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calculus

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Posts posted by calculus

    Racing Chat Thread

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Just re-watched the Dante and Golden Horn was even more impressive on a second viewing. Buick only gives him one tap with the whip and he quickly puts the race to bed with the first three a long way clear - Buick also looks to have a real job pulling him up after the line. It's a weak enough crop of 3yos this year but this could be a very good horse imo, would prefer to see connections keep him at 10f though as that looks to be his optimum trip on breeding - possibly the French Derby then the Eclipse? Although I expect he will probably be supplemented for Epsom given the lack of serious opposition.

    Weekly Naps Comp ''Thursday 14th May'' 2015

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Weekly Naps Comp ''Thursday 14th May'' 2015 3:15 York - Golden Horn (11/2 Boyles) 1pt Win Jack Hobbs is the hype horse after fairly bolting up off 90 in an handicap last time out, as impressive as that win was (and it was impressive) this is a totally different test and his price here (and in the Derby) is nothing short of absurd - although it does give a good illustration of how short on the ground serious Derby contenders are this year. Anyway... the one I like is the other Gosden runner, Golden Horn, who looks like he may have got in here under the radar to a certain extent. I was very taken by his effort in the Fielden where he still looked a bit green when push came to shove and it seems reasonable to expect a good but more improvement on that run with the experience under his belt and the small step up in trip tomorrow, 11/2 looks more than fair as I would have had him in a couple of points shorter at around 7/2 and I think he can take this on the way to bigger things. John F Kennedy rates a serious danger if coming on for his seasonal debut and has to be respected with Ballydoyle cleaning up in the trials so far, however, that seasonal debut run was very uninspiring and he is opposable at the prices. Elm Park is another with a definite chance but I can't have him unless there is a downpour between now and race time.

    Weekly Naps Comp ''Wednesday 13th May'' ~ 2015

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Weekly Naps Comp ''Wednesday 13th May'' ~ 2015 2.10 - First Flight (9/1 Ladbrokes) 1pt Win Missed the price on this one but I still think he could be a point or two overpriced. Was a bit of a mixed bag last season but produced some good performances in big handicaps especially considering he was mostly kept to a potentially inadequate trip of a mile. I think 10 furlongs round a galloping track on decent ground are his optimal conditions and that's what he should get tomorrow. A lot of the yard's runners have been running right up to their best on their seasonal debuts and I fancy this fellow to do the same. The top two in the betting are obvious dangers but they offer very little in terms of value, I am also a big What About Carlo fan but he was a huge disappointment lto and the ground is likely to be a bit livelier than ideal.

    Weekly NAPS competition | Tuesday 12th May

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Weekly NAPS competition | Tuesday 12th May Chelmsford 8.35 - Regal Parade (6/1 Paddy Power) 1pt Win No where near the force he once was but still perfectly capable at this level at the age of 11. Ran well in similar races here the last twice and although today's race is also a class 3 I think it lacks any real strength in depth and my selection races off the same mark as in both of those aforementioned races. The current Fav looks grossly under priced as all his wins have come in much weaker races.

    Weekly Naps Comp ''Monday 11th May'' 2015

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Weekly Naps Comp ''Monday 11th May'' 2015 5:00 Doncaster - Critical Risk (7/1 William Hill) 1pt Win Lots of unexposed runners in the line up here and not really possible to rule any of the field out entirely but I think Critical Risk is a tad overpriced for the in form Meehan yard. The form of his runs in maidens as a juvenile looks very solid with the first two runners home in his most recent outing (when 6th at Haydock) having subsequently progressed to become borderline Group class horses and his previous run in a maiden (when 2nd at Leicester) also looks like decent form as he finished one place ahead of Azraff who is now rated in the 90s. All in all I think he could be very nicely weighted on his handicap debut here and his breeding suggests that any cut in the ground should be a big positive. In years gone by I would have been very reluctant to back a Meehan horse first time up as they generally needed the run, however that trend seems to be changing and the yard have sent out a few winners on their seasonal debut this season. I think 7/1 is more than fair and merits a small interest.

    Weekly Naps Comp ''Sunday 10th May'' 2015

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Weekly Naps Comp ''Sunday 10th May'' 2015 4:30 Longchamp - Meccas Angel (11/2 BetVictor) 1pt Win Very excited to see how far this filly can go in Group sprints this season after she looked a top sprinter in the making when making short work of a smart field on her final start last season, putting more than 2 lengths between herself and the subsequent listed winner Justice Day. Has a perfect record when fresh and any cut in the ground is a big plus.

