Lars
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Re: Royal Ascot 2014 ~ Day 4 Friday 20th Odeon (15:45) ran an absolute belter in the Dante Stakes after doing plenty from the front and although there could be issues with his temperament given how much he sweated up at York, he’s more than capable of much better and given how well that form has worked out subsequently, with the complete obviousness that he’ll improve for the step up in trip, he looks a fair bet at double figure odds today. This brother to Kite Wood (who went very close in the St.Leger when Mastery won it in 2009) has only three starts to date so is obviously open to improvement, but especially so considering his run last time out. He was sent out to lead and was clear coming into the home straight. He was headed quite a way out but stuck on really well to the line and was only beaten 3 lengths. The initial impression from that race that it was too messy a finish to take seriously, as they all really finished in a heap. I’d certainly agree that it could be the case, but the time of the race was better than that of a Fillies Group 2 over the same C&D that day and it does not seem that Odeon dawdled in front or that it was a poor Group 2. This is a tougher race and you wouldn’t want to see the same amount of sweating from Odeon here today, or would you ideally want him to go off so far in front. However, given a more conservative but positive ride, I think he can go really well. Given his stout pedigree, this trip ought to bring serious improvement, and the way he stayed on last time suggested that to be the case. There will be no issues with the quicker ground on both past evidence and on pedigree and with the Dante form working out so well, he looks seriously overpriced. My main worry about the likes of Adelaide and Snow Sky is they seem much more “speedier†types, who might not see out a well-run 1m4f Group race. The rest don’t look particularly convincing, the likes of Bunker who are shorter in the betting but look far from convincing stayers, while Eagle Top has something to prove after last time. Western Hymn has some doubts about the ground, alongside the fact it’s a pretty short turnaround from Epsom. Odeon will relish the step up in trip, showed last time that he’s more than capable of handling himself in Group races and is worthy of decent support at double figure prices. I’ve also backed him for the St.Leger, which is allegedly the long-term target. I think he could go close today, so a very small bet at 33/1 for the Doncaster race is probably worth doing. The feature race is the Coronation Stakes and although a bet that is risky considering we haven’t seen her since last season, this looks a weak Group 1 and My Titania (16:25) ought to win this before going on to greater things later in the campaign. This daughter of Sea The Stars was one of the stars of the John Oxx stable last season, which was a disappointing campaign for the County Kildare based handler, as he only ran at a 12% strike-rate in 2013 on turf. He generally runs closer to 20% and is operating at 19% this year in Ireland, so there’s every reason to suggest the yard are in better form now. Whatever the problems with the yard, My Titania shaped on her final start in 2013 that she was every inch a Guineas contender. She won a Fillies Group 3 at the Curragh very nicely, staying on strongly and looking an obvious candidate to improve further when upped in trip. Back in 3rd that day was the eventual Epsom Oaks runner-up, and although the runner-up hasn’t done too much since, it was probably a good race. She was a single-figure price for the 1000 Guineas earlier in the year but a bad scope, then soft ground forced her to miss the English and Irish Guineas respectively and although there has to be some concerns that she meets race-fit rivals here off a break, I think there is mileage with her current odds. The likes of Lightning Thunder are starting to look slightly “exposed†and that market leader is vulnerable to an improver. Being out of Sea The Stars, My Titania is always likely to improve from two to three and the fact she was so good last year (compared generally to her sires first crop), only gives out the impression that she’ll be a Group 1 filly this season. Horses such as Tapestry (excuses last time out) and Kiyoshi (absence) are huge dangers if they show the promise they had hinted at in 2013, but I just get the impression that My Titania might be a little bit special and I have no worries with siding with her. Even though she will get further in time, the mile trip is likely still to be suitable. To round off the day, Secret Art (17:35) may not be capable of improving from his highest ever handicap mark of 94 but the way in which his win came at Kempton over a mile on his penultimate start suggested he should be a force in these sorts of races and for a horse with fair Ascot form (off lower marks), he may be capable of improvement at this venue. The four year old hasn’t been with William Knight long and has raced exclusively over a mile in 2014. He had a relatively low-key reappearance when sent off the fairly short 12/1 in the Spring Cup at Newbury, where he was entitled to come on for the run anyway. In no uncertain terms he did so, absolutely bolting up at Kempton. Although off a 9lb lower mark than he has today, over a furlong further and on a completely different surface, there was so much to like about it. The victory wasn’t so much “on the bridle†but he was barely asked for an effort before he scooted away, staying on powerfully to score by 4.5 lengths. Last time out at Sandown, he was held-up in a slowly run race on soft ground, a surface he has never shown his best on and given that everything that could wrong, did go wrong, I do think it might be best to ignore it. Ascot as a track should suit Secret Art, he has form off marks in the 80?s last season at this venue, a half-length defeat to Morpheus over this C&D the pick of them, with form on a synthetic surface too, Ascot could well be his “track†on turf and there should be no complaints on that front. The 7f trip won’t be a problem too, as he doesn’t lack for pace, stays further than this (a handy trait to have at Ascot) and will likely enjoy a strongly run race given how nicely he travels. The faster ground is also an obvious plus and the general theme is that the draw bias favours his side (not convinced it actually exists), but at the very least he isn’t drawn in the unfavoured centre part of the track. I’m not saying Secret Art is a Group horse masquerading as a handicapper, but he looks to be generally progressive for William Knight and worthy of small support with plenty in his favour. Summary 15:45 Ascot - Odeon: 2pts @ 14/1 Skybet, BetVictor 16:25 Ascot- My Titania: 2pts @ 4/1 William Hill, Coral 17:35 Ascot – Secret Art: 1pt @ 25/1 Paddy Power, BetVictor
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Re: Royal Ascot 2014 ~ Day 1 Tuesday 17th Wrote this on Sunday - small enough race to cover the field here :ok The 2014 renewal of the St. James’s Palace Stakes on the Tuesday of Royal Ascot is an extremely interesting race, even though the disappointing number of seven declarations means it’s a smaller field than you’d expect for a race of its type. That being said, there’s quality everywhere you look and certainly worth analysis. I’ll start with the more prominent runners in the market. Kingman holds firm at the top of the market and the manner in his Irish Guineas success means that’s probably justified. He’s always come with a lot of hype surrounding him, from his debut success at Newmarket to his absolute demolition job in the Greenham at Newbury on seasonal reappearance. He’s had a few niggles in his career, not least the piece of bone that had to be removed from his foot but that’s not stopped some serious progression as a three year old. Although beaten by Night Of Thunder in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, he put in a fine run in defeat and was only beaten half a length. There could be no genuine excuses then, apart from possibly that he went for home too early (tenuous) and that form has been franked in no uncertain terms anyway and is well-known, with Australia winning the Derby, Kingston Hill finishing second in that race and The Grey Gatsby winning the French Derby. His Irish Guineas success was emphatic, winning with plenty in hand and never really looking in much danger. That being said, I do feel that performance is tainted somewhat by the fact his main rivals didn’t show up due to the ground. War Command pulled out, Night Of Thunder was being saved for this race and although Shifting Power was five lengths behind at the Curragh, and only around two and half back at Newmarket, which could be used to suggest Kingman was improving, it’s more likely that he handled conditions better than the rest. Kingman holds a strong chance but I wouldn’t be so keen to be taking prices of around 11/10 on him in this line-up, especially with a reversal of the 2000 Guineas form hardly set in stone and the fact that there’s another one, or possibly two horses in the race that get rather close to him at bigger odds. Night Of Thunder hasn’t been seen on the racecourse since Newmarket and that might be a canny move considering