[Rational Football Season Previews]

Re: Rational Football Season Previews [h=3]Hamburger SV[/h] Bundesliga Dinosaur When visiting the Hamburg website one aspect is eye catching straight away. The Bundesliga clock is still clicking for Hamburg. Over 50 years and 360 days Hamburg remains playing in German Bundesliga 1 and never in this period Hamburg was so close to get relegated like last season. Three coaches and two relegation games at the end of the season were necessary to hold the club in the league. This season was obviously far away from what Hamburg could achieve assuming they would use their potential in the right way. Rational Football strongly believes that no coach in this world can coach in circumstances of chaos. The chaos was created by managers and members of the supervisory board. The club did not follow one particular way in which it believed and players were finding open ears on several fronts which created split groups. Working under these conditions will allow few coaches to be still successful and changing three coaches during a season is speaking for no concept and a lot of panic. Rational Football Statement: Shock Season Leading To The Right Changes! Probably the most prominent change for Hamburger SV is Dietmar Beiersdorfer. He was managing Hamburg five years ago and knows the club very well. Once coming to Hamburg it already feels like he has done more than what happened the last five years together. He got private investor Kühne to open the cash desk to buy players that Slomka really wanted for his team. He bought Valon Behrami who is a quick and strong defensive midfielder. Furthermore, Nikolai Müller was transferred to Hamburg who has proven his quick pace offensive qualities in Mainz. Finally Matthias Ostrzolek joined the team to fix the long but never solved issues on the left back position. It is a busy time for Beiersdorfer who is not only responsible for sportive management issues, but also for the transfers because Oliver Kreuzer who failed kind of miserable last season was sacked. When Beiersdorfer was asked about the season aims by Sky Sport News, he could not help himself but say that currently he is working himself into the whole process. A delighting honest answer which shows what makes Beiersdorfer probably the best choice for Hamburg. He is rational and understands what philosophy of football his coach Slomka believes in. The transfers are neither based on names nor on a specific line up. They are based on the way Slomka wants to play with his team and the players can be used in difference line ups. Hamburger SV – The Squad Slomka believes in keeping Van der Vaart and after giving Hakan Calhanoglu away there will be a higher focus on the oranje star. He had a very weak last season with a lot of private issues and is in a position where he has to deliver. With the mentioned transfer Hamburg added three quality players to their first eleven which they needed to do. Having done that, they are coming closer to get a decent first eleven together. However, Hamburg stills has some work to do in terms of generating quality on bench and thus having quality replacement available if key players are out of form or face injuries. In attack a lot of pressure was lying on Lasogga last season and knowing his fable for regular injuries Slomka has to find solutions to create scoring alternatives. Overall, the quality in the team is acceptable and there are few transfer rumors going on which could add further options. Slomka and Beiersdorfer need to get silence around the club, so that the players can adjust themselves to a certain way of playing and learn the automatisms. The likelyhood of this whole process going smooth is pretty small given the fact that Hamburg is a high stress level club, but a good season start should help the management and coach to establish a professional level of organization on and outside the pitch. Hamburger SV – Formation, Key Players, Regulars, Expected Line up and Tactics This information is a vital part of our Analysis Product. Visit us here to buy our Analysis for the upcoming Hamburg games!

[Rational Football Season Previews]

Re: Rational Football Season Previews [h=3]SC Freiburg[/h] The season after Europe Freiburg definitely had a long, intense past season because of the ongoing relegation fight and their involved in Europa League. They are not the first team which has been struggling running two competitions in one season. On top of the intense schedule, Freiburg also had to cope with many talented players leaving them which left coach Streich with a lot of implementing work. This type of work can only be done with enough training sessions which are very limited when there are midweek fixtures in European Competitions. Despite this tough preconditions Streich and his team managed to stay in Bundesliga another season. The club aims to be one of the best 18-22 teams in Germany which shows that the club would also survive going down a season or two. This rational and correct rating of the club takes away pressure from coach Streich, who usually likes to take all attention to him when his team is doing bad. The club is supporting each other inside its structures and is used to the relegation fight. Rational Football Statement: No Europe – No Cry! We believe that Freiburg will profit strongly from a season without European competition. A team mixed with so many young players and a team that actually plays that kind of intense football needs its recovery periods. Coach Streich is a painstakingly working individual who will know how to use the time in a perfect manner. It was the big triple winner coach from München, Jupp Heynckes, who was underlining the amazing work of Streich in the 2012/2013 season which qualified Freiburg for Europe League. Prior the following 2014/2015 season, Streich is facing the same circumstances with his team as in the very successful 2012/2013 season and it would not be a big surprise to Rational Football if Freiburg could surprise one or another of the higher budget teams that aim to qualify for Europe League. SC Freiburg – The Squad Despite losing a couple of players, especially own youth talents Baumann and Ginter, Freiburg did not lose players that had a huge impact on the team. Most of the bigger names like Hanke or Pilar could never show up their potential and thus cannot be righted as a huge downgrade to the team. For the goalkeeper position two replacements were bought and Ginter is replaced by Stefan Mitrovic from Benfica. Unlike last season, Freiburg does not have to replace a lot of starters and the new players that joined the team like experienced Riether and Frantz have enough time to be implemented to the team philosophy. Overall the Freiburg squad is built of young talents, young talents that established themselves in Bundesliga and experienced Bundesliga regulars. Individually seen the quality is reaching from hard fighting but limited to hard fighting and very talented. With a lot more time to prepare the team, Freiburg should be able to run intense power football again making it difficult to any team even with more individual quality to beat them. SC Freiburg – Formation, Key Players, Regulars, Expected Line up and Tactics This information is a vital part of our Analysis Product. Visit us here to buy our Analysis for the upcoming Freiburg game!

[Rational Football Season Previews]

Re: Rational Football Season Previews [h=3]FC Augsburg[/h] Augsburg Fire Power Markus Weinzierl managed to create a very impressive, intensive and hard-working Augsburg team in a matter of two seasons. When you watched Augsburg at home last season, you will know how Augsburg managed to get even neutral fans sympathizing with them. They played compact football, but once they were in ball possession they switched to a quick paced football in a 4-2-3-1 or 4-1-4-1 formation. The high intensity, the number of intensive runs the team mate. All of it made it difficult for teams to visit Augsburg and steal points. Everything seemed to work and the season aims of avoiding relegation were easily passed. Rational Football Statement: Similar Football – New Faces! Augsburg has been able to create a good club structure like Freiburg or Mainz (during the era of Tuchel). The management with Reuter and the coach Weinzierl are harmonizing very well. No club can avoid their star players to be sold, especially when they want to go and do the next step. Some clubs struggle to compensate this effect, some do better. In the case of the clubs that do well replacing the loss of some of their star players, in most cases the club has a clear philosophy and Rational Football thinkers who know how to analyze the loss. All the attributes that are lost by giving away that particular player are either compensated one by one, or the game slightly changes to highlight the strengths of remaining regular players and new players are bought that suits to these strengths. Borussia Dortmund and Jürgen Klopp are a perfect example of how to compensate the loss of a key player season by season. Rational Football strongly believes that given the high football knowledge, the good structures in the club and the remaining quality in the squad the team will be playing a similar intense and hard-working football this season! Augsburg – The Squad A problem that every small to medium sized club has to face is that their players are highly to be bid at after a strong season. Augsburg had to give away Ostrzolek, Andre Hahn, Kevin Vogt and Dong-Won Ji who were all starters. At the same time Augsburg invested some huge amount of money and broke their transfer record. They bought Tim Matavz for 4 million Euro for the striker position and there are big hopes linked to him when it comes to talking about goals! Baba was bought to replace Ostrzolek one to one. Shawn Parker, Djurdjic and Caiuby should try to replace Hahn and Ji. Even though Hahn might have been a level above these new players, Rational Football believes that replacing Hahn is definitely possible. The overall running investment of team allows all players to get more support and thus making the overall team look more quality. The new transfers will have to understand the philosophy of the coach and the team. Once they get the routine people in Augsburg should not talk about the miss of Hahn, Ostrzolek and Ji. However, Augsburg is clearly running some risk on the center midfield positions. At the beginning of the pre-season Baier, Halil and Moravek seemed to be the choices, but with Moravek getting a cruciate ligament rupture and no replacement bought for Vogt options start to get limited. New transfer Feulner could cover this position as he has got some Bundesliga experience. However, he missed parts of the pre-season preparation due to a shoulder injury which leads Dominik Kohr being an option to start here. By now it is getting visible that choices are getting more and more limited. An injury of the brain in midfield, Baier, could be hardly replaced by the current squad. Overall, the team has definitely got enough quality and the coach knows how to use it in order to avoid relegation. If everything will run as perfect as last season remains on the midfield player’s health and to how the new players are capable of bringing their skills into the Augsburg philosophy! FC Augsburg – Formation, Key Players, Regulars, Expected Line up and Tactics This information is a vital part of our Analysis Product. Visit us here to buy our Analysis for the upcoming Augsburg games!

