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fishy25

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  1. Re: French Open 2012 Very fortunate to avoid a disaster today with the bets. Thank God Fed and Djokovic came back from the dead otherwise the bookies would have had a field day. Think the pair winning helped quite a few of us in here today. Tbh though, I'm actually pleased I've come out with a loss from today, as I still have that tendency to make unnecessary bets like I did today. If I thought Kerber was going to win, why not just stick with the outright on her or just the small handicap? Surely that would have been enough? Very very stupid from me and I feel taking a loss from it is the best way to learn and to cut out those kind of things. Can take a bit of credit out of the fact both bets on my original shortlist came through albeit narrowly. -2.30 for me today then given the carelessness, which brings me back a touch to +5.25 for the tournament. Been a bit of discussion amongst a few of us in the livescore thread over the matches tomorrow. I probably won't take any bets until tomorrow morning when I know for definite the conditions and the weather. But as it stands, I'll be looking into the overs in both men's matches, particularly the all Spain clash depending on the lines.

  2. Re: French Open 2012 Livescore Thread Yeah the overs is at 38.5/39.5 atm, which doesn't look that high. Could get covered quite comfortably in 4 sets you feel. Don't anticipate either guy doing this in 3 or an easy 4. Astonishing to think Murray hasn't played his vintage 5 set match either yet so tomorrow might be the day. With regards to the other quarter final, I'm thinking the overs might be my biggest bet of the tournament so far. Almagro playing really well atm, serve is effective and should push Nadal for a while. One tight set could bring the overs in with ease. Any thoughts?

  3. Re: French Open 2012 Livescore Thread Yeah credit to Errani, but don't get Kerber's tactics at all today. Playing moonball with Errani in particular baffled me and why she didn't move the Italian round the court more is a mystery. Break up at 4 different times in that second set and couldn't consolidate any. Really poor from the German. Also not the biggest fan of her constantly applauding Errani for her shot selection. Do it at the end of the match, not during. Really think that gives your opponent a psychological edge tbh.

  4. Re: French Open 2012 Couple for the men, already been mentioned so won't go into any great detail. Besides Kerber is playing terribly and looks like she's gunna f*ck me over anyway so not in the best mood :lol Roger Federer (-4.5 games) to beat Juan Martin Del Potro- 4/5 StanJames- (4/10) Can only see a Federer win in truth in this one and I expect him to do it comfortably come the end of the match. Although the Argentine's knee doesn't look to have hampered him in his previous matches, none of the players he's faced have been able to test his movement properly like Federer will do today with his slices, variation and drop shots. He just knows how to play against the Argentine, which is shown through the fact that he hasn't dropped a set against him in the previous 5 matches, including 4 this year. Granted the great one hasn't been anywhere close to his best so far in the tournament, but the match-up is a terrible one for Del Potro here. Berdych really didn't play well against him and tbh, I think both of the guys here in Del Potro and Federer will have been glad by that result as Berdych in my eyes would have provided a much harder test for Federer. Del Potro potentially could win a set here, but as the match progresses, I'd fancy Federer to click into gear and take over so the handicap for me here. Novak Djokovic (-6.5 games) to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga- Evens StanJames- (4/10) On grass I'd give the Frenchman a shot here but on clay, he hasn't really got the game to trouble the top 4 even in his home tournament. Not sure if he'll be tired or fatigued after the Wawrinka match or not, but even so, there's no way I see Djokovic playing as badly as he de did against Seppi as by his own standard, he was terrible. Was extremely vulnerable on serve and made so many uncharacteristic errors that he'll want to get sorted here. I watched the Tsonga match against Fognini last week and he really didn't impress me either as he threw in too many poor service games for my liking. Djokovic beat the Frenchman on clay just a few weeks ago, cruising home in the end and even if Tsonga pinches a set, I would expect the Serb to take one set relatively easily and really try and click into gear ahead of Federer in a couple of days to avenge the defeat from last year.

