Samba_SamPa
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Red Sox (-1.5) to bt Orioles - 5pts @ 2.45 Bet365 The Red Sox players have enjoyed success against Chen in the past - .317 over 145 ABs - are in good offensive form, and face an Orioles side boasting a decent injury list. Angels (-1.5) to bt Rangers - 6pts @ 2.40 Bet365 Angels (-3.5) to bt Rangers - 2pts @ 4.90 Bet365 The Angels liked facing Colby Lewis last season - he was 0-4 from 4 starts against them with an ERA North of 11 (!!), and whilst the Rangers batters have the same number of hits against Wilson as the Angels' do against Lewis, it has taken them almost 25% more ABs to accrue them Pirates & Giants - ml double - 4pts @ 3.82 Opposing the De La Rosas both. I saw more of Rubby than I wanted to for Boston last season, whilst Jorge had nothing short of a nightmare last game.
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Was caught out by the teatime slate of games on Thursday, and then fell asleep watching the box early last night :eyes Been through the BvP stats for tonight's games, and the only bet I have put on so far is a multiple on the 4 with the best sample size that show a tendency to produce runs. 0.5pt yankee (5.5pts total staked) with Bet365 Over 9 Tigers v Indians @ 2.05 Over 9 Red Sox v Orioles @ 2.30 Over 8 Cardinals v Brewers @ 2.00 Over 8 Rangers v Angels @ 2.05
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting
Expensive night. Royals didn't win, and neither did either the Nats or the O's. As for Seattle.... not a team to be backing to cover a handicap, as I knew, and said, and still did :eyes 27-49-2 Staked 256pts Returned 257.47pts P/L +1.47ptsRoyals (-1.5) to bt Twins - 6pts @ 2.30 Bet365 Royals (-2.5) to bt Twins - 2pts @ 3.20 Bet365 Jimenez to get 7 Ks & Orioles to bt Blue Jays - 2pts @ 4.00 Bet365 Fister to get 4 Ks & Nationals to bt Cardinals - 3pts @ 3.30 Paddy Mariners (-1.5) to bt Astros - 4.5pts @ 2.35 Bet365 Mariners (-3.5) to bt Astros - 1pt @ 4.75 Bet365 -
Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Royals (-1.5) to bt Twins - 6pts @ 2.30 Bet365 Royals (-2.5) to bt Twins - 2pts @ 3.20 Bet365 KC are 7-1 at home, and they welcomed to chance to get back to baseball, after the UFC series v Oakland, against Minnesota the last 2 nights. They stretched out to an easy 7-1 win on Monday, and showed their resolve in a come-from-behind 6-5 win last night. Tonight they get to face a pitcher in Pelfrey whom their batters see well - hitting at a rate just over .400 through 87 ABs against him. Jimenez to get 7 Ks & Orioles to bt Blue Jays - 2pts @ 4.00 Bet365 Jimenez took the W ten days ago in a clash with Sanchez at Camden Yards, tossing 7 innings of 1-hit ball, striking out 8 and walking just 1. That shouldn't be seen as anything other than him continuing his previous good record against these Blue Jays batters in my opinion, and, given it is a large sample size of 164 ABs that have them hitting just .177 against him, he should be backed to continue that record when re-opposing in Canada tonight. He continued his good form at Fenway last time, but didn't last 4 innings as he had some control issues and ended up getting ejected for hitting Ortiz. Fister to get 4 Ks & Nationals to bt Cardinals - 3pts @ 3.30 Paddy Fister isn't a big strikeout pitcher, but the line is low and the price is good with this one of Paddy's Daily Doubles. I expect Washington to win another tight one against the Cards, and providing his pitch count doesn't get inflated too early, I can easily see him going at least 7 innings. He tossed 4 Ks in 6.2 innings against the Phillies last time, and I like the price as being more than fair for him only having to throw the same amount again tonight