the soft ground that would have faced him in Ireland. Obviously a surprise winner at Newmarket when sent off 40/1, there were hints from his juvenile form that he would be top-class and although well-beaten in the Greenham, he must not have been as race-fit as some of the others and ran respectably then. Was said to have looked a picture in the paddock before Newmarket and although the fact he hung markedly in the finish, he won with a little bit in hand on the others. As previously mentioned, there’s plenty to like about that form and for such a strong race, you ought to think that he’d be a favourite here. Kingman may have gone on to improve over in Ireland, but there’s nothing to suggest that Night Of Thunder is an “early†type and one that will not carry on improving. There’s certainly not a great deal in it between the two and them re-opposing should lead to a mighty fine race. War Command is a Coventry Stakes winner at Royal Ascot and Dewhurst winner at Newmarket, and was fully expected to be top-class this season. He never really showed at Newmarket though in the Guineas and was extremely disappointing. Upon further inspection, there can’t be any real excuses for that run, he might have been slightly inconvenienced by where he raced but it is difficult to suggest he should have finished any closer. It could well just be that he wasn’t right that day but with his performances as a juvenile still fresh in the memory, importantly having course form at Ascot, you’d have to think that this could be the day he’ll have been trained for. He’s been supported over the weekend and is obviously well-thought of and from these connections, you’d have to appreciate that and expect much better today. He could though, be inconvenienced by the possibility of a slowly run affair with only six rivals in attendance, as the impression I have always got is that he prefers coming off a strong gallop. Toormore isn’t a horse I am a great fan of but I’m currently warming to his chance here given the circumstances it faces. The champion juvenile of last year and a Craven Stakes winner in this campaign, he was reported to have run flat in the Guineas, but he still managed to get within 4.5 lengths of the winner and obviously didn’t run that bad. Connections were honest with their appraisal after the race and you would expect a much better run in this contest. Firstly, the small-field will play to his strengths, it might not be a coincidence that his two Group successes were in small fields. Obviously, those were the races that he was pitched into, so he didn’t have a chance to run in a bigger field in a top-class race (handled a big-field in a maiden) but he seems fairly uncomplicated to ride. If there’s a pace, he drops in, if not, he is more than happy to lead. Such front-running tactics were seen to really good effect in the Craven when very prominent under Ryan Moore, and battling off The Grey Gatsby, who has continued to improve to a serious effect when upped in trip. The potential for Toormore to sit in the lead here and dictate terms is a real possibility and one that if it occurs, drastically increases his chance of winning. Toormore doesn’t have to lead though and is surely better than his Newmarket Guineas run suggests, and with Ryan Moore riding again, he looks an interesting outsider at his current odds. Outstrip was well-beaten in the Guineas and finished absolute last, but as we know, that doesn’t always write-off your chances in a race such as this. A winner at the Breeders Cup meeting at the end of last year, he was narrowly behind Toormore at Goodwood last year and was beaten by War Command in the Dewhurst. His win in the Breeders Cup could show that needs rattling fast ground to be at his best, which he’s unlikely to get here. Outstrip has always shaped as if he’ll be a better three year old but doesn’t quite look up to a race of this standard, even if he was coming into it with some average form. He’s overlooked for the time being until showing something more. Prince Of All could be a lively outsider from Ireland, as although his win in a Listed race at Dundalk over 7f does not amount to a great deal, he was only getting better towards the end of the race and stayed on strongly. The form of that race has been let down a bit by the runner-up, albeit the third home has improved dramatically since trying sprinting. Prince Of All has only had three starts and the fact that he’s tactically versatile will help in a race with a small field. He doesn’t have to front-run, looks in dire need of the mile trip once again and has a big future I feel. He hasn’t ran since that win in April (non-runner in the Irish Guineas) and the lack of a recent effort might be a small point of concern, as well as the huge step up in grade. That being said, he looks capable of playing a hand in a race such as this. Ascot as a track shouldn’t hold any Yuften lost his maiden tag on the third time of asking at Newmarket, beating two horses rated in the 70?s by seven lengths. There was a lot to like about that run and the form in his previous two runs (without winning) were good too. Jumping straight into a Group 1 though off the back of a maiden looks ambitious and I feel he’ll need more time. Verdict
- Toormore
- Night Of Thunder
- Prince Of All
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Re: Royal Ascot 2014 ~ Day 3 Thursday 19th Did a Gold Cup preview with all the current 19 entries mentioned. Exciting race even though my selection isn't the most original! The Ascot Gold Cup is the premier staying-event in the United Kingdom and Ireland, held over 2m4f and has brought out some extremely popular results in the past few years. Estimate, owned by The Queen, was a much celebrated success and that horse tries to defend her crown this year. Looking further back, Yeats' four successes in four years must be classed as one of the best training achievements in recent years and has helped to keep this race relevant, especially in a bloodstock world where stamina is often seen as unfashionable. 2014's renewal is exciting but on a glance through the runners, it does not seem to be a race that has a massive amount of strength in depth. Leading Light is the ante-post favourite and quite rightly too, as last years St.Leger winner looks the ideal type to take this race. Trained by Aidan O'Brien, who has a sensational record in this race in recent years (admittedly mainly due to Yeats) but his training performance of turning Fame And Glory into an Ascot Gold Cup winner in 2011, a horse who never really looked capable of staying 2m4f, let alone winning a Group 1 over such distance, means that you've always got a chance with one of his horses in this race. Leading Light is a former Ascot winner, winning the Queens Vase here last season when shaping like a step-up in trip wouldn't be of any concern, before handling the drop in distance to take the St.Leger. He's always looked like a potential Gold Cup horse after his win at Ascot and although an audacious attempt at the Arc de Triomphe backfired, he showed no ill effects of that on seasonal reappearance. His run at Navan was over1m6f and he was only getting stronger at the finish, beating Royal Diamond and Pale Mimosa who potentially re-oppose here. The way he settled beautifully, travelled well and stayed on strongly only provided serious encouragement that he'll be absolutely spot on for today's contest. It's always a step into the unknown with an extra four furlongs in trip, but you would think that the way in which his trained will give him every chance of excelling over it. Another reason to be keen on the chances of Leading Light is the fact the opposition look a little below top-class this year. Although not 2nd in the market, it's probably fair to start with the chances of Estimate, the winner of the race last year. She provided a brilliant story that day but things haven't seemingly gone right since. She was seventh in the Long Distance Cup at Ascot on softer ground and although that surface could have been the obvious excuse, as well as the drop in trip, but she didn't seem at her best that day and hasn't been seen since. For her to win here without a run under her belt this season, an attribute that most of her rivals have, would be an fantastic training achievement. The vibes have been good in recent days in preparation for her title defence and she seems to have recovered from a leg injury. On the face of things, her current price of 15/2 looks too big on the bare facts, but there's too many factors against her this year and simply I think she'll just come up short. Brown Panther is seen as the biggest challenger to Leading Light and he seems to be continually improving. A former Royal Ascot winner in a handicap in 2011, he obviously handles the track and his win at Sandown in the Henry II Stakes over two miles suggested that he was more than capable of playing a hand in this race. Far from disgraced in the Melbourne Cup too last November, he's a high-class animal. Though his last two wins have come on soft ground, he seems perfectly at home on most surfaces and he looks like a solid challenger. Brown Panther though, doesn't seem quite good enough to win a Gold Cup. For instance, he's never struck me as a type that will relish the extra distance