ultravires
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Posts posted by ultravires
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Saturday 7 January 2012 Home Draw Away BPP 
Levante UD v Real Mallorca (17:00 GMT) 2.06 3.55 4.2 100.52 % Racing Santander v Real Zaragoza (17:00 GMT) 2.12 3.4 4.15 100.68 % Real Sociedad v Osasuna (17:00 GMT) 2.34 3.35 3.45 101.57 % Real Madrid v Granada CF (19:00 GMT) 1.08 19 34 100.80 % Málaga v Atlético Madrid (21:00 GMT) 2.3 3.45 3.5 101.04 % Sunday 8 January 2012 Home Draw Away BPP Rayo Vallecano v Sevilla (11:00 GMT) 3.3 3.4 2.4 101.38 % Getafe v Athletic Bilbao (15:00 GMT) 2.7 3.4 2.9 100.93 % Villarreal v Valencia (17:00 GMT) 3.25 3.45 2.4 101.42 % Real Betis v Real Sporting de Gijon (18:45 GMT) 2 3.5 4.6 100.31 % Espanyol v FC Barcelona (20:30 GMT) 16 7 1.25 100.54 % -
Friday 6 January 2012 Home Draw Away BPP Torino v AlbinoLeffe (11:30 GMT) 1.58 3.8 7.5 102.94 % Ascoli v Padova (14:00 GMT) 3.3 3.05 2.56 102.15 % Brescia v Crotone (14:00 GMT) 2.18 3.1 4.2 101.94 % Cittadella v Empoli (14:00 GMT) 2.5 3.05 3.35 102.64 % Gubbio v Bari (14:00 GMT) 3.15 3 2.6 103.54 % Nocerina v Pescara (14:00 GMT) 3.2 3.6 2.36 101.40 % Sampdoria v Varese (14:00 GMT) 1.91 3.25 4.9 103.53 % Sassuolo v Juve Stabia (14:00 GMT) 2.14 3.1 4.33 102.06 % Vicenza v Reggina (14:00 GMT) 2.64 3.05 3.15 102.41 % Hellas Verona v Modena (17:00 GMT) 1.83 3.3 5.5 103.03 % Grosseto v Livorno (19:45 GMT) 2.5 3 3.4 102.75 % -
Saturday 7 January 2012 Home Draw Away BPP Siena v Lazio (17:00 GMT) 3.45 3.2 2.48 100.56 % Internazionale v Parma (19:45 GMT) 1.42 4.7 10.5 101.22 % Sunday 8 January 2012 Home Draw Away BPP Udinese v Cesena (11:30 GMT) 1.49 4.4 9 100.95 % AS Roma v Chievo (14:00 GMT) 1.62 3.8 7.2 101.93 % Atalanta v AC Milan (14:00 GMT) 5.5 3.6 1.79 101.83 % Bologna v Catania (14:00 GMT) 2.48 3.25 3.4 100.50 % Cagliari v Genoa (14:00 GMT) 2.4 3.2 3.55 101.09 % Lecce v Juventus (14:00 GMT) 8 4.2 1.55 100.83 % Novara v Fiorentina (14:00 GMT) 3.2 3.2 2.64 100.38 % Palermo v Napoli (19:45 GMT) 3.3 3.4 2.5 99.71 % -
Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December I know. I was pretty horrified to see him starting the match tonight. I read that he set up two of the three goals, so I guess it further enforces the fact that Parma depend on him. It's a bit unfortunate that Maxi Lopez didn't score in what will probably be his last match for Catania.
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December The best one I use is: http://soccernet.espn.go.com/?cc=5739 You can use the bar toward the top of the screen to find the league and match that you want. This evening it was a bit crap though so I tried to use eurosport which turned out to be completely wrong. Usually, use that soccernet link about 30 minutes before the kick-off and it will have the confirmed XI's.
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December
I didn't watch any of the later kick-offs tonight so can't fully comment on the results. It doesn't look like this win was entirely in like with my thoughts. Parma scored 3 goals, but at least they conceded 3 as well.Catania +0.5 - 1.775 - 6 points - WIN Draw - 3.20 - 1 point - WIN Both Bet365
Unfortunately those two later bets ruined decent profit from the Parma match. In the end I finished just shy of 2 points in the green. Calcio takes a christmas break now so we'll all have a little rest. Congrats Azzurini - a very nice two days work for you.Under 3 goals - 1.950 - 3 points - LOSS Apologies if I put anyone off overs in this match. It doesn't look like unders was really on once Lecce scored early. Udinese win - 3.25 - 2 points - LOSS -
Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Wow. Ranieri has actually gone and started 4 CM's in the midfield. Poli-Cambiasso-Stankovic-Zanetti. You wouldn't think that they are about to play Lecce.