in a Nats win. Mariners (-1.5) to bt Astros - 4.5pts @ 2.35 Bet365 Mariners (-3.5) to bt Astros - 1pt @ 4.75 Bet365 It's hard to have much confidence in the Mariners offense to supplement a strong pitching performance any time, but I'll have a play on them doing so tonight. That being on the basis of Happ's excellent record against the Astros as a team, and also against the current Astros batters individually, teamed with Cruz's and Cano's success in their previous encounters with Houston's Hernandez. The current Astros roster has only 2 hits off Happ in 29 ABs, whilst Happ has a 2-0 record in 3 starts against his old team with an ERA of just North of 2. Cano meanwhile is 11-26 against Hernandez, and Cruz has went yard 3 times in just 18 ABs against him. I didn't think there was any value in the 11/5 quotes for Seattle -2.5, so have went with a smaller stake and taken an extra run at almost 4/1
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting
Another 9th inning debacle, this time at PNC Park, costs us a profitable night 27-43-2 Staked 237.5pts Returned 257.47pts P/L +19.97ptsPirates (-1.5) to bt Cubs - 5pts @ 2.45 Bet365 Pirates (-2.5) to bt Cubs - 2pts @ 3.50 Bet365 Braves (ml) to bt Mets - 4pts @ 2.35 Bet365 Braves (-2.5) to bt Mets - 1pts @ 4.65 -
Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Pirates (-1.5) to bt Cubs - 5pts @ 2.45 Bet365 Pirates (-2.5) to bt Cubs - 2pts @ 3.50 Bet365 Liriano v Wood on the mound tonight, and the edge has to be given to Liriano who is holding the Cub batters to just .172 in their previous 93 ABs against him. The Pirates batters boast a much better figure of .281 in 139 ABs facing Wood. Braves (ml) to bt Mets - 4pts @ 2.35 Bet365 Braves (-2.5) to bt Mets - 1pts @ 4.65 The Mets are off to a fast start, and boast the last remaining unbeaten home record. They're big favourites to maintain that honour against the Braves tonight, but I'm siding with the dogs. Current Braves batters have seen plenty of Niese before, and show a not inconsiderable .325 batting average against him, with 50 hits from 154 ABs. Mets batters haven't faced Cahill nearly as much, but are hitting just .214 from the 56 ABs they do collectively have. Sent from my SM-A500FU using PL Forum
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting
Good night, other than the Royals tacking on 3 insurance runs in the bottom of the 8th! 27-39-2 Staked 225.5pts Returned 257.47pts P/L +31.97ptsCubs (-1.5) to bt Pirates - 5.1pts @ 2.80 Bet365 Cubs (-2.5) to bt Pirates - 2pts @ 4.00 Bet365 Twins/Royals - Under 8 runs - 4.4pts @ 1.91 Bet365 Twins/Royals - Under 6 runs - 1.5pts @ 3.30 Bet365 Padres (-1.5) to bt Rockies - 4pts @ 2.65 Bet365 Padres (-2.5) to bt Rockies - 1.5pts @ 3.50 Bet365 -
Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting
7 runs :eyes 23-38-1 Staked 207pts Returned 215.04pts P/L +8.04pts Cubs (-1.5) to bt Pirates - 5.1pts @ 2.80 Bet365 Cubs (-2.5) to bt Pirates - 2pts @ 4.00 Bet365 Cubs face AJ Burnett tonight and their batters have had success against him previously. Potential starters tonight are hitting .395 against him in 76 ABs. Pitching for the Cubs will be Arrieta, and he has current Pirates hitting just .190 against him. Twins/Royals - Under 8 runs - 4.4pts @ 1.91 Bet365 Twins/Royals - Under 6 runs - 1.5pts @ 3.30 Bet365 Kansas City look to return to baseball at home to the Twins, after their 3-game UFC series against Oakland, but can't be happy at facing a pitcher who excels against them, and only against them! We won last week when we took Kyle Gibson's Twins to beat Edison Volquez's Royals, but this week, given Gibson's ridiculous 4-0 1.38 ERA against the Royals and the fact the Twins hit just .171 in 41 ABs against Volquez, I'm