that this race brings. I always feel you need a horse with the potential to "grind out" the last few furlongs, Brown Panther doesn't seem like that sort of horse, as he strikes me as a bit "speedier", an attribute that might count against him in a real stamina test. I can see him looming up powerfully towards the closing stages and then staying on into the one-pace, as he certainly doesn't seem to be one of the stronger "stayers" in the race. Tac De Boistron only made his UK debut in 2013 after doing the majority of his racing in France, although he ran poorly in the 2012 Melbourne Cup. There was an impression previous to a couple of months ago that he really needed a soft surface to be seen at his best, a fair assumption to make given that all his wins had come on soft ground or worse, including wins in the Sagaro Stakes earlier in the season, a dominant victory in the Prix Royal-Oak and at Chester since racing for Marco Botti. The assumption that better ground wouldn't suit was to an extent, dampened when running a mighty race in the Yorkshire Cup. The surface that day was fairly quick but he looked perfectly at home on it and was staying on strongly, only beaten a neck. That was over too sharp a trip also (1m6f) and it looked a perfect Gold-Cup prep run. Tac De Boistron is fully entitled to take his chance and looks to be continuing to progress, but I still wouldn't really think he's a Gold Cup winner in waiting unless the ground was more testing. It's fine to say he handles faster ground, but with not much rain likely in the run-up to the race, there's not going to be a great deal of cut in the ground. He might also not fully see out the trip (more on that later) when seen behind Altano and he sort of reminds me of Brown Panther, not looking like the sort of horse to "grind out" the success in the last two furlongs. Altano was the biggest eye-catcher in last years renewal, having been given a hopeless ride when given too much to do. He showed that form to be all wrong when beating Tac De Boistron in the Cadran back in October and that success came over the 2m4f trip he faces in this race, which is an obvious plus. The German challenger warmed up for this race with a comfortable success in a German Group 3 over two miles. He was entitled to come on for the run and although not destroying the opposition, beat the competition in the way in which he was entitled to. Altano should be fully fit for this but my biggest concern is the likely faster ground. Like many German breds, they excel on slower ground and even though we're unlikely to see rattling fast ground with the watering that will take place, he would definitely be more at home on a slower surface, as seen by his improved form in France. Alongside the fact that his jockey who gave him no chance last year will likely renew the association, he cannot really be backed with much confidence unless the ground becomes slower. If it did, I'd have him in front of Brown Panther in the market, as there's no doubts regarding the trip and the slower ground seems to improve Altano quite significantly. All the remaining runners are 16/1 plus, but some worthy consideration or at least a mention. Last years runner-up Simenon continued his good form in both Asia and Australia during the winter, with a cracking run in the Melbourne Cup likely the best of them. He has however, completely lost his form on the evidence of his runs in Meydan, when well-beaten in the Dubai Gold Cup and then well-beaten in the Sagaro Stakes behind Tac De Boistron. His trainer has been frank about the need for Simenon to improve on his recent form, but on his back-form he has every chance of running a good race. He's been given a break of 50 days and that should freshen him up, alongside the fact his form at Ascot is generally really good (won an Ascot Stakes and a Queen Alexandra). It isn't out of the realms of possibility for him to bounce back, but it's risky. Both Royal Diamond and Pale Mimosa faced Leading Light last time that ran and they were pretty closely matched, both beaten around three lengths. Royal Diamond is much the classier in terms of Group successes, with a Long Distance Cup win on Champions Day been a really good piece of form. Pale Mimosa wasn't far behind that day either (caught the eye in which the way he travelled) and they are obviously very decent staying horses. Leading Light though did put them both in their place quite significantly at Navan and it's hard to see them reversing the form at Ascot, especially when the step up in trip is likely to be in Leading Light's favour. ? Aidan O'Brien also has entered Eye Of The Storm, Ernest Hemingway and El Salvador. Eye Of The Storm fits into the same piece of Long Distance Cup form that was previously mentioned with Royal Diamond and Pale Mimosa, with that effort being able to be upgraded given the fact he was only a three year-old taking on older horses. Allegedly he met with a setback this year and given that his reappearance at Leopardstown gave the distinct impression that the run was needed, then you would think he has every chance of running a decent race. It's hard to get too enthusiastic on current evidence though, as he hasn't always finished his race off and the application of a hood isn't always the best of signs. Given his tendency to look a little out-stayed, this might not be the best race for him, but it wouldn't be a great surprise to see a bold show. Ernest Hemingway looked so exciting when starting his three year old career but simply hasn't fulfilled it, with just two Group 3 wins to his name outside of Maidens. He wasn't seen to his best in Meydan this winter and his run at the Curragh in the Irish St.Leger was extremely disappointing, especially as the way he travelled suggested he should have played a big part in the finish. It wouldn't surprise if he ran well considering connections, and he does have the sort of profile to take a hand in this race, but he simply doesn't seem to battle when asked for an effort and that's not a horse you'd want to support in a race like this. El Salvador ran OK in the 2013 renewal when 6th, but all his form subsequently suggested that he doesn't really see out this trip fully and is far from a Group 1 animal anyway. Ahzeemah, whose trainer knows how to win a Gold Cup with two successes in the last 10 years. He beat Simenon in a Lonsdale Cup last year and ran a nice race in the Irish St.Leger, albeit beaten by six lengths. He's a sort of standing dish in staying events up to two miles and up until his poor effort in the Long Distance Cup, where the ground was the likely excuse, his Ascot form was exemplary. He looked to have needed the run in the Yorkshire Cup when behind a couple of these and he'll be likely be spot-on for this race. His Lonsdale Cup victory indicated that he might stay further, especially as he really did stick on nicely when challenged that day, and has essentially been forgotten about in the market. He could well be one to keep on-side, especially as he's only five and open to further progress. The last horse I'll mention in depth is Saddler's Rock, who was sent off 9/2 in the 2013 Gold Cup and was beaten less than a length in the 2012 renewal. He's obviously respected on that but his form in recent runs have been fairly woeful and he's finished behind a fair number of these in those efforts. He's in a massive need of a revival and it could just be that he's not enjoying the game at the moment. There's few better trainers that John Oxx but given his recent form, he's difficult to support. Other potential runners include Missunited, who wasn't far behind Tac De Boistron in France last season and ran a good race at Leopardstown, when winning over 1m6f (beat Eye Of The Storm). She handles better ground but would need it to come out really soft to be seen at her best. Whiplash Willie and Oriental Fox were well-beaten by Brown Panther last time and look to have plenty to do, even on their best form. Havana Beat doesn't look like a stayer over this sort of trip, while Ralston Road and Shwaiman both ran at York, the former dead-heating with the smart looking Clever Cookie. That was just a listed race and Ralston Road hasn't been up to Group company in the past, while Shwaiman is at least sort of unexposed at this grade. His Chester Cup effort didn't suggest that he was a future Gold Cup winner, at least not this season. Verdict
- Leading Light
- Ahzeemah
- Brown Panther
A race that for me, revolves around LEADING LIGHT, who looks every inch a Gold Cup horse and his form coming into this race looks rock solid. He handles the track, comes from a yard who are fantastic with these sorts and looks to have a extremely solid chance. A current price of 7/4 is appealing, although my current view is to wait til the day of the race and see if bookmakers decide to take him on (as seen in the Derby). If they do, we could see 2/1+ and that is a fantastic price. Ahzeemah was been forgotten about in most quarters but is unexposed at this trip and is a high-class stayer on his day, and from a yard who can get the job done in this race, he's no 20/1 chance. Brown Panther is a solid alternative and could pick up the pieces if the favourite doesn't perform. Altano is best of the rest if given a more sensible ride this time around.
