[Weekend > Nov 4th - 6th]

Ingolstadt vs. Augsburg

Current form based on past games

Ingolstadt: Ingolstadt has only got 1 point out of their last 8 Bundesliga games against Dortmund. That game was an off day for Dortmund with a disastrous first half, but Ingolstadt gave away a two goal lead twice to draw 3:3 and even almost conceded a 3:4 with the last chance of the game for Aubameyang. As a result the coach is under pressure, but the players are backing him so far in media showing that this is not a team spirit issue.

 

Augsburg: Augsburg has only got five points out of their last 7 Bundesliga games. They could only beat Darmstadt that has less quality. They draw to Leverkusen away from home (very lucky) and Schalke at home (1:1). Their latest away game against Freiburg was actually pretty good, but they were wasteful in attack and done weak individual mistakes in defense.

 

·         Expected line up and alternative options

 

Ingolstadt: Nyland – Hadergjonaj (Levels) – Matip (Bregerie) – Tisserand – Suttner – Hartmann – Roger – Cohen (Leckie) – Groß – Hinterseer – Lezcano

 

In midfield Morales is out again and will be replaced by Cohen or Leckie. If Leckie comes in, Groß will move next to Roger and Leckie covers left wing. In defense, Matip is doubtful and could be replaced by Bregerie which would be a clear weakening.

 

Augsburg: Casteels (Benaglio) – Träsch – Bruma – Rodriguez – Gerhardt – Seguin – Gustavo – Kuba – Arnold – Caliguiri – Gomez

 

Hitz – Verhaegh – Janker (Kacar) – Hinteregger (Rieder) – Stafylidis – Kacar (Kohr) – Baier – Koo – Altintop (Finnbogason) – Schmid – Ji

 

Augsburg missing JIC, Gouweleeuw in defense and Hinteregger is now also doubtful on this position. However, with Kohr possible to play, Kacar could move back to center back position either for Janker or Hinteregger if injured. This situation is still an issue for Augsburg. In offense Finnbogason might be an option after coming back from injury, but the team still misses a player like Caiuby (out this year) for the wings.

 

·         Tactic and game plans of both teams

 

Ingolstadt: Ingolstadt plays in a 4-2-2-2 formation similar to Freiburg. This allows them to make pressure early in offense, but comes along with the issue of having one player less in midfield. As a result the team turns out to defend a little deeper and try to create danger in transition play. Tactically the team has changed a lot compared to last season, where the side was pressing all together. This did not work out that well with the new coach earlier this season, so that they now defend deeper and do not press up high all the time. They are still in a transition period (similar to Bayern) with all the issues that come along in such a period.

 

Augsburg: Augsburg plays a classical 4-2-3-1 formation with a defensive midfield duo formed by one player who is a little more creative by going forward and another player being a defensive minded player. Chances are created either by wing play, or by long ball build up play where the long ball are or rebounds are won to make pressure in the opponents half.

 

·         Chances and risks of the individual tactics used against the respectively opponent

 

Ingolstadt changed their formation from a 4-3-3 to a 4-2-2-2 formation and is now facing Augsburg in a classical 4-2-3-1 formation. This game will be very intense as both teams have their specific issues all season long. Ingolstadt is looking for the right balance and is now turning into a team more reactive. However, playing at home will come along with the expectation of getting three points against a direct rival for relegation and under this circumstances Ingolstadt will again face the issue of finding the right balance between defense and offense. Augsburg is focusing on strong defense and regularly defends deep as well. They then go forward through the wings or with long balls which led to rebounds that the team wants to win in order to catch the defense off balance.

 

In terms of scoring capacity, both teams are suffering a little from their defensive approaches. Ingolstadt can be certainly described as having a little more power going forward, but Augsburg has also improved in this aspect of the game recently. Both teams are very evenly matched, however there are some doubtful players for each team and the real lineups might give a hindsight about which team is handicapped more in prior to the game.

 

·         Influence of past or upcoming midweek games

Ingolstadt: No midweek game. International Break after this game.

 

Augsburg: No midweek game. International Break after this game.

 

·         Weather and Pitch Conditions

 

Excellent pitch in Ingolstadt with 7 degrees expected. Around kick-off time there is only 20-26 percent rain risk expected.

 

·         General Club/Coach Situation

Ingolstadt: Ingolstadt under some pressure with only two points so far in this season. However the players back up their coach and performances like the 3:3 against Dortmund give some sort of believe in the management and fans. The situation has to change soon and only points help here.

 

Augsburg: Augsburg has some struggle right now, which is mainly due to the lack of quality in the team and injuries. It is a transition season also with a new coach and it takes some time to adapt certain aspects of the game to the team.

 

[Weekend > Nov 4th - 6th]

Hamburg vs. Dortmund

Current form based on past games

Hamburg: Hamburg is struggling hard this season and the coach change had no influence on this so far. Despite getting a draw in Gladbach (very lucky), they lost clearly at home against Frankfurt (0:3) and in Köln (3:0). The latest game in Köln described the problem of the team. They are not always playing bad. Köln had real issues for a long time in the game. But a stupid red card led to the team losing clearly once again. In Bundesliga it is not enough to play well for some period of the game and this is where Hamburg has to improve in order to get results.

 

Dortmund: The young Dortmund team is doing fairly well with the intensity of the schedule, although the intensity is getting to them. They qualified for K.O. stage in UCL which is huge and also advanced to the next round in the Cup. However, their recent four games where very shaky. In Ingolstadt they had a disastrous first half. Against Union Berlin they advanced only by penalties, playing at home against second division team. In the derby they showed a slow form, playing 0:0 which is a fair result despite their improved form and chances in the second half. During the week the team got a 1:0 win over Sporting Lisbon playing very, very bad. That was probably the worst performance all season, with no domination defensively after the lead. Coach Tuchel tried to adjust a lot, but things went even more south. After the game the team was just happy that they brought the game home and Tuchel saying “we won’t analyze this game tactically” indicated how intense this period was even for him and that results are more important right now given the circumstances.

 

·         Expected line up and alternative options

 

Hamburg: Adler – Diekmeier – Cleber – Spahic – Djourou – Santos – Kostic – Sakai – Jung – Waldschmidt (Ostrzolek) – Lasogga

 

Bobby Wood will miss in attack after suspension. Goalkeeper Drobny injured, Hitzel as well. There is some information that Adler is doubtful too, so that Mickel might get to play for Hamburg. This could be a problem, but Mickel already played Bundesliga for Hamburg and actually Hamburg ended up winning that game.

 

Dortmund: Bürki – Piszczek (Ginter) – Sokratis – Ginter (Bartra) – Passlack (Guerreiro) – Pulisic (Schürrle) – Castro (Kagawa) – Weigl – Götze – Dembele – Aubameyang

 

After the intensive midweek game a couple of players were totally wasted. Guerreiro first to name could be replaced by Passlack. Schürrle not ready for 90 minutes yet. Castro was also tired, but possibly has to play. Piszczek could be replaced by Ginter; Bartra could start on center back then.

 

·         Tactic and game plans of both teams

Hamburg: Hamburg could play in a 5-4-1 formation against Dortmund to keep the wings occupied with two players and have three players in the center to close up gaps that can be created when the full backs are linked deep on the wings. With the full backs, Kostic and the other wing midfielder, Hamburg will look to counter attack against Dortmund when winning the ball. Focus will be on good defense.

 

Dortmund: Dortmund plays in a 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-4-1 formation most of the times. They like to play a strong passing play, which requires a strong positional play as well. They have a lot of speed through the wings (full backs and wingers) which they use to get forward, while the center positions should be available as passing options and creativity source.

 

·         Chances and risks of the individual tactics used against the respectively opponent

 

This game will be all about how quick and with how much quality can Dortmund move the ball. Hamburg will look to defend with a lot of players to then be there whenever Dortmund gets sloppy on the ball when going forward. Hamburg has some speed on the wings, but compared to a team like Hoffenheim who play a similar formation recently, they just do not have the confidence, trust and also partly the quality to play this formation successfully for most of the time. However, given the intense schedule of Dortmund and relatively young squad, Hamburg might get a chance in this game when they can push those technical and quick players to play a football of fight, intensity and tackles. The 5-4-1 could allow Hamburg to get enough players behind the ball to face Dortmund offense players in 1 on 1 tackles with backups and drain the energy out of Dortmund’s play. It is not to underestimate, that motivation is totally different after CL game at home. This away game will be another test for the young Dortmund side. Individually, Hamburg has enough problems against Dortmund. Mentally however, Hamburg has got a chance to make themselves believe there is something to get in this game.

 

The relatively high handicap of -1 for Dortmund does not look attractive to me. The recent game against Sporting show us, that Dortmund is mentally and physically not fit enough to bring the rest after a lead. Tuchel recently said that their issues are also closely linked to the absences of Guerreiro and Castro, their best assist givers. In the last game Guerreiro was totally in the red zone after 30-40 minutes already and managed to play through somehow. Castro was very weak as well, indicating fitness/form problems too. I expect no improvement for this game by those two players and even expect at least one of them to be benched first.

Hamburg on the other hand is not showing the confidence and stability to back them here on the high handicap. They fall apart too often after being behind despite playing well big parts of the game. A game in which Dortmund struggles, but scores efficiently could just lead to Hamburg conceding another goal. As a result I do not want to get involved here one or the other side.

 

·         Influence of past or upcoming midweek games

Hamburg: No midweek game. Upcoming International Break next week.

 

Dortmund: Dortmund finishing this intense run of games with this Bundesliga game before the International “break” starts. The side is pretty young and it is very obvious that certain players are in the red zone most of the games affecting the overall game of Dortmund.

 

·         Weather and Pitch Conditions

 

Excellent pitch in Hamburg with 11 degrees expected. No Rain, low wind.

 

·         General Club/Coach Situation

Hamburg: Hamburg remains to be a disaster. A lot of money, fans and history do not help to get the team going. The recent coach exchange has not helped at all so far and the club has to be careful to not get punished with relegation this year. Pressure is right on here.

 

Dortmund: Dortmund obviously not happy with the league standings so far, but given the intensity of the schedule, the progress in UCL/Cup and the changes in the squad made this summer, the club can be still satisfied. It will be important to keep the focus and get points in Bundesliga, even if the way of playing is not as impressive as it can be with a fit Dortmund side.

 

[Weekend > Nov 4th - 6th]

Freiburg vs. Wolfsburg

Current form based on past games

Freiburg: Freiburg is in solid form recently. While they had a seven game “home win”, “away loss” run which indicated a strong home advantage, they also managed to win away from home against Werder Bremen with 1:3. The game was pretty open, but Freiburg was the efficient side which gave them an advantage over their opponents. In their last home game two weeks ago Freiburg won 2:1 against Augsburg, but was not convincing too much scoring from a set piece and a huge individual mistake, while Augsburg had chances to lead 0:1 themselves and could almost come back to a 2:2 late in the game.

