[Serie A > 18th - 19th May]

Re: Serie A > 18th - 19th May If there are any Italian posters their input could be useful here - what is the mentality of Siena and Pescara likely to be - will they try their best to get a decent result at home on the last day, or will they not to try to stand in the way of Milan and Fiorentina's ambitions? Clearly, Milan and Fiorentina are better sides in the first place, but the odds on the away wins are so low that I have to wonder why this is the case.

[Serie B > Sat 18th May]

Re: Serie B > Sat 18th May The two odds-on draws this weekend are obviously the standouts this week - the situation is quite complex, so for anyone wondering, the rationale for them is as follows: Hellas Verona v Empoli Here, a draw guarantees Verona automatic promotion to Serie A and Empoli a play-off place. The top of the table is as follows: 1. Sassuolo +37 82 2. Verona +35 81 3. Livorno +31 80 4. Empoli +19 72 Because Sassuolo and Livorno are playing each other on the last day, a point guarantees that Verona will finish in the top two and therefore win automatic promotion to Serie A. If Sassuolo win or draw their game, the draw in Verona-Empoli ensures Verona will finish ahead of Livorno on points. If Livorno win at Sassuolo, they would finish as champions on 83 points with Verona and Sassuolo both on 82, and the key factor here is the head-to-head record between the sides - head-to-head record takes precedence over goal difference in the league table in Serie B, and Verona have the better head-to-head record against Sassuolo, so they would finish above them. The game is also crucial for Empoli. They are already guaranteed to finish in 4th place which, under normal circumstances, would guarantee a play-off place. However, the key factor is that if the third-placed team in Serie B finishes 10 or more points ahead of the fourth-placed team, the play-offs are cancelled and the top three are automatically promoted. A draw ensures this cannot happen as Empoli would only finish nine points behind Verona who would also be guaranteed to finish in the top two - therefore the play-offs would take place. I would imagine, then, that Verona would want to make sure of automatic promotion and Empoli will want to make sure they do get in the play-offs and they won't want a strenuous match ahead of the start of the play-offs. With all this in mind, it's very hard to see how this can be anything other than a draw. Novara v Lanciano In this case, the stakes are higher for Lanciano than Novara. Novara are already guaranteed a fifth-placed finish, and like Empoli will presumably not want a strenuous match in which they risk injuries etc. prior to the play-offs. For Lanciano, a point guarantees that they'll avoid relegation. The situation in and around the relegation zone is as follows: 16. Reggina -9 48 17. Lanciano -10 47 18. Cittadella -14 47 19. Vicenza -17 41 20. Ascoli -18 41 Under normal circumstances, the 18th- and 19th-placed teams go into a play-off at the end of the season to determine which side is relegated. However, if the 18th-placed team finishes the season with five or more points than the 19th-placed team, the play-off is cancelled and the 19th-placed side is automatically relegated instead. The fact that all the teams around Lanciano are playing one another (Vicenza v Reggina, Cittadella v Ascoli) complicates matters further. Essentially, the only scenario that would see Lanciano in a relegation play-off at the end of the season is: Lanciano lose; Cittadella draw; Vicenza win. This would see Lanciano finish 18th on 47 points, only three ahead of 19th-placed Vicenza. However, this looks highly unlikely; a draw for Lanciano with the same results in the Cittadella-Ascoli and Vicenza-Reggina games would ensure Lanciano finish 17th, above Cittadella who would go into the play-off instead. Lanciano and Cittadella are equal on head-to-head record (3-2 win for Lanciano, 1-0 win for Cittadella; away goals don't count) so the next factor to determine league placings is goal difference, and Lanciano's is superior. In this case, then, Lanciano definitely have more of a vested interest in the outcome, but it's hard to see why Novara would go all out to win in a game that is essentially meaningless for them; instead I would imagine it's more likely they'd be happy to see out a comfortable match, not end the season with a defeat at home and not try to damage Lanciano's hopes of avoiding the drop. So that's the situation - going through all the permutations is quite the mathematical exercise, but essentially the draw suits both Verona and Empoli and looks highly probable, and the same outcome can probably be expected in Novara-Lanciano.

