[2017/18 1st Round Qualifying > Jul 4th]

The first legs last week showed that the games at this round of the competition can be very hard to call. TNS losing at home to Europa was obviously the shock result, but when you consider the Kosovan champions losing to their Faroese counterparts and Linfield scraping past La Fiorita, it becomes clear that these teams enter at this stage for a reason.

 

Having said that, the biggest value of the round for me again would be Linfield to beat La Fiorita at 4/9. The odds on a Sammarinese side to lose their 'home' leg (home matches for Sammarinese clubs in Europe are played at San Marino's national stadium rather than their own grounds) are usually between 1/10 and 1/3. In 34 European ties, there has only ever been one instance of a Sammarinese side losing by less than two goals on aggregate. La Fiorita would need to avoid defeat for that scenario to happen again tonight, but their record of 11 defeats from 11 games in European competitions suggests that's unlikely. It's hard to tell whether I overestimated Linfield last week - it's unusual for a Sammarinese side to come so close to avoiding defeat away from home, but from the highlights Linfield did seem to be the better side and I still think 1/5 was a big price. They will know there is no room for complacency in the return leg and at 4/9 look a good price to see the job through with some room to spare.

[2017/18 1st Round Qualifying > Jun 27th]

I think Linfield will probably cover the -1 handicap, but I'm playing it safe with the straight win. In the last three years the Sammarinese champions have only lost by one goal in the first legs of their ties at this stage of the competition, although in all cases the narrow margin of the defeats flattered them by all accounts - I remember keeping track of the Pyunik-Folgore game in 2015 when Pyunik had five attempts on goal in the first ten minutes and racked up 26 efforts on goal to Folgore's 3 in the game yet only won 2-1.

 

Unfortunately the odds on the home win are going down across the board, but even 1/7 is a fairly decent price considering La Fiorita's record as well as that of Sammarinese teams away from home in Europe.

[2017/18 1st Round Qualifying > Jun 27th]

The bet of the round for me looks to be Linfield to win at home to La Fiorita at 1/5. I would have expected the odds for this to be around the 1/10 mark. Granted, Linfield aren't the strongest side, but they are playing arguably the weakest team in the competition - La Fiorita have played in European competitions for five consecutive seasons now and have lost all 10 games in that time including a 7-0 defeat to Levadia of Estonia and a 10-1 aggregate defeat to Vaduz of Liechtenstein. Looking at the wider picture, since gaining admission into European club competitions in 2000, Sammarinese sides have lost 33 of 34 away games in European competitions, the sole exception being Tre Fiori's draw with Andorran outfit Sant Julia in 2009. Obviously, results from 15 years ago are not going to have a bearing on next Wednesday's game, but it is clear to see that Sammarinese teams are out of their depth at this level, and as such La Fiorita's 100% losing record in Europe looks set to continue on Wednesday.

[Champions League 16/17 Qualifying]

Just having a quick look at the odds and I'm surprised to see Flora as high as 3/10 at home to Gibraltarian champions Lincoln Red Imps. By comparison, The New Saints from Wales are no bigger than 1/10 at home to Sammarinese champions Tre Penne, and I wouldn't say there is any huge difference in the respective gaps between the sides. Consider the performances of the San Marino and Gibraltar national teams in Euro 2016 qualifying - Gibraltar actually fared worse, losing all 10 games and shipping a staggering 56 goals while Marino managed a point and 'only' conceded 36 times. Of course the national teams cannot be used as an exact benchmark for club sides, but here it is worth noting the significant overlap in the Gibraltar and Lincoln Red Imps squads - the club contributed a high number of players to the national team, and it was clear that they were completely out of their depth in Europe. As for Flora, they're obviously no world-beaters themselves - they're playing in this stage of the competition for a reason - but they are one of the stronger Estonian sides, they are 17 games into their league season and so have the match fitness advantage, and they have been solid at home in their domestic season, conceding in only one of their nine home games thus far and racking up 6-0 wins against two of the league's weaker sides. With this in mind, 3/10 for the straight win looks like decent value.

[Europa League Qualifiers - Second Legs - July 7th and 9th]

Rosenborg - a 1.06 shot - could only draw 0-0 at home to Vikingur, West Ham scraped a 1-0 win in Andorra and Brondby are currently being held at 0-0 at half time in San Marino having had no shots on target; in the first leg they were 6-0 up at the break...what's going on?!