[Rational Football Season Previews]

Re: Rational Football Season Previews [h=3]Hannover 96[/h] Surviving the Start It has not been easy for Tayfun Korkut to jump into the coaching role of Hannover 96 with half a season to go. There is a certain philosophy at the club and usually if a new coach joins a team it is because another one has been sacked due to certain issues which either lie in the fact that results were bad or that the new is not following the coach no more. Whatever exactly the reason was, Tayfun Korkut could assure Hannover staying in the league with a great start in his club. However, it was not really his team and neither was it used to play his type of football. Rational Football Statement: Counter Attacks only? No more! With Slomka Hannover had certainly some amazing amount of success reaching Europa League and establish a team which let president Kind even dream about Champions League football. However, most odds compiling companies and individuals who followed Hannover closely were noticing that Hannover never really convinced winning with a huge amount of goal chances. They were adjusted their game to live from particular moments, which got to be known as the “10-second-rule”. Slomka wanted his team to kill opponents on the break and get to the opponents box within 10 seconds after winning ball possession. Furthermore, they were quite dangerous on set pieces. Now it does not take Rational Football to tell you that a coach like Pep Guardiola would never be satisfied with this football. Neither would Streich from Freiburg nor Klopp from Dortmund. This offensive football is pretty efficient if it works and can bring success, but once players are injured and the team loses its flow it can be very difficult to keep the success. Slomka was blamed to not be able to develop the team further and Statisticians have been proven right that teams that create only a few chances will have a tough time scoring. Tayfun Korkut is in the process of changing this football philosophy. He wants to combine counter attacking football with ball possession football, which is nothing else than Dortmund does. In order for a team to find its correct rhythm it needs practice and right mix of players! Hannover – The squad Hannover has lost a couple of great individual players. Huszti went to China and Didier Ya Konan to Saudi Arabia, both to finish their career sweet. Diouf went to the Premier League. Veteran and fans favorite Cherundolo finished his career. However, for the first time club manager Dirk Dufner was allowed to spend historical money on Miiko Albornoz (replacing sold Pocognoli), Kiyotake and Joselu. Whilst Kiyotake kind of replaces the element of creativity Huszti could bring in, he is also the type of player who can help Tayfun Korkut to add the new ball possession thought to the team. Joselu who earned his Bundesliga experience in Hoffenheim and Frankfurt is certainly capable of being a threat up front and Hannover paid the record sum of 5 million Euros for him. He is a good finisher with a good technique and a great heading ability. With this attributes he fits straight into the variable football Hannover wants to play this season. Rational Football rates the transfers positive and we can see some logical thought process behind all transfers. Even the relatively cheap Stankevicius (33 years old) transfer makes sense. He wants an experienced right footed back up on the center back position that can also function as a backup on the right back position for Sakai. Overall, we have to say that every process takes time. Klopp in his first season for Dortmund could not deliver instant success either and although Korkut has got the full pre-season to implement his change in tactics and formation, this process will come along with some disappointing periods. There is also the danger that the club in itself recently has been a bit too noisy for our taste. With the big transfers there is some pressure lying on manager Dufner and coach Korkut and president Kind is not known for his deep football knowledge to understand football related processes. Results will buy time and time will deliver the chance for this team to grow in a way Korkut thinks the team can have success! FC Augsburg – Formation, Key Players, Regulars, Expected Line up and Tactics This information is a vital part of our Analysis Product. Visit us here to buy our Analysis for the upcoming Augsburg games!

[Rational Football Season Previews]

Re: Rational Football Season Previews [h=3]FSV Mainz 05[/h] What has changed? The biggest change Mainz 05 has to adjust to surely be the fact that successful coach Tuchel gave up on job despite having a contract still. The whole process of him giving up a running contract did not allow Tuchel to leave the club in a way he deserved to. However the contract was signed by him and it was only understandable that Mainz was willing to find a solution in which Tuchel cannot join another club until the end of his contract. The result: Tuchel takes a year off and Mainz has a new coach with Kasper Hjulmand. A change that the club did not really want to make, but which it was forced to do! Rational Football Statement: One Change Works Fast – Several Changes Not! To see a change on the coaching position in a club and a team that has been doing decent is usually quite unlikely. The players get used to a certain type of organization and it is human nature to not go for too many changes when things work decent. Mainz 05 as a club has always managed to keep silence around the club and also show a lot of patience. As a result, it is not surprising that Mainz coach Hjulmand got full support despite getting knocked out in Europa League Play Offs and the first German Cup Tie. The team obviously had problems to adjust to the changes fast and the coach seems to ask for a bit more quality in the squad as well. Rational Football believes that Hjulmand, as a very communicative coach, could work out to get the maximum potential out of the Mainz possibilities. This is the pressure he is facing, because Tuchel managed to do so in the past years. At the same time the Mainz 05 management is clever enough to see that the squad dropped some quality as well which so far has not been replaced perfectly. Thus Mainz is facing an adaption period with the new coach together with a lack of quality coming from players who left the club. Mainz 05 – The Squad Mainz had to give away Moting to Schalke. They gave away Müller to Hamburg. He did not play a big role in the second half of the season were Mainz still did decent so one might believe he is replaceable. Pospech on the right back position was helping the squad with his experience despite his age. Bench option Parker was sold to Augsburg. Mainz was able to get Brosinski from Fürth for the right back position together with Jara from Nottm Forest. Both players did not play first division last season and it remains to be seen how they can adjust to the expectations. In offense Mainz was not able to get a replacement for Moting. Djuricic came on loan from Benfica and could add some element of danger. There will be a lot of hopes lying on his shoulders as with the absence of Moting and Müller, most goals will be expected from Okazaki who had a great past season. It is nothing new that Mainz has to be creative in finding solutions for the squad and even with a transfer or two the overall quality level of Mainz will be only enough for the middle of the table a close look to what is going on under them. A mixture of changes both on the coaching staff and the squad will ask for a lot of patience and hard work for the Mainz club in order to not be into the relegation fight towards the end of the season. FSV Mainz 05 – Formation, Key Players, Regulars, Expected Line up and Tactics This information is a vital part of our Analysis Product. Visit us here to buy our Analysis for the upcoming Mainz games!

[Rational Football Season Previews]

Re: Rational Football Season Previews [h=3]Hertha BSC[/h] Berlin establishing in Bundesliga After promoting to German Bundesliga One last season Hertha BSC managed to establish themselves in the midfield of the table after a great start into the season. Adrian Ramos (16 of 40 goals) and the tactically very shrewd coach Luhukay were definitely key parts in this success. Rational Football Statement: Set new stimuli – Tactically be flexible! Hertha BSC had an interesting transfer period and it shows were the focus was lying. Ramos had to be sold to Dortmund after a good offer and Lasogga who was already playing for Hamburg last season on loan was sold for great money as well. Rational Football already mentioned the high impact Ramos had on the team scoring 40% of the goals and giving the assist for one third of the goals scored by his team mates. Such a loss in a team can only be by a new formation and interpretation of the formation. Midfielders will be bound, but also allowed to use the new space and responsibility. With the big money earned on the two sells, Hertha invested into seven new players from which Julian Schieber is the only player who could be described as a similar type of target striker like Ramos. He definitely does not have the same football IQ which was proven by his few chances in the Dortmund squad, but he has got a good finish which might help Hertha to recover some of the miss. The number of new transfers on different positions instead of replacing misses one to one shows that Luhukay tries to set new stimuli in almost every part of the team. During the early starting and pretty long pre-season he was able to try out several formations including the World Cups most interesting 3-4-3. Luhukay wants to get away from the first seasons requirement of adjusting their game to their stronger opponents. He wants his team to be more pro-active and press their way of wanting to play football on their opponents instead. This is a process Hertha will keep working on and the club obviously is aware of that this will take more than this season to establish. Hertha – The Squad As mentioned, Hertha could be expected to have some problems on the striker position with the absence of Adrian Ramos. However, they have added experienced Heitinga to the defense. With 30 years he is going to be the oldest player in the team. The midfield was improved with Stocker, Beerens, Haraguchi, Jens Hegeler and loan player Cigerci was bought. Together with the already available players Josh Luhukay managed to create a competition on almost any position in defense and midfield which will allow the team to react to injuries and push every single player’s performance. Overall, it still remains questionable as to which extent Hertha can use the competition in defense and midfield in order to create a line-up that comes along with enough firepower in front of goal. Rational Football strongly believes that a coach like Josh Luhukay might use this change in order to get more fire power from the whole team, especially the midfielders (f.e. Ronny). If he manages to do so, Hertha might not only solve the issue of losing Ramos, but also gain a new flexibility and thus a new element of pro-active football to their play! Hertha BSC – Formation, Key Players, Regulars, Expected Line up and Tactics This information is a vital part of our Analysis Product. Visit us here to buy our Analysis for the upcoming Hertha games!

[Rational Football Season Previews]

Re: Rational Football Season Previews [h=3]Werder Bremen[/h] Dutts first Season with Bremen Robin Dutt and Bremen did not have an easy last season. They were never able to deliver constant performances and although stats can lie many times they do not when we look at Bremen. Average at home, Average away from home and despite a 10 games without conceding a goal there were many games included were Bremen was humiliated (Bayern, Dortmund). With the quality of the team and last season being his first in Bremen, Dutt can be satisfied with the position they finished. Rational Football Statement: Plain Average! Dutt did try to get some defensive balance to his Bremen team which partly worked out (10 games without conceding a goal). Whenever he tried to make the next step and implement more offensive elements into their game plan they struggled great and conceded easily. Bremen will go into the 2014/2015 facing similar issues again which are basically due to the average to low quality in the team. The good news is that Dutt was still able to collect enough points to keep the club in the league. The bad news is that fans and analyst regularly fail to figure out which face Bremen will show up. It is no surprise that within Rational Football contacts there is a lot of different opinions to where Bremen will and can end up. We believe that a few aspects can bring some light in the dark and unpredictable tunnel. Robin Dutt has been coaching Freiburg, a team with limited funds, quite successful in the past. He knows what it takes to establish the right balance in the team to try and seal points with what can be described as a weak game. At the same time he has the capacity to go a step further and try to develop the team. Even though Bremen obviously lacks quality, Robin Dutt might be just the right guy to get through Bremen for another season and develop a few young players in the background which could help the club to establish more quality. Bremen currently neither has the money nor the perfect image to grow players with potentials to talents as they used to have. Teams like Hoffenheim, Leverkusen, Schalke and Wolfsburg are way more appealing and there is no other way than Bremen aiming to survive this period of rare positive moments in the middle of the table. Bremen – The Squad Despite having some players with great potential (Selke, Elia, Hajrovic) for the upcoming season, they also have a lot of plain squad fillers who done okay in Bundesliga (Makiadi and others). In midfield the team added Gálvez to the defensive midfield position. While key player Hunt will be tried to be replaced by Hajrovic, the team lacks a real striker on paper similar to Hertha. Petersen could not convince despite having box player qualities with a strong heading ability. Dutt says that Petersen will make enough games after questions to the Cup game were Hajrovic, Elia and youngster Selke were preferred. Di Santo and Elia were supposed to play in attack. Elia is generally seen more as a winger and his finishing qualities are definitely far from perfect. He has a good technique and comes along with quite some pace and dribbling abilities. Di Santo was doing okay upfront until his injury, but he returned back to training again. In the Cup game Dutt used Hajrovic next to Elia and it remains to be seen if Dutt can find a steady scoring treat for the attack positions. Overall the squad quality is average and a lot will depend on which solutions Bremen will find to keep the defense balance without losing any firepower going forward! Werder Bremen – Formation, Key Players, Regulars, Expected Line up and Tactics This information is a vital part of our Analysis Product. Visit us here to buy our Analysis for the upcoming Werder Bremen games!

