bowles10
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Posts posted by bowles10
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Re: Tipsters Leaderboard thanks Billy for the update tables etc not an enviable task i must admit. Hopefully everyone understands the rules & your ready reckoner on the days results is a great idea. Once again, keep it up as i know it takes a lot of time up.
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Re: Cheltenham Wednesday moscow would become the oldest winner for 28 years if he manages it. I still feel the other 2 will be hard to beat with my course favourite Azertyuiop to pip them both. Whatever you go with, looks a fascinating race.
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Re: Cheltenham Tuesday
my conclusions now are: Race 1 - Supreme Novices Hurdle Publican...............unpl Justified ..............unpl My way de solzen..unpl Race 2 - Arkle My Will........5th Kadount......UR Race 3 - Champion hurdle Back in front........unpl Race 4 - William Hill trophy chase Frenchmans Creek........unpl Tikram.................6th Jakari..................5th Race 5 - Cross country chase New race so no trends to follow. Look at course winners. Race 6 - Fred Winter Novices hurdle New race so no trends to follow. Again, course form may help. Strategy 1pt each way on all selections = 18pts staked -18pts - spectacular start! Always tomorrow! 
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Re: Tipsters Comp. Day 1 so far:cry next 3 races - come on give me a :dude great to watch though, especially with my dad who has had 2 winners & a 2nd:loon
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Re: Cheltenham Tuesday Cheers Billy, i think it also has another entry in a chase, so i'll be looking out for it. Looks a quality card as ever today, will be interesting to see if we can sustain a 4 day festival though. I'm sure the bookies will love it. It means i have to divide my stake money over 4 days instead of 3. I havent changed my mind on any of my selections today after reading the "press".
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Re: Tipsters Comp. Day 1 10pts win - Back in Front 3.15 5pts win - Publican 2.00 5pts ew - Frenchmans Creek 4.00 Reserve: Tikram 4.00 good luck all
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Re: Select a Stable
here's mine: 102 Azertyuiop Bankers 108 Sleeping Night Bankers 205 Back In Front Strong Fancies 208 Brooklyn Breeze Strong Fancies 231 Maximise Strong Fancies 243 Royal Paradise Strong Fancies 316 Distant Prospect Good Chances 318 Earthmover Good Chances 355 Tiutchev Good Chances 353 Supreme Serenade Good Chances 421 Kadount Outside Chances 429 My Will Outside Chances -
Re: Cheltenham Wednesday THE CORAL CUP - Avoid 5 year olds - no weight allowance. 50 have tried and failed since 1993. only 1 of these was placed. - Need to carry less than 11 stone. - Irish are very strong in this race. - 8 of the last 11 winners had no more than 3 prior runs and 2 of the other 3 had 4 runs - had their marks protected. - Hold up horses are favoured - ignore front runners. 10 12/3-614 Jack Dawson (IRE) 8 11 2 John Berry J Culloty242 11 13212-2 Fountain Hill (IRE) 6 11 2 P Nicholls 39 12 323-311 Supreme Serenade (IRE) 6 11 2 P Hobbs P Flynn39 13 6010-20 Dancing Bay 8 11 1 N Henderson 242 16 P1-1411 Ebinzayd (IRE) 9 11 0 L Lungo G Berridge28 17 401-540 Zibeline (IRE) 8 11 0 B Ellison N Fehily32 20 PU-0655 Royaleety (FR) 6 10 10 Ian Williams D R Dennis25 21 21-1626 Idole First (IRE) 6 10 10 Miss Venetia Williams A O'Keeffe32 26 2165-1 Distant Prospect (IRE) 8 10 8 A Balding A P McCoy109 30 111/3-05 Covent Garden 7 10 7 J Howard Johnson A Dobbin39 31 53-0313 Fairwood Present (IRE) 7 10 7 P Rothwell 10 33 13-F2F1 Dantes Reef (IRE) 9 10 5 A Martin 34 35 12-2230 Red Ruffles (IRE) 6 10 5 Noel T Chance 96 37 1-100 Team Tassel (IRE) 7 10 5 M Pipe 39 39 05-4361 Anatar (IRE) 7 10 4 M Pipe 26 taking the above stats into account, we are left with the above list to narrow down. If we start hitting that stat of horses 1st or 2nd LTO we are left with 11 13212-2 Fountain Hill 12 323-311 Supreme Serenade 16 P1-1411 Ebinzayd 26 2165-1 Distant Prospect 33 13-F2F1 Dantes Reef 39 05-4361 Anatar if we go with the stat that you only need 3 or less previous runs that season: 11 13212-2 Fountain Hill 12 323-311 Supreme Serenade 26 2165-1 Distant Prospect if we go with the stat of 11st or less, it leaves just one selection: Distant Prospect - best price 7/1 available most bookies.
