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Samba_SamPa

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  1. Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Most likely wins 1 White Sox to bt Orioles (game 1) 2 Indians to bt Mariners Value moneyline plays White Sox to bt Orioles @ 20/27 [27*] errr, big value? Surely skewed by it being Wilson's first start Braves to bt Giants @ 6/5 [11*] Indians to bt Mariners @ 5/6 [9*] Yankees to bt Athletics @ 5/6 [6*] Red Sox to bt Rangers @ 20/23 [3*] Angels to bt Tigers @ 10/13 [3*] Most likely to go to Extra innings 1 Pirates @ Padres

  2. Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Apologies in advance for the clusterfuck of hypothesising that's going to follow. I'm trying to establish a system whereby I can price up my own tissue for the games, so this is just what I've churned out for tonight. My actual bets at the end. This is very much version 1.01 though! 5 Most likely wins 1= Indians (v Rangers) 1= Pirates (v Marlins) 3= Nationals (v Cubs) 3= Brewers (v Giants) 5= Mariners (v Rays) 5= Yankees (v Chiefs) Value moneyline plays (with value rated in *s - the more *s the better the value NOT the more the chance of winning) Nationals to bt Cubs @ 20/23 [13*] Braves to bt Dodgers @ 7/4 [13*] Brewers to bt Giants @ 4/5 [11*] Indians to bt Rangers @ 5/8 [8*] Diamondbacks to bt Cardinals @ 31/20 [7*] Mariners to bt Rays @ 10/13 [6*] Rockies to bt Reds @ 7/5 [4*] Yankees to bt Chiefs @ 20/29 [3*] Red Sox to bt Twins @ 20/23 [2*] Pirates to bt Marlins @ 10/21 [1*] 3 Most likely high scoring teams 1 Brewers (v Giants) 2 Pirates (v Marlins) 3 Indians (v Rangers) 3 Most likely to go to Extra Innings 1 Astros @ Orioles 2 Braves @ Dodgers 3 White Sox @ Blue Jays ---------- I've missed the Indians game starting, thought the earliest game was 18:10 not 17:10 :( I'm going to see how it goes for a week or so, see what tweaks I can make to improve it, so stakes will be kept to just 2 or 3pts a day for interest on a longshot acca or two Bets for tonight Pirates (-2.5), Brewers (-1.5) & Nationals (-1.5) - 1pt treble @ 20.31 Bet365 Braves (ml), Dbacks (ml) & Rockies (ml) - 1pt treble @ 16.82 Bet365 :hope

  3. Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting

    Mets (-1.5) to bt Phillies - 8.5pts @ 2.15 Bet365 Mets (-2.5) to bt Phillies - 3.25pts @ 3.10 Bet365 Mets (-4.5) to bt Phillies - 2pts @ 5.25 Bet365 1.25pt ml acca - Mets, Dodgers, Angels, Reds, Indians, Tigers, Giants, Blue Jays - @ 46.55 Bet365 :hope
    I really must stop staying up to watch my shitty luck unfolding. Not because my being asleep would make things happen differently, but because going to sleep at 4am completely screws me for the next day. Need to put any bet(s) on and just check scores in the morning. As for last night, the Mets and DeGrom cruised through 22 outs, before he left the game 3-0 up with 1 out and 2 on. Within 4 pitches of handing it over to the pen it was 3-4 to Phillies :eyes :spank
  4. Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting

    Some big names take to the mounds around the league tonight!! None bigger than my boy Jacob, who has a home game against Jerome Williams and the Phillies. DeGrom allowed a single to Matt Carpenter with 1 out in the 1st inning last time against the Cards. He then retired the next 23 batters he faced, and comes into this game in sight of the franchise record of 28. The Cards game was his 6th quality start out of 9 this season, and tonight he faces a Phillies offense that ranks 29th in the majors and bottom in the NL. The Mets aren't very likely to bound out and blow a team away - they have the 3rd to bottom offense in the NL - but did put up 6 runs last night, and face Jerome Williams who took the L in a 6-1 Mets win 5 weeks ago. Williams shows an ERA of 8.38 through 4 road games this season, and with De Grom's stellar home performances (10-1, 1.19 ERA, in his last 12 home starts) I'm inclined to take some generous looking handicap prices. Mets (-1.5) to bt Phillies - 8.5pts @ 2.15 Bet365 Mets (-2.5) to bt Phillies - 3.25pts @ 3.10 Bet365 Mets (-4.5) to bt Phillies - 2pts @ 5.25 Bet365 I've also got a :hope acca on to a small stake as there's so many good looking pitching matchups 1.25pt ml acca - Mets, Dodgers, Angels, Reds, Indians, Tigers, Giants, Blue Jays - @ 46.55 Bet365 :hope Good luck those who are playing tonight
    to correct something. Mets -4.5 is 21/4 or 6.25. Not 5.25 :hope
  5. Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Some big names take to the mounds around the league tonight!! None bigger than my boy Jacob, who has a home game against Jerome Williams and the Phillies. DeGrom allowed a single to Matt Carpenter with 1 out in the 1st inning last time against the Cards. He then retired the next 23 batters he faced, and comes into this game in sight of the franchise record of 28. The Cards game was his 6th quality start out of 9 this season, and tonight he faces a Phillies offense that ranks 29th in the majors and bottom in the NL. The Mets aren't very likely to bound out and blow a team away - they have the 3rd to bottom offense in the NL - but did put up 6 runs last night, and face Jerome Williams who took the L in a 6-1 Mets win 5 weeks ago. Williams shows an ERA of 8.38 through 4 road games this season, and with De Grom's stellar home performances (10-1, 1.19 ERA, in his last 12 home starts) I'm inclined to take some generous looking handicap prices. Mets (-1.5) to bt Phillies - 8.5pts @ 2.15 Bet365 Mets (-2.5) to bt Phillies - 3.25pts @ 3.10 Bet365 Mets (-4.5) to bt Phillies - 2pts @ 5.25 Bet365 I've also got a :hope acca on to a small stake as there's so many good looking pitching matchups 1.25pt ml acca - Mets, Dodgers, Angels, Reds, Indians, Tigers, Giants, Blue Jays - @ 46.55 Bet365 :hope Good luck those who are playing tonight

  6. Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting

    Giants (ml) & Nationals (-1.5) - 6pts @ 3.42 Bet365 Giants (-1.5) & Nationals (-2.5) - 2pts @ 5.75 Bet365
    Close again. We got 3/4 of the pitching we needed - but O'Sullivan tossed well to restrict the Nats to just a 1-run win 46-107-2 Staked 578pts Returned 539.21pts P/L -39.79pts
  7. Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Giants (ml) & Nationals (-1.5) - 6pts @ 3.42 Bet365 Giants (-1.5) & Nationals (-2.5) - 2pts @ 5.75 Bet365 The return of Pence has provided the Giants with a lift, and they come in to this series having swept the light hitting Dodgers in LA. They have Vogelsong on the mound who is 2-0 through his last 3 with just 3 earned runs conceded in an out short of 20 innings. He had an ugly start to the season but has turned it around in those 3 most recent outings. Opposing him for the Rox will be thread 'favourite' Kyle Kendrick, who has really struggled in his 2 starts in the Colorado air this season, going for 12 ERs in 12 innings pitched. In Washington it's the 3rd Scherzer v O'Sullivan clash of the season already. Scherzer is showing a 1.29 ERA in those games on 2 ERs in 14 innings pitched, whilst O'Sullivan's ERA is 4.91 on 6 ERs in 11 IP. Scherzer can boast 17 Ks to just 2 BBs, whilst O'Sullivan's ration stands at 7:3. The game at Nationals Park was the worst of the 2 for O'Sullivan as he gave up 4 earned runs in 5 innings of a 2-7 defeat. And both those games came whilst the Nationals were scuffling to find their form - whereas they've since surged to the top of the NL East standings on the back of a 17-4 run.