taking there to be a shortage of runs Padres (-1.5) to bt Rockies - 4pts @ 2.65 Bet365 Padres (-2.5) to bt Rockies - 1.5pts @ 3.50 Bet365 The Padres are another side whose batters have had some good success when previously facing the pitcher they do so tonight. Over a good sample size of 133 ABs, the Padres are hitting a very healthy .388 against him. De La Rosa has an excellent record both at Coors and against the Padres, but as Dan has said in previous write-ups - this Padres lineup is not like previous Padres lineups! Despaigne, on the hill for the Padres, had an excellent first appearance of the season, and was similarly excellent in his only career meeting with the Rockies - K'ing 8 in 7 innings of no-run ball.Rockies/Dodgers - Over 8 runs - 5pts @ 2.00 Bet365 Rockies/Dodgers - Over 10 runs - 2pts @ 3.30 Bet365 -
Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting
Let's do some figures early, and get it back in profit ;) Still the runs bet at Dodger Stadium to come, though at 0-2 after 4 it's looking bleak 23-36-1 Staked 200pts Returned 215.04pts P/L +15.04ptsTigers (-1.5) to bt White Sox - 5pts @ 2.40 Bet365 Tigers (-2.5) to bt White Sox - 2pts @ 3.50 Bet365 Tigers (-3.5) to bt White Sox - 1pt @ 4.90 Bet365 Rockies/Dodgers - Over 8 runs - 5pts @ 2.00 Bet365 Rockies/Dodgers - Over 10 runs - 2pts @ 3.30 Bet365 Yankees (-1.5) to beat Rays - 5pts @ 2.30 Bet365 Yankees (-2.5) to beat Rays - 2pts @ 3.20 Bet365 Yankees (-3.5) to beat Rays - 1pt @ 4.65 Bet365 -
Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Err yeah, see - my brain is frazzled ;)
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Tigers (-1.5) to bt White Sox - 5pts @ 2.40 Bet365 Tigers (-2.5) to bt White Sox - 2pts @ 3.50 Bet365 Tigers (-3.5) to bt White Sox - 1pt @ 4.90 Bet365 Detroit's offense has been scuffling for production over the last week, but the chance to face Quintana on the mound should be just what they need to break out of their malaise. Even though they have plated just 8 runs in their last 4 games, they have still gone 3-1 during that spell so confidence shouldn't be an issue. A good few of their hitters have had success when facing Quintana in the past - Cabrera hits .350 and has a HR, VMart hits .389, Rajai is .385 with a HR, whilst, over a smaller sample, Cespedes is 4-6 with 2 homers and 3 RBIs. Will put the reasoning in for the following ones when I get back Rockies/Dodgers - Over 8 runs - 5pts @ 2.00 Bet365 Rockies/Dodgers - Over 10 runs - 2pts @ 3.30 Bet365 Taking the runs in this one, where both the pitchers have struggled in their previous encounters with the batters from their opponents tonight. The Rockies in particular, from a larger sample size, are hitting .414 in 87 ABs against McCarthy. Those Dodgers who have faced Butler are similarly seeing him well, hitting .375 from 24 ABs. Yankees (-1.5) to beat Rays - 5pts @ 2.30 Bet365 Yankees (-2.5) to beat Rays - 2pts @ 3.20 Bet365 Yankees (-3.5) to beat Rays - 1pt @ 4.65 Bet365 For all we expected this ageing, cobbled together, NYY offense to struggle to muster the necessary offense, the truth is they're actually doing a pretty good job. Since scoring just 1 run on Opening Day against Toronto, they've added 58 in their next 10 games to sit 5th overall in the majors for runs scored. Facing NYY tonight will be Matt Andriese, who will be making his 2nd career start. Probably only the #8 or #9 pitcher on the Rays, a glut of injuries will see him in action. He pitched 3.2 innings against Toronto five days ago, and he will likely need to go longer and pitch very well if he is to keep his side in with a shout, as his batters have not had much success when they have faced Pineda previously - hitting just .162 against him.