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December I'm having two more lighter bets tonight. The first is unders in Inter-Lecce. Contrary to my initial thoughts I now think there is value in unders for this one. Inter have been quite laboured in an attacking sense for a while now. Simply put, their problem is providing their strikers. Pazzini and Milito need to be served. Those two have had issues finding goalscoring form this season. Inter have improved their defensive issues to some degree though. Lucio and Samuel are strong. Nagatomo is a bit suspect but on the whole they are better than a couple of months ago. Inter are expected to maintain their boring midfield of Zanetti-Cambiasso-Motta. Coutinho is expected to join them on the left side but he may well drift inside. He will be the creative source in there and has been improving of late. I am kind of relying on how Lecce are expected to line-up in this match. They are mooted to play a 3-5-2 which I like the sound of. They can try to bog down the midfield and get a grip. Cuadrado and Brivio can push back to a make a 5-3-2 when on the back foot. In theory 3 CB's should be fine because Pazzini and Milito are not incredibly mobile so they wont pull defenders out position as much as others could. Having said the ability of those CB's is a potential issue so they will need protection. No doubt they will have their moments in the 90 minutes. Personally I'd like to see both Obodo and Strasser play in CM but it looks as though Olivera may get the nod ahead of the latter. I like both Di Michele and Muriel as players. Both are competent technically and will be a potential threat on the counter. Even so, I kind of expect them to have a hard night's work ahead of them. All in all I think Lecce can 'contain' Inter to a degree and if they line up like stated I'd like their chances of keeping the score down. Inter haven't ran through an opponent in quite some time and although initially Lecce looks like one that they could stomp - I don't think they will. I'd be impressed by Cosmi if he flex's his tactical awareness and lines up like that. I'm taking some extra cover though because I am never fully comfortable in the goal markets. Under 3 goals - 1.950 - 3 points - Bet365 There is no need to write anything further about Udinese-Juve as it has been covered superbly by other posters. I can't see Juve coming away with 3 points to be honest. Udinese are an imperious team at home and could be the perfect foil for Juve's key players (CM's). So I'll follow on the home win: Udinese win - 3.25 - 2 points - Bet365
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December I'm hoping to wait and squeeze a bit more out the price but Udinese at 3.00 or above is a joke tonight. I'm looking to get on them in some respect.
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December Parma vs. Catania Lost the price a little on this one over the last day. It still represents value to me though. This match has already had a bit said about it but I'll write a little more. First of all Giovinco is not going to start this match. He may make the bench, but that is also in doubt. Morrone and Paletta miss this through suspension. Both are first-team starters and they will be missed in CM and CB. Santacroce is expected to step in at CB and he hasn't had much game time this season. Having said that he does always look better at CB as opposed to RB. Valiani and Modesto are expected to hold the defensive wingers positions as Biabiani will drop off from Floccari up front. They played like punks at the weekend. Their main focus was organisation and it worked for the first-half. They went further into their shells after HT and Lecce broke them down eventually. Parma did show spirit to come back to 3-3, but they showcased little skill as a team (IMO). Given their cautious approach to football they struggled to create plenty of chances against a side (Lecce) that are not strong defensively. Catania beat their rivals Palermo 2-0. I didn't watch them match but when I have seen Catania so far, they have been decent. They have a good attacking trio in Gomez, Lopez and Barrientos. They also have a relatively decent midfield with Almiron and Lodi ticking things over without Biagianti. They have played pretty well away from home this season. They have only lost to Genoa and Milan, while obtaining draws away to Atalanta, Fiorentina and Lazio. They should be in good spirits after their derby win and they'll certainly look at this match as another chance to grab a win. I don't think Parma have what it takes to win this match. They are a limited side and have a cautious approach. Catania can happily sit and look to counter with their attacking talent. I think the value is more with the draw as opposed to the away win in this one. Catania +0.5 - 1.775 - 6 points Draw - 3.20 - 1 point Both Bet365
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December @ Dylan Off the bat I did think of goals in the Inter-Lecce match. In terms of how they played against Parma, Lecce did try and get on the ball and play. Parma were very organised in the first half and Lecce struggled to break down their two banks of 4. There was some terrible defending to give the penalty away though. They persisted in the second half and broke through 3 times quite quickly. They then managed to throw it all away in the last few minutes. My lasting impression of their match was that they had a definite plan to try and outplay Parma. It was quite an adventurous plan that almost worked. They seemed weak in CM though. Oliveira was useless and too slow. Strasser tried his best to hold it down in there but they did lack some cohesion. If put on the back foot I've no doubt they would struggle as a team defensively. I think with the right game plan they have potential for a counter-attack strategy. I'm not too sure how well they will fair against Inter. Inter are way stronger defensively when they have Samuel and Lucio together. Their woes up front are quite well known though and if this is to go over I feel Lecce will probably have to score themselves. I'm not overly confident of that happening though to be honest. Gazzetta predict a midfield of Zanetti-Cambiasso-Motta-Poli. I thought Motta was suspended but if they line up like that then this match isn't going over IMO. That midfield makes no sense IMO. Zero creativity in there. I'd perhaps look to take Lecce on a handicap or unders because if Inter line up as predicted currently then I can't see them giving Lecce a spanking. I'll probably leave this match alone though, they are just my thoughts.