[Champions League Qualifiers - Second Legs - July 7th]

1.36 for Pyunik to win away to Folgore looks decent. If Armenia were playing San Marino away, they would be around 1.2 for the straight win, and while the international sides can't be used as an exact benchmark, these teams are the strongest the respective countries have to offer. Pyunik only won the first leg 2-1, but the result undoubtedly flattered Folgore; the match statistics reveal the extent of Pyunik's dominance with 26 shots on goal to 3 and 11 corners to 3, Folgore scoring with their only effort on target. Pyunik would undoubtedly have been disappointed with the narrow margin of victory and will look to set that straight tonight. Although the performances of Armenian teams in this competition in recent years have hardly been encouraging, the game between these sides last week revealed a considerable difference in quality, and they should have more than enough to finish the job tonight.

[UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Sunday March 29th]

Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Sunday March 29th How bad are Gibraltar? They started off with some impressive friendly results (0-0 draw with Slovakia, who aren't exactly much worse than Scotland) and a victory over Malta, and while the qualifying campaign started with maulings at the hands of Poland and Republic of Ireland, the 4-0 reverse in Germany (the only goal in the second half being an own goal) was a more impressive effort, so a bit of a mixed bag overall. Scotland generally don't tend to thrash the weaker teams (narrow win against Georgia, 97th minute winner against Liechtenstein a few years ago spring to mind). I haven't seen Gibraltar play in these qualifiers so not sure what to expect.

[UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Saturday November 15th]

Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Saturday November 15th Hope no-one followed my tip and got burned as badly as I have. Having watched the full game, I can safely say Estonia are the worst side I've seen playing San Marino, and I've watched many of their games over the years. It wasn't even a case of constant backs-to-the-wall for San Marino; they more than held their own and Estonia's lack of urgency was unbelievable. You would think, having already won against Slovenia in this qualifying campaign, they would have enough to do so against a side that had lost 66 consecutive qualifying matches going into this one. Fair play to San Marino - I have respect for their players and they deserved their point - but it's hard to know where to go from here.

[UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Saturday November 15th]

Re: UEFA Euro 2016 Qualifiers > Friday November 14th Estonia are available at around 1/6 to win away to San Marino tonight, and this looks like a decent money-making opportunity. For those who take a particular interest in San Marino's games, this qualifying campaign is full of potential. The fact that the expansion of the tournament has given teams like Estonia and Lithuania a better chance than they've ever had to qualify should ensure they are fully motivated for these matches. Secondly, consider the fact that Estonia are the fourth seeds in the group and are available at this price; in the World Cup 2014 qualifying campaign, Poland were the fourth seeds in San Marino's group in World Cup 2014 qualifying and they were 1.04 to win in Serravalle. This time around, fifth seeds Lithuania were San Marino's first opponents - they were around 1.2 to win on the day and they did so very comfortably, the game effectively wrapped up by half-time as they were 2-0 up. On the one hand, Estonia's recent away record is poor - they lost four of their five away matches in World Cup 2014 qualifying and have lost their only one to date in this campaign. However, the fact that they're playing San Marino should ensure this match is an exception. To get a comparison, consider San Marino's recent home results against opposition of a fairly similar standard to Estonia: 12/10/2010: San Marino 0-2 Moldova (Euro 2012 qualification) 09/02/2011: San Marino 0-1 Liechtenstein (Friendly) 14/08/2012: San Marino 2-3 Malta (Friendly) 16/10/2012: San Marino 0-2 Moldova (World Cup 2014 qualification) 08/06/2014: San Marino 0-3 Albania (Friendly) 09/08/2014: San Marino 0-2 Lithuania (Euro 2016 qualification) I would consider all of these sides to be certainly no better than Estonia, and most of them slightly worse. I don't read too much into friendly results, but the games against Moldova and Lithuania arguably give a better indication of where the sides are placed. (San Marino also lost 4-0 and 3-0 away to Moldova in the respective qualifying campaigns.) Finally, if this can be used as any sort of benchmark, the champions of both countries met in the Champions League first qualifying round this season. Estonian champions Levadia defeated their Sammarinese counterparts La Fiorita 8-0 on aggregate, winning 1-0 in Serravalle (although by all accounts they were dominant and should have won more comfortably) before recording a more convincing 7-0 win in Tallinn. I wouldn't expect that sort of score and it may not be done and dusted by half-time, but Estonia should have more than enough to win tonight.