  8. Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting

    Pirates/Cubs - Under 10.5 runs - 7pts @ 1.87 Bet365 Pirates/Cubs - Under 9 runs - 3pts @ 2.60 Bet365 Pirates/Cubs - Neither to 4 runs - 2pts @ 9.00 Bet365 Pirates/Cubs - Neither to 2 runs - 1pt @ 67 Bet365
    So near, yet... Make that 8 ERs in 8 starts for Burnett now! The Pirates were supporting him with the required single run of offense all the way until the 8th inning when a pair of 2-out RBI doubles made it 3-0 to sink the 66/1 shot. 46-105-2 Staked 570pts Returned 539.21pts P/L -31.79pts
  9. Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Pirates/Cubs - Under 10.5 runs - 7pts @ 1.87 Bet365 Pirates/Cubs - Under 9 runs - 3pts @ 2.60 Bet365 Pirates/Cubs - Neither to 4 runs - 2pts @ 9.00 Bet365 Pirates/Cubs - Neither to 2 runs - 1pt @ 67 Bet365 I just simply don't understand this line one bit. If it had been 7.5 I wouldn't have batted an eyelid, so to be 10.5... ?!?! Clearly my judgement is haywire, as evidenced by my Bet365 account, but I feel I can't not jump on a line I believe to be so wrong! I have AJ Burnett in my fantasy roster so am more aware of his performances than I would otherwise have been - but he has been hit for just 8 earned runs in 7 starts!!! He has an ERA of 1.60! Whilst the Pirates have provided him with so little run support his record is only 2-1, he had a run of 3 games where he gave up just 1 ER in each game, and went 0-1 through the three games!

  10. Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Bookkeeping is hard when there's so much red paint needed

    Pirates/Cubs Under 7 runs - 5pts @ 2.60 Bet365 Pirates/Cubs - neither team to 4 runs - 2pts @ 4.50 Bet365 Pirates/Cubs - neither team to 2 runs - 1pt @ 34 Bet365.
    Should have stopped here, despite the Pirates pen dishing out walks like they were candy and gifting the Cubs another pair of runs to spoil the middle bet
    Dbacks (-1.5) to bt Phillies - 5pts @ 2.55 Bet365 Dbacks (-3.5) to bt Phillies - 1.5pts @ 5.00 Bet365 Orioles (-1.5) to bt Angels - 6pts @ 2.55 Bet365 Orioles (-3.5) to bt Angels - 2pts @ 5.00 Bet365 Athletics (-1.5) to bt White Sox - 6pts @ 2.35 Bet365 Athletics (-3.5) to bt White Sox - 2pts @ 5.00 Bet365 Dbacks - Orioles - Athletics - Dodgers ml acca - 2.5pts @ 8.15 Bet365
    Backing the 4 opponents in the acca would have made for a nice return!! 43-104-2 Staked 557pts Returned 500.32pts P/L -56.68pts
  11. Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Dbacks (-1.5) to bt Phillies - 5pts @ 2.55 Bet365 Dbacks (-3.5) to bt Phillies - 1.5pts @ 5.00 Bet365 Arizona get Bradley back on the mound tonight with his sub-2 ERA, and backed by an offense that can put runs on the board - they've scored at least 5 in 7 of their last 10 outings. Trying to keep the Dbacks offense quiet will be Jerome Williams, and he has given up at least 3 runs per game in being hit for a total of 15 in 21 innings over his last 4 starts. Orioles (-1.5) to bt Angels - 6pts @ 2.55 Bet365 Orioles (-3.5) to bt Angels - 2pts @ 5.00 Bet365 Ubaldo Jimenez gets the ball for Baltimore looking to continue his 100% record at Camden Yards. 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA over 21 strong innings. He could get plenty of help from his offense who get to face Shoemaker of the Angels. Shoemaker comes in with a whopping 6.61 ERA, hasn't given up less than 3 ERs in any of his 6 starts this season, and was shelled for 6 in just 3 innings last time out against the Astros. Athletics (-1.5) to bt White Sox - 6pts @ 2.35 Bet365 Athletics (-3.5) to bt White Sox - 2pts @ 5.00 Bet365 Two pitchers facing each other who have identical W-L records at 1-3, but Danks' ERAs is exactly double that of Chavez's. I've actually watched Chavez's last 2 starts - a win in Minnesota and a loss in Seattle - and even in losing to King Felix and the Mariners last time I was quite impressed. He K'd 14 and walked just 2 in the 14 innings I watched, allowing just 12 baserunners. Danks earned the W last time against the Reds, but lasted just 7 outs the time before against a Twins offense that Chavez would dominate just 2 days later. Dbacks - Orioles - Athletics - Dodgers ml acca - 2.5pts @ 8.15 Bet365

