1907zico
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Posts posted by 1907zico
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Re: Poland First League June 1st 2010 Unlucky Hobbit, did trail you but they seem to be not much interested in winning today :\
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Re: Norway Tippeliga 24-25 May Good job Jenspm :ok
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest
Pure value :lol:lol Good that Germany, who pay most of the organization, "win". :pukeUnited Kingdom favourties with Betfair to finish last at 2.16. Greece are at 80s. -
Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) There are always different ways to make long-term profit. :ok You can also hold a good long-term profit if you keep a high hit-rate without regarding the prices. If your confident a pick will win then you should take it. However, it then would be a difficult job to be a) so well informed that you know which pick contains a high hit rate and b) find a consistent way of gathering and bale information in the right way. If you go for value, your system/estimations will highlight the picks you should take. If you go for high hit rate you will need the same and it somewhat should be not based or influenced from the odds given by the bookies.
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Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Well in my opinion this approach is fine, but it is difficult to get your own odds right in the long-term. You include many subjective aspects such as form, injuries, motivation etc. You can over-/underrate many things this way. In my opinion, if your specialized on one league you will get the flow - knowing which teams will most likely win and being able to see if the odds represented are at least fair. High hit rate and the right prices are vital. Of course it is a good basis to start with some estimations, but to do the estimations right the vital work is to know the league, the teams, the players to be able to rate the information better than the bookies - in the long term. ;)
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Re: UEFA Champions League Final > 22nd May I think small things made the difference. Bayern had a few chances and Inter had not really much more chances. Of course it looks much more dangerous when Inter counter attacks on huge space, than Bayern who hold around 70% ball posession in a CL final with so many young guys and have to create chances with small place. Quite glad I took that bet, if Müller did score the chance as Milito scored his goals it would have been very interesting indeed, but this way the fans - the neutral guys - just everyone got the impression that it is not Bayern's day but Inter Milan's. 1999 Bayern lost the final, two years later they got it. 2010 Bayern lost the final and hopefully in 2012, when the final is in München they can do it again. Ribery's contract extented to 2015 is a very good sign. Inter won league, cup, CL - lost coach. Bayern won leagues, cup, lost CL - still has their coach and much younger squad. The future is ours :ok
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Re: UEFA Champions League Final > 22nd May Great match by Inter, small things make the difference in such a final. Milito did, Müller could not. A 1:1 would have been very neat just after halftime but there are days where the ball just dont want to go in. Well done both, fantastic season for both - fantastic match imo as well :clap:clap
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Re: UEFA Champions League Final > 22nd May Oh jesus. We saw what happened when they try to play football. 2 vs 4 situation and Inter supporters shivering. After that situation they did adapt their tactic instantly (first 5 minutes in Bayern half, then total different display). Bad positioning by Badstuber/Demicheles and a goal, hence I am still optimistic Chivu gonna have some more problems.