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Re: Cheltenham Wednesday THE R&SA NOVICE HURDLE - 5 and 6 year olds have provided the winner of 27 out of the last 30 runnings. - Since 1970, the winner has been in the first two on its previous run. 1 4F-001 Akhtari (IRE) 5 11 7 D Hughes 29 2 111211 Ambobo (USA) 5 11 7 A Chaille-Chaille 46 3 4111 Bagan (FR) 6 11 7 C Mann N Fehily11 4 201361 Black Apalachi (IRE) 6 11 7 P Rothwell 24 5 3-41112 Brewster (IRE) 8 11 7 Ian Williams 46 6 3-12121 Darkness 6 11 7 C Egerton 41 8 1-011 Forager 6 11 7 M Ryan S Durack18 9 111 Gold Medallist 5 11 7 P Hobbs R Johnson20 10 311 Mephisto (IRE) 6 11 7 J Howard Johnson 11 11 P21151 My Way de Solzen (FR) 5 11 7 A King 12 121 No Refuge (IRE) 5 11 7 J Howard Johnson G Lee60 13 12 Olaso (GER) 6 11 7 Jonjo O'Neill 10 16 1-2131 Racing Demon (IRE) 5 11 7 Miss H Knight J Culloty72 19 11 Reveillez 6 11 7 J Fanshawe 58 22 4-11311 Royal Paradise (FR) 5 11 7 Thomas Foley M A Fitzgerald38 23 111-322 Secret Ploy 5 11 7 H Morrison 60 26 32412 Stan (NZ) 6 11 7 R Guest 74 27 121 The Market Man (NZ) 5 11 7 N Henderson 47 33 00111 Inch Pride (IRE) 6 11 0 M Pipe 41 35 11 Queen Astrid (IRE) 5 11 0 D Weld 13 by applying the usual winner or 2nd stat LTO & removing anything other than 5/6yo, we are left with the above, other notable recent trends are Irish based horses (5 out of last 7) & 1st 4 in the betting (13 out of last 15 novice hurdle wins at festival). Royal paradise, Queen Astrid, Akhtari, Black Apalachi, are all trained in Ireland. I would be interested in one of these at the moment. All of which have done their winning on soft ground, so it will be interesting how they handle faster ground unless the rain does come in time. Gold Medallist & Mephisto have great form here at home & would be thereabouts in a finish. Difficult to call at the moment.
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Re: Cheltenham Friday xodale - welcome to the PL & thanks for tipping the favourite! You will learn like most other newbies that unless it is a bets thread, you need to really post some form of analysis otherwise we end up with endless posts like yours. No offence meant, just saying what others will think. I will be glad to hear if your'e a racing fan as there are only a handful of us on here.