[Rational Football Season Previews]

Re: Rational Football Season Previews [h=3]Eintracht Frankfurt[/h] Veh Out – Schaaf in At the end of last season Veh announced to leave Frankfurt to Stuttgart which regarding to Veh was the only choice in Bundesliga for him. Thomas Schaaf, who were are more used to see on the Bremen bench, joined Frankfurt. He believes that the club has a great fan base, a good stadium and a management which he can rely on. However, right at the beginning of his job he got disappointed: “We knew that one or two players would be leaving, but in the end, we’ve lost more than we expected. Now we’ve got to see how we cope,” Schaaf explained. Rational Football Statement: New Coach, New Philosophy! The biggest change is visible when one coach is using a talented player like Alex Meier on offensive midfield and the other one is benching the player although fit. To explain the reasons and the change coach Thomas Schaaf wants to run his team through Rational Football has to define what player Alex Meier is and which weaknesses comes along with his strengths. Alex Meier is probably one of those talented, strong technique and all kind of finishing skills owning player who would have dominated football perfectly back in the times where the game was not this paced and athletic. He still proved to be able to play on German Bundesliga level scoring regularly with his head or with his great shooting technique. However, Thomas Schaaf wants to play more direct and more risky football going forward. As a result he prefers to run the small, quick and agile Inui on the offensive midfield position. Whilst he might lack a bit of the scoring ability that Meier has, he is still capable of bringing team mates into position with good passing and dribbling’s. Schaaf and Frankfurt want to change the team to play quicker offensive football, but they are using every moment to underline that they need time for this process. Whilst losing players on key positions, like center back, defensive midfield, offensive midfield or attack is usually difficult to compensate it might quite an opportunity for Schaaf to make the changes quicker. Frankfurt – The Squad Hasebe who is very unselfish player and is experienced in winning Bundesliga with Wolfsburg once and Lanig who is a bit limited in technique but is what we can call a box to box player are expected to play behind Inui. These two positions were covered by key players Schwegler and Rode when they were not injured. Both player s left the team. On the wing Schaaf received two new players. Valdez did already play for Schaaf in Bremen 7 years ago. With 30 he is still in an age where he can help the team and he added experience in Hercules, Kazan and Valencia in the recent years. He knows the league and was used on the wings in the recent Cup game. On the other side of the wing young and talented Piazón came on loan from Chelsea. The midfield is expected to support the new signing Seferovic in attack who is expected to replace Joselu who left the team. The team did not change any other position in defense and goal than the right back position. Key player and strong talent Jung left the team. He will be placed by Ignjovski who also already played with Schaaf or Chandler who came from the relegated Nürnberg side. Overall the team has got some interesting qualities. A few players such as Flum, Aigner (injured), Rosenthal, Meier and Kadlec are certainly capable of pushing first eleven in terms of competition. The approach of how Schaaf does want to play with his team is certainly interesting. Compared to other teams the team owns a good balance of solid players at the back, but also alternatives in attack. Rational Football believes that Frankfurt should not be in the relegation fight towards the end of the season. There is enough quality in the team to avoid relegation despite selling key players and they definitely have fewer problems on paper than a couple of other teams! Eintracht Frankfurt – Formation, Key Players, Regulars, Expected Line up and Tactics This information is a vital part of our Analysis Product. Visit us here to buy our Analysis for the upcoming Eintracht Frankfurt games!

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Re: Rational Football Season Previews [h=3]VfB Stuttgart[/h] Champions Coach Veh Back in the House! Armin Veh is a pretty straight forward guy and when he says Stuttgart is the only club he would have changed to after his station in Frankfurt we can believe him. Veh and Stuttgart – that reads like a lot of credit and the support of the fans which was missing recently. Ever since Stuttgart started the work on their stadium the atmosphere got worse, the stadium is rarely sold out and the management is limited in his financial power when it comes to buying new players. Manager Bobic has been under some pressure and has not been looking perfect in all the decisions he has taken so far. With Veh Bobic buys himself and the team some time. Veh will surely enjoy some credit at the beginning of the season. Additionally, Stuttgart will surely enjoy the fact that they are not playing International which lowers the intensity on the schedule and allows coach Veh to work more intense with the team. Rational Football Statement: Time to work on the mental strength! In the last season Stuttgart was one of the teams that were shaky as hell. In the second half of the season they were leading so many games to just give away the lead late in the game to draw or to even lose. There can be two reasons for this. You either have no stable structure in the team with players that take over responsibility or you struggle in terms of condition. Rational Football followed this trend intensively and believes that both reasons play a great role. Stuttgart started games pretty intense and regularly looked to have a better structure in the game. Towards the end of the game nervousness and individual mistakes accumulated. Looking into the team there are three to four players that could be rated as players who are expected to take over responsibility ever since Tasci left in defense. Harnik, Ibisevic, Gentner and Niedermeier. In any other team these players would be far away from even coming into consideration to be leading players, as well as starters. These players have to focus on their game to do well and once they receive additional pressure on their shoulder like taking over responsibility for the younger players they just fall apart in their performance. After the Cup out against German Bundesliga Two team Bochum (2:0) Armin Veh reacted pretty cool. He stated that the defeat is obviously not good and said that they have to keep on the good work and that they will so. The sentence that followed up on this is pretty much our statement above. Armin Veh said: “We have to specially work on the fact that we get mentally stronger in some situations.” It is a good sign that Veh noticed this issue and with his several experiences in teams that fought against relegation up to teams that played for European business he should be able to have a positive impact on this issue. Stuttgart – The Squad Players that had an impact on the team and were given away or sold are Boka (replaceable), Traore (big loss with his last season form) and Cacau (backup). Replacements were brought in with Hlousek (Boka role, but also capable of playing left wing), Ginczek (slowly coming back from a cruciate ligament rupture), Florian Klein and the pretty expensive buy of Filip Kostic for the left wing position (Traore replacement). Weighting sold and bought players, the team has not really made a huge improvement and it has to be patient to integrate Kostic. Additionally, it has to be seen how Ginczek returns from his long injury. His return is very important because he is one of the few alternatives together with the currently injured Abdellaoue to replace Ibisevic. The striker position looks far from being settled in satisfying way and the club is entering the season with quite a question mark here. In midfield Stuttgart has got a couple of options on the wings, Didavi is finally going into a season fit and could be a key factor in the team when avoiding injuries. For defensive midfield Oriol Romeu was brought on loan in order to get more security in ball possession on this position. A role that Holzhauser and Kvist (both return from loan) could not take over, but they will remain options on the bench. The defense row as it ran in the Cup with Sakai, Rüdiger, Schwaab and Klein is pretty vulnerable to pressure. The left and right back positions are okay as long as they receive enough support by the midfield. Schwaab has average qualities at best and although Rüdiger has the potential to develop to a great player it is obvious that he would definitely profit from a certain level of experience around him. Overall the current Stuttgart team is picked with some talented players, but generally it is quite young and those players that are more experienced showed a lack of ability to lead the team. It will be a complicated procedure for Armin Veh to keep this confident and next to all the tactical work it will be the mental aspect that will have to be solved for this team to reach their maximum potential! Once they achieve this and the striker position gets options with Abdellaoue and Ginczek Rational Football believes that Stuttgart could get in a good run at some stage of the season getting several good results which can be enough to assure that Stuttgart does not dip too much into the bottom part of the table again! VfB Stuttgart – Formation, Key Players, Regulars, Expected Line up and Tactics This information is a vital part of our Analysis Product. Visit us here to buy our Analysis for the upcoming Stuttgart games!

