find a bit of form. She was outclassed in better races on her final two starts last year but the form of her maiden win offers more than enough evidence to lead me to believe that a mark of 75 is feasible. She ran respectably on her seasonal debut (and her first run on the AW) at Lingfield last month, being set a tough task after being ridden patiently at the back of the field and not being given an overly hard time of things but was nevertheless only beaten a few of lengths. Now switches back to the turf and the yard are in much better form than they were.
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Re: Weekly Naps Competition - Monday 25th May 3.50 Leicester - Gold Flash 1pt Win (8/1 BetVictor) On the face of things he looks to have a bit of work on at the weights to reverse the form with the re-opposing Charlie Croker from last time out (3lb turn around for a length and a bit beating), but I think he could well have been in need of the run there as he came to win the race at around the furlong pole but faded late on. He is also entitled to improve on that performance after only two career starts, pedigree is all about speed and also a half brother to the smart Hallelujah so reasonable to expect that he is capable of more. Very competitive race but happy to take my chances with the 8/1 available tonight.
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Re: Weekly Naps Competition - Sunday 24th May 5:00 Curragh - Taglietelle (7/1 Bet365) 1pt Win Unable to reel in an enterprisingly ridden winner last time out but did more than enough to make me think that he's still potentially well handicapped off a 4lb higher mark. Young jockey is great value for his 10lb claim as he has ridden hundreds of winners in pony racing.
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Re: Weekly NAPS competition | Saturday 23th May Goodwood 4.05 - Continuum (18/1 William Hill) 1pt Win I think Continuum looks a bit over priced here. I think he was a bit better than his finishing position suggests over this C&D on his final run last season as he met trouble in running and stayed on when it was all over finishing 6th (dropped 1lb on the back of that). Had previously won an arguably stronger race than this at York off only 1lb lower than today and had also run respectably in two definitively stronger races at Ascot prior to that. Ran well enough on reappearance last season and this is a course where the trainer does well so I think he should be a few points shorter at least.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Just taken the plunge on Hans Holbein in the Derby, that Chester Vase form looks rock solid after the performances of Medrano and Storm The Stars at Goodwood - 14/1 too big a price.
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Re: Weekly NAPS Competition Friday 22nd May 8.05 Cork - Jembatt (14/1 Bet365) 1pt Win Dropped a long way down the weights and is now on a career low mark, should strip fitter for the seasonal reappearance and looks a more than fair price.
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Re: Weekly NAPS Competition: Thursday 21st May Ahhhhhhh! Shouldn't have written so much - missed the price by 3 minutes :( 10/1 with SkyBet if it is not too much trouble please BH.
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7:00 Sandown - Sleep Easy (12/1 Paddy Power) 1pt Win Very similar profile last season to the same connections Arab Dawn, that one improved massively when stepped up in trip as a 3yo and I fancy this one can do the same this season. Was a bit disappointing on his reappearance on the polytrack but may not have been suited by the surface or the small field and may have also needed the outing. Takes another step up in trip tomorrow and switches back to the turf with Hanagan taking over from Jimmy Fortune - all positives in my opinion. Hughie Morrison had a very well backed winner (Atalan) who had also disappointed on his seasonal debut but left that form behind on his second run. Yard also won this with a similar sort (Vent De Force) last season.
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Re: Weekly NAPS Comp ''Wed 20th May 2015'' Lingfield 3.30 - Thomas Blossom (13/2 BetVictor) 1pt Win Disappointing when well backed last time out when well backed but would have a very good chance on form shown prior to that and is worth another chance at a more than fair price today.
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Re: Weekly NAPS Competition: Tuesday 19th May 3:50 Newcastle - Freewheel (22/1 BetVictor) 1pt Win Coolmore cast off who did very little when trained by Dandy Nicholls, has shown some flashes of ability since joining the Jordan yard and has now fallen to a career low mark of 79 - is actually 5lbs lower than when 6th lto as the jockey posted 2lbs ow on that occasion. I think the drop to 10 furlongs is definitely worth a try as he has looked a bit weak in the finish over 12 furlongs on some occasions. Would have a massive chance if returning to the form of his 2nd on the AW before Christmas, comes with risks attached but the price more than makes up for it.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread
Nearly one of my usual genius ante post bets there :D Now taken out of the betting with most firms and out to a massive price on the exchanges, thankfully I did not pull the trigger on that one.Also see some blue next to Grey Lion's name on oddschecker, very tempted to have a small bet on him now, looks to have the perfect blend of speed and stamina in his pedigree and if Andre Fabre thinks he good enough to take his chance then that will do for me. -
Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread I would generally agree, but I think AOB often runs the best of the ones he does send over to the UK in the Chester Vase (e.g. Ruler of the World, Treasure Beach). No way that John F Kennedy or Ol' Man River will turn up after the way they ran in the Dante and I think they'll be keen to keep Gleneagles to a maximum of 10 furlongs (and maximize future stud returns) rather than risk messing him around in the Derby. Giovanni Canaletto could be the one judging by the betting today. Also see some blue next to Grey Lion's name on oddschecker, very tempted to have a small bet on him now, looks to have the perfect blend of speed and stamina in his pedigree and if Andre Fabre thinks he good enough to take his chance then that will do for me.
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Re: Weekly NAPS competition | Monday 18th May 7:45 Leicester - Cyril (8/1 Ladbrokes) 1pt Win Is weighted to get much closer to Muqarred than when they met last time out. My selection had to come from a much less favorable position than the winner there, shaping as though the step up in trip would suit (breeding also backs up this view) and is now more than double the price of Muqarred tomorrow. Has not always looked straight forward but I would be surprised if he did not have the ability to win off this sort of mark.