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Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 11th May Not much depth to this maiden and Fantasy Justifier showed enough on debut to look like a decent sprinter and unless a debutante has plenty of ability, I’ll be very surprised to see the Ronald Harris trained runner out of the first two. He was green as grass on debut at Bath but caught my eye with a strong mid-race move that displayed that he had plenty of speed and knew his job. His effort petered out at the one-pace towards the end of the race but there was enough there to suggest he has plenty of ability and with a sprint pedigree like the one he possesses (related to horses such as Tax Free), it would be very disappointing to not see him come on significantly for the outing. To be honest, I was hoping they’d pitch him in a better race than this as I think he’s got the potential to be quite good but in a race such as this, he’s definitely still worth a bet. Of his five rivals, Sartori and Urban Dreamer have run to a fair level of form, the former finishing ahead of our selection on debut but I do think that ours has more scope to improve and that isn’t factored into the price. Red Oasis was smashed up in the market before being withdrawn and with Ryan Moore booked he’s respected. Cool Bahamian has a decent pedigree too but will likely come on for the run, whilst Movie Magic is best watched from this stable in juvenile events. Fantasy Justifier should be favourite for me and when writing this originally last night, I expected prices more like 3/1, so to see prices on the board such as what they are now, he’s worthy of some decent support. Smarty Socks loves it round Ascot over the 7f trip and although his reappearance effort wasn’t great on paper, he was given a funny ride and I’m willing to give him a chance in this big handicap, a sort of race that he’s had plenty of experience in and off this sort of handicap mark, he should be more than capable of playing a big part in. He is a 9yo now which begs the question whether he is just in decline but he showed enough form last season to suggest the spark was still there, even though he only managed one victory, in a Conditions event at York. He started 2012 off a handicap rating of 102 and that had fallen to one of 94 by the end of the campaign but efforts such as this penultimate run of 2012 at Newmarket suggests that the vast majority of the ability remained and that a big handicap was still a possibility. If Smarty Socks was to win a big handicap, it almost certainly would be either over this C&D or at York. He acts particularly well here at Ascot, winning off a rating of 95 back in 2011 and he always shapes well at this track, just as long as the ground is decent. A deluge of rain would put me off significantly here and I think they’ll pull him out if it rains significantly anyway (he’s entered in a race at Doncaster on Monday). His Haydock reappearance will have to be forgiven but he was held-up well off the pace, not asked for his effort until the race was gone and was sent very wide to make his challenge. It wasn’t the greatest of rides and he’s been dropped 2lbs in the meantime. The talented David Bergin takes off 5lbs now and effectively running off a mark of 86, over his ideal C&D and in a race that plays to his strengths. I think this could be Smarty Socks last real chance to pick up a big prize, but one is capable of doing and at huge prices, he’s worthy of interest. Woody Bay reappeared this season with a promising effort in a fair 3yo handicap and is taken to score in a similar sort of race now, with that race under his belt. The James Given trained gelding is yet to win from his six starts but has showed ability on plenty of occasions, finishing second twice last season (nothing particularly wrong with his attitude in either, just running into one too good) and although he ended last season on a bit of a sour note, his 2013 debut was much more promising. He was extremely weak in the market but ran a really solid race, not given a hard time once beaten but running on into fifth, five and three quarter lengths behind the winner. Those who finished towards the front of that race look sure to be capable of much better things and it was a good effort from Woody Bay in the circumstances. The way he finished suggested that he’d come on significantly for the outing as he just stuck on at the one pace after looking a threat in the final two furlongs. With a run under his belt and fitness no longer an issue, I’m hopeful of a much more positive run. The jockey booking of Graham Lee is very positive, especially when riding for this yard (7/28 riding 3yo’s from the James Given stable since transferring to the flat) and he’s a much more dynamic jockey than that of James Sullivan who was on board Woody Bay last time out. The selection has been dropped a further 2lbs and I think this is a handicap mark he can win off, especially looking at some of his juvenile form alongside the promise of his latest start. The main issue is that he may ‘run into one’ that is more progressive, given the nature of three year old handicaps but nothing here looks massively well-in and it looks a fairly open heat. Any rain at Nottingham (it is forecast) won’t harm Woody Bay at all as he form on softer surfaces and I’m willing to take a chance at these prices, as it seems to me that he’s been forgotten about in the betting due to their been stables represented such as Hannon, Johnston, Knight and Varian who are much bigger names and have horses that have ‘potential’ to improve on their handicap marks. However, I don’t think this is particularly the case in this instance. Plenty have gone to the poorhouse backing Mon Brav in recent seasons as he always seems to shape like that he should be winning decent sprint handicaps but for one reason or another, just doesn’t. However, Thirsk is arguably his favourite track, he nearly always goes well fresh and has fallen to such a tempting mark and down in grade that he’s well worth taking a chance on, especially given his price is much bigger than I was expecting. A frustrating sort for Brian Ellison, he was operating off handicap marks in the 80s in the early part of 2012 and held his form quite well during the early part of the campaign, which obviously bodes well for us considering we’re taking a chance on him first time out. He really enjoys Thirsk, having a record here of 11347. The seventh placed finish being over 7f (not his trip, hampered early on anyway) and this sprinting distance around this track is sure to suit. I’ve been a bit perplexed with connections trying to make him a 7f horse as I think it is obvious that he’s a sprinter who just needs a good pace to chase. I presume the fact that he often stays on well over 6f gives them the impression that he needs further but I don’t agree. Today, he drops to the 0-75 grade and although this is a competitive handicap, he’s got a high draw which is traditionally the best place to be at Thirsk. My theory is that the pace around him will come from Spykes Bay, who will be lit up with the first time headgear and that should give him a good tow into the race. Mon Brav nearly always goes well fresh, recording RPR’s on seasonal reappearance of 85, 65 and 79 in the past three seasons. Brian Ellison continues to have his string in decent knick and I expected Mon Brav to be plenty shorter, so even taking into account his tendency to get going too late, his form round this venue makes him too difficult to go unbacked. Backing Ellaal might seem tedious considering he has shown virtually zero since joining Ruth Carr and the presence of his stable-mate in Cono Zur might compromise his chance somewhat, but, I’ve long thought this horse was capable of winning a handicap at some stage at this trip and given that I think the potential for rain to fall could work in his favour, alongside the fact that the step up in distance from 7f will suit on all known evidence, he’s worthy of support today and to definitely keep an eye on in the future. He’s an ex Shadwell horse who won in game fashion over 7f back in 2011, shaping like he had a serious future in handicaps. Things didn’t pan out that way last season, barely beating a rival on three starts. However, he did run a couple of races which suggested ability remained, such as when 8th of 13 at Nottingham last October. He faded late on (will have needed the run) and I thought that he could go on to run well in some all-weather contests over the winter. However, he was sold to Ruth Carr for £11,000 and on the face of things, that looks like money down the drain. I’m not one to give up on a horse too easily and I don’t think that he has been seen to best effect this season. He was entitled to come on for the outing on his first start when given a positive ride, especially as all of Ruth Carr’s have needed their first run in 2013. His last racecourse appearance at Redcar was less easy to excuse, but I don’t think patient tactics suit him and he seems one whose mind you need to make up for him. 7f on quick turf is plenty sharp enough as well when held-up, so I’d think there was potential for there to be something more to come from him. He should be fully wound-up for a start, the step back in trip will suit and the forecast rain I think will also help his cause too, as he doesn’t seem too happy on fast ground and his action suggests a bit of cut will help. Given he was beaten so far last time it does seem ridiculous to suggest he can win, but, given a more positive ride (tracking the leaders) over a more suitable trip and down dramatically in grade, I think he’s got a much bigger chance than his outsider odds suggest. He’ll win a race this season I’m sure and I think there’s enough to suggest that it’s worth chancing that it might be today. Saturday Selections 13:45 Lingfield – Fantasy Justifier; 3pts @ 7/1 William Hill 15:50 Ascot - Smarty Socks; 1pt @ 33/1 Bet365 17:05 Nottingham – Woody Bay; 1pt @ 10/1 Bet365, Coral, William Hill 18:15 Thirsk – Mon Brav; 1pt @ 15/2 BetVictor 19:45 Thirsk – Ellaal; 1pt @ 33/1 Bet365, William Hill Take Best odds Guaranteed
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I wasn't going to have a bet today as the racing is very poor but one caught my eye at Yarmouth in the 3yo Handicap. Laudation showed ability in sprint maidens and also when upped to 7f but hasn't madethe transition to handicaps successfully. However, I'm expecting better now switched to a straight track and back down in trip, heought to go well under an extremely talented young rider. Laudation has a decent sprint pedigree, related to many winners at the trip and that pedigree would suggest he would continue to improve with racing.He was sent off favourite on handicap debut 53 days ago, when running over 7f and he never really went a yard that day, but his prominencein the market suggested that connections believed that his mark is a workable one. Not seen since, it may mean that a problem has beenfound and it is to be hoped that the break will have freshened him up. Although today's handicap is a fair one, Laudation will be suited by the straight track more so than Lingfield, especially as he cantake a while to get going, and I don't think the bend at the all-weather venue where he has previously done all his racing suitsideally. Although there's a few here from fashionable yards, William Jarvis has a good record with his 3yo's in recent seasons, running at17% , accounting for 6/8 of his course successes in the past five seasons. Robert Tart takes off 5lbs and although his skills are wellpublicised by now, there's still plenty of milage in following him.Off effectively a rating of 63, Laudation should go really well especially as he had hinted in a couple of his maidens that he couldgo on to be a horse rated much higher. Tuesday's Selection 16:20 Yarmouth– Laudation; 1pt @ 12/1 Coral, Stan James Take Best Odds Guaranteed