[Rational Football Season Previews]

Re: Rational Football Season Previews [h=3]1899 Hoffenheim[/h] Half Season Champion, Championship Dreams and Relegation Fight Hoffenheim experienced a lot in their short Bundesliga history. From their first crazy season were they ran over Bundesliga and finished half season on first position to a season were they were almost relegated to last season where they finally stabilized in the midfield of Bundesliga. Stable is not always what you want to refer to Hoffenheim with 72 goals scored and 70 goals conceded they were certainly one of the top scoring teams, but also close behind Hamburg the team that conceded most. Manager Alexander Rosen had the task to find players to stabilize the team further and bought a goalkeeper and three defensive minded players. Rational Football Statement: Stabilize the planned Chaos! When Hoffenheim came to the German Bundesliga they were known for straight forward, intense and quick football. When Ralf Rangnick left the team as a coach because Gustavo was sold to Bayern in the winter break Hoffenheim started to change. In the course of the following seasons Hoffenheim kind of lost their identity struggling to find defensive balance without giving up what made them the team they are. It took Markus Gisdol as a coach to find back the real identity of Hoffenheim. Fans could enjoy a lot of goals, a very offensive minded team which also from time to time knew when to step back and defend. Going into the season holding the most important players will give Gisdol the opportunity to perfection his ideals further and improve the team! 1899 Hoffenheim – The Squad The list of players that have left the club is not including many important players. Eren Derdiyok left to Turkey. Although he has proven some element of success in Bundesliga he could not really make it in Hoffenheim. Joselu was on loan to Frankfurt and was redirected to Hannover for a great sum. Although he is a great player, he cannot be rated as a weakening because the team did already well offensively without him. As mentioned before, the management could add some decent quality to the Hoffenheim side. Goalkeeper Baumann was bought from Freiburg to improve the goalkeeper position. Jin-Su Kim (left back) and Ermin Bicakcic (center back) were bought to add alternatives to the defense. Pirmin Schwegler from Frankfurt was praised by coach Gisdol for his flexibility on both the center and defensive midfield positions. An improvement in defense stability was already visible in the test game where Hoffenheim only conceded one goal in eight games. The strong offensive part (especially Firmino and Volland) was improved by buying Szalai (striker) from Schalke and left winger Steven Zuber from CSKA Moscau. Rational Football believes that the transfer policy of Hoffenheim has been really strong and the team has been improved further compared to the last season. Overall, the team has a great balance of experienced players and young developing guns. Andreas Beck, captain in the team, sums up the atmosphere in the team: “I am especially happy that the club found its identity again, but still grows at the same time. We have a healthy mix of young and experienced players. Believe me: It is feeling very good.” Rational Football sees a great potential in Hoffenheim. The management and the coach are doing a good job and the atmosphere within the team is great. The fact that players like Firmino, who were chased by big European clubs, believe in the philosophy and think that the way the team plays suits their way of playing is just showing that Hoffenheim as a club reached a good level. When coach Gisdol manages to work on the individual mistakes in defense and keep the team performing as good offensively as last season they are very likely to have a successful season! 1899 Hoffenheim – Formation, Key Players, Regulars, Expected Line up and Tactics This information is a vital part of our Analysis Product. Visit us here to buy our Analysis for the upcoming Hoffenheim games!

[Rational Football Season Previews]

Re: Rational Football Season Previews [h=3]1. FC Köln[/h] Kölle Alaaf? Rational Football saw Köln promote and relegate from German Bundesliga. Often enough we followed a lot of chaos around and in the club. Köln is known for carnival, a festival a professional football club does not necessarily want to be linked with. Coaches like Solbakken (former Köln, now Copenhagen again) who is known to be able to deliver success were not able to develop the team which showed that the club had fundamental problems. How to use Relegation as a chance Jörg Schmadtke joined Köln as a CEO in 2013. There are few CEO in Germany that is able to establish clubs as good as he does and he seems to get out the maximum of all the clubs he manages. During his time in Aachen Schmadtke developed the club, experiencing one promotion and several Cup game successes. After he left, Aachen was miss managed and is now down to Regionalliga West. Schmadtke later joined Hannover which established well in Bundesliga and also had a long Europa League run which amazed a lot of German Football Fans because of the big support by the fans even during away games. Now Schmadtke is working in a club that is known to be noisy in terms of information and critique that was shared to journalists. However, together with coach Stöger the club makes a surprisingly silent impression so far! Rational Football Statement: Early Preparation For Bundesliga Success! Köln managed to finish transfers very early this summer and this gives them a good opportunity to study several tactics for the season. Unlike the top teams in the league who suffer from the late arriving National Team Players Köln does only have to replace the injured Helmes for the start of the season. Coach Peter Stöger established a good set of strict rules for his players to keep the discipline high and he states that he did not had to announce any penalty last season. The team is following the coach and the level of discipline is surprisingly high for Köln standards of the past days. 1. FC Köln – The Squad With a lot of clever transfers Köln managed to push the atmosphere in the team to a very competitive one. Several players did play on a Bundesliga level before and talented players who proved their class in Bundesliga are rounding up the team. Coach Stöger wants to have a squad that allows him to not only rotate his team, but also be able to setup and change the formation or tactic during a game. This kind of preparation is very important, because Köln will face individually stronger opponents this season and the team will have to adapt to the new challenges. In general Köln owns a decent quality for a promoted team and also the potential on the bench gives Köln the opportunity to compensate possible injuries during the season. 1. FC Köln – Formation, Key Players, Regulars, Expected Line up and Tactics This information is a vital part of our Analysis Product. Visit us here to buy our Analysis for the upcoming Köln games!

[Rational Football Season Previews]

Re: Rational Football Season Previews [h=3]Bayern München[/h] What role will the World Cup really play? Every second year Bayern München is usually the team that suffers most from the International Cup games in the summer. Most of the players are running for big national teams such as Germany, France, Brazil and Netherlands. The national players usually come very far and as a result join the team very late for the pre-season or might even return injured. Pep Guardiola and Bayern München are used to this phenomenon. It is no surprise that the management and the coach expect a rough first two months, whilst some motivating comments are spread saying that the upcoming starting eleven of Bayern München will still contain eleven national players. While this is true, Bayern definitely has some risk early season running short on players on certain positions! Rational Football Statement: 3-4-3 or 4-3-3? Pep Guardiola is certainly trying to bring Bayern to another level by letting his team play in a 3-4-3 formation, at least that is the plan when going forward. As an example to explain the idea behind this change we will use the formation against Preussen Münster in the DFB Pokal. Neuer-Badstuber-Dante-Boateng-Bernat-Alaba-Lahm-Shaqiri-Götze-Müller-Lewandowski. Lahm was replaced by Gaudino (same position). Pizarro came in for Shaqiri and Müller moved to the right midfield. Rode came in for Badstuber, Alaba moved on his position. The general idea of Bayern is create domination in midfield. The more players are in the middle of the game, the better the team can start moving forward and the quicker the team can start pressing when losing the ball. An interesting inside was given when Bayern was running into a few counters early in the game. When Bayern scored Pep Guardiola went to Boateng showing him four fingers. Just a few minutes before Bayern was defending a counter and the defending line was formed by three players while the midfield was trying to press the ball holder or try chasing back. Rational Football believes that Pep Guardiola wants to start with three players in the back on paper, but in the case of losing the ball Bayern should create a back four line which can be easily done by either Bernat (left midfield) or Alaba (center midfield) taking over the left back position to make it four in a row. At the same time the plan is to push the attack to the sides. Pushing attacks to the sides means taking away options for the offensive players. While running through the middle allows quick passes to the left, to the right or going through the middle, being pushed on the side will restrict the offensive player from having three options. He can only try to push forward through the wing, or pass in the middle. A long pass to the other side will give the team further time to push back and get all players behind the ball. As a result, we believe that three defenders look pretty offensive on paper only when the team can get used to rotate to a back four while pushing counters to the sidelines. This process will take some time, but give Bayern a lot more opportunities to be variable and even less predictable than they were before. While studies of other teams usually show that teams struggle to create chances against good defending teams, it is only honorable that Pep Guardiola tries to develop his team further with all the short term risks that come along with a process! Bayern – The Squad History repeats and football proved that the top teams should have a lot of quality also on the bench. Looking at Bayern’s transfer window we can see that Bayern made a profit of 40 million Euros, money that is likely to be invested soon because of the injury of Martinez. We believe that Bayern should have reacted a lot earlier to get a strong back up either for the center midfield position or for the defense. Giving away Kroos to Real may have many reasons, but Bayern recognizes how quick they drop quality once Martinez is injured too and with the injury problems of Schweinsteiger and Thiago the midfield looks dry really quick. Rational Football believes that Bayern should at least get two new players. One player needs to be bought for midfield just because Schweinsteiger and Thiago are way too often injured and Kroos was given away. On the center back position Martinez breaks away as an alternative and with Buyten ending his career Bayern only has Dante, Boateng (suspended first round) and the recent comebacker Badstuber. With only one right foot on the center back position, Bayern needs to make a decent transfer on this position because any further injury would result in players being used on positions they are not primarily used to play. A big club with the financial power of Bayern must avoid this situation especially when they aim to be successful both in Bundesliga and also in the Champions League. With all the respect to Rode, Gaudino and Pierre-Emile Höjbjerg these guys should not be brought into the position to play key matches yet as the Super Cup game against Dortmund proved. All three have certainly the talent to improve to players on a good to very good Bundesliga level, but they will need their time! Away from the problems that Bayern has there is also a lot of quality and positive things to mention. Selling Mandzukic and replace him by Lewandowski just suits Bayern München. The way Lewandowski rotates upfront holding balls and giving his team mates time to move forward is amazing. We do not have to talk about his finishing qualities either. On the wings the quality of Ribery and Robben is not questioned. Müller and Shaqiri are available to also cover these positions. New transfer Bernat can cover the left side giving Alaba the opportunity to play on the left side in a three man defense or even on the center midfield position with Lahm. Badstuber shows an impressive form given his long injury and got praised a lot by Pep Guardiola. Manuel Neuer and Tom Starke enjoy the company of Pepe Reina who joined the team. The overall quality of the team does not have to be discussed and even with injuries Bayern will be able to run a starting eleven that should be enough in German Bundesliga. For the Champions League Bayern could start struggling as players the young squad fillers can be expected to struggle on a high International level! Bayern München – Formation, Key Players, Regulars, Expected Line up and Tactics We are pleased to say that we covered a lot of this information in our free previews that we created due to our foundation. We hope that you had a good read! Visit us here to buy our Analysis for the upcoming Bayern games!