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Agree that Golden Horn represents very little value now, although putting speed ratings to one side for a second, he produced clearly the most impressive performance of any of the trial winners and beat by far and away the strongest opposition. He is the classiest horse in the field and I'd be very surprised were he not to pick up at least one more G1 this season - though that may well come at 10f rather than 12f. The only semblance of value I can see at the moment is Hans Holbein at 14/1, he did the job nicely at Chester and looks a guaranteed stayer on pedigree. Likely to be the principle Coolmore representative so the price will surely contract a bit more. Would also be interested in Grey Lion if he lined up, but he looks to have had a few niggles this season and seems unlikely that Andre Fabre will send him over.
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3:15 Ripon - Love Island (6/1 Bet365) 1pt Win Put up a good performance on seasonal debut when chasing home Meshardal (who was a close second racing off a 6lbs higher mark today) at Doncaster, has been raised a couple of pounds for that effort but is still nicely weighted on the best of her historic form - such as when winning this race off a higher mark last season. The Whitaker horses often get underestimated in the market and I think that is the case again here as I had her in as a 7/2 shot. Was withdrawn due to the ground today and would not want any extremes of ground.
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Re: Weekly NAPS competition | Saturday 16th May
3.10 Newbury - Dutch Uncle (9/1 Bet365) 1pt Win Two good runs so far this year, Subcontinent, who finished just ahead of him last time out has won since and King Bolete, who was behind him in that same race, won yesterday - so the form looks rock solid. Looks the type to improve with his racing and stable have won this race before.4.50 Thirsk - Red Baron (9/2 Paddy Power) 1pt Win Looks to have been revitalized by being gelded since the end of last season, massive run at york two days ago when only finding one too good after doing all the hard work on the front end. Looks telling that connections look to go again before the handicapper has a say. I think he will win if running to anything like his last run and the price is already contracting. -
Re: Weekly Naps Comp ~ Latest Standings Understood, that makes sense. Definitely makes for a more exciting competition anyway. @BH: Will re-post another one in today's thread - thanks!
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Re: Weekly Naps Comp ~ Latest Standings I also like the format. Just wonder why there is no loss incurred for a loser? Just realized that I have shot myself in the foot by putting up a 9/2 shot today as it will not be enough to make up the ground (if nobody else has a winner) - here's hoping for a big drift on my selection :hope
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Re: Weekly NAPS competition | Saturday 16th May 4.50 Thirsk - Red Baron (9/2 Paddy Power) 1pt Win Looks to have been revitalized by being gelded since the end of last season, massive run at york two days ago when only finding one too good after doing all the hard work on the front end. Looks telling that connections look to go again before the handicapper has a say. I think he will win if running to anything like his last run and the price is already contracting.
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Re: York Tipsters Competition ~ Day 3 Selections 2.10: Silk Bow 2.40: Emerahldz 3.15: Romsdal 3.45: Yasmeen 4.20: Rosies Premier 4.50: Subtle Knife 5.20: Swaheen
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Re: Weekly Naps Comp ''Friday 15th May'' 2015 7.25 Hamilton - Igider (3/1 Boyles) 1pt Win Quite a few I fancy tomorrow but there is no getting away from the rock solid form of Igider's last two runs in maiden company last season. On his most recent outing, when successful at Windsor, the 2nd, 3rd and 4th placed horses are now rated 99, 92 and 101 respectively. His previous run in a maiden is similarly impressive form as he was not beaten far by the now 110 rated Second Step and had Kings Fete (who later went on to run in the St Leger) behind him. So it does not take a genius to figure out that he is potentially very well handicapped off a mark of 86 tomorrow. I don't think soft ground should be an issue as he has already run with credit on good to soft and his Medicean half sister was placed in a maiden on bottomless ground. The big danger is Spes Nostra who dotted up last time out and runs under a penalty tomorrow, he could still be well in on the best of his historic form but I think the soft ground may have exaggerated the winning distance somewhat there. Also, having traveled well through the race it is questionable whether he really wants the step up in trip - he has won over this trip but has generally been kept to shorter. Regardless of that, I think my selection is open to far more improvement and he should make the long trip north from Newmarket pay for Roger Varian.
Racing Chat Thread
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread
I dunno... There's no over hyped FAV for sure but there's plenty of quality in there at the same time. Calling it dreadful or suggesting that the winner will only need to be up to G3 standard makes no sense to me... Firstly, Highland Reel clearly isn't the pick of the Coolmore 3yos or he would never have run in the French guineas (where he ran like a drain anyway) and would not be going to Chantilly - AOB consistently runs the 3rd or 4th in the pecking order in the French classics. Hard to fathom what to make of the Coolmore challenge this year and I think the abject failures of JFK and OMR caught everyone unawares but we still have the prospect of a dual Guineas winner (both of which races look to be rock solid form wise) lining up and either of the Chester (also looks to be solid form) or Lingfield trial winners are legitimate challengers in their own right. I think Jack Hobbs is a bit of an anomaly and the fact that he won a Wolverhampton maiden is a red herring insofar as more and more decent horses now start out on the AW and he has subsequently proven himself to be a high class individual. The first three home in the Dante are without doubt top class horses and the form of that race is likely to prove to be as strong as ever. I'd be surprised if he cannot win a G1 at some stage in his career, although the boys in blue have got their hands on him now so nothing is certain. Golden Horn, as impressive a Dante winner as I have seen in quite a while, looks every inch a G1 performer in the making. Although the Derby may not be his race I think he can prove to be a real superstar over 10 furlongs - if he can stay sound this season then I cannot imagine a scenario where he does not win 2 or more G1s.