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Re: Flat Racing > Monday 6th May Bank Holiday Racing is very often quite poor and today is no real exception. A six runner event hardly looks ideal for a horse who can be very keen in the early parts of the race but there should be a good pace on, with two or three here who can make the running and Petaluma shaped with real promise in a much better race on seasonal reappearance at Newbury and she returns to the scene of her only win to date. Her record is hardly inspiring (1/13) but she never hardly runs a bad race and she’ll come on significantly for her seasonal reappearance, as she travelled really well on the outside and then wasn’t given a tough time towards the end of the race, the likely reason being that she wasn’t quite 100% fit yet. That run will have brought her on significantly and if she can replicate her victory at this venue last October, she’ll be quite difficult to beat. That was off a 4lb lower mark but she should continue to improve now that connections have found the key to her (staying trips). With potential pace angles such as Callisto Moon, L Frank Baum and Red Orator likely wanting to get on with it, it should mean she has a good pace to chase that will help her settle. Her current price seems a bit prohibitive but there have been a couple of non-runners this morning and I still think there’s some mileage in her price, as I’d have her at 11/4 in this depleted field. I’ve a couple of doubts about the ground regarding Aerodynamic but he’s well-handicapped now and he’s surely going to be well-backed and win within the next couple of starts, so although today might not be ‘the day’, he’s worth backing especially at these sorts of prices. A winner off 1lb higher last August at Nottingham (over a mile, good ground), he hasn’t shown the same form since off his revised marks but was evidently thought good enough to take a race on his seasonal reappearance, as he was very strong in the market. However, he never went a yard throughout and was well-beaten. His subsequent outings don’t look particularly appealing on the face of things but he was given a huge amount to do on both starts and although the selection likes to be held-up off the pace, he stood no chance of making the ground up. Although I have doubts about quick ground, especially as most of his best form has come on softer surfaces, his action has always suggested that it shouldn’t be a problem and the majority of the tasks he’s been set in recent years when encountering quicker ground have been extremely tough anyway. It may be a case of having to wait until he drops into a 0-70 but the race today should be run to suit with a few who like to be up with the pace, the stiff 7f will be fine and it’s not a particularly strong handicap for the grade as well. Only minimum stake stuff, but one to keep in mind for the future if today doesn’t quite go to plan. Monday Selections 15:10 Bath – Petaluma; 1pt @ 4/1 Bet365, Stan James, William Hill 17:30 Beverley – Aerodynamic; 1pt @ 20/1 Stan James, William Hill Take Best Odds Guaranteed
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Re: Flat Racing - Sunday 5th May Again, some good racing from Newmarket but I think betting opportunities are limited from that meeting, with my initial fancy in Fennell Bay being tipped by Pricewise. I’ve found one selection that I feel to be incorrectly priced, and although quite short, I believe it should be a strong favourite. That horse is Sun Central, who bombed out on his last start in 2012 but had previously looked like a very progressive animal. That aforementioned run had plenty of excuses and came in a strong heat, and he’s almost certain to improve for the step up to 1m6f, so he looks a good bet today with the strong support for Mysterious Man ensuring a decent price is available on our charge. The William Haggas trained 4yo is lightly-raced with only six starts to date, winning two of them. On his penultimate outing, he ran a good field in a Shergar Cup race over 1m4f at Ascot ragged, winning by one length and looking like an obvious candidate to improve further when stepped up in trip. He didn’t show anything on his last start in 2012, but was drawn wide and had to use up a lot of energy to get into a fair racing position, so I think you can excuse it. Sun Central hasn’t yet run at 1m6f but looks suited to the trip, having the physical attributes of a constant galloper and he has plenty of stamina in his pedigree too. He’s beautifully bred and is surely better than a 92 rated horse, especially based on his first Ascot performance and other starts on his 2012 campaign. Fitness has to be taken on trust and due to his size, it’s plausible it may take him time to get fit. That being said, the William Haggas stable are in very good form of late, having had seventeen runners in the past two weeks, with seven winning and a further six finishing in the places. He obviously has his yard going great guns and I just think a price of 11/2 or 5/1 is far too big for a progressive animal such as this one. I had him at around 7/2 in this field and the main reason this price still exists is that Mysterious Man has been so well-backed. That one is respected but I’m not sure he’ll enjoy the fast ground and Sun Central just looks to have the potential to be rated over three figures this season, so I’m happy to take my chances at his current odds. Sunday Selections 14:20 Salisbury – Sun Central; 1pt @ 11/2 Stan James Take Best Odds Guaranteed
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Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 4th May A competitive handicap for the track in the Thirsk Hunt Cup and a big prize on offer, which should ensure that most of these will be fully fit and ready to put up a big effort. Norse Blues has often promised to become a lot better than he actually has shown in reality but is in good hands now with David Barron and didn’t stand much of a chance on his latest start in the Spring Cup at Newbury considering how that race panned out for him. Back in an easier race, with Graham Gibbons on board, he looks set for a big effort. The selection won off a mark of 85 last season when under the care of Sylvester Kirk over the mile trip and showed up well in good/fast ground handicaps off higher marks throughout the majority of his 2012 campaign. On the face of things there, it looked like the handicapper might have caught up with him, but his effort in the Silver Cambridgeshire at Newmarket was extremely promising and I think that indicated there was definitely more to come from him at some point. Having transferred to David Barron, who is obviously capable of improving one, he’s now of interest in this sort of race. As mentioned earlier, his Newbury reappearance (when strong in the market) was promising enough, just being too keen in the early stages on ground that might have been too soft for him anyway. He was rightfully given an easy time of it when the race was gone and that should have put him spot on today. Norse Blues loves these types of big field handicaps on decent ground and although he isn’t one for maximum confidence today, especially considering the likes of Two for Two could well be a Group Horse in waiting, the selection has always shaped as if he could run to a mid-90 handicap mark level of form, and he’s a little bit of value at his current odds I don’t usually playing in 2yo Maidens unless I’m on the track, as I find it difficult to get enthused and there’s obviously a lot of guesswork that has to go into things. However, although the Richard Hannon favourite is obviously respected with his string going so well, I thought the debut run of Bandolier was full of promise and he’s value today if Thunder Strike isn’t quite as good as the market suggests he could be. The selection was easy to back on debut at Nottingham, with the penny only dropping when the race was already gone but he stayed on particularly nicely and looked a sure-thing to improve hugely from that outing. This race is of a similar level to that one and although you have to give Richard Hannon’s runner a huge amount of respect, prices around 3/1 or 7/2 mark for Richard Fahey’s runner are just too big. Other big yards such as Brian Ellison (not known for debut winners) and Tom Dascombe (runner showed nil on debut) arealso respected but I’d rather take a chance on one that looks to have a fair amount of ability and has already shown it on the track. There’s also a fair sprint race at Doncaster, where these big-field sprint handicaps are a tough puzzle to solve at the best of times. The Michael Dods trained Escape to Glory was very weak in the market on his seasonal reappearance which suggested that the run was needed (even though the yard were in good form) and that’s exactly how he shaped, and he was not given a tough time of things throughout. With that run under his belt, back racing on a straight track (his Pontefract run was the first time he’s been round a bend) and this sort of race being more his preference, he should be capable of outrunning these massive odds. Escape to Glory was sold to current connections for a huge looking 72,000gns and they went to some lengths to get him. He was a winner off a rating of 85 at Haydock on quick ground over 6f towards the back-end of the campaign and showed mostly good form in big-field sprint handicaps during 2012. Although a winner over 7f, he always looked like a sprinter who needs a big field to show his best and it was surprising that he was so weak in the market last time out, given the hefty price-tag and his trainer being in such good form through the first few weeks of the season. The selection was held-up throughout and never landed a blow and looked (to me at least) that there were other targets further down the line. He drops in grade today (0-90) and although there’s a slight suspicion that he we may have to wait until he drops in grade even further to see the best of him, especially as all his best form last season came in 0-85s. A fair few efforts of his 2012 form suggested he always looked capable of defying this sort of higher handicap rating at some point. The market drift this morning is also a worry – but the fact is that at this big price, I feel happy in taking a chance on him and following him on his next few outings. The distinct lack of pace across the field will inconvenience many much more than Escape to Glory and granted some luck, he’ll go well. Saturday Selections 16:35 Thirsk – Norse Blues; 1pt @ 8/1 BetVictor 17:40 Thirsk - Bandolier; 1pt @ 10/3 Stan James 18:45 Doncaster – Escape to Glory; 1pt @ 25/1 William Hill (All prices Best Odds Guaranteed)
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread I'm looking forward to this horse that is "not off" that you're putting up Rio2014. I'm calling it that you're going to wait 5 minutes before the off, put up a big drifter and then claim it was being "prepped". Erhaab - Your posts are so ridiculously spread out that it's difficult to make any sense of what you're arguing, but I'll do my best to keep up.