[Rational Football Season Previews]

Re: Rational Football Season Previews [h=3]VfL Wolfsburg[/h] VW Wolfsburg! There is no doubt that as long as Wolfsburg is financially supported by Volkswagen, they will be always able to spend serious money in order to be a competitive team. In this transfer window the main focus was on trying to buy a striker. Benteke, Lukaku and other names were around but Wolfsburg could not get the desired result. It also shows that the management with Klaus Allofs and coach Hecking are not willing to jump into the crazy bidding habits that many teams abroad show. Rational Football Statement: Get Rid Of Old Mistakes And Establish A Team! When you have a look at the Wolfsburg squad, there are still a lot of players that were “randomly” bought during the period Felix Magath was manager and coach in Wolfsburg. The process will be to sell players that are not planned with and try to implement some of the players that came back from loan in a way they do not destroy the team harmony. The club aims to reach at least the Champions League qualifiers and could potentially come up for the top 3 race as well. However, the fact that they seem to be very limited on the attack position with oldie Ivica Olic could play a vital role over the course of a whole season! Wolfsburg – The Squad After a long search for a new striker Wolfsburg made a surprising signing of Nicklas Bendtner. The Danish international forward is known for his extravagant behaviors and could not really show up his whole potential in the past. It is questionable to which extent Bendtner deserves this trust, but as the contract is said to be strongly based on performance Wolfsburg does not risk too much financially. Bas Dost who is also in the squad and who is a pure striker could not fully convince. He was used in the extra time of the Cup game against Darmstadt coming in for Hunt. On the goalkeeper position Wolfsburg has Benaglio (currently injured) and Grün which is strong. The defense is improved by Jung for the right back position. On the defensive midfield, Guilavogui came on loan and is expected to partner up with Gustavo once he is in form again after a longer break from the WC. However, Wolfsburg also has the young Belgium talent Malanda who is back from injury and who convinced in his appearances last season. A defensive minded and strong tackling midfield trio with all three players could be possible as well (a switch from 4-2-3-1 to 4-3-3). In front of that Wolfsburg got improvement with Aaron Hunt, who came for free from Werder Bremen and the value “for free” is far away from describing his qualities. He is a creative midfielder with a good finishing and knows Bundesliga really well. Around him Perisic (currently injured), Arnold, Vierinha and De Bruyne are qualifying for the two wing positions. Overall, Wolfsburg owns some decent amount of quality on all positions. Similar to Schalke, they were regularly having problems against strong defending teams. In order to improve some variability Jung on the right back position might help. Coming from both wings and switching sides could help Wolfsburg to create space and the trio in offensive midfield certainly owns goal scoring attributes. Rational Football believes that whether or not Wolfsburg will be able to attack the top three will depend on how the quality on the striker position will turn out. Olic is not getting younger, Dost has to step up at least two levels and Bendtner is probably the biggest question mark! VfL Wolfsburg – Formation, Key Players, Regulars, Expected Line up and Tactics This information is a vital part of our Analysis Product. Visit us here to buy our Analysis for the upcoming Wolfsburg games!

[Rational Football Season Previews]

Re: Rational Football Season Previews [h=3]Borussia Dortmund[/h] The Second Power in Germany It took a club with a huge fan base, a hard working management and a genius Coach Klopp in order to create a strong second power next to Bayern München. History has proven that Bayern likes to show muscles and money to back down any club that tries to compete with them in the short to medium run. Despite losing a lot of key players in the past and struggling with injuries last season, Dortmund could establish themselves to the top 3 positions. The club is profitable again and is looking to sell more of its stock to generate money that will be used to make the club run without any debts. The management is working professional, the aim is to improve turnover and profit season by season and keep being a strong side next to Bayern München. Rational Football Statement: Bye Key Player Once Again! Borussia Dortmund is running through the process every company and every club is going to run through. The more success the team has, the more interesting the key distributors get for the big companies or clubs. This year Dortmund had to give away Lewandowski to Bayern which is definitely extra bitter after already losing Götze to Bayern. However, Jürgen Klopp proved to compensate missing key starters year by year and it is in the Dortmund philosophy to make any player better within the team. As a result, we can expect other players to step up more and this was already kind of indicated in the German Cup game against Stuttgarter Kickers were the 1:4 result was looking much better than the actual game was. Still, Aubameyang could use this game to prove that he could take over some of the scoring responsibility. While he was regularly used on the wings with Lewandowski starting, he could now bring in a new element in attack. Dortmund does not only want to rely on the current players to replace Lewandowski and as a result took some decent amount of money in the hand again. The aim is to keep qualifying for Champions League which assure them making a decent amount of money which allow them to grow steadily as a club and as a brand! Dortmund – The Squad Dortmund is going to replace Lewandowski with the two arrivals Adrian Ramos who knows the league and scored 16 goals (8 assists) last season and Ciro Immobile from FC Turin. Almost 30 million Euros were cleverly invested in two players. Adrian Ramos will help Dortmund straight away with his skills and buys Immobile the time he needs to adjust to the Dortmund football. Even Lewandowski needed one season to get used to the football Dortmund plays. Alternatively, Aubameyang can also play in attack. Manuel Friedrich (34) plus Santana (Schalke) left the club and Dortmund bought talented Ginter (20) for 10 million Euros. With Hummels, Sokratis, Subotic and Ginter Dortmund have four strong center backs. This position should not cause an issue. The qualities of the remaining players of Dortmund are obvious and well known. On top of those the team can possibly count on Sahin and Gündogan coming back at some stage in this season. Gündogan is expected to hit the team training a couple of times next week, while Sahin is currently running without any issues. Both players have huge qualities on the center midfield position and can boost the team a lot when in form. Overall the squad has many alternatives and a lot of quality. Despite some missing’s due to the long WC they were in great early form against Bayern in the Super Cup and were proving their quality in an even game beating Kickers 1:4 in the Cup. Dortmund is certainly capable of doing some serious damage in the league and if all their long term injuries from last season recover they will have an impressive strength in the first eleven, but also on the bench! Borussia Dortmund – Formation, Key Players, Regulars, Expected Line up and Tactics This information is a vital part of our Analysis Product. Visit us here to buy our Analysis for the upcoming Dortmund games!

[Rational Football Season Previews]

Re: Rational Football Season Previews [h=3]Bayer 04 Leverkusen[/h] Mr. High Speed! When a club takes money into hands for a coach we are talking serious. Former Paderborn (German Bundesliga 2) and Red Bull Salzburg coach Roger Schmidt has caught attention especially during his period in Salzburg. One of the games people in Germany will have in mind is the test game between Salzburg and Bayern München in which Salzburg beat their opponents with 3:0. An astonishing result even though it was only a test game, coach Guardiola tried defending with three at the back and Bayern was missing players such as Lahm, Ribery, Robben and Schweinsteiger. Salzburg played a football that was all about high pressing and dangerously paced attacks. Pep Guardiola was asked whether he ever faced an opponent pressing this high and he replied “not during my coaching career”. Sir Schmidt is now making the next step in his career going for a club that is generally known for its patience and its chilled fans. Rational Football Statement: Make The Office Guy Be Usain Bolt! Now, Leverkusen is not known to be a slow team. However, during the period Hyypia was coaching them and also before this time the team was certainly looking for a great balance. Occasionally the team had games where the game went pretty quick back and forth. However, most of the time this happened because involved opponents that were playing open and offensive football such as Hoffenheim f.e. or teams that we overall struggling. With Schmidt, the team will possibly have to go through a learning process. He expects the team to be twice steps quicker when pressing and the whole dynamic of the Leverkusen can be expected to change. This was visible in the game against Copenhagen (2:3 away win) during the CL qualifiers. However, this game should be enjoyed carefully as Copenhagen and their coach Solbakken were struggling. Solbakken has been coaching Köln and during the games Rational Football observed parallels in the way both his former Köln team and Copenhagen were playing. The system is based on high discipline and requires high IQ players. Once Solbakken struggles with his teams, he does so in a big way and the result is highlighted it. However, we still believe that Leverkusen will be more aggressive in terms of pressing and doing so will run into the risk of finding themselves out of balance in midfield or defense from time to time. This is a process which the team will need a bit time for! Leverkusen – The Squad The team has lost two players with Sidney Sam (Schalke) on the right wing and Emre Can (Liverpool). Both players were regular starters and can be described as weaknesses. The club reacted on the departures with a big transfer of Hakan Calhanoglu for 14.5 million Euros. The twenty years old German with Turkish origins has already shown his big qualities in the CL qualification with two great assists. Josip Drmic was bought from Nürnberg for a decent sum of 6.8 million Euros. He was one of the key players in keeping Nürnberg’s hopes to not relegate till the end. Drmic is certainly a good alternative to Kiessling despite being another type of striker. Wendell from Gremio was brought for the left back position and seems to suit greatly in the quick paced offensive football that Roger Schmidt wants to play. He can be seen as a 1 to 1 replacement for Can, although we have to mention that Wendell cannot cover the midfield position like him. Further transfers to create some depth in the team were Papadopoulos on loan from Schalke for the center back position. He still needs some time after his long injury, but is already joining the team training and could be a real alternative next to Ömer Toprak. Youngster Tin Jedvaj came on loan from Rom and has been impressing Rational Football in his CL game against Copenhagen. The 18-years old covered the right back position with a lot of pace and his passing accuracy has been amazing that day. Overall, Leverkusen is going into the 2014/2014 season with a very strong team. It seems like the management could replace Can and Karim Bellarabi shows good signs that last season on loan to Braunschweig helped him to develop further in order to replace Sam on a good level. It is rare to end a team review fully positive and Rational Football would like to point out the only issue it sees for Leverkusen this season. Against Copenhagen Rolfes and Castro were covering the defensive midfield positions. In a very offensive minded team, after losing the ball both players and the team as a general struggled to get behind the ball quick enough. Especially Rolfes looked too slow and it remains to be seen to which level he keep up with the game. Luckily Leverkusen has some quality waiting to come in with the likes of Lars Bender who is back in team training after a thigh injury. If he stays away from injuries he could be a key in the midfield position with his hard working and hard running attributes he might be just the right link between defense and offense! Bayer 04 Leverkusen – Formation, Key Players, Regulars, Expected Line up and Tactics This information is a vital part of our Analysis Product. Visit us here to buy our Analysis for the upcoming Leverkusen games!