[Euro 2016 Qualifying > Monday September 8th]

Re: Euro 2016 Qualifying > Monday September 8th 1/5 for Lithuania to win away to San Marino looks decent value. Lithuania aren't a particularly strong side, but they are better than San Marino; a 2-0 win away to Liechtenstein, a side undoubtedly stronger than San Marino, in World Cup 2014 qualifying, suggests they have what it takes to win here, and going slightly further back they won 1-0 away to Czech Republic in Euro 2012 qualifying. The new format for qualifying gives mid to lower ranked sides a better chance than ever of qualifying, and Lithuania will know this a perfect chance to get off to a winning start against a side that has lost 62 consecutive qualifying matches and 110 of 112 in total. Elsewhere, the Montenegro-Moldova odds have changed to reflect the match more accurately to a degree. Considering Moldova thrashed them 5-2 in Montenegro in the last round of World Cup 2014 qualifying, 1/4 for the home win this time around would be absurd. The prices are now fluctuating around a slightly more realistic 4/9 for Montenegro, with the away win as high as 7/1 - might be worth a speculative punt considering that result!

[Europa League - 1st Qualifying Round - Thursday 4th July]

Re: Europa League - 1st Qualifying Round - Thursday 4th July 1.44 for Metalurg to win at UE Santa Coloma looks a great price. On the one hand, Metalurg have yet to win a game in European competition with this being their fifth consecutive year in the tournament, but they haven't faced opponents of the calibre of UE Santa Coloma, another side making their fifth consecutive appearance in the competition having lost all eight of their games so far. Their near namesakes' victory against Banants last night may understandably make people wary, but Macedonian sides generally haven't had the trouble encountered by Armenian teams in facing the real minnows (Andorran and Sammarinese teams) as these results suggest: 2010-11 Europa League: Rabotnicki 5-0 Lusitanos, Lusitanos 0-6 Rabotnicki 2011-12 Europa League: Juvenes/Dogana 0-1 Rabotnicki, Rabotnicki 3-0 Juvenes/Dogana 2012-13 Europa League: Renova 4-0 Libertas, Libertas 0-4 Renova It's also worth noting that Renova qualified for the 2012-13 tournament by winning the national cup; in the league they finished 24 points behind the leaders and were considered by all accounts a distinctly average Macedonian side and they coasted through the tie. This year, Metalurg have qualified by finishing third in the league, just three points behind champions Rabotnicki. They should have too much for their Andorran opponents, and surely lightning can't strike twice?! Elsewhere, the most eye-catching odds for the opposite reason are 1.13 for Vaduz to beat College Europa. Gibraltian sides are unproven in European competition, but is their perceived standard really so low that a side from Liechtenstein are expected to sail past them? These odds would be more realistic if Vaduz were playing a team from Andorra or San Marino, but if the national teams are any indication Gibraltar's results suggest they have more to them having managed a victory against Malta and draws with Slovakia and Estonia in their five friendly matches since UEFA acceptance. Lincoln Red Imps play Havnar in the Champions League qualifiers tonight, and that will be the first indication of how the club sides perform at this level; in any case, at that price I would suggest going against Vaduz.

[Champions League First Qualifying Round > 1st July & 8th July]

Re: Champions League First Qualifying Round > 1st July & 8th July

Out of interest' date=' MightyWell, where did you find these stats? :unsure[/quote'] It's from my own research - I regularly bet on Andorran and Sammarinese sides at this stage of the European competitions so like to know as much as possible! I've worked out statistics on their all-time records in European competition and checked them over several times to make sure they're 100% accurate - always good to have information to hand. Last night's games didn't exactly go as expected! La Fiorita were seconds away from an historic result, and it's incredible that it took Levadia so long to get the winner. The result reminds me of the Juvenes/Dogana v Rabotnicki Europa League game in 2011 when I backed Rabotnicki and watched the UEFA Live Score updates in agony as they missed chance after chance after chance before finally scoring the winner in the 86th minute. The final match statistics showed they had 31 shots on goal (14 on target) and 14 corners. Sometimes that's the way it goes, and I would expect a more comfortable win for Levadia in Estonia. As for Santa Coloma's win against Banantas, well...Shirak's performances last season against Tre Penne didn't say much for the standard of Armenian football, but this result beggars belief. This time around, there was no comfortable first leg win for the Armenians making the second leg a non-event; it's hard to know what else to say really. Credit to Santa Coloma, though, for an historic win.