  12. Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Loads I like tonight :unsure Pirates/Cubs Under 7 runs - 5pts @ 2.60 Bet365 Pirates/Cubs - neither team to 4 runs - 2pts @ 4.50 Bet365 Pirates/Cubs - neither team to 2 runs - 1pt @ 34 Bet365 Gerrit Cole is enjoying a solid start to the season, being 5-1 after 7 starts for an ERA of 2.32. He's ceded just 11 ERs in over 42 innings, and never more than 3 in a game. His strikeout rate is up, and that should continue tonight against a Cubs side that whiffs more than any other in the majors this season. Jon Lester meanwhile got off to a slow start to his Cubs career, but seems to be past his usual April blues and be settling into his new confines. With 4 ERs given up over his last 3 starts - all wins - over 20 innings, he'll be approaching the form and control that he brings as the season goes on and games get more important. These are 2 good pitchers up tonight, and runs could be at a premium.

  13. Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting

    Yankees & Dodgers ml double - 8.5pts @ 2.57 Bet365 Nats/Padres Under 7 & Giants/Reds Under 7 - 4pt double @ 3.30 Yankees/Rays - over 1.5 1st inning runs - 2.5pts @ 3.6 Bet365 Yankees - over 0.5 1st inning runs - 2.5pts @ 3.65 Bet365
    I feel like I am subconsciously diametrically opposed to ever getting in the black! Fall back down, build back up, fall back down, build back up... Onwards and upwards 42-95-2 Staked 524pts Returned 487.32pts P/L -36.68pts
  14. Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Yankees & Dodgers ml double - 8.5pts @ 2.57 Bet365 Nats/Padres Under 7 & Giants/Reds Under 7 - 4pt double @ 3.30 Yankees/Rays - over 1.5 1st inning runs - 2.5pts @ 3.6 Bet365 Yankees - over 0.5 1st inning runs - 2.5pts @ 3.65 Bet365 The Yankees have crossed home plate in the top of the 1st at least once in the first 3 of this set in Tampa, and tonight get to face Ramirez - a pitcher without a win in over 13 months. You have to go back to April Fools Day 2014 for Ramirez's last win, and he has gone 0-7 in 15 starts since then for an ERA of over 6. The top of the Yankees order have gotten off to quick starts in this series so far, and the presence of Ramirez on the mound shouldn't adversely affect them. Chase Whitley gets the ball for New York, and he allowed just 1 run in 5 innings on his season debut against these Rays. He also held the powerful Blue Jays offense to a 7 inning shutout on his next start. The Dodgers have Brett Anderson on the hill, who is coming into this one on the back of throwing 5 innings of no-run ball in the hitter friendly of Coors Field. Back in LA, against the same opposition - a team who have lost their 9 games at Dodger Park, averaging only 2.6 runs per game - it's fair to expect another quality start. Opposing him will be a pitcher making his first major league start in 20 months. Chad Bettis has posted an ERA of almost 4 at Triple-A level so far this season, having went for over a run an inning in relief last season. I'm expecting 4 strong pitching performances in the 2 games I have going under 7 runs. Fister and Ross square off in San Diego, with Fister having thrown 2 shutouts in 3 away games so far this season, and threw a complete game in a 0-1 defeat on his last start against the Padres. Ross has tightened up on his location over his last 3 starts after issuing 16 walks in 22.2 innings through his first 4. He's allowed just 4 runs in 13 innings over his last 2 starts, and could reasonably have hoped for a better looking record than 1-3 if he had received more by way of run support from his offense. He hasn't however, receiving just 4 runs in support through his 3 losing decisions. Providing both pitchers perform as they can, this should be a tight low-scoring game. In Cincinatti we have Johnny Cueto and Tim Lincecum on the hill. Cueto has yielded just 3 runs - all to solo homers - in 22 innings over his 3 home games this season, yet due to the oft-anaemic Reds offense that has only been good enough for a 1-1 record for him. Lincecum has shutouts in half of his 6 starts, including his most recent two, and has ceded just 8 runs total in 36 innings this season. Both offenses are tough to trust to deliver runs, and with a pair of hot starters getting the ball this is another I envisage going to the wire in a low-scorer. Good luck anybody playing anything :cheers