[Rational Football Season Previews]

Re: Rational Football Season Previews Schalke 04 Jens Keller Schalke is one of this clubs that could not get internal peace. The ambitions last season were to compete with Dortmund and it was a few weeks into the season when manager Heldt had to change this aims. Jens Keller was doubted many times as the right coach, but a strong second half season under difficult circumstances with a lot of injured players assured that he stayed in the coaching role. Going into the season and facing several muscle injuries the club changed it policies controlling deeper how players are threating their bodies. A regular control at the dentist has been established in the rules and the club is trying hard to avoid the big number of injuries they faced last season. After a weak start by failing in the first round of the cup against Dynamo Dresden pressure is right on the coach again. Dynamo started the season earlier, played in front of a great crowd and Schalke missed some players so that there are some rational reasons to the result. However, starting the season with a failure certainly is not what Jens Keller has been looking for and the media loves to push pressure straight into his face every time which is certainly proving that Schalke as a club cannot manage to look strong all together when results are not achieved. Rational Football Statement: Finding solutions against strong defending teams! Schalke had regular problems to create goal chances against teams that were defending deep. They are looking uninspired and too slow in the way they are playing to create chances. At the same time they brought themselves into big trouble either through individual mistakes or losing ball possession while going forward. Jens Keller has to find solutions for his team that is expected to end up top 5. They will face more teams that are looking to counter attack against them then teams that are going to make the game against them. In the following, we will have a look at the squad and see which changes had been made to help the team to be more creative and agile in the front end. Schalke– The Squad No matter how many reasons for critique can be found against Coach Keller, there is one huge positive development in the Schalke squad. The team is younger than ever with an average age of 23.84. Only Huntelaar (31) is above 30 and injured Farfan (29) is one of the most experienced field players. As a result it is expectable that this team will not be constant and have some element of variance in their performances. It will be up to key players like Höwedes, Kevin Prince Boateng and Huntelaar to deliver constant high performances in order to push young talents which Schalke definitely holds in their rows. Youngster Draxler (20) is under pressure to deliver more constant strong performances and with the likes of Meyer (18), Goretzka (19), Kolasinac (21), Kaan Ayhan (19) and even Clemens (23) there a lot of young guns which are getting many minutes. Adam Szalai who was not happy to be benched behind Huntelaar got replaced by Moting (Mainz regular). He can not only cover the box, but also play behind Huntelaar or on the wings making Schalke more flexible. Papadopoulos (center back) went to Leverkusen on loan which raised some question marks, but it is believed that the relationship between him and the coach was bad. Unnerstall and Hildebrand (goalkeepers) left. Giefer was bought to create a serious competition with Fährmann on the GK position. Rational Football believes that buying Sidney Sam for 2.5 million Euros was definitely the steal of the season. Sam is quick on the foot, got a decent sense to position him behind the defense in time and can score as well. Pressure will be right on him as Farfan will miss the whole first half of the season at least! Overall the quality of the team has to be seen enough to surely settle top 10 and when the mix of experienced and young players works out Schalke should have all what it needs to get close to their aim of qualifying for Champions League again. We mentioned all the risks and the work that the team has to do, but we once again underline that this young team comes along with a lot of potential as well! Schalke 04 – Formation, Key Players, Regulars, Expected Line up and Tactics This information is a vital part of our Analysis Product. Visit us here to buy our Analysis for the upcoming Schalke games!

[Rational Football Season Previews]

Re: Rational Football Season Previews Borussia Mönchengladbach European Business Back! Gladbach is one of the most popular football clubs in Germany without doubt. In the 1970 Gladbach was running over the league with quick and paced young players which resulted in their nickname the “Fohlenelf”. However, between 2004/2005 and 2009/2010 season things did not go smooth including one season in Bundesliga 2. It was Lucien Favre who joined the club in the 2010/2011 season and assured to save them from relegation. While this was impressive because Gladbach was sitting on the last seat until the 30rd round, it was more impressive how Favre formed the team into an established top 8 team in Bundesliga. The following seasons with a 4th, 8th and 6th position raised hopes in Gladbach. The management around Max Eberl established a good transfer policy. Other than Luuk De Jong they were able to deliver the coach players he wants and he can transfer his philosophy to. Rational Football Statement: Great Fans – Great Coach! Lucien Favre is a very good analyst of the game and the attention to detail it shows is something we from Rational Football admire. Whether it is attention to detail in positioning, attention from where to attack the opponent on certain positions or attention to the perfect timing for finish and passing, Lucien Favre is definitely the man. He has lost players like Reus along the way, but in comparison to his past clubs he was delivered new quality players to work with. With a great support in their home stadium and the painstakingly work Favre is delivering week in week out, Gladbach is definitely gonna bring joy to the club regularly this season! Gladbach– The Squad Gladbach replaced Ter Stegen who went to Barcelona with Yann Sommer fom Basel. Luuk de Jong who did not fit the way Gladbach played too much left the team to PSV. Other than a few talents, the last departure worth to mention was certainly Juan Arango. The fans loved the dangerous left foot that certainly had an amazing shooting quality. However, as Favre wants to speed the game going forward, the club had to make a cut and let the talented old Arango go to Mexico. Rational Football believes that manager Eberl was certainly able to improve the squad with the transfers they made. For Juan Arango, Gladbach now holds Traore for the left wing that came for free from competitor Stuttgart. The likes of André Hahn (Augsburg) and Thorgan Hazard are further alternatives for the offensive midfield positions. The transfer policy was definitely focused on getting some quality, but also weight in the squad which was visible with the free signing of Fabian Johnson from Hoffenheim. He is a very polyvalent player who can be used on almost all positions, especially close to the side lines. Overall the squad seems pretty well designed to the football Favre wants to play. There is no real box player in the team and we can expect quick paced players with good finishing qualities like Herrmann, Hahn, Hrgota to cover the striker positions as long as Max Kruse is out with an injury. With quick wingers and a creative midfield player like Raffael or Hazard the team looks to have all it needs to play a great counter attack football. The most important question for Favre to prove an answer for is how to balance the team in home games when they are expected to make the game. The role of the defensive midfield players and the opening of the game by the center backs will be very vital here to keep a strong balance and don’t allow opponents to apply too much pressure on Gladbach. The offense will be expected to make quick deep runs and losing the ball while going forward will make it difficult for Gladbach to get all players behind the ball in time. Having said that, it was one of the reasons they gave Arango away in order to have another quick player who can get behind the ball quick and assure the correct balance. Gladbach definitely established the team and will be fighting to develop the team further to keep them within European Competition ranks. Mönchengladbach – Formation, Key Players, Regulars, Expected Line up and Tactics This information is a vital part of our Analysis Product. Visit us here to buy our Analysis for the upcoming Gladbach games!

[Rational Football Season Previews]

Hello Dear Punterslounge friends, a few might still know me from my past activity which fair enough was a few years ago. I always enjoyed posting Bundesliga previews and bets on here and today I am coming back with a full set of season previews for German Bundesliga. Hope you enjoy it all, also check our our Rational Football Blog where we post a free Analysis on a specific topic each Monday!

[Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th]