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December They were sloppy defensively which was their main issue. They also wasted numerous good chances. Roma played their best game under LE (IMO) and 3-1 is certainly not entirely reflective of the match. Napoli are without Lavezzi for a month though. My backing of them would be mainly due to how I view Genoa. If they still have important players missing then I'd fancy Napoli. However at those odds I doubt I'll go in.
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 20-21 December They are two of the stand out bets of this round for me as well. If Parma are without Gio again then I'll certainly be on them on a handicap and a little outright too. Perhaps even if they do have him back to be honest. I can kind of see Napoli ripping Genoa a new one, but I'm a bit shook from taking them given their current price.
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Tuesday 20 December 2011 Home Draw Away BPP AC Arles-Avignon v Istres (19:00 GMT) 2.72 3.15 3.05 101.30 % Amiens SC v FC Nantes (19:00 GMT) 2.4 3.1 3.6 101.70 % Angers SCO v FC Metz (19:00 GMT) 2.04 3.15 4.8 101.60 % RC Lens v LB Châteauroux (19:00 GMT) 1.81 3.5 5.4 102.34 % SC Bastia v Tours (19:00 GMT) 1.8 3.5 6 100.79 % Stade Lavallois v Le Mans FC (19:00 GMT) 2.34 3.25 3.6 101.28 % Stade Reims v Le Havre AC (19:00 GMT) 2.1 3.2 4.1 103.26 % US Boulogne v Troyes AC (19:00 GMT) 2.34 3.15 3.65 101.88 % AS Monaco v Clermont Foot (19:20 GMT) 2.5 3.25 3.4 100.18 % -
Tuesday 20 December 2011 Home Draw Away BPP AS Nancy v Olympique Marseille (20:00 GMT) 4.5 3.45 2 101.21 % Wednesday 21 December 2011 Home Draw Away BPP AJ Auxerre v Dijon FCO (18:00 GMT) 1.85 3.6 5.7 99.38 % Evian TG v Montpellier HSC (18:00 GMT) 3.6 3.25 2.4 100.21 % FC Lorient v SM Caen (18:00 GMT) 1.85 3.5 5.4 101.14 % Lille OSC v OGC Nice (18:00 GMT) 1.4 4.5 11 102.74 % Sochaux-Montbéliard v AC Ajaccio (18:00 GMT) 1.7 3.75 6.5 100.87 % Stade Rennais v Girondins de Bordeaux (18:00 GMT) 2.21 3.3 4 100.55 % Toulouse FC v Stade Brestois 29 (18:00 GMT) 1.9 3.3 5.5 100.87 % Valenciennes FC v Olympique Lyonnais (18:00 GMT) 3.35 3.25 2.5 100.62 % Saint-Étienne v Paris Saint-Germain (20:00 GMT) 3.75 3.25 2.4 99.10 % -
Re: Italy - Serie A - 17-18 December
That was a real bitch-ass performance from Parma. Two banks of four at home and they almost got what they deserved when Lecce opened a 3-1 lead. Can't quite believe they pulled it back to 3-3 with two late goals. Lecce played their way into a deserved lead but let it slip. Would have seen some nice profit on that match had they held on.Lecce +0.5 - 2.050 - 5 points - WIN Lecce win - 5.00 - 1 point - LOSS
A little aggrieved that this dropped too. Bologna did get a little ragged at the end but I think they were worth a point. They missed a couple chances to go 2-1 up and that cost them in the end. Overall I have just over 1 point of profit for the weekend. Not as much as it perhaps should have been but it's profit nonetheless.Bologna +0.5 - 1.900 - 3 points - LOSS -
Re: Italy - Serie A - 17-18 December I'd quite liked to have opposed Inter with that starting line-up. Oh well. I'm bracing myself to watch two potentially drab matches. I just hope the away teams do the business. :hope