  5. Re: French Open 2012 Had a proper look at the matches today this morning and have taken a few. Haven't been able to call any of the women's matches right thus far, so hopefully Kerber can change that given the confidence I have in her. I'll post those bets up first and then do the men's in another post given they don't start for a while. Angelique Kerber (-1.5 games) to beat Sara Errani- 5/6 Bet365- (5/10) Angelique Kerber (-4.5 games) to beat Sara Errani- 9/4 Ladbrokes- (3/10) Angelique Kerber (-6.5 games) to beat Sara Errani- 5/1 Ladbrokes- (1.5/10) Fair to say I think the German will win this one. :lol If she doesn't, well I'm going to come out looking like a fool given all of the 3 bets involving her winning pretty comfortably but the prices don't look right to me. The German has really come into many tennis fan's eyes over the back of last season and this season and it's hard to imagine her not breaking the 8 or even 5 by the time the year's out. She has played some stunning tennis already this year, already winning 2 titles, whilst beating the likes of Bartoli, Sharapova, Wozniacki and Li in that time as well which shows just how good she is. Her clay form has been excellent as well, and that's underlined by the quality of players she's lost to. On clay, the only players that have beaten her are Li, Stosur, Kvitova and Sharapova which paints it own picture really. In that time, she's actually beaten Kvitova, along with Vinci, Goerges and Venus as well and if she keeps out that form, I find it hard to see how Errani will beat her. Extremely good defender the Italian but last week she showed that she's not all about keeping balls into play as you don't beat Ivanovic and Kuzzy just by doing that. It has to be said though, both of the mentioned women made a ton of errors, and you feel that Kuznetsova probably was suffering from the hangover of beating Radwanska as we see so often when a player beats a top name, they struggled in the next round. What really leaps out at me is the fact that Ivanovic hammered the Italian in the first set 6-1, which sort of says to me that if Kerber can find her ground strokes, it will be hard to Errani to cope with it as she won't have hit many winners and will be vulnerable on serve. I mentioned that Kerber beat Vinci a few weeks back 6-2 6-3, well Vinci's game is not too dissimilar from that of Errani's which shows that it's a decent match-up for the German. She hammered Errani in their previous meeting 6-1 6-2 at the start of the year on a quicker surface, so I'm not entirely sure what Errani is going to do to trouble her opponent on a slower surface in all honesty. The point that she's beaten 2 grand slam winners before this also makes me think that her run won't last forever, and she's due a weaker performance. Kerber will know this is a really good chance of making the semis of a slam and perhaps a final now given Radwanska and Azarenka have gone so I fancy her to really be focussed on court today. I considered backing her for the outright at the 1.70 mark but if she wins, I fancy her to cover the minimal (1.5) line which is a slightly better price, and given the prices offered by Ladbrokes look way out of line given the fact Kerber has already hammered Errani once this season, just one really comfortably set for the German could really bring the other handicaps into play and hopefully bring rewards at such attractive prices. If not, Errani will just win and make me look like a bit of an idiot really, but let's hope that doesn't happen.

  6. Re: French Open 2012 Interesting to hear some thoughts on the quarters tomorrow. Currently debating whether to take handicaps on both favourites in Djokovic and Federer. Not totally sure if Tsonga will be 100% tomorrow after that Wawrinka match. Could be a case of a mental hangover perhaps, although the crowd will give him all the support in the world. From what I've seen of him though, he hasn't been playing well enough to beat the top 4. With regards to the other match, just strikes me as a nightmare for Del Potro. Not taken a set of Federer this year so the mental thing comes into play. (led one of the tie-breaks in Dubai by a huge margin and still lost it) Add to that his knee problem which Federer will exploit with slices and drop shots and I struggle to see the Argentine having too much success. Would have actually fancied Berdych to beat Roger if he had beaten Del Potro but think quietly, Federer will be alot happier to see that it's Del Potro over the other side of the net tomorrow.