Re: Quarter-Final - France v Germany > Friday July 4th Germany vs France Quarter Finals First of all thank you all for the great feedback that I received after my last analysis in the USA vs Germany game. It is quite some work to put my thoughts and way of thinking about the games into words, but I am glad that some people enjoy it. In August I hope to publish my website which will contain paid services as well as regular free posts like the one I posted few days ago. Enough said about myself, let me write about the game which everyone in my home town is really looking forward and I am sure most parts of Germany will be excited about the game. In this game we have two teams that started the tournament with opposite expectations. While there was little to no hopes for France to come close to the title, everyone expects Germany to finally win a title with this talented and experienced squad. We live in a moody kind of world and it is interesting how football is reflecting our global changes (quicker, faster, better, more entertaining). France did impress with their group stage performances and did fairly okay against Nigeria raising expectations in the country and bringing a positive group feeling in the squad. In comparison, ratings about Germany are all critical. Players like Thomas Müller complain that their recent World Cup success has not been valued enough by public, while the public states that the way Germany played in certain games was just not allowing seeing the performances as positive, although the results were. There is no black or white in this discussion which allows a lot of people to state different opinions. I personally like to see things from a broad perspective. Players like Khedira, Klose, Schweinsteiger came into the tournament after injuries. Götze had a season with regular small injuries, missing pre-season work out as well. A potential game changer like Özil came into the tournament out of form. Now, we can blame Löw for his team selection (why Klose, when u can get a fit Kiessling for example). But we can also see that he believes in those players and also believes that they will gradually improve from game to game throughout the tournament. The discussion about Lahm on defensive midfield or right back position is pure bullshit. The reason why Löw is doing this is simply lying in the fact that Schweinsteiger and Khedira cannot start a game together to play 90-120 minutes. We are missing both Benders on DMID because of injuries as well and I do not want to see how people would blame Löw to start Kramer on this position. As a result a combination of Lahm/Schweini or Lahm/Khedira is logical. You never want to run in the situation that Schweini+Khedira get tired and you have to change your whole DMID during the game. I understand people who blame Löw to not choose playing Großkreutz or Durm instead of Mustafi (who are no longer an option because of injury). Fair point! In the final training today Großkreutz was tested on the right back position. Many people also ask for Schürrle to start, but I think we want to win the tournament and winning a game means leading the game when the whistle is blown for the last time! Both Schürrle and Podolski, even Klose are capable of giving Germany a huge boost from the bench against a possibly rather tired opponent. The recent games have shown that France is not looking for too much ball possession. Against Nigeria they were not dominating the game, whereas Germany was running more than 65% ball possession once again against Algeria. This trend is indicating that we could expect Germany to make the game and France defending with their intensive, collective work against the ball to seek for quick pace counter attacks via Valbuena, Matuidi, Pogba and maybe also Griezmann (who I think would be a better choice to Benzema). If this trend will transfer to reality in the game, I think Germany will quite struggle. Both Hummels and Mertesacker can get problems when we defend too high and lose the ball going forward. Thomas Müller was stating in an interview that he hopes that France will try to go forward more than Algeria so that Germany also finds some space to break when they win the ball in midfield. I think the likelihood of this happening is definitely higher against France than against Algeria. France, although not having too much ball possession, allowed Nigeria to break a few times. It never happened in a situation without balance in defense, but there was space which the likes of Özil, Götze and Müller could exploit. Tactical Summary: Overall, no matter how exactly the line ups are going to look like, I expect a game where Germany will have more ball possession than France, but ironically get most of their chances after France loses the ball when owning it. I expect the French team to exactly do the same. They will not concede too many chances when Germany is circulating the ball. We lack active left/right backs to be really dangerous when we circulate the ball against a defensive balanced team. I rather think that France will close the gaps clever and wait to the gain the ball back to go for their own dangerous breaks. If we expect Germany to hold the ball most of the times with ball possession resulting in a few dangerous chances, but the risk of France to counter attack risky, we have an indication for a tactical issue which a lot of people mention these days. Germany will have to be really careful and smart with the ball to avoid these situations. This will require that the passing quality of the midfield increases heavily compared to the last game! Betting verdict: Germany to win 2.75 (36.36%) Draw 3.20 (31.25%) France to win 2.81 (35.79%) The bookmakers expect a very close game and both teams are almost rated even. Having a look back at my tactical analysis, it is quite easy to spot why. Both coaches know about the relevant strengths of both teams. Small mistakes and efficiency in front of goal will decide the game today. I think both teams are far from acting perfect over 90 minutes, which given the conditions and pressure is normal. As a result, I expect this game to be really close with the draw over 90 minutes looking most appealing to me. If France tries to make the game most of the times, Germany will get a lot of space and will certainly score goals and at the same time Germany making their passing mistakes from the Algeria game will allow France to get big goal chances and make them score. The importance of the game speaks for a more careful approach by both teams, but this game can go nuts really quick and we may see a huge game with a lot of goal chances! My Score Tip: 2:2 (odds 15 at Tipico - equivalent to a likelyhood of 6,66%) Cheers

[FC Bayern München v Real Madrid > Tuesday April 29th]

Re: FC Bayern München v Real Madrid > Tuesday April 29th FC Bayern vs Real Madrid It has been a weird first game between Real Madrid and Bayern München. A game that was totally dominated by Bayern München in terms of ball possession, created a lot of critics in the press and especially Pep Guardiola felt the need of explaining himself after the game. He was pretty confident about the way he lets his team play football and also underlined how damn difficult it is to reach this far in this tough competiton called Champions League. However, he also realized what his team was missing in the first leg game and saying so just shows how objective Guardiola analyses the situation. Social Media platforms were booming with people blaming ball possession football, claiming that the result is what is most important. Both Real Madrid and Chelsea, who approached their half finals very defensively and counter attacked based, seem to prove that defending and playing score orientated is more valuable than playing “good” football. Before giving away my personal opinion about which philosophy of football I personally prefer, I want to talk about the first leg game. To analyze a game, you can always just look at the game itself, but also try to create a broader view by comparing games. Whole England and Spain, especially Man Utd and Barcelona fans keep asking for great Jürgen Klopp to join and coach their respective teams. Jürgen Klopp likes to play a mixture of defending strongly and playing quick vertical football. But it was also Klopp who lost against Real in their away game with a score of 3:0. He tries to defend strong and not hold the ball too long and try to go for the quick counter attacks themselves. Of course Dortmund had misses, but this score has impressed me a lot and as someone who is only following Bundesliga closely I recognized that Real Madrid had made the next step as a team during this season. Real Madrid with their Italian coach Carlo Ancelotti has an impressive squad this season. Casillas (no words needed to express his qualities), Carvajal (amazing development in Germany and keeps the level in Spain), Pepe and Ramos (strong and aggressive defenders), Coentrao (very offensive minded and with the huge sprint for the 1:0 assist), Xabi Alonso – Modric – Isco (technically strong and great passing midfeld, really important for the counter attack passes), Ronaldo – Benzema – Di Maria (quick paced, high individual quality, strong finishing quality). This first eleven is capable of defending strong, attacking through the wings also with the help of their full backs and also hold the ball themselves at times with the strong technical midfield. With the likes of Illarramendi, Bale and Varane, Real Madrid also got three players on from the bench that did not cause any decrease in overall quality. Having a look at this qualities and comparing it to the post match statistics will explain why most of the Bayern players were proud after the game. Robben was praising his team’s effort and the look in the commentators face was already explaining what would follow in the press and social media platforms. How can a team be proud of 64% Ball Possession, 16 to 9 total shot attemps (5 off target, 11 on target, 6 attempts blocked), 15 to 3 corners, 840 to 410 passes, 699 to 272 passes completed (all stats taken from uefa.com). Well as an objective person that has not seen the game; I would be overwhelmed by those statistics and would say that Bayern has been impressive and that the score of 1:0 is not fair. So why did Bayern not win? This question leads to the aspect many people criticize. The ->Quality

[Bundesliga - 9th - 11th August]