Wolfsburg: Wolfsburg is still struggling this season. While at the beginning of the season a lot of results could have also gone either way, they had some issues in the recent rounds. The 3:1 loss in Darmstadt was introduced by an individual mistake leading to a red card. After that game, Wolfsburg won efficiently in the Cup against Heidenheim which represented how the team could play. They deserved draws more often than losing games and could even win those games when using the chances better in offense. After the Cup game Wolfsburg lead 1:0 at home against Leverkusen, just to hand the game away in the last 15 minutes which shows that Wolfsburg is not suffering because of a lack of quality only, but that the mental part of the game got them most. In the second half the team just defended deep instead of being proactive themselves.

 

·         Expected line up and alternative options

Freiburg: Schwolow – Stenzel – Torrejon – Söyüncü – Günter – Frantz – Höfler – Abrashi – Grifo – Niederlechner (Petersen) - Philipp

Freiburg will miss Gulde on center back position, who will be replaced by the old and experienced Torrejón. The other injuries are missing for a longer time already.

Wolfsburg: Casteels (Benaglio) – Träsch – Bruma – Rodriguez – Gerhardt – Seguin – Gustavo – Kuba – Arnold – Caliguiri - Gomez

Draxler, Henrique and Vierinha are missing’s for Wolfsburg prior to this game and limit their offensive options. Additionally Knoche got knocked out one week ago, which led the coach to rotate Rodriguez from left back to center back and move Gerhardt on left back position. This change could lead to a better build up from the left side of the defense, but has some question marks behind the initial defending part of the back four. Didavi could be back in midfield after a long injury he is back in team training for one week.

·         Tactic and game plans of both teams

Freiburg: Freiburg plays a 4-4-2 formation with two defensive midfielders and two creative/quick wing players. The formation could also be described as a 4-2-2-2 formation. The formation allows Freiburg to pressure their opponents a little more in attack, while at least one of the strikers can fall back into midfield by nature to adapt the formation to a more controlled 4-4-1-1 formation when defending. As a result the tactic used by Freiburg is a little more flexible than the 4-4-2 initially shows.

Freiburg is an intense playing side, running more than their opponents in most of their games to win the ball by pressing. They also risk a little more when passing forward, which leads to a lower passing quote and sometimes lead to Freiburg having issues to face quick attacks.

Wolfsburg: Wolfsburg sticks to a classical 4-2-3-1 formation even with the current temporary coach Ismael. Within this formation it depends a lot on which player material is used in order to understand how this formation plays out on the pitch. However, with a striker like Gomez in attack, it is very obvious that a lot is based on getting this target striker into action, while defending compact.

·         Chances and risks of the individual tactics used against the respectively opponent

Generally speaking I favor a 4-2-3-1 formation over a 4-4-2 formation as the midfield offers one player more and allows dominating the midfield better. Freiburg faced those issues with the 4-4-2 formation in their recent games despite getting the better end out of most games, while Wolfsburg has actually shown decent defense stability in general in their formation. This defense stability was mostly cracked by own big individual mistakes which is not an issue of the tactical formation, but more the form, quality and mental part of the players used.

 

I expect a game in which Wolfsburg should have more ball possession, but in which I also expect a lot of wrong passes. Freiburg generally has low successful passing quote and Wolfsburg had more than 30 percent wrong passes against Leverkusen, who are similarly pressing intensively as Freiburg. In a game with regular wrong passes, there could be a lot of transition plays causing issues for either of the defenses and it then depends on the quality of the offense players to use those gaps. Freiburg has some amazing offensive players with Grifo and Philipp standing out, while Wolfsburg could get back Didavi after injury. Without Draxler they lose a similar type of player though and the wingers Kuba and Caliguiri might be solid, but far from creative and special players. In transition play Freiburg looks to have some advantage which with the home advantage can make the difference here.

In regards to goals total, I am leaning to the over side most times with Freiburg due to their weak passing, but quick transition and lower individual quality in defense. However, Wolfsburg despite maybe being a little better defensively in terms of individual quality, has some disadvantage in attack, especially as the wingers do not fully convince me yet.

As a result I favor Freiburg DNB rather than the over bet. The league table situation allows Freiburg to play this game with more passion, less pressure while Wolfsburg is in an awkward situation of points needed.

·         Influence of past or upcoming midweek games

Freiburg: No midweek game. International Break after this game.

Wolfsburg: No midweek game. International Break after this game.

·         Weather and Pitch Conditions

Excellent pitch in Freiburg with 7 degrees expected. It is likely to rain before the game. Around kick-off time there is only 20-26 percent rain risk expected.

·         General Club/Coach Situation

Freiburg: Freiburg very happy with the season so far despite the Cup out tend days ago. The side is very strong at home and the fans are loyal supporters. Coach is unquestioned here.

Wolfsburg: Wolfsburg really struggling to get it going this season. A lot of players have higher expectations to the league table position (Draxler, Rodriguez, Didavi, Gomez) and this a double dilemma for Wolfsburg, which is an attractive target for top notch players only when they are playing on International level. As a result the current situation is both leading to a lot of pressure to the club, but also leads to maybe influence current players in thinking about their next step instead of giving their all out here. The current search for a new coach is also a disaster as a lot of information is available in media and Wolfsburg got no’s only so far.

 

[Bundesliga > January 30th - February 1st]

Re: Bundesliga > January 30th - February 1st [h=3]Freiburg vs. Frankfurt[/h][h=4]Bet of the Week: Over 2.75 @1.90 (minimum 1.84)[/h] Current form based on past games Freiburg: Freiburg started well with their test games beating Mainz and Preussen Munster. However, in their game against Karlsruhe they lost big (0:5) and against Basel they did not stand a chance as well losing 2:0. The team had problems defensively which were similar to the ones they showed before the winter break, so that we can conclude that the team has yet to improve on this aspect. Frankfurt: Frankfurt remained with the trend of delivering high scoring games against teams that are also willing to attack frequently. Their recent games were 2:3 defeat vs. Hamburg (from 0:3 behind), 3:1 win vs. Al Ain and a 3:4 defeat vs. Servette in which they had huge chances throughout the game and had to score more. The trend is your friend and Frankfurt likes to stick to their offensive minded (risky) football.

• Expected line up and alternative options

Freiburg: Bürki (Mielitz) – Riether (Sorg) – Krmas (Torrejón) – Kempf (Höhn) – Günter – Klaus (Daehli) – Schuster (Höfler) – Darida – Schmid – Mehmedi – Petersen (Phillip/Guédé) Bürki should start the game as he recovered from muscle problems. Mielitz would be ready as a backup. Krmas is missing for 5 days with muscular problems and it seems like he has to be replaced by Torrejón, who lost the competition on this position against Krmas before the break. We are free to say Krmas missing is at least a small weakening. The team has similar problems with Kempf missing with muscular problems for the last 5 days as well. Höhn would replace him which is a definite weakening and with two possible changes on a vital position we would also add up an extra weakening. Frankfurt: Trapp – Chandler – Zambrano (Russ) – Anderson – Oczipka – Hasebe (Medojevic/Russ) – Aigner – Inui (Piazón/Kittel) – Stendera – Meier – Seferovic Hasebe and Inui came back from Asia Cup on 28th. Hasebe stated that both are ready to face Freiburg, but there is still a possibility that they might not be fully fit for the game. Trapp returns back in goal after his long injury and will surely be a boost when climbing up in terms of match fitness.

• Tactic and game plans of both teams

Freiburg: Freiburg is likely to play in a 4-4-2 formation on paper which is actually very flexible and changed to a 4-3-3 or 4-5-1 if needed. The team is using a mixture of wing play and counter attacking to create goal chances. In ball possession the team prefers short passing to go forward, but also likes to operate with longer balls when they face a lot of pressure on the ball owner They are also quite a physical and hard running team which is obviously due to the age of most of the players. The team is very young and athletic which is generally a nice quality to have. The mixture of young players and players with higher individual quality is getting better and the better. The midfield is playing very flexible going forward and makes it difficult for opponents to get into the tackles against the individual players. Frankfurt: Frankfurt is regularly switching the formation in midfield from a 4-2-3-1 to a formation of 4-1-2-1-2. The team has good passing qualities and a great balance with five players capable of scoring regularly and five players being primarily defensive minded. Frankfurt can defend deep in this formation to seek for counter, but also push up higher the pitch to win the ball earlier or at least cause long balls from the defenders in order to gain ball possession again. The team is generally rather offensive minded and likes to play attacking football as proven in all their games this season and also during their test games.

• Chances and risks of the individual tactics used against the respectively opponent

In this game Freiburg with a 4-2-2-2 faces Frankfurt with a 4-1-2-1-2 formation. Freiburg likes to play football and get into tackles physically and Frankfurt is not too different here. Frankfurt also likes to get forward by good passing and likes to think offensive in general. Both teams have some problems defensively due to the way they play (Frankfurt), but also because of individual mistakes (Freiburg). This allows us to expect a game in which a couple of chances should be created either way with Frankfurt having a small edge in terms of individual quality. In the first game between both teams Frankfurt won 1:0 with an efficient performance. Freiburg was capable of creating more chances throughout the game, but lacked good scoring abilities as in their recent friendly game (0:2 loss vs. Basel). Overall we believe that Freiburg will definitely be competitive in this game, but they have to find a way to use their chances. Frankfurt is always dangerous and efficient offensively, but also volatile in defense. Influence of past or upcoming midweek games Freiburg: No influence on the team. Frankfurt: No influence on the team. Weather and Pitch Conditions Around 1 degree expected in Freiburg with a 24 percent chance of rain. Throughout the morning some mixture of rain and snow will fall in Freiburg which could leave us with a wet, slippery pitch. The pitch is in average condition.

• General Club/Coach Situation

Freiburg: Good atmosphere in Freiburg who are excited because of two events. First is the game they are playing to open the new year against Frankfurt. The second event is the voting on Sunday whether the club will build a new stadium or not. For this occasion the team will run this game with a unique jersey. The jersey sponsor allowed the club to put “say yes” on the jersey instead their logo to underline their support for a new stadium. Frankfurt: Atmosphere in Frankfurt is average. Coach Schaaf has not been happy with the last test game and another event off the pitch made him very angry. Zambrano, Piazón and youngster Yaffa were partying after the test game. Youngster and new transfer Yaffa was even blamed to try and rape a young girl in the apartment of Zambrano which remains to be investigated. The club and coach were obviously not amused with both the party and the after events. A free day was cancelled and an additional training day added to underline the importance of the start into the 2^nd half of the season.