[Champions League First Qualifying Round > 1st July & 8th July]

Tomorrow marks an important date on the football calendar - the start of the Champions League! As some regulars on here will know, the very first qualifying round brings some attractive betting prospects, and this year's draw has thrown up some intriguing fixtures. Santa Coloma (AND) v Banants (ARM) La Fiorita (SMR) v Levadia (EST) Lincoln Red Imps (GIB) v Havnar (FAR) Santa Coloma were seeded in the draw, but this does not mean they should be considered favourites. Last year's Armenian champions Shirak were unseeded in the draw when they played Tre Penne of San Marino and they comfortably won 3-0 in the first leg before falling to a humiliating 1-0 defeat in the second leg. This sort of performance doesn't fill people with confidence when it comes to backing the Armenian champions, but consider the calibre of their opponents Santa Coloma; their all-time record in European competition is as follows: Home: P9 W1 D1 L7 F4 A17 GD-13 Away: P10 W0 D0 L10 F6 A38 GD-32 Overall: P19 W1 D1 L17 F10 A55 GD-45 Their draw came at home to Breidablik last year following a 4-0 first leg defeat. In the context of this year's game, where the first leg is in Andorra and actually meaningful, one would expect Banants to come out on top with the away win sitting around the 1.33 mark. Interestingly, the odds are similar - slightly higher - for Levadia to win away to La Fiorita, and this looks a more solid bet. Levadia are well into their season, which started in March, and therefore have match fitness on their side; they're currently second in the league, two points off the top, having won 11 of 17 games. Sammarinese champions La Fiorita have made the step up to the Champions League following two years in the Europa League, but their record doesn't make for convincing reading having lost all four European games without scoring a goal. While Levadia's European record isn't the most impressive, they have eliminated Bala Town of Wales and Siauliai of Lithuania in the last two years which suggests they have what it takes to see off La Fiorita who are surely worse than these two sides. ~1.35 for a Sammarinese side to lose in Europe looks a decent price. The final match is undoubtedly the hardest to call. Gibraltar's first-ever European representatives Lincoln Red Imps won their league comfortably and their squad is considered to be arguably the strongest ever assembled in Gibraltar. Certainly, Gibraltar's national team has taken a few people by surprise, recording draws with Slovakia and Estonia and a victory against Malta in their five international games since being accepted by UEFA; if this can be used as any sort of guidance, it would suggest that their sides are not quite at the whipping boys level of San Marino. On the other hand, their opponents, Havnar, have European experience and match fitness on their side, but are invariably eliminated at the first round of competition. In summary, I would expect away wins for Banants and Levadia this week - the latter looks an attractive price - while the final game represents something of a step into the unknown. Should make for intriguing viewing!

[World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th]

Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Tuesday October 15th

My tip is San Marino to defeat Ukraine @ 81.00 (William Hill.) I know you may think I'm mad, but I believe there's SERIOUS value in backing the outsiders in this one. Let's face it, all these so called minnows are improving big-time, even Luxembourg have a few wins to their name these days. San Marino haven't won in a long time, and I believe this is their time to shine. Ukraine have all the pressure to get all 3 points, which they need if they want to have any chance of overhauling England and seal their place in Brazil, I can foresee them crumbling at the Stadio Olimpico. San Marino managed to notch a famous goal against Poland, and I see no reason why they can't notch a few against an overrated Ukrainian side. At 80/1 it really is worth a small punt.

If you are genuinely serious, you should consider donating your stake to a charity, because backing a San Marino win here (or draw for that matter) is literally as worthwhile as throwing it down a drain. You can't reasonably compare Luxembourg to San Marino. As you say, Luxembourg have picked up a few wins in recent years. When it comes to San Marino, we're talking about a side that has lost every competitive match they've played since 25 April 2001 - 12 years without a single point in World Cup and Euro qualifying. They simply do not have the resources to compete at this level. In the game between the sides last month, Ukraine won 9-0. I wouldn't expect them to much that result tomorrow, but they will win and it's the closest thing to a certainty you will find in football.