I never actually said anything of the sort, learn to read. My post said the following "Horse's/owners/trainers best interest to ride a horse out to the finish when the horse has nothing more to give and has no chance of making a place at best." - Nothing more to give would be up to the jockey to decide, but what would really be the point of giving a horse a tough race when it's out with the washing at the back? Your retort to this would be "well the jockey can just say that, they can ease it up then land a gamble duhh". If a jockey has been unduly easy on a horse, people will notice, stewards *should* notice and the proper enquiries should be made, but if a jockey has put in substantial effort for no return with a certain horse, then they don't deserve to get into any trouble when they miss out on 8th and finish 9th.Shouldn't all horses be ridden to get the best possible position , are you suggesting its OK to not try for an EW position when its beaten ? How do you determine whether a horse has nothing more to give ?Your comments are not punter friendly.
Finally, something I agree with you on. Stewards recently have been incapable of spotting non-triers and can easily be accused of double standards. The BHA are no better either. Al-Zarooni (I believe) committed a similar offence to Nicky Henderson this summer regarding illegal substances found within a horse and just got a fine, whilst Henderson received a ban. Smaller trainers would have been thrown out of racing, so it just proves that money talks. It's sad but flat racing is largely financed by someone with questionable stances on Women, Homosexuality, Equality of Labour etc... Whilst in the NH Sphere, there's a certain jockey who is always giving horses an easy time of it but is above suspicion. Money talks. Gambles are planned years in advance but now that horse's card has been marked by everyone and anyone, it's going to be difficult for them to land a big punt with it for some time to come, as it will always arouse suspicion.More trainers should be done for non trying and the penalties should be more severe. A gamble could be planned a few years in advance so a 40 day ban is not going to be an inconvience also the money they could potentially win will pay for the fines sveral times over.
Asking a Trainer to get a horse 100% ready for every race is daft and just impossible anyway. Trainers have to leave a bit to work with as they'll just get to the bottom of a horse pretty quickly and he might never be as useful again. As long as a horse isn't ridiculously unfit, the jockey tries to win the race, no one can actually have any real issue with a horse needing the run. If you're backing horses who have been off for a while such as Teaforthree, then you should assume that they will need it unless you can provide evidence to the contrary (whether on form or through inside sources). Complaining about a horse needing the run who has been off for months and her trainer not telling the world about is naive.The horses may be physically trying to win whether it can or not but its the connections who actually control whether its trying to win or not which is the point -
Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Some hilarious posts on this page of the thread. Not least RIO2014 using an example from Irish Racing, not least a bumper...to generalise racing across the entire UK! Erhaab - no one has ever said Richard Hughes has never ridden a bad race but we've been through this time and again, it is not in the horse's/owners/trainers best interest to ride a horse out to the finish when the horse has nothing more to give and has no chance of making a place at best, it makes no sense to do so whatsoever. Regarding Furrows, it was blatant schooling in public but no doubt they'll appeal and it will get overturned, the trainers nearly always win, as seen in the case of 'Traditional Bob' at Chepstow not so long ago. It's a little unfortunate that they get picked up on it though, when it goes on by certain big connections on a weekly basis and doesn't get picked up by the stewards. One instance was a horse running at Lingfield the other week which was barely put into the race and the stewards did nothing, whilst another in a later race that was given a similar sort of effort (a far worse result mind) was brought up by those at the course and refused to be given a handicap mark. As for your point NeilM, running a horse when it's unfit and has little chance of winning, but actually physically trying to win the race is a far lesser crime (if a crime at all) than blatantly not trying to win the race at all, regardless of the fitness of said animal.
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Re: The Devil...Betting and The Best Tip.
To be fair though, it is a conversation that has been done to death on plenty of occasions on every racing forum going, including this one. My best tip - make sure you enjoy the form study element. Whether it's studying a certain type of race, watching a replay or going racing and watching horses in the paddock, make sure you enjoy it. If you don't, take a break or just don't bother and find a different hobby. I can't imagine a life where you're craving to get your next winner is a very healthy one. You only get one go, after all.Shame we didn't get more thoughts on this. I think it's a really interesting topic and a very important one -
Re: AW Wed 28th Nov 15:10 Lingfield APACHE GLORY might just have gone at the game but her performance two starts ago caught the eye, not given a tough time of things and was really placed poorly throughout, so she stood little chance of winning. Although her effort four days later was dire, that run may have come too soon (had previously needed some time between her races) and now after a month off, over a C&D she acts at, she can go well at huge odds. Had some handy form for Richard Hannon, winning off a mark of 78 in July 2011. She's just dropped significantly in the weights since then, and the yard she joined are hardly famed for their winners (none in 2012). That being said, there was definite promise two starts ago off a mark of 70 and now dropped into a 0-65, off a rating of 65, and from a handy draw, she'll surely be capable of going well if placed more prominently 15:10 Lingfield - Apache Glory; 2pts @ 33/1 William Hill (bog)
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Re: Ladbrokes BOG Rule Wouldn't say it will be phased out just yet, with Corals and Stan James recently reintroducing Best Odds Guaranteed after periods without it. I would say though, that it's days are nigh anyway as I just can't imagine it to be a profitable venture at all, but who knows. Ladbrokes aren't punter-friendly at the moment anyway by what a lot of people (some of them long-term customers) are saying.
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Re: Hennessy Gold Cup Rumour has it that Long Run might well be having a run in this... Take that how you will...
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Re: Catterick Saturday
If Verinco turns up and the ground is soft, definitely worth a second look in the betting.Hi all, 1st time at Catterick this Saturday. Wondering if people have any betting advice/ things to look out for? Is there anywhere i can get statistics - favourite percentages, jockey/trainer stats etc. Thanks in advance Tom -
Re: Jump Racing ~ Sunday 14th October
Nice first post, welcome to the forum :okVery keen on one: 4.35 Chesil Beach Boy- I am very confident of Mark Coombe's progressive hurdler going in here off a mark of 129. He was last seen when running a fine race in the Imperial Cup when missing the start but staying on strongly to finish a never nearer under his unexperienced rider. To be fair, she did complete a hatrick on this horse last year ;when winning 3 times at Wincanton (all on soft ground) and he shaped like he has alot more to offer, and his mark has somehow been unchanged since that run in March. He does come here on the back off a 218 day break which is the only concern but with ground to suit and him running off a very lenient mark, he could be a handicap snip here and he is a confident selection for me in this. From what I can see, if this was Nicholls/Walsh or Geraghty/Henderson, it would be 7/4 fav so 7/1 is a great price!! Should he not be quite fit for tomorrow, I think he should still be put in your tracker for future races this season. -
Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday 12th October 21:15 Wolverhampton CITY OF THE KINGS takes a big drop in handicap grade today and although his recent form would suggest that he's lost the plot completely, he hasn't been seen to best effect on recent starts and is definitely capable of better at some stage soon. So, dropped into a 0-70 for the first time, back on the all-weather (a surface he handles) and also with the assistance of a fair 7lb claimer, he's overpriced at 50/1. He's showed little on recent outings but hasn't really been running at his best trip, that being over 1m2f. Most of his below par outings have been over 7f/a mile and he's dropped in the ratings quite significantly this season. He has though, generally been kept to competitive races and although this is a tough little handicap, it's a big difference than his previous races that he's contested. Even the claimers that he's ran in have been fair contests and although beaten miles last time, he was barely put into the race, saw plenty of daylight and just never picked up. He handled the polytrack earlier in his career, so it looks interesting that he's returned to it now eligible for this grade. Jacob Butterfield is fairly useful in the saddle and worth the 7lb claim and although admittedly a huge price and a bit of a punt, there's no way he deserves to be 50/1. 21:15 Wolverhampton - City Of The Kings; 2pts @ 50/1 Bet365, William Hill (bog)
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Re: Daily Racing Chat Thread Camelot will go off a ridiculous price, whether or not it wins, you really do have to be mad to be taking 11/4ish on a horse with essentially poor form, considering this 'Classic Generation' have proved to be a pretty poor bunch in the UK and Ireland.