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 17-18 December Genoa vs. Bologna Not a particularly appetising match. I think Genoa are being overrated by bookies in this one. They have a lot of selection issues tomorrow and are not in good form for this one. They really laboured to create any chances against Inter earlier in the week. Bologna will sit tight in this match and look to counter. Genoa are missing some important players creatively and will struggle to break the visitors down. Palacio is their main attacking outlet and he will be missing once more. Kucka and Birsa are also missing which limits creativity to Merkel and Rossi down the wings. Merkel is best deployed centrally and Rossi is an absolute workhorse but not someone who you would look to when breaking down a defence. Jankovic and Ze Eduardo will probably lead the line. Both have yet to find any rhythm this season. Caracciolo is a target man option from the bench. They aren't exactly settled defensively either. Kaladze and Granqvist are decent at times but can be very sketchy. Bologna have improved under Pioli. They are a typical counter-attacking side who rely on their attacking trident to win them points. They gave a stirring performance against Milan and earned a 2-2 draw courtesy of a GK howler. On the whole it was deserved. They tend to play 3 ball winners in midfield and simply provide Ramirez and Diamanti with the ball. They in turn look for Di Vaio who seems to have re-found his form a little recently. They are far from a great team but I think they have the players and game plan to get a result in Genoa. They have the three best attackers on the pitch and will sit back waiting for chances to break. Given Genoa's potential problems creating chances I am happy to take Bologna to gain a result. Bologna +0.5 - 1.900 - 3 points - Bet365
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 17-18 December Unlucky tonight Dylan - it could have been a great night for you. Fiorentina really are a spineless team. I'll be looking to fade them as much as possible when they don't have Jovetic. Atalanta were well worth a point. I think Fiorentina may have been a bit of a coupon buster tonight.
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Re: Italy - Serie A - 17-18 December I'm interested in underdogs this weekend. While I can't quite decide on Atalanta and Cesena, I am taking Lecce. Quite horrendous odds on Parma IMO. They do have a good home record, but they aren't a very good side. They have very few sources of creativity and will be without their main source as Giovinco is highly likely to miss the match. Everything runs through him and they have no adequate back-up. This means their game plan is now dependent on Biabiany down the right flank. He is a tricky player but it's very possible to get a grip on him. Without his balls into the box I don't think Parma will create many chances. Valiani (LM) is diabolical going forward and Morrone/Galloppa wont scare any teams either. Despite their incredibly dull attacking play they also have one of the worst D's in the league. They don't miss anyone besides Gio for this match. Lecce have the worst D in the entire league but I still prefer to back them in this one. Cosmi appears to be taking an interesting approach to this match. A 4-3-3 is being proposed. I would welcome a bold approach and he clearly thinks Parma are there for the taking. Lecce put on a fine display against Lazio last week and were well worthy of a point but lost 3-2 in the end. For a relegation battling team they do have a few decent attacking options. Muriel is a lively striker and Di Michele is a decent all round player. Cuardrado is a direct winger and Oliviera, Grossmuller and Giacomazzi are decent ball-players. A lot will depend on Strasser as the