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Re: UEFA Champions League Final > 22nd May Surprise Surprise :loon
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Re: 1X2 laying Very sweet run, keep it going! :ok
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Re: UEFA Champions League Final > 22nd May
At least someone who is on Inter knowing both sides of the coin. Bayern players did underline that Inter is not only about defense and that they are very dangerous in offense as well, so I think they are aware of it. Good luck all, getting excited already :loonValue is a very subjective thing and I can understand the view that says Bayern represent it here' date= but for me getting 11/8 on a Mourinho side in a one-off cup final is pretty tasty. There's a misconception that Jose's sides are always defensive. In fact, he's tended to play an attacking 4-2-3-1 with Inter for most of this season and their most impressive results in the CL have come from attacking displays (both legs againstChelsea Milan -
Re: UEFA Champions League Final > 22nd May
Makes sense this bet, though Bayern is not that effective trough corners and we should also consider that both wing players Robben and Hamit are playing on the wrong side if it goes for crosses. Robben left foot plays right midfield and Hamit right foot plays left midfield. Though Lahm (right foot) does assist Robben, but in general you can see that Olic and Müller are not thaaat dangerous for crosses. Only when it comes to base-line crosses there will be corners (usually on first post where Olic/Müller try to get the ball in). It will be difficult to get base-line crosses trough against Inter I guess... Hence, the bet still looks good since I do not expect many/any corners for Inter as well :okBayern Munich - 1 Corner Handicap @ 2.10 - BET365. I see this as being the bet of the tie. German teams, Bayern included are more prone to using wing play, hence their propensity for winning high amount of corners. Inter average 4.7 corners at home, and 4.9 away, while Bayern average 7.3 corners at home, and 5.5 away. I feel there is a huge difference between these two sides, in terms of ability at winning corners. Bayer have beaten a minus one corner handicap in every match, home and away, in each knockout round so far. Versus Fiorentina, United, and Lyon. Inter lost a minus one corner handicap against Chelsea and Barcelona, home and away. They only beat a plus one corner handicap at home to CSKA Moscow. -
Re: UEFA Champions League Final > 22nd May Esteban Cambiasso: I don't agree with "those bookmakers" - we are no favourite in my eyes it is 50/50. Both teams won two titles in their domestic competitions. Both are same motivated, it could not went better for both teams and I think both teams are in exactly the same situation.
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Re: UEFA Champions League Final > 22nd May
Zico - how do you think Bayern will line-up against Inter. Will it be three up front? If so' date=' which three?[/quote'] Bayern never play with three up front :unsure On paper they are not as offensive as they are in game which is a result of their steady moving and position changing/running in the gaps. We will see Olic as single striker, just behind him Müller who will be the key player in my eyes for Bayern. All speak about Robben, Ribery - some about Olic. Bayern is not only Robbery and Olic. Schweinsteiger improved so much, people rate Ballack high, I see Schweinsteiger better than Ballack this season. Average over 110 ball contacts per match, it was 150 ball contacts or more in a match in Bundesliga which was record. Van Gaal was the first coach using him on defensive midfield together with Bommel and he is the own who can slow down the match, can hold the ball and he is always ready for anyone to pass at him. To come back to Müller. Came from youth team. 20 Years old. Did play 34 matches, 13 goals and 11 assists. Okay it is Robben/Ribery which is Bayern all about. Sure that. He did play left midfield, right midfield, as striker and behind the only striker. He knows to run in the gaps, when to run in the gaps and he has the class to score goals. Back to the lineup... ------------Olic---------------------- ---------------Müller----------------- Hamit ------------------------- Robben ------Schweinsteiger - Bommel -------- Badstuber - Demicheles - Buyten --- Lahm --------------Butt---------------------- Olic - can cause trouble always, runs like a horse and does score important, easy goals. Müller - Young, not scared and he knows where to run, where to pass. Usually getting the space he needs since all, even opponents underrate him. Robben - Robben is usually doubled, but he has enough options. Lahm does in most of the cases assist him with a run on his right side, so Robben can either dribble in the center and shot or pass Lahm OR pass into the center to Müller or Olic. The question is not how to stop Robben, it is how to stop ALL THREE POSSIBLITIES. This is simply not possible, it will be just up to Bayern using any of those three possiblities (Lahm -> cross, Robben dribbling -> shot, pass to Müller/Olic who pass each other in the gap). Hamit Altintop did play very nice when Ribery missed in Lyon. He can dribble in the center and shot with his good right foot. Also is more defensive than RIbery which will give more security for counter attacks. It is expected that he will create a three man defensive midfield when Inter owns the ball (together with Schweinsteiger/Bommel), while Robben usually builds the second offensive player with either Olic/Muller (one of them run back/press the ball owner - usually Olic). Schweinsteiger/Bommel. Not much to say, tackling stats, ball possession stats, correct pass stats are all so damn good. Both are leaders and organize their team, both heavily underrated by European followers. Badstuber or Contento on left back. Badstuber is the more defensive guy (usually center back) and does not tend to participate in offense that much. In tackles and under pressure he is ice cold and his passes to his colleagues are usually finding their address. Contento is more agil, more athletic guy and he does not fear to take part in offense as well. Best scene was when he did shout at Ribery (he comes from youth team, first season, first match) because he did not help in defensive work. He is confident as well. Demicheles, on a good day can reach world class level. I know he had many problems but that was a result of last chaotic season where they did concede shit load of goals (will influence any defender - such a bad season). On top of that Van Gaal did not like him that much at first, plus additionally as only Argentinian guy he did not feel very good in München in terms of friends&family&atmosphere. Hence, the more time past - the more solid he got although he did do mistakes against Manchester. Against Lyon he was able to show one of his best matches where he did not accept any offensive attempts from Lyon. Buyten, was brought from Hamburg, sit on bench and it was a new situation for him as well. This season, is the first one where he feels that the coach does trust him and he does pay it back. Dangerous on set pieces and with very good body strength. Only negative side is that he is not very agil due to his body build. Lahm, was wanted by several big clubs, including Barcelona. He is never tired to do another run on Robben's side even though he knows in most cases the ball will go to the center position. Defensively he has more advantages when playing on the right side. Butt, old but experienced. Finally with his first title, you just have to go to Bayern to win those eh? He is solid, very solid these days. I mean Bayern has such a bad defense (don't agree myself - I see it as a process to improve them from last bad season) but had the lowest number of conceded goals in Bundesliga and did play the half final of Champions League without conceding any goal in two legs. They also finished off Bremen 0:4 in the German Cup final, who did score like 3 goals or sth against Atletico? (who beat Barca or was it Sevilla?) If there is a reason why Inter is favorite, then it is because German media tends to underrate their own class. It is the same for World Cups, it is the same for any European competitions where German teams are involved. They say others are favorites, they are the under dogs in last stages of any competitions, but are getting success here and there. I cannot see, why people talk about Florentina and Manchester. Bayern had two Schalke matches including Cup between Manchester match which they both won (one match red card, one match 120 minutes). No one does talk about this. And even if you say thats normal, then I see no point to discuss those matches, when after it they did again show an improvement in the matches which are in close past (Lyon and Bremen cup final). We will see, I won't be surprised if Inter won't get the title - its 50/50 for me and the odds do only represent value on Bayern. :ok -
Re: UEFA Champions League Final > 22nd May I would probably go for either Olic/Robben or Milito/Sneijder/Eto. If I had to chose, I would go for Olic :)
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Re: UEFA Champions League Final > 22nd May
Fair well. Football is a game you can discuss about, but in some matches there will be simply different opinions and discussing about opinions won't end in one point. As you say, Mourinho does know Chelsea and they made one perfect match at Stamford Bridge. But so did Bayern do after 0:1 at home against Man Utd and so did Bayern do after 3:0! in Manchester. As for Barcelona, I did see Stuttgart vs Barcelona where they drew at home and the possibilities which Stuttgart got at home where not that bad at all and a more smart/less respect match in second leg would make it more tie. That and nothing else was done by Inter. Good pressing, good gap closing and faster counter attacks. Hence, what I did observe was, that Inter does defend with two lines of 4 man when the opponent holds the ball whilst two guys do in offense make pressure. However, the gap between those two lines of 4 man (defense/midfield) is