Re: Bundesliga - 9th - 11th August Bundesliga Start: FC Bayern München vs Borussia Mönchengladbach When I have tingly fingers I know it is going to happen again. Bundesliga 1 is about to start in a few hours a season many people are looking forward to! Pre Season Bayern: A lot has happened ever since the last whistle was blown in a Bundesliga 1 game this year. Bayern won the tripple and introduced a new era with Pep Guardiola. A logical consequence was that Mario Gomez had to leave the club as his qualities on the pitch were expected to not suit well to the football Bayern wants to celebrate on the pitch. Whilst Petersen was sold to Bremen, (he was on loan before) another highly talented player Emre Can did leave the club towards Leverkusen to make the next step in his career and get more minutes in Bundesliga. Bayern has made good experiences loaning players to Leverkusen in the past (Toni Kroos) and has included a "buy back" clause in the deal which leaves the door open to get an established Bundesliga player back in the squad some day. However, it was not Petersen and Emre Can that media was covering the last weeks, but the transfers of Mario Götze and Thiago Alcántara. There are and were rumours that Neymar was Guardiola's first choice, but after discussions with Uli Hoeneß the club decided that they do not want to run through another riskful South America transfer after bad experiences with players like Sosa and Breno. Götze is not really comparable to Neymar, but he has proven that he has an edge playing football in Bundesliga 1 and has already gained a lot of experience during Borussia Dortmunds CL campaign. During the final press conference in Riva del Garda Pep did surprise quite a lot journalists when he answered a question about a possible Thiago transfers with the words: "We have to play six competitions, I need the full squad. We need the special talents of Thiago. I think he will be good for us." "We need the special talents of Thiago", is the most interesting piece here. A tripple winning Bayern side with players such as Schweinsteiger, Kroos, Ribery, Robben, Mandzukic, Müller and Götze does need the special talents of Thiago? This sentence really caught my attention and having not seen much of Thiago I was waiting every second to get a read on what Guardiola meant with this. It did not take long before I could witness what Guardiola meant. During the Audi Cup Thiago indicated what additional qualities he can bring to the squad. He has got a great eye and touch on the ball for passes in the area between center backs and goalkeeper. Those kind of passes were pretty rare last season where Bayern mostly tried to exploit defenses on the wings to get the ball in the box in different ways. Either by crossing for headers (Mandzukic and Müller being first aims), or bringing the ball in low to the first post or back to the penalty point. In short, Bayern has added another possibility to create chances making them even more unpredictable in terms of defending their attacks. The downside of having Thiago in the first line up was visible during the 2:4 Super Cup loss against Dortmund. Thiago played as the only defensive midfield player, adding the strengths mentioned above, but making the Bayern side more vulnerable defensively. They looked weak on defending breaks and Thiago gave away some big possessions when going forward. Unlike journalists or Bayern haters, I still enjoy this "downside" of Thiago with care. Not only did Dortmund had some element of luck involved in their goals, Bayern did also miss established players like Neuer, Martinez, Ribery and Schweinsteiger in their line up which does not give us the chance to see the final potential of the team running with Thiago. It will remain to be seen how Thiago can link up when Bayern will start with their best possible line up and all players will be close to their best match fitness. Pep Guardiola's biggest task will be to find the right balance in his line ups and try to avoid using players on positions they simply do not feel comfortable with. Best example is Mandzukic, who does not seem to be very pleased so far if we have a look at his body language in the last games. He was used on the wings and had to cover a couple of tasks which he seem to have not enjoyed. However, the discussions about Lewandowski and his possible transfer to Bayern could be the reason for his behaviour as well, so that most people could have a wrong view on the Pep and Mandzukic relationship here. The Game for Bayern: For the game against Gladbach Badstuber, Götze and Luiz Gustavo (officially knee problems, but linked with many teams and might leave the team) are not available. Thiago is doubtful with a flu. I do not really want to play a guessing game on the line up as Bayern has got more than a handful of options. I will try two line ups that I think might be likely: Neuer - Lahm - Boateng - Dante - Alaba - Martinez - Kroos - Schweinsteiger - Ribery - Robben - Mandzukic (Müller) or Neuer - Lahm - Martinez - Dante - Alaba - Schweinsteiger - Ribery - Kroos - Müller (Shaqiri) - Robben - Mandzukic (Müller) Pre Season Gladbach: Whilst a lot has happened around Bayern, Gladbach stayed under the radar of the big teams doing their solid work to setup a competetive squad out this season. Selling Igor de Camargo to Hoffenheim and back up Leckie to FSV Frankfurt is not a big downgrade whereas Raffael and Max Kruse are very promising transfers for Gladbach. Raffael did already work together with coach Favre in Berlin, where they had a very successful season together and both know what they expect from each other. Max Kruse had an amazing season in Freiburg where the young squad celebrated great passing and countering football suiting Kruse very well. Favre will love to have him in his arsenal. If we remember back to the times where Reus was playing for Gladbach, they were used to defend very tough leaving very few chances for their opponents to get between the lines (which Guardiola praised in the pre game conference as well). Based on this defending they started quick counter attacks with their technically strong midfielders (Arango) and fast attacking options (Herrmann, Reus). This should be again an option with players like Raffael and Kruse joining the team, whilst it was mostly not possible last season as Luuk de Jong took over the striker position interpretating the role way different than Reus did in the past. The Game for Gladbach: The expected line up for Gladbach seems to be the following: ter Stegen - Daems (Wendt) - Dominguez - Stranzl - Jantschke - Herrmann (Rupp) - Nordtveidt (Kramer) - Xhaka - Arango (Younes) - Kruse - Raffael In extreme cases Gladbach could basically be playing 4-6-0 to create a full midfield and make it hard for Bayern to find gaps and create chances, whereas when winning the ball they hold enough technically strong players (Arango, Herrmann, Raffael, Kruse) to introduce counter attacks. The speed of Herrmann and Kruse could help to spot some space on the break for Gladbach whereas Arango and Raffael will be mainly responsible for the passing. Another option Gladbach holds to score goals is by set pieces. Raffael and Arango are real weapons on that so that Bayern must not only be careful to avoid dangerous counters but also avoid stopping counters by fouls. Verdict: Not only on paper Bayern are the favourites. Bookies did setup the main line -2.5/+2.5 when opening the prices on handicaps which suggested Bayern should be winning by something around 2 or 3 goals difference based on statistics. Having beat Gladbach 5:1 in 60 minutes during the Audi Cup did indicate Bayerns strengths and the danger Gladbach will face. However, Favre has always proven to be able to setup a team that is tough to play against and he has done that successful against Bayern as well. Last four results between the sides were 1:1 in Gladbach, 3:3 in Gladbach, 1:0 in München and 0:1 in München. Those results indicate why Pep Guardiola is not throwing out empty phrases when he says that "Gladbach is defending very strong allowing no space between the lines". We will be facing a very interesting game between two uneven sides on paper, but with two teams that will try to exploit each other in terms of tactics and gain an edge, even if it might turn out to be a very small one for Gladbach. The market seems to be believing that Gladbach can get an edge and the handicap line has moved quite a lot, the main lines are now -2/+2. Betting wise I had no value when I started writing my article, but with the big move on Gladbach I am getting to an area where looking at a Bayern bet might get interesting. I see Bayern a little stronger than last season although I expect a few surprises will happen against them because of the adjustment period the players have to go through and the new ideas they are facing by Pep Guardiola. This could be a chance for Gladbach together with the fact that not all the players are at their very best level yet for Bayern (Schweinsteiger, Kroos, Martinez to name a few). Giving some respect to the move by the market and taking into account not optimal team news for Bayern I will still need better price to get involved on the Bayern side! Hope we can all enjoy the game, good season to everyone! Cheers 1907zico

[German Antepost - 2012-13]

Re: German Antepost - 2012-13 FC Bayern München Squad Overview based on primary 4-2-3-1 formation: Goalkeeper Position: Manuel Neuer – Important player Tom Starke – Back up goalkeeper Defense Position: Right Back: Phillip Lahm – Important player Jerome Boateng – Back up Rafinha – Second back up Center Back: Badstuber – Definite Starter Dante/Boateng – Competing Starters Daniel van Buyten – Back up Left Back: David Alaba – Starter Emre Can – Back up Contento – Second back up Midfield Position: Defensive Midfield: Schweinsteiger – Definite Starter when fit Gustavo/Kroos – Competing Starters Tymoschuk – Back up Offensive Midfield: Kroos/Müller/Shaqiri – Competing Starters Left Wing: Franck Ribery – Very important player Shaqiri – Big talent waiting behind top player Right Wing: Arjen Robben – Important player Shaqiri – Big talent waiting behind top player Thomas Müller – Potential starter back up Mitchell Weiser – back up Attack: Mario Gomez – Important player Mandzukic – Competing Starter Pizarro – Back up Pre-season start injury situation: Alaba, Rafinha, Buyten and Gomez are going to miss out the first game whereas Bastian Schweinsteiger will be part of the squad, but due to not being at his best fitness level he will not be a starter. Ribery is in doubt due to injury problems. On the above listing of the players per position you can see how the missing will be compensated. The expected line up for the first game is: Neuer – Lahm – Dante – Badstuber – Emre Can – Kroos – Gustavo – Müller – Robben – Ribery (Shaqiri) – Mandzukic The strongest possible line up during the season is expected to be: Neuer – Lahm – Dante/Boateng – Badstuber – Alaba – Schweinsteiger – Gustavo (Kroos) – Müller (Kroos) – Ribery – Robben – Gomez (Mandzukic) Differences to last season: Bayern München’s management was mainly criticized for a too small squad last season. This was seen as one of the points leading to Bayern München finishing the season without a title. As a result, the management has been working on giving the team some quality in depth. On the striker position Bayern transferred in huge Bundesliga experienced Pizarro from Bremen and Mandzukic, a hard working flexible striker from Wolfsburg. This will result in big competition for the only single striker position which was mainly covered by Gomez last season. The coach will now have the chance to rest Gomez and maybe also leave Gomez out for tactical reasons bringing in the more flexible Mandzukic. The same adjustment has been done for the wing position where Shaqiri is turning on the competition against Ribery and Robben, who both were normally in stone written names in the Bayern line up. Again Bayern also added further quality on the center back position by signing Dante who convinced with his good overview and passing for Mönchengladbach last season forming one of the strongest defenses in Bundesliga last year. Before the start of the season the management is trying to add further quality on the defensive midfield position and the name mentioned here on daily, if not hour basis is Javier Martinez from Atletico Bilbao. Both the player and Bayern München agreed, Martinez accepted a lower salary offer in order to make the overall investment cheaper for Bayern (40 million Euro fixed buy-out clause) but the current issue is based on the high tax part which Bayern does not want to cover themselves fully. Atletico’s management remains stubborn and the realization of the transfer seems in doubt status quo. Overall seen, the team was not weakened but strengthened further compared to last season which should be mainly seen positive. Of course the chance of players being unhappy on bench is given especially with the high number of egos in the squad like Ribery, Robben, Gomez and more. However, if coach Heynckes can manage to create an atmosphere in which every player does see priority in the team success the added quality to the squad can only result in even more positive results for the club.

[Portugal v Spain > June 27]

Re: Portugal v Spain > June 27

I did notice a big difference in shots on target' stats for some of these games on different websites. I wonder how there can be any argument - when is a shot on target NOT a shot on target?

When the ball on target is not defineable as a shot but as a random ball maybe. Or if the ball on target is not worth to be considered a shot/finish. You can define a lot on these things :)

[Germany - Bundesliga - 20-22 January]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 20-22 January Langerek is not a real weakening compared to Weidenfeller, especially if we consider Dortmund's strong defense there would be not a big impact. Götze miss is a blow, but Dortmund's way of play is definitely not cut on a single player as visible right now. Could not understand the market moving on the Dortmund price and got them at 2.00

[Germany - Bundesliga - 20-22 January]

Re: Germany - Bundesliga - 20-22 January

Hamburg improved under Fink. They showed really good performances. Striker Petric is doubtful. Dortmund will miss Götze who is injured. Klopp said that keeper Weidenfäller is doubtful and second goal keeper out with an injury. So going on Hamurg AH+0,5 and maybe on both to score is ok.

Hamburg improved yes. Really good performances, not yet! Result wise they have been unbeaten yes, but way too many draws for two reason. Their offense play is yet predictable over the wings with rather weak crosses and their defense row has yet to improve to allow less big chances. Drobny, Hamburgs goalkeeper, had too much to do in almost all games which indicates their high risk at the back. Dortmund, even when missing Götze and Weidenfeller, has more quality than Hamburg. Lewandowski, Großkreutz, Kagawa and Kuba come along with more goal danger than Lam, Jansen, Son and Guerrero from which I think only Jansen and Guerrero are capable of scoring. This makes Hamburg more predictable in offense than Dortmund, and if we keep in mind how strong Dortmund is defensively (lowest number of goals conceded in the league) then we can imagine how difficult it will be for Hamburg to score. Is it possible? Yes it is.. but the likelyhood that Dortmund will create better chances than Hamburg (having created most goal chances of the whole league) is almost enough to place a bet on Dortmund. If I get involved in this game, it will be on the Dortmund side. Hamburg will be improved for the rest of the season, but this is not the game they have to win to finish the season acceptable to good. ;)