[WC > European Qualifiers - October 16th]

Re: WC > European Qualifiers - October 16th

San Marino v Moldova San Marino are the worst side in International football, there is no point in comparing the match against England with this one as the ability levels are obviously different league but I think Moldova are a reasonably organised outfit who are difficult to break down away from home. Granted Moldova hardly have an impressive record away from home recently, but we can compare their recent matches against San Marino in the Euro 2012 qualifiers when Moldova won 2-0 away and 4-0 at home. They lost the other 4 qualifiers in the group but only failed to score in one match (against the Netherlands where they lost 1-0), scoring against Hungary, Sweden and Finland. If you look through the Moldova squad they have players plying their trade in a variety of leagues in Europe, granted nobody is at a top club, but they certainly have more pedigree than San Marino who are a joke. I would back anyone at these odds against this lot, San Marino can't keep possession in forward areas and struggle to create openings, Moldova are usually a dogged defensive side who get broken down by better sides but they know they can win this game more so than most of the others in the group, I think the 1.83 on them winning to nil is far more attractive than the 1.2 on them winning straight..under 2.5 looks good too at 2.37 with bluesquare. Moldova to Win to Nil - 1.83 - williamhill - 5 Points

Yeah, I'd agree with this, that price looks huge. On the one hand, Moldova's recent record is far from impressive - they haven't scored a goal in their last eight matches (albeit five of those were friendlies) since a 4-0 win over San Marino this time last year. But to put it in perspective, San Marino haven't avoided defeat in a qualifying match for 11 years and haven't scored a goal in 4 years. In the Euro 2012 qualifiers, outwith the San Marino games, Moldova lost all bar one of their matches and still comfortably defeated San Marino twice; the 4-0 win in Chisinau came on the back of a run of six consecutive defeats (five qualifiers, one friendly). So while they're not the strongest side, they should still have enough to come out on top in this one.

[World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th]

Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th Yeah, I also watched the San Marino-Montenegro game - incredibly, San Marino had a goalbound shot cleared off the line at 0-0, and they were enjoying more possession than they usually do in the early stages, but once the first goal went in Montenegro relaxed and took control and from then the outcome was never in doubt. Even still, I was surprised by the margin of victory - 6-0 at home to an average side who were apparently depleted by injury shows where they are I suppose, but what can you do when you have to pick your national side from a population of 32,000? Incidentally, they're still not bottom of the group - that spot is currently occupied by Moldova - so should be interesting when the two meet in Serravalle next month!

[First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July]

Re: First qualifying round, 1st leg > 3-5 July La Fiorita v Liepajas Metalurgs There seems to be value in the away win here at ~1.3. While not a huge price, when you compare it to similar mismatches (~1.15 for Osijek at Santa Coloma) it starts to look interesting. Admittedly, this is more a bet against the Sammarinese team than for the Latvian side, but considering the facts it looks pretty solid. Consider San Marino teams' record in Europe: Home: P19 W0 D3 L16 F8 A57 GD-49 Away: P20 W0 D1 L19 F5 A75 GD-70 Overall: P39 W0 D4 L35 F13 A132 GD-119 The record includes Sammarinese champions Tre Penne's 7-0 defeat away to F91 Dudelange of Luxembourg on Tuesday night. To get a sense of perspective, F91 Dudelange were themselves defeated 6-1 on aggregate by Latvian champions Ventspils in the Champions League qualifiers three years ago. Last season, Liepajas Metalurgs finished 2nd in the Latvian league, one point behind Ventspils, winning 13 out of 16 away games. I don't know much about Liepajas Metalurgs aside from these statistics, so if anyone can help out here that would be much appreciated, but with all of the above in mind I would suggest they look very likely to come out on top here.