  15. Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting

    Pirates x Nationals ml double - 11pts @ 2.71 Bet365 Highest scoring team tonight - Nationals - 1pt @ 15.00 Bet365 Highest scoring team tonight - Angels - 1pt @ 17.00 Bet365 0.3pt yankee, 0.2pt acca - Pirates -4.5 @ 5.00, Nationals -4.5 @ 5.50, Tigers -3.5 @ 4.65, Angels -3.5 @ 4.00 - 3.5pts total stake with Bet365
    Last night's lesson - finish the write-up THEN place the bet, don't place the bet then write-up. I hope I managed to put you off the Nats (whilst trying to explain why I was going for them!) - as I was writing the few lines on the pitchers I realised I'd placed the bet based on my feelings about Rubbish De La Rosa, rather than the merits of the actual game. Said as much to Dan - hoping I'd put any would-be betters off :$ Shame I didn't have the Nationals GAME as highest scoring, rather than the team 42-91-2 Staked 506.5pts Returned 487.32pts P/L -19.18pts
  16. Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting 2 big fancies tonight - Pirates and Nats - both with lovely looking pitching matchups. Pirates go with Burnett, who has been excellent this season - his ERA of 1.66 and never ceding more than 2 goals in a game across 6 starts deserving of so much more than a 1-1 record. They'll be facing the light hitting Phillies and Sean O'Sullivan. O'Sullivan has a career ERA of 5.87 and starts just his 3rd game of the season having been hit for 6 runs in 11 innings in 2 defeats (1 charged) to the Nationals. Washington have Strasburg on the mound, who is an excellent pitcher who hasn't been at the top of his game so far this season. He had his start bumped back to today to ensure he'd recovered from a minor niggle in his shoulder that cut short his most recent start v the Marlins. The big selling aspect to this game is the fact the Nats batters get to face Rubby De La Rosa. De La Rosa blanked the Padres in his last start, so I can understand reticence to follow - this is more based on my having watched him pitch for my Red Sox last season, seeing him fail to make it out the 6th inning in 6 of his last 7 starts, seeing him get shelled for 15 runs in 19 September innings, seeing him have a K:BB ratio of only just over 2... Others I like are the Tigers and the Angels, by taking we get to oppose Kyle Gibson and Kyle Kendrick, which is always a good plan! Pirates x Nationals ml double - 11pts @ 2.71 Bet365 Highest scoring team tonight - Nationals - 1pt @ 15.00 Bet365 Highest scoring team tonight - Angels - 1pt @ 17.00 Bet365 0.3pt yankee, 0.2pt acca - Pirates -4.5 @ 5.00, Nationals -4.5 @ 5.50, Tigers -3.5 @ 4.65, Angels -3.5 @ 4.00 - 3.5pts total stake with Bet365

  17. Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting

    Pirates x Dodgers ml double - 8pts @ 2.26 Bet365 Pirates -2.5 x Dodgers -2.5 double - 1.5pts @ 7.97 Bet365 Mets (ml) to bt Cubs - 5pts @ 2.30 Braves (ml) to bt Reds - 5pts @ 2.25 Bet365 Braves (-2.5) to bt Reds - 1.5pts @ 4.35 Bet365
    Braves/Reds - Neither to 4 runs - 3pts @ 4.75
    42-87-2 Staked 490pts Returned 487.32pts P/L -2.68pts
  18. Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Missed one off from the bottom game Braves/Reds - Neither to 4 runs - 3pts @ 4.75 Explained Miller's performances so far, and can't let Leake's last 2 games go without mention, going 8 innings of shutout ball in each of them. A 3-0 Braves win s'il vous plait :)