quite huge and if you can cross the first line (passing in that gap to Müller/Olic/Robben/Hamit whoever) then you can bring them in nice trouble. If they close the gap with putting the midfield players even more back, then Bayern will have like 70-75% ball possession - Bayern will make the game and Inter will run around to close the gaps like chickens. Again I do not want to say Barcelona did play bad, but they simply did not find a good way to beat Inter's defensive style which was a problem that Guardiola had to solve. He could not. It is also funny, that with the way Bayern plays, the opponent looks very very weak (Lyon, Bremen) and people say that it was predictable easy wins. Pre- match everyone talked about close matches and Bayern owned both teams heavily making them look weak/bad. I see it coming, when Bayern will get it, we will discuss about what a bad day Inter had probably :loonI respectfully disagree. To say that knocking out the two favourites, with one being the best club team on the planet, wont help them in this match is nonsense..before this season Inter were nobodys in Europe, having Mourinho at the helm has changed the mentality of the side, they now play like they believe they deserve to be playing on the same stage as Europes greats..you could perhaps call their tie against Chelsea as fortunate as Mourinho knows so many of the players and tactics, but everyone in Europe knows how Chelsea play it is another thing to stop them! At Stamford Bridge they played the perfect game, I have not seen anyone play as well against Chelsea in the last 5 years, they played like a side you believed they could stop Chelsea and go through, a mentality which cant be ignored as 90% of teams that go there dont believe this, to go through against Barca was totally unexpected but equally remarkable, both these sides are better than Bayern for me.. I think Mourinho will employ aggressive tactics on Robben to shut down the key component in Bayerns side, I am not pretending to know more than I do about Bayern having only watched the 90mins of their games 4 or 5 times this season, but when I have watched them it has been Robben, not Ribery, who has been their best player by far..he looks back to the form he showed at the beginning of his Chelsea career..Olic looks to be a good player also, but to be honest you cant ignore the fact that Chelsea and Barca have better attacking players than Bayern and Mourinho had plans for the players in both these sides that nullified their threats.. Perhaps I am being unfair on Bayern, but I do think that Inters exploits in the competition this season deserve respect and give a fair indication of their abilities against superior sides..guess the difference this time is that they are favourites but I dont expect this to make much difference to how they play given how Mourinho has approached games like this in the past..I do not expect a rout by any means but I think Inter 0AH @ 1.62 (bet365) is a cautious but safe play.. -
Re: UEFA Champions League Final > 22nd May I am not sure if the draw and the path to the final will influence their performance? I mean if you win, even though you "should" lose this should show some kind of strength. Also funny to see that Bayern who were rated 50/50 against Lyon own them in both matches and people say oh well it was Lyon only. In a competition like this, which lasts over half a year you cannot compare most of the performances and conclude that Inter is favorite in final as well. They might be favourites, due to the overall experience in the team, but that is it. Their win against Chelsea/Barca won't help them in this match. :)
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Re: UEFA Champions League Final > 22nd May Inter favorite? It does surprise me a bit to be honest. Van Gaal took over Bayern München after such an awful season under Klinsmann and although he did face many injury problems (Ribery/Robben/Demicheles/Buyten/Van Bommel/Olic/Klose/Gomez - just to mention those who were injured for more than 2 weeks due to quite tough injuries). He did introduce a process, which was seen critical but the only thing which they did miss (although facing injuries) was to use their ball possession. Turning point was Juventus match, whom they beat 1:4 away from home - luck uh? Later Florentina was beaten (again huge injury problems) and it involved some luck. Against Manchester, sorry to say, but if you come back twice (0:1 - 2:1 and 3:0 - 3:2) then you have certain qualities. Of course in the second match it was pretty much individual strength, but the way they did hold the ball after 3:2 was just amazing even against 10 man I saw enough teams concede a 4:2 because the opponent would do PRESSURE and risk something. But nothing - Manchester did realize and accept the score. Later on, Bayern still had their good run - this time less injuries and also the team itself understood what Van Gaal wants. Not only Bayern fans did like the football they celebrate, also fans of other teams did respect the way they won - by dominating. This is some positive