[Bundesliga > December 5th - 7th]

Re: Bundesliga > December 5th - 7th Hello Folks, after a couple of losers on the BOTW we hope that the variance turns back on the bright side on the BOTW again. It has been a pleasent season overall so far, so good luck all followers Rational Football Bet of the Week: Mönchengladbach -0.75 @1.94 (minimum 1.88) The Analysis can be found on our Website: Rational Football

[Bundesliga > November 28th - 30th]

Re: Bundesliga > November 28th - 30th Rational Football Bet of the Week: Hertha BSC vs. Bayern München over 3.25 @1.99 (minimum 1.88) For the Analysis please just visit our site: Rational Football

[Bundesliga > November 22nd & 23rd]

Re: Bundesliga > November 22nd & 23rd [h=3]Schalke 04 vs. VfL Wolfsburg[/h][h=3]Rational Football Bet of the Week: VfL Wolfsburg -0.25 @1.98 (min 1.88)[/h] Current form based on past games Schalke: Schalke was very weak in all their last three Bundesliga games including the CL game in Sporting. While they managed to steal a win against Augsburg, they were not dangerous and clever enough defensively to get anything out of their other games. The team struggles with injuries and new Coach Di Matteo obviously did not have the chance yet to make clear and necessary changes because the situation is not allowing him to do so. Wolfsburg: Wolfsburg is one of the red hot teams in Bundesliga winning 9 out of 10 games in their last games with one draw against Lille in which they were the better team too. The team found together and is doing a great job on the pitch.

• Expected line up and alternative options

Schalke: Fährmann – Uchida – Neustädter (Matip) – Höwedes – Fuchs – Kirchhoff (Neustädter) – Höger (Ayhan) – Obasi (Sam/Clemens) – Boateng (Meyer) – Moting – Huntelaar Fährmann had an infection but is back in training since 19^th. Matip joined the team again on 19^th after missing out one month. Obasi (shin injury problems) and Sam (muscle stiffness) are both doubtful for the game. If neither of the two can play Clemens will be likely to start here which is a below average solution for the position. Boateng is still not at his best fitness with an inflammation at his ankle and ongoing sprained ligaments problems. Max Meyer is a possible replacement if Boateng is not fit enough for the game. Kirchhoff had some injury problems ten days ago, but is not stated doubtful by the Coach. Höger and Ayhan are competing for a position in midfield. Fuchs has to play on the left back position because Aogo is suspended with a 5^th yellow card, while center back Santana is back in team training after his injury problems. Wolfsburg: Benaglio (Grün) – Jung (Träsch) – Naldo – Knoche – Rodriguez (Schäfer/Vierinha) – Guilavogui – Gustavo – Perisic – Hunt (Arnold/Caliguiri) – de Bruyne – Olic (Bendtner) Rodriguez is back in team training since 18^th while his backup Schäfer got back in team training on 20^th. If both players are not fit yet, Vierinha could come in to defend. Caliguiri is back in team training since 19^th and could run the full training allowing him to be at least back in the squad maybe.

• Tactic and game plans of both teams

Schalke: Schalke is expected to play in a 4-2-3-1 formation and is using the typical elements of this classical formation to try being successful. The full backs are expected to regularly join going forward while the offensive trio behind Huntelaar is expected to rotate a lot in order to create danger. Schalke likes to introduce attacks over the wings, but also tries to surpass defenses with footballing elements through the center. The current problems for the new Coach di Matteo are the injuries and the two International Games which did not allow the Coach to train consistently with a big group of players. Right now Schalke is trying to focus on improving their overall balance. The team has problems to get behind the ball fast when losing the ball and rarely manages to go forward in numbers. This can surely be linked to the several changes the Coach has to do due to injuries and which do not allow the team to grow a good balance and team chemistry on the pitch. Wolfsburg: Like most teams that operate in a 4-2-3-1 with two defensive midfielders, Wolfsburg is looking to get support from the full back positions to create goal chances over the wings. The team likes to have ball possession and focus on the wings to get into a lot of 1 on 1 situation. They improved recently in creating more chances in the game especially because of players like Perisic coming back and gaining form. Key players like de Bruyne have more space because guys like Perisic allow the team to be dangerous on several positions. This makes the team less predictable going forward which straight away helped the team to create more chances, score goals and win games. The team is also very dangerous on the breaks and they are capable of exploiting teams that lose the ball in midfield. Wolfsburg also proved to be quite dangerous on set pieces this season.

• Chances and risks of the individual tactics used against the respectively opponent

Schalke has got some decent results at home recently, but never really managed to convince with their football due to several reasons such as lack of fitness, lack of players and closely linked to that a lack of chemistry in the lineup. Both teams are going to operate in a 4-2-3-1 formation which requires harmony amongst the single team parts in order to get forward in numbers and in order to defend with stability. This is something Wolfsburg have steadily improved on in the recent weeks while Schalke is regularly struggling to prove both stability going forward and build up a strong defense As a result we expect Wolfsburg to have advantages for this game due to their fluent game, due to their available individual class and also due to all that Schalke has to work on as a team. Schalke will be focused to defend strong and try to create chances similar to the game against Augsburg at home where a long sprint by right back Uchida introduced a cross that Huntelaar used to score the game deciding goal. However, a goal in which two players are involved only clearly indicates the problems that Schalke has and football is all about likelihoods. We believe that Schalke will struggle at both ends due to the lack of balance and their main chance to win the game is only by defending perfect and using a few rare chances. Wolfsburg will and should look for a three pointer in this game. They have got the quality and the harmony to exploit little mistakes that will surely happen on the Schalke side. All they need to do is to not write a game where they are the better side and lose because of inefficiency on their side and efficiency on Schalke side.

• Influence of past or upcoming midweek games

Schalke: No influence on the team after a break with the International games. Wolfsburg: No influence on the team after a break with the International games.

• Weather and Pitch Conditions

Around 11 degrees expected in Schalke with no rain risk and no wind. The club changed the old pitch with a brand new one.

• General Club/Coach Situation

Schalke: Situation in Schalke is not perfect, but di Matteo has got some credit and the current aim is to “survive” in the best way until the winter break. The club and the coach expect most of the players to come back by that time and it will allow di Matteo to prepare the team in the way he believes they can be successful. Wolfsburg: Excellent atmosphere in Wolfsburg where the team and the coach are doing a great job recently. We from Rational Football met Nicklas Bendtner at the airport in Romania and had a short talk about the current situation. The player stated that the atmosphere is great and that the club believes that the season will be very successful after all.

[Bundesliga > November 7th - 9th]

Re: Bundesliga > November 7th - 9th Yeah Köln scoring three goals out of the box makes it hard to end the game with a win. Efficient performance by the guys who barely scored a goal in their last three games prior this one. Part football and the reason why we will never have a 100% winning hit rate :))

[Bundesliga > November 7th - 9th]

Re: Bundesliga > November 7th - 9th Small comment on the lineups: Bicakcic will be likely playing on center back position and Strobl can easily play the right back position as he has proven before.

[Bundesliga > November 7th - 9th]

Re: Bundesliga > November 7th - 9th 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Köln Rational Football Bet of the Week: Hoffenheim -0.5 @1.90 (minimum 1.82) Current form based on past games Hoffenheim: Hoffenheim showed a good form in the last games, but faced a better opponent with Gladbach in the last round losing their first game this season. The form is still good. Köln: Köln with three games in a row in which they have not created a lot of goal chances. While it was enough to beat Bremen and pass the Cup game on penalties, they received a 0:1 defeat at home which could also have been a 0:0. Those scores indicate the teams focus and problems very obviously. · Expected line up and alternative options Hoffenheim: Baumann - Rudy - Strobl (Bicakcic) - Süle - Beck - Schwegler - Polanski - Firmino - Volland (Zuber) - Elyounoussi - Modeste (Szalai/Schipplock) The great performances by Strobl and Süle do not allow Bicakcic to receive a chance to play again after his injury. There is a great competition on the center back positions which can only be positive. In offense Volland might start on the wing after his injury problems, but it is not safe yet. In attack Modeste is a little in front of Szalai and Schipplock. Köln: Horn - Brecko (Finne) - Mavraj - Wimmer - Hector - Lehmann - Vogt - Halfar (Nagasawa) - Olkowski - Svento (Halfar) - Zoller (Ujah) Due to the offensive problems because of the miss of Risse on the wings, it seems likely that Olkowski could be moved forward on the right wing. On the left wing Svento and Halfar are competing. If Halfar is preferred Nagasawa is an option in offensive midfield. · Tactic and game plans of both teams Hoffenheim: Hoffenheim is operating in a 4-2-3-1 with a flexible midfield. They use aggressive pressing as a measure to win the ball and then spread the ball around the pitch. By using the full width of the pitch they try to generate space going forward with their flexible offensive players. The team has shown a good balance defensively playing compact in many games and letting their opponents have more from the ball. They then try to win the ball when their opponents take risks by being unbalanced in midfield/defense to counter attack dangerously. With Elyounoussi and Volland they have quick scoring wingers who are fed with passes by Firmino, Schwegler and Polanski. In attack they have three similar options with Szalai, Modeste and Schipplock being box type of strikers. Modeste is probably the only one of trio to be also more active around the box and has his nose in front of his colleagues. Köln: Köln plays a 4-2-3-1 (4-5-1) that can certainly develop to a 4-3-3 when going forward. Generally they try to create chances with the usual weapons of a 4-2-3-1 formation. Full back support together with one of the defensive midfielders supporting. The flexible front three is supporting the striker. The main focus is obviously lying on a very strong defensive organization which is the basis for potential attacks. Köln proved in some games that they are also capable of going forward, but this part of their game is still limited to some extent due to the main focus on defending as visible in the recent games where Köln scored one goal in three games. · Chances and risks of the individual tactics used against the respectively opponent In this game Hoffenheim is the clear favorite and is also the side with the better individual skills. Both teams are operating in a 4-2-3-1 formation and both teams actually base their whole football on a good defensive balance. However Hoffenheim also manages to go forward regularly with their dangerous wingers and the steadily improving Firmino who is the key man in their offense. Köln will be looking to defend very compact and limit space as much as it is possible. However, we believe they will have a difficult time going forward with a similar approach as the last games. The more time passes the more Köln could find space on the breaks, but not being able to attack too much themselves will allow Hoffenheim to apply big pressure on Köln. Overall Hoffenheim has a great balance despite their recent 3:1 defeat and Köln does not indicate the necessary offensive power to create enough chances. · Influence of past or upcoming midweek games Hoffenheim: No influence for the team. Köln: No influence for the team. · Weather and Pitch Conditions Around 11 degrees expected in Hoffenheim with no rain risk and no wind. The pitch is in excellent condition. · General Club/Coach Situation Hoffenheim: Great atmosphere in Hoffenheim despite the first defeat in the last round. The club and the Coach are working very professional and the season has been great so far. Köln: Many Coaches say that after 10 rounds the table slowly starts to speak a clear language. Köln is sitting on 11^th position right now which is where the club wants to establish in their first season after promotion. They were surely not happy to lose against a direct rival competing against relegation last week, but the atmosphere is still good. Coach Stöger underlined that he did not understand the whistles of the fans because his team is not filled with established Bundesliga players and that it is not possible to always show wins as against Dortmund. These are clear and good words by the Coach who is backing his team.