[World Cup Europe Qualification > Friday October 11th]

Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > Friday October 11th

San Marino have failed to score an away goal in 10 years' date=' value in Moldova to win to nil @ 1.4 with Betvictor?? Don't know much about Moldova myself any information would be helpful.[/quote'] 1.4 looks like decent value to me. Granted, Moldova aren't the strongest side, but they've shown in recent years they are better than San Marino: 16/10/2012: San Marino 0-2 Moldova 11/10/2011: Moldova 4-0 San Marino 12/10/2010: San Marino 0-2 Moldova As you say, San Marino haven't scored an away goal for 10 years, and that was in a friendly against Liechtenstein. The last time they scored away from home in a qualifying match was against Latvia in 2001, and they haven't kept a clean sheet in a qualifying match since 1993. Moldova aren't the most prolific side, but they have scored against Ukraine (away) and Poland in this campaign, and the results above speak for themselves.

[Scottish Football > 14th & 15th September]

Re: Scottish Football > 14th & 15th September For anyone interested, the first round of the Scottish Cup is today - all SFA member clubs outwith the SPFL enter at this stage of the competition, including some of the very weakest sides, which usually results in some severe mismatches and thrashings. In recent years, the bookies' lack of knowledge on these teams has lead to some over-generous odds which has been great for punters. This year, the draw hasn't been so kind; two of the usual whipping boys (Fort William and Newton Stewart) have been drawn against each other, limiting such opportunities. The biggest mismatch of the round, however, is Inverurie Loco Works v Burntisland Shipyard. Inverurie are one of the more solid Highland League teams, currently third in the table with five wins from six games, whereas Shipyard are a weak amateur side and arguably out of their depth at this level - these are their results from recent years: 2010/11: Glasgow University 1-0 Burntisland Shipyard 2011/12: Culter 4-0 Burntisland Shipyard 2012/13: Turriff United 6-1 Burntisland Shipyard (It's also worth noting that in 2010/11, Glasgow University lost their second round match 8-1 against Junior side Beith.) The odds on the home win - hovering around 1/8 - reflect the mismatch between the sides, but a legendary Betfair forumite who goes by the name superbigal has uncovered a great find. In recent years, his tips have helped forumites win thousand of pounds on handicap bets on the biggest mismatches; this year, the draw hasn't been so conducive to this, and bookies generally seem to be more cautious with these games, but the website youwin.com is offering a wide range of odds on these games, and they have the Inverurie clean sheet up at evens. This looks well overpriced. On the one hand, anyone who saw San Marino v Poland in midweek will know that this bet always carries this unpredictable risk. At these odds, however, I reckon this one is an attractive proposition.

[World Cup Europe Qualification > 10th September]

Re: World Cup Europe Qualification > 10th September San Marino's first goal in a competitive match since October 2008. You couldn't make it up. I guess the lesson here is that these BTTS bets always carry that risk of a freak one-off incident. Over the course of 90 minutes, the norm can be expected to happen - Poland will win this match comfortably - but this demonstrates more than anything really that it only takes a moment for the most unexpected occurence like this to put down a bet.

[UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round 1st Leg > 1st August]

Re: UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round 1st Leg > 1st August Minsk v St Johnstone I feel St Johnstone have a good chance of coming back with something from this one. Having dispatched Rosenborg - opponents of undoubtedly higher calibre than Minsk - in the previous round, they would appear to have a great chance of taking a step closer to the group stages. Firstly, the game will not be played at Minsk's home stadium, which is currently being renovated, but instead 140 miles away in Grodno - as a result, the home side aren't expected to have too many fans at the game. Secondly, Minsk are far from the strongest team in Belarus; they're currently 7th (out of 12) in their league, and last year they only finished 6th with a goal difference of -10, qualifying for Europe as a result of winning the Cup. Their only previous participation in the Europa League two years ago saw them edge past Azal of Azerbaijan 3-2 on aggregate before crashing out 5-2 on aggregate to Gaziantepspor of Turkey - so they don't have much European pedigree. Having seen St Johnstone several times last season, I would say they are one of the more solid teams in Scotland, and they have offset the loss of a couple of key players from last season with hot prospect Stevie May returning on loan and the signing of David Wotherspoon from Hibernian. With this in mind, the double chance (St Johnstone-Draw) looks tempting at 7/10 with Bet365, or for the more ambitious the outright win is 12/5.