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Re: Cheltenham Tuesday my conclusions now are: Race 1 - Supreme Novices Hurdle Publican Justified My way de solzen Race 2 - Arkle My Will Kadount Race 3 - Champion hurdle Back in front Race 4 - William Hill trophy chase Frenchmans Creek Tikram Jakari Race 5 - Cross country chase New race so no trends to follow. Look at course winners. Race 6 - Fred Winter Novices hurdle New race so no trends to follow. Again, course form may help. Strategy 1pt each way on all selections = 18pts staked
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Re: Bowles HT/FT system Soton v Man Utd HT draw:( 0-2/ FT Man Utd @ 7/2 Wigan v Millwall HT draw :D / FT Wigan @ 7/2:D 1pt singles.........4.5pts return 1pt double.........0 pts return after 26 matches singles +1.00pt doubles -2.38pts accys - 1.00pt seem to be ok on the singles but going 3 or so games losing & getting it back with a winner hence the small profit still on singles.
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Re: Cheltenham Tuesday The decs are in, notable absentees are: race 1 are Queen Astrid & Royal paradise. race 2 lacdoudal (my trend tip). race 4 d'argent (ak's trend tip) look out for these later in the week when they tackle their alternative races.
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Re: Cheltenham Tuesday AK, something i noticed in this race may be that previous course form will count for something. That narrows the selections a bit with some having some great success over this difficult course. Marlborough 2 wins from career 11 wins Puntal 2 wins / 11 Hussard Collonges 1 win / 2 Tikram 1 win / 6 (record at Cheltenham is 57212202) Iris Bleu 1 win / 2 Jakari 1 win / 6 Frenchmans Creek 2 wins / 4 (record at cheltenham is 4313125 !!) Whereareyou now 2 wins / 4 (record at cheltenham is 96871104355) Spring Grove 1 win /8 Native Emperor 2 wins / 8 Therefore, this must be taken into account also. Frenchmans Creek (16/1) & Tikram (8/1) would have excellent chances each way in this race based on their course form. My personal fancy is Jakari whom I think has been lightly raced for a reason to come into this fresh. At 33/1 represents good ew value based on a 1/2l 3rd at Aintree in April behind Tikram 2nd on same terms as this race. If Tikram is 8/1 then Jakari is a big price IMO.
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Re: Cheltenham Wednesday AK, I really think this is Azertyuiop's race. The stats back it up & course form is superb 3 races - 3 wins 100% (2 at the festival also). Proved itself over 2m - 2m4f which suits Cheltenham with horses have to come up that hill. If Nicholls has him spot on, looks a great bet. I want 2/1 if I can get it & will be searching high & low, although 15/8 is near enough.
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Re: Cheltenham 2005 thats fine Aykay & the best way forward. I was using this thread myself as a bit of a personal diary to record my thoughts over the last few months etc:ok
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Re: Cheltenham Tuesday 2nd race Tuesday THE ARKLE - 17 of the last 18 winners were 1st or 2nd on their last completed outing. This trend would go back to 1970 had Borren Prince not swerved off the course when leading in its final prep race in 1985. - 6 year olds have a strong record in this race. Half of all six year olds to have run in the last 10 years have managed a placing. - Well Chief was the first 5 year old to win the race since their their allowance was cut from 8lbs to 5lbs - French breds have a good record. they have won the race 5 times and finished 2nd twice since 1993. taking the 1st important stat, we are down to the following: 1 441311 Almaydan 7 11 7 R Lee 48 5 223141 Kadount (FR) 7 11 7 A King 24 6 211132 Lacdoudal (FR) 6 11 7 P Hobbs 17 7 331F21 Limerick Boy (GER) 7 11 7 Miss Venetia Williams S Thomas17 8 3/3/-331 Ned Kelly (IRE) 9 11 7 E O'Grady 24 9 011111 River City (IRE) 8 11 7 Noel T Chance T Doyle142 12 222122 Supreme Developer (IRE) 8 11 7 Ferdy Murphy B Harding25 14 12F131 Town Crier (IRE) 10 11 7 Mrs S Smith 24 15 16-0112 Ulaan Baatar (IRE) 8 11 7 Mrs J Harrington 30 16 1102-11 War of Attrition (IRE) 11 7 M Morris 38 17 16-0111 Watson Lake (IRE) 7 11 7 N Meade 30 21 U13211 My Will (FR) 5 11 2 P Nicholls R Walsh52 23 13U-121 Mariah Rollins (IRE) 7 11 0 P Fahy 79 3 French bred horse above Kadount, Lacdoudal & My will. Kadount is 7, Lacdoudal is 6 & My Will is 5. Considering the stats, LACDOUDAL is the strongest contender here based on everything & the deciding age factor. Between these 3 at the mo on the trends. Although not certain to run in this actual race. LACDOUDAL also has course form to its name. 40/1 is a value price Each way.