  7. Re: French Open 2012

    Hi folks - I'm here to ask for an opinion as I don't usually bet on tennis. Had a pre-tournament combo bet on first 3 seeds to reach semis @ 2.05' date=' stake: 10. So far so good but I think that especially Federer looks fragile and with Del Potro being much younger than him, a sort of rising star I wonder if it's worth trading it out. Odds aren't great @3.4 with B365 so do experience tell you that I should wait as people will take Federer and odds on Potro will rise or maybe I should wait till the game and see if Fed can have a good start and then trade it or just let it run?[/quote'] I'd probably leave it tbh mate - don't see Federer losing against the Argentine tomorrow. Despite beating Berdych, he still isn't 100% and didn't actually have to do anything special to beat the Czech. Fed hasn't even dropped a set against Del Potro this year in 4 meetings and although he may drop 1 tomorrow, I'd be really surprised if he didn't come through. With regards to the other 2 involved in the bet, Djokovic should beat Tsonga pretty comfortably despite getting taken to 5 by Seppi as Tsonga really isn't playing that well. Ironically, I actually think Nadal will have the hardest test in Almagro and although I expect Rafa to pull through, Almagro is playing some decent stuff at the minute and I think will push him. All 3 should be fine though I imagine :ok
  8. Re: French Open 2012 Far better results today personally, well after Murray got his usual crappy first set out of his system. Granollers was shattered as expected and didn't see the Nadal match tbh but the scoreline gives a good indication of what happened there. Really disappointed with Tipsarevic though, the Serb really didn't play well and was broken far too often after being 30-0 up. Regardless, the rest made up for that and gave me +7.55 today, which takes me onto +5.96 for the tournament with the Berdych outrights settled as well. Hopefully that profit will develop a bit more in the quarters, semis and finals.

  9. Re: 2012 Clydesdale Bank 40 Yeah Notts' p*ss poor bowling did us over a bit there to be honest. Was really bad in parts and then the top 4 barely making anything was really disappointing. Today sets me back a touch so now on +0.40 for the tournament.

  10. Re: French Open 2012 Yeah if your gut is telling you overs, go with it definitely. I have a feeling it will be fairly comfortable for Ferrer though but given my recent bets, Granollers will probably win in 5 :lol I've taken 3 others tomorrow as well for the men's side of things in what looks to be quite a good billing given we have the Tsonga-Wawrinka and Berdych-Del Potro matches to finish as well. Andy Murray (-3.5 games) to beat Richard Gasquet- 10/11 StanJames- (6/10) Paddy Power have this handicap a game lower it's worth me mentioning but I don't have an account with them and I think Murray will cover both lines anyway. It's almost impossible for me to ignore this kind of line on Murray against Gasquet really despite the Frenchman beating him a few weeks back in Rome. The truth of the matter is that Murray owns him really. Ever since that match at Wimbledon where Murray came back from 2 sets down, he's had the Frenchman's number and I'm sure there's something that's always lurking at the back of Gasquet's head telling him he can't beat Murray in a grand slam. That's epitomized by the fact he lost from 2 sets up again in the French a couple of years back and in my eyes, there's a mental problem for Gasquet in this match-up. It's interesting to note that Gasquet has won every single tour event against Murray other than the 3 grand slam matches which really says it all to be honest. Watched most of the match between the 2 in Rome and I'm not sure how Murray didn't win even though he was struggling with injury. In that first set, he was a break up and virtually had break points in all of Gasquet's service games and you have to feel if he wasn't struggling, he would have hammered the Frenchman. Now I know he's not 100% now either, but he didn't seem to have any problems against Giraldo which was a good sign and there's not been any talk of the problems worsening so I think he'll be fine for this one at least before facing Ferrer. Gasquet played some good stuff against Haas before the German ran out of steam but the problem for him against Murray is how far back he stands on the baseline which you really can't do against the Scot. Murray's variety and ground strokes are far better and more consistent that Gasquet's so standing well back and playing the rallies isn't going to work. Like I've said, it's arguably more of a mental problem for Gasquet here than anything else, and whilst I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a set, even if this went to 4 or 5 sets, Murray could quite comfortably cover this rather timid handicap as I expect him to make it 4-0 in the grand slam H2H between the two. Rafael Nadal (-9.5 games) to beat Juan Monaco- 4/5 StanJames- (4/10) Pretty good friends the two of these are but I fear for the Argentine here. Backed Nadal in the previous round with the handicap which he didn't cover, but I'm willing to give him a second chance for a few reasons. The first being that he himself, and Uncle Tony will know he didn't play well enough against Schwank. He started off well, but as the match progressed, more errors came into his game and on return, it simply wasn't what we have come to expect from the Spaniard so I really expect him to fix that and play a couple of levels above what he played against Schwank. Monaco is also coming off the back off a gruelling match against Raonic, which will have exhausted him, especially after not having it completely his own way against Rufin and Rosol before that. The thing that worked so well for Schwank against Nadal at times was the serve and volley, and the drop shots forcing Nadal to move about. Monaco won't be doing any of that and will stick to the baseline rallies which you simply cannot do against Nadal on clay as once he gets onto his forehand, it's lethal. The H2H really shows how Monaco has struggled against Rafa, as in the 3 matches played on clay, he has failed to more than 3 games in any set, and in each match, Rafa has run away with at least 1 set, if not all 3 as he did in the Davis Cup at the back end of last year. The Argentine has played well recently, taking a set of Djokovic and beating Raonic here in Paris, but it's hard to see Nadal being too tested here. Monaco may have the ability to keep it close for a set, but given how I expect Rafa to really tighten up his game from the previous round, I think he'll win a couple of them with plenty to spare which should see the handicap through. Janko Tipsarevic vs Nicolas Almagro- Over 38.5 games- 5/6 Stan James- (4/10) Think this will be the match of the round and can't wait to see this one. I actually think Almagro will win come the end of the match and considered backing the Spaniard on the handicap but at closer inspection, the overs look a better choice to me. Almagro beat Mayer in the previous round so easily it's untrue. He was never under any sort of pressure and just had way too much for him and he is playing really well at the minute and that's shown by the fact he didn't drop a set last week which is unusual for him to do in a slam. Tipsarevic hasn't been as convincing, with Querrey and Chardy making him work and Benneteau probably should have made the match longer than it actually was in the previous round but his confidence must be sky high right now given that he is on a 7 match winning steak on the clay. As I've said, I do expect Almagro to beat him, but this will be the first serious test for the Spaniard so far and it'll be interesting to see how he copes with it. Lorenzi and Baggy managed to trouble him in parts of their matches, and Tipsarevic is a good couple of levels up from them. Have a feeling both will be fairly solid on serve throughout to be honest which should lead to a tie break or two, and given how I don't expect to see any less than 4 sets, perhaps all 5, think the overs should be covered in what could lead to a really good quality match here.