[Bundesliga > October 31st - November 2nd]

Re: Bundesliga > October 31st - November 2nd VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg Rational Football Bet of the Week: VfL Wolfsburg DNB (0) @ 1.86 (minimum price 1.81) Current form based on past games Stuttgart: Stuttgart keeps their rollercoaster performances. Their recent comeback against Leverkusen from 0:3 to 3:3 followed a 4:5 away win with several lead changes. It is obvious that we cannot talk about stability when we talk about Stuttgart, but they certainly improved football wise and are capable of creating chances unlike at the start of the season. Wolfsburg: Wolfsburg with an amazing five out of five wins runs in their last five games. After a slow start the team surely got things running is and is in red hot form.

• Expected line up and alternative options

Stuttgart: Kirschbaum - Klein (Schwaab) - Schwaab (Niedermeier) - Rüdiger- Sakai (Klein) - Romeu - Gentner - Maxim - Sararer (Werner) - Kostic - Harnik Rüdiger might get back into the team as Armin Veh indicated in the press conference. Sararer, who was training in the second team, received a chance last week and performed pretty well. Veh stated that he has all the talent to play Bundesliga, but that talent only is not enough. The player reacted well in the second team and also used his first chance in Bundesliga in a good way. A lot speaks for him to start again, with youngster Werner being a good alternative. Wolfsburg: Benaglio - Jung - Naldo - Knoche - Schäfer - Guilavogui (Malanda) - Gustavo - de Bruyne - Perisic (Arnold) - Caliguiri (Vierinha) - Olic (Bas Dost) Wolfsburg is likely to bring back Jung on the right back position after Vierinha has covered the position in the last round in an offensive interpretation. In midfield Guilavogui might be rested due to small problems. Malanda could not fully impress recently, but is still the first name to replace Guilavogui here. In offense rotations are possible due to the intense schedule. Caliguiri and Perisic have to be rated better than Vierinha and Arnold here, so that a possible rotation could weaken the side a bit. Olic was rested in the Cup and is likely to start here.

• Tactic and game plans of both teams

Stuttgart: Stuttgart Coach Veh made a couple of changes that show first positive signs. The formation is changing steadily from a 4-2-3-1 to a 4-3-3 type of formation which in offense is very flexible due to versatile players being lined up. The team is trying to create chances mostly from the wings (two goals against Leverkusen by headers) and set pieces (one goal against Leverkusen from a corner). After a starting period where Stuttgart had clear footballing problems they now play way more offensive minded and create regular goal chances. The team has a quick offensive midfield which gets support by the full backs and the center midfielders. Especially Gentner tends to support the wings. The injury of Ibisevic allowed Harnik to play in attack which we believe is much better than fielding him on right midfield. He is a clear instinct player with rather weak dribbling abilities, but a good finishing no matter with what part of his body. Wolfsburg: Like most teams that operate in a 4-2-3-1 with two defensive midfielders, Wolfsburg is looking to get support from the full back positions to create goal chances over the wings. The team likes to have ball possession and focus on the wings to get into a lot of 1 on 1 situation. They improved recently in creating more chances in the game especially because of players like Perisic coming back and gaining form. Key players like de Bruyne and good options like Caliguiri also increased form to get danger on all three offensive midfield positions. This makes the team less predictable going forward which straight away helped the team to create more chances, score goals and win games.

• Chances and risks of the individual tactics used against the respectively opponent

In this game two teams are facing each other with the same formation 4-2-3-1. Stuttgart is interpreting the formation quick offensive recently. They hold five offensive minded players in offense and with the support of the fullbacks they are thinking offensive with up to seven players at some stage. Wolfsburg has a similar balance with five offensive minded players, while the 5^th guy (usually center midfield) is Gustavo and can certainly also play defensive minded first which allows us to say that Wolfsburg is a little more defensive minded first than Stuttgart. This is also highlighted in the goals conceded by both teams in the last rounds. Individually Wolfsburg has more quality, but we expect another crazy game where Stuttgart will try to push Wolfsburg hard and line up their defense high up the pitch to disturb Wolfsburg early on. Wolfsburg had can surely be troubled when a lot of pressure is applied on them. At the same time they hold big qualities going forward as well. Overall we expect an open game in which Stuttgart certainly looks offensive minded recently, while Wolfsburg will look to play a bit more balanced but also go forward dangerously with their big individual quality.

• Influence of past or upcoming midweek games

Stuttgart: There is no influence expected to Stuttgart as the team did not participate in the midweek Cup round. Wolfsburg: Wolfsburg participated in German DFB Cup on Wednesday. Rotations are possible.

• Weather and Pitch Conditions

Around 19 degrees expected in Stuttgart with no rain risk and no wind. The pitch is in good condition.

• General Club/Coach Situation

Stuttgart: Average atmosphere within the club which was again indicated by Veh during the press conference. He was asked if he is part of the decision making for the new sportive manager. He said that he thinks it would be a good idea to ask him which in other words means nothing else than he was not asked so far. The club is still searching for harmony on the management levels. We believe this will not affect the team, but the general club situation short to middle term. It is important that the club finds a philosophy on this position which also suits the Coach. Wolfsburg: Excellent atmosphere in Wolfsburg. With the recent results confidence in the team and the coaching squad is very high.

[Bundesliga > October 24th - 26th]

Re: Bundesliga > October 24th - 26th Mönchengladbach vs. Bayern Bet of the Week: Gladbach +1.25 @1.97 (minimum 1.88) Current form based on past games Gladbach: Gladbach is in a red hot form. They have a great squad with a lot of alternatives in offense to allow the Coach to rotate generally and use the players who are in best form and suiting best against their respective opponent. Bayern: Bayern is just amazing. Their recent 1:7 win away from home in Roma was just world class and indicated that Bayern made another step this season. • Expected line up and alternative options Gladbach: Sommer - Korb (Jantschke) - Jantschke (Dominguez) - Stranzl - Dominguez (Wendt) - Hahn (Johnson) - Kramer - Xhaka - Herrmann - Kruse - Raffael No injuries for Gladbach who have all the possibilities to form their best eleven. Bayern: Neuer - Boateng - Dante (Benatia) - Alaba - Rafinha - Lahm - Alonso - Ribery (Bernat) - Müller - Götze - Lewandowski Robben is very doubtful for this fixture. He could not be part of the final training and did also not join the team travelling to Gladbach. All signs indicate he will be out. It remains to be seen which personal Guardiola will use and it will surely have an influence which formation he prefers. Müller could replace Robben on the right side. Götze could move to the center position and Ribery who is very motivated to get back in the starting eleven could start on the left wing. It remains to be seen how Ribery can fit into the team. Against Roma he had a couple of situations where he lost the ball sloppy which can be dangerous against Gladbach. His offensive skills are not doubted of course. The team has proven to replace misses without problems, but we believe that Robben is possible one of the players the team will feel that he misses in the game. • Tactic and game plans of both teams Gladbach: Mönchengladbach is operating in a 4-4-2 which can easily turn out to be a 4-3-3 or 4-5-1 as well because either of the attackers can fall back from his attack position is necessary. The team tries to create chances with good passing and wing support, while their team is definitely build to be dangerous on the breaks. They have so much speed on the wings while their defensive midfield with Nordtveit and Xhaka is giving the team the necessary balance. Gladbach improved the general balance of the game. In their last game against Mainz they made the game, but also rarely allowed counter attacks which was one of their weaknesses in the past. They have also made some improvements being able to create chances against better defending teams. The team is also capable of bringing three one to one replacements from the bench to influence games by substitutions. Bayern: The team is capable of running both four at the back and three at the back in a strong manner. They used both formations (3-5-2, 4-4-2/4-2-3-1) in a fluent change during the whole season. The decision about the in this game depends on how Guardiola believes they can dominate the game without allowing Gladbach to counter attack dangerously. Generally, the team aims to have control of the game which implies ball possession. This aim is highlighted by the low number of goals Bayern conceded so far. The variability in midfield is very important to the Coach to keep creating chances from different situations and give defenders a difficult time to access each attacking player. The passing of the side is on a very strong level and unlike last season the team is looking to imply more direct passes going forward which allows them to turn ball possession into dangerous moments in attack. Coach Guardiola was praised highly by his players after their recent 1:7 away win. Robben said that it was the coach who prepared them very well for the game and showed how the strength of Roma can be neutralized without hurting their own game. • Chances and risks of the individual tactics used against the respectively opponent This game is rated one of the top games this season which surely is a high praise for the Gladbach side that has done very good in the recent weeks. They have a competitive squad with a lot of alternatives and play some good football. However they are facing one of the best teams in Europa right now with München. Gladbach added a good ball possession element in their game which allows them to also create chances against balanced defending teams. At the same time they improved great in terms switching to defense after losing balls or finishing attacks. In this game they will surely focus on their main specialty which is based on quick counter attacking because Bayern will have more possession. Bayern is expected to be the team trying to dominate the ball with experienced players such as Lahm and Alonso in midfield. Everything around is very flexible, steadily moving and hard to hold on to. So far Pep Guardiola always found a solution to allow his team playing in a way they do not allow their opponents to play out their strengths. There is no doubt that Gladbach can hurt Bayern if they get into dangerous counter attack situations. Players like Hahn, Traore, Herrmann, and Kruse are all quick paced and strong in finishing. As a result Bayern will have a couple of factors to take into consideration when losing the ball against Gladbach. On the other side Gladbach will face a big task themselves. Unlike other teams in the league Bayern is less predictable when going forward due to a very flexible midfield and attack. Gladbach will have a lot of work to defend in a disciplined way in order to not face similar problems like the recent Bayern opponents Roma (1:7) and Bremen (6:0). There is no doubt that Bayern is the favorite in this game with their world class coach and great squad. After Roma, where many people were saying that Roma can cause problems to Bayern, Gladbach is the next team where experts expect Bayern to have a “real task” to face. Against Roma Bayern allowed a couple of chances to Gervinho on the break which might give Gladbach some hope that they will receive some chances by counter attacking which they have to use efficiently to stand a chance against Bayern. Another key factor could be the miss of Robben who scored two goals and gave one assist against Roma exploiting both Ashley Cole and the general weak support for Cole. Robben missing takes away a clear scoring threat for Bayern and Bayern will also not face clear weak spots as they did in their recent games against Bremen and Roma. • Influence of past or upcoming midweek games Gladbach: Gladbach had a clear home win on Thursday at home in Europa League and could rotate a lot in attack. Players like Kramer were even rested so that we can be sure to see a fit Gladbach side in this game. Bayern: Bayern had enough time to recover for this game since their Tuesday CL game in Roma. No influence expected for the team. • Weather and Pitch Condition Around 12 degrees expected in Gladbach with no rain risk and no wind. The pitch is in good condition. • General Club/Coach Situation Gladbach: Great atmosphere in Gladbach where the team is currently able to run the balance between EL and the league. The management did a very good job of adding alternatives to the squad which is visible with the good results that are taken although rotation is applied. Bayern: Excellent atmosphere in München where the whole club is performing on a very high level this season. Manager Sammer is likely to extend his contract which is supported by Coach Pep Guardiola who indicated a very good relationship to the manager.