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting
I think stunned is the word, well - one of the words! 0-5 last night on a night where I should (in my biased opinion) have gone 5-0, and been 54.67pts better off :puke So the White Sox smash the Tigers and Sale whiffs 6... when we needed 7! Braves, who we had on the moneyline, led 4-0 going into the bottom of the 7th, conceded runs in the 7th and 8th and ended up losing in extra innings. Both the Cubs (6-2) and the Mets (5-1), who we had on the -1.5 line, led by FOUR runs entering the ninth inning, and both ended up winning by just 1 run. Whilst on the whingepath - Bristol City's 95th minute (!) penalty cost me a 38pt return on my football acca, and... :lol ... I had an nba double to return 29pts on the first 2 playoff matches last night, the Wizards leg won meaning I needed the Pelicans to cover a +11.5 line and for there to be under 204.5pts.... they lost 99-106 :/ A 122pt swing justifies a moan, yeah? :lol :sad A pretty sickening day all told. Bounce back today? 19-34-1 Staked 184pts Returned 179.64pts P/L -4.36ptsSale 7+ Ks & White Sox to bt Tigers - 4pts @ 3.60 Paddy Braves (ml) to bt Blue Jays - 4pts @ 2.55 Coral Mets (-1.5) to bt Marlins - 4pts @ 2.60 Bet365 Cubs (-1.5) to bt Padres - 3pts @ 2.85 Bet365 1.5pt double @ 7.41 Bet365 -
Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting
19-29-1 Staked 168pts Returned 179.64pts P/L +11.64pts Sale 7+ Ks & White Sox to bt Tigers - 4pts @ 3.60 Paddy Dan's stole my thunder with this one :) I don't disagree with anything he says Braves (ml) to bt Blue Jays - 4pts @ 2.55 Coral Admittedly, Wood has only tossed 1 inning in relief against the Blue Jays, and tonight's Jays starters only have 5 starts combined against him (they are 0-5 fwiw), but the Braves have a good record against RA Dickey and that makes them appealing at over 6/4. Tonight's Braves starters are 38-125 (.304) against Dickey, and Dickey's record over the last 3 seasons against Atlanta is 1-2 from 4 starts with a whopping 8.86 ERA Mets (-1.5) to bt Marlins - 4pts @ 2.60 Bet365 Cubs (-1.5) to bt Padres - 3pts @ 2.85 Bet365 1.5pt double @ 7.41 Bet365Brewers (ml) to bt Pirates - 5.5pts @ 2.10 Boylesports Brewers (-2.5) to bt Pirates - 1.5pts @ 4.10 Bet365 Brewers (-3.5) to bt Pirates - 1pt @ 5.75 Bet365 -
Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Apologies for lateness - been out tonight and got a new phone today, so don't have any apps downloaded yet. Only one I want tonight is Brewers (ml) to bt Pirates - 5.5pts @ 2.10 Boylesports Brewers (-2.5) to bt Pirates - 1.5pts @ 4.10 Bet365 Brewers (-3.5) to bt Pirates - 1pt @ 5.75 Bet365 Loving the chance to take somebody against Worley as a dog, loving it even more that it is Jimmy Nelson. He figured in Tristan Cockroft's pre-season 'Kings of Command' article, which served to highlight maybe unheralded pitchers, who were underrated. He showed he deserves more recognition in his first start of the season, and is easily worth backing as a dog opposing Vance Worley and a sputtering Pitt offense.