defensive midfielder. He's a strong boy but is still learning in this division. He should be fine for this match though. Lecce have a pretty dreadful record so far this season. The main reason for me backing them is that for all their defensive woes they do have a few sparks up front. They will have some work to do defensively but if they can try to maintain possession they will go a long way to getting a result. Parma will have a one dimensional attack in this game that could be dealt with. Lecce are a fragile team but I like them to cause some issues for Parma in this one. Anything below evens short for the home win IMO. Lecce +0.5 - 2.050 - 5 points - Bet365 Lecce win - 5.00 - 1 point - Bet365
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Friday 16 December 2011 Home Draw Away BPP Livorno v Brescia (19:45 GMT) 2.22 3.1 4.2 101.11 % Saturday 17 December 2011 Home Draw Away BPP AlbinoLeffe v Gubbio (14:00 GMT) 2.06 3.15 4.6 102.03 % Bari v Vicenza (14:00 GMT) 2.24 3.1 4.2 100.71 % Crotone v Ascoli (14:00 GMT) 2.07 3.15 4.5 102.28 % Empoli v Grosseto (14:00 GMT) 2.2 3.1 4.2 101.52 % Juve Stabia v Cittadella (14:00 GMT) 2.08 3.2 4.4 102.05 % Modena v Torino (14:00 GMT) 4 3.05 2.19 103.45 % Padova v Nocerina (14:00 GMT) 1.73 3.5 6 103.04 % Reggina v Sassuolo (14:00 GMT) 2.26 3.05 4 102.03 % Sunday 18 December 2011 Home Draw Away BPP Varese v Hellas Verona (11:30 GMT) 2.37 3.05 3.75 101.56 % Monday 19 December 2011 Home Draw Away BPP Pescara v Sampdoria (19:45 GMT) 2.45 3.75 3 100.82 % -
Friday 16 December 2011 Home Draw Away BPP Benfica v Rio Ave (20:15 GMT) 1.2 7.2 24 101.39 % Saturday 17 December 2011 Home Draw Away BPP Vitoria de Guimaraes v Gil Vicente (18:15 GMT) 1.8 3.6 5.4 101.85 % FC Porto v MarÃtimo (20:30 GMT) 1.26 6.4 15 101.66 % Sunday 18 December 2011 Home Draw Away BPP Feirense v União de Leiria (16:00 GMT) 2.4 3.2 3.3 103.22 % Nacional da Madeira v Vitória de Setúbal (16:00 GMT) 1.86 3.5 5.2 101.57 % Paços de Ferreira v Beira-Mar (16:00 GMT) 2.38 3.25 3.4 102.20 % Académica de Coimbra v Sporting CP (19:15 GMT) 5.8 3.85 1.73 101.02 % Monday 19 December 2011 Home Draw Away BPP Olhanense v Sporting de Braga (20:15 GMT) 5 3.5 1.85 102.63 % -
Friday 16 December 2011 Home Draw Away BPP De Graafschap v RKC Waalwijk (19:00 GMT) 2.7 3.55 2.82 100.67 % Saturday 17 December 2011 Home Draw Away BPP Heracles Almelo v Vitesse (17:45 GMT) 1.91 3.65 4.33 102.83 % NEC v VVV-Venlo (18:45 GMT) 1.45 4.8 8 102.30 % Roda JC v S.B.V Excelsior (18:45 GMT) 1.27 6.2 13.5 102.28 % FC Groningen v FC Utrecht (19:45 GMT) 1.61 4.4 6.2 100.76 % Sunday 18 December 2011 Home Draw Away BPP Ajax v ADO Den Haag (11:30 GMT) 1.19 8.2 18.5 101.63 % Feyenoord v FC Twente (13:30 GMT) 2.9 3.6 2.48 102.58 % NAC Breda v AZ Alkmaar (13:30 GMT) 4.6 4 1.83 101.28 % Heerenveen v PSV Eindhoven (15:30 GMT) 3.6 3.95 2.15 99.61 % -
Friday 16 December 2011 Home Draw Away BPP Cercle Brugge v KAA Gent (19:30 GMT) 3.3 3.55 2.3 101.95 % Saturday 17 December 2011 Home Draw Away BPP Lierse v Kortrijk (19:00 GMT) 2.7 3.35 2.84 102.10 % Sint-Truidense VV v KV Mechelen (19:00 GMT) 2.44 3.5 3 102.89 % Westerlo v Beerschot AC (19:00 GMT) 3.3 3.4 2.4 101.38 % Zulte Waregem v Mons (19:00 GMT) 2.12 3.6 4 99.95 % Sunday 18 December 2011 Home Draw Away BPP Standard de Liège v Racing Genk (13:30 GMT) 1.96 3.6 4.1 103.19 % Anderlecht v Lokeren (17:00 GMT) 1.33 5.4 12 101.85 % Oud-Heverlee Leuven v Club Brugge (17:00 GMT) 6 4.2 1.66 100.48 %
Portugal - Superliga - 6-9 January
in Other European Leagues Football Predictions
Posted