  11. Re: French Open 2012 Seppi-Djokovic match was a little different tbh mate. From the stuff I saw, Djokovic made so many errors early given his high standards and he was broken on a regular basis throughout the first half of the match. Problem for Granollers is Ferrer is the hardest working player out of the top players and will make his opponent run and run all day long and isn't going to make many unforced errors. Watched the final set of his match against Mathieu and you could see just how tired he was by the fact he tried to serve and volley when ever possible due to lack of energy around the court. Perhaps could have been the adrenaline that saw him through that one, but I sort of expect a bit of a hangover from the Jaziri match on top of the Mathieu victory tomorrow. Have to remember that Ferrer is arguably the freshest guy in the entire tournament right now - hasn't dropped more than 4 games in any set in Paris. Up to you if you do decide to take the overs, but things to consider there.

  12. Re: French Open 2012 Looks like another tricky day today betting wise with Djokovic and Federer dropping sets. Glad they've stopped playing in the Berdych match as with the way things were going, Del Potro could have won that fourth set in no time at all. Hopefully a change of day will bring a change in momentum. I've got my eye on a few tomorrow so waiting on the lines/prices and what not. Have taken one just now and will put that up here as the line won't last for too long. David Ferrer vs Marcel Granollers- Under 28.5 games- 8/11 Bet365- (4/10) I would have been happy taking the unders on a 27.5 line here so the extra game is a bonus. Taking the unders are always a tad risky in slams but it's hard to see Granollers having anything left to push Ferrer in any way. He is coming off the back of 2 absolute epics against Jaziri and then Mathieu, and that match against the Frenchman will have tired him out physically and mentally as he had to cope with the crowd in that one. You could see just how tired he was in that fifth set against the Frenchman, serving and volleying whenever he could and taking plenty of time between points on serve. He had a little extra than what the Mathieu had which saw him through but if there's anyone he wouldn't have wanted to play it would have been David Ferrer. The little Spaniard is an absolute nightmare to play when you're far from 100%, as he'll run for everything and push you all over the court which is the problem for Granollers here given the amount of tennis he's been forced to play last week. Even at your peak fitness, a match with Ferrer will exhaust you and given how Granollers must be feeling the effect of his 14 sets already played in Paris, I fancy Ferrer to win this with plenty to spare. 6-4 6-3 6-3 even covers this line which looks really good to me so I'll back the unders here.