  19. Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting My most confident selections have already been taken by Dan, hopefully I don't curse them... Pirates x Dodgers ml double - 8pts @ 2.26 Bet365 Pirates -2.5 x Dodgers -2.5 double - 1.5pts @ 7.97 Bet365 Really like these pitching matchups with Cole against Williams and Greinke against much anybody never mind Koehler. 2 dogs I like tonight, and am opposing Dan with the first - as he would maybe have expected... Mets (ml) to bt Cubs - 5pts @ 2.30 I think 13/10 is real value for taking DeGrom against Lester. Don't think the extended lines are any value however, so sticking with the moneyline only. I accept Lester should be favoured, as the established ace, he's been there and delivered in October games - HOWEVER, he gets better as the season goes on. He'll be better post-allstar break than pre-, and then he'll be better again if the Cubs make it to October. I think this is a real good price to oppose him with somebody who I think very very highly of. De Grom the reigning NL ROTY, he bounced back and quietened the Orioles offense last time holding them to 1 ER and tossing 9 Ks to just the 1 walk. Braves (ml) to bt Reds - 5pts @ 2.25 Bet365 Braves (-2.5) to bt Reds - 1.5pts @ 4.35 Bet365 Hard to oppose Shelby Miller in his current vein of form. He is 4-1 for the season, showing an ERA of 1.66 and a WHIP under 1, and on his last start he pitched a complete game shut-out of the Phillies. He's coughed up only 7 runs all season, and never more than 2 in a game Good luck if you play anything tonight

  20. Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting

    Mets' date= Dodgers, Mariners ml treble - 5pts @ 4.17 Bet365
    Dodgers to win 1st inning - 3pts @ 3.75 Skybet Over 1.5 runs in 1st inning - YES! - 3pts @ 3.50 Skybet Dodgers (-1.5) to bt Rockies - 8pts @ 2.00 Skybet
    39-84-2 Staked 466pts Returned 443.74pts P/L -22.26pts
  21. Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting I've got a moneyline treble on - opposing pitchers in Billingsley and De La Rosa's case, and favouring pitchers in Kershaw and Felix's case. Will be back later for a couple of other bets in the Dodgers v Rockies game (aka Kershaw v DeLaRosa!!) Mets, Dodgers, Mariners ml treble - 5pts @ 4.17 Bet365

  22. Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting

    Reds (-1.5) to bt White Sox - 8pts @ 2.35 Bet365 Reds (-3.5) to bt White Sox - 2.5pts @ 4.90 Bet365 Reds to win 1st innings - 4pts @ 3.80 Bet365 Dodgers, Reds, Giants ml treble - 6pts @ 4.62 Bet365 Astros (-1.5) to bt Angels - 5pts @ 2.55 Bet365 Astros (-2.5) to bt Angels - 2pts @ 5.25 Bet365
    Expensive the Astros letting a 6-2 lead slip to a 6-5 win 37-82-2 Staked 447pts Returned 406.89pts P/L -40.11pts
  23. Re: MLB 2015 Season - Match Betting Kershaw v De La Rosa. Cueto v Noesi. There's 2 exciting matchups in my eyes. Noesi we fancied to get beaten by Marquis, so now facing Cueto... !!! De La Rosa, I don't rate by any stretch of the imagination, can't see him outduelling Kershaw. Bumgarner starts tonight for the Giants, and he has really brought his stuff in the last 3 starts. Add in my favourite of the season so far in Dallas Keuchel, and there's a lot I like tonight. Reds (-1.5) to bt White Sox - 8pts @ 2.35 Bet365 Reds (-3.5) to bt White Sox - 2.5pts @ 4.90 Bet365 Reds to win 1st innings - 4pts @ 3.80 Bet365 Dodgers, Reds, Giants ml treble - 6pts @ 4.62 Bet365 Astros (-1.5) to bt Angels - 5pts @ 2.55 Bet365 Astros (-1.5) to bt Angels - 2pts @ 5.25 Bet365 All the Reds plays are for Game 1 Fingers crossed my Bet365 balance looks a little healthier when I wake up in the morning, Good luck anybody playing

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