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Re: Flat Racing Saturday 29th of September An unsurprising selection in START RIGHT (15:40) for the Cambridgeshire for those who have followed my reasoning in the past few months. Below is an extract from what I said pre and post-race last time out. “I’ve still the belief that Start Right can pick up one of these races at this trip and given he has past form at Sandown, when runner-up at a mile off a mark of 99 in July 2011, this course shouldn’t hold any fears. A competitive heat in which many have chances but I’m sticking with my opinion that this sort of handicap is for the taking, especially given today he’s more kindly drawn. If they go a good clip, which is probable, then he has big claims and is value at this double-figure price. Start Right never got a run at all and wasn’t given a particularly clever ride (again). The gaps didn’t appear and the race wasn’t really run to suit, so he didn’t stand much of a chance from a winning point of view. I’m starting to lose patience with him given he needs plenty to go right for him, but I may renew acquaintances if guaranteed a strongly run over 1m1f or so. The Cambridgeshire would be where I’d take him but Godolphin have so many potential candidates for that race that it’s not likely we’ll see him there, but he is entered so we will see”. Without wanting to follow the horse, “off a cliff” as the saying goes; todays conditions will be absolutely ideal. Although the ground could just be a little bit quicker, the fact is that this 1m1f trip really should be perfect, especially given that it’ll be in a race that is run at a decent clip. I was always a bit conscious of the final furlong when running over 10f so today’s distance alleviates that issue and although it’s obviously possible that he’ll hit traffic-problems given his running style and his tendency to find trouble, he can’t be much unluckier than he was last time out and I’m still of the persuasion that one of these big handicaps can go his way. The 1lb drop in the ratings is no bad thing either and at the prices, I’m willing to give him another go, given that I’d earmarked this race for him about four weeks ago and his connections obviously have plenty of options with who to run, and Start Right is only one of two Godolphin runners. If he puts it altogether then he’ll win and given this is definitely a possibility, with a race run to suit, over a trip he should enjoy and on suitable ground, he’s worthy of support at prices of 20/1+. -- JOHNNY CASTLE (16:50) sprung back to life last time out at Doncaster and although four lengths off Cape Classic that day, he’s 8lbs better off this time around and shaped as if he’d get better as the season went on. Given he looked like he could win a really nice handicap when trained by John Gosden last season, and looks to be approaching that sort of form with current connections he looks an interesting contender. He took his time to find his feet for this yard, but showed sparks of life on his penultimate start at Goodwood before catching the eye last time out. It wasn’t a typical eye-catcher that I look for in a sense of a horse whom has been ridden incorrectly/not trying but Johnny Castle looked to be coming back to something like his best and wouldn’t have really appreciated having to do most of the donkey work in the closing stages on his own, away from other runners. The way he finished too suggested that this more demanding finish would be beneficial and although he’s 8lbs higher than his last winning mark, his last effort for John Gosden (off this handicap rating) seriously suggested that he could definitely be a top-class handicapper on his day, as that race worked out particularly well. He’ll have to improve again if he’s to overturn the form with Cape Classic alongside beating some hardened handicappers but I’m more than willing to give this one a chance today. He’s looked better than a rating of 92 on a couple of occasions now, will probably need to win this to get into the Challenge Cup at Ascot (a comment that could be applied to a few of these) and William Buick retaining the association once again is an obvious positive. Newmarket should be slightly more suitable than Doncaster in relation to the testing finish and even though Amanda Perrett has been struggling for winners as of late, her horses seem to have been running well generally. The selection is still fairly unexposed and doesn’t deserve to be a double figure price. -- NEUTRAFA (17:35) has some form on better ground but she’s very obviously a mud lover and hasn’t had her conditions for a while, alongside running in some fairly decent contests. There’s only one horse rated above 92 in this field and given she returns to a more modest level, with conditions to suit and she’s still on a handicap rating that is exploitable, she’s hugely overpriced. After winning on heavy ground at Ayr at the end of last season, she scored in hugely impressive fashion off a mark of 81 on softer ground at Nottingham over this mile trip. She’d been in my notebook for ages and knew she was a winner in waiting off that mark, but I generally didn’t think the ground would be soft enough. I couldn’t be proven more wrong and it at least showed she’s fully effective with some cut, alongside fully blown soft ground conditions. For such an easy win she went up 12lbs and ran respectably in Listed Company on testing ground, just not looking quite up to that level at that stage of her career. Her three subsequent starts have been on better ground and she never looks on happy on quick turf, especially running in listed handicaps and Group 3 contests. To her credit, her penultimate start at this track, again in a listed grade, was good enough to suggest she can be winning races off a mark in the 90’s switched to more suitable conditions. She travelled well for the most part and only really faded in the closing stages, understandable considering she’d had almost three months off and was performing on quicker than ideal ground. After a poor effort in a Group 3 last time, she’s been dropped 2lbs in the weights and I think she is more than capable of scoring off a rating of 91, especially helped today considering they’re claiming 5lbs off her, from a fairly useful jockey. Effectively a mark of 86 really should be workable considering she dotted up off an 8lb lower rating (factoring in jockey claims) and looked value for much more when she was getting her conditions. There’s plenty of other soft ground horses in this field but Neutrafa really seems to be priced on the basis of her last start, finally gets a race more suitable and although from a small yard which more than likely has been (incorrectly) factored into her price, I think she can run to a three figure mark on this ground and should be priced closer to 5/1, thus making her the bet. Bets 15:40 Newmarket – Start Right; 2pts @ 25/1 Bet365, William Hill 16:50 Newmarket – Johnny Castle; 2pts @ 12/1 Bet365, William Hill 17:35 Haydock – Neutrafa; 2pts @ 10/1 Paddy Power Take Best Odds Guaranteed where available
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Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday Sept 28th Well done with Penitent, Ben :ok
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Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday Sept 28th Three year olds have won the past two renewals of this race and hopefully SWITZERLAND (16:35) can continue this trend and with blinkers reapplied, which look to be needed on the evidence of his most recent outings, he looks to have a big handicap within him on turf at some point and I can foresee a big run with a useful apprentice continuing the association. He’s had a hectic campaign, starting his season off in January and running 16 times this year. He looks to thrive on racing though and although his efforts since winning a fair race at Kempton off a 4lb lower mark have been below-par, there have been plenty of excuses. At York for example, he suffered a huge amount of interference and was rightly allowed to be brought home in his own time, whilst I’m not convinced he was given the greatest of rides in the London Mile, given plenty to do and like many Mark Johnston horses, Switzerland really does need to be kept in touch to be kept interested. The ground was too quick for him on his last start by the way he shaped (never looked particularly happy) and today’s slightly slower conditions should benefit him in that regard. Although his only start with blinkers applied was a poor one, I’m willing to give him another chance with them today. He looks the sort who finds plenty when asked for an effort (as seen by his Kempton success) but occasionally needs encouragement to hold his position mid-race. Blinkers should help in that regard and I think this big-field handicaps could be ideal, especially as they’ll likely go a good pace and the headgear will help him to ‘travel’ into the race. Some would say that he’s at his best on polytrack considering he’s 3/5 on that surface but his effort at Glorious Goodwood seems to suggest he’s equally effective on turf and he just hasn’t had things pan out right on his most recent turf starts. Michael Murphy retaining the association is only a good thing as his skills are well documented and I’m hopeful that Switzerland can run to a three figure rating at some point, especially as some of his previous form at Goodwood and Kempton suggests this is far from impossible. The 1m1f trip should suit (stays a little further), blinkers will likely keep him interested, he has a good claimer on board and I think the likely pace will come from middle to high, so he’s drawn nicely in stall 29. These odds are far too big for horse who still has potential for improvement and from an in-form yard, he’s worthy of support in an obviously competitive handicap. Bets 16:35 Newmarket – Switzerland; 2pts @ 28/1 Bet365, BetVictor Take Best Odds Guaranteed where available