  13. Re: 2012 Clydesdale Bank 40 Not really got going in the tournament yet so hoping to put that right in the couple of TV matches this week before the T20 gets started. Currently sitting on +4.90 though and taking 3 in the Notts-Durham match to try and make that figure a bit healthier. Nottinghamshire to beat Durham- 4/5 William Hill- (4/10) I honestly can't work out why Notts are only slight favourites given the way Durham are playing just at the minute. Bottom of the Championship table with yet another defeat to Lancashire yesterday in the dying moments will not have done their dressing room any good yesterday and it'll be interesting to see just how they can pick themselves up for this one. They've gone better in the CB40 however and a win here could take them to second in the table but I don't expect them to pick up the 2 points today. They are up against a Notts side who's batting line-up is filled with quality throughout and it actually wouldn't be a horrendous one day international batting order it's that good. James Taylor who is still absent from the England set up (God knows how) played as good an innings as you will ever see in the shorter format against Hampshire and that showed that even if a couple of the top order don't get many, there are always another 3 or 4 who can take games away from a team amongst their ranks. Durham on paper have a super bowling attack, yet as Kev mentioned, they leak runs just like they did against Scotland who put together a big score which aren't good signs for Durham. Graham Onions is the only one who has really performed for them thus far, and he was forced to bowl a ton of overs yesterday against Lancashire so he may not be fully fresh for this one. Notts' batting is just so good for me to not take them in this one. They could well score runs for fun given what Scotland did to this Durham attack last week and although their bowlers aren't as good as Durham's on paper, the batting quality makes a huge difference so I'll back Notts to further Durham's misery here. Notts (Most 6's) vs Durham- 4/1 StanJames- (3/10) Well StanJames have literally just as I'm writing this fixed the price but the 4/1 was available over night right up until now so I'm hoping they won't void this if it does indeed come through. I probably would have backed Nottinghamshire in this market anyway as you can get the price above evens so it's worth writing this bet up. As been mentioned, the top 7 of Notts is as good as any county side, and arguably some international sides with some already capped England players in it and also some stars of the future as well. I really like them in this market for a couple of reasons. The first being the seeming ease that Scotland had in scoring 250 against this Durham, which included 5 6's on this very ground, so if Durham don't vastly tighten up, it's a little frightening to think what Notts are going to score here. The second main reason is the amount of players Notts have who can clear the ropes as the likes of Hales, Lumb, and Wessels at the top of the order are natural attackers, whilst they also have Samit Patel, Chris Read and James Taylor, who hit 7 on his own against Hampshire. You can even add Voges, Franks and Mullaney to that list of players who can hit a long ball so in this side, you have potentially 9 players who can all contribute to the maximum count for Notts. Durham are without Ian Blackwell who is one of the biggest hitters in county cricket which helps this bet, so that really only leaves Mustard, Collingwood and maybe Benkenstein on the list for Durham who could potentially trouble this bet. Granted Durham's bowlers are the more experienced, but as we've already seen this season, one of the lesser sides in Scotland had no problem whatsoever in hammering them about so given the price I got, and the price that is above evens on Notts here, I think they are good value to win this little battle. Over 11.5 Wides- 5/6 William Hill- (3/10) Think this line looks a little low to me given the crap Durham have bowled already this season. Already in their matches, their wides total has been 8,8 and 11 which shows why this line is on the low side given the trends of this season. It's not too much of a surprise either, given Plunkett and Harmison can spray the ball around to all parts and with the spinners, there is always a chance of a four wides somewhere in the match. Notts are resting Andre Adams and Fletcher is still injured so in that, both of their experienced and on the money bowlers are missing which leaves the more inexperienced likes to cope with the ball so there's always going to be a chance of a few of them throwing some down the leg side. The bet is more about Durham and their bowling performances this season and given the amount of wides they have bowled thus far, I'm happy to back the overs.