    Nap of the Day - Monday 16th March 2015

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Monday 16th March 2015 4:00 Chelmsford City - Dragoon Guard (2/1 Bet365) 1pt Win Still unexposed after only four career starts, looks the type to keep improving this season and is potentially a cut above the opposition if that is the case. Botti's horses are running well and they've generally been ready to go first time up. The price is probably a true reflection of his chances and only offers marginal value at best, but if he is fit enough to do himself justice then I cannot see anything in the line up that can beat him.

    Flat Racing > Saturday March 14th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Flat Racing > Saturday March 14th 3:05 Lingfield - Tenor (33/1 BetVictor) 1pt Win Think Tenor looks the value of the field here, my selection has been running in Meydan of late and the one that beat him lto went on to run well behind Prince Bishop and African Story, so that run looks a bit better than it did at the time. John Ryan brought Ocean Tempest back from Dubai last year with that one hit the ground winning the Lincoln and I would not be surprised if Tenor is primed to run a big race today. He will probably need to run something close to a career best to win but I don't think that is impossible as he has ideal conditions.

    Nap of the day 14th March 2015

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the day 14th March 2015 4:15 Lingfield - Lunar Deity (11/1 Ladbrokes) 1pt Win Raced wide and was not given a hard time after his chance had gone last time out, looked like an improving horse in his three runs this year prior to that. Takes a step up in grade today but looks to have ideal conditions, I think he is as likely a winner as any in this line up and 11/1 is probably a few points too big.

    Nap of the Day - Thursday 12th March 2015

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Thursday 12th March 2015 14:05 Cheltenham - Junction Fourteen (40/1 Bet365) 1pt Win A touch disappointing the last twice, but did catch my eye last time out when looking a likely winner before tiring close home. There are a few lines of form that put him well ahead of some shorter priced rivals today and this will have been the target all season.

    Nap of the Day - Wednesday 28th Jan 2015

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Wednesday 28th Jan 2015 3:10 Chelmsford - Magnus Maximus (14/1 BetVictor) 1pt Win Has run promisingly on two runs for new yard, was never really put into the race on the first occasion and ran very well in the face of a stiff task at the weights lto despite the rider dropping the whip near the end. A bare reading of the form of that race suggests that he should be able to go very close off this mark today especially considering that there could be further improvement in the tank after only two runs for the yard. Should have no problem with conditions and is the only ride on the card for the evergreen John Egan.

    Nap of the Day - Sunday 19th October 2014

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Sunday 19th October 2014 4:10 Bath - Heartsong (11/2 Boylesports) 1pt Win Won three starts back despite meeting massive trouble in running, then found only a well handicapped Eastern Dragon too good on her next run before scraping home to beat Tagula Night by a narrow margin LTO. Tagula Night has gone on to win twice since - off a 6lb higher mark most recently so my selection has to be feasibly handicapped off only a 3lb higher mark than for that victory. A review of the Heartsong's best historical form also suggests that a mark of 71 is not beyond the limits of her ability and she looks to have optimal conditions today in terms of trip and ground conditions. Slight concern with regards to a quite large absence to overcome but early market vibes are reasonably positive and John Gallager has had a good season with limited ammunition. If she's ready to run to her best after the break I think she can go very close.

    Nap of the Day - Thursday 9th October 2014

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Nap of the Day - Thursday 9th October 2014 7:20 Wolverhampton - Energia Eros (100/1 Betfred) 1pt Win I was initially drawn to Compilicit in this race as he goes well on the AW and gets a few pounds from his main market rivals, but he is no value at the current prices and needs to improve on what he has shown so far anyway. I am willing to take a massive leap of faith on Energia Eros at a massive price, he has shown absolutely nothing in his previous three starts when trained by Marco Botti, but he is now switched to John Berry's yard and takes a sizable drop in class. It is very hard to know what to make of his previous form in Brazil but he was good enough to win a Group race out there and if he can recapture anything like that form here he must have a better chance than the current odds suggest. It is a big "if" and he is probably far more likely to finish last but at 100/1 it is well worth a speculative interest imo.

    Calculus' Flat Season 2014

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 So I ended up being a lot busier writing up my thesis than I had expected and this thread got deprioritised as a result. Anyway the thesis has been handed in now and I can start back on my preferred type of studying again :) Bit out of touch with the racing at the moment and I think this thread has run its course anyway so will probably start a new thread for the AW racing over the winter in a few weeks. Reasonably happy with the results on this thread, but things definitely went downhill in the last couple of months - apologies to anyone who was following! There are a few lessons I have learned though and I think it has been a productive exercise in general. One last one before I sign off... I Really fancy American Hope today in the 3.50 at Ascot - thank me later ;)

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