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting
Good to wake up to those results this morning! 19-26-1 Staked 160pts Returned 179.64pts P/L +19.64ptsBlue Jays (ml) to bt Rays - 6pts @ 1.77 Bet365 Blue Jays (-2.5) to bt Rays - 2pts @ 3.60 Bet365 Twins (ml) to bt Royals - 4.5pts @ 2.05 Bet365 Twins (-1.5) to bt Royals - 1.5pts @ 3.20 Bet365 Cardinals to win & under 7.5 runs total - 3.5pts @ 2.88 Paddy Cardinals (-1.5) & under 7.5 runs total - 1.5pts @ 4.50 Paddy -
Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Just stuck my bets on but away from the computer atm. Will get on to fill in reasoning in half hour. Blue Jays (ml) to bt Rays - 6pts @ 1.77 Bet365 Blue Jays (-2.5) to bt Rays - 2pts @ 3.60 Bet365 Dan's highlighted Erasmo's record, and whilst I don't share his mancrush on the Buehrle one I do think he looks massively favoured to come out on top in a clash with Ramirez, backed by the offense, however misfiring they've been, he is. Buehrle was 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA through 6 starts against the Rays last season, and can top a pitcher who ceded 2 runs in 2 innings pitched in relief against Toronto last seaosn Twins (ml) to bt Royals - 4.5pts @ 2.05 Bet365 Twins (-1.5) to bt Royals - 1.5pts @ 3.20 Bet365 The Royals bring their 1.000 record into a game in which things look like they can just be starting to go against them. They lost Alex Rios on Monday, with a fractured hand, and their .329 team batting average is going to be tested today by a pitcher who hasn't enjoyed success against many teams - but has against KC. Kyle Gibson has a career ERA of over 5, but has faced the Royals on 3 occasions, won all of them, and boasts an ERA of 1.40! Cardinals to win & under 7.5 runs total - 3.5pts @ 2.88 Paddy Cardinals (-1.5) & under 7.5 runs total - 1.5pts @ 4.50 Paddy These subpar offenses face pitchers who had their way with them last season, and should make for a low total of runs scored tonight. I'm siding with the home side to bounce back from last night's defeat and beat Peralta as they did during his first 2 seasons in the league. Peralta had a low 2.18 ERA against St Louis last season, but even that isn't as good as Lance Lynn's 1.80 ERA through 4 starts against the Brew. Sent from my GT-I9300 using PL Forum
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting
Dan, your Sox suck! Left 2 on base in the 8th, then got the first 2 on base in the 9th and couldn't score any! PfftWhite Sox / Indians - Over 7 runs - 6pts @ 1.74 Bet365 White Sox / Indians - Over 8.5 runs - 2pts @ 2.50 Bet365
13-26-1 Staked 141pts Returned 130.96pts P/L -10.04ptsMarlins (ml) to bt Braves - 6pts @ 1.77 Bet365 Marlins (-2.5) to bt Braves - 2pts @ 3.25 Bet365 -
Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Marlins (ml) to bt Braves - 6pts @ 1.77 Bet365 Marlins (-2.5) to bt Braves - 2pts @ 3.25 Bet365 Batter v pitcher matchups show that tonight's Braves are batting 0.216 over 51 ABs against Haren, whilst tonight's Marlins are batting 0.345 over 55 ABs against Stults. To further increase the confidence in a Miami win, Haren boasts a very impressive record against Atlanta over the last 3 seasons, with a 2-0 record from 3 starts and he also worked the save from his only save opportunity against them. All told he's pitched 21 innings for an ERA of just 1.71. Stults on the other hand has a similar amount of innings pitched (20 in his case) but an altogether differnent set of figures as he has managed to accrue an ERA of 5.85 in 4 starts over the last 3 years against the Marlins
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting White Sox / Indians - Over 7 runs - 6pts @ 1.74 Bet365 White Sox / Indians - Over 8.5 runs - 2pts @ 2.50 Bet365 A pair of pitchers facing off in this game who sketchy records when facing tonight's opposition. Bauer's record against the Sox and the Sox hitters is drawn from a small sample of just 2 starts against them, and just 7 ABs against the hitters, but it doesn't make pretty reading. Those in tonight's Sox lineup to have faced Bauer before are batting 0.714 against him, and Bauer has a 6.14 ERA in his 2 starts against the White Sox. Danks' history with the Indians can be traced much further, obviously given he is older and been in the majors longer. In his last 9 starts over the last 3 seasons against the Indians, Danks shows a 5.53 ERA. Those in tonight's Indians lineup who have faced him before (8 of them) combine for a batting average of 0.318, and that is over 129 ABs. Ryan Raburn in particular hits .333 against him with 3 HRs and 11 RBIs from 42 ABs.