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Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday Sept 28th
Thanks for posting up Pricewise over the last couple of days Aidy, it's appreciated :ok :p*Winsili - Newmarket 2:55* Certify deserves to be favourite, but is short enough to give us some value on other runners, is far too short for a competitive Group 1. The Gosden stable is absolutely flying with a few winners today, and i will back this horse to continue the trend. It was 2nd to Lovely Pass in a Class 2 last time out, but before that looked very smart when bolting up on debut on the July course. This is the first time Buick gets on the horse, so that has to be a huge positive. Has to step up on it's last run, but with the form Gosden is in, we should see it run very well. *1 Point WIN @ 13/2 VC BOG* -
Re: Flat Racing Wednesday 26th of September There has to be some doubts about the ground for DANDY (15:10) who although lightly-raced, showed his best form on a quick surface last season. He won’t get that today but I’m sure that this horse is better than his current mark of 77 and with his pedigree reducing the amount of doubt on his effectiveness on a testing surface, he looks a decent price. Four starts to date, coming on plenty for his debut when winning well in a competitive Newmarket maiden over a mile last September. Some in behind have come out with some pretty smart handicap form and although the selection hasn’t showed that on his subsequent two starts, I’d expect better at some stage extremely soon. He’d had injury problems in the early part of the year according to his trainer and only made his return in July, beaten 7.5 lengths. He did shape though like he’d come on significantly for the outing, not given a hard time and was set plenty to do. That effort did come on softer turf but I think he handled the ground fine and it was just the tactics employed and a lack of match practice that stopped him getting much closer. His last time out effort should be just written off completely I think, especially as he beaten 4f out with the visor applied and that’s quickly discarded, with a subsequent 63 day break implying that some issue came to light which has kept him off the track. With these two defeats, his handicap mark has fallen from 85 (a completely fair one given how the Newmarket victory worked out) to one of 77 and I think there’s plenty of scope in that sort of rating. He was quite highly thought of by Andrew Balding in the early part of the year, didn’t shape badly at all on his penultimate start and comes from an in-form stable, with the yard going great guns in the past few days. Although the likely soft ground is cause for concern, Dandy is German-bred and they generally ‘go’ on softer conditions, with his dam being group-placed on testing ground, so pedigree wise things look up in that regard. He’s a lightly-raced horse who comes from a yard in form and with the visor discarded, a sure-fire positive alongside a much more likely pro-active ride than given on his seasonal reappearance, Dandy makes plenty of appeal at this sort of price. INTHAR (18:20) is the Godolphin second-string in the market but he hasn’t had much go his way since winning a maiden at Lingfield earlier in the year and granted a strongly-run race, a likely event given a couple of pace-angles, he’s more than capable of finally showing the promise that connections have obviously seen in him when often strongly supporting him in the market. The Lingfield maiden earlier this season which he picked up over this 1m2f trip was a decent one for the track and he benefitted greatly from the strongly-run nature of that race, coming late down the outside to pick off the eventual runner-up. Subsequent handicap performances haven’t particularly set the world alight, shaping like 10f/11f was inadequate on a couple of occasions before looking one-paced over 12f. He drops back to the 1m2f distance today but I think he’s a horse who has been crying out for a fairly-run race over this trip, as he’s often been plying his trade in slowly run, small-field contests. This was emphasised last time, travelling well for a long period before looking one-paced under pressure. Inthar is a horse with obvious ability but needs them to go quick up front as he’s a galloping type, not suited by a sprint to the line in middle-distance races. With the likes of Henry Clay and Magma involved, a decent gallop is more likely and this will definitely suit Inthar, as we should finally get to see how good he actually is with things more likely to pan out right. He’s been blessed with a decent draw again, is now a further 2lb lower than when running here last time and the yard are still in fair form. It’s a competitive little race but in no uncertain terms does Inthar deserve to be a double figure price given we’re yet to see the best of him in my view and he’s worth the usual stake. Bets 15:10 Goodwood – Dandy; 2pts @ 9/1 Paddy Power, William Hill 18:20 Kempton – Inthar; 2pts @ 10/1 Betfred Take Best Odds Guaranteed where available
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Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 22nd September CROWN CHOICE (17:05) does have to improve on a bare reading of his 2012 form but ran well enough over the minimum trip last time out and although he has a 53 day absence to contend with, the selection has form when fresh and has fallen to a good mark, so with conditions right for the first time in quite a while he’s likely to run very well. A useful sort for Walter Swinburn, winning over 6f-7f, he really needs fast ground to be seen at his best and although he has encountered that on a couple of occasions this season, he hasn’t had much luck with the draw on one of these starts and in the other, he wasn’t given too hard a time of things in the closing stages for my liking. Last seen at Glorious Goodwood in July, he stayed on well over the minimum trip, a distance which was just too sharp and he was also inconvenienced by the draw, where the stands side group never got involved. That was the first time in a while that Crown Choice had finished off a race without weakening and indicated to me that he shouldn’t be too long in challenging for victory once returning to a more suitable distance. He gets exactly that today and a strongly run 6f on fast ground is his bag, so they’ll be no excuses on that front with Idler and Perfect Blossom drawn nearby. Jimmy Quinn is 0/13 in recent seasons for this yard but it isn’t as big a worry as it might have been, as connections had Tom Queally booked until yesterday before he decided to ride something else and Mikael Barzalona was also attempted to be booked for the ride, who wouldn’t be the obvious jockey of choice if you just wanted a spin for some fitness. Hopefully they aren’t using this run for a spin at Goodwood next week (a course he has plenty of form at) but Crown Choice has form when fresh earlier in his career and at this sort of price, is well worth a play. -- CHINA EXCELS (17:25) was well-beaten over 6f last time out here at Catterick but returns to faster ground which is sure to suit and I’m fairly confident that they’re setting this horse up for a punt, especially as he’s been campaigned quite conservatively to get a mark and has been well-backed on one occasion. His effort last time out further emphasised that belief that this horse will be gambled on at some stage and he’s worthy of support dropping in grade and back at 7f, a distance that should definitely suit. Trained by Sue Smith, more known for her National Hunt exploits, the selection didn’t show much in Bumpers but ran fairly well in a seller at this venue in July and a maiden when running to get a handicap rating. The way he was ridden in those races indicated a horse who was a low-grade handicap project, often given plenty to do and the whip being used sparingly, if at all. China Excels went handicapping off a 6lb higher mark than he currently races off and although well-beaten on his two starts in handicaps, the first is excusable as more positive tactics were used and after being too keen, he just didn’t get home. Last time out on soft ground, his rider accepted defeat quite early on and you really needed to be up with the speed in that contest to challenge, so his task would have been pretty difficult anyway. Today he drops into a 0-65 for the first time, having had his previous two starts in a 0-85 and 0-75 and it isn’t uncommon for horses to improve bundles for such a drop in grade. Faster ground won’t be an issue and on his aforementioned effort over 6f in a seller back in July, this 7f is sure to suit. It’s a little bit chancy this bet but I’m convinced that China Excels will go off well-backed at some point and go very close, and now dropping in grade, going up in trip and encountering better ground, is worth investment at a huge price. Bets 17:05 Newmarket – Crown Choice; 2pts @ 22/1 Bet365 17:25 Catterick – China Excels; 2pts @ 28/1 William Hill Take Best Odds Guaranteed where available.
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Re: PuntersLounge Fantasy Football - £20 Entry - Pot Currently £920! I'm in :ok Just remembered about wanting to enter this.