[UEFA Europa League 1st Qualifying Round 2nd leg > 10th - 11th July]

Re: UEFA Europa League 1st Qualifying Round 2nd leg > 10th - 11th July

Think its difficult to say, look at last year - Elfsborg beat Floriana 4-0 away after an 8-0 win at home, Twente beat Santa Coloma 3-0 away after a 6-0 win at home, Liepājas Metalurgs beat Florita 4-0 after a 2-0 win in the first leg - the obvious difference there was that Twente and Elfsborg are far better than anything we had to bet on at this stage this year! Christ knows why Twente were in the first qual round anyway.. I wouldn't get carried away with the results this year, I thought Libertas looked utterly terrible and a better side would have hammered them, unfortunately Sarajevo weren't up to it, and Libertas scored with their only shot on target of the night. Had the same with Santa Coloma last week, 1 shot on target 1 goal. Look at the results over 2 legs and there have been plenty of hammerings about 7 games - looking quickly - had agg victories of 4 goals or more, I have had a tactic of looking more at countries than teams as a way of gauging probable performance in recent years, perhaps need to look at the sides they are playing more and cast the net further in other games. These things move in cycles, for years you would bet against Welsh and N.Irish sides almost blind as they were always useless, now proving far more resilient. I'll be honest though I would play those Sarajevo bets again in a heartbeat, I really didn't see anything there - until the massive odds changes before the second leg - that I thought would trip me up. Look at the next round though, so many more better sides coming in, the comparison to the standard of teams in this round looks staggering on paper - Lech Poznan, Standard Liege, Utrecht, Anorthosis Fam. etc.

It is difficult to say regarding second leg results after one-sided first leg games. Now that this season's round of games are completed, Andorran sides record in Europe now reads P75, W1, D6, L68; for Sammarinese sides, it's P50, W1, D4, L45. This means that, in the vast majority of cases, they have lost both the first and second legs. I'd be inclined to think their opponents would, more often than not, still be motivated to win the second leg after a convincing first leg victory - if the manager uses it as an opportunity to give a few fringe players in a game, they should be motivated to stake their claim for a place in the team, and would the country's coefficient not benefit with another victory? Yet look at this season, for example - Breidablik failing to win away to Santa Coloma...they showed in the first leg they're a class above them, so was this down to complacency? It's hard to tell. What you say about Welsh and Northern Irish sides is very true - as well as Prestatyn's result, in recent years we've had Bangor City eliminating Honka, Llanelli winning their first leg against Dinamo Tbilisi, Cefn Druids holding Mypa in their first leg, Glentoran eliminating Renova, Linfield drawing with Rosenborg and BATE...the days of double figure aggregate defeats only a few years ago seem a long way away. Wouldn't like to think Andorran and Sammarinese sides are going the same way!

[UEFA Europa League 1st Qualifying Round 2nd leg > 10th - 11th July]

Re: UEFA Europa League 1st Qualifying Round 2nd leg > 10th - 11th July Not sure what to think after the first qualifying rounds of this season's European competitions. The most striking and surprising aspect for me has been the performance of Andorran and Sammarinese sides - while the majority of their games have still ended in defeats, overall it's surely been the best performance from clubs from both countries to date. For Andorra, Lusitanos and Santa Coloma recorded draws in their home games, while UE Santa Coloma only lost 1-0 away; for San Marino, La Fiorita fell to the narrowest of defeats, 1-0 to a 90th minute penalty, in their away leg, while Libertas kept both their games to single-goal defeats...the most remarkable result of all, however, was Tre Penne 1-0 Shirak - the first time a Sammarinese side (domestic or national) has ever won a competitive game in European competition; a quite astonishing result. Are we seeing an upturn in fortunes for the minnows? For years, opposing these sides has been among the most consistently reliable betting strategies - while not likely to yield huge dividends, you could usually be very confident that it was safe. This season's results suggest that it may not be quite so cast iron, which isn't too encouraging.

[UEFA Europa League 1st Qualifying Round 2nd leg > 10th - 11th July]

Re: UEFA Europa League 1st Qualifying Round 2nd leg > 10th - 11th July

the one wager i took was on the Latvian side vs Prestatyn. Wasn't watching but I'm assuming once they went down to 10men the welshmen were able to capitalize and not only get a result, but force ET, penalties, and actually advanced. Cheers to those lads, judging from some tweets i saw, they've really made Wales and Wales football proud. Were Prestatyn advancing this round's biggest shock?