[Bundesliga > October 18th & 19th]

Re: Bundesliga > October 18th & 19th VfB Stuttgart vs. Bayer Leverkusen Bet of the Week: Over 2.75 @1.94 (minimum 1.85) Current form based on past games Stuttgart: Stuttgart has definitely got a shaky form. After a positive win at home against Hannover they gave away a 0:1 lead to lose 3:2 against Hertha. The team can certainly improve in form. Coach Veh stated that it is a very bad timing with the International break because he cannot work on making progress with the team. Leverkusen: After a strong firing start into the season Leverkusen is making smaller steps again in Bundesliga with two draws in a row against bottom table teams. The intensity of the schedule certainly influenced the team’s performance. Their form is pretty stable overall while the lack of using their chances is the reason for their draws and defeats.

• Expected line up and alternative options

Stuttgart: Kirschbaum - Klein - Schwaab - Rüdiger - Sakai (Rausch/Hlousek) - Romeu - Gruezo (Leitner) - Gentner - Maxim (Harnik) - Werner (Kostic) - Ibisevic Leitner and Kostic came back from their national teams with health problems and thus are doubtful. Gruezo came back very late from his NT and is also doubtful to start. Sakai also has long trips with his NT and is regularly struggling in the very next game with his club. Rausch and Hlousek (just came back from an injury, 90 minutes in a test game) are options to replace him. A fit Hlousek could certainly compete with a fit Sakai, while Rausch is a weakening when starting. Leverkusen: Leno - Jedvaj (Hilbert/Donati) - Toprak - Spahic (Jedvaj) - Wendell (Boenisch) - Bender - Reinartz (Castro) - Bellarabi (Öztünali) - Son (Brandt)- Calhanoglu - Kiessling There are a few question marks for Leverkusen due to the players returning from National Teams. Spahic, Son and Bellarabi are primary rotation factors. Castro is back in team training, but the Coach stated in the press conference that he has to see if it makes sense to let him play for this game or better way a few days (for CL) or a whole week for the next Bundesliga round. If he is fit enough, he could start for Reinartz. On the left back position Wendell and Boenisch are in competition. Drmic who came from Nürnberg after a strong season has quite a confidence low right now because he does not get as much time as he hoped so far. His performance in the NT was rather weak (subs. out at half time) and we believe he will be build up by the Coach slow but steady. Tactic and game plans of both teams Stuttgart: Stuttgart Coach Veh made a couple of changes that show first positive signs. The formation has been changed from a typical 4-2-3-1 to a 4-3-3 type of formation which in offense is very flexible due to versatile players being lined up. The left side is more active than the right one due to Sakai (left back) supporting offensive attacks regularly with good speed and no fear. This formation is clearly allowing Stuttgart to be more creative and unpredictable going forward. However, we like to note that this change still needs time for the team to adjust fully as seen in the win against Hannover and the defeat against Berlin. Leverkusen: Leverkusen plays in a 4-2-3-1 formation in which the whole midfield and striker Kiessling are pressing hard. Full backs additionally push forward strongly when pressing to create a very crowded midfield which is the fundamental piece of attacking after winning ball possession back. The balance is not perfect, but “only” good in our opinion when Bender and Reinartz play the defensive midfield. The team has 6 rather defensive specialized players and four offensive minded players, whilst if Castro replaces Reinartz they hold a good balance with five offensive and five defensive minded players.

• Chances and risks of the individual tactics used against the respectively opponent

Armin Veh wants to improve his team, but it is difficult for him because he was missing a lot of players over the course of the International games. They made some progress in creating goal chances, but they have a lot of areas in their game they still have to improve. Bayer Leverkusen has a clear idea of their football. They want to play offensive and they want to press their opponents to not allow them playing football. It does not come as a surprise that Armin Veh stated in the press conference that he believes Leverkusen will not wait and counter in Stuttgart. He expects them to play football and make the game. This will allow Stuttgart to approach the game defensively first and play counter attacking football. Leverkusen is the favorite in this game and they have the individual class to put pressure on Stuttgart who proved to make individual mistakes in most of their games. At the same time Leverkusen will have to fight against the risk their philosophy of playing football comes with. They open up one side of the pitch when pressing and create a lot of free space that Stuttgart can use if they get through the pressing line. Overall we believe that Leverkusen has a clearer idea of how they want to play football and despite their problems in terms their recent results they were always creating a lot of chances to come out and win their games. Stuttgart will look to make another step of improvement, but with Veh stating he could not really work with his team we see Leverkusen in an advantage position.

• Influence of past or upcoming midweek game

Stuttgart: No influence on the team. Leverkusen: Leverkusen will have a CL on Wednesday. Even though the game is important to them, we believe the focus will be strong on the Stuttgart game first.

• Possible influence of the Weather

Around 20 degrees expected in Stuttgart with 0% rain risk and low wind. No influence expected on the game.

• General Club/Coach Situation

Stuttgart: Coach Armin Veh was in a good mood in the press conference which is nothing new. Of course the team is under pressure with the lack of results so far and it remains to be seen if Coach Veh can use his long experience to hit the right buttons. An interesting note in the press conference was when a journalist asked him if he mentioned some of the key mistakes (sloppy created penalty) to his team and Armin Veh mentioned that he prefers these kinds of mistakes because they are so obvious and easy to solve. However, he added a small line saying of course if some mistakes happen over and over this is a clear sign of a lack of quality. We think it is worth to repeat that manager Bobic was sacked not long ago being criticized for his rather weak efforts to build a competitive squad. There are some indications that the quality in the Stuttgart team is not good on all positions. This has a clear impact on the way the Coach wants to play football with his team. He stated:” Of course I want to play spectacular offensive football too, but sometimes you got to see what player material you have and adjust. If I do not do that, I would be stupid.” Leverkusen: Good atmosphere in Leverkusen. No negative impacts here.

[Bundesliga > October 3rd - 5th]

Re: Bundesliga > October 3rd - 5th [h=3]Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz[/h][h=4]Bet of the Week: Borussia Mönchengladbach -0.5 @1.80 (minimum odds required 1.75). Lineups are already published and can be checked on our Twitter Account: RationalFb[/h] Current form based on past games Gladbach: Gladbach is still unbeaten in Bundesliga with three wins and three draws. The team has good options in midfield to rotate which assures that they get through the additional Europa League effort in a rather successful way. Mainz: Mainz with a great form so far this season. They are not as stable as Gladbach with two wins and four draws they are also unbeaten though. The new Coach and the team found together and the philosophy of the Coach is slowly getting into the teams DNA.

• Expected line up and alternative options

Gladbach: Sommer – Jantschke (Korb) – Stranzl – Dominguez (Jantschke) – Wendt – Herrmann – Kramer (Nordtveit) – Xhaka – Hahn (Johnson/Traore) – Kruse (Hazard) – Raffael (Hrgota) In defense Gladbach could do some rotations but there are no injury reports known to this point. In midfield Kramer could get back in midfield after recovering from his injury problems that did not allow him to start in the last EL game. Kruse is doubtful for the game after receiving a thigh knock and could be replaced by Hazard or Hrgota. Raffael was left out in the last game too due to small injury problems. Johnson who is an option on the wings is also doubtful for the game with injury problems. The status of Johnson, Raffael and Kramer who all trained on 4^th October will be decided on match day. The status of Kruse was not further mentioned by Favre. Mainz: Karius – Brosinski – Bungert – Bell – Diaz – Geis (Jara) – Baumgartlinger – Djuricic (Malli) – Allagui (Jairo) – Koo (Hofmann) – Okazaki (Djuricic) Okazaki is certainly important to the side with his goals and is quite unreplaceable so far. The Coach is happy that he returned to the team training and it is likely that he start. Geis, Hofmann and Parker are doubtful with an infection. Captain Noveski got another injury and will be out longer on the center back position. In offense Mainz can rotate a lot with several options and the status of the doubtful players will decide the final lineup.

• Tactic and game plans of both teams

Gladbach: Mönchengladbach is operating in a 4-4-2 which can easily turn out to be a 4-3-3 or 4-5-1 as well because either of the attackers can fall back from his attack position is necessary. The team tries to create chances with good passing and wing support, while their team is definitely build to be dangerous on the breaks. They have so much speed on the wings while their defensive midfield with Kramer and Xhaka is getting more and more experienced thus giving the team the necessary balance. Gladbach is facing regular problems in this formation allowing dangerous counter attacks when their passing gets sloppy. Against very deep defending teams Gladbach is usually holding more ball possession while having a more difficult time to create clear goal chances compared to their counter attack approach. However, they have also made some improvements in this department being able to create also chances against better defending teams. We like to underline though that they are going through a process in this part of their game and that they did not prove this consistently. Mainz: Mainz is expected to play in a 4-2-3-1 formation in which they use a pressing approach to win the ball and own possession close to the opponent’s goal. We like their balance prior this game with five defensive minded players and five rather offensive minded players. The team is slowly finding its first eleven which helps them to perform in a better flow as the last two wins have proven. They are creating chances from counter attacks, but also look to have more possession and create chances with variability/flexibility of their offensive players. In many of their games they were pretty patient which allows us to believe that they will certainly be capable of doing so as the away side.

• Chances and risks of the individual tactics used against the respectively opponent

Coach Favre whom we rate as a very good Coach underlined how dangerous Mainz is as a team. He says that Mainz is a good organized team which is flexible in midfield/attack. While as a home team Gladbach would be expected to be the favorite and be the fully active team, we do not expect to see this happening under Coach Favre. Unlike a team like Schalke Gladbach is rather likely to play good compact football in order to not run risks getting exploited by Mainz counter attacking. Mainz has proven to be patient and take rather low risks going forward when they realize their opponents wait to exploit them by counter attacking as has happened against Hoffenheim in their recent game. As you may see we have two teams that are led by two tactically high educated coaches who think long and deep about their strategies. Hjulmand also stated in the press conference that this game will not be easy because his team will be facing a Gladbach team that is covering a lot of ideas that he would ideally like to see his team to bring on the pitch too. Overall Gladbach has certainly the home advantage together with more experienced players together than Mainz. We also believe that individually Gladbach has slightly more qualities going forward and also a few more players being dangerous in front of goal by showing good finishing abilities. These factors might give Gladbach an edge in a game that will be interesting to watch from a tactical perspective with two teams trying to exploit each other’s mistakes with quick and dangerous offensive movements.