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Re: Cheltenham Tuesday
1st race Tuesday Supreme Novices Hurdle Trend pointers 5 or 6 yo 1st / 2nd LTO Flat bred Irish 1st 4 in betting Just taking the 1st 2 of the above into consideration, we are left with: 1 4F-001 Akhtari (IRE) 5 11 7 D Hughes 28 7 240-112 Cherub (GER) 5 11 7 Jonjo O'Neill 88 9 131 Dusky Warbler 6 11 7 G L Moore J E Moore28 10 212411 Justified (IRE) 6 11 7 E Sheehy 44 13 511 Manorson (IRE) 6 11 7 O Sherwood J A McCarthy42 15 P21151 My Way de Solzen (FR) 5 11 7 A King 30 16 410-F11 Only Vintage (USA) 5 11 7 Miss H Knight J Culloty69 17 2 Perfect Storm M Pipe 6 11 7 18 122 Prins Willem (IRE) 6 11 7 J Fanshawe 31 D 19 313131 Publican (IRE) 5 11 7 P Fahy 23 21 4-11311 Royal Paradise (FR) 5 11 7 Thomas Foley 37 23 32412 Stan (NZ) 6 11 7 R Guest 24 1-111 Villon (IRE) 6 11 7 L Lungo A Dobbin 28 11 Queen Astrid (IRE) 5 11 0 D Weld 12 You are then left with the factors of the other trends. There are 5 irish trained horses above. Most are flat bred although not sure about all. 1st 4 in the beeting obviously narrows the case even further with only Justified & Publican in that position both of whom are irish trained, therefore trend wise (if you apply all) Justified & Publican stand the best chance of winning. I know it isnt that easy!! I have still to mae my mind up from: Royal Paradise, Publican, Justified, My Way De Solzen, Queen Astrid. Interesting M Pipe runner Perfect storm completely unexposed with only 1 run to date & 66/1 in most lists. -
Re: Cheltenham 2005 aykay - may be best if we have a day's trend thread otherwise this thread may become too many pages. keep this thread as discussion only. Paste the race thread details into the Tuesday trend thread & perhaps "lock" it. I also think a trend selection bet for each race with a 1pt stake & see how we fare after 24 races.
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Re: Cheltenham 2005 2nd race Tuesday THE ARKLE - 17 of the last 18 winners were 1st or 2nd on their last completed outing. This trend would go back to 1970 had Borren Prince not swerved off the course when leading in its final prep race in 1985. - 6 year olds have a strong record in this race. Half of all six year olds to have run in the last 10 years have managed a placing. - Well Chief was the first 5 year old to win the race since their their allowance was cut from 8lbs to 5lbs - French breds have a good record. they have won the race 5 times and finished 2nd twice since 1993. taking the 1st important stat, we are down to the following: 1 441311 Almaydan 7 11 7 R Lee 48 5 223141 Kadount (FR) 7 11 7 A King 24 6 211132 Lacdoudal (FR) 6 11 7 P Hobbs 17 7 331F21 Limerick Boy (GER) 7 11 7 Miss Venetia Williams S Thomas17 8 3/3/-331 Ned Kelly (IRE) 9 11 7 E O'Grady 24 9 011111 River City (IRE) 8 11 7 Noel T Chance T Doyle142 12 222122 Supreme Developer (IRE) 8 11 7 Ferdy Murphy B Harding25 14 12F131 Town Crier (IRE) 10 11 7 Mrs S Smith 24 15 16-0112 Ulaan Baatar (IRE) 8 11 7 Mrs J Harrington 30 16 1102-11 War of Attrition (IRE) 11 7 M Morris 38 17 16-0111 Watson Lake (IRE) 7 11 7 N Meade 30 21 U13211 My Will (FR) 5 11 2 P Nicholls R Walsh52 23 13U-121 Mariah Rollins (IRE) 7 11 0 P Fahy 79 3 French bred horse above Kadount, Lacdoudal & My will. Kadount is 7, Lacdoudal is 6 & My Will is 5. Considering the stats, LACDOUDAL is the strongest contender here based on everything & the deciding age factor. Between these 3 at the mo on the trends.