It was definitely up there - for Prestatyn to come back from 1-0 down with 15 minutes to go to win the match in 90 minutes, see through extra time in spite of the full-time/part-time disadvantage and the fact that Liepajas are well into their season with match fitness on their side, and hold their nerve to win it on penalties was a terrific effort. There has been no shortage of shocks today - as well as Prestatyn's comeback, there was Vikingur winning away at Inter Turku and qualifying for the next round and ten-man Santa Coloma drawing with Breidablik, who thrashed them last week. Elsewhere, Valletta and Zrinjski Mostar scraped the narrowest of wins against Sammarinese and Andorran opposition at home. An intriguing day of Europa League action - just hope people weren't too badly burnt on some of the more surprising results.

[CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July]

Re: CL First / Second Qualifying Round > 2nd July & 16th July

Is that the first game a team from San Marino have ever won in Europe?

Yes - at the 48th attempt (although I use that word loosely; the norm for Sammarinese sides in Europe is to put men behind the ball and try to keep the score down). It's also the fifth time out of the 48 games that a Sammarinese side has avoided defeat in Europe, the others being Tre Fiori's two 1-1 draws with similar Andorran minnows Sant Julia, a fairly respectable 1-1 draw for Libertas against Droghead United slightly further back, and a goalless draw for Faetano against Zestafoni a couple of years ago after a 5-0 first-leg defeat. While Shirak didn't look any great shakes in the first leg, you have to wonder how bad they must really be to succumb to this sort of result.

[EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July]

Re: EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July Hope some people benefited from backing Breidablik when they were overpriced. I suspected there was a difference in class between the sides, although I would never have envisaged them going 3-0 up in 25 minutes! For me the most astonishing result of the day is Sarajevo 1-0 Libertas - considering the outright win was 1.03, it's truly incredible that it was by such a narrow margin. The match stats on the UEFA site make for remarkable reading - apparently Sarajevo had 34 shots, 15 on target...and only one goal to show for it! Extremely unlucky for handicap backers.

[EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July]

Re: EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July Hibernians are a Maltese side, and while not the strongest in Europe, they would appear to be easily a class above the likes of Andorra and San Marino on the basis that, in the last two seasons, Valletta have comfortably defeated the champions of both in the Champions League qualifiers, thrashing Lusitanos 9-0 on aggregate in 2012-13 and Tre Fiori 5-1 on aggregate the year before that. Sarajevo won 13 out of 15 home games last season, were the top scorers in the league and are playing a side who lost 8-0 over two legs to Renova last season. I would be very surprised if they don't win by at least three clear goals.

[EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July]

Re: EL First Qualifying Round > 2nd - 3rd July The biggest mismatch of the round looks to be Sarajevo v Libertas. Sarajevo look to be a solid outfit, finishing 2nd in the Bosnian league last season, winning 13 out of 15 home games. Libertas are from San Marino - they qualified for the second consecutive year by losing to Tre Penne in their domestic league competition final. Last season, they were thrashed 8-0 on aggregate by Renova - by all accounts a distinctly average Macedonian side. The match odds reflect this mismatch, but the handicaps may be worth a look. The most eye-catching match odds I've seen are Breidablik at 1.35 to win at home to Santa Coloma on Bwin. I would have expected the odds on the home win to be closer to 1.10-1.15. Now, I know the Icelandic league isn't the strongest in the world, but I would thought it's surely at least a class above Andorra's? To get a sense of perspective, consider Santa Coloma's all-time record in European competitions: Home: P8 W1 D0 L7 F4 A17 GD-13 Away: P9 W0 D0 L9 F6 A34 GD-28 Overall: P17 W1 D0 L16 F10 A51 GD-41 The reason they have played nine away games and only eight at home is because in 2010 their home tie against Birkirkara was postponed due to an issue with the pitch. UEFA awarded the game 3-0 to Birkirkara, but I've not included this in the stats because it doesn't seem particularly fair; Birkirkara only won the game in Malta 4-3. Still, the record speaks for itself, and it's also worth noting that an Andorran side has only ever avoided defeat in an away leg in European competition once, and this was against a side from San Marino. Now, I'm no expert on Icelandic football, but I've actually seen Breidablik play, against my own team (Motherwell), a few years ago - there wasn't much between the teams in our home leg, and they hit the post at one point before a fluke goal saw us record a 1-0 win. Their season is currently underway, so they should have match fitness on their side, and they're currently 4th out of 12 having won four out of five home games on the back of three consecutive victories in their last three games. My initial thoughts are that they should have too much for Santa Coloma; if anyone can confirm the situation regarding full-time/part-time clubs in Iceland, specifically whether Breidablik are a full-time professional side, that would be helpful. Definitely one to watch!