• Influence of past or upcoming midweek games

Gladbach: Gladbach had an intensive schedule with consecutive midweek games. As a result rotations are very likely and tiredness can partly be a negative factor to the side. Mainz: No influence on the team.

• Possible influence of the Weather

Sunny 17 degrees are expected in Gladbach with no rain and wind.

• General Club/Coach Situation

Gladbach: Good atmosphere in the team. We do not expect negative influences. The crowd will support the team which has been playing some entertaining and promising football especially at home (4:1 Schalke f.e.). Mainz: Mainz with a good atmosphere. There is no negative influence expected. The Coach wrote off the bad season start in the Cup and in EL in a great manner!

[Bundesliga > September 23rd & 24th]

Re: Bundesliga > September 23rd & 24th Rational Football Bet of the Week: Over 3 @2.01 (minimum 1.95) Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Augsburg Current form based on past games Leverkusen: In the last three games Leverkusen could not win and their strong start has come to a stop for the moment. The schedule is intense, so is their approach of playing football. A mixture of intensity and low efficiency in front of their opponent’s goal has resulted in the current streak. Their form has dropped a little due to injuries (Rolfes, Toprak) as well. Augsburg: Augsburg improved steadily ever since the season start and is now in a strong form. The team has a better flow and form right now. · Expected line up and alternative options Leverkusen: Leno – Jedvaj (Hilbert) – Reinartz (Jedvaj) – Spahic – Boenisch (Wendell) – Bellarabi (Calhanoglu) – Castro – Bender (Reinartz) – Son (Öztünali) – Calhanoglu (Drmic) – Kiessling Ömer Toprak is still missing. As Donati, who came in for Toprak, got a suspension in the last game and cannot participate against Augsburg, Reinartz is likely to give his debut on the center back position. This can be rated a weakening as Schmidt so far tried to find solutions to replace injured players without getting Reinartz involved. On the left back position Boenisch and Wendell compete for the left back position. In midfield, Bender might get a rest because he has been out quite long and the intense schedule is coming a bit too early for him. If he has to be replaced, Reinartz could come in for a one to one change but it would also come along with Hilbert moving in on the right back position and Jedvaj moving on the center back position. Son might get a starting appearance on the left wing, but Öztünali is competing strongly for the position. Drmic, whom we already mentioned last week to be a full alternative, proved his qualities with a goal against Wolfsburg. There is a chance he might replace Calhanoglu to give him a rest. Kiessling is expected back in the first eleven after being rested out in the last game. Augsburg: Hitz – Verhaegh – JIC – Klavan – Baba – Baier – Kohr – Altintop – Bobadilla – Werner – Mölders There is no injury report for Augsburg other than Reinhardt who is going to miss an estimated two weeks more. He is only a bench player for the side. There could be some rotations which we would rate as tactical. · Tactic and game plans of both teams Leverkusen: We keep this one short as Leverkusen has proven how they play. The formation is a 4-2-3-1 in which the whole midfield and striker Kiessling are pressing hard. Full backs additionally push forward strongly when pressing to create a very crowded midfield which is the fundamental piece of attacking after winning ball possession back. Recently Leverkusen faced some problems at the back, which in our opinion is now highlighted a lot because they wasted too many of their offensive chances. With Bender possibly missing, it remains to be seen which solution Roger Schmidt will find to assure a defensive balance on this position. Augsburg: Augsburg is operating in a 4-1-4-1, 4-3-3 type of formation. Their primary attributes are intense, pressing football from which they usually try to base their attacks on. With the likes of Bobadilla, Werner, Altintop and Mölders (Matavz) they have great scoring weapons that are supported by Baier and Kohr (Feulner), who build up the game and introduce attacks. The team has a great balance in our eyes and is willing to work hard. · Chances and risks of the individual tactics used against the respectively opponent Bayer Leverkusen is running through their first rough period with their Coach and their new system of playing football. While in most of their unsuccessful games they still had a lot of chances and could be the winning side, they had their first clear defeat against Wolfsburg which also was influenced by a red card. In this home game, they are now looking to get back on track and play the football they should in regard to their Coach. In some parts of the past games they went away from the pressing and aggressive football which indicates that the team is still in a progress of getting this type of football in their DNA. In the following game they are facing a strong, physical and offensively dangerous Augsburg side. Coach Schmidt says that Augsburg is describing what Bundesliga stands for and that they expect a very tough opponent. With two teams that are expected to try and give their opponents no time on the ball by pressing early we will very likely see a very intense back and forth game. Overall, we believe that Leverkusen will be the more active side at home and thus be on the ball more creating steady pressure while Augsburg will be trying to be passively active which means that they will be looking to go straight forward based on a balanced defense work. · Influence of past or upcoming midweek games Leverkusen: With three games in ten days Leverkusen will be more influenced by the intense schedule than their opponents. Augsburg: Augsburg had two games in the last ten days facing their third now. They will face the regular midweek game tiredness issues here with one or two rotations possible. · General Club/Coach Situation Leverkusen: After a euphoric and perfect start Leverkusen has hit reality again. The atmosphere is much focused. Augsburg: Great atmosphere in Augsburg who could seal two wins in a row. The team is finding together and Coach Weinzierl is proving his qualities as a Coach.

[Bundesliga > September 19th - 21st]

Re: Bundesliga > September 19th - 21st [h=3]Rational Football Bet of the Week VfL Wolfsburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen[/h][h=4]Betting Verdict: Over 3 @1.88 (minimum target 1.82)[/h] Current form based on past games Wolfsburg: Wolfsburg with only two points and a clear defeat in Everton in Europa League. The form of the team is far away from good as the potential of the team is not brought on the pitch. Leverkusen: Leverkusen started the season well with 7 points out of 9, but got a disappointing result in Monaco. They lost in a game where they had a lot of huge chances once again and Coach Schmidt stated they deserved even more than in the Bremen game (in which they wasted several opportunities after leading 1:0). The team is in a good form, creating more than a bunch of goal chances but is sloppy in using them all in the past two games.

• Expected line up and alternative options

Wolfsburg: Benaglio – Jung – Naldo – Knoche – Rodriguez – Malanda – Gustavo – Caliguiri (Vierinha) – Arnold – de Bruyne– Olic (Bendtner) Guilavogui is missing the game due to suspension which leads to Malanda and Gustavo starting on defensive midfield. In offense Arnold, de Bruyne and Olic are likely starters while Caliguiri and Vierinha are fighting for win position. Coach Hecking could use another (unlikely) solution if Bendtner starts in attack. Olic could move on the left wing and de Bruyne would cover the wing position instead of Caliguiri/Vierinha. Perisic is back in team training after his shoulder injury. He might be part of the squad. Leverkusen: Leno – Jedvaj (Donati) – Reinartz (Jedvaj) – Spahic – Boenisch (Borges) – Bellarabi – Castro – Bender – Son (Öztunali) – Calhanoglu – Kiessling Ömer Toprak will miss the game with muscular problems at his calf. Reinartz could have his first starting appearance under new coach Schmidt. Another option would be to move Jedvaj on the center back position which he covered in the last years too and bring in Donati on the right back position. Rolfes will still miss in midfield and will be replaced by Lars Bender who is a strong replacement and an expected starter when he stays without injuries. Borges Wendell is pushing from behind competing with Boenisch for the left back position. Due to the great start Boenisch has an advantage, but squad manager Jonas Boldt mentions that Wendell has a too big potential to not get chances again soon. Same goes for Drmic who came from Nürnberg after a strong season and who doesn’t get many minutes so far. He is suffering from a great term performance so far, but is surely going to get his minutes as well with the quality he has. Youngster Öztunali is can help the team straight away as well and has a big potential going forward. He puts pressure especially on Son.

• Tactic and game plans of both teams

Wolfsburg: Like most teams that operate in a 4-2-3-1 with two defensive midfielders, Wolfsburg is looking to get support from the full back positions to create goal chances over the wings. The only stats they lead against Bayern were the wrong pass statistics and cross statistics which indicates that Wolfsburg was more passive. They generally had issues to circulate the ball accurately (20%+ wrong passes). Last season Wolfsburg faced problems in games where they were expected to create chances and dominate the game. Because of the focus on the wings they get in a lot of 1 on 1 situation and they tend to create more chances by crosses or run overs then by good passing combinations. Against Frankfurt one of their goals resulted by a free kick and another one over the wings which indicates their focus on creating goal chances. Against Hoffenheim their only goal came from a cross to Olic who finished neat for the equalizer. In the game against Everton they struggled in their backward movement which was also visible in some of their Bundesliga games. Leverkusen: We keep this one short as Leverkusen has proven how they play. The formation is a 4-2-3-1 in which the whole midfield and striker Kiessling are pressing hard. Full backs additionally push forward strongly when pressing to create a very crowded midfield which is the fundamental piece of attacking after winning ball possession back. Recently Leverkusen faced some problems at the back, which in our opinion is now highlighted a lot because they wasted too many of their offensive chances.

• Chances and risks of the individual tactics used against the respectively opponent

Wolfsburg is under some pressure of needing results at home. We mentioned that they have problems in creating regular attacks in offense while keeping a good balance at the back. Everton could exploit Wolfsburg’s weakness in the backwards movement in a very strong way and it seems the game left impressions for some of the Wolfsburg players like de Bruyne, who was clearly frustrated about the tactical issues. Facing Leverkusen in this game is just what could move them in what they will call a very bad season start. Leverkusen is applying big pressure on opponents trying to win the ball and go forward quick. Picturing Leverkusen doing what they are specialized in against exactly the issue Wolfsburg has in the backward movement makes us believe that Wolfsburg will face some serious problems against Leverkusen. It was expected that Leverkusen will face setbacks throughout the season as we indicated before the game against Bremen. However, they keep performing good in terms of creating chances which is always one of the most important factors in football. To them it is only a matter of using their chances again to bank in results. Overall, we expect a game in which Wolfsburg will try to find the right balance between going forward and defending well, whilst Leverkusen will put the heat on with pressing and quick forward movements. We see some advantages in the way Leverkusen is playing and the key issues Wolfsburg has right now with their backwards movement. They have the players and the system to exploit Wolfsburg’s key weaknesses. At the same time Leverkusen is facing some changes at the back which is always sensible for a team that is playing as offensive and risky as they do. This should give even the offensively harmless Wolfsburg side some space to go forward and seek for their own chances, which given their bad start to the league they will have to be looking for.