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Re: Cheltenham 2005 i will check later when I ask my Dad who knows breeding inside out. If you use the sporting life site it tells you what the breeding is, but lots of the names are not familar to me so they could be Irish, American, German etc. I would hope there is a link somewhere to this info.
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Re: Cheltenham 2005 i intend to give it a go, dependant on time. AK can do the 2 races he says he is doing. I am doing it anyway this year & will post as much info as possible. I am off work all week & hope to post the info the nigjt before or by 10am of the morning of the race. Cheers Guys PS the trends are based on the winner, not each way bets so i would say anything could be placed & therefore e/w selectors should not be discouraged by these stats.
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Re: Select a Stable you can also enter via racing post / weekender / RFO (phone & postal accepted) i will be having a go.
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Re: Cheltenham 2005 1st race Tuesday Supreme Novices Hurdle Trend pointers 5 or 6 yo 1st / 2nd LTO Flat bred Irish 1st 4 in betting Just taking the 1st 2 of the above into consideration, we are left with: 1 4F-001 Akhtari (IRE) 5 11 7 D Hughes 28 7 240-112 Cherub (GER) 5 11 7 Jonjo O'Neill 88 9 131 Dusky Warbler 6 11 7 G L Moore J E Moore28 10 212411 Justified (IRE) 6 11 7 E Sheehy 44 13 511 Manorson (IRE) 6 11 7 O Sherwood J A McCarthy42 15 P21151 My Way de Solzen (FR) 5 11 7 A King 30 16 410-F11 Only Vintage (USA) 5 11 7 Miss H Knight J Culloty69 17 2 Perfect Storm M Pipe 6 11 7 18 122 Prins Willem (IRE) 6 11 7 J Fanshawe 31 D 19 313131 Publican (IRE) 5 11 7 P Fahy 23 21 4-11311 Royal Paradise (FR) 5 11 7 Thomas Foley 37 23 32412 Stan (NZ) 6 11 7 R Guest 24 1-111 Villon (IRE) 6 11 7 L Lungo A Dobbin 28 11 Queen Astrid (IRE) 5 11 0 D Weld 12 You are then left with the factors of the other trends. There are 5 irish trained horses above. Most are flat bred although not sure about all. 1st 4 in the beeting obviously narrows the case even further with only Justified & Publican in that position both of whom are irish trained, therefore trend wise (if you apply all) Justified & Publican stand the best chance of winning. I know it isnt that easy!! I have still to mae my mind up from: Royal Paradise, Publican, Justified, My Way De Solzen, Queen Astrid. Interesting M Pipe runner Perfect storm completely unexposed with only 1 run to date & 66/1 in most lists.
Cheltenham Wednesday
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Cheltenham Wednesday Day two R&SA hurdle Royal Paradise Queen Astrid R&SA chase Trabolgan L'Ami Champion Chase Azertyuiop Coral cup Distant prospect Supreme serenade Fountain hill Kim Muir chase Maximise Bumper Snakebite Lennon Betting strategy 1pt ew on all selections except Azertyuiop (5pt win) 25pts staked