[UEFA Europa League - Thursday 21 July]

Re: UEFA Europa League - Thursday 21 July

Rabotnicki -1 @ 1.22 Bnei Yehuda -1 @ 1.23 Double pays 1.5 with Bwin After getting burnt by Rabotnicki on the handicap last week, I'm going to give them another go here. They beat Juvenes/Dogana 1-0 away, but were completely dominant in terms of shots and corners. In the last 6 years, no team from San Marino has beaten this handicap away from home (except one game against an Andorran side, which doesn't really count) which shows the quality difference. As I said last week, Rabotnicki are a decent side who normally progress through the first few qualifying rounds of the Europa League. I would go for a bigger handicap, but this is by far the best value on offer here, so I'm not put off by the fact that I am backing a short-priced favourite. Bnei Yehuda are Israeli, playing a team from Andorra, UE Sant Julia. Andorran sides are a bit better than Sanmarinese sides, and I've noted an improvement in performances at home, but they still struggle greatly away from home. Again, looking back over the last 6 years, Andorran sides have only beaten this handicap once, if we leave out of the equation the aforementioned clash with a team from San Marino. This game was a bizarre second-leg 4-3 defeat in Malta, after the first game was (rather unfairly) called off yet awarded as a 0-3 away win due to heavy rain. I'm not too put off with this due to the class difference between Israeli and Maltese teams. Bnei Yeduda won the second leg 2-0, but in front of their own fans they should do enough to beat the handicap. High stakes (8/10) for me.

Excellent post. I've been doing some research on Wikipedia on the fortunes of Andorran and Sammarinese sides in Europe over the years, and it's thrown up some interesting facts: - Andorran sides' record in away European matches reads: P29, W0, D1, L28. - 27 of the 28 defeats were by at least two goals (in most cases at least 4). - This season, Andorran sides' away games have resulted in 5-1, 4-0 and 2-0 defeats (the latter being champions Santa Coloma against F91 Dudelange from Luxembourg - a considerably weaker league than Israel's) - Sammarinese sides' record in away European matches is: P18, W0, D1, L17. - 16 out of 17 defeats were by at least two goals - again, in the majority of matches ended up thrashings - with the only single-goal defeat being Tre Fiori's against Valletta of Malta this season. I wouldn't worry too much about that, with a Macedonian side surely being a higher standard. The other game involving a Sammarinese team this season ended Rad 6-0 Tre Penne: a result more reflective of the mismatch between Rabotnicki and Juvenes/Dogana, who finished 4th in their league. It's also worth noting that neither tie is effectively over yet as the first legs finished 1-0 and 2-0 respectively, so the onus is still on Bnei Yehuda and Rabotnicki to get the job done, and Rabotnicki in particular will probably be looking to set things right after scraping a win in the first leg.

[World Cup Qualifiers 10/11 October 2009]

Re: World Cup Qualifiers 10th October 2009 Mulling over a couple of bets in the qualifying card this weekend: Montenegro v Georgia - Draw (11/4) The odds on a Montenegro win are absurdly low, and I don't know why they are dropping. Does no-one realise that they haven't managed to win a single qualification game in eight attempts? Last time around, they were held to a 1-1 draw at home by Cyprus in which they only scored through a penalty. Four days earlier, they were thumped 4-1 in Bulgaria. How can anyone back a side in this form at odds-on? Granted, Georgia's campaign has been something of a damp squib, but they've hardly been whipping boys - they were highly unfortunate away to Ireland when they led 1-0 for 70 minutes before a controversial penalty proved the turning point in a 2-1 defeat. When the sides met in Tbilisi in April, they played out a goalless draw, and I would expect another stalemate this time around. A price of 11/4 looks too big; there's certainly no value in the home win. Slovakia v Slovenia - Draw (13/8) When the draw was made, who would have thought this meeting between the fourth and fifth-seeded sides would prove decisive in qualification from Group 3? The similarly-named countries which confused a certain George Walker Bush have overcome their lowly ranking and are now in pole position to finish as the top two sides in the group. It's somewhat unusual to see a draw priced lower than 2/1 in qualification, but there's a good reason for this. A point guarantees that Slovakia will win the group and thus automatically qualify for their first ever major finals. It would also take Slovenia to 15 points with the prospect of San Marino four days later representing a guaranteed three points. That would give the Slovenes a total of 18 points which can, in theory, be matched by Czech Republic who face Poland and Northern Ireland at home in their last two home games. In the first place, though, I would be surprised if the Czechs won both games; they lost to Poland earlier in the campaign and only drew with Northern Ireland. Even if they managed to accumulate six points from these games, Slovenia's last-day meeting against San Marino sets them in good stead to rack up a decisive goal difference advantage. With this in mind, you would think Slovakia would be ecstatic with a draw and Slovenia would be very satisfied too.