• Influence of past or upcoming midweek games

Wolfsburg: Wolfsburg had an intense game on Thursday in England against Everton. The day after the team returned pretty disappointed, mainly focusing on regeneration training. We expect Wolfsburg to be slightly influenced from the game in terms of freshness. Leverkusen: Leverkusen had their important CL game on Tuesday which leaves them two more days to prepare for the fixture against Wolfsburg.

• General Club/Coach Situation

Wolfsburg: Wolfsburg took quite a blow early season with a weak Bundesliga start and a defeat in Europa League. Expectations in Wolfsburg are high, even for the players. De Bruyne stated in an interview that his Belgium mates at Everton told him that Wolfsburg was giving away way too much space going backwards which sharing in public comes along as a critique to the team mates. The team and the club is not satisfied with the status quo. Leverkusen: Still a good atmosphere in Leverkusen. Manager Schmidt takes the draw against Bremen and the defeat against Monaco pretty cool knowing that his team created a lot of chances which is vital to win games.

[Bundesliga > September 12th - 14th]

Re: Bundesliga > September 12th - 14th Rational Football Bet of the Week Bayern München vs. Stuttgart

• Current form based on past games

Bayern: It is pretty fair to say that Bayern is still struggling from the World Cup. A couple of injuries did not allow the team to establish a first eleven yet. However, the team was still able to pick up four points against two potential top 5 teams. Stuttgart: “If we do not grow together, we will face a similar season as last season fighting against relegation”, were the words of Coach Armin Veh after two games and only one point. His statement sums up the current form of the Stuttgart team and the early pressure that is created.

• Expected line up and alternative options

Bayern: Neuer – Lahm – Boateng– Dante (Badstuber) – Alaba – Alonso (Gaudino/Hojbjerg) – Rode (Gaudino/Hojbjerg) – Götze (Müller) – Müller (Robben) – Ribery (Shaqiri) – Lewandowski There are a lot of indications that Bayern will stick to a four in the back line. The possible formations vary from 4-2-3-1 to 4-3-3 to 4-1-4-1. All of them are pretty flexible and we could possibly see a lot of situations where we can see all these three line ups during the game. Alonso and Robben joined the team training on 11^th after some injury issues. Alonso could not do any intensive movements due to his ankle injury problems until then. Robben also had some ankle issues, but recovered too. On the 8^th Pepe Reina, Badstuber and Benatia joined the team training. All three are expected to be in the squad. Ribery made one game over 90 minutes in the last three months, but had a good 10 day period of training with almost no issues at his patella. It is expected that he might start if he does not have problems on match day, but he might not play the full game given his longer break. Lahm also had full 10 days periods to work on his personal fitness as he retired from the national team and can be expected to be in an improved shape. New transfer Benatia might be not in the squad. Coach Pep said:” He only trained twice with the team and needs a bit more time. He is not ready yet. I am sure he will help us sooner or later – I hope sooner.” Stuttgart: Ulreich – Klein – Rüdiger – Niedermeier (Schwaab) – Rausch (Sakai/Hlousek) Romeu – Gentner (Gruezo) – Maxim (Didavi/Leitner) – Harnik (Kostic/Werner) – Werner (Kostic/Maxim) – Ibisevic Armin Veh could go for some changes against Bayern München. Schwaab has muscular problems and Niedermeier who regarding to his coach improved steadily in form could replace him. On the left back position Sakai (NT game with Japan, weaknesses against Köln) could be replaced by Rausch who is pushing hard on starting. Hlousek is back in training for almost three weeks and could be in the squad as well. In midfield Veh can rotate a lot, but we want to state which changes seem likely. Didavi looks tired recently which Veh also confirmed in an interview with bild.de. Maxim, who played on the left wing, could move on his position. Coach Veh prefers to see Maxim on this position anyway. As a result, the left wing position could be covered by Kostic or Werner, who both come into this game with goals in their respective national teams. Against Bayern we expect box strikers to be dropped most of the time as team’s looks to counter attack more and prefer quick paced attackers. However, Veh seems to stick to Ibisevic in attack for this game.

• Tactic and game plans of both team

Bayern: No matter how exactly Bayern will be fielded, they will be looking to dominate midfield and allow themselves to be variable. The game plan with Pep Guardiola is well known and we believe that we do not have to dig too much into the key words “ball possession”, “midfield domination”, “flexibility”, “accuracy” and “hard work”. Against Schalke they could show these attributes for 30 minutes only which resulted in a fair draw at the end. They will aim to dominate the game more, pass more accurate to create chances and goals. Stuttgart: Stuttgart operating in a mixture of 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1 formation. The team uses support from the full backs. The midfield is crossed with passes in midfield, which regarding the coach are actually pretty decent. However, their current issue is the last third on the pitch. Their passing quality drops back in that part and they have a lot of room for improvement here. There are two reasons for a team to not play out chances offensively. One is weak or late passing and another is a lack of movement of the team. With a couple of players not in best shape (Didavi, Werner, Harnik) and new players in midfield (Kostic, Gruezo, Romeu this is a logical issue for Stuttgart. They have to work hard and repetitively on this issue as Coach Veh also mentioned in the press conference.

• Chances and risks of the individual tactics used against the respectively opponent

The roles in this game are clearly defined. Bayern is going to make the game and play offensively. Stuttgart on the other hand will fight back with physical football, try to be compact and search their goal chances with counter attacks and set pieces. If Stuttgart can keep a good passing in midfield, they could lower the general offensive pressure of Bayern. However, as mentioned earlier, they have to improve their passing in the final third in order to cause some decent danger to the Bayern goal. If they cannot get their passing together offensively, which is a process that takes certain time, they will not be able to get rid from some of the pressure Bayern München will apply. We expect Stuttgart to struggle going forward because of their weak passing in the final third. As a result Bayern should dominate the game in a very strong manner with a very experienced team and options from the bench depending on who starts. In the case of our expected line up Robben and Shaqiri could come in the second half which is pure quality and goal scoring threat against a team that will probably be already tired from all the defending. This could be a key factor if you consider betting Bayern on the high handicaps.

• Influence of past or upcoming midweek games

Bayern:B ayern has a very important Champions’ League group game against Manchester City at home on Wednesday. Pep Guardiola stated how important the first game in the group stage is and that a win gives a lot of room for confidence. This game could play a role in Pep Guardiola’s mind. To figure out which players might be rested, or actually used to get some match fitness for the next game is very complex and it depends on how Pep’s rough plan for the City game looks like. Bayern will still look for an eleven that is capable of winning against Stuttgart and we do not expect to see any lack of motivation for this game. Stuttgart: No Influence

• General Club/Coach Situation

Bayern: Good atmosphere in the club ahead of the very important next month. A good start in UCL and Bundesliga could allow all players to slowly get back in the team and give Bayern even more quality going forward in the season. Stuttgart: There is some kind of early pressure on Armin Veh who looked very relaxed in the press conference ahead of the Bayern match. On the question “How did you manage to improve your team in the last 14 days?”, Armin Veh could only laugh as most of his players were away for International Duties. He is experienced enough to buy him some more time, but a couple of more bad results could bring a lot of pressure to the club, the team and the coach. Betting Verdict: Bayern München -2.25 at a price of 1.99. The minimum price we want is 1.88.

[Bundesliga > August 29th - 31st]

Re: Bundesliga > August 29th - 31st As we like the level of input and want to add a few of our ideas about the Freiburg game, we are going to share one more game Analysis for free on here. Check out Rational Football for free offers and for our paid packages if you want to receive high quality and in depth analysis for very affordable prices per game. Freiburg vs. Mönchengladbach

• Current form based on past games

Freiburg: Even tough Freiburg lost their first Bundesliga game against Frankfurt, they did look quite in form with some chances that made us conclude that a draw would have been deserved in their first game. Mönchengladbach: Gladbach got what they called a very important point in their home game against Stuttgart with a late equalizer. During the week they humiliated Sarajevo 7:0 at home (2:3 away) to gain further confidence.

• Expected line up and alternative options

Freiburg: Bürki - Sorg - Kempf - Krmas (Mitrovic) - Günter - Klaus - Schuster - Darida - Schmid - Mehmedi - Frantz (Phillip) Mujdza (right back) is rated fit and is an alternative on the bench. Last week starter Guede is suspended for two games by DFB for a violent conduct and is likely to be replaced by Frantz or Phillip. New transfer Mitrovic is described as a good player by the club, but they also underline that he needs some time to adapt to the football Freiburg wants to play. Schahin (on loan from Mainz) and Torrejon (Kaiserslautern ***8211; Diagne replacement) joined the team this week and could already be in the squad. Mönchengladbach: Sommer - Korb - Stranzl - Jantschke - Dominguez (Wendt) - Hahn (Johnson) - Kramer (Nordtveidt) - Xhaka - Traore (Herrmann) - Raffael - Hrgota (Hazard/Kruse) Gladbach with a couple of options for the starting eleven and possible changes should be rated as tactical ones. Favre will try to field a fit starting eleven and thus rotation is possible due to the midweek fixture.

• Tactic and game plans of both teams

Freiburg: Freiburg is likely to play in a 4-4-2 formation on paper which is actually very flexible and changed to a 4-3-3 or 4-5-1 if needed. The team is using a mixture of wing play and counter attacking to create goal chances. They are also quite a physical team which likes to get in one vs. one situation to not allow their opponents to play nice football and create chances. Mönchengladbach: Mönchengladbach is operating in a 4-4-2 which can easily turn out to be a 4-3-3 or 4-5-1 as well because Raffael can fall back from his attack position is necessary. The team tries to create chances with good passing and wing support, while their team is definitely build to be dangerous on the breaks.

• Chances and risks of the individual tactics used against the respectively opponent

Freiburg played a decent game against Frankfurt, but clearly lacked penetration power on the front end. They have to improve this in order to hurt Gladbach. Gladbach to us is a team with great potential in midfield and attack. They have a wide squad with several good options on bench to adjust their line-up based on their opponent and also throw in solutions throughout the game. However, in all of their games they were coping bad with big pressure on their midfield or defense and regularly gave away chances or potential situations in a sloppy manner. With Freiburg being a pressing side offensively, Gladbach always had problems in the past. They faced dangerous attacks when losing the ball going forward and rarely accepted the 90 minutes intense physical game of Freiburg. In this game we also expect Freiburg to play intense and try to do not allow Gladbach to get in a flow with their strong and paced individual players. Gladbach remains in a position where they have to prove that they are capable of accepting the intense games and finding solutions to create chances without facing pressure on their own defense in the course of 90 minutes too often. Overall Gladbach has the better individual class and also depth on bench. Freiburg will try to compensate this with hard, intense work and they also have a couple of players that are strong individually. If Gladbach can cope with the dirty game after a comfortable 7:0 win in EL they have what it takes to win the game, but Freiburg will test their capacity of bringing more than hundred percent on the pitch!