sign, trust me, no one does respect Bayern easily. Usually it is hate or disliking them. Cup final - so mentally strong after they won the league, they just rule out Bremen 0:4 with such a convincing performance which is just unbelievable. Bayern was priced 2.05 to win the match so you see they were not a heavy favorite again, against a good rated Bremen team (by many tipsters & bookies as well). A lot of people, talk about a 50/50 here. Mourinho and Van Gaal do know each other very well. Mourinho was translator back then, Van Gaal came as new coach and he did not need Mourinho. Mourinho did not accept this easily which did influence Van Gaal positively and he decided to take Mourinho with him. 3 Years of work so both should know each other very well. The difference between both teams is the approach of how they want to get the success. Mourinho does prefer very, very good defending. He knows how to teach his players to avoid giving much space to the opponent and he also knows how to drop down the performance of good individual players such as Messi. Van Gaal is different. His approach is to show good offensive football, without losing the ball too much. He does want to be successful and play football, stating that this approach is more difficult than the one Mourinho has. In my eyes, this is 50/50 in terms of winning the title. Two different approaches of two coaches, who work with the utmost care, will face each other. Trust me, the players on the pitch won’t decide the match, it will be the right tactic - a small but significant move of one of the coaches will decide this. Both, Mourinho and Van Gaal can put anyone on the pitch. They will all be prepared well for this match and all of them going to know what to do. Just like robots, who own a script written by the coaches where to move, how to defend, how to attack. The better script will win this match and maybe one individual move/mistake - both are capable of doing this (Eto/Sneijder/Milito - Robben/Olic/Müller). Therefore, I would lay Inter - if I would bet anything because I think this will be so super close that this match doesn’t deserve a favorite at all. Inter lay risking the lowest amount, so I will most likely lay it myself. Good luck and enjoy the books written by the coaches for this match. Mourinho v Van Gaal
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Re: £50 to ? Using The Forums Best Bet of The Day Very interesting, keep it up :ok
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Re: Turkey Turkcll SuperLig May 7th-10th 2010 0:3 Fenerbahce win. My fan heart is laughing, but I definitely should avoid betting on my home sweet home country league :loon
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Re: Turkey Turkcll SuperLig May 7th-10th 2010 Another hot story in SuperLig here. Ankara sold only tickets to Fenerbahce supporters via Internet and there gonna be lots of Bursa supporters to support Ankara against Fenerbahce. It gonna be a very hot game, a very close match with big importance for Fenerbahce. The pressure is unreal and the amount of people who would love to see Fenerbahce failing in this one as well. Fenerbahce might win at the end, the have the quality to do so. However, they had the Turkish Cup final midweek which they did lost 3:1. The match was played in the midday under hot sun and the fact that Fenerbahce did lost this again (and it is like 27 years now that they didnt get the cup) - did even put more pressure on the team. Only the title can safe this rather average season. Bursaspor will get 3 points for free because they head Ankaraspor who are relegated already since beginning of season after league administrative decision. The amount of pressure, the fact that this is an away match and the fact that all eyes will be on this match is indicating a close match full of tension. Because of this, I do like Ankaragücü +1.5. I simply cannot see Fenerbahce outplaying Ankaragücü today. It is too hot, the pressure is too high and Fenerbahce will be more than glad to grab a close win today. My choice here: Ankaragücü +1.5 5/10 @1.51 on bet365 :ok
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Re: Zico's Bundesliga Laying (Yield: 48% Profit/Loss: +131.1 pts) Picks: 33 Won: 24 Win Rate: 73% Staked: 330 pts Return: 450.3 pts Profit/Loss: +120.3 pts Bank: 1120.3 pts Yield: 36% :beer
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Re: Zico's Bundesliga Laying (Yield: 48% Profit/Loss: +131.1 pts)
Nürnberg with a late goal, unlucky but still a nice end to a nice season :ok +13.2 units :clapLay Hertha @4.4 +9.5 Lay Schalke @2.52 +9.5 Lay Nürnberg @1.58 -5.8 :hope -
Re: Zico's Bundesliga Laying (Yield: 48% Profit/Loss: +131.1 pts) Lay Hertha @4.4 Lay Schalke @2.52 Lay Nürnberg @1.58 :hope
Progressive staking
in Betting Systems & Strategy
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Re: Progressive staking - very selective system
Kind of exciting to see them after you promised to post them after every bet. Maybe it is nice to see someone is having a look at this, might give you some motivation boost :tongue2