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting
11-24-1 Staked 125pts Returned 113.84pts P/L -11.16ptsTigers/Pirates - over 7.5 runs - 5.5pts @ 1.91 Bet365 Mets (-1.5) to bt Phillies - 5pts @ 2.05 Bet365 Mets (-3.5) to bt Phillies - 1.5pts @ 4.35 Bet365 Orioles - over 4 runs v Yankees - 6pts @ 2.10 Paddy -
Re: NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15
The first team played as normal, which I still say wasn't the right thing to do lol. Celtics are now locked into the #7 seed and are going to rest players in their last game on Wednesday. As it is it took a very much true to the form of my record in this thread off-balance fade away 20-foot jumper from the very right hand corner with 0.8 seconds left to win it for Boston :lol :eyes 73-99-1 Staked 871.35pts Returns 802.29pts P/L ... -69.06ptsRaptors (ml) to bt Celtics - 7.7pts @ 1.91 Boylesports Raptors (-5) to bt Celtics - 3pts @ 2.55 Bet365 -
Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting
How about in his first at-bat? That soon enough for you? :loon :clap :clap 8th & 9th inning runs for the Phillies sink my Mets bets and turn a break even night into a losing one, as the Tigers again don't start VMart (I obviously know nada :lol), and the Orioles stop at 4 for a push. Will update figures at a reasonable hour Sent from my GT-I9300 using PL Forum1 pts Adam Jones to hit a home run and Baltimore Orioles to bt New York Yankees 11.00 -
Re: NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15 Raptors (ml) to bt Celtics - 7.7pts @ 1.91 Boylesports Raptors (-5) to bt Celtics - 3pts @ 2.55 Bet365 Toronto have to more to gain from winning this game than Boston do. The Raptors will see it as a must-win in their quest to wrest the #3 seed away from the Bulls (if they finish with same record then Raptors get the #3 seed courtesy of winning their division!), whereas the Celtics have just clinched a playoff spot, and have just 2 games left to freshen their main players' legs before the meaningful games start again. Brad Stevens has said it will be business as usual, but with all due respect I just don't believe him. He's performed a great job with little (playing) resources in his short time in the job, he is very astute and clever, and he will also know that his is a very young team, many of whom are about to embark on their first taste of post-season basketball. They've played a lot of games, and it is, in my opinion, crucial that they get a break - even if that means just playing 16-20 minutes in both of the remaining games. That shouldn't be enough to trouble a motivated and talented Raptors side who need to win
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Tigers/Pirates - over 7.5 runs - 5.5pts @ 1.91 Bet365 My reasoning stands from yesterday... because I got it wrong yesterday - VMart didn't play, he came on and pinch hit late on - and I am convinced they're going to play him at 1B during this series (before last night, I reckoned for 2 out of the 3!) Mets (-1.5) to bt Phillies - 5pts @ 2.05 Bet365 Mets (-3.5) to bt Phillies - 1.5pts @ 4.35 Bet365 Again, my reasoning from yesterday stands. I had these games highlighted for bets once I saw the starters last week. Again the Phillies have a RHP in Buchanan for the Mets lefties to try and feast on, and again the Mets have a stud on the mound. Orioles - over 4 runs v Yankees - 6pts @ 2.10 Paddy Baltimore love playing at Camden Yards, their offense seems to rarely misfire when they're at home, and this season already they have scored 12, 7, 10 & 6 runs in their 4 games. CC Sabathia faces them tonight and he had been in decline for a good year+ even before his injury last season.
MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting
in MLB & Baseball Predictions
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Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting
0.5pt returned from this 29-52-2 Staked 278.5pts Returned 286.65pts P/L +8.15pts