  14. Re: French Open 2012 Really frustrating today. Almagro kicked the bets off nicely but then Haas didn't have enough left in him to win just the 3 games in 2 sets required for the overs but really annoyed that Nadal couldn't cover the handicap given how easily he won the first set. Thankfully Granollers pulled through in the end but do feel for Atko as when your pick loses after coming back from 2 sets down and then loses the final one it's horrible. Reminded me of Bogomolov against Llodra at the AO earlier this year. Really thought this was the day to fill my boots but really wasn't to be and now I'm sitting on a tame +0.91 for the tournament after such a good start. Not even bothering to look at tomorrow's card as I get the feeling I need to have a day off given the recent results. Same thing happened last year with the French in that I started off really well but then faded massively so hoping a day off will prevent that from happening. Will watch the Berdych match and hope he wins given the outrights, but that will be my only interest tomorrow and I'll stick to watching the cricket tomorrow. GL to those who get involved tomorrow :ok

  15. Re: 2012 Clydesdale Bank 40 Nothing for me in the tv game. Annoying that more markets aren't available tbh but will hold off until the Durham-Notts match on Sunday. Super calls this week Kev btw, sorry I didn't congratulate you after the Hampshire match. Excellent calls and a couple of top bats in a few days. Superb :clap:clap

  16. Re: French Open 2012 A further 3 from me then to add to Granollers who is now favourite with most places. Couple of these have already been mentioned. Rafael Nadal (-11.5 games) to beat Eduardo Schwank- 10/11 Ladbrokes- (7/10) My biggest bet of the tournament so far but I feel Nadal warrants it in this one and I don't see Schwank winning many games at all here. Even when fully fresh, his serve is a worry so Nadal will be all over it like a rash whilst you really don't expect the Argentine to get much out of the rallies either. You have to wonder how fit or tired as the case may be Schwank is, given he has had to come through qualifiers in Paris as well as a couple more matches on top of that as well. 5 matches is a pretty tough ask to then be put against the king of clay. Schwank hasn't even been having the best time of it on the challenger tour this year an in at least two of the sets here, I'd be expecting Nadal to win in it in no time at all. The Spaniard has covered this line against both Bolelli and Istomin, and I fancy him to do the same again here. Nicolas Almagro (-6.5 games) to beat Leonardo Mayer- 4/5 StanJames- (4/10) Seen enough of Almagro now to back him, given I've gone against him in both of his previous matches. The good sign for the Spaniard is that he hasn't dropped a set thus far, which given his history is an achievement as he usually lacks the concentration in 5 set matches against lesser opponents. Because he hasn't though, says to me his focus is there and his head is in the right place. His serving has generally been quite good this week, a touch better than his baseline ground-strokes but hopefully that will improve with the more tennis he plays. Mayer has played a fair bit of tennis over the last couple of weeks, with the World Cup last week and then a couple of tight matches in Paris as well. I'd be surprised if that plays a part though, but the problem is Almagro is a few levels above him on the clay. Recently he's lost to the likes of Delbonis and received a battering from Mahut which aren't great results for the Argentine and you have to feel Almagro is going to have too much for him here. The Spaniard will get some cheap service games whilst he should be putting Mayer under more pressure on return I'd say. Not taking the unders because Mayer does have the ability to pinch a set I fancy, perhaps early on, but I expect Almagro to take on set by a couple of breaks which should see the handicap through. Tommy Haas vs Richard Gasquet- Over 36.5 games- 5/6 BetVictor- (4/10) The line is a little higher than what it was with some last night but it still looks too low to me. These two guys have played out so absolute classics in the past, with 5 set matches in the Davis Cup and then also at the US Open as well and a similar thing could be on the cards here again today. The problem like Dylan has said would be the fact that Haas has played 5 matches in Paris after having to qualify so one wonders how much he has left in the tank but it has to be said, none of those 5 matches were anything but comfortable for the German so I think he should be okay in truth. Hammering Stakhovsky is a good sign for Haas as the Ukrainian is pretty solid all round so beating him so easily would have been pleasing, even if Stak was suffering a hangover from beating Dolgopolov. Gasquet hasn't look superb in either match so far, and he was perhaps a little fortunate that Dimitrov was pretty much needing a wheelchair to move about on court in the final couple of sets. Think I'm right in saying, although I may be wrong that the Frenchman was ahead in the first set there so with him losing it, shows me that the concentration lapses that he is prone to are still there. I just don't see Gasquet, who I think eventually will come through this one doing this the easy way. Haas has been extremely good recently, beating the likes of Tsonga and Baghdatis so he should have more than enough about him to keep this close. At least 4 sets, and perhaps a breaker in there by my reckoning and think this line should be covered quite comfortably in the end.

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