• Influence of past or upcoming midweek games

Freiburg: No Influence Mönchengladbach: Gladbach did play Europa League at home on Thursday. The game was pretty much one way with a clear 7:0 win, but it might lead to Favre rotating his starting eleven a bit. We do not expect a huge weakening effect from this midweek fixture though. General Club/Coach Situation Freiburg: Freiburg is fully focused and coach Streich has full support of the club. Fans will support their team and the coach knowing how much they do from their limited financial means. Mönchengladbach: Gladbach is in a good atmosphere. Coach Favre looked a bit annoyed about the defending part in the 7:0 game, because his team gave away chances and situations in a sloppy way too often. This Analysis was created by Rational Football and must not be used or disclosed, or permitted to any third party to use or disclose, the Material in any manner at any time.

[Bundesliga > August 29th - 31st]

Re: Bundesliga > August 29th - 31st What a crazy game. I was travelling and could not see more than the live score which drove me nuts several times. Looking forward to the highlights. Hope we could convince some guys to follow us and win all together. :ok

[Rational Football Season Previews]

Re: Rational Football Season Previews

Looks like your Paderborn's analysis started to deliver! :ok I understood frokm your preview that they could be another Hoffenheim, surprise in the beginning, then after a couple of months other teams understand their strategy so they lose the edge, and then next summer half of the players leave them for more sound teams, and they delve into average...

We were specially proud about our Paderborn analysis. It is worth to look deeper into things and we are happy to share some part of our knowledge with the community so that everyone can profit. We work hard and we are happy if you guys are happy.

[Bundesliga > August 29th - 31st]

Re: Bundesliga > August 29th - 31st Leverkusen vs. Hertha Berlin · Current form based on past games Leverkusen: Probably the best in form team right now in German Bundesliga. Leverkusen ran over their Cup opponents, beat Copenhagen twice in CL qualification and beat Dortmund away from home in an impressive way. The team is in a hot form and full of confidence. Hertha: Hertha played pretty decent football against Werder Bremen and the face of coach Luhukay at the end of the game did show how shocked the squad, fans and the players were to give away a confident 2:0 lead. Two pretty random goals did not allow Hertha to win the game and they were also not capable of pushing late in the game for a deserved third goal. This indicated that Hertha is currently not fully able to push their best level and pressure over 90 minutes. This information might be vital for the game against Leverkusen, but more about it later. · Expected line up and alternative options Leverkusen: Leno – Jedvaj – Toprak (Papadopolous) – Spahic – Boenisch (Wendell) – Bellarabi – Castro – Rolfes (Reinartz) – Son (Brandt) – Calhanoglu – Kiessling (Drmic) Only Ömer Toprak is doubtful with back problems and Papadopolous is waiting to replace him. Obviously Leverkusen plays an intensive football and might rotate from time to time. All possible rotations are named in brackets. Kiessling not starting would surprise us and we see him being replaced by Drmic as the only rotation that would have a great weakening effect. Son being replaced by Brandt would be a small weakening while Reinartz, Wendell and Papadopolous are no weaker replacements in our eyes. Hertha: Kraft (injury problems – Jarstein) – Pekarik – Brooks – Heitinga – Plattenhardt – Beerens – Hosogai – Niemeyer (Hegeler) - Schulz – Allagui (Ben-Hatira/Mukhtar) - Schieber Hertha is struggling hard with injuries right now. Baumjohann, Cigerci and goalkeeper talent Gersbeck were already missing for the first game. On top of that playmaker Ronny, center back Langkamp and left winger Haraguchi got injured and are out for this game. Goalkeeper Kraft who could not convince in the last game and played a weak role in the conceded goals is doubtful with injury problems as well. We do not see this as a big weakening given his current form, but it would come along with another change in the team and the overall team harmony could be further influenced negatively. · Tactic and game plans of both teams Leverkusen: We keep this one short as Leverkusen has proven how they play. The formation is a 4-2-3-1 in which the whole midfield and striker Kiessling are pressing hard. Full backs additionally push forward strongly when pressing to create a very crowded midfield which is the fundamental piece of attacking after winning ball possession back. Hertha: It is tricky to talk about a certain tactic for Hertha in this game due to the huge amount of injuries. Luhukay is known to shuffle things if he doesn’t feel like the new situation is going to be solved by playing the same way as before. We expect Hertha to focus on defense strongly as midfield/offensive harmony is weakened and seek their opportunities from time to time. · Chances and risks of the individual tactics used against the respectively opponent Leverkusen is expected to play their quick paced, creative and hard pressing football while Hertha will have to find a structure with a new puzzled offense and also compensate an injury on the center back position. We believe that Hertha will have great problems against a team that is this much in shape. Dortmund was facing Leverkusen in a similar setup with couple of injuries and did not manage to play fluent football. More importantly, they were also not able to defend the fluent and accurate football by Leverkusen. Chances seem quite low for Hertha to defend this flexible Leverkusen team over 90 minutes and find regular big enough chances to score themselves. · Influence of past or upcoming midweek games Leverkusen: No Influence Hertha: No Influence · General Club/Coach Situation Leverkusen: Red hot team that is full of confidence. The club is working professionally and the team is following the coach blind. There will come a stage in the season were Leverkusen will struggle with their football and pressure, but right now we do not see this team backing down at all. Hertha: With a couple of key injuries and a 2:2 “defeat” against Bremen in their first home games the atmosphere in Berlin is not perfect, but it is also far away from a crisis. Hertha is going into this game with a normal, slightly stressed atmosphere. Rational Football Betting Verdict We are betting Leverkusen on the Asian Handicaps in this game. The line is -1.25 and the minimum price we want is 1.92.

[Bundesliga > August 29th - 31st]

Re: Bundesliga > August 29th - 31st Dortmund might improve quite a lot when Ramos is back in the team. He is certainly back in the squad and compared to Immobilie he suits better in the 4-1-2-1-2 formation that Klopp prefers so far. Keep in mind that Augsburg is also running through a process of finding their balance with key players leaving them, an important injury and new players to integrate in the team. They live from their team spirit and hard work last season. On top of that they had a couple of players being on a very great form jumping in individual quality and reliability. They need time to get back to this level and they need to, because their overall quality is not perfect.

[Rational Football Season Previews]

Re: Rational Football Season Previews “Bet of the Week”: E-mail “free bet” to [email protected] We offer professional Analysis and Betting Products, but we are aware that any investment requires trust. Rational Football decided to offer you what we believe is a step towards potential customers. We are going to publish the bet of the week for each round with an analysis in order to make you familiar with our product. Rational Football aims to deliver its service to individuals that will understand key words such as variance, risk management, money management, value betting and patience. Until the winter break we will publish 16 bets (one each round). Based on such a small sample size we might as well end up in the red, but we are willing to run this risk because we believe that our customers are intelligent individuals that will be able to spot our thinking process and understand that we can beat the market over the course of a full season based on all bets. Punterslounge Special: As I personally have a long history at Punterslounge, I will also make sure that the Free Bet of the Week will be posted in here!

[Rational Football Season Previews]

Re: Rational Football Season Previews Check out our Blog Post about why Leverkusen beat Dortmund 0:2 away from home. We hope you enjoy the read!

[Rational Football Season Previews]

Re: Rational Football Season Previews [h=3]SC Paderborn[/h] Rational Football had to use the good network of contacts in order to deliver the following preview. We thank all our contacts that were available for interviews. Without them a promoted team is regularly tough to analyze for us due to our strong focus on German Bundesliga 1. Pader… what? Everyone who is interested in Bundesliga 1 and other main competitions probably has only heard about Paderborn, but would not be able to say a lot about them. We want to change this and hope you enjoy the following read! A budget of 6.2 million Euro, a record low budget for a promoting team in 2^nd Bundesliga, was enough for Paderborn to seal the promotion last season and with a budget of around 14 to 15 million Euro they are heading the Bundesliga start as the team with the lowest budget available. These simple facts alone underline the big Underdog status that Paderborn faces this season. But there is a lot more development behind the scenes than one might see at first. Paderborn and Dortmund – More than a good contact? Dortmund CEO Hans-Joachim Watzke grew up and lived in the Paderborn area (Erlinghausen). He studied in Paderborn and not long ago he headed back to his university to hold a presentation himself. Watzke is also a regular visitor in the Benteler Arena and keeps a good friendship with Paderborn president Finke. As a result, it is not surprising that a lot of former Dortmund II players are seen in the Paderborn squad. Rational Football could not find any reports about this good relationship and trend in media which seems surprising to us. However, there are more similarities between Paderborn than only good business contacts to Dortmund. Rational Football Statement: Rational Concepts By Paderborn! We have seen many teams promoted and many teams relegated. Based on the budget issues, teams regularly have to ask themselves “shall we change our team and add experienced 1. Bundesliga players that are average at best for other teams?” or “do we keep our team together and add only individuals that suit to our way of playing?” First of all, Paderborn obviously has a concept in the club. Starting with Andre Schubert and especially with Roger Schmidt (now coaching Leverkusen) they changed their approach of experienced old players to young, dynamic players that can be developed. If we look careful into how Dortmund approached their change with Watzke and Klopp, also with a limited budget after almost going bankrupt, we can see that there is a parallel between both clubs. Having said this, it is not surprising that Paderborn president said that in two to three years after the introduction of Coach Stephan Schmidt (2012), they aim the promotion to Bundesliga 1. Furthermore, Paderborn is using the promotion to invest in their infrastructure which shows that they are looking into the future rather than looking to only survive the daily Bundesliga business. A new training center is expected to be built from January onwards and after that they plan to build a youth training center around next summer. Low Budget – Big Balls Based on our research, we believe that in the case of Paderborn, it is not right to be blind about the small budget they have available. Of course Paderborn will come across all the problems that a young team will necessarily face, such as inconstant form and individual mistakes based on a lack of experience. But after all, Rational Football believes that this choice will also come across with a lot of chances for the coach and the team. Young talented players have a fast learning curve. In Germany they are known for good athletic attributes, but also tactical attributes which used together and in a team can create a team that is hard to beat. SC Paderborn – The Squad Last season Paderborn did change the whole coach team and half the squad. Despite this change the coaching squad was able to promote with the team and going into the Bundesliga 1 Season there is not a lot of changes done. In defense, Paderborn did not change anything. The experienced defensive midfielder and captain Krösche, who had a big influence in the teams with his words, retired this year after not playing a lot in the second half of the promotion season. His loss might weight in terms of team harmony only. Experienced goalkeeper Kruse who helps the defense row to position correct and former Dortmund player Hünemeier (captain) are the next two players who are expected to take over the role of leading the team in the dressing room. SC Paderborn – Formation, Key Players, Regulars, Expected Line up and Tactics This information is a vital part of our Analysis Product. Visit us here to buy our Analysis for the upcoming Paderborn games!